Lake Victoria

The Coupled Routing and Excess STorage model (CREST, jointly developed by the University of Oklahoma and NASA SERVIR) is a distributed hydrological model developed to simulate the spatial and temporal variation of land surface, and subsurface water fluxes and storages by cell-to-cell simulation. CREST's distinguishing characteristics include: (1) distributed rainfall–runoff generation and cell-to-cell routing; (2) coupled runoff generation and routing via three feedback mechanisms; and (3) representation of sub-grid cell variability of soil moisture storage capacity and sub-grid cell routing (via linear reservoirs). The coupling between the runoff generation and routing mechanisms allows detailed and realistic treatment of hydrological variables such as soil moisture. Furthermore, the representation of soil moisture variability and routing processes at the sub-grid scale enables the CREST model to be readily scalable to multi-scale modelling research. This paper presents the model development and demonstrates its applicability for a case study in the Nzoia basin located in Lake Victoria, Africa. Citation Wang, J., Yang, H., Li, L., Gourley, J. J., Sadiq, I. K., Yilmaz, K. K., Adler, R. F., Policelli, F. S., Habib, S., Irwn, D., Limaye, A. S., Korme, T. & Okello, L. (2011) The coupled routing and excess storage (CREST) distributed hydrological model. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(1), 84–98.Le modèle couplé routage et stockage des excédents (CREST, développé conjointement par l'Université de l'Oklahoma et NASA SERVIR) est un modèle hydrologique distribué développé pour simuler les variations spatiales et temporelles des flux d'eau de surface et souterraine ainsi que les stockages, par simulation de cellule à cellule. Les caractéristiques distinctives de CREST sont les suivantes: (1) production pluie–débit distribuée et routage de cellule à cellule; (2) couplage de la production et du routage du ruissellement via trois mécanismes de rétroaction; et (3) représentation de la variabilité sub-cellulaire de la capacité de stockage en eau du sol et du routage infra-cellulaire (via des réservoirs linéaires). Le couplage entre la genèse du ruissellement et les mécanismes de routage permet un traitement détaillé et réaliste des variables hydrologiques telles que l'humidité du sol. En outre, la représentation de la variabilité de l'humidité du sol et des processus de routage à l'échelle sub-cellulaire permet au modèle CREST d'être facilement étendu à la recherche sur la modélisation multi-échelles. Cet article présente le développement du modèle et démontre son applicabilité pour une étude de cas dans le bassin de la Nzoia, Lac Victoria, Afrique.

We modeled surface wetness at high resolution, using a dynamic hydrology model, to predict flood and swamp water mosquito abundances. Historical meteorologic data, as well as topographic, soil, and vegetation data, were used to model surface wetness and identify potential fresh and swamp water breeding habitats in two northern New Jersey watersheds. Surface wetness was positively associated with the subsequent abundance of the dominant floodwater mosquito species, Aedes vexans, and the swamp water species, Anopheles walkeri. The subsequent abundance of Culex pipiens, a species that breeds in polluted, eutrophic waters, was negatively correlated with local modeled surface wetness. These associations permit real-time monitoring and forecasting of these floodwater and nonfloodwater species at high spatial and temporal resolution. These predictions will enable public health agencies to institute control measures before the mosquitoes emerge as adults, when their role as transmitters of disease comes into play.

Water resources systems are designed and operated on assumption of stationary hydrology. Existence of trends and other changes in the data invalidates this assumption, and detection of the changes in hydrological time series should help us revise the approaches used in assessing, designing and operating our systems. In addition, trend and step change studies help us understand the impact of man’s activities (e.g. urbanisation, deforestation, dam construction, agricultural activities, etc.) on the hydrological cycle. Trends and step changes in the seasonal and annual total rainfall for 20 stations in the Lake Victoria basin were analysed. The seasonal rainfall for any station in a given year was defined in two ways: (1) fixed time period where the rainy seasons were taken as occurring from March–May (long rains) and from October–December (short rains); and (2) variable periods where the rainy seasons were taken as the three consecutive months with maximum total rainfall covering the period of January–June (long rains) and July–December (short rains), to take into account the fact that the onset of rainy seasons within the basin varies from year to year and from one station to the next. For each station, sub datasets were derived covering different periods (all available data at the station, 1941–1980, 1961–1990, 1971–end of each station’s time series). The trends were analysed using the Mann-Kendall method, while the step changes were analysed using the Worsley Likelihood method. The results show that positive trends predominate, with most stations showing trend being located in the northern part of the basin, though this pattern is not conclusive. In all, 17% of the cases have trends, of which 67% are positive. The 1960s represent a significant upward jump in the basin rainfall. Seasonal rainfall analysis shows that the short rains tend to have more trends than the long rains. The impact of the varying month of onset of the rainy season is that the results from analyzing the fixed-period and variable-period time series are rarely the same, meaning the two series have different characteristics. It may be argued that the variable-period time series are more reliable as a basis for analysing trends and step changes, since these time series reflect more closely the actual variability in rainy seasons from one year to the next. The fixed-period analysis would, on the other hand, find more practical use in planning.

