Tayl CH 08

Chapter Eight: Project Management
PROBLEM SUMMARY PROBLEM SOLUTIONS

1. Network construction and analysis
4. Network analysis
5. Network, earliest and latest event times, slack
11. Network analysis
15. Probability analysis
16. Network analysis, probability analysis
19. Probability analysis
21. Network construction, probability analysis
26. Project crashing, linear programming model
formulation
formulation
28. General linear programming model formulation
29. General linear programming model formulation
formulation
31. Project crashing, computer
32. Project crashing, computer
114
Activity Time ES EF LS LF Slack
1–2 7 0 7 2 9 2
1–3 10 0 10 0 10 0
2–4 6 7 13 9 15 2
3–4 5 10 15 10 15 0
3–5 4 10 14 14 18 4
4–5 3 15 18 15 18 0
5–6 2 18 20 18 20 0
Critical path = 1 – 3 – 4 – 5 – 6
The critical path activities have no slack.
115
1–2 8 0 8 1 9 1
1–3 10 0 10 0 10 0
1–4 9 0 9 6 15 6
2–5 6 8 14 9 15 1
2–6 4 8 12 16 20 8
3–5 5 10 15 10 15 0
4–5 0 9 9 15 15 6
4–7 7 9 16 20 27 11
5–7 12 15 27 15 27 0
5–8 15 15 30 16 31 1
6–9 18 12 30 20 38 8
7–8 4 27 31 27 31 0
8–9 7 31 38 31 38 0
Critical Path = 1 – 3 – 5 – 7 – 8 – 9
Project duration = 38
116
8.
1–2 10 0 10 0 10 0 Activity Time ES EF LS LF Slack

1–3 7 0 7 5 12 5 1–2 2 0 2 0 2 0
2–4 4 10 14 14 18 4 2–3 5 2 7 2 7 0
2–6 15 10 25 10 25 0 2–4 2 2 4 6 8 4
3–4 6 7 13 12 18 5 2–5 4 2 6 4 8 2
3–5 12 7 19 13 25 6 3–4 0 7 7 8 8 1
4–5 4 14 18 21 25 7 3–5 1 7 8 7 8 0
4–6 7 14 21 18 25 4 3–6 3 7 10 8 11 1
5–6 0 19 19 25 25 6 4–7 4 7 11 8 12 1
6–7 9 25 34 25 34 0 5–6 3 8 11 8 11 0
Critical Path = 1 – 2 – 6 – 7 6–8 3 11 14 11 14 0
Project completion time = 34 6–9 1 11 12 13 14 2
7–9 2 11 13 12 14 1
8–9 0 14 14 14 14 0
9 – 10 1 14 15 14 15 0
Time until General is ready to battle = 15 days
Critical path = 1 – 2 – 3 – 5 – 6 – 8 – 9 – 10
117
1–2 8 0 8 4 12 4
1–3 12 0 12 0 12 0
1–4 3 0 3 9 12 9
2–3 0 8 8 12 12 4
3–6 9 12 21 12 21 0
4–3 0 3 3 12 12 9
4–5 2 3 5 19 21 16
4–6 3 3 6 18 21 15
5–6 0 5 5 21 21 16
6–7 12 21 33 40 52 19
6–8 7 21 28 46 53 25
6–9 30 21 51 23 53 2
6 – 10 21 21 42 21 42 0
7 – 12 20 33 53 52 72 19
8–9 0 28 28 53 53 25
9 – 11 5 51 56 53 58 2
10 – 11 16 42 58 42 58 0
11 – 13 5 58 63 70 75 12
11 – 14 17 58 75 58 75 0
12 – 15 6 53 59 72 78 19
13 – 14 0 63 63 75 75 12
14 – 15 3 75 78 75 78 0
Critical path = 1 – 3 – 6 – 10 – 11 – 14 – 15
Project completion time = 78 weeks
118
(a) 1–2 2 0 2 0 2 0
(b) 2–3 6 2 8 2 8 0
(c) 2–5 4 2 6 4 8 2
(d) 2–4 2 2 4 6 8 4
(e) 3–6 4 8 12 9 13 1
(f) 5–6 5 8 13 8 13 0
dummy 3–5 0 8 8 8 8 0
(g) 3–7 3 8 11 12 15 4
(h) 6–7 2 13 15 13 15 0
dummy 4–5 0 4 4 8 8 4
Critical path = a – b – dummy – f – h or 1 – 2 – 3 – 5 – 6 – 7

