Emanuel Still Dominating Competition: Turnout Will Determine Runoff or Not

Contact: Tom Swiss
(773) 485-9477
February 15, 2015
Emanuel Still Dominating Competition

Turnout will determine runoff or not
CHICAGO, IL - Ogden & Fry, a Chicago based polling company, is conducting weekly polls for the Mayor
of Chicago. Respondents are selected by random sampling to match Municipal Election turnout ratios
(see Methodology).
February 14, 2015 n= 736
Rahm Emanuel
Jesus Chuy Garcia
Willie Wilson
Robert Bob Fioretti
William Dock Walls
362
169
106
63
36
49.2%
23.0%
14.4%
8.6%
4.9%
Margin of Error +/- 3.69% at 95% Confidence Interval
ANALYSIS
Remarkably little has changed for the Mayoral candidates from week to week. Rahm Emanuel maintains
his better than 20% lead over Chuy Garcia. All the drama centers around whether Emanuel can get the
50%+1 and avoid a runoff. Turnout will make all the difference. This is going to be difficult to predict
because there will be high turnout in Wards with competitive Aldermanic races and little incentive for
voters in Wards without competitive or no competition Aldermanic races.
Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161
Page 1
PREVIOUS WEEKLY MAYORAL POLL RESULTS

WITH UNDECIDEDS
WITHOUT UNDECIDED OPTION
POLL 1 February 7, 2015

n= 969
POLL 2 February 8, 2015

n= 727
Rahm Emanuel
399
41.2%
Rahm Emanuel
373
51.3%
Jesus Chuy Garcia
182
18.8%
Jesus Chuy Garcia
185
25.4%
Willie Wilson
103
10.6%
Willie Wilson
94
12.9%
Robert Bob Fioretti
65
6.7%
Robert Bob Fioretti
54
7.4%
William Dock Walls
17
1.8%
William Dock Walls
21
2.9%
203
20.9%
Undecided
Margin of Error +/- 3.71%
Margin of Error +/- 3.21%
*Once early voting begins, undecided is removed as a poll option. The last two weekly Mayoral polls
will not have undecided as an option.
Page 2
February 7, 2015 n= 969
Rahm Emanuel
Jesus Chuy Garcia
Willie Wilson
Robert Bob Fioretti
William Dock Walls
Undecided
399
182
103
65
17
203
41.2%
18.8%
10.6%
6.7%
1.8%
20.9%
January 31, 2015 n= 884
Rahm Emanuel
Jesus Chuy Garcia
Willie Wilson
Robert Bob Fioretti
William Dock Walls
Undecided
369
147
86
59
15
208
41.7%
16.6%
9.7%
6.7%
1.7%
23.5%
January 24, 2015 n= 950
Rahm Emanuel
Jesus Chuy Garcia
Willie Wilson
Robert Bob Fioretti
William Dock Walls
Undecided
375
171
105
71
17
211
39.5%
18.0%
11.1%
7.5%
1.8%
22.2%
Page 3
January 17, 2015 n= 1,010
Rahm Emanuel
Jesus Chuy Garcia
Willie Wilson
Robert Bob Fioretti
William Dock Walls
384
166
107
68
15
38.0%
16.4%
10.6%
6.7%
1.5%
Undecided
270
26.7%
EMANUEL VS. GARCIA

January 24, 2015 n= 725
Rahm Emanuel
Jesus Chuy Garcia
398
327
54.9%
45.1%
METHODOLOGY
Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote
based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.
Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For a Municipal Election poll, 60% of
the sampled population voted in 3 of the last 3 elections, 30% voted in 2 of the last 3 elections, and 10%
voted in 1 of the last 3 elections. This 60/30/10 ratio reflects Municipal Election voting patterns
CROSSTABS January 17th Poll

