Osv Outlook Clarksons
Osv Outlook Clarksons
Osv Outlook Clarksons
May 2012
Contents
Macro Drivers to Offshore Support Vessel Demand Growth Offshore Support Vessel Industry - Overview
Fleet Development and Age Profile Orderbook and Deliveries Demolition (Scrapping) Asset Values OSV to Rig ratio
Regional Outlook
US GoM Latin America West Africa Middle East North Sea Asia Pacific
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
20
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
GDP Growth
Jan-13
3
Petrochina
Top 10 E&P spenders globally accounted for nearly 44% of the total E&P spending in 2011 All of them are expected to increase capex during 2012, by an average 29%
2012E
Petrobras
BP plc
Pemex
Eni Spa
ConocoPhillips
Petronas
2011
4
Source: Company filings, Clarkson Capital Markets
2011E
85%
15%
155
2014E
78%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
22%
Exploration trend shifting towards offshore oil fields and away from onshore fields: Offshore oil production contribution expected to grow ~37% by 2018, up from 35% in 2010, driven by contribution from deepwater (water depths >= 600 feet)
5
Source: Clarkson Capital Markets, Douglas Westwood, The World Deepwater Market Report 2011-2015 (May 2011)
Deepwater Capex to reach new highs - fuelling the demand for OSVs
Deepwater Capex by Component
US$ billion
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2006 SURF Pipelines 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Subsea Production Drilling Subsea Processing Floating Platf orm
Major proportion constituted by drilling activity
Golden Triangle
Majority of Capex is directed towards Deepwater Activities: Global Deepwater Capex is forecasted to reach $62 billion by 2015 from ~$22 billion in 2010, indicating a CAGR of ~23%, driven by advancement in seismic and drilling technologies Deepwater activity is mainly carried out in the Golden Triangle - West Africa, the US GoM and Brazil
6
Source: Douglas Westwood, The World Deepwater Market Report 2011-2015 (May 2011)
Country
Angola U.S. Brazil Nigeria Malaysia Norway Australia United Kingdom India China P.R. Others Total
Majority of the offshore activity is concentrated in the deepwater regions such as: Angola, U.S., Brazil, Nigeria, Malaysia and Norway
7
Source: Clarkson Research, The Offshore Oil Market (March 2012)
South America: Marlim Leste, Water depth 6,336 ft, Petrobas Barracuda, Water depth 3,630 ft, Petrobas Tupi, Water Depth 7,161 ft, Petrobas Guara Sul, Water Depth 7,065 ft, Petrobas Espadarte, Water Depth 2,805 ft, Petrobas Zaedyus, Water Depth 6,758 ft, Shell Albacora Leste, Water depth 200 ft, BPZ Energy
Africa: Makore, Water Depth 4,646 ft, Kosmos Energy Ten Cluster, Water Depth 3,788 ft, Tullow Narina, Water Depth 3,772 ft, African Petroleum Corp. Independence discovery , Water Depth N/A, Vanco Jupiter, Water Depth 21,335 ft, Anadarko Azul, Water Depth 3,046 ft, Maersk Oil
Offshore Oil Field:- Prospects, Discoveries (Drilled/Appraised), Under Development Fields (2011 April 2012)
8
Source: SubseaIQ (division of Rigzone), Hornbeck Offshore Investor Presentation (March 2012), Clarkson Capital Markets
fleet stood at 2,967 vessels compared to 2,830 at December-end 2011 Young Fleet: Approx. 70% of the existing fleet is under 20 years of age
969
1,755 1,864 1,927 1,952 1,409 1,609 1,239 939 1,014 1,118
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
AHTS
Source: MarineBase, Clarkson Capital Markets estimates
PSV
1,284
842
Global OSV orderbook comprised over 14% of the fleet at March-end 2012
105 107 61 2013E PSV
position with 12% share, or 48 newbuilds on order placed by Bourbon and Deep Sea Supply, followed by ABG shipyard with 5% share
2010 PSV
AHTS Demolition
PSV Demolition
