Abstract The use of model output statistics (MOS) in operational weather element prediction has been hindered since the mid-1980s by frequent changes in the operational numerical weather prediction models that supply the predictors for... more
Abstract The use of model output statistics (MOS) in operational weather element prediction has been hindered since the mid-1980s by frequent changes in the operational numerical weather prediction models that supply the predictors for the weather element forecasts. Once the model changes, a new archive of model output must be collected for a long enough period that statistically stable equations can be developed. This paper describes a new statistical interpretation system that addresses this problem and permits the rapid adaptation of the statistical forecast to changes in the formulation of the driving model. In comparison with traditional MOS development, the new system incorporates two main features. First, the data are stored in the form of the cross-products matrices used in multivariate statistical techniques rather than as raw observations and forecasts. It is these matrices that are updated regularly with new output from the model. Second, equations are developed by a weighted blending of the ne...
