ISSN: 1554-9089

Office of the
Chief Economist

WASDE - 533

World Agricultural Supply

and Demand Estimates
Agricultural Marketing Service
Farm Service Agency

Economic Research Service

Foreign Agricultural Service

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board

September 11, 2014

WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2014/15 are raised 10 million bushels with higher expected
imports of Hard Red Spring (HRS) from Canada. This reflects higher stocks in Canada as well as the
strong shipment pace to date. Domestic use is unchanged, but exports are lowered 25 million bushels
with larger global wheat supplies and increased competition. Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat exports
are lowered 15 million bushels due to the slow pace of sales and shipments to date. HRS wheat
exports are lowered 10 million bushels with increased competition expected from Canada. A 5-millionbushel increase in Soft Red Winter wheat exports is offset by a 5-million-bushel reduction for White
wheat. Projected all wheat ending stocks are raised 35 million bushels. The projected range for the
2014/15 season-average farm price is lowered 40 cents at the midpoint to $5.50 to $6.30 per bushel.
Global 2014/15 wheat supplies are raised 6.6 million tons with increases in both beginning stocks and
production. Beginning stocks are up 2.8 million tons led by a 2-million-ton increase for China. The
China increase reflects a 2013/14 reduction in wheat feeding; however, wheat feeding is raised for
2014/15. Both changes are made to better reflect relative prices for wheat and corn in China since
summer 2013. Canada beginning stocks are up 0.8 million tons reflecting the latest stocks estimate
from Statistics Canada. World production is raised 3.9 million tons to a record 720.0 million. The
largest production increases are for EU and Ukraine, up 3.1 million tons and 2.0 million tons,
respectively. Both changes reflect updated government data. Australia production is down 0.5 million
tons reflecting persistent dryness in the northeastern growing areas and developing dryness in the
more important western and southeastern growing regions. Other major production changes include a
0.4-million-ton increase for Morocco and a 1-million-ton reduction for Algeria.
Global wheat consumption for 2014/15 is raised 3.2 million tons mostly reflecting the higher feed use
expected for China. Wheat feeding is also raised 0.5 million tons for Iran. Global wheat trade is raised
with the largest import increases for Algeria, Pakistan, and Iran. Exports are raised 1.0 million tons
each for Canada, EU, and Ukraine all due to larger supplies. Exports are raised 0.5 million tons each
for Brazil and Kazakhstan also because of large supplies. Despite record projected consumption,
global wheat supplies rise faster than use, boosting ending stocks 3.4 million tons to 196.4 million.
COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2014/15 U.S. feed grain supplies are raised this month with higher
forecast corn production. Corn production for 2014/15 is forecast 363 million bushels higher at a record
14,395 million bushels. The corn yield forecast is raised 4.3 bushels per acre to a record 171.7
bushels. Corn supplies for 2014/15 are projected at 15,607 million bushels, up 826 million bushels
from the previous record in 2013/14.
Total 2014/15 corn usage is projected at 13,605 million bushels, up 170 million from last month.
Although a record, usage is expected up just 5 million bushels from 2013/14 as export prospects
remain constrained by large foreign carryin stocks. Feed and residual use for 2014/15 is projected 75
million bushels higher this month with the larger crop and lower prices. Projected food, seed, and
industrial use is raised 70 million bushels with increases expected for both ethanol and sweeteners.
Increases are supported by the reduced corn price outlook and higher production of these corn-based
products in recent months. Corn exports are projected 25 million bushels higher with lower prices and
reduced competition expected from South America later in the marketing year. Projected U.S. corn
ending stocks are raised 194 million bushels to 2,002 million and would be the highest since 2004/05.

WASDE-533-2

The projected season-average corn farm price is lowered 40 cents at the midpoint to $3.20 to $3.80 per
bushel.
Other notable supply and use changes this month include higher projected sorghum exports for both
2013/14 and 2014/15 and an increase in expected barley imports. The 2014/15 season-average farm
price for sorghum is projected 35 cents lower at the midpoint to $3.00 to $3.60 per bushel, but the price
outlooks for barley and oats are raised reflecting higher-than-expected prices for malting barley and
oats reported during the summer months of their June-May marketing year.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 4.0 million tons higher, despite a 7.9-million-ton
reduction in foreign coarse grain production. In addition to the higher forecast U.S. corn production,
higher foreign beginning stocks also offset the reduction in foreign output. Most of the increase in
beginning stocks reflects lower 2013/14 EU corn and barley use and higher corn imports. Adding to
available EU grain supplies for 2014/15 is a combined increase of 2.1 million tons in corn and barley
output. Brazil corn production is also raised 1.0 million tons for 2014/15 with a month-to-month
increase in expected area reflecting the higher area and production reported for 2013/14. Serbia corn
production is raised 0.3 million tons for 2014/15.
Corn production for 2014/15 is reduced elsewhere with the largest reduction for China where output is
expected down 5 million tons based on persistent summer dryness in key growing areas of the North
China Plain and Northeast. Argentina corn production is lowered 3.0 million tons for 2014/15 with lower
expected plantings, but higher reported yields boost 2013/14 production 1.0 million tons. Hot, dry
conditions in Ukraine and Russia reduce 2014/15 corn production prospects by 1.0 million tons and 0.5
million tons, respectively. Other coarse grain production changes for 2014/15 include a 0.6-million-ton
reduction in Argentina sorghum and a 0.5-million-ton reduction in Argentina barley. Barley production
is also reduced for Algeria, Australia, and Azerbaijan. A 0.8-million-ton increase in Ukraine barley and
a 0.2-million-ton increase in Canada barley, combined with the higher EU output, boost global barley
production 0.5 million tons.
Global coarse grain consumption for 2014/15 is raised 2.3 million tons as higher U.S. consumption is
partly offset by a reduction in foreign corn use. Higher expected corn exports for the United States, EU,
and Serbia mostly offset an expected reduction for Argentina. Higher 2013/14 Argentina and Brazil
local marketing-year (March 2014-February 2015) exports are expected to limit opportunities for U.S.
exports during the early months of the 2014/15 U.S. marketing year (September-August); however,
lower year-to-year 2014/15 production and exports for Argentina and Brazil are expected to reduce
competition for U.S. shipments during the second half of the 2014/15 September-August marketing
year. Global corn ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected 2.1 million tons higher with reductions for
China, Argentina, and Russia more than offset by the larger stocks for the United States and Brazil.
RICE: U.S. 2014/15 rice supplies are lowered 11.5 million cwt because of declines in both beginning
stocks and production, while imports are unchanged from a month ago. U.S. rice production for
2014/15 is forecast at 218.3 million cwt, down 10.5 million from last month due both to a decrease in
area harvested and yield. Harvested area is estimated at 2.91 million acres, down 116,000 from last
month. Harvested area estimates are lowered for Arkansas and California; raised in Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Texas; and unchanged in Missouri. Medium-grain harvested area in California is
lowered 65,000 acres to 390,000 acres, down 120,000 acres from last year. The average all rice yield
is estimated at 7,501 pounds per acre, down 59 pounds per acre from last month, with decreases in
Louisiana, Missouri, and Texas, partially offset by an increase in California. Long-grain rice production
is forecast at 158.3 million cwt, down 11.1 million from last month, and combined medium- and shortgrain production is forecast at 60.0 million cwt, up 0.6 million. All rice beginning stocks for 2014/15 are
lowered 0.9 million cwt from last month to 31.8 million (rough equivalent basis) based on USDAs
August Rice Stocks report. All rice 2014/15 domestic consumption and residual is lowered 3.0 million
cwt to 131.0 million due mainly to lower supplies. Exports are forecast at 102.0 million cwt, down 7
million from last month. All rice ending stocks are lowered 1.5 million cwt to 38.1 million.

WASDE-533-3

All rice domestic and residual use for 2013/14 is raised 1.9 million cwt to 124.9 million, up 5.3 percent
from 2012/13 based mostly on the ending stocks data. The 2013/14 export projection is lowered 0.8
million cwt to 92.7 million based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau for the full marketing year.
The 2014/15 long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $12.50 to $13.50 per cwt, up
50 cents per cwt on both ends of the range from last month compared to $15.40 per cwt for 2013/14.
The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $17.25 to $18.25 per cwt, down
25 cents per cwt on both ends of the range from last month compared to a revised $18.50 per cwt for
2013/14. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $13.90 to $14.90 per cwt, up 10 cents
per cwt from a month ago compared to $16.10 per cwt for 2013/14.
Projected global 2014/15 rice ending stocks are reduced slightly on lower supplies. Global rice
production is projected at a record 477.0 million tons, down 0.4 million from last month, primarily due to
smaller crops forecast for North and South Korea and the United States. Global beginning stocks are
lowered slightly, due mostly to a reduction in Thailand. The Thailand 2013/14 export forecast is raised
0.5 million tons to 9.5 million. Global 2014/15 rice consumption is lowered a little from last month.
Global exports are lowered slightly from a month ago on a decrease for the United States, which is
partially offset by increases for Australia and Guyana. Global 2014/15 ending stocks are projected at
105.1 million tons, down 268,000 tons from last month, and a decline of 4.8 million from the previous
year. Ending stocks are lowered for Thailand, South Korea, and the United States and raised for
Australia, Guyana, and India.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 116.2 million tons, up 2.5 million from
last month. Higher soybean production is only partly offset by reductions for peanuts and cottonseed.
Soybean production is projected at a record 3,913 million bushels, up 97 million due to a higher yield
forecast. Soybean exports are raised 25 million bushels to 1,700 million mainly due to increased
supplies. Soybean crush is raised 15 million bushels to a record 1,770 million mostly on increased
soybean meal exports, which are raised on record high new-crop export sales. Domestic use of
soybean meal is raised in line with a small increase for 2013/14. Soybean ending stocks are projected
at 475 million bushels which would be the highest since 2006/07.
Changes for 2013/14 include higher soybean exports and crush and reduced ending stocks. Exports
are increased 5 million bushels to a record 1,645 million based on reported trade through July and
indications from August export inspections. Crush is increased 5 million bushels to 1,730 million.
Ending stocks are projected at 130 million bushels, down 10 million from last month. Other changes for
2013/14 include increased soybean meal imports and domestic disappearance, lower soybean meal
exports, and increased soybean oil exports.
Soybean and product prices are all projected lower for 2014/15. The U.S. season-average soybean
price is projected at $9.00 to $11.00 per bushel, down 35 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean
meal prices are projected at $330 to $370 per short ton, down $10.00 on both ends of the range.
Soybean oil prices are projected at 34 to 38 cents per pound, down 1 cent on both ends of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 528.0 million tons, up 6.2 million from last
month. Soybeans account for most of the change. In addition to the United States, projected soybean
production is increased for Brazil and Argentina where relative prices favor soybeans over corn. Brazil
soybean production is raised 3 million tons to 94 million and Argentina is raised 1 million tons to 55
million. Rapeseed production is raised for the EU reflecting exceptional weather across much of the
northern producing areas. Mostly offsetting gains for the EU, rapeseed production for Canada is
reduced to reflect lower yields reported by Statistics Canada. Other changes include higher
sunflowerseed production for the EU, lower sunflowerseed production for Argentina and Bolivia, lower
peanut production for China and India, higher India cottonseed production, and increased palm oil
production for Malaysia.