Page 4
Respondents by Gender
Male
Female
468
542
46%
54%
Respondents by Age
Age 18 - 30
96
9.5%
Age 31 - 45
281
27.8%
Age 46 - 64
357
35.4%
Age 65 plus
275
27.3%
*Age could not be determined for 1 respondent
Respondents by Ward
Ward 1
Ward 2
Ward 3
Ward 4
Ward 5
Ward 6
Ward 7
Ward 8
Ward 9
Ward 10
Ward 11
Ward 12
Ward 13
Ward 14
Ward 15
Ward 16
Ward 17
Ward 18
Ward 19
Ward 20
Ward 21
20
15
33
29
30
31
20
23
34
8
19
8
13
19
8
16
21
30
45
23
29
Ward 26
Ward 27
Ward 28
Ward 29
Ward 30
Ward 31
Ward 32
Ward 33
Ward 34
Ward 35
Ward 36
Ward 37
Ward 38
Ward 39
Ward 40
Ward 41
Ward 42
Ward 43
Ward 44
Ward 45
Ward 46
10
22
31
20
7
6
22
15
36
15
11
16
17
19
16
22
21
14
18
17
17
Page 5
Ward 22
Ward 23
Ward 24
Ward 25
10
15
18
14
Ward 47
Ward 48
Ward 49
Ward 50
30
34
24
19
CROSSTABS January 24th Poll

Male
Female
444
506
47%
53%
Respondents by Age
Age 18 - 30
79
8.3%
Age 31 - 45
262
27.6%
Age 46 - 64
353
37.2%
Age 65 plus
255
26.9%
*Age could not be determined for 1 respondent
Respondents by Ward
Ward 1
Ward 2
Ward 3
Ward 4
Ward 5
Ward 6
Ward 7
Ward 8
Ward 9
Ward 10
13
20
39
30
29
29
22
41
27
7
Ward 26
Ward 27
Ward 28
Ward 29
Ward 30
Ward 31
Ward 32
Ward 33
Ward 34
Ward 35
9
19
30
21
11
15
20
11
25
9
Page 6
Ward 11
Ward 12
Ward 13
Ward 14
Ward 15
Ward 16
Ward 17
Ward 18
Ward 19
Ward 20
Ward 21
Ward 22
Ward 23
Ward 24
Ward 25
11
12
13
8
10
9
17
18
30
16
26
6
15
18
6
Ward 36
Ward 37
Ward 38
Ward 39
Ward 40
Ward 41
Ward 42
Ward 43
Ward 44
Ward 45
Ward 46
Ward 47
Ward 48
Ward 49
Ward 50
6
22
13
17
22
18
19
26
17
22
29
27
35
18
16
CROSSTABS January 31st Poll

Male
Female
423
461
47.9%
52.1%
Respondents by Age
Age 18 - 30
Age 31 - 45
Age 46 - 64
Age 65 plus
84
239
306
255
9.5%
27.0%
34.6%
28.8%
Respondents by Ward
Ward 1
Ward 2
Ward 3
17
15
28
Ward 26
Ward 27
Ward 28
11
15
23
Page 7
Ward 4
Ward 5
Ward 6
Ward 7
Ward 8
Ward 9
Ward 10
Ward 11
Ward 12
Ward 13
Ward 14
Ward 15
Ward 16
Ward 17
Ward 18
Ward 19
Ward 20
Ward 21
Ward 22
Ward 23
Ward 24
Ward 25
27
21
25
28
22
20
8
11
8
21
5
1
24
12
14
32
15
29
11
12
26
8
Ward 29
Ward 30
Ward 31
Ward 32
Ward 33
Ward 34
Ward 35
Ward 36
Ward 37
Ward 38
Ward 39
Ward 40
Ward 41
Ward 42
Ward 43
Ward 44
Ward 45
Ward 46
Ward 47
Ward 48
Ward 49
Ward 50
18
9
6
19
20
23
5
11
19
22
30
16
22
17
19
24
13
18
28
20
26
10
CROSSTABS February 7th Poll

Male
Female
451
518
46.5%
53.5%
Respondents by Age
Age 18 30
Age 31 - 45
Age 46 64
91
270
357
9.4%
27.9%
36.8%
Page 8
Age 65 plus
251
25.9%
Respondents by Ward
1 Count
2 Count
3 Count
4 Count
5 Count
6 Count
7 Count
8 Count
9 Count
10 Count
11 Count
12 Count
13 Count
14 Count
15 Count
16 Count
17 Count
18 Count
19 Count
20 Count
21 Count
22 Count
23 Count
24 Count
25 Count
19
20
28
31
29
26
24
27
20
9
10
10
8
9
6
25
17
17
36
15
28
8
10
16
18
26 Count
27 Count
28 Count
29 Count
30 Count
31 Count
32 Count
33 Count
34 Count
35 Count
36 Count
37 Count
38 Count
39 Count
40 Count
41 Count
42 Count
43 Count
44 Count
45 Count
46 Count
47 Count
48 Count
49 Count
50 Count
17
24
22
20
6
8
31
11
29
14
5
31
13
23
16
23
29
19
19
24
21
30
29
23
16
Page 9