Historically, the OSV sector has witnessed low scrapping, except for 2009 where the demolitions touched a record high with 34 vessels Over the forecast period, we expect the demolitions to increase, driven by: NOCs demand for younger vessels for long-term charters Competition from higher specifications vessels
12
Source: Clarksons, MarineBase, Clarkson Capital Markets estimates
Asset values strengthened for newbuilds and modern 5-year old units
Small AHTS (80t BP) Values
US$ million
$30 $20 $10 $0
Median
Newbuild(NB): $16.9 5yr-old: $15.4 10yr-old: $10.0 20yr-old: $5.3
Oct-09
Oct-09
Jul-11
May-10
May-10
Jan-08
Dec-10
Jan-08
Aug-08
Aug-08
NB
5-yr-old
10-yr-old
20-yr-old
NB
5-yr-old
10-yr-old
In 1Q 2010, the asset values strengthened for newbuilds and modern 5-year old units, while a contrary trend was observed for the 10 and 20 year old vessels The 10 and 20 year old vessel values have either trended downwards and stayed nearly flat, indicating reduced relative demand for older vessels
Dec-10
Mar-09
Mar-09
20-yr-old
Jul-11
13
Source: Clarksons
Oct-09
May-10
Jan-08
Aug-08
Oct-09
May-10
Jan-08
Aug-08
Dec-10
Mar-09
NB
5-yr-old
10-yr-old
20-yr-old
NB
5-yr-old
10-yr-old
Dec-10
Mar-09
Jul-11
20-yr-old
Jul-11
$45.8 $35.0 $23.0 $ 8.8
$91.3 $79.0
Oct-09
May-10
Jan-08
Aug-08
Dec-10
Jul-11
Oct-09
May-10
Jan-08
Aug-08
NB
Source: Clarksons
5-yr-old
NB
5-yr-old
10-yr-old
Dec-10
Mar-09
Mar-09
20-yr-old
14
Jul-11
4.0x
120 100 80
3.5x
60 40 20
3.0x
Mar 2012
2Q 2012
3Q 2012
4Q 2012
1Q 2013
2Q 2013
3Q 2013
4Q 2013
1Q2014
2Q2014
3Q2014
4Q2014
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Jan-10
Jan-11
Source: Bloomberg; Clarkson Capital Markets 1. CCM OSV index comprising of the four companies under our coverage Tidewater, Gulfmark Offshore Inc. Bourbon and Hornbeck Offshore
OSV to Rig ratio is expected to fall below 3.9 by 2014 from 4.1 as of March 2012, reflecting a tilt in market balance in favor of vessel owners
Jan-12
Apr-12
15
Jul-10
Jul-11
Regional Markets
16
Potential deepwater discoveries (Jack/St. Malo and the Big Foot) would continue to drive E&P
13% 66% 4% 6% 6% 5%
activity in the region Top 5 Operators: Shell, BP, Chevron, Apache and Anadarko
Shell Apache
BP plc Anadarko
Chevron Others
Leading Managers: The contracting side is more top heavy with Seacor Marine and Edison Chouest constituting maximum share
15% 11% 9% 6% 7%
Tidewater Others
Hornbeck Others
17
Utilization: Utilization for AHTS remained volatile while that of PSV has increased Dayrates: AHTS rates are highest in the region. The AHTS dayrates improved strongly in 3Q 2011, and maintained those levels thereafter. However, an opposite trend was
1Q 2007 1Q 2008 1Q 2009 1Q 2010 1Q 2011 1Q 2012
visible in the PSV rates which declined post 3Q 2011. For 2012, the OSV average dayrates would probably down
AHTS
PSV
1Q 2007
1Q 2008
1Q 2009
1Q 2010
1Q 2011
1Q 2007
1Q 2008
1Q 2009
1Q 2010
1Q 2011
1Q 2012
1Q 2012
18
Source: Clarksons
offshore basins like the Campos, Santos, Espirito de Santos, and prospects like the Atlantic Margins, to support the OSV demand
13% 2% 2%2%
17%
Petrobras
Pemex
BP plc
8% 5% 4% 3% 2%
Tidewater Bourbon
Hornbeck Others
19
Utilization: The utilization levels in the region have remained fairly consistent Dayrates: Tend to be higher in Brazil relative to Mexico, as it is more expensive to work in Brazil. Overall, the dayrates have shown a
20%
1Q 2007
1Q 2008
1Q 2009
1Q 2010
1Q 2011
1Q 2012
gradual improvement over the last few years and are expected to maintain the trend in 2012
AHTS
PSV
1Q 2007
1Q 2008
1Q 2009
1Q 2010
1Q 2011
1Q 2012
1Q 2007
1Q 2008
1Q 2009
1Q 2010
1Q 2011
1Q 2012
20
Source: Clarksons
likely to come from deepwater projects in Angola, Nigeria and Ghana Top 5 Operators: Total, Chevron, ExxonMobil, ENI and Perenco
ExxonMobil Others
Chevron Perenco
Leading Managers: The vessels market is top heavy, with Tidewater, Bourbon and Sanko Line forming ~16 - 36% share of the market
Utilization: The AHTS and PSV utilization in the region has declined gradually from high levels.
