The people we could be: Or how to be £500 better off, build a fairer society and a better planet

ALEX BELL was Head of Policy to the First Minister of Scotland, Alex Salmond. Previously he was a BBC correspondent, a writer for The Observer, The Herald and The Irish Times, and a businessman. He lives in Edinburgh with his wife, his daughter and two dogs.

Luath Press is an independently owned and managed book publishing company based in Scotland, and is not aligned to any political party or grouping. Viewpoints is an occasional series exploring issues of current and future relevance.

By the same author:

Peak Water: How We Built Civilisation on Water and Drained the World Dry, Luath Press, 2009, revised and updated 2012.

The people we could be

or, how to be £500 better off,

build a fairer society and a safer world

ALEX BELL

Luath Press Limited

EDINBURGH

www.luath.co.uk

First published 2014

ISBN (PBK): 978-1-910021-55-2

ISBN (EBK): 978-1-910324-18-9

The publishers acknowledge the support of Creative Scotland towards the publication of this volume.

The author’s right to be identified as author of this work under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 has been asserted.

© Alex Bell 2014

Contents

Preface

PART ONE The People We Are

PART TWO The People We Could Be

PART THREE The People Must Choose

Conclusion

Preface

I’M ALEX BELL, former Head of Policy to Alex Salmond, First Minister of Scotland. This is an outline of the White Paper I would have written to make the case for substantial powers coming home to Scotland. To address social inequality, democratic failure, economic instability and global threats we have to take responsibility for ourselves.

I was asked to join the government in 2010 to develop the case for Devolution Max. That means Edinburgh taking control of everything bar Foreign Affairs, Defence and Macro-economic policy. I had written an article arguing for this in 2001 for the Sunday Times. Appointed Head of Policy after the election of 2011, I helped negotiate the Edinburgh Agreement for holding the referendum and set up the work-streams in the civil service supporting the White Paper. I spent two years thinking about the future not just of Scotland but also of democracy and people’s rights in general. This book is a distillation of those thoughts.

The People We Could Be weighs up the challenge, suggests a solution and argues that the existing UK can’t, or won’t, deliver on that solution. We have no choice but to argue for maximum devolution, not as an act of nationalism but of social progress. As Devo Max is not on the ballot paper, I’ll be voting YES.

Any week of the year you can attend a conference on the social problems of Scotland. There are countless books and academic studies on our exceptional bad health, life prospects and neglect of children. Equally there are libraries on the kind of political choices Scotland can make, and the wider global challenges of economic volatility or climate change. I decided not to add to this pile – this is not a footnoted or costed work – instead, it is an argument that sets out a path and ignites debate. Our first duty is to decide where we are going.

I’ve avoided the dull debate between economists on who holds economic power in the UK. Suffice to say I reject the idea that democratic societies should be led by corporations, banks or, indeed, the US Government. As humans we are duty-bound to push the limits of what is known in search of something better. If this generation gives up on that because moneymen don’t want to change then we betray future generations.

I write about Scotland because it is what I know. The analysis and suggested policies could apply to other parts of the UK or elsewhere in the world. While each place needs its own solutions, we face common problems. I argue for power to be brought closer to the people – any people.

PART ONE

The People We Are

THE WORLD WE live in is changing. Never have humans known so much, been so healthy or so rich. Yet we are threatened by financial crashes, democratic decline, climate change and ill-health. We live in contradictory times.

The world is always changing but the present shift feels big. Looking back we can see the period of 1945 to 2008 as representing great success in the rise of nations, many of them democratic, in the building of welfare states and the acceptance of human rights. We became a lot richer in this time and saw a hostile world order evolve into the beginnings of globalisation.

This period is over and the new era is yet to be shaped. The rapid increase in nations may have ended 19th-century colonialism, but the limits of the nation in addressing poverty, ill-health and human rights failures are evident. Welfare states are creaking at the seams and popular opinion is much less accepting of them. Democracy as currently operated is failing in established states through a lack of trust and engagement. Globalisation, underpinned by international finance, has taken a body blow in the crash of 2008 and we are yet to see a more robust model emerge.

We sit between the old and the new, unsure of where to go. There is comfort in turning to the past and trying to preserve the 20th century order of states and power hierarchies. It’s always nicer to hold on to what we know. That is the reactionary thing to do, to cling to the wreckage and hope the next storm is a wee bit gentler. The progressive choice is to accept change and help shape the new world.