WASDE-533-4

Global oilseed trade for 2014/15 is raised 1.8 million tons to 134.0 million mainly reflecting soybean
exports for the United States and Brazil. Soybean imports are raised 1 million tons for China to 74
million and for several other countries including the EU, Japan, and Vietnam. Global oilseed crush is
projected higher on increased supplies and lower prices. Global oilseed stocks are projected higher
mainly on higher soybean stocks in Argentina, Brazil, the United States, and China.
SUGAR: For the United States, sugar imports from Mexico for 2013/14 are increased by 82,000 short
tons, raw value (STRV) based on pace to date through August and 50,000 expected to enter in
September, the last month of the fiscal year. Imports for re-export programs are increased by 60,000
STRV to 270,000 based on pace to date. Total imports are estimated at 3.787 million STRV. Because
there are no other changes for 2013/14, ending stocks are increased by the total addition to imports to
1.893 million STRV, implying a stocks-to-use ratio of 15.2 percent. For 2014/15, beginning stocks are
higher by 142,000 STRV. The 2014/15 beet sugar production is increased by 50,000 STRV based on
a processor-reported 3.3 percent sugarbeet yield increase over last months yield. Tariff-rate quota
(TRQ) sugar imports are forecast higher by 116,000 STRV due to provision for additional specialty
sugar imports made when USDA established the TRQ on September 2. Imports from Mexico for
2014/15 are reduced by 117,000 STRV to 1.088 million. With no changes to sugar use, ending stocks
are projected residually at 1.028 million STRV, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 8.5 percent.
For Mexico, 2013/14 sugar exports are increased by 100,000 metric tons (MT) with an additional
70,000 exported to the United States for a total of 1.828 million and 30,000 exported to other countries
for a total of 680,000. With no other changes, endings stocks for 2013/14 are estimated down by
100,000 MT to 614,000. The resulting 14.6 percent stocks-to-consumption ratio implies a tight market
until the full start of the 2014/15 harvest in mid-December. For 2014/15, there are no changes to
projections for imports, production, or deliveries. Ending stocks at 947,000 MT are held the same as
last month to 22.0 percent of 2014/15 human consumption of 4.306 million. Exports are projected
residually at 1.516 million MT. Exports to non-U.S. destinations based on contracts are still at 585,000
MT, implying exports to the United States at 931,000 MT, down 100,000 MT from last month. Given
U.S.-world raw sugar price margins close to or over 10 cents per pound, the preliminary countervailing
duties determined by the U.S. Department of Commerce at about 15 percent are not high enough to
discourage exports to the United States.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecasts for total meat production in 2014 and 2015 are
reduced from last month. For 2014, beef production is down as supplies of cattle coming out of
feedlots have been below expectations. However, this is partly offset by higher expected dressed
weights as lower feed costs and reduced heifer and cow slaughter boost weights. Pork production is
marginally lower as higher dressed weights are more than offset by a reduction in slaughter. USDA will
release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on September 26, providing an estimate of farrowing
intentions into early 2015. Broiler production is increased as hatchery data shows stronger increases in
the number of eggs set and chicks placed. Turkey production is slightly higher based on production
data to date. Egg production reflects actual data for the second quarter, but no changes are made to
the forecasts. For 2015, beef production is cut as lower placements of cattle in the second half of 2014
are expected to reduce supplies of fed cattle in 2015 despite heavier carcass weights. Pork production
is higher on heavier dressed weights. Broiler production is raised as expected favorable returns
support further expansion by producers. The egg production forecast is increased.
Forecasts for 2014 and 2015 beef imports are higher due to tight cull cow supplies and strong
consumer demand for processing grade beef. Beef exports for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged. Pork
trade is unchanged for 2014 and 2015. Broiler exports are unchanged for 2014, but the 2015 forecast
is raised as greater supplies and lower prices boost exports. Turkey export forecasts are raised for
2014 and 2015.

WASDE-533-5

The cattle price forecast for 2014 is raised from last month on tightness in supplies of fed cattle. The
price forecast for 2015 is unchanged. Hog price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are lowered from last
month as recent lower price levels are expected to carry into next year. Broiler price forecasts for 2014
and 2015 are lowered as supplies increase. The turkey price forecast for 2014 is raised based on
recent price data, with the forecast for 2015 unchanged. Egg price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are
virtually unchanged.
The milk production forecast for 2014 is raised on growth in output per cow, but the forecast for 2015 is
unchanged. Export forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are lowered as higher forecast U.S. prices for butter
and cheese make those products less competitive in world markets and sales of a number of other
dairy products are limited as well. Skim-solids and fat-basis imports are raised for both 2014 and 2015
as supplies in competing exporters are expected to be large while U.S. prices remain relatively high.
Butter and cheese price forecasts are raised for 2014 with strength in both expected to continue into
the first part of 2015. Nonfat dry milk prices are forecast lower in 2014 and 2015. The forecast whey
price is unchanged for 2014 but is lowered fractionally for 2015. Class III prices for 2014 and 2015 are
raised. The Class IV price is higher in 2014 but reduced in 2015. The all milk price is raised to $23.80
to $24.00 per cwt for 2014, and is lowered for 2015 to $19.40 to $20.40 per cwt.
COTTON: Revisions to the monthly forecasts of 2014/15 U.S. cotton beginning stocks, production,
and exports result in lower ending stocks relative to last months estimate. Beginning stocks are
adjusted based on reported stocks in public storage as of July 31, 2014, which are significantly less
than the calculation of supply minus use for 2013/14. Production for the 2014 crop is reduced nearly
1.0 million bales, as USDAs second crop survey of the season shows reductions mainly for Texas,
Georgia, and Arkansas. Domestic mill use is unchanged. Exports are reduced 700,000 bales on lower
domestic supplies and reduced foreign import demand. Ending stocks are now forecast at 5.2 million
bales, equivalent to 38 percent of total use. The forecast range for the marketing-year average farm
price of 58 to 70 cents per pound is lowered 2 cents on the upper end, with a midpoint of 64 cents.
This months world 2014/15 forecasts include a larger supply and lower offtake, resulting in an increase
of 1.2 million bales in world ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised mainly in China and India,
partially offset by decreases for several countries, including the United States. Production is raised for
India, the African Franc Zone, and Turkey but is reduced for the United States, Argentina, and
Uzbekistan. A reassessment of trade data for Pakistan points to lower consumption beginning in
2012/13 and accounts for most of this seasons decrease in global consumption from last month;
however, world consumption is still expected to grow nearly 4 percent in 2014/15. In addition to lower
imports for Pakistan, imports are reduced for India and Turkey, based on higher forecast production,
but are raised for Vietnam. Exports are reduced mainly for the United States, Uzbekistan, and India.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Acting Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Seth Meyer, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees.
APPROVED BY:

JOSEPH W. GLAUBER
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE
DESIGNATE

WASDE-533-6

INTERAGENCY COMMODITY ESTIMATES COMMITTEES

Note: The World Agricultural Outlook Board reviews and approves the World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The Boards analysts chair the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees (ICECs) that prepare the monthly report.

Wheat: Jerry Norton, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail: jnorton@oce.usda.gov

Gary Vocke, ERS; Teresa McKeivier, FAS; Tom Tice, FSA.
Rice: Andrew C. Aaronson, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail: aaaronson@oce.usda.gov
Nathan Childs, ERS; Debbie Rubas, FAS; Mark Simone, FSA.
Feed Grains: Jerry Norton, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail: jnorton@oce.usda.gov
Thomas Capehart, ERS; Richard OMeara, FAS; Pete Riley, FSA.
Oilseeds: Keith Menzie, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail: kmenzie@oce.usda.gov
Mark Ash, ERS; Bill George, FAS; Dale Leuck, FSA.
Cotton: Carol Skelly, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail: cskelly@oce.usda.gov
Darryl Earnest, AMS; Leslie Meyer, ERS; James Johnson, FAS; Scott Sanford, FSA.
Sugar: Stephen Haley, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail: shaley@oce.usda.gov
Stephanie Riche, ERS; Ron Lord, FAS; Barbara Fecso, FSA.
Meat Animals: Shayle Shagam, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail: sshagam@oce.usda.gov
Sherry Wise, AMS; Kenneth Mathews, ERS; Claire Mezoughem, FAS; Dale Leuck, FSA.
Poultry: Shayle Shagam, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail: sshagam@oce.usda.gov
Larry Haller, AMS; David Harvey, ERS; Lazaro Sandoval, FAS; Milton Madison, FSA.
Dairy: Shayle Shagam, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail: sshagam@oce.usda.gov
Uthra Raghunathan, AMS; Roger Hoskin, ERS; Paul Kiendl, FAS; Milton Madison, FSA.

For 2014, the WASDE report release dates are: Jan 10, Feb 10, Mar
10, Apr 9, May 9, Jun 11, Jul 11, Aug 12, Sep 11, Oct 10, Nov 10, Dec
10

WASDE-533-7

T A B L E OF C O N T E N T S
Page
Highlights ............................................................................................................... 1
Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees ..................................................... 6
World & U.S. Supply & Use for Grains ................................................................... 8
World & U.S. Supply & Use for Cotton ................................................................... 9
World & U.S. Supply & Use for Oilseeds ............................................................. 10
U.S. Wheat Supply & Use .................................................................................... 11
U.S. Wheat Supply & Use by Class ..................................................................... 11
U.S. Feed Grain & Corn Supply & Use ................................................................ 12
U.S. Sorghum, Barley & Oats Supply & Use ........................................................ 13
U.S. Rice Supply & Use ....................................................................................... 14
U.S. Soybeans & Products Supply & Use ............................................................ 15
U.S. Sugar Supply & Use..................................................................................... 16
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use ............................................................................. 16
U.S. Cotton Supply & Use.................................................................................... 17
World Wheat Supply & Use ................................................................................. 18
World Coarse Grains Supply & Use ..................................................................... 20
World Corn Supply & Use .................................................................................... 22
World Rice Supply & Use..................................................................................... 24
World Cotton Supply & Use ................................................................................. 26
World Soybean Supply & Use .............................................................................. 28
World Soybean Meal Supply & Use ..................................................................... 29
World Soybean Oil Supply & Use ........................................................................ 30
U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production ........................................................... 31
U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products ........................................................... 31
U.S. Meats Supply and Use ................................................................................. 32
U.S. Egg Supply & Use ........................................................................................ 33
U.S. Milk Supply and Use .................................................................................... 33
U.S. Dairy Prices ................................................................................................. 34
Reliability Tables ................................................................................................. 35
Related USDA Reports ........................................................................................ 38
Metric Conversion Factors ................................................................................... 38
Electronic Access and Subscriptions ....................................................................... 40

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 8
World and U.S Supply and Use for Grains 1/
Million Metric Tons
Output

Total
Supply

Trade 2/

Total
Use 3/

Ending
Stocks

2012/13
2013/14 (Est.)

2267.12
2466.78

2739.26
2921.68

299.49
369.23

2284.35
2415.19

454.90
506.49

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

2014/15 (Proj.) Aug

2014/15 (Proj.) Sep

2461.25
2466.12

2962.46
2972.62

340.28
343.50

2442.00
2447.29

520.46
525.32

World
Total Grains 4/

Wheat

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

2012/13
2013/14 (Est.)

658.16
714.05

855.02
889.65

137.36
166.31

679.42
703.20

175.60
186.45

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

2014/15 (Proj.) Aug

2014/15 (Proj.) Sep

716.09
719.95

899.75
906.39

151.80
154.83

706.79
710.01

192.96
196.38

Coarse Grains 5/ 2012/13

2013/14 (Est.)
2014/15 (Proj.) Aug
2014/15 (Proj.) Sep
Rice, milled

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

1137.25
1276.67

1305.77
1446.02

122.88
162.02

1136.41
1235.94

169.36
210.08

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

1267.81
1269.19

1475.23
1479.27

147.24
147.53

1253.13
1255.46

222.11
223.81

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

2012/13
2013/14 (Est.)

