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    Aldertrack Ward 7 Poll

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    The Daily Line
    A poll of 491 likely voters in Chicago's 7th Ward found Natashia Holmes with a slight lead of 15% in the race for alderman. Half of respondents remained undecided. The race included eight candidates total. Spending will likely influence who advances to a runoff election, as name recognition is important in such a crowded field and voter decisions are often made late.

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    Aldertrack Ward 7 Poll

    Uploaded by

    The Daily Line
    400 views2 pages
    A poll of 491 likely voters in Chicago's 7th Ward found Natashia Holmes with a slight lead of 15% in the race for alderman. Half of respondents remained undecided. The race included eight candidates total. Spending will likely influence who advances to a runoff election, as name recognition is important in such a crowded field and voter decisions are often made late.

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    Conducted 2/3/15 by Ogden & Fry

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    A poll of 491 likely voters in Chicago's 7th Ward found Natashia Holmes with a slight lead of 15% in the race for alderman. Half of respondents remained undecided. The race included eight candidates total. Spending will likely influence who advances to a runoff election, as name recognition is important in such a crowded field and voter decisions are often made late.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    400 views2 pages

    Aldertrack Ward 7 Poll

    Uploaded by

    The Daily Line
    A poll of 491 likely voters in Chicago's 7th Ward found Natashia Holmes with a slight lead of 15% in the race for alderman. Half of respondents remained undecided. The race included eight candidates total. Spending will likely influence who advances to a runoff election, as name recognition is important in such a crowded field and voter decisions are often made late.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 2

    Contact:

    Tom Swiss
    (773) 485-9477
    February 3, 2015


    7th Ward: Holmes at 15% Has Slight Lead


    Half of 7th Ward Still Undecided

    CHICAGO, IL - Ogden & Fry, conducted a 1-Question Poll for Aldertrack on Tuesday, February 3, 2015 for
    7th Ward Alderman with 491 respondents.
    Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters.
    Natashia Holmes

    76

    15.5%

    Keiana Barrett

    49

    10.0%

    Gregory Mitchell

    37

    7.5%

    LaShonda Shonnie Curry

    27

    7.1%

    Joseph Moseley II

    20

    4.1%

    Flora Flo Digby

    16

    3.3%

    Bernie Riley

    1.8%

    Margie Reid

    1.0%

    244

    49.7%

    Undecided

    Margin of Error +/- 4.51% at 95% Confidence Interval


    ANALYSIS
    Natashia Holmes has a slight lead with only 15% of the vote in a crowded field of eight candidates. Often
    voters in African-American communities break late, so it is not surprising to see half the respondents
    undecided. Building brand identity is very expensive and in a crowded field, money will play a large
    factor deciding who makes the runoff.

    Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 1


    Since most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, there is still room for further
    development in this race.

    METHODOLOGY
    Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote
    based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.
    Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For Chicago Aldermanic elections,
    likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections.


    CROSSTABS
    Respondents by Gender
    Male
    Female

    197
    294

    40.1%
    59.9%



    Respondents by Age
    Age 18 - 30
    Age 31 - 45
    Age 46 - 64
    Age 65 plus

    38
    128
    186
    138

    12.4%
    21.0%
    35.5%
    31.1%

    *Age could not be determined for 1 respondent

    Respondents by Zipcode
    60617 Count
    60619 Count
    60649 Count

    230
    7
    253

    Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 2

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