Earthquake prediction; Principles

E.N.Khalilov
GLOBAL NETWORK FOR THE FORECASTING OF EARTHQUAKES – GNFE. INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM OF GEODYNAMICS MONITORING.
London, SWB, 2011, 38 p.
There has been described the positive experience of short-term forecasting of strong distanced earthquakes on the basis of long-period gravitational harbingers. The information presented is about the initial results of the operation of the Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes.
ISBN 978-9952-451-15-3

The authors consider the gravitational precursors of Mega Ear thquakes in Asia and Southeast Asia: Sichuan earthquake, M7.9, May 12, 2008; Andaman Islands earthquake, M7.5, August 10, 2009; Samoa Islands earthquake, M8.1, September 29, 2009; Northern Sumatra earthquake, M7.8, April 06,2010; Tohoku earthquake, M9, March 11, 2011.
All gravitational precursors were recorded using of ATROPATENA earthquake prediction stations. The creation of an international earthquake prediction system based on the results obtained is proposed. To monitor spatio-temporal variations of the gravitational
field, special detectors named ATROPATENA stations have been developed and made.
The detectors continuously measure the value of the gravitational constant G in mutually perpendicular directions and relative values of gravity Δg. Before and after the Mega Earthquakes in Asia and Southeast Asia, variations of the Earth’s gravitational field were
registered at large distances from the epicenter (near 8000 km); they were measured with the ATROPATENA stations in the following location: Baku (Azerbaijan) and Yogyakarta (Indonesia). Indications of the Cavendish balance when measuring the gravitational constant
G are influenced by spatio-temporal changes in external gravitational fields of geological origin, which alter over time indications of the true values of G. Measuring the true value of the gravitational constant G on the Earth’s surface with accuracy greater than the second digit after the decimal point is not possible due to the spatio-temporal variations of the gravitational field as a result of the impact of geodynamic processes.
For the first time, the true cause of variations of the recorded values of the gravitational constant G has been identified. These variations were the subject of scientific dispute throughout the last century.

The basic problem of geophysics in more precise prognosing earthquakes and volcanoes’
eruptions has for decades been the erroneous idea of the very self matter and
properties of the basic force of our Universe – the gravity force. This incorrect concept
and errors in description of the Earth’s interior resulting from it cause that the
astronomers see the motion of the planets as the motion in freefall.
The universality of free fall (UFF) asserts that a point test body, shielded from all
known interactions except gravity, has an acceleration that depends only on its location
[1].
Point test body is an intellectual auxiliary object in physical theories and does not exist
in the real universe. The whole momentum (impulse) of a real existing heterogeneous
celestial body needs to be calculated by integration of momentum of all its material
points dm=dV · ρ; dV - volume element, ρ- density . Therefore the whole momentum
'p' of a celestial body is vector sum of all momenta of all its parts of different densities:
p = dm1· v + dm2 · v + . . . dmn· v = dV1 · ρ1 · v + dV2 · ρ2 · v + . . . dVn · ρn · v;
p – momentum, v – velocity’ vector
Hence the direct conclusion that each change of velocity or motion’s direction of a
heterogeneous space object creates stresses in its interior between zones of different
density, caused by inertia. It means that transformation of coordinate system to such
where orbital centrifugal force does not exist is mathematically prohibited. Through
this transformation the whole information concerning the internal structure of the celestial
body and stress in its interior is lost.
Therefore both the Free Fall and the Universality of Free Fall are myths that need to be
rejected by physics as they block further development of geophysics and astronomy.
After rejecting these myths we have to simply state that in the real existing universe
the centripetal force always acts together with the centrifugal force. According to the
action-reaction basis, none of these forces acts separately. Every real existing object
of our universe becomes a centrifuge when rotating. No transformation of coordinate
system can change this fact. It means that the signals registered at the University of
Washington with the Eot Wash torsion balance apparatus have nothing to do with
the Equivalence Principle or other problems of cosmology. These signals show only
differences of orbital centrifugal force for test bodies of different density. Analysing
these signals in terms of cosmological problems is a waste of time for physics.

"The northern Adriatic plate underwent Permian-Mesozoic rifting and was later shortened by three orogenic belts (i.e., Apennines, Alps and Dinarides) developed along three independent subduction zones. The inherited Mesozoic horst and graben grain determined structural undulations of the three thrust belts. Salients developed in grabens or more shaly basins, whereas recesses formed regularly around horsts. A new interpretation of seismic reflection profiles, subsidence rates from stratigraphic analysis, and GPS data prove that the three orogens surrounding the northern Adriatic plate are still active. The NE-ward
migration of the Apennines subduction hinge determines the present-day faster subsidence rate in the western side of the northern Adriatic ([1 mm/year). This is recorded also by the SW-ward dip of the foreland regional monocline, and the SW-ward increase of the depth of the Tyrrhenian sedimentary layer, as well as the increase in thickness of the Pliocene and Pleistocene sediments. These data indicate the dominant influence of the Apennines subduction, which controls the asymmetric subsidence in the northern Adriatic realm. The Dinarides front has been tilted by the Apennines subduction hinge, as shown by the eroded Dalmatian anticlines subsiding in the eastern Adriatic Sea. GPS data suggest that southward tilting of the western and central Southern Alps, whereas the eastern Southern Alps are uplifting. The obtained strain rates are on average within 20 nstrain/year. The horizontal shortening obtained from GPS velocities at the front of the three belts surrounding the northern Adriatic plate are about 2–3 mm/year (Northern Apennines), 1–2 mm/year (Southern Alps), and\1 mm/year (Dinarides). The shortening directions tend to be perpendicular to the thrust belt fronts. The areas where the strain rate sharply decreases along a tectonic feature (e.g., the Ferrara salient, the Venetian foothills front) are proposed to be occupied by locked structures where stress is accumulating in the brittle layer and thus
seismically prone. Finally, we speculate that, since the effects of three independent subduction zones coexist and overlap in the same area, plate boundaries are passive features."