471.71
476.06

578.48
586.01

39.25
40.90

468.52
476.04

109.95
109.97

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

2014/15 (Proj.) Aug

2014/15 (Proj.) Sep

477.35
476.98

587.48
586.95

41.24
41.15

482.09
481.83

105.39
105.13

filler

filler

filler

Total Grains 4/

Wheat

filler

Trade 2/

Ending
Stocks

51.63
89.70

318.14
346.82

44.23
49.75

Output

2012/13
2013/14 (Est.)

354.01
433.51

414.00
486.26

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

2014/15 (Proj.) Aug

2014/15 (Proj.) Sep

435.42
444.33

493.60
502.85

77.56
77.54

347.67
351.22

68.38
74.09

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

2012/13
2013/14 (Est.)

61.67
57.96

85.22
82.09

27.54
32.01

38.14
34.03

19.54
16.05

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

2014/15 (Proj.) Aug

2014/15 (Proj.) Sep

55.24
55.24

75.64
75.91

25.17
24.49

32.41
32.41

18.05
19.01

Coarse Grains 5/ 2012/13

2013/14 (Est.)
2014/15 (Proj.) Aug
2014/15 (Proj.) Sep
Rice, milled

filler

Total
Use 3/

Total
Supply

United States

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

286.01
369.43

320.47
396.17

20.70
54.70

276.23
308.80

23.53
32.67

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

372.86
382.12

408.92
418.26

48.90
49.79

310.97
314.62

49.06
53.86

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

2012/13
2013/14 (Est.)

6.34
6.12

8.31
8.01

3.39
2.99

3.77
4.00

1.16
1.03

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

2014/15 (Proj.) Aug

2014/15 (Proj.) Sep

7.32
6.98

9.04
8.67

3.49
3.26

4.29
4.19

1.27
1.22

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of
export/import imbalances. 3/ Total use for the United States is equal to domestic consumption only (excludes exports).
4/ Wheat, coarse grains, and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes
millet and mixed grains).

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 9
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/
Million Metric Tons
Output

Total
Supply

Trade 2/

Total
Use

Ending
Stocks

2012/13
2013/14 (Est.)

1,913.10
2,033.27

2,325.26
2,435.42

247.86
279.53

1,966.21
2,068.37

410.68
456.75

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

2014/15 (Proj.) Aug

2014/15 (Proj.) Sep

2,025.83
2,021.79

2,468.86
2,469.77

262.72
265.96

2,094.33
2,096.07

452.09
451.23

Foreign 3/
Total Grains 4/

Wheat

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

2012/13
2013/14 (Est.)

596.49
656.09

769.79
807.56

109.82
134.29

641.28
669.18

156.06
170.40

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

2014/15 (Proj.) Aug

2014/15 (Proj.) Sep

660.85
664.71

824.11
830.48

126.63
130.34

674.38
677.60

174.91
177.38

Coarse Grains 5/ 2012/13

2013/14 (Est.)

Rice, milled

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

851.24
907.23

985.30
1,049.85

102.18
107.32

860.18
927.14

145.83
177.41

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

2014/15 (Proj.) Aug

2014/15 (Proj.) Sep

894.95
887.08

1,066.31
1,061.01

98.34
97.74

942.16
940.84

173.05
169.95

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

2012/13
2013/14 (Est.)

465.38
469.95

570.17
578.01

35.87
37.91

464.76
472.05

108.79
108.94

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

2014/15 (Proj.) Aug

2014/15 (Proj.) Sep

470.03
470.00

578.44
578.28

37.76
37.88

477.80
477.63

104.13
103.91

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of
export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains, and milled rice.
5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains.

World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/

Million 480-lb. Bales

World

United States

Foreign 4/

2012/13
2013/14 (Est.)
2014/15 (Proj.)
2014/15 (Proj.)
2012/13
2013/14 (Est.)
2014/15 (Proj.)
2014/15 (Proj.)
2012/13
2013/14 (Est.)
2014/15 (Proj.)
2014/15 (Proj.)

Aug
Sep

Aug
Sep

Aug
Sep

Output

Total
Supply

Trade 2/

Total
Use 3/

Ending
Stocks

122.95
118.70
117.64
118.01
17.32
12.91
17.50
16.54
105.63
105.79
100.14
101.48

196.41
208.52
217.60
218.31
20.68
16.82
20.11
19.00
175.74
191.70
197.49
199.31

46.74
40.95
36.29
35.18
13.03
10.53
10.70
10.00
33.71
30.42
25.59
25.18

106.52
107.99
112.60
112.12
3.50
3.55
3.80
3.80
103.02
104.44
108.80
108.32

89.82
100.30
105.08
106.29
3.90
2.45
5.60
5.20
85.92
97.85
99.48
101.09

1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Includes mill use only. 4/ Total Foreign is equal to
world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances.

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 10
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
World
Oilseeds

2012/13
2013/14 (Est.)
2014/15 (Proj.)
2014/15 (Proj.)
Oilmeals
2012/13
2013/14 (Est.)
2014/15 (Proj.)
2014/15 (Proj.)
Vegetable Oils 2012/13
2013/14 (Est.)
2014/15 (Proj.)
2014/15 (Proj.)

Aug
Sep

Aug
Sep

Aug
Sep

United States
Oilseeds

2012/13
2013/14 (Est.)
2014/15 (Proj.)
2014/15 (Proj.)
Oilmeals
2012/13
2013/14 (Est.)
2014/15 (Proj.)
2014/15 (Proj.)
Vegetable Oils 2012/13
2013/14 (Est.)
2014/15 (Proj.)
2014/15 (Proj.)

Aug
Sep

Aug
Sep

Aug
Sep

Foreign 3/
Oilseeds

2012/13
2013/14 (Est.)
2014/15 (Proj.)
2014/15 (Proj.)
Oilmeals
2012/13
2013/14 (Est.)
2014/15 (Proj.)
2014/15 (Proj.)
Vegetable Oils 2012/13
2013/14 (Est.)
2014/15 (Proj.)
2014/15 (Proj.)

Aug
Sep

Aug
Sep

Aug
Sep

Output

Total
Supply

Trade

Total
Use 2/

Ending
Stocks

474.51
503.12
521.80
528.00
268.41
280.49
289.22
290.67
160.56
170.15
175.84
176.82

539.96
570.41
602.73
608.64
280.51
291.23
301.36
302.97
177.99
187.41
194.37
195.39

118.17
133.75
132.29
134.04
78.02
82.55
86.33
86.48
68.48
68.30
70.94
71.08

396.58
415.54
426.84
428.87
264.29
274.83
284.51
284.90
156.78
165.33
172.06
172.59

67.30
80.65
99.53
103.60
10.74
12.30
11.70
12.59
17.26
18.57
19.10
19.33

Output

Total
Supply

Trade

Total
/Use 2

Ending
Stocks

93.14
97.14
113.68
116.20
38.68
39.69
40.49
40.93
10.23
10.49
10.55
10.74

100.48
106.30
120.17
122.58
42.41
43.81
44.42
44.86
15.57
15.66
16.02
15.92

36.87
45.74
46.64
47.31
10.49
10.78
10.95
11.17
1.39
1.14
1.32
1.33

50.24
51.36
52.46
53.05
31.61
32.69
33.14
33.35
13.02
13.44
13.57
13.41

5.76
4.97
13.32
14.47
0.31
0.34
0.34
0.34
1.16
1.08
1.13
1.17

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

Output

Total
Supply

Trade

Total
/Use 2

Ending
Stocks

381.37
405.98
408.13
411.80
229.73
240.80
248.72
249.74
150.34
159.66
165.29
166.08

439.48
464.12
482.57
486.06
238.09
247.42
256.94
258.11
162.41
171.75
178.36
179.48

81.30
88.01
85.65
86.73
67.54
71.76
75.38
75.31
67.09
67.16
69.62
69.74

346.35
364.18
374.38
375.83
232.68
242.14
251.37
251.55
143.76
151.89
158.49
159.18

61.53
75.67
86.21
89.13
10.43
11.96
11.36
12.26
16.10
17.49
17.97
18.16

1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total
Foreign is equal to World minus United States.

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 11
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/
2012/13

2013/14 Est.

2014/15 Proj.

2014/15 Proj.

Aug

Sep

56.5
46.2

56.5
46.2

43.9
Million Bushels
718
590
2,130
2,030
169
160
3,016
2,779
951
960
77
76
222
155
1,250
1,191
1,176
925
2,426
2,116
590
663
0
590
5
6.87
5.80 - 6.80

43.9

Million Acres
Area Planted
Area Harvested

55.7
48.9

56.2
45.2

Yield per Harvested Acre

46.3

47.2

Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Supply, Total
Food
Seed
Feed and Residual
Domestic, Total
Exports
Use, Total
Ending Stocks
CCC Inventory
Free Stocks
Outstanding Loans
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/

743
2,266
123
3,131
945
73
384
1,401
1,012
2,414
718
0
718
8
7.77

Bushels

590
2,030
170
2,789
960
76
155
1,191
900
2,091
698
0
698
0
5.50 - 6.30

U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use

Hard Red
Winter

Year beginning June 1

2013/14 (Est.) Beginning Stocks
Production
Supply, Total 3/
Domestic Use
Exports
Use, Total
Ending Stocks, Total
2014/15 (Proj.) Beginning Stocks
Production
Supply, Total 3/
Domestic Use
Exports
Use, Total
Ending Stocks, Total
Ending Stocks, Total

Sep
Aug

Hard Red
Spring

Soft Red
Winter

White

Million

Bushels

Durum

Total

343

165

124

63

23

718

744

490

565

268

62

2,130

1,106

733

710

339

129

3,016

424

318

313

118

77

1,250

446

246

283

171

31

1,176

871

564

596

289

107

2,426

235

169

114

50

22

590

235

169

114

50

22

590

729

529

466

245

61

2,030

984

773

602

303

127

2,789

443

293

266

106

83

1,191

340

250

145

145

20

900

783

543

411

251

103

2,091

201
186

230
210

191
196

52
47

24
24

698
663

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price
received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports.

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 12
U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/
FEED GRAINS

Area Planted
Area Harvested
Yield per Harvested Acre
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Supply, Total
Feed and Residual
Food Seed & Industrial
Domestic, Total
Exports
Use, Total
Ending Stocks
CCC Inventory
Free Stocks
Outstanding Loans

2012/13

109.8
96.6
2.96
27.8
285.8
6.4
320.1
115.5
160.3
275.8
20.7
296.5
23.5
0.0
23.5
0.8
13/2012

2013/14 Est.

2014/15 Proj.
Aug
Million Acres
109.9
105.2
98.2
94.0
Metric Tons
3.76
3.96
Million Metric Tons
23.5
32.8
369.2
372.6
3.0
3.0
395.7
408.5
136.8
138.9
171.6
171.6
308.4
310.5
54.7
48.9
363.1
359.4
32.7
49.0
0.0
32.7
1.3
.Est 14/2013

2014/15 Proj.
Sep
105.2
94.0
4.06
32.7
381.9
3.2
417.8
140.8
173.4
314.2
49.8
364.0
53.9

.Proj 15/2014

.Proj 15/2014

August

September

91.6
83.8

91.6
83.8

CORN
Million Acres
Area Planted
Area Harvested
Yield per Harvested Acre
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Supply, Total
Feed and Residual
Food, Seed & Industrial 2/
Ethanol & by-products 3/
Domestic, Total
Exports
Use, Total
Ending Stocks
CCC Inventory
Free Stocks
Outstanding Loans
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 4/

97.2
87.4
123.4
989
10,780
160
11,929
4,339
6,039
4,641
10,378
730
11,108
821
0
821
32
6.89

95.4
87.7

Bushels
158.8
167.4
Million Bushels
821
1,181
13,925
14,032
35
30
14,781
15,243
5,175
5,250
6,500
6,460
5,125
5,075
11,675
11,710
1,925
1,725
13,600
13,435
1,181
1,808
0
1,181
50
4.45
3.55 - 4.25

171.7
1,181
14,395
30
15,607
5,325
6,530
5,125
11,855
1,750
13,605
2,002

3.20 - 3.80

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for
barley and oats. 2/ For a breakout of FSI corn uses, see Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the Feed
Grains Database at www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database.aspx. 3/ Corn processed in ethanol plants to
produce ethanol and by-products including distillers' grains, corn gluten feed, corn gluten meal, and corn oil. 4/ Marketingyear weighted average price received by farmers.

