Add to Chrome
Add to Firefox
Add to EdgeMIRAI: Evaluating LLM Agents for Event Forecasting
Jul 01, 2024
Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have empowered LLM agents to autonomously collect world information, over which to conduct reasoning to solve complex problems. Given this capability, increasing interests have been put into employing LLM agents for predicting international events, which can influence decision-making and shape policy development on an international scale. Despite such a growing interest, there is a lack of a rigorous benchmark of LLM agents' forecasting capability and reliability. To address this gap, we introduce MIRAI, a novel benchmark designed to systematically evaluate LLM agents as temporal forecasters in the context of international events. Our benchmark features an agentic environment with tools for accessing an extensive database of historical, structured events and textual news articles. We refine the GDELT event database with careful cleaning and parsing to curate a series of relational prediction tasks with varying forecasting horizons, assessing LLM agents' abilities from short-term to long-term forecasting. We further implement APIs to enable LLM agents to utilize different tools via a code-based interface. In summary, MIRAI comprehensively evaluates the agents' capabilities in three dimensions: 1) autonomously source and integrate critical information from large global databases; 2) write codes using domain-specific APIs and libraries for tool-use; and 3) jointly reason over historical knowledge from diverse formats and time to accurately predict future events. Through comprehensive benchmarking, we aim to establish a reliable framework for assessing the capabilities of LLM agents in forecasting international events, thereby contributing to the development of more accurate and trustworthy models for international relation analysis.
BrainODE: Dynamic Brain Signal Analysis via Graph-Aided Neural Ordinary Differential Equations
Apr 30, 2024
Brain network analysis is vital for understanding the neural interactions regarding brain structures and functions, and identifying potential biomarkers for clinical phenotypes. However, widely used brain signals such as Blood Oxygen Level Dependent (BOLD) time series generated from functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) often manifest three challenges: (1) missing values, (2) irregular samples, and (3) sampling misalignment, due to instrumental limitations, impacting downstream brain network analysis and clinical outcome predictions. In this work, we propose a novel model called BrainODE to achieve continuous modeling of dynamic brain signals using Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE). By learning latent initial values and neural ODE functions from irregular time series, BrainODE effectively reconstructs brain signals at any time point, mitigating the aforementioned three data challenges of brain signals altogether. Comprehensive experimental results on real-world neuroimaging datasets demonstrate the superior performance of BrainODE and its capability of addressing the three data challenges.
Causal Graph ODE: Continuous Treatment Effect Modeling in Multi-agent Dynamical Systems
Feb 29, 2024
Real-world multi-agent systems are often dynamic and continuous, where the agents co-evolve and undergo changes in their trajectories and interactions over time. For example, the COVID-19 transmission in the U.S. can be viewed as a multi-agent system, where states act as agents and daily population movements between them are interactions. Estimating the counterfactual outcomes in such systems enables accurate future predictions and effective decision-making, such as formulating COVID-19 policies. However, existing methods fail to model the continuous dynamic effects of treatments on the outcome, especially when multiple treatments (e.g., "stay-at-home" and "get-vaccine" policies) are applied simultaneously. To tackle this challenge, we propose Causal Graph Ordinary Differential Equations (CAG-ODE), a novel model that captures the continuous interaction among agents using a Graph Neural Network (GNN) as the ODE function. The key innovation of our model is to learn time-dependent representations of treatments and incorporate them into the ODE function, enabling precise predictions of potential outcomes. To mitigate confounding bias, we further propose two domain adversarial learning-based objectives, which enable our model to learn balanced continuous representations that are not affected by treatments or interference. Experiments on two datasets (i.e., COVID-19 and tumor growth) demonstrate the superior performance of our proposed model.
