SEPTEMBER 2003

Online
Geo file 454

Barbara Melbourne

Population Policies
At present there are two major concerns • reducing infant mortality rates, as benefits etc. For example, in
about population growth in the world: large families are often regarded as Thailand, registered family planners
an insurance against child deaths can rent cattle to plough their land at
• large-scale population growth in
• improving the economic base of the half price, buy seeds at lower prices
LEDCs
country so that there are fewer rural etc.
• declining population numbers in the
people who have large families to • using disincentives such as loss of
MEDCs
work on family farms social benefits or increased taxes if a
• improving government care and couple has more than the number of
Both national governments and non-
financial provision for the elderly, so children recommended by the
governmental organisations (NGOs), e.g.
that couples do not have a large government.
the United Nations, have developed a
family to care for them in their old
range of policies to deal with these Another population issue that is
age
issues. affecting many LEDCs, and Central
• increasing the age at which women
marry Africa in particular, is the increasing
Population growth in LEDCs • improving the role and status of number of people who have AIDS or
women within a country’s economy who are HIV positive. The development
In 2002, the total population of the world
• improving education facilities for of this disease has favoured the use of
was 6.2 billion. This figure is growing by
girls and women. condoms, to avoid catching the disease,
approximately 79 millions each year;
which is a valuable form of
99% of this growth occurs in the
contraception. However, in many
LEDCs! Two-thirds of LEDCs have national countries the increased expenditure on
population growth policies, but their AIDS awareness and prevention has
How can population growth in effectiveness varies considerably (see decreased the amount of available capital
LEDCs be reduced? Figure 1). In recent years, in both Asia to spend on family planning
The simple answer to this question is to and Latin America, fertility rates have programmes.
reduce the fertility rate (FR) (average fallen and contraceptive use has
number of children that a women has in increased. It is Central Africa that is still
a major concern, with an average fertility
Case study of Kenya
her lifetime). An FR of 2.1 is needed for
a country’s population size to remain rate of 6.1 and a low contraceptive use of Kenya was the first African country to
stable. In 2002, the average FR for the 17%. This region has 622 million people develop policies for population control.
world was 2.7, the lowest-ever value, (2002) and the high FR causes the In the last 20 years the FR has fallen
although this was higher in LEDCs, population to double every 25 years! from 8.0% to 4.4%, and contraceptive use
(3.0) than MEDCs (1.6). A further has increased from 7% to 39%.
reduction in FR can be achieved by: There are two main approaches to the
introduction of population control These improvements have been
• increasing the availability of family
policies: achieved by:
planning services and contraception
• informing people about the • using incentives for reducing family • increasing the availability of
importance of family planning and size, such as cash benefits, lower contraception and family planning
contraception taxes, social housing or education services, even in remote rural areas

Figure 1: Contraceptive use worldwide

90
Percentage contraceptive use

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Major world regions

Key
1 = Northern Africa 6 = Caribbean Less than 20%
2 = Central Africa 7 = Central and South America 20 – 49%
3 = Southern Africa 8 = Australia and New Zealand
4 = Asia excluding China 9 = North America 50 – 69%
5 = China 10 = Northern and Western Europe 70% & over
11 = Southern and Eastern Europe No Data

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September 2003 no.454 Population Policies

Figure 2: Factfiles for the case studies in this unit Case study of China
Feature World MEDCS LEDCS China India Kenya Japan Sweden UK China is the world’s largest country,
Total 6215 1197 5018 1281 1050 31 127 8.9 60.2 with a population of 1.2 billion in 2000,
Population about 20% of the world total! Family
Birth rate 21 11 24 13 26 34 9 10 11 planning is a basic state policy of China.
Fertility rate 2.8 1.6 3.1 1.8 3.2 4.4 1.3 1.6 1.6 Article 25 of China’s Constitution states
Death rate 9 10 8 6 9 14 8 11 10 that:
Growth rate 1.3 0.1 1.6 0.7 1.7 2.0 0.2 0 0.1 ‘The state promotes family planning in order
Infant mortality 54 7 60 31 68 74 3.2 3.4 5.6 to make the population growth compatible
with the plan for socio-economic
Contraceptive 61 68 60 84 48 39 56 na 72 development.’
use
Life expectancy 67 76 65 71 63 48 81 80 78 Article 43 states that:
% of people 1.2 0.4 1.5 0.1 0.8 15.0 na 0.1 0.1
‘Each married couple is obliged to practise
aged 15 to 49
family planning.’
with HIV/AIDS
NB: data given is for 2002.
With such a vast population China has a
considerable responsibility to ensure
Figure 3: India’s age structure, 1991—2016 (projected) that the future growth of its population
is controlled (see Figure 4).
Year 0 to 14 years (%) 15 to 59 (%) Over 60 years (%)

