Nlenvirte 3082
Nlenvirte 3082
Nlenvirte 3082
Differentiated Instruction
English language learners distinguish between total fertility
rate and replacement fertility.
Inquiry A simple demonstration helps students visualize
the demographic transitions
affect on population growth.
Real World Students discuss
social factors that affect a
nations population growth
and resource use.
8.2 RESOURCES
In Your Neighborhood Activity,
Using Census Data Paper and Pencil
Activity, Interpreting Age Structure
Graph It, Age Pyramids and Population Growth Lesson 8.2 Worksheets
Lesson 8.2 Assessment Chapter 8
Overview Presentation
Fertility Rate
Fertility rate helps demographers predict the rates at which
populations will grow in the future.
At the most basic level, the factors that affect human population growth
are the same as those that affect the populations of other organisms.
Births add individuals to the global population and deaths remove them.
Immigration and emigration affect the population size of particular
regions. To get a clear picture of a populations potential for growth,
demographers look at many characteristics of a particular population.
GUIDING QUESTION
FOCUS Have students form small
groups. Ask each group to develop a
prediction of how the human population growth rate might change in
the next 100 years. Have each group
share its prediction and two statements supporting its prediction
with the class. Use students predictions to launch a class discussion on
information demographers use to
predict population growth rates.
234 Lesson 2
(a)
(b)
1950
1970
1990
2007
5.8
5.8
2.2
1.6
Rate of natural
population increase
(% per year)
1.9
2.6
1.4
0.5
37
0.55
27
0.83
50
1.14
140
1.32
Data from China Population Information and Research Center; and Population
Reference Bureau. 2007. 2007 World population data sheet.
ANSWERS
Figure 8 No, the growth rate is decreasing, but not the population size.
What Do You Think? Answers will
vary, but should reflect an understanding of the consequences of
below-replacement fertility rates,
such as a reduced work force.
What Do
you think?
Replacement Fertility The total fertility rate for a nation that would
keep its population size stable is called replacement fertility. This rate differs from nation to nation depending on its death rate. In many nations,
the replacement fertility is about 2.1. If a nations total fertility rate climbs
above 2.1, then the population will most likely increase over time. If it
falls below 2.1, then the population will most likely decrease over time. As
of 2009, seventy-two nations had fallen below the total fertility rate of 2.1.
In nations that have a higher than average death rate, replacement fertility
is greater than 2.1.
What Do
you think?
In the United States, Canada, and
many European nations, the total
fertility rate has fallen below the
replacement rate. What economic
and social consequences do you
think might result from belowreplacement fertility rates?
Human Population 235
ANSWERS
Reading
Checkpoint
Male
Reproductive age
Pre-reproductive age
Post-reproductive age
Female
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Age
Age
100
90
80
Population (millions)
Data from U.N. Population Division
236 Lesson 2
Male
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2
Reproductive age
Female
Population (millions)
White
Male
White
Female
Hispanic or
Latino Male
Hispanic or
Latino Female
Under 5
5,747,742
5,446,604
1,900,431
1,817,543
59
6,321,695
5,982,208
1,851,885
1,771,795
1014
6,623,228
6,259,312
1,617,185
1,546,227
1519
6,530,937
6,228,997
1,688,556
1,483,090
2024
5,865,075
5,729,667
1,875,139
1,534,288
2529
6,038,628
5,952,235
1,826,146
1,559,188
3034
6,723,177
6,642,233
1,668,064
1,456,837
3539
7,835,996
7,829,977
1,474,462
1,350,696
4044
8,058,013
8,077,349
1,178,548
1,125,604
4549
7,410,884
7,497,327
886,695
888,473
5054
6,669,501
6,809,448
664,236
696,699
5559
5,151,858
5,393,811
456,165
503,868
6064
4,079,327
4,402,685
347,409
402,998
6569
3,578,792
4,072,035
268,184
331,169
7074
3,267,502
4,060,120
205,691
271,575
7579
2,603,467
3,703,906
135,463
191,263
8084
1,597,046
2,687,860
67,919
111,619
85 and over
1,054,863
2,619,269
49,617
101,091
95,157,731
99,395,043
18,161,795
17,144,023
Total
Sex Ratios Age structure diagrams also show the sex ratio for each age
group. Sex ratio is the number of males compared to females in a population. At birth, the naturally occurring sex ratio of humans has slightly more
males. For every 100 females born, about 106 males are born (sex ratio of
1.06 to 1). This phenomenon may be an evolutionary adaptation because
males are slightly more likely to die during any given year of life. Therefore,
having more male children in a population tends to ensure that the sex
ratio is about equal when they reach reproductive age.
Human activities can skew the sex ratio one way or another. Some
regions may have more females than males because many males emigrate
to find work. Other areas may have more males than females. For example, in a culture that values sons more than daughters, daughters may not
be given the same quality of care.
Human Population 237
Demographic Transition
Pre-industrial
stage
Transitional
stage
Growth rate
Birthrate and
death rate
are high
Birthrate
Population
increase
Post-industrial
stage
Birthrate declines
due to increased
opportunities for
women and access
to birth control
Birthrate and
death rate
are low
at
hr
ate
De
Death rate
declines due
to increased
food production
and improved
medical care
Industrial
stage
Time
Adapted from Kent, M.M. and K.A. Crews. 1990. World population: Fundamentals of growth. Population
Reference Bureau.
238 Lesson 2
BIG QUESTION
How does the human population
affect the environment?
Application After students have
read the information about the four
stages of the demographic transition, refer them back to the Big
Question. Discuss each of the four
stages of the demographic transition in turn. For each, have students
describe how population trends associated with that stage would affect
the environment.
ANSWERS
(a)
(b)
Social Factors
Social factors, such as wealth and education, affect a nations
population growth and its resource use.
Predicting population growth is not just a numbers game. People live in
complex societies that influence population growth and their impact on
the environment. Factors such as poverty, wealth, and education levels
affect population size.
Distribution of World Population
Developing nations
Developed nations
8
6
4
2
0
1950
1975
2000
Year
2025
2050
National Policies
240 Lesson 2
Figure 13 Uneven
Consumption Rates The
(a)
(b)
Empowering Women
important to consider the amount of resources a particular population uses and the amount of waste it produces. Just as population size is
distributed unevenly around the globe, so are wealth and rate of resource
consumption. As explained in Figure 13, people in nations such as the
United States typically use far more resources compared to people in
developing nations. In this sense, the addition of one American has as
much environmental impact as the addition of five Chinese or thirteen
Pakistanis. As more and more nations become industrialized, whether or
not they go through the demographic transition, their consumption rates
will also rise.
ANSWERS
Lesson 2 Assessment
1. Less than; replacement fertility is
2.1. Declining populations likely
have a TFR that is less than 2.1.
2. Age structure shows the number
of people who are at or near reproductive age.
3. Yes; it is likely in the transitional
stage of the demographic transition in which death rates drop but
birthrates remain high.
4. Poorer societies tend to have
higher population growth rates
than wealthier ones.
5. Increase; the total fertility rate is
likely above the replacement level
and immigrants are joining the
population. A balanced age structure shows that there are some
people who will be at reproductive
age currently or in the near future.
2
1. Infer Assuming there is no emigration, would you
expect the total fertility rate of a declining population to be more or less than 2.1? . Explain.
2. Explain How does age structure help us predict
population growth?
3. Apply Concepts A population that is industrialized is experiencing a drop in death rates. However,
the birthrate remains high. Could it be undergoing
the demographic transition? Explain.