The malacofauna of the Nile is poor compared to that of the Congo and its degree of endemicity is lower. While the highest species richness of the Congo Basin is in stenotopic taxa that live in the rivers and lakes, the highest diversity in the Nile Basin occurs in eurytopic taxa living in fringe habitats such as temporary pools. The paucity of endemics that need perennial waters as well in the Lower Nile as in the White Nile confirms the geological evidence indicating instability and discontinuity in water supply during Plio-Pleistocene times. The fauna of the Nile is predominantly Afrotropical in the Lower Nile and exclusively Afrotropical south of the junction of the White Nile and Blue Nile. Of all sub-basins, the degree of endemicity (either zero or two species) is lowest in the Equatorial Nile, indicating that the perennial aquatic environment in this sub-basin is young (probably Holocene) and lending support to the idea that the Bahr el Arab and White Nile Transcontinental Rift System were hydrologically unstable, with endorheic, alkaline lakes during most of the Plio-Pleistocene (Salama, 1997). In the Lower (Egyptian) Nile and in the Ethiopian Highlands palaearctic faunal components occur, consisting of widespread species and of a limited number of endemics of palaearctic origin, related to Levantine species. Most of these taxa first appear in the fossil record around 2.5 Ma. There is no evidence that the Nile functioned as an invasion route for Eurasiatic species prior to that time. Only Theodoxus niloticus is possibly of Paratethyan origin and may have invaded in the Late Miocene. The main invasion of freshwater molluscs into Africa appears to have occurred via the Horn of Africa in Middle and Late Miocene times. In the East African Rift, a diversified fauna occurs that only shares a fraction of species with the Nile Basin north of the Albert Nile (> ~5° N). In the equatorial headwaters, some species from southern Africa reach their northern limit, but the main community consists of species that are either endemic to one of the rift lakes or endemic to the region stretching from Turkana to the Kivu Basins. There hence exists a distinct East African bio-province, that was already recognisable in Pliocene assemblages and that had developed before the present lakes formed in the Late Pleistocene. Concerning the young age of Lake Victoria and the occurrence of an endemic cichlid superflock in the lake, the fossil molluscan record points to a persistence in the East African Rift of freshwater bodies sufficiently extensive to harbour a molluscan community — and ipso facto also fish — during periods of aridity/hyperaridity. The hypothesis of Verheyen et al. (2003, 2004), that the stem lineages of the East African haplochromines, presently inhabiting Lakes Victoria, Kyoga, Rukwa, Albert, George, Edward and surrounding waters, already existed during the Late Pliocene is consistent with the fossil evidence. The location of the area(s) of refuge (around Mount Elgon?) remains hypothetic, however. The fossil records of the Turkana Basin, Tugen Hills and Albertine Basin show that around the Miocene/Pliocene boundary, two distinctive tropical molluscan palaeo-bioprovinces existed in equatorial Africa: an East African and a Congolian province. Regular incursions in both provinces during the Pliocene by elements of a third group, the so-called ‘Nilotic’ community, indicate the presence of a third distinctive Afrotropical palaeo-bioprovince situated more to the north. The molluscan community of the Chad Basin contains the same ‘Nilotic’ species (or closely related forms) as found in the Egyptian and Sudanese Nile but is more diverse, particularly in unionoids. Considering the climatic instability in the region of the different Nile Basins north of ~5° NL, the Neogene Chad-Eosahabi/Palaeosahabi system sensu Griffin (2006) is considered the most likely region of origin of the ‘Nilotic’ malacofauna, while the southern part of the Chad Basin (Chari-Logone system) may have acted as a refuge of this ‘Nilotic’ fauna during arid phases. During Late Pliocene and Pleistocene wet phases the White Nile may have contained a perennial hydrological system, creating opportunities of exchange of aquatic faunas with Chad and the East African Rift System.