Synergistic Signals: Exploiting Co-Engagement and Semantic Links via Graph Neural Networks
Dec 07, 2023
Given a set of candidate entities (e.g. movie titles), the ability to identify similar entities is a core capability of many recommender systems. Most often this is achieved by collaborative filtering approaches, i.e. if users co-engage with a pair of entities frequently enough, the embeddings should be similar. However, relying on co-engagement data alone can result in lower-quality embeddings for new and unpopular entities. We study this problem in the context recommender systems at Netflix. We observe that there is abundant semantic information such as genre, content maturity level, themes, etc. that complements co-engagement signals and provides interpretability in similarity models. To learn entity similarities from both data sources holistically, we propose a novel graph-based approach called SemanticGNN. SemanticGNN models entities, semantic concepts, collaborative edges, and semantic edges within a large-scale knowledge graph and conducts representation learning over it. Our key technical contributions are twofold: (1) we develop a novel relation-aware attention graph neural network (GNN) to handle the imbalanced distribution of relation types in our graph; (2) to handle web-scale graph data that has millions of nodes and billions of edges, we develop a novel distributed graph training paradigm. The proposed model is successfully deployed within Netflix and empirical experiments indicate it yields up to 35% improvement in performance on similarity judgment tasks.
TANGO: Time-Reversal Latent GraphODE for Multi-Agent Dynamical Systems
Oct 10, 2023
Learning complex multi-agent system dynamics from data is crucial across many domains, such as in physical simulations and material modeling. Extended from purely data-driven approaches, existing physics-informed approaches such as Hamiltonian Neural Network strictly follow energy conservation law to introduce inductive bias, making their learning more sample efficiently. However, many real-world systems do not strictly conserve energy, such as spring systems with frictions. Recognizing this, we turn our attention to a broader physical principle: Time-Reversal Symmetry, which depicts that the dynamics of a system shall remain invariant when traversed back over time. It still helps to preserve energies for conservative systems and in the meanwhile, serves as a strong inductive bias for non-conservative, reversible systems. To inject such inductive bias, in this paper, we propose a simple-yet-effective self-supervised regularization term as a soft constraint that aligns the forward and backward trajectories predicted by a continuous graph neural network-based ordinary differential equation (GraphODE). It effectively imposes time-reversal symmetry to enable more accurate model predictions across a wider range of dynamical systems under classical mechanics. In addition, we further provide theoretical analysis to show that our regularization essentially minimizes higher-order Taylor expansion terms during the ODE integration steps, which enables our model to be more noise-tolerant and even applicable to irreversible systems. Experimental results on a variety of physical systems demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method. Particularly, it achieves an MSE improvement of 11.5 % on a challenging chaotic triple-pendulum systems.
MedChatZH: a Better Medical Adviser Learns from Better Instructions
Sep 03, 2023Generative large language models (LLMs) have shown great success in various applications, including question-answering (QA) and dialogue systems. However, in specialized domains like traditional Chinese medical QA, these models may perform unsatisfactorily without fine-tuning on domain-specific datasets. To address this, we introduce MedChatZH, a dialogue model designed specifically for traditional Chinese medical QA. Our model is pre-trained on Chinese traditional medical books and fine-tuned with a carefully curated medical instruction dataset. It outperforms several solid baselines on a real-world medical dialogue dataset. We release our model, code, and dataset on https://github.com/tyang816/MedChatZH to facilitate further research in the domain of traditional Chinese medicine and LLMs.
Generalizing Graph ODE for Learning Complex System Dynamics across Environments
Jul 10, 2023
Learning multi-agent system dynamics has been extensively studied for various real-world applications, such as molecular dynamics in biology. Most of the existing models are built to learn single system dynamics from observed historical data and predict the future trajectory. In practice, however, we might observe multiple systems that are generated across different environments, which differ in latent exogenous factors such as temperature and gravity. One simple solution is to learn multiple environment-specific models, but it fails to exploit the potential commonalities among the dynamics across environments and offers poor prediction results where per-environment data is sparse or limited. Here, we present GG-ODE (Generalized Graph Ordinary Differential Equations), a machine learning framework for learning continuous multi-agent system dynamics across environments. Our model learns system dynamics using neural ordinary differential equations (ODE) parameterized by Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to capture the continuous interaction among agents. We achieve the model generalization by assuming the dynamics across different environments are governed by common physics laws that can be captured via learning a shared ODE function. The distinct latent exogenous factors learned for each environment are incorporated into the ODE function to account for their differences. To improve model performance, we additionally design two regularization losses to (1) enforce the orthogonality between the learned initial states and exogenous factors via mutual information minimization; and (2) reduce the temporal variance of learned exogenous factors within the same system via contrastive learning. Experiments over various physical simulations show that our model can accurately predict system dynamics, especially in the long range, and can generalize well to new systems with few observations.
