Earthquake Precursors

Continuous He, 222 Rn concentrations and gamma dose rate were simultaneously monitored for pre-seismic signatures at two thermal springs in India that are separated at a distance of approximately 1612 km. The recordings of six month monitoring period (September 15, 2007–March 15, 2008) are presented here. In this paper, we make a cross correlation study of the simultaneously recorded multi-component gas-geochemical data from the two thermal springs. In the monitoring period a number of prominent fluctuations beyond the regular diurnal variations in the gas composition were recorded. We attempt to find out the linkage between the recorded distinct variations with local and remote seismic activities. Anomalous fluctuations in the spring gases were observed during the period December 24–27, 2007 at both the thermal springs and these anomalies may be correlated to the distant (~1000 km) China earthquake of magnitude M = 6.3 that occurred on January 09, 2008. Based on the obtained sequence of data points a time series analysis to relate earthquake magnitude, epicentral distance and precursor time through statistical methods and empirical equations related to the zone of influence is made. Concurrent monitoring of multi-component gas-geochemical anomalies recorded at a number of distant sites appears to be a potential tool to deal with the commonly debated question of earthquake precursors.

The authors consider the gravitational precursors of Mega Ear thquakes in Asia and Southeast Asia: Sichuan earthquake, M7.9, May 12, 2008; Andaman Islands earthquake, M7.5, August 10, 2009; Samoa Islands earthquake, M8.1, September 29, 2009; Northern Sumatra earthquake, M7.8, April 06,2010; Tohoku earthquake, M9, March 11, 2011.
All gravitational precursors were recorded using of ATROPATENA earthquake prediction stations. The creation of an international earthquake prediction system based on the results obtained is proposed. To monitor spatio-temporal variations of the gravitational
field, special detectors named ATROPATENA stations have been developed and made.
The detectors continuously measure the value of the gravitational constant G in mutually perpendicular directions and relative values of gravity Δg. Before and after the Mega Earthquakes in Asia and Southeast Asia, variations of the Earth’s gravitational field were
registered at large distances from the epicenter (near 8000 km); they were measured with the ATROPATENA stations in the following location: Baku (Azerbaijan) and Yogyakarta (Indonesia). Indications of the Cavendish balance when measuring the gravitational constant
G are influenced by spatio-temporal changes in external gravitational fields of geological origin, which alter over time indications of the true values of G. Measuring the true value of the gravitational constant G on the Earth’s surface with accuracy greater than the second digit after the decimal point is not possible due to the spatio-temporal variations of the gravitational field as a result of the impact of geodynamic processes.
For the first time, the true cause of variations of the recorded values of the gravitational constant G has been identified. These variations were the subject of scientific dispute throughout the last century.

In present study, we measured the Total Electron Content (TEC) variation in the ionosphere from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data which might have been induced by earthquakes in the Hima-layan region. The results were analysed with other inducing factors (geomagnetic storm and solar flare) affecting TEC in order to constraint the causative factor. The study has been performed to understand a relationship between ionospheric electron content and earthquakes occurrences with special emphasis on Himalayan region and provides information on spatio-temporal variation of TEC from GNSS observation stations visa -vis prominent earthquakes of the region. The results indicate that the ground based GNSS (GPS) observations show the deviation in vertical total electron content (vTEC) in ionosphere few days prior to the seismic event as evident from our two continuously operating reference stations (CORS) as well as from CORS of UNAVCO data centre. Ionospheric perturbation has also been observed in case of low magnitude earthquakes (Mw 4.9 in present study) whenever recording station lies very close to the epicentre. TEC variation is found to increase as the epicentre distances decreases. In case of Mw 7.8, 2015 Nepal earthquake the TEC variation is found to increase by 15e20 TEC unit recorded at station separated by 60 km apart. This may provide us the avenue for epicentre detection as TEC concentration was found to increase as we move closer to the epicentre. TEC variations (mostly high TEC) have been observed during a period of 0e8 days prior to 4 earthquakes: 1st April 2015 Pipalkoti earthquake (4.9Mw), 25th April 2015 Nepal earthquake (7.8Mw), 26 April 2015 (6.7Mw) and 12th May 2015 (7.3Mw) Nepal earthquakes. Significant low TEC values were also observed before 13e14 days prior to first two earthquake events. Overall the study has revealed that low TEC followed by couple of high TEC values correlate well with the seismic events in Himalayan region.