1991 37.8 55.6 6.6 Declining populations in

2001 34.3 58.7 7.0 MEDCs
2011 28.5 63.4 8.1
Many MEDCs also have population
2016 27.7 63.3 9.0
concerns, however these are linked to
negative growth, or a population
• increasing education and the requirement of the national implosion. Most MEDCs are in the final
information services on family economy’. The latest National stage of the demographic transition and
planning and contraception, e.g. a Population Policy in 2000 set out the death rates are sometimes higher than
national campaign on TV, radio following aims: birth rates. The fertility rates for many
soap-opera programmes and radio MEDCs are now much lower than the
broadcasts in urban markets dealing • to achieve net replacement levels of
population renewal value of 2.1 (see
with these issues population by 2010 by reducing FR
Figure 2). The main reasons for this
• increasing training programmes for to 2.0 and have a stable population
declining population size are:
health workers by 2045. Reducing the population
• trying to improve maternal health size before the middle of the century • social changes, as couples marry later
and infant mortality rates will be difficult as the percentage of and the average age at which a
• social developments to improve the the population in the child-bearing woman has her first child has
education and status of girls and age group will only start to fall after increased from 23 to 27 in most
women. 2011 (Figure 3) MEDCs
• to reduce infant mortality (IM) from • increasingly ‘equal’ roles in society
Countries such as Japan, the UK and the 50 to 30 per thousand by 2010. for men and women so that women
USA as well as NGOs such as the World • to improve child health by hold most jobs in the workplace
Bank and UN have helped financially. vaccination programmes against • most women find it difficult to cope
The National Family Planning preventable diseases with a demanding job and a family of
Association receives 5 million dollars • to increase the awareness and more than one or two children
from the government each year, which is availability of family planning and • fewer women want to give up work,
just one dollar for every six people in the contraception. Contraceptive use or can afford to do so, to care for a
country! AIDS affects 13% of the needs to be increased, especially in young family
population aged 15 to 49 and has caused rural areas where 74% of the • children are expensive to rear and a
an increase in the overall death rate from population lives small family allows extra money for
9 to 13 per thousand, a rise of 25% in • to target adolescents before other luxuries.
child mortality rates, and a fall in life marriageable age
expectancy from 65 to 55. The future • to promote the delay of marriageable
economic development of Kenya, age to at least 18 How can population growth be
needed to finance the social and health • to educate the population to believe increased in MEDCs?
improvements to support population that a typical Indian family is
control, policies has been seriously The simple answer here is to increase
smaller. The Indian government has family size, and many MEDCs have
affected by AIDS/HIV. introduced two incentives here, introduced a variety of incentives to
retirement benefits for smaller encourage this, including:
Case study of India families and the availability of
maternity leave for only the first two • extended family leave on the birth of
In 1952, India was the first LEDC to children in a family. a child
launch a national programme to • financial benefits for the second,
introduce family planning, to ‘stabilise third and subsequent children, such
the population at a level consistent with as tax benefits and cash support
Geofile Online © Nelson Thornes 2003
 September 2003 no.454 Population Policies

Figure 4: China’s changing population policies

YEARS MAIN EVENTS Natural

Increase
per thousand
1949 People’s Republic of China under Chairman Mao was declared
Little agricultural or industrial development
Life expectancy was 32 16.0
1950s People were encouraged to have large families
The ‘Great Leap Forward’ as China concentrated on industrial development 12.3
1960s Unsuccessful attempts to control population growth.
Increase of 55 million in three years! 9.5
Early 1970s State family planning programmes were introduced: later marriages, fewer children; wider spacing
Average family size was three children 7.6
1979 The ‘One Child is Good’ policy was started
Couples with only one child received benefits such as free education, priority housing, pensions, family benefits etc.
Couples with more than one child lost benefits/ were fined etc.
Men could only marry at 22 and women at 20
Couples had to have permission to marry and have a child 6.2
1980s Problems emerged with the one child policy:
in rural areas, people wanted larger families to help on the farms
a generation of spoiled only children was emerging
too few young people to look after elderly parents
female infanticide; forced abortions on second pregnancy 6.8
1990s Easing of severe restrictive policies.
Rural couples allowed two children if over a 3-year period.
Reduction of application of targets 6.5
2002 New Population Law with more emphasis on informed choice and fewer restrictions and penalties.
Review of necessity of policy and social and demographic effects.
Aim of Government State Family Planning Commission is to continue to control population growth in the future. 6.9