Project completion time = 15
11.
Activity a m b t ES EF LS LF Slack σ
1–2 6 10 15 10.16 0 10.16 0 10.16 0 1.50
1–3 2 7 16 7.66 0 7.66 18.00 25.66 18.00 2.33
1–4 4 8 11 7.83 0 7.83 14.33 22.16 14.33 1.16
2–3 3 10 15 9.66 10.16 19.83 16.00 25.66 5.83 2.00
2–5 7 9 20 10.50 10.16 20.66 10.16 20.66 0 2.16
2–6 4 12 15 11.16 10.16 21.33 20.50 31.66 10.33 1.83
3–6 3 6 9 6.00 19.83 25.83 25.66 31.66 5.83 1.00
4–6 5 9 16 9.50 7.83 17.33 22.16 31.66 14.33 1.83
5–7 3 20 35 19.66 20.66 40.33 20.66 40.33 0 5.33
4–7 4 12 16 11.33 7.83 19.16 29.00 40.33 21.16 2.00
6–7 2 9 14 8.66 25.83 34.50 31.66 40.33 5.83 2.00
Expected project completion time = 40.33

σ = 5.95
Critical path = 1 – 2 – 5 – 7
119
12.
(a) 1–2 5 8 17 9 0 9 0 9 0 2
(b) 1–3 3 12 15 11 0 11 7 18 7 2
(c) 2–3 4 7 10 7 9 16 11 18 2 1
(d) 2–4 5 8 23 10 9 19 9 19 0 3
(e) 3–4 1 1 1 1 16 17 18 19 2 0
(f) 3–6 1 4 13 5 16 21 26 31 10 2
(g) 4–5 3 6 9 6 19 25 19 25 0 1
(h) 4–7 1 2.5 7 3 19 22 21 24 2 1
dummy 5–6 0 0 0 0 25 25 31 31 6 0
dummy 5–8 0 0 0 0 25 25 25 25 0 0
(i) 7–8 1 1 1 1 22 23 24 25 2 0
(j) 6–9 2 2 2 2 25 27 31 33 6 0
(k) 8–9 5 8 11 8 25 33 25 33 0 1
Critical path = a – d – g – dummy – k or 1– 2 – 4 – 5 – 8 – 9

Expected project completion time = 33 weeks
σ = 3.87
P(x ≤ 40)
Time (days)
µ = 33 x = 40
x–µ 40 – 33
Z= = = 1.81
σ 3.87
P(x ≤ 40) = .9649
120
13. (a, b, c, d)
1–2 4 8 12 8.00 0 8.00 3.66 11.66 3.66 1.33
1–3 6 10 15 10.16 0 10.16 0 10.16 0 1.50
1–4 2 10 14 9.33 0 9.33 8.33 17.66 8.33 2.00
2–5 3 6 9 6.00 8.00 14.00 11.66 17.66 3.66 1.00
2–6 1 4 13 5.00 8.00 13.00 22.33 27.33 14.33 2.00
3–5 3 6 18 7.50 10.16 17.66 10.16 17.66 0 2.50
4–5 0 0 0 0 9.33 9.33 17.66 17.66 8.33 0
4–7 2 8 12 7.66 9.33 17.00 22.33 30.00 13.00 1.66
5–8 9 15 22 15.16 17.66 32.83 21.66 36.83 4.00 2.16
5–7 5 12 21 12.33 17.66 30.00 17.66 30.00 0 2.66
7–8 5 6 12 6.83 30.00 36.83 30.00 36.83 0 1.16
6–9 7 20 25 18.66 13.00 46.00 27.33 46.00 14.33 3.00
8–9 3 0 20 9.16 36.83 46.00 36.83 46.00 0 2.83
e) Critical path = 1 – 3 – 5 – 7 – 8 – 9
f) Expected project completion time = 46 months
σ = 5 months
14. (a, b, c, d)
1–2 1 2 6 2.50 0 2.50 0 2.50 0 .833
2–4 1 3 5 3.00 2.50 5.50 7.50 10.50 5.00 .66
2–3 3 5 10 5.50 2.50 8.00 2.50 8.00 0 1.16
2–5 3 6 14 6.83 2.50 9.33 2.66 9.50 .16 1.83
3–4 0 0 0 0 8.00 8.00 10.50 10.50 2.50 0
3–5 1 1.5 2 1.50 8.00 9.50 8.00 9.50 0 .16
3–6 2 3 7 3.50 8.00 11.50 9.00 12.50 1.00 .83
4–7 2 4 9 4.50 8.00 12.50 10.50 15.00 2.50 1.16
5–6 1 3 5 3.00 9.50 12.50 9.50 12.50 0 .66
7–9 1 2 3 2.00 12.50 14.50 15.00 17.00 2.50 .33
6–9 1 1 5 1.66 12.50 14.16 15.33 17.00 2.83 .66
6–8 2 4 9 4.50 12.50 17.00 12.50 17.00 0 1.16
8–9 0 0 0 0 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 0 0
9 – 10 1 1 1 1.00 17.00 18.00 17.00 18.00 0 0
e) Critical path = 1 – 2 – 3 – 5 – 6 – 8 – 9 – 10
f) Expected project completion time = 18 days
σ = 1.97
121
15.
≈p=?
Time (months)
µ = 46 50
σ=5
x–µ
Z=
σ
50 – 46
=
5
= 4/5 = .80
From normal table, p = .2881