Il terremoto de L’Aquila è stato uno dei più terribili degli ultimi 20 anni di storia della nostra penisola: 308 vittime (di cui 53 studenti universitari e 20 bambini), 1.500 feriti, 70.000 sfollati, 23.000 case distrutte, danni al patrimonio artistico-culturale incalcolabili, debilitazione totale di un centro sociale e politico come L’Aquila. Una profonda ferita nella storia della città, che aveva già vissuto un’esperienza del genere, ma mai così distruttiva. Sono nato a L’Aquila, lì ho trascorso la mia esistenza fino alla carriera universitaria, ho vissuto il terremoto e sono stato sfollato per due mesi. Così, qualche mese fa, mi sono recato dal Professor Giovanni Gozzini, che ha appoggiato e guidato la mia ricerca. Il mio intento era quello di provare a dipanare la matassa di eventi che avevano preceduto il 6 aprile 2009, giorno della terribile scossa, poiché mi ero accorto che sia a livello locale che nazionale ci fosse molta confusione riguardo a quel periodo e alle figure che, a vario titolo, lo avevano composto e caratterizzato, concentrandomi sulla figura che trasversalmente aveva interessato tutti e tutto: Giampaolo Giuliani. Così ho intrapreso il mio lavoro, muovendo inizialmente verso una semplice ricostruzione storica del pre-terremoto, attraverso gli articoli usciti sul principale quotidiano aquilano, “Il Centro”1, dal 1 Dicembre 2008 al 6 Aprile 2009, reperiti da me presso il database on-line dello stesso quotidiano. Ho fatto questa scelta perché la stampa locale è più vicina agli eventi rispetto alla stampa nazionale e descrive la vicenda osservandola da vicino e attraverso giornalisti del luogo. In seguito ho ricostruito, sempre attraverso gli articoli reperiti sul web, la storia di Giampaolo Giuliani, personaggio centrale del mio studio. Al materiale acquisito, in questo caso, si unisce l’intervista effettuata dal sottoscritto al Sig. Giuliani, il 5 Luglio 2013, presso la sua abitazione; intervista dapprima registrata e, successivamente, sbobinata e trascritta. Ho pensato fosse corretto inserirla in Appendice, nella versione integrale,
1 “Il Centro” è un quotidiano abruzzese fondato nel 1986, poiché mancava in Abruzzo una voce locale, autonoma, che si dedicasse alla realtà regionale. Il nome sottolinea la posizione geografica di riferimento e la linea editoriale, non schierata ma aperta a tutte le voci. La sede centrale è a Pescara, ma ha Redazioni a Teramo, Chieti e L’Aquila. (Utenti di Wikipedia, “Il Centro”, Wikipedia l’Enciclopedia libera, 6 Settembre 2013,http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Il_Centro).
4
per una consultazione diretta. Infine, per completare il quadro della fase pre-terremoto, ho deciso di dedicare la parte finale alla vicenda della Commissione Grandi Rischi, dalla riunione del Marzo 2009 alla condanna del Settembre 2012. Per questa sezione mi è stata utile la lettura della sentenza e di un volume di recente pubblicazione, che mi ha consentito di sviscerare la vicenda, tra articoli di legge e decreti legislativi.2
Il terremoto aquilano è un argomento vastissimo, nel quale non è difficile perdersi. Il mio intento non è quello di fare bilanci, anche perché sono passati appena 4 anni dalla tragedia, ma spero almeno di essere riuscito a narrare e ad analizzare tutti gli aspetti e i protagonisti di questa triste pagina di storia, sperando di essere stato il più oggettivo possibile.

Electron content in the ionosphere is very sensitive to temporary disturbances of the Earth’s magnetosphere (geomagnetic storm), solar flares, and seismic activities. The Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-based total electron content (TEC) measurement has emerged as an important technique for computations of earthquake precursor signals. We examined the pre-earthquake signatures for eight strong magnitude (Mw > 6: 6.1 to 7.8) earthquakes with the aid of GNSS-based TEC measurement in the tectonically active Himalayan region using International GNSS Service (IGS) stations as well as local GNSS-based continuously operating reference stations (CORS). The results indicate very significant ionospheric anomalies in the vertical total electron content (vTEC) a few days before the main shock for all of the events. Geomagnetic activities were also studied during the TEC observation window to ascertain their role in ionospheric perturbations. It was also inferred that TEC variation due to low magnitude events could also be monitored if the epicenter lies closer to the GNSS or IGS station. Therefore, the study has confirmed TEC anomalies before major Himalayan earthquakes, thereby making it imperative to set up a much denser network of IGS/CORS for real-time data analysis and forewarning.

► A kind of Elastic Composite, Reinforced Lightweight Concrete (ECRL.C) with the mentioned specifics is a type of "Resilient Composite Systems (RCS)" in which, contrary to the basic geometrical assumption of the flexure theory in Solid Mechanics, "the strain changes in the beam height during bending" is typically "Nonlinear". (The RCS could be counted as "The Methodically Reinforced Nonlinear Porous Materials", also having the high specific modulus of resilience in flexure.)

♦ Through employing this integrated structure, with significantly high strain capability and modulus of resilience in bending, we can achieve the high bearing capacities in beams with the secure fracture pattern, in less weight.

♦ Due to the system particulars and its behavior in bending, the usual calculation of the necessary equilibrium steel amount to attain the low-steel bending sections with the secure fracture pattern in the beams and its related limitations do not become propounded. Thereby, the strategic deadlock of the high possibility of the brittle fracture pattern in the bending elements made of the usual reinforced lightweight concretes, especially about the low-thickness bending elements as slabs, is unlocked.

♦ This simple, applied technology and the related components and systems can have several applications in the road and building industries. (It can also be used in making the resilient pieces and constructions "with appropriate behavior and high resistance against severe blasts and shocks.)

♦ Regarding the "strategic importance of Lightweight and Integrated Construction in the practical increase of the resistance and safety against earthquake" and considering the appropriate behavior of this "resilient", durable structure against the dynamic loads, shakes, impacts, blasts, and shocks and the possibility of making some lightweight and insulating, non-brittle, reinforced sandwich panels and pieces, this resilient system and its components can especially be useful in the "seismic areas".

♦ This system can also be employed in constructing the vibration and impact absorber bearing pieces & slabs, which can be used in the "Railroad & Subway Structures" too.

