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E urope is entering demographic terra incognita. The imminent expansion of the European Union (EU) to Central and Eastern Europe provides a welcome opportunity to address the broader issues of Europe's current demographic metamorphosis and its likely future population structures, which already pose significant challenges to today's social and economic policies. The continent that was at the forefront of the demographic transition that has now reached almost every corner of the world is again entering a new phase in its demographic evolution. This phase is full of uncertainty, with no one able to say exactly how low fertility is likely to fall and how high life expectancy may still go. Previously unquestioned upper limits to life expectancy and lower limits to fertility now appear to be convenient assumptions without a solid scientific basis. Our limited knowledge about the longer-term demographic trends requires new approaches to systematically dealing with the uncertainty i...
Nowadays, many European countries are faced with the serious problem of ageing populations. The goal of this article is to highlight and identify these demographic trends through some indicators of population ageing in new member states of the European Union. Based on data from the United Nations (UN), their section “Population Division, Population Estimates and Projection Section” and the topic “World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision”, this paper considers some of the indicators of the ageing of the population in new member states of the EU. Statistical methods and mathematics evaluations are utilized to compare different parameters of age structure (e. g. ageing index, old age dependency ratio, potential support ratio and parental support). The ageing index was expressed as the percentage of the number of persons in 65 and over age group per 100 persons in 0-14 years old. Potential support ratio was obtained as the number of people in the working ages of 15-64 per every person 65 or older. Parental support is defined as the ratio of the number of persons in the age group of 85 years and older and the number of persons in the age group of 50-64. An old age dependency coefficient represents the number of people in 65 and over per 100 people in 15-64 years old. The forecast of research covers the period from 2015 to 2050. Proportions of the population will be examined, as well as their transformations in age categories: 65 and over, young-old (65-74), old-old (75-84) and oldest-old (85 and over). Results: As shown in the forecast from 2015 to 2050, the proportion of the productive population (20-64 years) dropped in new member states from 63.6 % in 2015 to 52.9 % in 2050 (medium variant). There are substantial regional differences across the new member states with respect to the share of the population of productive age. The decreasing proportions of youth and productive persons have been accompanied, in most European countries, by constant increases in the proportion of older persons. The proportion of the population in the age category young-old will increase from 9.1 percent in 2015 to 14.5 percent in 2050. This means that, by 2050, almost 14 million young-old retirees will require Medicare and Social Security in new member states of the EU. Key words: Population Dynamics European Union Forecasting Health Status Indicators Age Groups
Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series
Aging of the society: the European perspectivePopulation aging is a key risk for the future of Europe. Th e Old Continent has to face ever-stronger new demographic trends and fi nd eff ective strategies to address them. In this study, we evaluate the progress of population aging in Europe in the period of 2008–2021. Th e broad time span of our considerations concerns the years 1960–2100. We present our new typological approach to the areas of unbalanced age structure. Its classifi cation includes four groups of countries with various distribution of aging measures, i.e., the percentage of people aged 65 and over and the dynamics of its growth. We observe that the largest group is composed of countries exceeding arithmetic means for both above-mentioned aging measures, which are located mainly in Eastern and Southern Europe. According to stages of aging by median age, most of these countries reached the stage of very old population in the 1990s
Moravian Geographical Reports
A retrospective and prospective view of current and future population ageing in the European Union 28 countriesPopulation ageing in the EU28 is an important twenty-first century phenomenon, affecting virtually every aspect of life in these countries. The results of the latest EUROPOP2018 population forecast indicate that the rate of ageing is accelerating. The aim of this paper is to analyse the current level of population ageing in the EU28, identify spatial differences, and point to likely trends by the middle of this century. For these purposes, we have used a combination of conventional chronological indicators of population ageing and a set of new indicators based on prospective age that allows for a more comprehensive and realistic view of population ageing. We use multivariate statistical methods (factor and cluster analysis) to identify groups of countries with similar population ageing characteristics, using both a retrospective and prospective approach. We decompose changes in selected ageing indicators into the separate effects of changes in the population composition (children un...
Statistics in Focus 23/2011
The greying of the baby boomers - A century-long view of ageing in European populations2011 •
Population ageing is undoubtedly going to be a key demographic challenge in many European countries over the next fifty years. Its implications for socio-economic systems, such as public pensions programmes, health care or kinship structures, may be considerable. The latest Eurostat projections (Europop2010) show that, over the next 50 years, population ageing is likely to attain unprecedented levels in 31 European countries, though the magnitude, speed and timing are likely to vary. In fact, population ageing has been a reality for decades now. In some countries it may already have passed its peak speed over a one-century period to enter a slowdown phase; in others, the process may speed up noticeably over the coming decades.
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