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    Instructions: State Open/Closed Kerry Votes Expected Turnout Expected Votes

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    aramanujan
    The document provides instructions for adjusting predictions of expected turnout and vote margins in various states to simulate different outcomes of the 2008 Democratic primary election between Clinton and Obama. It includes a table to adjust values in orange cells for "Expected Turnout" and "Clinton Margin of Victory" and see the resulting changes in the "Net Clinton Votes" and "Obama Margin" nationwide. The instructions emphasize to not modify fixed cells that contain formulas.

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    Instructions: State Open/Closed Kerry Votes Expected Turnout Expected Votes

    Uploaded by

    aramanujan
    17 views12 pages
    The document provides instructions for adjusting predictions of expected turnout and vote margins in various states to simulate different outcomes of the 2008 Democratic primary election between Clinton and Obama. It includes a table to adjust values in orange cells for "Expected Turnout" and "Clinton Margin of Victory" and see the resulting changes in the "Net Clinton Votes" and "Obama Margin" nationwide. The instructions emphasize to not modify fixed cells that contain formulas.

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    Original Title

    Choose Your Own

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    The document provides instructions for adjusting predictions of expected turnout and vote margins in various states to simulate different outcomes of the 2008 Democratic primary election between Clinton and Obama. It includes a table to adjust values in orange cells for "Expected Turnout" and "Clinton Margin of Victory" and see the resulting changes in the "Net Clinton Votes" and "Obama Margin" nationwide. The instructions emphasize to not modify fixed cells that contain formulas.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xls, pdf, or txt
    17 views12 pages

    Instructions: State Open/Closed Kerry Votes Expected Turnout Expected Votes

    Uploaded by

    aramanujan
    The document provides instructions for adjusting predictions of expected turnout and vote margins in various states to simulate different outcomes of the 2008 Democratic primary election between Clinton and Obama. It includes a table to adjust values in orange cells for "Expected Turnout" and "Clinton Margin of Victory" and see the resulting changes in the "Net Clinton Votes" and "Obama Margin" nationwide. The instructions emphasize to not modify fixed cells that contain formulas.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xls, pdf, or txt
    of 12

    INSTRUCTIONS

    (1) Cells in orange can be adjusted as you see fit.


    (2) Change "Expected Turnout" and "Clinton Margin of Victory" per your prediction.
    (3) Alter Puerto Rico's "Expected Votes" directly instead of its "Expected Turnout."
    (4) Expected turnouts in original cells based upon previous contests. See "Useful Data."
    (5) See "Useful Data" below as guide for "Clinton Margin of Victory"
    (6) Cells in yellow show effect of your adjustments
    (7) Look under "Nationwide Results" to see Obama's lead after your adjustments.
    (8) Do not modify yellow or red cells, or else the formulae will be disrupted.
    (9) Initial values designed ONLY to illustrate effect of a reasonably pro-Clinton race.

    STATEWIDE RESULTS
    State Open/Closed Kerry Votes Expected Turnout Expected Votes
    Pennsylvania Closed 2,938,095 63.00% 1,851,000
    Indiana Open 969,011 82.00% 794,589
    North Carolina Open 1,525,849 82.00% 1,251,196
    West Virginia Open 326,541 82.00% 267,764
    Kentucky Closed 712,733 63.00% 449,022
    Oregon Closed 943,163 63.00% 594,193
    Puerto Rico Open N/A N/A 1,000,000
    Montana Open 173,710 82.00% 142,442
    South Dakota Closed 149,244 63.00% 94,024

    USEFUL DATA*
    State Open/Closed** Total Primary Voters2004 Kerry Votes Turnout***
    New Hampshire Open 287,557 340,511 84.37%

    South Carolina Open 532,151 661,699 80.42%

    Alabama Open 536,626 693,933 77.33%


    Arizona Closed 455,635 893,524 44.59%
    Arkansas Open 314,234 469,953 66.60%
    California Open 5,066,993 6,745,485 69.67%
    Connecticut Closed 417,096 857,488 41.23%
    Delaware Closed 96,374 200,152 48.15%
    Georgia Open 1,060,851 1,366,149 77.65%
    Illinois Open 2,038,614 2,891,550 69.73%
    Massachusetts Open 1,246,628 1,803,800 69.11%
    Missouri Open 825,050 1,259,171 65.32%
    New Jersey Open 1,119,768 1,911,430 58.58%
    New Mexico Closed 149,379 370,942 40.27%
    New York Closed 1,891,143 4,314,280 40.43%
    Oklahoma Closed 417,096 503,966 82.76%
    Tennessee Open 618,711 1,036,477 59.69%
    Utah Open 131,403 241,199 51.54%

    Louisiana Closed 384,346 820,299 46.85%

    DC Closed 123,994 202,970 61.09%


    Maryland Closed 862,539 1,334,493 64.63%
    Virginia Open 986,203 1,454,742 67.81%

    Wisconsin Open 1,113,753 1,489,504 74.61%

    Ohio Open 2,233,156 2,741,165 80.07%


    Rhode Island Open 186,439 259,760 70.94%
    Texas Open 2,861,924 2,832,704 99.50%
    Vermont Open 147,655 184,067 82.42%

    Mississippi Open 434,071 457,766 89.89%


    CHOOSE YOUR OWN PRIMARY RESULTS
    By Jay Cost

    seful Data."