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 13
U.S. Sorghum, Barley, and Oats Supply and Use 1/
SORGHUM

2012/13

2013/14 Est.

2014/15 Proj.
Aug

2014/15 Proj.
Sep

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

6.2
5.0
49.8
23
247
10
279
93
95
188
76
264
15
6.33

8.1
6.5
59.6
15
389
0
404
90
79
169
215
384
20
4.25

7.5
6.4
67.1
25
429
0
455
110
120
230
190
420
35
3.30 - 4.00

7.5
6.4
67.2
20
430
0
450
100
120
220
200
420
30
3.00 - 3.60

Million Bushels
Filler

Area Planted (mil. acres)

Area Harvested (mil. acres)
Yield (bushels/acre)
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Supply, Total
Feed and Residual
Food, Seed & Industrial
Total Domestic
Exports
Use, Total
Ending Stocks
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/
Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

13/2012

.Est 14/2013

.Proj 15/2014

.Proj 15/2014

BARLEY
August

Filler

Area Planted (mil. acres)

Area Harvested (mil. acres)
Yield (bushels/acre)
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Supply, Total
Feed and Residual
Food, Seed & Industrial
Total Domestic
Exports
Use, Total
Ending Stocks
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/
Filler

September

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

3.6
3.2
67.9
60
220
23
304
59
155
214
9
223
80
6.43

3.5
3.0
71.7
80
215
19
314
63
155
218
14
232
82
6.06

3.1
2.6
73.2
82
193
25
300
55
154
209
10
219
81
4.35 - 5.15

3.1
2.6
73.2
82
193
35
310
65
154
219
10
229
81
4.45 - 5.25

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

13/2012

.Est 14/2013

.Proj 15/2014

.Proj 15/2014

OATS
August

Filler

Area Planted (mil. acres)

Area Harvested (mil. acres)
Yield (bushels/acre)
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Supply, Total
Feed and Residual
Food, Seed & Industrial
Total Domestic
Exports
Use, Total
Ending Stocks
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/
Filler

September

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

2.8
1.0
61.3
55
64
93
212
98
76
174
1
176
36
3.89

3.0
1.0
64.0
36
66
97
199
98
75
173
2
175
25
3.75

3.0
1.2
67.0
25
77
100
202
90
77
167
2
169
33
2.65 - 3.25

3.0
1.2
67.0
25
77
100
202
90
77
167
2
169
33
2.75 - 3.35

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum; June 1 for barley and
oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers.

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 14
U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/
(Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice)
TOTAL RICE
Area Planted
Area Harvested

2012/13

2.70
2.68

Filler

Yield per Harvested Acre

7,449

Beginning Stocks 2/
Production
Imports
Supply, Total
Domestic & Residual 3/
Exports, Total 4/
Rough
Milled (rough equiv.)
Use, Total
Ending Stocks
Avg. Milling Yield (%) 5/
Avg. Farm Price ($/cwt) 6/

41.1
199.5
21.1
261.7
118.6
106.6
34.1
72.5
225.3
36.4
70.00
15.10

2013/14 Est.

2014/15 Proj.
Aug
Million Acres
2.49
3.05
2.47
3.03
Pounds
7,694
7,560
Million Hundredweight
36.4
32.8
189.9
228.8
23.1
21.0
249.4
282.6
124.9
134.0
92.7
109.0
28.6
34.0
64.1
75.0
217.6
243.0
31.8
39.6
71.00
70.50
16.10
13.80 - 14.80

2014/15 Proj.
Sep
2.93
2.91
7,501
31.8
218.3
21.0
271.1
131.0
102.0
34.0
68.0
233.0
38.1
70.50
13.90 - 14.90

Total

13/2012

.Est 14/2013

1.98
7,285
24.3
144.2
187.2
89.5
75.8
165.3
21.9
14.50

1.77
7,464
21.9
131.9
173.3
95.3
61.8
157.1
16.2
15.40

.Proj 15/2014

.Proj 15/2014

August

September

19.3
169.3
207.1
103.0
75.0
178.0
29.1
12.00 - 13.00

16.2
158.3
193.0
99.0
70.0
169.0
24.0
12.50 - 13.50

LONG-GRAIN RICE
Harvested Acres (mil.)
Yield (pounds/acre)
Beginning Stocks
Production
Supply, Total 7/
Domestic & Residual 3/
Exports 8/
Use, Total
Ending Stocks
Avg. Farm Price ($/cwt) 6/
Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

13/2012

.Est 14/2013

.Proj 15/2014

.Proj 15/2014

August

September

0.70
7,912
14.7
55.4
72.2
29.1
30.8
60.0
12.2
17.40

0.70
8,272
12.2
58.0
73.8
29.6
30.9
60.4
13.3
18.50

11.2
59.5
73.1
31.0
34.0
65.0
8.1
17.50 - 18.50

13.3
60.0
75.8
32.0
32.0
64.0
11.8
17.25 - 18.25

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN RICE

Harvested Acres (mil.)
Yield (pounds/acre)
Beginning Stocks
Production
Supply, Total 7/
Domestic & Residual 3/
Exports 8/
Use, Total
Ending Stocks
Avg. Farm Price ($/cwt) 6/ 9/
Filler

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included
in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2012/13-2.1; 2013/14-2.3; 2014/15-2.3. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors.
Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice
exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough
rice milled. Data supplied by the USA Rice Federation for years prior to 2013/14. The 2013/14 milling yield is calculated using Farm Service Agency (FSA) warehouse stored
loan data for long, medium, and short grain rice. The year-to-year change in the FSA average all rice milling yield is applied to the WASDE reported 2012/13 milling yield to
calculate the 2013/14 forecasted average milling yield. The 2014/15 milling yield is calculated using the previous 5-year Olympic average-- 2009/10-2013/14. 6/ Marketingyear weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. 9/ The medium/short-grain season-average- farm price (SAFP)
largely reflects rice that is marketed through price pools in California. The pool price is not final until all the rice in the pool is marketed for the crop year. Therefore, SAFP
forecasts based on the average of NASS monthly prices and the final price may differ. For example, the average difference between the August WASDE SAFP forecast and the
final price has averaged $1.63 per cwt from 2008/09 through 2012/13, with a high of $3.50 per cwt in 2008/09 and a low of $0.60 per cwt in 2009/10.

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 15
U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/
SOYBEANS
Filler

2012/13

2013/14 Est.

Filler

Filler

2014/15 Proj.
Aug

2014/15 Proj.
Sep

Filler

Filler

84.8
84.1

84.8
84.1

45.4

46.6

Million Acres
Area Planted
Area Harvested

77.2
76.2

76.5
75.9

Yield per Harvested Acre

39.8

43.3

Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Supply, Total
Crushings
Exports
Seed
Residual
Use, Total
Ending Stocks
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/

169
3,034
41
3,243
1,689
1,317
89
8
3,103
141
14.40

141
3,289
80
3,509
1,730
1,645
99
-94
3,379
130
13.00

140
3,816
15
3,971
1,755
1,675
92
19
3,541
430
9.35 - 11.35

130
3,913
15
4,058
1,770
1,700
92
22
3,583
475
9.00 - 11.00

13/2012

.Est 14/2013

.Proj 15/2014

.Proj 15/2014

August

September

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Bushels
Million Bushels

Total

SOYBEAN OIL
Filler

Million Pounds
Beginning Stocks
Production 4/
Imports
Supply, Total
Domestic Disappearance
Biodiesel 3/
Food, Feed & other Industrial
Exports
Use, Total
Ending stocks
Avg. Price (c/lb) 2/

2,540
19,820
196
22,555
18,687
4,689
13,998
2,164
20,850
1,705
47.13

1,705
20,215
165
22,085
18,750
4,800
13,950
1,900
20,650
1,435
38.25

1,485
20,270
160
21,915
18,200
4,800
13,400
2,100
20,300
1,615
35.00 - 39.00

1,435
20,445
160
22,040
18,200
4,800
13,400
2,100
20,300
1,740
34.00 - 38.00

13/2012

.Est 14/2013

.Proj 15/2014

.Proj 15/2014

August

September

Thousand Short Tons

275
300
40,975
41,685
350
165
41,600
42,150
29,700
30,100
11,600
11,750
41,300
41,850
300
300
490.00
340.00 - 380.00

300
42,035
165
42,500
30,200
12,000
42,200
300
330.00 - 370.00

Total

SOYBEAN MEAL
Filler

Beginning Stocks
Production 4/
Imports
Supply, Total
Domestic Disappearance
Exports
Use, Total
Ending Stocks
Avg. Price ($/s.t.) 2/

300
39,875
245
40,420
28,969
11,176
40,145
275
468.11

Total

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans;
October 1 for soybean oil and soybean meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; oil, simple
average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; meal, simple average of 48 percent protein, Decatur. 3/ Reflects only biodiesel made from methyl ester
as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4/ Based on an October year crush of 1,735 million bushels for 2013/14.

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 16
U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
2012/13

2013/14 Est.

Filler

Filler

Filler

2014/15 Proj.

2014/15 Proj.

Aug

Sep

Filler

Filler

1,754
8,341
4,750
3,591
1,785
180
1,500
126
2,877
1,262
400
1,215
1,205
12,972

1,896
8,391
4,800
3,591
1,785
180
1,500
126
2,876
1,378
400
1,098
1,088
13,163

250
11,885
11,750
135
0
12,135
837
6.9

250
11,885
11,750
135
0
12,135
1,028
8.5

Beginning Stocks
Production 2/
Beet Sugar
Cane Sugar
Florida
Hawaii
Louisiana
Texas
Imports
TRQ 3/
Other Program 4/
Other 5/
Mexico
Total Supply

1,979
8,982
5,076
3,906
1,867
179
1,686
173
3,224
957
136
2,131
2,124
14,184

1,000 Short Tons,Raw Value

2,158
8,417
4,750
3,667
1,759
165
1,600
143
3,787
1,371
270
2,146
2,136
14,362

Exports
Deliveries
Food 6/
Other 7/
Miscellaneous
Total Use
Ending Stocks 8/
Stocks to Use Ratio

274
11,752
11,487
265
0
12,026
2,158
17.9

325
12,141
11,700
441
0
12,466
1,896
15.2

Total

1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Historical data are from FSA "Sweetener Market Data" (SMD). 2/ Production projections for
2013/14 and 2014/15 are based on Crop Production and processor projections where appropriate. 3/ For 2014/15, WTO TRQ
shortfall (200). For 2013/14, WTO TRQ shortfall (198). 4/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs.
5/ For 2012/13, other high-tier (7) and other (0). For 2013/14, other high-tier (10) and other (0). For 2014/15, other high-tier (10)
and other (0). 6/Combines SMD deliveries for domestic human food use and SMD miscellaneous uses. 7/ Transfers to sugarcontaining products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol, feed, and ethanol. 8/ For 2012/13, includes 316,415 short tons, raw
value, of stocks held by the Commodity Credit Corporation.

Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Imports 1/
Beginning
Stocks

Production

Sugar

Imports

Domestic 2/

Exports

Ending
Stocks

1,000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight

2013/14 Est.
2013/14 Est.

Aug
Sep

1,460
1,460

6,020
6,020

226
226

4,584
4,584

2,408
2,508

714
614

2014/15 Proj.
2014/15 Proj.