Ya’an Earthquake (Ms 7.0，April 20th, 2013) is another disastrous geological event along the Longmenshan earthquake fracture zone after 2008. This article reviews a successful medium-term prediction for the strong Earthquake. It also gives the reason for the prediction of the epicenter.
In the morning of November 25th, 2012, the Committee for Predicting Natural Disasters of Chinese Geophysical Society disscussed the Medium-Term earthquake prediction for the southwest China. Qingguo Geng, the director of the committee reviewed his prediction presented in April, 2012, that there would be a possible earthquake of Ms 7.0 to Ms 8.0 in the southwest China during the period of May, 2012 through May, 2013. Members attended the meeting agreed with the prediction time, but had different opinion in the location of the possible strong earthquake in the southwest China. The first author made a presentation at the meeting. Zuoxun Zeng gave a definite location on his prediction map. It is located at the middle of the line linking Ya’an and Kangding, Sichuan Province.
This prediction is made mainly according to two aspects. One is that two satellite local intense gravity anomalies with the same characteristics are appearing at the Wenchuan area and the west to Ya’an City, respectively. The other is that the Wenchuan Earthquake only released the energy of the northeast part of the longmenshan fracture zone, this leads to the stress and energy concentration at the southwestern part of the fracture zone, especially at the southwestern end of the Longmenshan fracture zone with the abrupt gravity change, or abrupt change of density of the middle-upper crust. The epicenter of Ya’an earthquake (Ms 7.0) is located at Lushan of Ya’an City, 80 km from the predicated location. The origin time of the quake is before May of 2013.
The successful medium-term prediction of the Ya’an Earthquak has given us a good deal of enlightenment: as a geological process, earthquake should have its own regularity. A successful earthquake prediction needs comprehensive analysis by using information from different observations. Just because of this, the main need now is a national or international expert group with comprehensive analysis experience and an efficient information platform for seismic precursor. The data processing and update for the satellite gravity will be helpful to narrowing the area of the possible strong earthquakes.
Key words: Ya’an Earthquake, medium-term prediction, satellite abrupt gravity change，Wenchuan Earthquake, Longmenshan Fracture Zone

Three complete data sets of strong earthquakes (M-> 5.5), which occurred in the seismic regions of Chile, Mexico and Kamchatka during the time period 1899-1985, have been used to test the existence of a time-lag in the seismic energy release between these regions. These data sets were cross-correlated in order to determine whether any pair of the sets are correlated. For this purpose statistical tests, such as the T-test, the Fisher's transformation and probability distribution have been applied to determine the significance of the obtained correlation coefficients. The results show that the time-lag between Chile and Kamchatka is-2, which means that Kamchatka precedes Chile by 2 years, with a correlation coefficient significant at 99.80% level, a weak correlation between Kamchatka-Mexico and noncorrelation for Mexico-Chile.

Статья содержит результаты сравнения натурных исследований сейсмоопасных районов и изучения землетрясений и их моделирования на основе трансдисциплинарной модели пространственной единицы порядка. Предлагаются способы преодоления объективных трудностей развития мультидисциплинарных методов изучения и прогноза землетрясений. Даётся обоснование возможности создания непротиворечивого комплекса предвестников, а также единого интегрального предшественника. Демонстрируются результаты многолетнего аппаратного мониторинга динамики интегрального предшественника землетрясений в сейсмоопасных зонах.

No surface slip occurred on the southern end of the 2004 Parkfield rupture until several days after the earthquake.  Instead creep meters record instantaneous shear strain followed by increasing shear that eventually led to the manifestation of surface cracks.  The observation contradicts previous speculation that surface creep may represent a precursor to subsubsurface rupture.