.5000 – .2881 = .2119 probability that the
project will exceed 50 months
16.
b
a d e f
1 2 3 4 6
h j
8 9
c
i
g
5 7
Activity Standard
Time ES EF LS LF Slack Deviation
Project 23 1.7
a 3 0 3 0 3 0 0.667
b 3.167 0 3.167 7.667 10.833 7.667 0.5
c 4.167 0 4.167 6.667 10.833 6.667 0.833
d 2.833 3 5.833 3 5.833 0 0.5
e 5 5.833 10.833 5.8333 10.833 0 1
f 1.833 10.833 12.667 15.167 17 4.333 0.167
g 5.833 10.833 16.667 10.833 16.667 0 0.833
h 3.833 12.667 16.5 17 20.833 4.333 0.5
i 4.167 16.667 20.833 16.667 20.833 0 0.5
j 2.167 20.833 23 20.833 23 0 0.5
Probability the project will be completed in 21 days?
x−µ
Z=
σ
Z = 21 − 23 = −1.18
1.7
P(x ≤ 21) = .119
122
17.
Activity Standard
Time ES EF LS ES Slack Deviation
Project 160.833 8.54
a 24.833 0 24.833 45.5 70.333 45.5 2.167
b 22.833 0 22.833 47.5 70.333 47.5 2.5
c 40.167 0 40.167 0 40.167 0 5.167
d 30.833 40.167 71 40.167 71 0 4.167
e 21 24.833 45.833 70.333 91.3333 45.5 3
f 17.167 71 88.167 71 88.167 0 2.5
g 11.833 88.167 100 88.167 100 0 2.167
h 19.167 45.833 65 91.333 110.5 45.5 2.5
i 15.167 45.833 61 95.333 110.5 49.5 2.167
j 10.5 100 110.5 100 110.5 0 1.167
k 28 110.5 138.5 110.5 138.5 0 3.333
l 10.167 110.5 120.667 128.333 138.5 17.8333 1.5
m 7 138.5 145.5 148 155 9.5 1
n 14.333 138.5 152.833 146.5 160.833 8 1.667
o 14.5 138.5 153 138.5 153 0 2.167
p 4.167 138.5 142.667 156.667 160.833 18.1667 0.5
q 5.833 145.5 151.333 155 160.833 9.5 0.5
r 7.833 153 160.833 153 160.833 0 0.833
2 8 13
h m
a q
n
1 4 6 10 12 16
b e i k o r
c l
j 14
p
3 5 7 9 11
d f g
15
Critical path : c − d − f − g − j − k − o − r
x − µ 180 − 160.83
Z= = = 2.24
σ 8.54
P( x ≤ 180 minutes) = .5000 + .4875 = .987
18. (a, b)
123
(a) 1–2 1 2 3 2.00 0 2.00 7.33 9.33 7.33 .33
(b) 1–3 2 5 8 5.00 0 5.00 0 5.00 0 1.00
(c) 1–4 1 3 5 3.00 0 3.00 8.66 11.66 8.66 .66
(d) 2–6 4 10 25 11.50 2.00 13.50 9.33 20.83 7.33 3.50
(e) 2–5 3 7 12 7.16 2.00 9.16 13.66 20.83 11.66 1.50
(f) 3–7 10 15 25 15.83 5.00 20.83 5.00 20.83 0 2.50
(g) 4–8 5 9 14 9.16 3.00 12.16 11.66 20.83 8.66 1.50
dummy 5 – 6 0 0 0 0 9.16 9.16 20.83 20.83 11.66 0