Aug
Sep

714
614

6,140
6,140

399
399

4,690
4,690

1,616
1,516

947
947

1/ HFCS imports by Mexico (1,000 metric tons, dry basis): Oct-Sep 2012/13 = 1,105; Oct 2012-July 2013 = 924; Oct 2013-July
2014 =745 . Footnote source: Comite Nacional para el Desarollo Sustentable de la Cana de Azucar. 2/Includes domestic
consumption, Mexico's products export program (IMMEX), and any residual statistical discrepancies. IMMEX: 2013/14 (384
est), 2014/15 (384 proj).

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 17
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/

Filler

Area
Planted
Harvested

2012/13

2013/14 Est.

Filler

Filler

2014/15 Proj.

2014/15 Proj.

Aug

Sep

Filler

Filler

11.37
10.24

11.01
9.88

820

803

2.60
17.50
0.01
20.11
3.80
10.70
14.50
0.01
5.60
58.0 - 72.0

2.45
16.54
0.01
19.00
3.80
10.00
13.80
0.00
5.20
58.0 - 70.0

Million Acres
12.31
9.37

10.41
7.54

Filler

Yield per Harvested Acre

887

Pounds
821
Million 480 Pound Bales

Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Supply, Total
Domestic Use
Exports, Total
Use, Total
Unaccounted 2/
Ending Stocks
Avg. Farm Price 3/

3.35
17.32
0.01
20.68
3.50
13.03
16.53
0.25
3.90
72.5

3.90
12.91
0.01
16.82
3.55
10.53
14.08
0.29
2.45
77.5

Total

Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1.
Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and
ending stocks. 3/ Cents per pound for upland cotton.

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 18
World Wheat Supply and Use 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
Ending
Stocks
World 3/
175.60
United States
19.54
Total Foreign
156.06
Major Exporters 4/
20.71
Argentina
0.29
Australia
4.65
Canada
5.05
European Union 5/
10.72
Major Importers 6/
83.34
Brazil
1.00
China
53.96
Sel. Mideast 7/
8.16
N. Africa 8/
11.44
Pakistan
2.62
Southeast Asia 9/
4.14
Selected Other
0.00
India
19.95
94.88
0.02
3.40
83.82
6.82
24.20
FSU-12
26.64
77.80
7.23
21.51
71.80
25.38
14.49
Russia
10.90
37.72
1.17
11.90
33.55
11.29
4.95
Kazakhstan
6.18
9.84
0.01
2.00
6.80
6.29
2.94
Ukraine
5.36
15.76
0.05
3.10
11.40
7.19
2.58
Domestic
Domestic
Beginning
Ending
2013/14 Est.
Production
Imports
Feed
/Total 2
Exports
Stocks
Stocks
World 3/
175.60
714.05
156.61
129.25
703.20
166.31
186.45
United States
19.54
57.96
4.59
6.05
34.03
32.01
16.05
Total Foreign
156.06
656.09
152.02
123.20
669.18
134.29
170.40
Major Exporters 4/
20.71
218.15
4.58
56.45
138.70
76.67
28.06
Argentina
0.29
10.50
0.01
0.10
6.05
2.00
2.74
Australia
4.65
27.01
0.15
3.60
6.95
19.50
5.37
Canada
5.05
37.50
0.44
4.75
9.95
23.24
9.80
European Union 5/
10.72
143.13
3.98
48.00
115.75
31.93
10.16
Major Importers 6/
83.34
194.45
87.20
31.89
265.44
5.26
94.30
Brazil
1.00
5.30
7.00
0.60
11.40
0.10
1.80
China
53.96
121.93
6.77
21.00
121.50
0.89
60.27
Sel. Mideast 7/
8.16
18.92
20.66
3.21
36.48
0.58
10.68
N. Africa 8/
11.44
20.12
25.22
2.88
42.83
0.49
13.47
Pakistan
2.62
24.00
0.39
0.60
24.20
0.75
2.06
Southeast Asia 9/
4.14
0.00
16.39
2.46
15.69
0.86
3.98
Selected Other
0.00
India
24.20
93.51
0.03
4.80
94.01
5.90
17.83
FSU-12
14.49
103.87
7.55
22.75
72.99
37.06
15.87
Russia
4.95
52.09
1.00
12.50
34.00
18.50
5.54
Kazakhstan
2.94
13.94
0.01
2.00
6.80
8.10
1.98
Ukraine
2.58
22.28
0.07
3.40
11.50
9.76
3.67
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and
exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting
discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the European Union. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/
Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel,
Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

2012/13

Beginning
Stocks
196.86
20.21
176.65
27.23
0.73
7.05
5.93
13.52
87.64
1.75
55.95
5.14
14.09
4.02
4.65

Production
658.16
61.67
596.49
193.21
9.30
22.86
27.21
133.85
187.29
4.38
121.02
17.18
17.32
23.30
0.00

Imports
144.22
3.34
140.87
5.91
0.00
0.14
0.48
5.28
79.47
7.36
2.96
20.86
22.06
0.05
15.76

Domestic
Feed
137.19
10.44
126.74
59.10
0.30
3.40
4.40
51.00
35.19
0.20
25.00
2.75
2.38
0.60
2.84

Domestic
Total 2/
679.42
38.14
641.28
141.79
6.20
6.74
9.60
119.25
264.58
10.90
125.00
34.33
41.42
23.90
15.51

Exports
137.36
27.54
109.82
63.85
3.55
18.66
18.97
22.68
6.47
1.58
0.97
0.69
0.61
0.85
0.77

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 19
World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.)
(Million Metric Tons)

2014/15 Proj.
World 3/

Aug
Sep
United States
Aug
Sep
Total Foreign
Aug
Sep
Major Exporters 4/
Aug
Sep
Argentina
Aug
Sep
Australia
Aug
Sep
Canada
Aug
Sep
European Union 5/ Aug
Sep
Major Importers 6/
Aug
Sep
Brazil
Aug
Sep
China
Aug
Sep
Sel. Mideast 7/
Aug
Sep
N. Africa 8/
Aug
Sep
Pakistan
Aug
Sep
Southeast Asia 9/ Aug
Sep
Selected Other
India
Aug
Sep
FSU-12
Aug
Sep
Russia
Aug
Sep
Kazakhstan
Aug
Sep
Ukraine
Aug
Sep

Beginning
Stocks

Production

Imports

Domestic
Feed

Domestic
Total 2/

Exports

Ending
Stocks

183.66
186.45
16.05
16.05
167.61
170.40
27.19
28.06
2.74
2.74
5.37
5.37
8.99
9.80
10.09
10.16
92.21
94.30
1.80
1.80
58.27
60.27
10.63
10.68
12.96
13.47
2.17
2.06
4.02
3.98

716.09
719.95
55.24
55.24
660.85
664.71
214.37
216.77
12.50
12.30
26.00
25.50
28.00
28.00
147.87
150.97
197.88
197.18
6.30
6.30
126.00
126.00
17.63
17.53
18.85
18.25
24.50
24.50
0.00
0.00

149.87
152.95
4.35
4.63
145.52
148.33
6.14
6.14
0.01
0.01
0.15
0.15
0.48
0.48
5.50
5.50
78.28
81.25
6.50
6.50
2.00
2.00
20.38
20.90
22.80
23.95
0.50
1.50
16.60
16.60

134.62
137.76
4.22
4.22
130.40
133.55
65.00
65.00
0.10
0.10
3.40
3.40
4.50
4.50
57.00
57.00
30.86
33.34
0.60
0.60
21.00
23.00
2.98
3.46
2.38
2.38
0.70
0.70
2.41
2.41

706.79
710.01
32.41
32.41
674.38
677.60
148.20
148.20
6.15
6.15
6.80
6.80
9.75
9.75
125.50
125.50
266.65
269.60
11.90
11.90
122.00
124.00
36.29
36.79
42.68
42.83
24.40
24.70
16.24
16.24

151.80
154.83
25.17
24.49
126.63
130.34
71.50
73.30
6.50
6.30
19.00
19.00
21.00
22.00
25.00
26.00
5.34
5.84
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.53
0.53
0.48
0.48
0.70
0.70
0.84
0.84

192.96
196.38
18.05
19.01
174.91
177.38
28.00
29.46
2.60
2.60
5.72
5.22
6.72
6.53
12.96
15.13
96.37
97.28
2.20
1.70
63.27
63.27
11.81
11.79
11.46
12.37
2.07
2.66
3.55
3.51

17.83
17.83
15.97
15.87
5.54
5.54
1.69
1.98
3.81
3.67

95.85
95.85
110.17
112.23
59.00
59.00
13.50
13.50
22.00
24.00

0.02
0.02
7.33
7.17
0.70
0.70
0.01
0.01
0.10
0.05

4.50
4.50
23.70
24.36
13.00
13.00
2.00
2.00
4.00
4.00

94.40
94.40
74.49
74.77
34.50
34.50
6.80
6.80
12.00
12.00

3.00
3.00
38.06
39.54
22.50
22.50
6.00
6.50
9.00
10.00

16.30
16.30
20.92
20.95
8.24
8.24
2.39
2.19
4.91
5.72

1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and
exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting
discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the European Union. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/
Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel,
Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 20
World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/
(Million Metric Tons)

2012/13
World 3/
United States
Total Foreign
Major Exporters 4/
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Canada
Major Importers 5/
European Union 6/
Japan
Mexico
N. Afr & Mideast 7/
Saudi Arabia
Southeast Asia 8/
South Korea
Selected Other
China
FSU-12
Russia
Ukraine

2013/14 Est.
World 3/
United States
Total Foreign
Major Exporters 4/
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Canada
Major Importers 5/
European Union 6/
Japan
Mexico
N. Afr & Mideast 7/
Saudi Arabia
Southeast Asia 8/
South Korea
Selected Other

Beginning
Stocks

Production

Imports

Domestic
Feed

Domestic
Total 2/

Exports

168.52
27.82
140.70
19.38
1.34
0.94
9.82
3.39
38.80
15.58
1.09
1.86
12.56
3.13
2.64
1.54

1,137.25
286.01
851.24
170.21
37.25
11.41
84.25
24.43
227.32
145.89
0.18
28.88
26.48
0.35
25.27
0.21

128.76
6.64
122.12
1.97
0.00
0.00
1.27
0.51
92.10
11.84
17.74
7.60
23.53
10.74
7.98
8.27

669.68
115.71
553.98
76.93
7.79
3.91
47.05
12.97
237.81
113.68
13.22
19.33
45.50
10.30
25.06
6.53

1,136.41
276.23
860.18
105.23
12.05
5.49
55.80
20.26
316.79
153.00
18.03
36.20
52.68
10.73
32.97
8.71

122.88
20.70
102.18
62.11
24.05
6.02
24.98
4.99
8.10
7.36
0.00
0.52
0.13
0.00
0.09
0.00

169.36
23.53
145.83
24.22
2.48
0.85
14.56
3.08
33.33
12.95
0.98
1.62
9.76
3.49
2.83
1.31
0.00

60.37
6.15
1.81
2.42

212.19
68.21
28.66
29.53

5.60
0.73
0.34
0.05

146.05
35.54
16.40
10.93

209.67
50.20
25.13
14.66

0.11
19.87
4.30
15.00

68.39
5.03
1.38
2.33

Production

Imports

Domestic
Feed

Domestic
/Total 2

Exports

Ending
Stocks

1,276.67
369.43
907.23
173.31
34.47
12.37
82.41
28.74
246.53
158.41
0.18
30.21
30.21
0.35
26.85
0.21

154.04
3.21
150.83
1.75
0.01
0.00
1.21
0.43
111.13
16.33
18.00
11.11
28.43
12.10
10.22
10.39