The generation of transient electric potential prior to rupture has been demonstrated in a number of laboratory experiments
involving both dry and wet rock specimens. Several different electrification effects are responsible for these observations, but how these may scale up co-operatively in large heterogeneous rock volumes, to produce observable macroscopic signals, is still incompletely understood. Accordingly, the nature and properties of possible EEP are still inadequately understood. For a long time observations have been fragmentary, narrow band and oligo-parametric, (for instance, magnetic field was not routinely measured). In general, the discrimination of purported EEP signals relied on ‘experience’ and ad hoc empirical rules that could be shown unable to guarantee the validity of the data. In consequence, experimental studies have produced a prolific variety of signal shape, complexity and duration but no explanation for the apparently indefinite diversity. A set of inconsistent or conflicting ideas attempted to explain such observations, including different concepts about the EEP source region (near the observer or at the earthquake focus) and propagation (frequently assumed to be guided by peculiar geoelectric structure). Statistics, was also applied to establish the ‘beyond chance’ association between presumed EEP signals
and earthquakes. In the absence of well constrained data, this approach ended up with intense debate and controversy but no useful results. The response of the geophysical community was scepticism and by the mid-90's, the very existence of EEP was debated. At that time, a major re-thinking of EEP research began to take place, with reformulation of its queries and objectives and refocusing on the exploration of fundamental concepts, less on
field experiments. The first encouraging results began to appear in the last two years of the 20th Century. Observation technologies are mature and can guarantee reliable electric field measurements, although improvements are still possible with new generation electrodes and smart measurement schemes  facilitating noise suppression. It is increasingly apparent that simultaneous electric and magnetic measurements are indispensable and conducted in most new experiments. There's also an emerging trend towards multi-parametric, broad-band observations that should provide far better data and constraints on the source processes. The physics of electrification mechanisms are beginning to clarify, as also is the potential of solid state effects: charge and current densities under controlled
conditions are such, that if scaled up to the size of seismogenic zones, they would yield observable EEP. However, there are still many unknowns, requiring careful experimentation and theoretical development. Research is also directed towards decoding the physics of stress/strain changes that cause electrification, exploiting properties such as are the fractal nature of faulting and Self-Organised Criticality. The first evidence of possible electromagnetic precursors due to a SOC system has been published recently. Modelling of the source processes from first principles is stepping up and certain classes of observed signals can now be predicted by theory, providing new and
more rigorous means of data authentication; such models have also established the feasibility of long range EEP signals. Although progress is apparent, the knowledge is still grossly incomplete and EPP data are not indisputable, if tested with the full rigour of scientific verification methods. The new research philosophy requires time and vigilance before it begins to pay off, but it appears to have taken a more promising course.

A region of definite accelerating seismic release rates has been identified at the SW Hellenic Arc and Trench system, of Peloponnesus, and to the south-west of the island of Kythera (Greece). The identification was made after detailed, parametric time-to-failure modelling on a 0.1° square grid over the area 20° E - 27° E and 34° N-38° N. The observations are strongly suggestive of terminal-stage critical point behaviour (critical exponent of the order of 0.25), leading to a large earthquake with magnitude 7.1 ± 0.4, to occur at time 2003.6 ± 0.6. In addition to the region of accelerating seismic release rates, an adjacent region of decelerating seismicity was also observed. The acceleration/deceleration pattern appears in such a well structured and organised manner, which is strongly suggestive of a causal relationship. An explanation may be that the observed characteristics of distributed power-law seismicity changes may be produced by stress transfer from a fault, to a region already subjected to stress inhomogeneities, i.e. a region defined by the stress field required to rupture a fault with a specified size, orientation and rake. Around a fault that is going to rupture, there are bright spots (regions of increasing stress) and stress shadows (regions relaxing stress); whereas acceleration may be observed in bright spots, deceleration may be expected in the shadows. We concluded that the observed seismic release patterns can possibly be explained with a family of NE-SW oriented, left-lateral, strike-slip to oblique-slip faults, located to the SW of Kythera and Antikythera and capable of producing earthquakes with magnitudes MS ~ 7. Time-to-failure modelling and empirical analysis of earthquakes in the stress bright spots yield a critical exponent of the order 0.25 as expected from theory, and a predicted magnitude and critical time perfectly consistent with the figures given above. Although we have determined an approximate location, time and magnitude, it is as yet difficult to assert a prediction for reasons discussed in the text. However, our results, as well as similar independent observations by another research team, indicate that a strong earthquake may occur at the SW Hellenic Arc, in the next few years.

[1]
This article documents a beginning investigation into time-derivative aspects of vertical crustal motions that may supply the energetic impetus responsible for triggering large (M ≥ 6) earthquakes in the Los Angeles and San Francisco regions.  These subtle, in-depth temporal aspects of motion are, herein, qualitatively correlated to quake occurrences, and presumably, quake triggering.  This matching in time appears to indicate that, frequently, strong triggering impetus derives from the jerk and jounce of ellipsoidal demand.  Ellipsoidal demand is the amount of georadial adjustment of the crust that is physically required for an increment of time that includes movement of Earth’s rotational axis with respect to the globe, which is measured as polar drift.  Also, significant triggering impetus appears, on occasion, to derive from the jerk and jounce of lunisolar earth-tide displacement of Earth’s surface.  The constructive combination of time-derivative aspects of motion of both modes of vertical crustal motion—ellipsoidal demand and earth tides—may drive crustal rupture mechanism(s) that are responsible for the initiation of large quakes in these two regions.  This investigation has only begun, many details remain undeveloped and questions unanswered.  However, if these preliminary results and conclusions hold up to extensive scrutiny and testing, the seemingly intractable problem of forecasting earthquakes in California may be closer to solution.