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    Tom Swiss Weekly Mayoral Poll

    Uploaded by

    The Daily Line
    The poll summary provides the results of two mayoral election polls conducted by Ogden & Fry. It shows incumbent Rahm Emanuel maintaining a commanding lead over challenger Jesus "Chuy" Garcia. Specifically, the January 24 poll has Emanuel leading Garcia 39.5% to 18%, a 10-point margin. If forced into an April runoff, the poll found Emanuel would defeat Garcia 54.9% to 45.1%. However, Emanuel's support is weaker among African American voters, who have been upset by school closings in their communities.

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    Tom Swiss Weekly Mayoral Poll

    Uploaded by

    The Daily Line
    564 views5 pages
    The poll summary provides the results of two mayoral election polls conducted by Ogden & Fry. It shows incumbent Rahm Emanuel maintaining a commanding lead over challenger Jesus "Chuy" Garcia. Specifically, the January 24 poll has Emanuel leading Garcia 39.5% to 18%, a 10-point margin. If forced into an April runoff, the poll found Emanuel would defeat Garcia 54.9% to 45.1%. However, Emanuel's support is weaker among African American voters, who have been upset by school closings in their communities.

    Original Description:

    Automated call conducted 1/24/15. Attempts to target likely mayoral campaign voters.

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    The poll summary provides the results of two mayoral election polls conducted by Ogden & Fry. It shows incumbent Rahm Emanuel maintaining a commanding lead over challenger Jesus "Chuy" Garcia. Specifically, the January 24 poll has Emanuel leading Garcia 39.5% to 18%, a 10-point margin. If forced into an April runoff, the poll found Emanuel would defeat Garcia 54.9% to 45.1%. However, Emanuel's support is weaker among African American voters, who have been upset by school closings in their communities.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    564 views5 pages

    Tom Swiss Weekly Mayoral Poll

    Uploaded by

    The Daily Line
    The poll summary provides the results of two mayoral election polls conducted by Ogden & Fry. It shows incumbent Rahm Emanuel maintaining a commanding lead over challenger Jesus "Chuy" Garcia. Specifically, the January 24 poll has Emanuel leading Garcia 39.5% to 18%, a 10-point margin. If forced into an April runoff, the poll found Emanuel would defeat Garcia 54.9% to 45.1%. However, Emanuel's support is weaker among African American voters, who have been upset by school closings in their communities.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 5
    At a glance
    Powered by AI
    The polls show Rahm Emanuel with a significant lead over other candidates but may not get over 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff election. His support among African American voters has declined significantly from 2011.

    The leading candidates according to the polls are Rahm Emanuel with 39.5-38% support, Jesus "Chuy" Garcia with 16.4-18% support, and Willie Wilson with 10.6-11.1% support.

    Support for Rahm Emanuel among African American voters in predominantly black wards is only 34% according to the January 17th poll, which is a significant decline from his 59% support among black voters in 2011. Nearly 1 in 3 black voters remain undecided.

    Contact:

    Tom Swiss
    (773) 485-9477
    January 26, 2015


    Emanuel Maintains Commanding Lead


    Mayor holds 10-point lead over Garcia head-to-head
    CHICAGO, IL - Ogden & Fry, an independent polling company, is conducting weekly polls for the Mayor
    of Chicago. Respondents are selected by random sampling to match Municipal Election turnout ratios
    (see Methodology).
    January 24, 2015 n= 950

    Rahm Emanuel

    375

    39.5%

    Jesus Chuy Garcia

    171

    18.0%

    Willie Wilson

    105

    11.1%

    Robert Bob Fioretti

    71

    7.5%

    William Dock Walls

    17

    1.8%

    211

    22.2%

    Undecided

    Margin of Error +/- 3.24% at 95% Confidence Interval


    January 17, 2015 n= 1,010

    Rahm Emanuel

    384

    38.0%

    Jesus Chuy Garcia

    166

    16.4%

    Willie Wilson

    107

    10.6%

    Robert Bob Fioretti

    68

    6.7%

    William Dock Walls

    15

    1.5%

    270

    26.7%

    Undecided

    Margin of Error +/- 3.15% at 95% Confidence Interval


    Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 1



    ANALYSIS
    There is little question Rahm Emanuel will lead the February 24, 2015 Municipal Election. The only
    question is whether he can avoid an April 7, 2015 run-off against Jesus Chuy Garcia. Emanuel will need
    to get 50% of the undecided voters to avoid a run-off. If Emanuel is forced into an April 7th run-off, he
    has a commanding 10-point lead over Garcia.
    January 24, 2015 n= 725