736.97
136.98
599.99
80.82
8.54
3.84
48.58
14.36
255.60
121.68
13.39
22.53
48.29
10.83
26.86
7.85

1,235.94
308.80
927.14
110.88
13.30
5.51
58.38
21.56
337.90
163.30
18.20
39.80
55.80
11.25
34.97
10.12

162.02
54.70
107.32
55.76
19.01
7.08
21.52
5.14
10.49
8.43
0.00
0.40
0.31
0.00
1.34
0.00

Beginning
Stocks

169.36
23.53
145.83
24.22
2.48
0.85
14.56
3.08
33.33
12.95
0.98
1.62
9.76
3.49
2.83
1.31

Ending
Stocks

210.08
32.67
177.41
32.65
4.66
0.63
18.28
5.55
42.60
15.96
0.96
2.75
12.30
4.69
3.59
1.79
0.00

China
68.39
225.07
12.60
161.35
227.18
0.13
78.75
FSU-12
5.03
87.63
0.88
40.23
56.09
30.52
6.92
Russia
1.38
35.74
0.38
18.80
28.52
6.89
2.09
Ukraine
2.33
39.92
0.08
12.32
16.23
22.76
3.33
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes
millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries.
4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, Brazil, and South Africa. 5/ The European Union, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle
East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco,
Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 21
World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.)
(Million Metric Tons)

2014/15 Proj.
World 3/

Aug
Sep
United States
Aug
Sep
Total Foreign
Aug
Sep
Major Exporters 4/
Aug
Sep
Argentina
Aug
Sep
Australia
Aug
Sep
Brazil
Aug
Sep
Canada
Aug
Sep
Major Importers 5/
Aug
Sep
European Union 6/ Aug
Sep
Japan
Aug
Sep
Mexico
Aug
Sep
N. Afr & Mideast 7/ Aug
Sep
Saudi Arabia
Aug
Sep
Southeast Asia 8/
Aug
Sep
South Korea
Aug
Sep
Selected Other
China
FSU-12
Russia
Ukraine

Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep

Beginning
Stocks

Production

Imports

Domestic
Feed

Domestic
Total 2/

Exports

Ending
Stocks

207.43
210.08
32.80
32.67
174.63
177.41
32.95
32.65
5.46
4.66
0.73
0.63
17.98
18.28
5.25
5.55
39.20
42.60
13.55
15.96
0.96
0.96
2.75
2.75
12.00
12.30
4.70
4.69
3.39
3.59
1.49
1.79

1,267.81
1,269.19
372.86
382.12
894.95
887.08
159.86
156.71
35.17
31.12
11.76
11.61
77.11
78.11
21.77
21.82
240.11
241.48
155.89
157.97
0.18
0.18
30.14
30.14
25.68
24.99
0.36
0.35
27.51
27.51
0.21
0.21

145.04
144.00
3.26
3.48
141.78
140.52
1.88
1.86
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
1.21
1.21
0.56
0.54
104.58
103.34
11.31
10.31
18.90
18.60
11.40
11.40
29.21
29.36
10.41
10.50
9.22
9.24
9.59
9.59

752.78
752.25
139.12
140.99
613.67
611.26
82.18
82.23
8.87
9.17
4.26
4.16
50.08
50.08
13.27
13.12
255.04
255.64
116.05
116.95
14.29
13.99
23.42
23.42
50.16
49.96
11.13
11.20
27.77
27.99
7.85
7.85

1,253.13
1,255.46
310.97
314.62
942.16
940.84
112.86
112.81
13.83
14.13
5.94
5.84
59.90
59.90
20.77
20.52
338.10
338.90
157.87
158.97
19.10
18.80
40.94
40.94
57.82
57.62
11.60
11.68
35.97
36.19
10.12
10.12

147.24
147.53
48.90
49.79
98.34
97.74
51.97
48.97
20.31
17.21
5.73
5.73
20.01
20.01
3.70
3.80
9.16
10.46
8.11
9.41
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
0.11
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.44
0.44
0.00
0.00

222.11
223.81
49.06
53.86
173.05
169.95
29.86
29.43
6.50
4.45
0.83
0.68
16.39
17.69
3.11
3.58
36.62
38.06
14.77
15.86
0.94
0.94
2.85
2.85
8.96
8.91
3.86
3.86
3.71
3.71
1.17
1.47

78.75
78.75
6.90
6.92
2.09
2.09
3.31
3.33

228.75
223.75
89.29
88.49
40.50
40.00
36.51
36.31

10.00
10.00
0.88
0.88
0.28
0.28
0.06
0.06

167.35
165.35
45.05
44.20
21.60
21.60
13.80
13.00

235.50
233.50
61.15
60.30
31.80
31.80
17.48
16.68

0.13
0.13
26.85
27.75
7.41
7.41
18.56
19.46

81.88
78.88
9.06
8.24
3.65
3.15
3.83
3.55

1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes
millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and
exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina,
Australia, Canada, Brazil, and South Africa. 5/ The European Union, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea,
Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey.
8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 22
World Corn Supply and Use 1/
(Million Metric Tons)

2012/13
World 3/
United States
Total Foreign
Major Exporters 4/
Argentina
Brazil
South Africa
Major Importers 5/
Egypt
European Union 6/
Japan
Mexico
Southeast Asia 7/
South Korea
Selected Other
Canada
China
FSU-12
Ukraine

2013/14 Est.
World 3/
United States
Total Foreign
Major Exporters 4/
Argentina
Brazil
South Africa
Major Importers 5/
Egypt
European Union 6/
Japan
Mexico
Southeast Asia 7/
South Korea
Selected Other
Canada
China
FSU-12
Ukraine

Beginning
Stocks Production

Imports

Domestic Domestic
Feed Total 2/

Exports

134.61
25.12
109.49
13.79
0.90
9.21
3.68
15.34
2.22
6.67
0.61
1.32
2.64
1.48

868.76
273.83
594.93
120.87
27.00
81.50
12.37
111.62
5.80
58.87
0.00
21.59
25.22
0.08

99.42
4.06
95.35
0.97
0.00
0.89
0.08
56.86
5.06
11.35
14.41
5.68
7.96
8.17

519.09
110.22
408.87
54.90
5.30
44.50
5.10
119.28
9.70
53.00
10.00
11.00
25.00
6.48

865.22
263.61
601.61
71.40
7.90
52.50
11.00
168.51
11.70
69.60
14.50
27.00
32.90
8.48

95.16
18.55
76.61
45.69
18.69
24.95
2.06
2.82
0.01
2.19
0.00
0.52
0.09
0.00

1.37
59.34
2.45
1.05

13.06
205.61
32.31
20.92

0.48
2.70
0.34
0.04

6.28
144.00
15.52
6.80

11.61
200.00
18.09
8.10

1.75
0.08
15.00
12.73

Beginning
Stocks

Production

Domestic
Feed

Imports

Domestic
/Total 2

Exports

138.15
20.86
117.29
18.53
1.32
14.15
3.06
12.50
1.37
5.09
0.52
1.06
2.82
1.26

986.68
353.72
632.96
119.05
25.00
79.30
14.75
119.37
5.80
64.19
0.00
22.40
26.80
0.08

121.22
0.89
120.33
0.84
0.01
0.80
0.03
75.10
8.00
16.00
15.50
10.70
10.20
10.30

575.26
131.45
443.81
57.00
5.60
46.00
5.40
132.70
10.50
57.50
11.00
15.00
26.80
7.80

951.75
296.56
655.19
75.00
8.50
55.00
11.50
184.83
12.70
76.00
15.50
31.50
34.90
9.90

128.65
48.90
79.75
39.50
15.00
21.50
3.00
3.94
0.01
2.20
0.00
0.40
1.33
0.00

1.55
67.57
2.00
1.19

14.20
218.49
46.90
30.90

0.40
3.50
0.39
0.05

6.60
154.00
18.67
8.50

11.80
212.00
21.44
9.90

1.80
0.10
24.55
20.00

Ending
Stocks
138.15
20.86
117.29
18.53
1.32
14.15
3.06
12.50
1.37
5.09
0.52
1.06
2.82
1.26
0.00
1.55
67.57
2.00
1.19

Ending
Stocks

173.08
30.01
143.07
23.91
2.83
17.75
3.34
18.20
2.46
7.08
0.52
2.26
3.59
1.74
0.00
2.55
77.46
3.31
2.24

1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in
world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing
years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Brazil, and South
Africa. 5/ Egypt, the European Union, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade
excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 23
World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.)
(Million Metric Tons)

2014/15 Proj.
World 3/

Aug
Sep
United States
Aug
Sep
Total Foreign
Aug
Sep
Major Exporters 4/ Aug
Sep
Argentina
Aug
Sep
Brazil
Aug
Sep
South Africa
Aug
Sep
Major Importers 5/ Aug
Sep

Beginning
Stocks Production
171.09
173.08
30.01
30.01
141.08
143.07
24.31
23.91
3.53
2.83
17.45
17.75
3.34
3.34
15.80
18.20
filler

Egypt

Aug
Sep
European Union Aug
Sep
6/
Japan
Aug
Sep
Mexico
Aug
Sep
Southeast Asia 7/ Aug
Sep
South Korea
Aug
Sep
Selected Other
Canada
Aug
Sep
China
Aug
Sep
FSU-12
Aug
Sep
Ukraine
Aug
Sep

985.39
987.52
356.43
365.66
628.97
621.86
113.50
111.50
26.00
23.00
74.00
75.00
13.50
13.50
122.97
124.27
filler

Imports

Domestic
Feed

Domestic
Total 2/

Exports

Ending
Stocks

114.22
112.87
0.76
0.76
113.46
112.11
0.84
0.84
0.01
0.01
0.80
0.80
0.03
0.03
67.50
66.00

594.42
594.02
133.36
135.26
461.06
458.76
59.10
59.20
6.00
6.10
47.50
47.50
5.60
5.60
133.40
134.20

968.67
970.69
297.45
301.13
671.22
669.56
77.30
77.50
9.00
9.20
56.50
56.50
11.80
11.80
186.38
187.18

115.86
115.19
43.82
44.45
72.04
70.74
38.20
36.20
16.00
14.00
20.00
20.00
2.20
2.20
2.95
3.45

187.82
189.91
45.93
50.84
141.88
139.06
23.15
22.55
4.54
2.64
15.75
17.05
2.86
2.86
16.95
17.85

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

2.46
2.46
5.38
7.08
0.52
0.52
2.26
2.26
3.39
3.59
1.44
1.74

5.75
5.75
67.05
68.35
0.00
0.00
22.50
22.50
27.46
27.46
0.08
0.08

6.50
6.50
11.00
10.00
16.00
15.70
10.90
10.90
9.20
9.20
9.50
9.50

10.60
10.60
55.50
56.50
11.50
11.20
16.00
16.00
27.70
27.90
7.80
7.80

12.80
12.80
74.50
75.50
16.00
15.70
32.75
32.75
35.90
36.10
9.90
9.90

0.01
0.01
2.00
2.50
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
0.44
0.44
0.00
0.00

1.90
1.90
6.93
7.43
0.53
0.53
2.41
2.41
3.71
3.71
1.12
1.42

2.40
2.55
77.46
77.46
3.31
3.31
2.24
2.24

11.60
11.60
222.00
217.00
44.16
42.66
27.00
26.00

0.50
0.50
3.00
3.00
0.42
0.42
0.05
0.05

6.70
6.60
162.00
160.00
21.09
20.09
9.50
8.50

12.20
12.00
222.00
220.00
23.96
22.96
10.90
9.90

1.00
1.00
0.10
0.10
19.94
19.94
16.00
16.00

1.30
1.65
80.36
77.36
3.99
3.49
2.39
2.39

1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world
imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in
transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the European
Union, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia,
Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 24
World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/
(Million Metric Tons)