♦ Here, the "Resilient Composite Systems (RCS)" and particularly, the ECRLC as a type of the RCS have been concisely presented. [By the way, an instance of the said new structure and its components and the results of some performed experiments (as bending loading and compressive loading of the slabs made of this structure, similar to ASTM E 72 Standard) have been shown in the related pictures & figures.]
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/ ● Key Words: Strength of materials (solid mechanics), Civil (construction), Materials, Earthquake (resistance and safety), Resilient concrete (flexible concrete, bendable concrete, elastic concrete), Composite concrete, Lightweight concrete, Reinforced concrete, Fibered concrete, Lightweight and integrated construction, Rail (railroad, railway), Subway, Road, Bridge, Resilience, Energy absorption, Fracture pattern, Non-linear, Strain changes, Beam, Ductility, Toughness, Insulating (insulation), Thin, Slab, Roof, Ceiling, Wall (partition), Building, Tower, Plan of mixture, Insulating reinforced lightweight pieces, 3d, Sandwich panel, Dry mix, Plaster, Foam, Expanded polystyrene (EPS), Polypropylene, Pozzolan, Porous matrix (Pored matrix), Mesh (lattice), Cement, RCS, ECRLC
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/ ► Contents:
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* ABSTRACT
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* I. INTRODUCTION
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* II. WHAT ARE THE RESILIENT COMPOSITE SYSTEMS
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- A. General Review
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- B. Components
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. - 1) Mesh or Lattice
. - 2) Fibers or Strands
. - 3) "Matrix" With the Suitable Hollow "Pores (Voids)" and/or "Lightweight Aggregates" in its Context
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- C. More Explanations About the RCS
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- D. Why Are These Systems Called "Composite"?
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- E. The General Structural Particulars and Functional Criteria as the Necessary Specifications of the Compound Materials Generally Called "Resilient Composite Systems"
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. - 1) General Structural Criteria
. - 2) Functional Criteria (Required Specifications)
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* III. "ELASTIC COMPOSITE REINFORCED LIGHTWEIGHT CONCRETE (ECRLC)" AS A TYPE OF THE RESILIENT COMPOSITE SYSTEMS (RCS)
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- An Instance of the Lightweight Concrete That Could be Used in Making the ECRLC
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* IV. REVIEW OF SOME EXPERIMENTS, AND MORE DESCRIPTION ABOUT ECRLC
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* V. SUPPLEMENTARY ELEMENTS
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* VI. APPLICATIONS
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* VII. FINAL REVIEW
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* ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
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* REFERENCES 
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***
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/ ● General Review:
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• A kind of "Elastic Composite, Reinforced Lightweight Concrete" with the said specifics is a type of the "Resilient Composite Systems (R.C.S.)" in which, contrary to the basic geometrical assumption of flexure theory in the Solid Mechanics, the strain changes in the beam height during bending is typically "Non-linear".
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• Indeed, the RCS, as the Elastic Composite, Reinforced Lightweight Concrete (ECRLC), do not behave as most of the solid materials in bending.
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• In the "Resilient Composite Systems", distributed pores and/or appropriate lightweight aggregates or beads, accompanied by the reticular structure of the strengthened conjoined matrix, bring about the expedient internal shape changes during bending and continuing the elasticity in bending with the said nonlinearly pattern. This means better distribution of the stresses and strains and better utilizing the potential capacities of the employed reinforcements in bending and tension; whereas, in the usual lightweight concretes for instance, distributed hollow pores (such as the gas bulbs in the cellular concretes) or lightweight aggregates (such as Plastic, Rubber or polystyrene beads or any other kind of lightweight aggregates such as Perlite and Vermiculite) decrease the modulus of resilience in bending and could increase "the possibility of beam fracture of brittle and primary compressive type" in bending (compared to the concrete with higher density) according to the case.
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• In this way, by using the mentioned method to make the said particular composite systems, we could considerably increase the modulus of resilience and bearing capacity in bending "together with" significant decrease of the weight and also the possibility of beam fracture of primary compressive type. Through making these particular integrated functioning systems, for the first time, the said (paradoxical) properties have been concomitantly fulfilled in "one functioning unit" altogether.
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• Respect to the special pattern of the strain changes during bending in the particular Resilient Composite System termed ECRLC, this system as an integrated functioning unit with the reticular arrangement and texture has more strain capability (particularly within the elastic limit), energy absorption and load bearing capacities in bending compared to the usual reinforced concrete beams.
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• Thereby, through employing this applied structure, solving some of the main problems in lightweight concretes application, especially the deadlock of brittle and insecure being of fracture pattern in many of the usual reinforced lightweight concrete structures, is provided; reaching to the high bearing capacities in bending elements (even with low dimensions & weights) is to hand, and getting access to a simple and practical opportunity for "qualitative development of possibilities of using lightweight concretes" (especially with oven-dry densities of < 1350-1400kg/m3 and compressive strengths of <14-17mpa, and even with oven-dry densities of < 800kg/m3) is conceivable.
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• Naturally, by more studies in the field, these structures and their applications in various fields could be developed more.
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/ ► FULL TEXT (Open Access):
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- http://arxiv.org/abs/1510.03933 
( https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1510/1510.03933.pdf ) ;
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. Kamyar Esmaeili: "Elastic Composite Reinforced Lightweight Concrete as a Type of Resilient Composite Systems";
The Internet Journal of Innovative Technology and Creative Engineering (IJITCE); 2012; 2(8): 1-22.
- http://ia800305.us.archive.org/34/items/IJITCE/vol2no801.pdf [Also archived at: http://www.webcitation.org/6B2pFPpBh ] ;
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- https://www.scribd.com/doc/11530978/Elastic-Composite-Reinforced-Lightweight-Concrete-ECRLC-as-a-type-of-Resilient-Composite-Systems-RCS-http-arxiv-org-abs-1510-03933 ; 
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- https://sites.google.com/site/NEWSTRUCTURE1 ;
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- https://sites.google.com/site/newstructure1/publications-page/ELASTIC%20COMPOSITE%2C%20REINFORCED%20LIGHTWEIGHT%20CONCRETE%20AS%20A%20TYPE%20OF%20RESILIENT%20COMPOSITE%20SYSTEMS.pdf ;
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- http://www.pdf-archive.com/2015/09/22/elasticcomposite-reinforcedlightweightconcreteasatypeofrcs/elasticcomposite-reinforcedlightweightconcreteasatypeofrcs.pdf ;
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- The link to the document in PDF format on this site:
file:///C:/Users/pc5/Downloads/ELASTIC_COMPOSITE_REINFORCED_LIGHTWEIGHT.pdf ;
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- ...