For a multitude of reasons, Scotland is having a referendum at this time. We cannot cast a vote or get involved in the argument and ignore the bigger global picture. We have a choice between reaction and progression.

Our public debate doesn’t seem to represent these forces – the discussion is often superficial. We are either patronised on big issues like pension failure and welfare reform or we are bullied into accepting ill-conceived reforms. What we want is an honest conversation on how to prepare for the future.

Voters in Scotland and the UK face two referendums. In September 2014 Scots will vote on ‘independence’ while in 2017 the UK may vote on ‘independence’ from the European Union. Everyone involved in these arguments accepts there is no such thing as ‘independence’ in the modern world. You and I have to work out what is meant by the debate and how relevant it is to our needs.

This book is in three parts. The first will set out the problems we face. It also asks if we have the language and ideas to tackle them. Can we build a fairer society in an age when we don’t trust politicians and have run out of big ideas?

The second part looks at a way of addressing the problems. It is not a complex economic work, but a series of policies that would make life fairer, society more stable and our future happiness more secure.

The third part looks at how the options before voters in the referendums relate to actual policies that will change things for the better.

Context

You are here. Scotland. A country sitting on the edge of Europe surrounded mainly by sea and a land border with England. Over five million people live on a landmass of 78,000 square kilometres. The UK has 70 million people on 240,000 square kilometres. Scotland has a third of the land, but a fraction of the people of the UK.

Most of the people are in an urban belt that runs from Glasgow in the west to Edinburgh in the east and up to the cities of Dundee and Aberdeen. The population was predicted to steadily decline in the 1960s but is now rising. People from states like Poland are settling down and having families.

The demographics show that 17 per cent is over 65, 66 per cent are over 16 and under 65, and 17 per cent are under 16. Each year 56,000 babies are born and 54,000 people die. While births outnumber deaths, the effect of people living for longer means our population is ageing.

The people who live in this part of the world like to think they are religious more than they are; church attendance is falling. In effect Scotland is a secular society with a cultural bias to Christianity. Scotland is unusually white for an era of mass immigration – only four per cent is from non-Caucasian ethnicities. Scotland is tolerant to the same degree as other nations, which is to say racist like other nations, mainly toward people of different skin colour.

We are one of three nations and one province in a political union called the United Kingdom. We have been in this union for 300 years. The UK has frequently changed in status and form. It once sat at the top of a pile of countries in a huge empire. Now it has a scattering of dependencies. Ireland was once part of it, and then left, while a new entity called Northern Ireland stayed with the UK. All the parts of this broken empire have different tax rules and laws – most use sterling as the currency, but not all.

The UK’s future is being questioned by the two referendums. Are these the right changes and if others are better, why are they not on offer? For example opinion polls show a significant number of Scots want powers over immigration, tax and welfare but to stay in the UK. This is not an option they are offered. We are offered a referendum on leaving the EU by politicians who don’t want to leave the EU, but not a referendum on more powers by politicians who apparently do want us to have more powers.

Polls reveal many Scots do not think they have the information to base a decision on how to vote in the 2014 referendum. There is a large amount of information and it may be that what people are actually saying is it is surprising how uncertain and subjective the details of a modern state are.

Scotland is a rich nation – somewhere in the world’s top rank of economies. She has a well-educated, English-speaking population used to the luxuries of wealth and European welfare policies. In historical terms, she has never had it so good.

We are healthier, longer living, better educated and richer than ever before. This is the best the human race has been, if measured by the number of people living comfortable lives. You are less likely to die in pain, be killed by a wild animal or industrial accident, endure a crippling condition, witness the death of your children or degenerate through a sexually transmitted disease.

You are less likely to be homeless, live in a hovel or be thrown out of your home by a cruel landlord. If you fall out of work, there will be financial support. If you fall ill, there will be medical help. Clean water will be on tap, power for your lights – the streets will largely be safe, the shops full of food and the chance of illegal imprisonment remote.

Having suffered exceptionally from industrial decline and the effect this had on health and communities, there is now solid evidence that Scotland’s health is improving, new economic activities are starting and she has a reasonable chance at succeeding in the future. It doesn’t sound like a crisis.

Crises

All ages think they face great challenges, but there is reason to think ours are very serious. How we organise ourselves on the planet, how we feed ourselves, who is in charge and how we make money is uncertain.

The most obvious of these is the financial crash. In 2007 and 2008, the world’s financial system