Manoa

This research evaluates and discusses distinct types of data to propose the possible existence of an extinct lake which was reported by the chronicles and depicted on most South American maps from the end of the 16th century to the mid-19th century. The methodology and results derive from the analysis and combination of historical sources, indigenous oral traditions, geological and archaeological studies, digital elevation models (DEM) as well as aerial, and satellite remote sensing surveys performed by NASA's Shuttle Radar Topography Missions (SRTM), the Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) instrument, and the TanDEM-X synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sensors at the German Aerospace Center (DLR). In addition, an assemblage of artifacts discovered within the study area is also assessed and contrasted to the historical and the remote sensing results.

The future is by its very nature uncertain and unknown, and only by discussion and debate regarding how the future may develop can we adequately prepare for what may lie ahead. A collaborative scenario development process was developed with the European Construction Institute (ECI) Industry Futures Task Force. This involved investigating and debating the range of issues and factors that might impact upon the European construction industry in the next couple of decades, which resulted in the development of four future scenarios for the ...

Service convergence, content digitization, rapid and flexible service delivery, reduction of capital and
operating costs, economies of scale, changes in telecom policy and regulation, and ever increasing
competition have been key factors in the evolution of virtualized Next Generation Networks (vNGN). IPcentric
converged networks aim to provide a multitude of services over a single network infrastructure.
Tremendous success and benefit of server virtualization in data centers is driving the adaption of network
virtualization. Network virtualization is applicable to enterprise data center, and enterprise as well as wide
area networks. The focus of this paper is network virtualization aspects of service providers’ next
generation network. The key factors for moving to virtualized network is optimal use and sharing of
network infrastructure even among competitive service providers, programmability of network and rapid
introduction of new service and standard based on open platform rather than proprietary implementation.
Evolving Software Defined Network (SDN) and Network Function Virtualization (NFV) shall enable
common network infrastructure sharing, control, and management at a higher layer thus making network
devices more generic and less intelligent, thus enabling cost competitiveness and quick service delivery.
Network virtualization shall enable key benefits such as lower cost, flexibility, efficiency, and security,
However, the deployment of virtualized next generation networks has brought its unique challenges for
network managers and planners, as the network has to be planned in a comprehensive way with effective
management of virtual network elements, its correlation with physical infrastructure and monitoring of
control functions and server platforms. This paper discusses generic next generation network, its
virtualization, and addresses the challenges related to the planning and managing of virtualized next
generation networks. This paper proposes a reference OSS model enabling effective management of vNGN,
which is key contribution of this paper.

Development of sustainable water management strategies involves identifi cation of vulnerability and adaptation possibilities, followed by an effect analysis of these adaptation strategies under different possible futures. Recent scenario studies on water management were mainly ‘what-if’ assessments in one or two future situations. The future is, however, more complex and dynamic. It involves general trends and unexpected events in both the water and the social system. Moreover, the two systems interact: society responds to events and the state of the water system changes in response to management. In this paper we discuss a transdisciplinary approach. Key elements in the concept are (1) the model of pressure, state, impact and response, (2) the Perspectives method to consider uncertainties of social and natural systems and (3) the evaluation of the system using transient scenarios in which we consider time series of trends, events and interaction between the water system and society. The effect analysis is executed with an integrated assessment meta-model based on simple cause–effect relations and response curves.

This paper highlights the importance of Software architecture in the present IT industry scenario. It  focuses on different architectural styles and their suitability in existing projects. The paper provides an overall view of the importance of Software Architecture in the present context.The intricacies involved in the design issues are also highlighted

The future of human life in the world's river deltas depends on the success of water management. To deal with uncertainties about the future, policymakers in the Netherlands have used scenarios to develop water management strategies for the coastal zone of the Rhine-Meuse delta. In this paper we reflect on six decades of scenario use in the Netherlands, and provide recommendations for future studies. Based on two criteria, 'Decision robustness' and 'Learning success', we conclude that (1) the possibilities for robust decisionmaking increased through a paradigm shift from predicting to exploring futures, but the scenario method is not yet fully exploited for decisionmaking under uncertainty; and (2) the scenarios enabled learning about possible impacts of developments and effectiveness of policy options. New scenario approaches are emerging to deal with the deep uncertainties water managers are currently facing.

The future is by its very nature uncertain and unknown, and only by discussion and debate regarding how the future may develop can we adequately prepare for what may lie ahead. A collaborative scenario development process was developed with the European Construction Institute (ECI) Industry Futures Task Force. This involved investigating and debating the range of issues and factors that might impact upon the European construction industry in the next couple of decades, which resulted in the development of four future scenarios for the ...