Concentration of Rn-222 in soil has been monitored continuously at Ravangla in the Sikkim Himalayan Region of eastern India for about 7 months from October 2015 to May 2016 to detect earthquake-induced anomalies. The recorded data clearly show that various physical and meteorological parameters influence the soil radon concentration,
leading to very complex soil Rn-222 time series. The components due to such external influences have been removed from the present time series, and Hilbert–Huang transform (HHT) applied for analysis of the data. Two radon anomalies caused due to earthquakes of magnitude Mb = 5.0 that occurred on 19 November 2015 and 5 April 2016 within an epicentral distance of 500 km from the monitoring station have been identified on the soil Rn-222 time series. These two precursory anomalies occurred 9 and 10 days, respectively, before the occurrence of the earthquakes. The absence of spurious signals or missing
anomalies demonstrates that HHT is advantageous for analysis of nonlinear non-stationary data, and hence, it is a promising technique to analyse soil radon behaviour for predicting the possibility of occurrence of earthquakes.

KThe existence of a system which automatically calculates Total  Electron Content (TEC), analyzes and displays the results become expected target in the earthquake precursors study. This paper discusses about PyIonoQuake, TEC anomaly detection system for earthquake precursor study. It is a development of IonoQuake version 1.0. Py-IonoQuake was designed for automatically acquisizing and analyzing Global Ionosphere Map (GIM) TEC data correlation. Py-IonoQuake outputs are correlation coeffisien deviation and its standard deviation ratio (skk/dskk). TEC anomaly are determined as skk/dskk values less than -1. Py-IonoQuake also displaid Dst index as consideration in classification of TEC anomaly occured. Py-IonoQuake test results of some earthquake cases showed the presence of TEC anomalies that could be categorized as earthquake precursors. Py-IonoQuake test showed more stabil performance both in auto and offline modes

Anomalous fluctuations of helium concentration emanating from thermal springs have been observed on several occasions prior to major seismic events such as earthquakes. With a view to probe the scaling properties inherent to the helium time series and to explore the effect of anomalies the method of Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) has been employed. For the present study we have chosen a data set for six months (July – December, 2005) incorporating the anomalous fluctuations corresponding to the Pak-istan quake (7.6M ; 34.493N:73.629E) occurred on October 08, 2005. The analysis captures the signature of crossover phenomenon and exhibits the long memory dependence of helium sequence. The technique permits distinction between two sets of helium signals derived from seismically active and quiet periods. A statistically significant correlation between the anomalous helium concentration and the fluctuation exponent is obtained. Such correlation also points towards fractal geometry of the underlying dynamical system. Our findings strongly express the possibility of a trade off between precursory anomalies and the ongoing process during the earthquake preparation stage within the crust. External seismic stimulation producing abnormal temporal variations sways the normal course of helium release from the earth's interior there by alters the scaling properties. Occurrence of crossover point could be the precursor of crustal instability due to transient response to the evolution of stress-strain episodes in the nucleation phase of the earthquake.. The scaling exponent at higher time scale is consistent with the persistent nature of the time series while that at the lower time scale resembles brown noise. This analytical approach turns to be promising in identi

Monitoring of soil radon gas has been continuously carried out during the last two years around Opak Fault, Yogyakarta, as one of earthquake disaster mitigation efforts. This study aimed to analyze the variations of radon gas and seismic activity, and to explore the emergence of local earthquake precursors that occurred around the Opak Fault. Radon
gas monitoring conducted at two locations:  in Pundong and Piyungan areas. While the earthquake activities around Opak Fault were obtained from BMKG. This radon gas anomaly is studied to see earthquake precursors by applying the correlation method. Radon gas anomaly is determined if the ratio of correlation coefficient deviation (Sk) with
standard deviation (Ds) is smaller than -1. The results showed an increase in emissions of radon gas correlated with the increase in the frequency of seismic events.  The application of correlation method showed the presence of radon gas anomalies as earthquake precursors around Opak Fault. Further researches are needed to see the correlation and consistency of the results of monitoring radon gas anomalies with earthquakes around Opak Fault.

This research analyses the relationships between ion density variations in the solar wind, recorded by the ACE satellite, and variations in the geomagnetic and interplanetary magnetic fields, as measured by the GOES 13 and 15 satellites before earthquakes with a magnitude of M6+. From the data presented, from January 1, 2012 to 31 December 2013, correlations can be established between solar activity, seismic events, and the geomagnetic background linked to the plasmasphere.

Based on thresholding correlation techniques, the ionospheric TEC (Total Electron Content) anomalies are grouped into earthquake precursors if they met the criteria of a TEC anomaly that exceeds the threshold value and no geomagnetic storm events in the previus 0-2 days. Testing of the thresholding correlation techniques on ionospheric diurnal variations of GIM (Global Ionospheric Map) TEC data which were limited to cases of earthquakes above 8 Richter Scale, it gave test results of 60% successful of earthquake precursor detection. By using ame method, we have
examined the thresholding correlation techniques for earthquake cases between Mw 7 - 8 magnitudes during 2016. The earthquakes' latitude were spread from high until mid-latitude and equatorial, so they gave very good analysis. The test results showed that there were 11 out of 16 cases or about 69% of ionospheric TEC anomalies can be classified as
earthquake precursors, which could be seen 1 day up to few weeks before earthquakes. This percentage is slightly larger than the percentage of earthquake precursors over Mw 8 detected by the same technique which was only 63%. This is due to relatively fewer geomagnetic storms during the year 2016 compared to 2000 - 2012 periods that experiencing two peaks of maximum solar cycles. From two different periods of testing, it can be concluded that the thresholding correlation techniques have a greater chance for detecting earthquake precursors during low and minimum solar activity.

