The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and subsequent “Great Lockdown” have profoundly disrupted the oil and gas industry, causing a collapse in prices and slashing of investment spending across the sector. Because of the severity of the...
moreThe coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and subsequent “Great Lockdown” have profoundly disrupted the oil and gas industry, causing a collapse in prices and slashing of investment spending across the sector. Because of the severity of the crisis, some oil companies requested direct government bailout — wrongly in the authors’ view — while others hoped for a relaxation of the fiscal terms. The objective of this paper is to analyze whether host governments might revisit their upstream fiscal regime following the crisis, and if they do, what measures they are likely to adopt in the more immediate term. The list of factors that drive fiscal changes is long; the analysis carried out in this paper focuses on three common and interrelated key drivers — namely oil price, investment trend, and production performance. For illustrative purposes, the paper studies 10 major offshore provinces both in the OECD and emerging markets, which are considered directly competing for international capital. These provinces share similar commercial and technical challenges but government fiscal responses tend to differ, depending on several factors, including the way the fiscal regime is designed, the health of the industry before the crisis, and degree of economic dependence on oil revenues. The analysis confirms the inherent fiscal instability in the oil and gas sector, with the prominent role of oil prices, investment, and production trend as some of the common drivers of fiscal changes. Other factors include the dependence of an economy on oil revenues and the “neighborhood” effect; politics also play a role, albeit more muted. Even in the world’s most stable fiscal regime — that is, the Norwegian regime — changes have been implemented to adapt the regime to changes in local and international conditions. The Norwegian experience confirms that no fiscal regime is cast in stone, but changes can be made while maintaining the stability of government take. Overall, there seems to be consistency in the direction of travel in the more immediate future; the perception is that the industry is going through an unprecedented cycle and an alleviation of the fiscal and regulatory burden may be needed to sustain investment, production, and revenues. However, the reaction of host governments will differ, as are the measures that might be introduced and the speed at which they will be pursued. The longer low oil prices prevail, the higher the pressure to accelerate fiscal reforms is, especially if investment remains subdued.