Concept2Box: Joint Geometric Embeddings for Learning Two-View Knowledge Graphs
Jul 04, 2023
Knowledge graph embeddings (KGE) have been extensively studied to embed large-scale relational data for many real-world applications. Existing methods have long ignored the fact many KGs contain two fundamentally different views: high-level ontology-view concepts and fine-grained instance-view entities. They usually embed all nodes as vectors in one latent space. However, a single geometric representation fails to capture the structural differences between two views and lacks probabilistic semantics towards concepts' granularity. We propose Concept2Box, a novel approach that jointly embeds the two views of a KG using dual geometric representations. We model concepts with box embeddings, which learn the hierarchy structure and complex relations such as overlap and disjoint among them. Box volumes can be interpreted as concepts' granularity. Different from concepts, we model entities as vectors. To bridge the gap between concept box embeddings and entity vector embeddings, we propose a novel vector-to-box distance metric and learn both embeddings jointly. Experiments on both the public DBpedia KG and a newly-created industrial KG showed the effectiveness of Concept2Box.
A Survey on Graph Neural Network Acceleration: Algorithms, Systems, and Customized Hardware
Jun 24, 2023
Graph neural networks (GNNs) are emerging for machine learning research on graph-structured data. GNNs achieve state-of-the-art performance on many tasks, but they face scalability challenges when it comes to real-world applications that have numerous data and strict latency requirements. Many studies have been conducted on how to accelerate GNNs in an effort to address these challenges. These acceleration techniques touch on various aspects of the GNN pipeline, from smart training and inference algorithms to efficient systems and customized hardware. As the amount of research on GNN acceleration has grown rapidly, there lacks a systematic treatment to provide a unified view and address the complexity of relevant works. In this survey, we provide a taxonomy of GNN acceleration, review the existing approaches, and suggest future research directions. Our taxonomic treatment of GNN acceleration connects the existing works and sets the stage for further development in this area.
CF-GODE: Continuous-Time Causal Inference for Multi-Agent Dynamical Systems
Jun 20, 2023
Multi-agent dynamical systems refer to scenarios where multiple units interact with each other and evolve collectively over time. To make informed decisions in multi-agent dynamical systems, such as determining the optimal vaccine distribution plan, it is essential for decision-makers to estimate the continuous-time counterfactual outcomes. However, existing studies of causal inference over time rely on the assumption that units are mutually independent, which is not valid for multi-agent dynamical systems. In this paper, we aim to bridge this gap and study how to estimate counterfactual outcomes in multi-agent dynamical systems. Causal inference in a multi-agent dynamical system has unique challenges: 1) Confounders are time-varying and are present in both individual unit covariates and those of other units; 2) Units are affected by not only their own but also others' treatments; 3) The treatments are naturally dynamic, such as receiving vaccines and boosters in a seasonal manner. We model a multi-agent dynamical system as a graph and propose CounterFactual GraphODE (CF-GODE), a causal model that estimates continuous-time counterfactual outcomes in the presence of inter-dependencies between units. To facilitate continuous-time estimation, we propose Treatment-Induced GraphODE, a novel ordinary differential equation based on GNN, which incorporates dynamical treatments as additional inputs to predict potential outcomes over time. To remove confounding bias, we propose two domain adversarial learning based objectives that learn balanced continuous representation trajectories, which are not predictive of treatments and interference. We further provide theoretical justification to prove their effectiveness. Experiments on two semi-synthetic datasets confirm that CF-GODE outperforms baselines on counterfactual estimation. We also provide extensive analyses to understand how our model works.
* 13 pages, 8 figures