1st International Conference on Natural Hazards and Disaster Management - June 1-3, 2017 - Osaka, Japan
Theme: “Significance of Early warning systems and risk management strategies”

El tema de la provabilidad de un terremoto es ahora objeto de opiniones contradictorias, por problemas estrictamente científicos (dificultad de correlacionar estrechamente ciertos precursores a la ocurrencia del fenómeno en un cierto intervalo de tiempo, de espacio y de la intensidad de lo mismo) y social (manejo de las reacciones de las personas frente a una alerta de que es difícil predecir la duración y el nivel real de riesgo de la misma).
Sin embargo, el avance de los conocimientos en el campo de la geofísica y de la geoquímica, junto con la disponibilidad de instrumentos que permiten detectar con precisión ciertos fenómenos, han abierto nuevas perspectivas a la oportunidad de conocer con suficiente precisión si existe o no la posibilidad que se produzcan  terremotos inminentes y de qué intensidad.
En el caso específico del territorio ecuatoriano, siempre afectado por fenómenos sísmicos y volcánicos, ya hoy, para las ocurrencias de erupciones volcánicas y tsunamis, un eficiente sistema de gestión de riesgos está activo.
Con la reciente crisis del volcán Cotopaxi (que comenzó en la primavera de 2015 y que siegue tambièn ahora) se han introducido, en las áreas dentro de un radio de treinta kilómetros de esto, una serie de medidas que permite la evacuación o la seguridad de la población directamente afectada (entre 100.000 y 200.000 personas, entre las provincias de Cotopaxi, Pichincha, Napo y Tungurahua) por el riesgo del descenso del lahar. Con motivo de esta crisis, si son también adecuadas las infraestructuras para adaptarlas para la evacuacción de masas de 30.000÷40.000 personas en treinta minutos (proporcionando lugares seguros para acogerla), como por resistir - siempre que sea posible - a los efectos de un descenso del lahar del Cotopaxi. Al mismo tiempo, la población fue educada sobre qué hacer en caso de evacuación, por el peligro de gas volcánico, por la interrupción de la red de carreteras, de electricidad y teléfono.
Del mismo modo, las ciudades costeras están planeandas por hacer una evacuación en pocos minutos en caso de peligro de tsunami, evento que se ha repetido varias veces, últimamente, por los terremotos que han afectado a los territorios que bordean el Océano Pacífico.
La gestión de una alerta sísmica es más compleja, por la dificultad de identificar con precisión las áreas que podrían ser afectadas, y para el muy corto tiempo de evolución del fenómeno, pero, a la luz de la experiencia adquirida, es posible tomar medidas que permitan un menor impacto para la población de un terremoto. Entre estas, los más factibles son - pudiendo conocer con anticipación la posibilidad del manifiestarse un terremoto de una cierta intensidad - suspender las actividades que conducen a concentración de personas en edificios en situación de riesgo y la provisión de alojamiento temporal (como ya se ha experimentado en Italia en el terremoto del año 2009).

1st International Conference on Natural Hazards and Disaster Management - June 1-3, 2017 - Osaka, Japan
Theme: “Significance of Early warning systems and risk management strategies”

Il tema della prevedibilità dei terremoti è oggi oggetto di opinioni contrastanti, per problemi di tipo strettamente scientifico (la difficoltà di correlare strettamente certi precursori al manifestarsi del fenomeno in un certo intervallo di tempo, di spazio e di intensità dello stesso) e sociale (la gestione delle reazioni della popolazione di fronte ad una allerta di cui è difficile predire la durata ed il reale livello di rischio per la stessa).
Tuttavia, l'avanzamento delle conoscenze nel settore geofisico e geochimico, congiuntamente alla disponibilità di strumenti che permettono di rilevare con precisione certi fenomeni, aprono oggi nuove prospettive alla possibilità di conoscere, con una sufficiente precisione, se ci sia o meno la possibilità del verificarsi di un sisma imminente e di quale intensità.
Nel caso specifico del territorio ecuatoriano, interessato sempre da fenomeni sismici e vulcanici, già oggi, per le evenienze di eruzioni vulcaniche e tsunami, è attivo un efficiente sistema di gestione di tali rischi.
Con la recente crisi del vulcano Cotopaxi (iniziata nella primavera 2015 ed a tutt'oggi in corso) si sono attuate, nelle zone nel raggio di una trentina di chilometri da esso, una serie di misure che permettono l'evacuazione o la messa in sicurezza della popolazione direttamente interessata (tra le 100'000 e le 200'000 persone, tra le province del Cotopaxi, del Pichincha, del Napo e del Tungurahua) soprattutto dal rischio della discesa di lahar. Nell'occasione di questa crisi, si sono adeguate anche le infrastrutture sia per renderle idonee ad evacuare masse di 30'000÷40'000 persone in trenta minuti (predisponendo luoghi sicuri in cui ricoverarla), sia per resistere – per quanto possibile – agli effetti di una discesa di lahar dal Cotopaxi. Nella stessa occasione, la popolazione è stata istruita sul da farsi in caso di evacuazione, di pericolo di gas vulcanici, di interruzione della rete stradale, elettrica e telefonica.
Nello stesso modo, le località costiere sono preparate ad organizzare in pochi minuti una evacuazione nel caso del pericolo di tsunami, caso che si è ripetuto alcune volte, negli ultimi tempi, per terremoti che hanno interessato i territori che si affacciano sull'Oceano Pacifico.
La gestione di una allerta sismica è certo più complessa, per la difficoltà di identificare esattamente le zone che potrebbero essere colpite e per i tempi strettissimi di evoluzione del fenomeno ma, sulla scorta delle esperienze maturate, è possibile prendere delle misure che permettano un minore impatto sulle popolazioni di un terremoto. Tra queste, le più attuabili sono - potendo conoscere con un anticipo la possibilità che si manifesti un sisma di una certa intensità – il sospendere le attività che comportino la concentrazione di persone in edifici a rischio e la predisposizione di alloggi temporanei (come già sperimentato in Italia in occasione del terremoto del 2009).