• subsidies for lower and middle- Sweden’s death rate and birth rate in such a situation has been to encourage
income families who wish to have became very similar in value and the FR early retirement. However, that increases
larger families but cannot afford to was falling. As a result of government government spending on pensions,
do so policies, the FR increased from 1.6 to 2.1 which has to come from increasing taxes
• migration – this sounds an ideal (replacement value) by the early 1990s. on the workers!
solution in principle – move people However, since the mid-1990s, when the
who are living in countries of rapid world economic situation started to Case study of Japan
growth to countries where the worsen, the high levels of government
population is declining. However, support for larger families have been It is forecast that by 2007 Japan’s
this is usually politically reduced. Fertility rates have fallen again, population numbers will start to
unacceptable, as even the present and by 1997 the birth rate was lower decrease due to a low fertility rate of 1.3
small number of migrants is causing than the death rate, causing population (2002), the expense of having more than
problems, and migration on a large decline for the first time in Sweden’s one or two children, and more career
scale would be needed. For recent history. This decline has since women in the workplace. Various
example, for Italy to maintain its continued (see Figure 5). solutions have been tried:
2000 population size, it would have • a government policy was introduced
to accept 350,000 migrants each Swedish government solutions to try to in 1992 to allow workers up to one
year for the foreseeable future! reverse the declining population trend year’s unpaid leave to care for their
over the past decade have included: children. This was amended in 1995
Case study of Europe • parental leave on 80% salary for up to so that parents also received 25% of
The total population of Europe is 12 months after the birth of a child, their salary during that time
expected to decrease by almost 10% by for either parent • the ‘Angel Plan’ was started in 1994,
2050. Italy’s total population is forecast • up to 120 days’ leave to care for sick which provides financial support for
to fall by 28% over the same period. children, on 80% salary child rearing and increases the
The situation is worse in the eastern • adequate provision of heavily money spent on childcare provision
Communist countries. Here the FR is subsidised day care • the child allowance scheme has been
1.3 compared to 1.6 in the West, due to • high tax rates of between 30 and modified so that parents are given a
the collapse of communism and 50%, to finance these schemes. one-off payment of 5,000 yen for the
reduced child support benefits. first and second child and 10,000 yen
Sweden’s current situation is typical of for third and subsequent ones
that of many MEDCs. There are fewer • company schemes such as that of the
Case study of Sweden jobs in the current economic climate, Bandai Toy Company (makers of the
The Swedish government could foresee and so less income per couple to finance ‘Tamagotchi pet’), have been started,
problems with its future population a larger family or maybe any family at where employees are given 6,000 yen
growth in the late 1970s and 1980s, as all. In the past one government solution for every third and subsequent child

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September 2003 no.454 Population Policies

Figure 5: Sweden’s birth rate and death Figure 6: Population pyramids for Japan, 1998 and 2025
rate, 1950 to 2050
90
Sweden 1950 to 2050 2025
18 1998
80
16

14
Births/deaths per thousand

70
12

10 60

8
50
6 Men Women
Key
4 Birth rate
40
Death rate
2

0 30
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050

20
born to a couple.
• Daihatsu offers its workers 1,000 yen
and free car rental for three years on 10
the birth of a fourth child
• in some countryside areas, villagers
have invited women from the 1000 500 0 0 500 1000
Philippines to marry their men. population thousands

Conclusion
Figure 7: Changing age structure in Japan, 1950 to 2025
There are few countries in the world
today which do not have problems linked
to population growth. There does not
seem to be any overall solution to the
many problems, it is just the
responsibility of individuals and countries
to attempt to minimise their effects.

Useful Web addresses: Key

China: www.cpirc.org.cn 1950 1970 0–15 years

Asian countries’ policies: 16–64

www.unescap.org/pop/database/law_index. over 65
htm
NGO Work: www.policyproject.com
USAID (Kenya)
www.usaid.gov/country/afr/ke/
Wide range of information:
www.popcouncil.org
1990 2025

F o c u s Q u e s t i o n s
1.Explain how the development of AIDS has affected the •improving infant mortality rates.
population growth of LEDCs such as Kenya.
3. Article 25 of the China’s Constitution states that population
2. The lowering of population growth in LEDCs involves growth must be ‘compatible with the plan for socio-economic
many issues. Explain how and why the following actions are development’ and India wants to stabilise its population ‘at a
important: level consistent with the requirement of the national
economy’. Explain the meaning of these two aims and say
•developing vaccination programmes against preventable
why population control is not always as straightforward as it
childhood illnesses
seems to be.
•encouraging people to marry at a later age and then to have a
family which is ‘wider spaced’
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