2012/13
World 3/
United States
Total Foreign
Major Exporters 4/
India
Pakistan
Thailand
Vietnam
Major Importers 5/
Brazil
European Union 6/
Indonesia
Nigeria
Philippines
Sel. Mideast 7/
Selected Other
Burma
C. Amer & Carib 8/
China
Egypt
Japan
Mexico
South Korea

2013/14 Est.
World 3/
United States
Total Foreign
Major Exporters 4/
India
Pakistan
Thailand
Vietnam
Major Importers 5/
Brazil
European Union 6/
Indonesia
Nigeria
Philippines
Sel. Mideast 7/
Selected Other
Burma
C. Amer & Carib 8/
China
Egypt
Japan
Mexico
South Korea

Beginning
Stocks

Production

Imports

Total /2
Domestic

Exports

Ending
Stocks

106.76
1.30
105.46
36.81
25.10
0.55
9.33
1.83
12.90
0.54
1.12
7.40
1.02
1.51
0.97

471.71
6.34
465.38
158.78
105.24
5.80
20.20
27.54
62.61
8.04
2.10
36.55
2.37
11.43
1.65

36.38
0.67
35.71
0.75
0.00
0.05
0.60
0.10
13.13
0.64
1.40
0.65
2.80
1.40
4.84

468.52
3.77
464.76
128.85
94.03
2.32
10.60
21.90
75.45
7.85
3.25
38.13
5.30
12.85
6.05

39.25
3.39
35.87
27.87
10.87
3.58
6.72
6.70
1.07
0.84
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

109.95
1.16
108.79
39.61
25.44
0.50
12.81
0.86
12.12
0.53
1.16
6.48
0.89
1.49
1.40
0.00

0.40
0.43
45.02
0.49
2.75
0.15
0.73

11.72
1.65
143.00
4.68
7.76
0.13
4.01

0.00
1.42
3.14
0.02
0.69
0.74
0.51

10.40
3.14
144.00
4.05
8.25
0.84
4.50

1.16
0.01
0.34
0.70
0.20
0.00
0.00

0.55
0.35
46.83
0.43
2.74
0.19
0.74

Beginning
Stocks

Production

Imports

Total /2
Domestic

Exports

Ending
Stocks

109.95
1.16
108.79
39.61
25.44
0.50
12.81
0.86
12.12
0.53
1.16
6.48
0.89
1.49
1.40

476.06
6.12
469.95
161.60
106.54
6.60
20.46
28.00
63.18
8.30
1.94
36.00
2.77
11.81
1.83

38.83
0.73
38.09
0.63
0.00
0.03
0.30
0.30
13.80
0.70
1.35
1.40
3.00
1.45
4.33

476.04
4.00
472.05
131.51
96.50
2.63
10.88
21.50
76.75
7.90
3.23
38.50
6.00
12.85
6.20

40.90
2.99
37.91
29.90
10.00
3.90
9.50
6.50
1.18
0.95
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

109.97
1.03
108.94
40.44
25.48
0.60
13.19
1.16
11.17
0.68
1.03
5.38
0.66
1.90
1.36
0.00

0.55
0.35
46.83
0.43
2.74
0.19
0.74

11.96
1.72
142.53
4.88
7.83
0.13
4.23

0.00
1.56
3.90
0.03
0.70
0.73
0.41

10.50
3.27
146.30
4.00
8.25
0.86
4.61

1.30
0.01
0.26
0.80
0.20
0.00
0.00

0.71
0.33
46.70
0.53
2.82
0.18
0.78

1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. Total
domestic includes both domestic use and unreported disappearance. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in
some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected
Middle East, and the EU-28. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central
American and Caribbean countries.

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 25
World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.)
(Million Metric Tons)
Beginning
Stocks

Production

Imports

Total /2
Domestic

Exports

Ending
Stocks

Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep

110.13
109.97
1.06
1.03
109.07
108.94
40.69
40.44
25.23
25.48
0.60
0.60
13.69
13.19
1.16
1.16
11.18
11.17
0.68
0.68
1.04
1.03
5.38
5.38
0.66
0.66
1.90
1.90
1.36
1.36

477.35
476.98
7.32
6.98
470.03
470.00
158.40
158.40
103.00
103.00
6.70
6.70
20.50
20.50
28.20
28.20
64.45
64.43
8.35
8.35
1.97
1.95
37.00
37.00
2.55
2.55
12.20
12.20
1.85
1.85

38.71
38.71
0.67
0.67
38.04
38.04
0.73
0.73
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.03
0.30
0.30
0.40
0.40
14.30
14.30
0.70
0.70
1.40
1.40
1.00
1.00
3.50
3.50
1.60
1.60
4.48
4.48

482.09
481.83
4.29
4.19
477.80
477.63
133.10
133.10
98.00
98.00
2.70
2.70
10.90
10.90
21.50
21.50
78.10
78.10
7.90
7.90
3.20
3.20
39.20
39.20
6.10
6.10
13.20
13.20
6.38
6.38

41.24
41.15
3.49
3.26
37.76
37.88
29.30
29.30
8.70
8.70
3.90
3.90
10.00
10.00
6.70
6.70
1.12
1.12
0.90
0.90
0.19
0.19
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

105.39
105.13
1.27
1.22
104.13
103.91
37.42
37.17
21.53
21.78
0.73
0.73
13.59
13.09
1.56
1.56
10.71
10.68
0.93
0.93
1.02
0.99
4.18
4.18
0.61
0.61
2.50
2.50
1.31
1.31

Aug
Sep
C. Amer & Carib 8/ Aug
Sep
China
Aug
Sep
Egypt
Aug
Sep
Japan
Aug
Sep
Mexico
Aug
Sep
South Korea
Aug
Sep

0.71
0.71
0.33
0.33
46.70
46.70
0.53
0.53
2.82
2.82
0.18
0.18
0.78
0.78

12.15
12.15
1.74
1.75
144.00
144.00
4.90
4.90
7.70
7.70
0.13
0.13
4.15
4.05

0.00
0.00
1.55
1.55
3.70
3.70
0.06
0.06
0.70
0.70
0.78
0.78
0.41
0.41

11.00
11.00
3.28
3.29
148.00
148.00
4.10
4.10
8.20
8.20
0.89
0.89
4.59
4.59

1.30
1.30
0.01
0.01
0.35
0.35
0.88
0.88
0.20
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.56
0.56
0.33
0.33
46.05
46.05
0.52
0.52
2.82
2.82
0.19
0.19
0.75
0.65

2014/15 Proj.
World 3/
United States
Total Foreign
Major Exporters 4/
India
Pakistan
Thailand
Vietnam
Major Importers 5/
Brazil
European Union 6/
Indonesia
Nigeria
Philippines
Sel. Mideast 7/

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

filler

Selected Other
Burma

1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports
and exports. Total domestic includes both domestic use and unreported disappearance. 3/ World imports and exports may
not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong
Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-28. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected
Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries.

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 26
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)

2012/13
World
United States
Total Foreign
Major Exporters 4/
Central Asia 5/
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/
S. Hemis 7/
Australia
Brazil
India
Major Importers 8/
Mexico
China
European Union 9/
Turkey
Pakistan
Indonesia
Thailand
Bangladesh
Vietnam

2013/14 Est.
World
United States
Total Foreign
Major Exporters 4/
Central Asia 5/
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/
S. Hemis 7/
Australia
Brazil
India
Major Importers 8/
Mexico
China
European Union 9/
Turkey
Pakistan
Indonesia
Thailand
Bangladesh
Vietnam

Beginning
Stocks

Production

Imports

Domestic
Use

Exports

Loss
/2

Ending
Stocks

73.47
3.35
70.12
29.11
3.09
1.14
13.55
3.81
7.99
10.87
39.14
0.71
31.08
0.69
1.24
2.84
0.48
0.26
0.87
0.32

122.95
17.32
105.63
53.40
7.27
4.21
12.21
4.60
6.00
28.50
49.63
1.04
35.00
1.49
2.65
9.30
0.03
3/
0.11
0.02

45.79
0.01
45.78
1.60
3/
3/
0.17
3/
0.07
1.20
41.43
0.95
20.33
0.93
3.69
1.80
2.60
1.51
3.90
2.41

106.52
3.50
103.02
30.63
2.33
0.16
5.17
0.04
4.10
21.85
68.74
1.80
36.00
0.92
6.05
10.75
2.55
1.48
3.90
2.25

46.74
13.03
33.71
29.12
5.34
4.11
11.50
6.17
4.31
7.75
2.71
0.23
0.05
1.58
0.22
0.45
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00

-0.88
0.25
-1.13
-1.32
0.00
0.00
-0.33
-0.20
-0.15
-1.00
0.19
0.03
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.03
0.05
0.03
0.01
0.00

89.82
3.90
85.92
25.67
2.70
1.08
9.59
2.39
5.80
11.97
58.57
0.65
50.36
0.56
1.32
2.71
0.50
0.27
0.97
0.49

Beginning
Stocks

Production

Imports

Domestic
Use

Exports

Loss
/2

Ending
Stocks

89.82
3.90
85.92
25.67
2.70
1.08
9.59
2.39
5.80
11.97
58.57
0.65
50.36
0.56
1.32
2.71
0.50
0.27
0.97
0.49

118.70
12.91
105.79
56.61
6.55
4.21
13.82
4.10
7.80
31.00
46.48
0.92
32.00
1.60
2.30
9.50
0.03
3/
0.12
0.02

40.36
0.01
40.35
1.38
3/
3/
0.23
3/
0.15
0.75
35.98
1.04
14.12
0.90
4.20
1.20
2.65
1.55
4.10
3.20

107.99
3.55
104.44
32.36
2.41
0.16
5.30
0.04
4.20
23.50
68.34
1.85
34.50
0.93
6.25
10.40
2.65
1.50
4.15
3.20

40.95
10.53
30.42
25.97
4.33
3.99
7.86
4.85
2.23
9.40
2.56
0.16
0.03
1.52
0.21
0.51
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00

-0.34
0.29
-0.64
-0.83
0.00
0.00
-0.34
-0.20
-0.15
-0.50
0.19
0.03
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.03
0.05
0.03
0.01
0.00

100.30
2.45
97.85
26.17
2.51
1.15
10.83
1.80
7.47
11.32
69.95
0.58
61.96
0.56
1.36
2.48
0.47
0.29
1.02
0.51

1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/
Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the
difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes
Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan,
and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and
Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions
listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 27
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
Beginning
Stocks

Production

Imports

Domestic
Use

Exports

Loss
/2

Ending
Stocks

Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep

99.96
100.30
2.60
2.45
97.36
97.85

117.64
118.01
17.50
16.54
100.14
101.48

36.30
35.19
0.01
0.01
36.29
35.18

112.60
112.12
3.80
3.80
108.80
108.32

36.29
35.18
10.70
10.00
25.59
25.18

-0.07
-0.09
0.01
0.00
-0.09
-0.09

105.08
106.29
5.60
5.20
99.48
101.09

Major Exporters 4/ Aug

Sep
Central Asia 5/ Aug
Sep
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ Aug
Sep
S. Hemis 7/
Aug
Sep
Australia
Aug
Sep
Brazil
Aug
Sep
India
Aug
Sep

26.13
26.17
2.61
2.51
1.15
1.15
10.92
10.83
1.85
1.80
7.47
7.47
11.12
11.32

Major Importers 8/ Aug

Sep
Mexico
Aug
Sep
China
Aug
Sep
European Union Aug
Sep
9/
Turkey
Aug
Sep
Pakistan
Aug
Sep
Indonesia
Aug
Sep
Thailand
Aug
Sep
Bangladesh
Aug
Sep
Vietnam
Aug
Sep