The causes of earthquakes can be multiple and diverse, including those related with human activity.
Various types of energy should then be evaluated besides the ones of tectonic origin, in order to build a specific
modeling system of the data, which may support a probabilistic earthquake prediction in the short term. Among them,
there are gravitational, inertial, electric and electromagnetic energies. The scientific question which the authors have
tried to answer in the present study, is whether the global M6+ seismic activity is preceded by an increase in the solar
activity, and in particular in the ionic variation of the solar wind. For this purpose, an analysis was performed on 428
earthquakes with greater than or equal to M6+ magnitude, which occurred on a global scale between 2012 and 2014.
The data on seismicity have been compared with those provided by the geomagnetic observatories and those on the
solar modulation transmitted by the ACE satellite orbiting the L1 point at 1.5 million kilometers from Earth. As the
results reveal, the analyzed earthquakes with magnitude greater than M6+ have shown a remarkably higher
occurrence during the phases of increase and decrease of the proton density of the solar wind.

A devastating earthquake of magnitude 6.9 occurred in Southern Italy on 23rd November 1980 in Irpinia-Basilicata
area. Variations of different geochemical, atmospheric and ionospheric parameters and electromagnetic emissions
were registered around the time of the Irpinia earthquake. The substantial progress reached in understanding
the physics of the electromagnetic and thermal anomalies associated with the earthquake preparation process permitted
us to create the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere (LAI) coupling model published recently. It shows that
the observed effects are not independent but present the cause-consequence chain of physical processes and plasma-
chemical reactions. We try to analyze the seismic data, radon emanation, hydrological anomalies, ground based
ionosondes network, NOAA/AVHRR Thermal Infrared Irradiance (TIR) anomaly, Intercosmos-19 satellite topside
sounding and VLF emissions data using the concept of the developed model and existing laboratory and largescale
active experiments on air ionization. If the observed radon activity is really connected with the earthquake preparation
process, all other variations of the atmosphere and ionosphere parameters can be explained as a consequence
of the main physical process – air ionization by radon.

1st International Conference on Natural Hazards and Disaster Management - June 1-3, 2017 - Osaka, Japan
Theme: “Significance of Early warning systems and risk management strategies”

The predictability of earthquakes is now object of contrasting opinions, for strictly scientific problems type (the difficulty to correlate closely certain precursors to the occurrence of the phenomenon in a certain interval of time, space and intensity) and social (the menagement of the reactions of the population in face of an alert which is difficult predict the duration and the real level of risk).
However, new knowledge in the fields of nuclear physics, geophysics and geochemistry, together with the availability of new technologies that make it possible to accurately detect certain phenomena, have opened new perspectives to the opportunity to know, with sufficient precision, if or not will be an imminent earthquake, the epicentral area and its intensity.
In the specific case of the Ecuadorian territory, always affected by seismic and volcanic phenomena, already today, for occurrences of volcanic eruptions and tsunamis, is operating an efficient system of managing these risks.
With the recent crisis of the Cotopaxi volcano (started in spring 2015 and still in progress), have been implemented, in areas within a distance of some thirty kilometers, a range of measures that allow evacuation or safe-keeping of the population directly affected (between 100,000 and 200,000 people, between the provinces of Cotopaxi, Pichincha, Napo and Tungurahua), especially from the risk of lahar descent. In the event of this crisis, infrastructures have also been adapted to allow them to evacuate 30,000 to 40,000 people in thirty minutes (providing safe places to admit it) and to resist - as far as possible – at effects of a lahar descent from Cotopaxi. On the same occasion, the population was instructed to do in case of evacuation, of danger for volcanic gas, of interruption of the road, electrical and telephone network.
Similarly, for the coastal towns are planning in a few minutes an evacuation in case of tsunami danger; this event has been repeated several times, lately, for the earthquakes that have affected the territories bordering the Pacific Ocean.
The management of a seismic alert is certainly more complex, because of the difficulty of identifying precisely the areas that could be affected, and for the very short times of evolution of the phenomenon; but based on the experiences gained, is possible to take measures that allow a minor Impact on populations of an earthquake. Among these, the most viable ones are - by knowing in advance that an earthquake of some intensity may occur - suspending activities that involve the concentration of people in risky buildings and the provision of temporary housing. (As already experienced in Italy during the earthquake of 2009).

(SLIDES)

(EN) The invention relates to short-term earthquake prediction. The essence of the invention is that anomalous variations in the values of the gravitational constant prior to strong earthquakes are recorded in four directions at an angle of 45° to one another, as well as the force of gravity and the slope of the Earth's surface at a minimum of three recording sites. The recorded gravitational anomalies are equated to the propagation of tectonic waves beneath the recording sites and, on the basis of the parameters of the anomalies and the kinematics of the tectonic waves, the location of the epicentre is determined together with the magnitude, onset time and number of predicted earthquakes. The earthquake prediction device comprises a vacuum chamber with a pair of perpendicular rocker arms suspended on threads therein and having small weights at the ends, two large weights disposed between the rocker arms, a gravimeter, a system for recording the deviations of the rocker arms and the gravimeter, and a second pair of rocker arms suspended on threads and having small weights at the ends and two large weights disposed therebetween, wherein the system consisting of the second pair of rocker arms and large weights is offset at an angle of 45° to the first pair of rocker arms with large weights therebetween, and a tiltmeter is mounted on the base of the device. (FR)L'invention concerne un dispositif de pronostic de tremblements de terre à court terme. L'invention consiste à enregistrer les variations anormales des valeurs de la constante gravitationnelle à la veille de forts tremblements de terre dans quatre directions à 45° les unes par rapports aux autres, la gravité et l'inclinaison de la surface terrestre, ainsi que les minima dans trois points d'enregistrement. On associe les anomalies gravitationnelles enregistrées au passage des ondes tectoniques sous les points d'enregistrement et, sur la base des paramètres des anomalies et de la cinématique des ondes tectoniques, on détermine la position de l'épicentre, l'amplitude, la période d'apparition et le nombre de tremblements de terre pronostiqués. Le dispositif de prévision de tremblements de terre comprend une chambre à vide et, suspendus dans cette chambre sur une paire de fils, une paire de balanciers disposés perpendiculaires avec de petits poids sur leurs extrémités, deux gros poids disposés entre ces balanciers, un gravimètre, un système d'enregistrement de déviation des balanciers et du gravimètre, une deuxième paire de balanciers suspendus sur des fils et comportant de petits poids sur leurs extrémités et deux gros poids disposés entre eux, le système constitué d'une deuxième paire de balanciers et de gros poids étant orienté à un angle de 45 degrés par rapport à la première paire de balanciers avec de gros poids entre eux, et un tiltmètre est monté sur la base du dispositif.