dummy 6 – 7 0 0 0 0 13.50 13.50 20.83 20.83 7.33 0
(h) 6–9 2 3 7 3.50 13.50 17.00 22.66 26.16 9.16 .83
dummy 7 – 8 0 0 0 0 20.83 20.83 20.83 20.83 0 0
(i) 7–9 1 4 6 3.83 20.83 24.66 22.33 26.16 1.50 .83
(j) 8–9 2 5 10 5.33 20.83 26.16 20.83 26.16 0 1.33
(k) 9 – 10 2 2 2 2 26.16 28.16 26.16 28.16 0 0
c) Critical path = b – f – dummy – j – k or 1 – 3 – 7 – 8 – 9 – 10
d) Expected project completion time = 28.17
σ = 3.00
e) 19)
p=?
p=?
Time (weeks) Time (days)
µ = 28.16 35 15 µ = 18
σ=3 σ = 1.97
x–µ x–µ
Z= Z=
σ σ
35 – 28.16 15 – 18
= =
3 1.97
6.84 = –1.52
=
3.00
= 2.28
preparations would be in time
company will be fined
124
20
1–2 1 3 5 3.00 0 3.00 7.50 10.50 7.50 .66
1–4 4 6 10 6.33 0 6.33 14.66 21.00 14.66 1.00
1–6 20 35 50 35.00 0 35.00 0 35.00 0 5.00
2–3 4 7 12 7.33 3.00 10.33 10.50 17.83 7.50 1.33
3–4 2 3 5 3.16 10.33 13.50 17.83 21.00 7.50 0.50
4–7 8 12 25 13.50 13.50 27.00 23.33 36.83 9.83 2.83
4–8 10 16 21 15.83 13.50 29.33 21.00 36.83 7.50 1.83
4–5 5 9 15 9.33 13.50 22.83 27.50 36.83 14.00 1.66
3–9 6 8 14 8.66 10.33 19.00 41.16 49.83 30.83 1.33
5–8 0 0 0 0 22.83 22.83 36.83 36.83 14.00 0
6–8 1 2 2 1.83 35.00 36.83 35.00 36.83 0 .16
6 – 13 5 8 12 8.16 35.00 43.16 49.16 57.83 14.16 1.16
7–8 0 0 0 0 27.00 27.00 36.83 36.83 9.83 0
8 – 10 5 10 15 10.00 36.83 46.83 44.00 54.00 7.16 1.66
8 – 11 4 7 10 7.00 36.83 43.83 36.83 43.83 0 1.00
9 – 13 5 7 12 7.50 19.00 26.50 49.83 57.33 30.83 1.16
10 – 12 0 0 0 0 46.83 46.83 54.00 54.00 7.16 0
11 – 12 5 9 20 10.16 43.83 54.00 43.83 54.00 0 2.50
12 – 13 1 3 7 3.33 54.00 57.33 54.00 57.33 0 1.00
Expected project completion time = 57.37 days
125
p=?
Time (days)
µ = 57.33 67
σ = 5.77
Expected completion time = 57.33
σ = 5.77
x–µ 67 – 57.33
Z= = = 1.68
σ 5.77
P(x ≤ 67) = .9535
21.
3 e
f 8
b m
g 6 k
a c
1 2 4 h 11
l
7 o
d
i
10
n
5
j 9
Critical path = a – b – d – j – n – o
Expected project completion time = 45 weeks
σ = 4.10
Since probability .90, Z = 1.29
x − 45
1.29 =
4.10
x - 45 = 5.29
x = 50.3
To be 90% certain of delivering the part on time,