Social, natural and cultural systems are changing rapidly, influencing the future of Europe's fresh waters. One of the drivers shaping this future is the implementation of the Water Framework Directive. Participatory scenario development is well-suited to the challenges posed by the WFD to develop a long-term view by involving stakeholders. In this paper we analyse the process and results of a series of stakeholder workshops to develop scenarios at pan-European level. Specifically, we aim at analysing the method and results of combining a backcasting methodology and exploratory scenario development process. Four exploratory scenarios (narrative storylines) were developed, in first instance based on a set of existing European scenarios. Results matched expectations; the process produced stories that are complex, integrated, and rich in detail. During the backcasting exercise, four timelines were constructed, each of which took one exploratory scenario as context. The backcasting process established a strong link with the exploratory scenarios by identifying a large number of obstacles and opportunities in the realisation of those timelines. An analysis across all backcasts yielded a list of 15 robust elements, i.e. elements that are potentially effective in all exploratory scenarios. A stakeholder questionnaire showed that overall there was a widespread satisfaction with both the process and the results. Stakeholders were satisfied with the overall methodology and the exploratory scenarios and somewhat more critical on the backcasting exercise and resulting robust strategies. Above all, we hope to have demonstrated that it is conceptually appealing, methodologically feasible, and practically useful to combine exploratory scenario development and backcasting analysis.

Recent decades have witnessed various industry-focused government reports that have urged construction stakeholders to look further ahead by focusing on future-oriented issues such as continuous performance improvement, sustainability, training, and research and development. Evidence from a recent industry workshop of senior construction managers has shown that the majority have been involved in the formulation of long-term strategic planning and decision making, but in an informal, unstructured and ad-hoc manner using ...

This monograph series presents case studies of approaches to complex problems which exist in human systems throughout the globe. The first issue of the monograph illustrates an approach for creating a structured understanding of the global challenges delineated by the Millennium Project and critical problems identified in the Predicament of Mankind Proposal. It concludes with a reflection on implications for New Strategic Theory and Social Mediation - Communication Theory for democratization.

[L’innovazione in architettura e nel progetto urbano.].
Nel mondo delle scienze tecnologiche, l’idea di innovare l’architettura a partire dalla sua forme e consistenza materiale, si basa sul convincimento - di natura deterministica - che la percezione di uno stato di disagio ed inadeguatezza, rispetto a mutate condizioni ambientali, spinga le società umane a ricercare forme organizzative più soddisfacenti e idonee a garantirne il benessere. In tale visione, l’innovazione si attua in modo organizzato, secondo filiere e processi produttivi che determinano un profondo impatto culturale e strutturale nel dominio delle scienze umane e dell’architettura nella fattispecie.
Sul versante opposto, gli studiosi dell’arte sono propensi ad individuare precisi capisaldi logico-filosofici tendenti a negare il concetto di progresso nella vita delle forme rivendicandone, per l’appunto, la piena autonomia, sino al rischio dell’auto-referenzialità. Si individua, piuttosto la
tendenza alla variazione basata sulla libertà combinatoria e sulla creazione di codici regolatori interni. Loro scopo è la creazione di equilibri nelle nuove composizioni, col ricorso a figure elementari e loro riproducibilità – nel linguaggio tradizionale classico – o a tecnologie digitali, nella ricerca di inusitate sperimentazioni formali e spaziali. In ambo i casi il processo di produzione di nuove forme funzionali presuppone la circolarità di temi, col riuso di stilemi e morfemi esistenti ma diversamente combinati tra loro.
[Ipotesi di ricerca]: -- In tale quadro di riferimenti relazionali, si fonda la riflessione odierna: - individuare i meccanismi che presiedono alla formazione del concetto di innovazione, in grado di imprimere – in momenti di crisi – azioni ed assetti di significativa discontinuità rispetto agli equilibri preesistenti; - verificare se nella teoria della progettazione architettonica e urbana, l’innovazione sia o meno in grado di prefigurare vie d’uscita rispetto ad attuali situazioni – di marcata conflittualità sociale e asfissia culturale - in cui si dibattono le discipline progettuali.; - analizzare i casi in cui il ricorso a prefigurazioni spinte nel futuro prossimo e remoto - si basino su conoscenze consolidate o in via di sviluppo; - valutare se la postulazione di ordini possibili a prescindere dal dominio di conoscenze strutturate in forma logica, consenta di ottenere o meno significativi risultati in ambito progettuale;
[Tesi:] Il saggio propone - attraverso la presentazione di progetti e manifestazioni variamente collocati nell’ arco degli ultimi 100 anni - alcune tra le più originali idee che stanno alla base del concetto di innovazione in rapporto alla tradizione, ovvero, focalizzare quali siano le questioni, di natura funzionale e sostanziale, che individuano i caratteri di “progresso” nel progetto architettonico e urbano.

Ability to understand the future holds the key to sustained competitive advantage. The key question is how to embed this ability into the strategic management skill-sets of companies using appropriate tools, techniques and processes, and involving the appropriate stakeholders. Futures methodology literature suggests that scenario planning is a powerful technique for looking at the future that is rarely used in construction. An implementation framework for company scenario planning is proposed derived from relevant parts of the ...