    Clinton Margin of Victory Net Clinton Votes


    12% 222,120
    5% 39,729
    -8% -100,096
    15% 40,165
    15% 67,353
    -5% -29,710
    25% 250,000
    -10% -14,244
    -10% -9,402
    Total Net Clinton Votes 465,915

    Result****
    Clinton +2.64%

    Obama +28.93%

    Obama +14.39%
    Clinton +7.98%
    Clinton +43.8%
    Clinton +8.31%
    Obama +4.04%
    Obama +10.78%
    Obama +35.28%
    Obama +31.9%
    Clinton +15.46%
    Obama +1.42%
    Clinton +9.86%
    Clinton +1.14%
    Clinton +16.79%
    Clinton +23.58%
    Clinton +13.24%
    Obama +17.65%

    Obama +21.77%

    Obama +51.54%
    Obama +24.56
    Obama +28.19%

    Obama +17.32

    Clinton +10.29%
    Clinton +18.04%
    Clinton +3.48% * - 2008 Data from http://www.thegreenpapers.com. 2004 Data from the Almanac of American P
    Obama +26.39% ** - "Open" Is Defined as Either "Open" or "Modified." See http://www.thegreenpapers.com/De
    ***- Turnout defined as 2008 Primary Vote as Share of 2004 Kerry General Election Vote.
    Obama +24.45 **** - Results reflect victory of Clinton over Obama or Obama over Clinton among whole field.
    RY RESULTS

    NATIONWIDE RESULTS^
    Manner of Counting Vote
    Exclude FL, MI, Caucus Estimate.

    Exclude FL, MI. Include Caucus Estimate. No WA restimate.


    Exclude FL, MI. Include Caucus Estimate. WA reestimate.

    Exclude MI and Caucus Estimate. Include FL.

    Exclude MI. Include FL and Caucus Estimate. No WA reestimate.


    Exclude MI. Include FL and Caucus Estimate. WA reestimate.

    Include MI and FL. Exclude Caucus Estimate. No MI Votes To Obama.


    Include MI and FL. Exclude Caucus Estimate. Unaffiliated MI Votes To Obama.
    Include MI and FL. Exclude Caucus Estimate. MI Reestimate.

    Include MI, FL, Caucus Estimate. No WA reestimate. No MI Votes To Obama.


    Include MI, FL, Caucus Estimate. No WA reestimate. Unaffiliated MI Votes To Obama.
    Include MI, FL, Caucus Estimate. No WA reestimate. MI Reestimate.

    Include MI, FL, Caucus Estimate. WA reestimate. No MI Votes To Obama.


    Include MI, FL, Caucus Estimate. WA reestimate. Unaffiliated MI Votes To Obama.
    Include MI, FL, Caucus Estimate. WA reestimate. MI Reestimate.
    ://www.thegreenpapers.com. 2004 Data from the Almanac of American Politics
    as Either "Open" or "Modified." See http://www.thegreenpapers.com/Definitions.html
    2008 Primary Vote as Share of 2004 Kerry General Election Vote.
    ctory of Clinton over Obama or Obama over Clinton among whole field. As the number of other candidates in the field increases, the si
    NATIONWIDE RESULTS^
    Total Obama and Clinton Votes Current Obama Margin New Obama Margin
    25,979,694 710,942 245,027 ^ - See corresponding article for definitio

    26,537,640 821,164 355,249


    26,963,038 770,528 304,613

    27,426,894 416,170 -49,745

    27,984,840 526,392 60,477


    28,410,238 475,754 9,839

    27,755,203 87,861 -378,054


    27,755,203 325,623 -140,292
    27,755,203 350,690 -115,225

    28,313,149 198,083 -267,832


    28,313,149 435,845 -30,070
    28,313,149 460,912 -5,003

    28,738,547 147,445 -318,470


    28,738,547 385,207 -80,708
    28,738,547 410,274 -55,641
    mber of other candidates in the field increases, the size of this number likely decreases. Edwards received non-negligible vote totals throu
    See corresponding article for definitions of vote counts
    ceived non-negligible vote totals through Super Tu esday. So, adjustments might be necessary to compare these states to post-Edwards
    hese states to post-Edwards states. For instance, among Clinton or Obama voters in Tennessee, Clinton won by 14.04%.

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