RusTech should probably specify at least 50.3
weeks in the contract bid.
126
22.
l 11
8
h o
d i m q
1 2 3 6 9 12 13
a c
e j
n p
b 4 7
k
f
5 10
g
The activity schedule, critical path, expected

project time and variance:
Activity Activity
Activity Duration Variance ES LS EF LF Slack
a 15 336.111 0 0.000 31.666 31.667 Critical
b 8.833 1.361 31.667 81.1667 40.5 90 49.50
c 24.167 6.25 31.667 31.667 55.833 55.833 Critical
d 19.5 4.694 55.833 55.833 75.333 75.333 Critical
e 8.167 1.361 55.833 68.167 64 76.333 12.333
f 13.667 5.444 64 76.333 77.667 90 12.333
g 20.167 2.25 77.667 90 97.833 110.167 12.333
h 25 11.111 75.333 75.333 100.333 100.333 Critical
i 14.667 4 75.333 94.833 90 109.5 19.5
j 23 5.444 75.333 78.50 98.333 101.5 3.166
k 8.666 1.778 98.333 101.5 107 110.167 3.167
duminp 0 0 90 110.167 90 110.167 20.167
l 7.167 2.25 100.333 100.333 107.5 107.5 Critical
m 5 .444 90 109.5 95 114.5 19.5
n 4.333 1 107 110.167 111.333 114.5 3.167
o 7 1 107.5 107.5 114.5 114.5 Critical
p 5.5 .694 107 129.833 112.5 135.333 22.833
q 20.833 6.25 114.5 114.5 135.333 135.333 Critical
Expected Completion Time = 118.67 CPU seconds = 0
Total Variance = 391 Total Variance on Critical Path = 34.33
Critical path = a – c – d – h – l – o – q.
= 118.67
= 5.86
x − µ 120 −118.67
Z= = = .227
σ 5.86
P (x ≤ 120) = 0.59
127
23.
7
k
i
2 6 12
l
b o p
128
a e f n r
1 4 5 8 11 15
c g j
d q v
m
3 10 13 u
t
9 14
The critical path is: a – e – f – g – j – o – p
or
1 – 4 – 5 – 8 – 10 – 11 – 12 – 15
Project duration = 91.667

= 3.3082
From January 20 to April 29 is 101 days.

x −µ
P (x ≤ 101) =
Z
= 101− 91.667
3.3082
= 2.82
P (x ≤ 101) = .9976
Activity “n,” send out acceptance letters, has ES =
45.83 (March 6) and LF = 66.17 (March 20), so it
appears the club would meet the deadline of March 30
to send out acceptance letters.
Activity “q,” send out schedules, has ES = 66.16
(March 26) and LS = 83.50 (April 14) and LF = 91.67,
so it seems likely the club would meet the deadline of
April 15 for sending out game schedules.
24. The “suggested” network is as follows:

5
e
a
6
k
f
b i j l m n
1 2 7 8 9 10 11 12
c g
d 3
h
Critical path = d – h – i – j – l – m – n
Expected project completion time = 92.33
= 5.93
90 − 92.33
Z=
5.93
= .39
P(x ≤ 90) = .5000 – .1517
= .348
129
25. The “suggested” network is as follows:
u
t 16
q
9 13
p r
3 l
m n o s w
7 10 12 14 17 18
h j v
i
6
d e 15
a c 8
1 2 4
f
g
5
b
k
11
Critical path = a – h – l – m – n – o – s –w
Expected project duration () = 126.67 days
= 8.14 days
x−µ
Z =
σ
Z = 150 −126.67
8.14
Z = 2.87
P(x ≤ 150) = .5000 + .4979
= .9979
26. c)
130
d)
e)
f)
27. a)
b)
131
c)
d)
132
28.
29.
31.
32.
30.
8, 13, 19,
23.
b)
133
CASE SOLUTION: MOORE HOUSING
CONTRACTORS
a) Following is the CPM/PERT network for
building a house.
13
Grading
Drain Gutters o p
Tiles
d 12 15 Landscape
Foundation Framing Roof r
Windows n 20
Excavate Floors
Insulation Brickwork
19 w
1 2 3 4 6 9 11 x
a b c f i l Finish Lights
Basement Furnace Carpentry
Electrical s
e Floor j 18
Sewer Sheetrock Sub-floors Kitchen Paint
drains 5 7 8 v
10 14 17
g k m q t
u
Plumbing Bathrooms
h 16
134
Activity Activity
Activity Duration Variance ES LS EF LF Slack
a 4.167 .25 0 0.000 4.167 4.167 Critical
b 3.167 .25 4.167 4.167 7.333 7.333 Critical
c 3.833 .25 7.333 7.833 11.167 11.667 .500
d 2.167 .25 7.333 33.833 36 36 26.5
e 2 .111 7.333 7.333 9.333 9.333 Critical
Dumck 0 0 11.167 12.5 11.167 12.5 1.333
f 3.833 .25 11.167 11.167 15 15.5 .500
g 3.167 .25 9.333 9.333 12.5 12.5 Critical
h 4.167 .694 9.333 13.5 13.5 17.667 4.167
i 2.833 .25 15 21 17.833 23.833 6
j 2.167 .25 15 15.5 17.167 17.667 .500
k 5.167 .694 .694 12.5 17.667 17.667 Critical
l 6.5 .694 17.833 23.833 24.333 30.333 6
m 8.333 1 17.667 17.667 26 26 Critical
n 3.333 .444 24.333 30.333 27.667 33.667 6
o 2.333 .444 27.667 33.667 30 36 6
p 3.5 .694 30 36 33.5 39.5 6
q 4.167 .25 26 26 30.167 30.167 Critical
r 6.333 1 33.5 39.5 39.833 45.833 6
s 5.833 2.25 30.167 35 36 40.833 4.833
t 4.333 1 30.167 30.167 34.5 34.5 Critical
u 3.333 .444 30.167 31.167 33.5 34.5 1
Dumuv 0 0 33.5 34.5 33.5 34.5 1
v 6.333 1 34.5 34.5 40.833 40.833 Critical
w 5 1 40.833 40.833 45.833 45.833 Critical
Dumvw 0 0 40.833 40.833 40.833 40.833 Critical
x 2.833 .25 40.833 43 43.667 45.833 2.167
Critical Path for Moore Contractors Critical path: a ==> b ==> e ==> g ==> k ==>
Critical path: a ==> b ==> e ==> g ==> k ==> m ==> q ==> t ==> v ==> dumvw ==> w
m ==> q ==> t ==> v ==> dumvw = => w . Variance on this path = 5.805555
Variance on this path = 5.805555 The probability to finish in 45 is 36.47305%.
Done. Do you want to enter another scheduled
Notice that the expected completion time is completion time (Y/N)?
45.83 days which is very close to the realtor’s 36.7% is not a very high probability that the
due date for completion. QSB + will also contractor will complete a house within 45
perform the required probability analysis that days thus the Moores should probably inflate
the project will be completed, as follows. their bid.
Probability Analysis for Moore Contractors b) The activities on which the Moore’s should focus
The following probability calculation assumes their attention are those on the critical path, and
that activities are independent and so are all they should pull resources from those activities
paths. It also assumes that your network las a with slack (i.e., that are not on the critical
large enough number of activities to assume the path). However, some of the workers for the
normality. Therefore, when the activities are activities with the most slack such as
not independent or the number of activities is h(plumbing), i(window installation), l(brick
not large, the analysis may be biased. work), n(roofing), o(gutters), r(landscaping),
s(finish carpentry) may not be easily
Expected completion time (50% chance) = transferrable to work on critical path activities
45.83333 such as k(furnace and AC installation),
When do you expect to finish your project (0 to m(laying sheet rock and plastering), or q (sub-
end) ? 45 flooring).
135

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Chapter Eight: Project Management

PROBLEM SUMMARY PROBLEM SOLUTIONS

1–2 10 0 10 0 10 0 Activity Time ES EF LS LF Slack

Critical path = a – b – dummy – f – h or 1 – 2 – 3 – 5 – 6 – 7

Expected project completion time = 40.33

Critical path = a – d – g – dummy – k or 1– 2 – 4 – 5 – 8 – 9

P(x ≤ 40) = .9649

From normal table, p = .2881

Probability the project will be completed in 21 days?

Expected project completion time = 57.37 days

Expected completion time = 57.33

P(x ≤ 67) = .9535

To be 90% certain of delivering the part on time,

The activity schedule, critical path, expected

Project duration = 91.667

From January 20 to April 29 is 101 days.

24. The “suggested” network is as follows:

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