    Rahm Emanuel

    398

    54.9%

    Jesus Chuy Garcia

    327

    45.1%

    Margin of Error +/- 3.71% at 95% Confidence Interval


    The African American community has been upset most of the school closings occurred in their
    community. In a breakdown of the 211 respondents in the 8 Wards (6-9, 17, 21, 24, and 34) with an
    African American population of 90% or more, only a third favor Emanuel. This 34% stands in marked
    contrast to his 59% black support in 2011. Nearly 1 in 3 black voters remain undecided. If millionaire
    Wilson or CTU-supported Garcia start gaining more traction, Emanuel will face a run-off with Garcia.
    African American Wards (Jan. 17th poll)
    Emanuel
    Wilson
    Garcia
    Fioretti
    Walls
    Undecided

    72
    48
    19
    7
    2
    63

    34.1%
    22.7%
    9.0%
    3.3%
    1.0%
    29.9%


    Since most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, there is still much room for further
    development in this race. The final order wont change but it remains to be seen if Emanuels under-
    funded opponents can drag him under the 50% mark.


    Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 2


    METHODOLOGY
    Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote
    based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.
    Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For a Municipal Election poll, 60% of
    the sampled population voted in 3 of the last 3 elections, 30% voted in 2 of the last 3 elections, and 10%
    voted in 1 of the last 3 elections. This 60/30/10 ratio reflects Municipal Election voting patterns


    CROSSTABS January 17th Poll
    Respondents by Gender
    Male
    Female

    468
    542

    46%
    54%



    Respondents by Age
    Age 18 - 30
    96
    9.5%
    Age 31 - 45
    281
    27.8%
    Age 46 - 64
    357
    35.4%
    Age 65 plus
    275
    27.3%
    *Age could not be determined for 1 respondent

    Respondents by Ward
    Ward 1
    Ward 2
    Ward 3
    Ward 4
    Ward 5
    Ward 6
    Ward 7

    Ward 26
    10
    Ward 27
    22
    Ward 28
    31
    Ward 29
    20
    Ward 30
    7
    Ward 31
    6
    Ward 32
    22

    Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 3

    20
    15
    33
    29
    30
    31
    20


    Ward 8
    Ward 9
    Ward 10
    Ward 11
    Ward 12
    Ward 13
    Ward 14
    Ward 15
    Ward 16
    Ward 17
    Ward 18
    Ward 19
    Ward 20
    Ward 21
    Ward 22
    Ward 23
    Ward 24
    Ward 25

    23
    34
    8
    19
    8
    13
    19
    8
    16
    21
    30
    45
    23
    29
    10
    15
    18
    14

    Ward 33
    Ward 34
    Ward 35
    Ward 36
    Ward 37
    Ward 38
    Ward 39
    Ward 40
    Ward 41
    Ward 42
    Ward 43
    Ward 44
    Ward 45
    Ward 46
    Ward 47
    Ward 48
    Ward 49
    Ward 50

    15
    36
    15
    11
    16
    17
    19
    16
    22
    21
    14
    18
    17
    17
    30
    34
    24
    19


    CROSSTABS January 24th Poll
    Respondents by Gender
    Male
    Female

    444
    506

    47%
    53%



    Respondents by Age
    Age 18 - 30
    79
    8.3%
    Age 31 - 45
    262
    27.6%
    Age 46 - 64
    353
    37.2%
    Age 65 plus
    255
    26.9%
    *Age could not be determined for 1 respondent

    Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 4



    Respondents by Ward
    Ward 1
    Ward 2
    Ward 3
    Ward 4
    Ward 5
    Ward 6
    Ward 7
    Ward 8
    Ward 9
    Ward 10
    Ward 11
    Ward 12
    Ward 13
    Ward 14
    Ward 15
    Ward 16
    Ward 17
    Ward 18
    Ward 19
    Ward 20
    Ward 21
    Ward 22
    Ward 23
    Ward 24
    Ward 25

    13
    20
    39
    30
    29
    29
    22
    41
    27
    7
    11
    12
    13
    8
    10
    9
    17
    18
    30
    16
    26
    6
    15
    18
    6

    Ward 26
    Ward 27
    Ward 28
    Ward 29
    Ward 30
    Ward 31
    Ward 32
    Ward 33
    Ward 34
    Ward 35
    Ward 36
    Ward 37
    Ward 38
    Ward 39
    Ward 40
    Ward 41
    Ward 42
    Ward 43
    Ward 44
    Ward 45
    Ward 46
    Ward 47
    Ward 48
    Ward 49
    Ward 50

    9
    19
    30
    21
    11
    15
    20
    11
    25
    9
    6
    22
    13
    17
    22
    18
    19
    26
    17
    22
    29
    27
    35
    18
    16

    Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 5

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