Long-term monitoring of Rn-222 and CO2 at a depth of several dozen meter at the Sde-Eliezer site, located within one of the Dead Sea Fault Zone segments in northern Israel, has led to the discovery of the clear phenomenon that both gases are affected by underground tectonic activity along the Dead Sea Fault Zone. It may relate to pre-seismic processes associated with the accumulation and relaxation of lithospheric stress and strain producing earthquakes. This approach assumes that meteorological influences on physico-chemical
parameters are limited at depth since its strength diminishes with the increase of the overlay layer thickness. Hence, the monitoring of natural gases in deep boreholes above the water table enables to reduce the climatic-induced periodic contributions, and thus to identify the specific portion of the radon signals that could be related to regional tectonic
pre-seismic activity. The plausible pre-seismic local movement of the two gases at depth - is identified by the appearance of discrete, random, non-cyclical signals, wider in time duration than 20 h and clearly wider than the sum of the width of the periodic diurnal and semidiurnal signals driven by ambient meteorological parameters. These non-cyclical
signals may precede, by one day or more, a forthcoming seismic event. Hence, it is plausible to conclude that monitoring of any other natural gas that is present at depth may show a similar broadening signal and may serve as a precursor too. The necessary technical conditions enabling to distinguish between anomalous signals of gases that may be induced locally by pre-seismic processes at depth, and the relatively low periodic
signals that are still established at depth related to external climatic conditions, are presented in detail.

Хаин В.Е., Халилов Э.Н. Гравитационные эффекты перед сильными удаленными землетрясениями. Вестник Международной Академии Наук, №2, 2007, с.46-52. V.Y.Khain, E.N.Khalilov. Gravitational effects before strong distant earthquakes. Bulletin of the International Academy of Science. №2, 2007, pp.45-52. ISSN 1819 - 5733

There has been produced the review of the views at the possibilities of forecasting the earthquakes. There were considered the new technologies of earthquakes forecasting. Conclusions of the author: The main reason of low efficiency of short-term earthquakes forecasting is the wrong interpretation of physical mechanisms of forming the earthquakes harbingers and the displacement of local and long-range harbingers. Overwhelming majority of stable and high-quality harbingers of earthquakes reflects the reaction of the measuring
parameters on passing the tectonic waves from strong earthquakes sources, distanced from the registering instruments for more than 1000 km.

SCIENCE WITHOUT BORDERS. Transactions of the International Academy of Science H &E. Vol.3.2007/2008, SWB, Innsbruck, 2008, p.300-315. ISBN 978-9952-451-01-6
ISSN 2070-0334

A b s t r a c t Present paper deals with a brief review of the research carried out to develop multi-parametric gas-geochemical monitoring facilities dedicated to earthquake prediction research in India by installing a network of seismo-geochemical monitoring observatories at different regions of the country. In an attempt to detect earthquake precursors, the concentrations of helium, argon, nitrogen, methane, radon-222 (222 Rn), polonium-218 (218 Po), and polonium-214 (214 Po) emanating from hydrothermal systems are monitored continuously and round the clock at these observatories. In this paper, we make a cross correlation study of a number of geochemical anomalies recorded at these observatories. With the data received from each of the above observatories we attempt to make a time series analysis to relate magnitude and epicentral distance locations through statistical methods, empirical formulations that relate the area of influence to earthquake scale. Application of the linear and nonlinear statistical techniques in the recorded geochemical data sets reveal a clear signature of long-range correlation in the data sets.

Variations in the relative composition of constituent gases coming out of the mud volcano near Jarwa Creek in Baratang Island, Middle Andaman, are discussed on the basis of regional tectonic settings and seismo-geochemical features. The most abundant gas is CH 4 (55.7 vol.%) followed by N 2 (32.2%), O 2 + Ar (9.9%), CO 2 (2.0%) and He (0.2%). Concentration of the radioactive gas 222 Rn is relatively high (7500 Bq/m 3). This paper discusses the experimental methods adopted to continuously monitor He, CH 4 , CO 2 and 222 Rn with a view to identify pre-seismic gas concentration anomalies associated with regional seismic occurrences. Results related to this gas-geochemical monitoring are presented with a purpose to develop ability in ascribing a distinct geochemical anomaly to a particular seismic activity in the region.

In this study, the zinc oxide prepared from three different precursors: zinc sulfate hepta hydrate, zinc nitrate hexahydrate and zinc acetate dihydrate, has been tested on the germination of Lepidium sativum seeds. Radicles growth of selected seeds responded differently to the treatment of various oxides synthesized. The results show a very significant inhibitory effect on the germination and the growth of rootlets observed in the case of ZnO synthesized from zinc sulfate heptahydrate, compared to the control and other oxides prepared from zinc nitrate or acetate zinc. We found that, after a week of incubation in the presence of ZnO synthesized from zinc sulfate, 65% inhibition of seed germination, the length of the radicles Lepidium sativum decreased almost 90 to 100% and the inhibitory action of this oxide is irreversible after cessation of treatment.

