2 Australia: Peter Mccray
2 Australia: Peter Mccray
2 Australia: Peter Mccray
Australia
Peter McCray
I. Introduction
54
Com parison of GDP, Foreign Turnover, Equity M ark et Turnover, and Fixed Interest Turnover in Various Countries
FIGUR E 1
Dom estic Bonds Outstanding
$ billion
120
100
Australian Government
80
60 State Government
40
Nongovernment
20
0
90/1 91/2 92/3 93/4 94/5 95/6 96/7 97/8 98/9
FIGUR E 2
Bond M ark et Turnover (daily average)
$ billion
5
Australian Government
4
2 State
Government
Nongovernment
0
90/1 91/2 92/3 93/4 94/5 95/6 96/7 97/8 98/9
FIGUR E 3
Daily Average Turnover in Physical and Futures M ark ets
$ billion
7
Future Market
6
Physical Market
5
0
84/5 85/6 86/7 87/8 88/9 89/90 90/1 91/2 92/3 93/4 94/5 95/6 96/7 97/8 98/9
FIGUR E 4
JP M organ L iquidity R atio (as at 31 Decem ber 1999)
Percent
100
80
60
40
20
0
Australia
Belgium
Canada
Denmark
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
Netherlands
Spain
Sweden
UK
US
A . Operational Issues
at all that any sort of risk premium attaches to bond yields in Australia
as a result of this practice.
This is a good illustration of the important point that sovereign
debt management, and more particularly the development of sovereign
bond markets, is not merely a matter of mimicking the strategies and
conventions applied in the largest and most liquid bond markets.
Relevant considerations that need to be carefully assessed in for-
mulating development strategies are the standing of the market in global
terms, the quality of the existing market infrastructure, the characteris-
tics of the investor base, the scal impact of debt-service costs, and
market perceptions regarding the sustainability of the debt burden.
Many market development issues are essentially practical ones, and
it is simply not sensible to believe that a one size ts all blueprint
can successfully be applied to all sovereign debt managers, in all cir-
cumstances. There will always be a need for sound judgment in determining
precise operational strategies and conventions and, where necessary, the
balance to be struck between competing considerations to best meet the
requirements of individual markets.
What is certain, however, is that an ethical, responsible approach
to sovereign debt management, and a culture of transparency and com-
munication with markets, is an essential prerequisite to market development.
For many years up until the early 1980s, the authorities in Austra-
lia used a tap mechanism as the primary vehicle for issuing debt securities.
They determined the price (interest rate) at which the securities would
be o¬ered to the market, and the market took up as much of the stock as
it wished at that price.
The tap system operated reasonably successfully through the 1950s
and 1960s when nancial markets were regulated. There was little compe-
tition from private sector borrowers and good support from captive investors.
The system proved increasingly unsatisfactory through the 1970s, how-
ever, with uncertainty surrounding fund-raising the major drawback.
By the early 1980s, it was clear that an alternative mechanism was
required. In principle at least, there were two broad choices open to the
authorities.
The rst was an outright move to issuing bonds by auction, under
which the market clearing price for the volume of bonds made available
for issue would be determined by the bids of market participants.
The second option was the use of a dealer panel mechanism,
whereby appointed members of a panel would be obliged to take up
Australia 65
FIGUR E 5
Bond Auctions: R ange of A ccepted Bids
basis points
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 97 105 113 121 129 137 145 153 161
Tender Number
1982 1987 1992 1995 1997 1999
the yields on relevant securities articially low means that the holding
costs of taking long positions can be high. Captive investor arrange-
ments therefore discourage the taking of positions in the market and act
to inhibit liquidity and secondary market development.
In common with the experience of all major OECD jurisdictions,
there are no longer any captive investor arrangements applying to the
holdings of government bonds in the Australian market. Experience makes
it fairly clear that there are likely to be substantial net costs in employ-
ing captive investor arrangements as part of a government bond market
development strategy.
FIGUR E 6
Daily Average Turnover versus Bonds Outstanding
$ billion $ billion
100 7
Bonds Outstanding (LHS)
6
80 Turnover (RHS)
5
60 4
40 3
2
20
1
0 0
84/5 85/6 86/7 87/8 88/9 89/90 90/1 91/2 92/3 93/4 94/5 95/6 96/7 97/8 98/9
of the issuer and issuance programs, the form of primary issuance ar-
rangements adopted, and the prevalence of captive investor arrangements.
Beyond these generic factors, there are a number of additional spe-
cic considerations discussed below that may also be of relevance to
building secondary market capacity in government bonds.
Certainly, it is most important to issue securities with the broad
characteristics that the market demands. Close contact between investors
and market makers is required, to monitor the popularity of the various
stocks on issue and, if necessary, consider buying back lines of stock
that are no longer in demand and replacing them with more popular
securities.
The liquidity of individual lines is a critical consideration for in-
vestors. In Australia, a large-scale bond consolidation program in the
late 1980s saw the number of individual bond maturities reduced from
almost 100 comparatively illiquid lines, to the point where today almost
all bond outstandings are concentrated in 15 highly liquid benchmarks.
Outright liquidity is not the only consideration, however. Careful
selection of the maturity of lines to be issued along the sovereign curve
and, generally speaking, the maintenance of bond coupons reasonably
close to prevailing market yields, are other important considerations for
many investors.
70 Government Bond Market Development in Asia
E. Infrastructure Issues
V. Conclusion