This document is the first in a series of guidance instructions given to participating college students to commence a futures studies exercise. The exercise was a requirement of my 100-level introductory course to futures studies and foresight, briefly described as follows. "EOSET-105" (Earth Observing Space Endurance Team Mission 105)  was a scenario planning exercise motivated by a fictional space mission.  Within the exercise, the crew of EOSET-105 expected to fly aboard a specially built Earth-orbiting space station for a full year as the first in a 20 year series of year-long EOSET missions. The EOSET-105 "crew members" (i.e., students) were told they had two primary objectives. First, to observe Earth's ecosystems and to recognize & report possible changes, anomalies, and new insights. Second, to conduct long duration spaceflight (LDSF) research on crew dynamics, and physical and mental health during its year on orbit.

This Minnesota animal health vision document is the culmination of more than a year of research and disciplined examination of the world that is evolving to determine how Minnesota’s industry will be impacted by these changes. It is the first paper of its kind that examines six primary bioscience-based industries individually and simultaneously, so that overlapping opportunities can be identified and leveraged. It is intended to help Minnesota decision makers in all sectors involved in the bioscience-based economy. Through the detailed Strategic Flexibility process that has been adopted, information will be made available to leadership so more clear, confident and coordinated decisions about elements of our state’s economic strategy can be made, and our communities’ participation in these industries enhanced. The process is not intended to pick "winners" or "losers" but to make investments that provide Minnesota with the strongest possible infrastructure to help our companies compete now, and in the future, in the industries of their choosing. The goal of this process is to focus on ensuring that Minnesota remains a strong global leader in the animal health industry and helps to shape the industry’s future.

"The purpose of this study was to identify skill needs for the emerging agrifood nanotechnology sector and to determine how agricultural education can contribute to human resource and workforce development for this sector.  As nanotechnology continues to advance in food and agriculture, there is the need for pragmatic decisions as to how to prepare the workforce. This mixed methods study incorporated disparate fields of systems and complexity theories; nanoscience and nanotechnology; science policy; agricultural education; human resource development and workforce education.  The study followed a four-step process involving different methods and approaches. The first phase involved a comprehensive systematic evidence review (SER) and analysis of the literature.  This phase of the study also helped to identify key experts and formulate questions for the in-depth and semi-structured interviews and also quantitative survey instruments. A comprehensive stakeholder analysis was done using primary data obtained from experts.

The second phase of the study used multi-criteria approaches for value elicitation (which included qualitative and quantitative data) from key stakeholders and experts to identify current and future skill needs in the agrifood nanotechnology sector. The third phase of the study included quantitative analysis, Qualitative Systems Analysis (QSA) and Strategic Flexibility Analysis (SFA) of evidence from the literature review and the multi-criteria value elicitation of experts and stakeholders. The final phase of the study created a generic systems model from the quantitative analysis, QSA and SFA to describe holistically the current and future skill needs for agrifood nanotechnology workers as well as how educational practice and policy can meet these needs.

The main conclusions from this study are that: (1) future shortages and skills gaps in agrifood nanotechnology are expected to increase but at the same time there is still quite a lot of uncertainty about future developments and impacts of nanotechnology in the agrifood sector  to accurately determine future demand and supply of agrifood nanoskilled workforce. (2) Extra demands in high qualified workers with a background in sciences and engineering (PhD, MSc) will be needed. (3) STEM education at the K-12 levels is even more important than ever and that K-12 nanotechnology programs should be a seamless part of the overall STEM initiative. And most importantly STEM education should not be devoid of employability skills. (4) In addition to various types of technical skills that come with advances in any technology, and thus nanotechnology, employability skills and competencies such as problem solving and ability to work in an interdisciplinary context are considered very important.
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This paper explores how the history–futures interface can inform a set of concrete adaptation options to climate change for stakeholders in South East Queensland, Australia. It is based on research undertaken as part of the Commonwealth funded South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (SEQ-CARI) that profiled 33 historical case studies to identify common themes in the ways societies responded to stress. The case studies are intended to provide a context for thinking about adaptive capacity with stakeholders in the ...

This exploratory project emerged from the question, "do different scenario building methods generate distinctively different outputs?" Using base data from a completed scenario project, the authors and volunteer participants re-processed the raw and filtered drivers and interview data through four different scenario building methods: the 2x2 matrix approach; causal layered analysis; the Manoa approach; and the scenario archetypes approach. We retained the issue question from the original project ("what are possible futures for civil society?") as our focus. This exploratory comparison confirmed that different scenario generation methods yield not only different narratives and insights, but qualitatively different participant experiences.

The global construction industry creates high-profile structures and critical infrastructure systems, yet is frequently rebuked for its frequent poor performance and lack of forward thinking and future planning. Looking to the future, the industry is likely to be driven by a combination of evolving national and international policy on sustainability, the legacy of the local and global economic problems and the increasing pace of technological innovation. In the longer term, a more complicated and inter-related collection of drivers is at play, including demographic shifts, policy and societal evolutions, energy and water security, as well as sustainability pressures such as the changing climate and its effect on the resilience of our critical infrastructures. A more futures-orientated and inter-connected approach to global construction, projects and practices, is therefore required in order to create a truly sustainable industry, and hence planet, for all. Only by planning ahead for the longer term, and working together at a local and global level, can the global construction industry hope to move forwards collectively to creating a truly sustainable and resilient built environment, fit for purpose, fit for now, but also fit for the long term.