This study the LTPA Emission Project Team presents a new method of detecting electromagnetic signals that is a candidate for the analysis of seismic precursors and for a crustal diagnosis in real time. Earthquakes are an expression of the Earth System and is therefore clear that the anlysis of data must be evaluated in a holistic context, supported by advanced technologies and by the constant and rapid synergy with the scientific community thanks to the web. The RDF experimentation proposed in this paper is based on some precursor candidates, such as a magnetic anomalies and particular frequency bands, activated by the minerals of the rocks under tectonic stress. The monitoring station, localted in Rome and Pisa (Italy), used two types of radio receivers to continuosly monitor the electromagnetic spectrum located between the lower limit of the SELF band (Super Extremely Low Frequency) and upper limit of the VLF band (Very Low Frequency). In this study, as a demonstrative example, the seismicity in Japan is analyzed, as detected by the Italian monitoring stations.

Prediction of earthquakes has been long of interest of scientists to create a timely warning to save lives and reduce the damage. During the last few decades, scientists could record and classify the earthquakes’ effective parameters through careful studies. Precursor, as one of the most important parameters, presents the variation in the concentration of radon gas in the earth’s crust released by faults. Measuring and comparing this precursor requires the installation of appropriate hardware in the vicinity of the faults. The extraction of this gas and its lead ions will create additional precursors in the atmosphere layers. Through intelligent analyzing such historical meteorological data sets which are being measured and recorded in most parts of the world, the earthquakes can be predicted. In order to predict the magnitude and number of the earthquakes in this study, the particle filter-based and support vector regression is used. To evaluate the validity of the proposed method, the results are compared with multi layered perceptron neural network and support vector regression. The proposed method indicated the relationship between climatic data and the occurrence of earthquake leading to a precision of 96% for predicting the mean magnitude of earthquakes and a high accuracy of 78% for the expected earthquake count in a month. The accuracy of the method was measured by the correlation coefficient index.

Many animal species exhibit abnormal behaviors at hours or even days before earthquakes. Despite the fact that everybody is obvious to this situation, how animals react to the earthquakes and what they are reacting to is still a mystery. So experiments, observations and detailed studies to be done with animals may be an important development that can shed light on us when we estimate earthquakes precisely.
For centuries, similar animal intuitions appeared in earthquakes. The violence of the broadcast fish was recorded, leaving the birds out of their hives in panic. He claimed that countless pet-friendly animals behaved strangely before the earthquake, witnessing irritability and restlessness in the barking whirl when there was no apparent reason.
Andy Michael, a geophysicist working at USGS, says, "Animals react to a lot of things (hunger, defense, mating, tearing, etc.), so it's hard to have a controlled study to get an advanced warning signal (national geographic).
Prior to the earthquake, the history of observations of abnormal animal behavior was ignored by historians and scientists from all over the world who accepted it as largely non-scientific studies.
In world renowned geophysicist T. Rikitake (1982), it is important that legends are not all true, scientists should look at what they can contain without prejudice. From statistical analysis of all available data, such behavior can sometimes be used as an extremely important short-term seismic precursor (Tong, W., K., 1988).

Before and after the powerful Japanese magnitude 8.9 earthquake of 11 March 2011 some gravitational effects were registered in large areas across the Eastern Hemisphere as far as 9,000 km away from the earthquake's epicenter. The gravity anomalies were measured experimentally using ATROPATENA stations, new physical registering devices deployed in Indonesia (Yogyakarta), Pakistan (Islamabad), Azerbaijan (Baku) and Turkey (Istanbul). The stations continuously measure changes in time of the natural gravitational field in three mutually perpendicular directions. It has been established that indications of the Cavendish balance can be influenced by the dynamics of lithospheric stress fields altering the density and mass of large rock strata under the measuring stations before strong earthquakes. The authors believe that those stresses can be carried by tectonic waves. The effects registered provide a theoretical and experimental basis for initiating creation of an international network for monitoring and early warning of seismic hazards. Variations of the measured values of the gravitational constant G have been repeatedly registered by scientists from a number of countries (1, 2). The results of research of variations in G were published in World Data Center (3). In (4,5), it is shown that variations of the gravitational constant have a certain cyclicity.

The establishment of the tsunami warning system is based on the fact, that the seismic waves propagate faster then tsunami wave. The tsunami wave arrive in the shore line after the earthquake parameters can be determined, so that there is time left to evaluate the earthquake, whether the earthquake is tsunamigenic or not, disseminated the information or warning to the target area, and finally to do evacuation if necessary. For the tele-tsunami, in which the tsunami will arrive in the beach more then one hour after the origin time of earthquake, generally there is enough time to do all of those processes, so that the warning can be disseminate in 100 % confidence level. For local tsunami, in which the tsunami will arrive in the beach less then one hour, the warning is disseminated in the lower the confidence level. For example, Indonesia Tsunami Warning System (InaTEWS) is designed for local tsunami warning for Indonesian region. Any tsunami-genic earthquake occurs in the Indian Ocean plate boundary, the tsunami wave will sweep the closest shore line within 20-40 minutes after the origin time of the earthquake. The warning is determined just only based on the evaluation of the earthquake parameters and tsunami modeling. It is difficult to add sea level data to increase the confidence level of he warning. Although the confidence level is lower, the tsunami warning could be disseminated. In some cases, especially for the eastern of Indonesia, the tsunami can be generated within inner sea, such as Flores sea, Banda sea, Ceram sea, Maluku sea, and any others. In that cases, tsunami wave will reach the closest shore line within 10 minutes or less. This tsunami may be called as very local tsunami. By evaluating the time line for issuing the tsunami warning, it is clear that very critical to disseminate tsunami warning based on the available technology recently. The effectiveness of the warning is very small, therefore another possibility warning for very local tsunami should be designed. In this presentation, we propose to use natural signs as the warning. As we might know that in general tsunami can be generated by large earthquake. This kind earthquake could be felt strongly by most peoples. This natural sign could be applied as a tsunami warning. The other possibility is to use rather simple technology, as compliment to the natural