60%
1Q 2007
1Q 2008
1Q 2009
1Q 2010
1Q 2011
1Q 2012
AHTS
PSV
1Q 2009
1Q 2007
1Q 2008
1Q 2010
1Q 2011
1Q 2007
1Q 2008
1Q 2009
1Q 2010
1Q 2011
1Q 2012
1Q 2012
22
Source: Clarksons
In the region, the jack up rig count is a more important driver of OSV activity and demand
25% 58% 4% 5% 4% 4%
Top 5 Operators: Saudi Aramco, Iranian Offshore, Maersk, Qatar and Belayim Leading Managers: In the AHTS market,
Zamil and Tidewater hold the majority share while the PSV market is significantly
fragmented
Leading AHTS Players Leading PSV Players
2% 2% 1% 0.5% 0.5%
Utilization:
Both
the
PSV
and
AHTS
utilization levels have decreased gradually from high levels over the last few years Dayrates: Rates in this region are among the
40% 20%
AHTS
PSV
1Q 2007
1Q 2008
1Q 2009
1Q 2010
1Q 2011
1Q 2012
1Q 2007
1Q 2008
1Q 2009
1Q 2010
1Q 2011
1Q 2012
24
Source: Clarksons
Application
14% 65% 8% 5% 4% 4%
of
enhanced
oil
recovery
techniques is expected to drive future demand for OSVs in the region Top 5 Operators: Statoil, BP, Peterson, ConocoPhilips and Shell
Statoil ConocoPhillips BP plc Shell Peterson Others
Leading Managers: Gulf Offshore, a subsidiary of Gulfmark, Simon Offshore and Siem Offshore
7% 71% 6% 6% 5% 5% 78% 9% 4% 3% 3% 3%
Utilization: The AHTS and PSV utilization levels have remained volatile over the last few years
60%
by AHTS have relatively subdued, the PSV dayrates have displayed consistency
1Q 2007 1Q 2008 1Q 2009 1Q 2010 1Q 2011 1Q 2012
AHTS
PSV
1Q 2007
1Q 2008
1Q 2009
1Q 2010
1Q 2011
1Q 2007
1Q 2008
1Q 2009
1Q 2010
1Q 2011
1Q 2012
1Q 2012
26
Source: Clarksons
Offshore
14% 66% 9% 6% 3% 2%
production
in
the
region
has
witnessed rapid growth over the years, driven by a wide array of geographic developments Top 5 Operators: CNOOC, Petronas, Chevron, PTT and Vietsovpetro
CNOOC Chevron Vietsovpetro Petronas Carigali PTT Others
Leading
Managers:
China
Oilfield
and
Tidewater hold the majority share of the AHTS market ,while the PSV market is fragmented
7% 75% 6% 4% 4% 4% 94%
2% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Tidewater Bourbon
Utilization: The AHTS and PSV utilization have declined from moderately high levels and stayed broadly flat over 2011. However, over
the next 12 months rates are expected to remain stable or tread downwards
1Q 2007 1Q 2008 1Q 2009 1Q 2010 1Q 2011 1Q 2012
Dayrates: Post 1Q 2011, the average dayrates have declined, however, for 2012 they are projected to continue sideways to down
PSV Average earned Dayrates
$18,000 $16,000 $14,000
AHTS
PSV
$12,000 $10,000
1Q 2007
1Q 2008
1Q 2009
1Q 2010
1Q 2011
1Q 2007
1Q 2008
1Q 2009
1Q 2010
1Q 2011
1Q 2012
1Q 2012
28
Source: Clarksons
Market Outlook
29
1,098
78%
30
Source: MarineBase, Clarkson Capital Markets estimates
703
73%
market
is
expected
to
50%
31
Source: MarineBase, Clarkson Capital Markets estimates
THANK YOU
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