Male
Female
315
412
43.3%
56.7%
Respondents by Age
Age 18 30
Age 31 - 45
Age 46 64
Age 65 plus
81
196
239
210
11.2%
27.0%
32.9%
28.9%
Respondents by Ward
1 Count
2 Count
3 Count
4 Count
5 Count
6 Count
7 Count
8 Count
9 Count
10 Count
11 Count
12 Count
13 Count
14 Count
15 Count
16 Count
17 Count
18 Count
13
7
19
26
25
22
16
20
16
5
15
3
18
7
7
13
18
19
26 Count
27 Count
28 Count
29 Count
30 Count
31 Count
32 Count
33 Count
34 Count
35 Count
36 Count
37 Count
38 Count
39 Count
40 Count
41 Count
42 Count
43 Count
8
22
16
18
8
4
16
9
24
11
6
15
13
15
12
18
12
17
10
Page
19 Count
20 Count
21 Count
22 Count
23 Count
24 Count
25 Count
18
11
22
1
12
14
20
44 Count
45 Count
46 Count
47 Count
48 Count
49 Count
50 Count
20
11
12
20
23
12
18

Male
Female
330
406
44.8%
55.2%
Respondents by Age
Age 18 30
Age 31 - 45
Age 46 64
Age 65 plus
77
210
277
172
10.5%
28.5%
37.6%
23.4%
Respondents by Ward
1 Count
2 Count
3 Count
4 Count
5 Count
6 Count
7 Count
8 Count
9 Count
10 Count
9
12
19
23
27
18
17
21
18
7
26 Count
27 Count
28 Count
29 Count
30 Count
31 Count
32 Count
33 Count
34 Count
35 Count
4
14
13
22
16
8
15
17
17
5
11
Page
11 Count
12 Count
13 Count
14 Count
15 Count
16 Count
17 Count
18 Count
19 Count
20 Count
21 Count
22 Count
23 Count
24 Count
25 Count
15
6
21
8
1
11
13
19
25
15
21
6
12
13
12
36 Count
37 Count
38 Count
39 Count
40 Count
41 Count
42 Count
43 Count
44 Count
45 Count
46 Count
47 Count
48 Count
49 Count
50 Count
8
19
9
26
14
12
13
18
10
14
14
28
23
20
8
12
Page

Emanuel Still Dominating Competition: Turnout Will Determine Runoff or Not

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Emanuel Still Dominating Competition: Turnout Will Determine Runoff or Not

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Emanuel Still Dominating Competition: Turnout Will Determine Runoff or Not

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Contact: Tom Swiss

Emanuel Still Dominating Competition

February 14, 2015 n= 736

Margin of Error +/- 3.69% at 95% Confidence Interval

PREVIOUS WEEKLY MAYORAL POLL RESULTS

WITHOUT UNDECIDED OPTION

POLL 1 February 7, 2015

POLL 2 February 8, 2015

Jesus Chuy Garcia

Jesus Chuy Garcia

Robert Bob Fioretti

Robert Bob Fioretti

William Dock Walls

William Dock Walls

Margin of Error +/- 3.71%

Margin of Error +/- 3.21%

February 7, 2015 n= 969

Margin of Error +/- 3.21% at 95% Confidence Interval

January 31, 2015 n= 884

Margin of Error +/- 3.36% at 95% Confidence Interval

January 24, 2015 n= 950

Margin of Error +/- 3.24% at 95% Confidence Interval

January 17, 2015 n= 1,010

Margin of Error +/- 3.15% at 95% Confidence Interval

EMANUEL VS. GARCIA

Margin of Error +/- 3.71% at 95% Confidence Interval

CROSSTABS January 17th Poll

CROSSTABS January 24th Poll

CROSSTABS January 31st Poll

CROSSTABS February 7th Poll

CROSSTABS February 8th Poll

CROSSTABS February 14th Poll

You might also like