69.48
69.95
0.52
0.58
61.41
61.96
0.55
0.56
1.42
1.36
2.59
2.48
0.47
0.47
0.29
0.29
1.02
1.02
0.51
0.51

2014/15 Proj.
World
United States
Total Foreign

filler

filler

filler

52.42
53.50
6.59
6.46
4.22
4.51
11.80
11.71
2.50
2.50
7.30
7.30
29.00
30.00
filler

44.95
45.25
1.20
1.20
29.50
29.50
1.69
1.74
2.90
3.15
9.50
9.50
0.03
0.03
3/
3/
0.12
0.12
0.02
0.02

filler

1.61
1.31
3/
3/
3/
3/
0.16
0.16
3/
3/
0.08
0.08
1.10
0.80
filler

31.62
30.80
1.05
1.03
8.00
8.00
0.90
0.90
4.00
3.75
2.20
1.60
2.85
2.88
1.63
1.63
4.45
4.50
3.30
3.40

filler

33.29
33.34
2.45
2.45
0.15
0.15
5.09
5.09
0.04
0.04
4.00
4.00
24.75
24.75
filler

71.76
71.23
1.85
1.88
36.50
36.50
0.97
0.96
6.50
6.45
11.00
10.50
2.75
2.75
1.58
1.55
4.40
4.45
3.25
3.25

filler

21.21
20.93
3.82
3.60
3.71
3.81
7.58
7.55
3.00
3.00
3.70
3.70
5.80
5.70
filler

2.53
2.42
0.18
0.20
0.05
0.05
1.43
1.43
0.20
0.20
0.45
0.40
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

filler

-0.28
-0.28
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.29
-0.29
-0.15
-0.15
-0.15
-0.15
0.00
0.00
filler

0.19
0.19
0.03
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.03
0.05
0.05
0.03
0.03
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00

filler

25.94
26.98
2.93
2.93
1.50
1.70
10.49
10.34
1.47
1.42
7.29
7.29
10.67
11.67
filler

71.57
72.16
0.72
0.70
62.36
62.91
0.68
0.75
1.62
1.61
2.81
2.65
0.54
0.57
0.31
0.34
1.18
1.18
0.57
0.67

1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors.
2/
Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the
difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes
Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and
Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed,
includes Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 28

Beginning
Stocks

2012/13
World 2/
United States
Total Foreign
Major Exporters 3/
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Major Importers 4/
China
European Union
Japan
Mexico

53.55
4.61
48.94
29.80
16.39
13.02
0.36
17.00
15.91
0.54
0.13
0.13

2013/14 Est.
World 2/
United States
Total Foreign
Major Exporters 3/
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Major Importers 4/
China
European Union
Japan
Mexico

World Soybean Supply and Use 1/

(Million Metric Tons)
Production
Imports
Domestic
Domestic
Crush
Total
267.83
82.56
185.27
143.15
49.30
82.00
8.20
15.33
13.05
0.95
0.24
0.25

95.88
1.10
94.77
0.42
0.00
0.40
0.03
84.19
59.87
12.51
2.83
3.41

Exports

Ending
Stocks

229.57
45.97
183.61
71.90
33.61
35.24
2.95
86.14
64.95
12.74
1.92
3.65

259.90
48.60
211.30
76.89
35.55
38.19
3.03
102.90
76.18
13.65
3.01
3.69

100.52
35.85
64.67
58.69
7.74
41.90
5.52
0.38
0.27
0.09
0.00
0.00

56.84
3.83
53.01
37.80
22.40
15.33
0.04
13.24
12.38
0.25
0.18
0.10

Beginning
Stocks

Production

Imports

cDomesti
Crush

Domestic
Total

Exports

Ending
Stocks

56.84
3.83
53.01
37.80
22.40
15.33
0.04
13.24
12.38
0.25
0.18
0.10

283.13
89.51
193.62
152.30
54.00
86.70
8.10
14.75
12.20
1.23
0.20
0.25

108.92
2.18
106.74
0.63
0.00
0.60
0.03
94.50
69.00
12.65
2.87
3.85

239.93
47.08
192.85
76.88
37.23
36.00
3.50
90.36
68.75
12.50
1.94
4.00

269.05
47.19
221.85
82.08
39.28
39.00
3.64
107.56
80.10
13.43
3.03
4.04

112.93
44.77
68.16
62.54
8.50
46.40
4.30
0.32
0.24
0.06
0.00
0.00

66.91
3.55
63.36
46.11
28.63
17.23
0.23
14.61
13.24
0.64
0.22
0.17

Beginning
Stocks

Production

Imports

Domestic
Crush

Domestic
Total

Exports

Ending
Stocks

67.09
66.91
3.82
3.55
63.27
63.36
45.98
46.11
28.63
28.63
17.11
17.23
0.23
0.23
14.62
14.61
13.29
13.24
0.64
0.64
0.18
0.22
0.17
0.17

304.69
311.13
103.85
106.50
200.85
204.63
156.60
160.60
54.00
55.00
91.00
94.00
8.20
8.20
14.85
14.85
12.00
12.00
1.47
1.47
0.21
0.21
0.29
0.29

110.55
112.50
0.41
0.41
110.14
112.09
0.53
0.63
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.60
0.03
0.03
98.69
100.19
73.00
74.00
12.50
12.75
2.80
2.90
3.90
3.95

250.90
252.08
47.76
48.17
203.14
203.91
80.80
81.20
39.80
39.80
37.10
37.60
3.70
3.60
95.54
95.72
73.50
73.50
12.66
12.66
1.95
1.97
4.10
4.20

283.40
284.98
50.78
51.26
232.62
233.72
86.06
86.61
41.90
41.90
40.10
40.75
3.84
3.74
112.97
113.29
84.90
84.95
13.64
13.69
3.01
3.07
4.14
4.24

113.32
115.40
45.59
46.27
67.73
69.13
61.00
62.70
8.50
8.50
45.00
46.70
4.32
4.32
0.39
0.39
0.30
0.30
0.07
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

85.62
90.17
11.71
12.93
73.91
77.24
56.05
58.03
32.23
33.23
23.51
24.38
0.30
0.40
14.79
15.97
13.09
13.99
0.90
1.10
0.17
0.26
0.22
0.17

2014/15 Proj.
World 2/
United States
Total Foreign
Major Exporters 3/
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Major Importers 4/
China
European Union
Japan
Mexico

Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep

1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance
due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina,
Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. 4/ China, European Union, Japan, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand).

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 29
World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/
(Million Metric Tons)

2012/13
World 2/
United States
Total Foreign
Major Exporters 3/
Argentina
Brazil
India
Major Importers 4/
European Union
Southeast Asia 5/

2013/14 Est.

Beginning
Stocks

Production

Imports

Domestic
Total

Exports

Ending
Stocks

9.65
0.27
9.37
6.25
2.92
3.20
0.13
1.48
0.37
0.90

180.95
36.17
144.78
61.20
26.09
27.31
7.80
13.90
10.19
2.26

53.78
0.22
53.56
0.04
0.00
0.03
0.01
31.18
16.94
12.47

177.30
26.28
151.02
19.33
1.60
14.20
3.53
45.05
26.89
14.81

57.82
10.14
47.68
41.26
23.67
13.24
4.35
0.57
0.54
0.04

9.25
0.25
9.00
6.89
3.74
3.10
0.05
0.93
0.08
0.78

Production

Imports

Domestic
Total

Exports

Ending
Stocks

188.91
37.17
151.74
63.45
28.80
27.77
6.88
13.88
9.94
2.47

57.64
0.32
57.33
0.03
0.00
0.03
0.01
33.89
18.70
13.15

184.87
26.94
157.92
20.15
1.80
14.40
3.95
47.08
27.97
15.63

60.59
10.52
50.07
42.60
25.70
14.10
2.80
0.42
0.35
0.07

10.35
0.27
10.07
7.62
5.04
2.40
0.19
1.20
0.40
0.71

Beginning
Stocks

World 2/
United States
Total Foreign
Major Exporters 3/
Argentina
Brazil
India
Major Importers 4/
European Union
Southeast Asia 5/

9.25
0.25
9.00
6.89
3.74
3.10
0.05
0.93
0.08
0.78
Beginning
Stocks

Production

Imports

Domestic
Total

Exports

Ending
Stocks

10.20
10.35
0.27
0.27
9.93
10.07
7.30
7.62
3.77
5.04
3.33
2.40
0.21
0.19
1.30
1.20
0.40
0.40
0.81
0.71

197.78
198.72
37.82
38.13
159.97
160.58
66.72
67.15
30.95
30.95
28.57
29.00
7.20
7.20
14.14
14.20
10.06
10.06
2.60
2.64

60.71
60.63
0.15
0.15
60.56
60.48
0.03
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.03
0.01
0.01
36.00
35.85
19.80
19.80
14.10
13.95

194.28
194.32
27.31
27.40
166.97
166.93
20.97
21.02
1.80
2.00
15.00
14.85
4.17
4.17
49.26
49.10
29.14
29.14
16.53
16.36

64.42
64.58
10.66
10.89
53.76
53.69
46.32
46.32
29.52
29.22
13.80
14.10
3.00
3.00
0.72
0.62
0.65
0.55
0.07
0.07

10.00
10.79
0.27
0.27
9.73
10.52
6.77
7.47
3.40
4.77
3.12
2.47
0.25
0.23
1.45
1.52
0.46
0.56
0.91
0.87

2014/15 Proj.
World 2/
United States
Total Foreign
Major Exporters 3/
Argentina
Brazil
India
Major Importers 4/
European Union
Southeast Asia 5/

Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep

1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and
imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ European Union, Southeast Asia, and
Japan. 5/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand.

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 30
World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/
(Million Metric Tons)

2012/13
World 2/
United States
Total Foreign
Major Exporters 3/
Argentina
Brazil
European Union
Major Importers 4/
China
India
North Africa 5/

2013/14 Est.

Beginning
Stocks

Production

Imports

Domestic
Total

Exports

Ending
Stocks

3.88
1.15
2.72
0.89
0.32
0.42
0.15
1.08
0.62
0.36
0.10

42.89
8.99
33.90
15.44
6.36
6.76
2.32
13.78
11.63
1.74
0.41

8.43
0.09
8.34
0.40
0.09
0.01
0.30
3.88
1.41
1.09
1.39

42.34
8.48
33.87
9.46
2.28
5.53
1.65
17.15
12.55
2.91
1.69

9.32
0.98
8.34
6.51
4.24
1.25
1.01
0.16
0.08
0.00
0.08

3.54
0.77
2.77
0.76
0.26
0.40
0.10
1.43
1.02
0.28
0.13

Beginning
Stocks

World 2/
United States
Total Foreign
Major Exporters 3/
Argentina
Brazil
European Union
Major Importers 4/
China
India
North Africa 5/

3.54
0.77
2.77
0.76
0.26
0.40
0.10
1.43
1.02
0.28
0.13
Beginning
Stocks

Production

Imports

Domestic
Total

Exports

Ending
Stocks

44.77
9.17
35.60
16.21
7.03
6.91
2.27
14.30
12.32
1.54
0.44

8.93
0.08
8.85
0.32
0.00
0.00
0.32
4.23
1.25
1.55
1.43

44.80
8.51
36.29
10.24
2.78
5.69
1.77
18.50
13.51
3.22
1.77

9.34
0.86
8.48
6.44
4.21
1.43
0.80
0.18
0.10
0.00
0.08

3.10
0.65
2.45
0.61
0.30
0.19
0.12
1.28
0.99
0.15
0.15

ductionPro

Imports

Domestic
Total

Exports

Ending
Stocks

46.75
47.00
9.19
9.27
37.56
37.73
17.02
17.11
7.60
7.60
7.12
7.22
2.30
2.30
15.23
15.23
13.16
13.16
1.61
1.61
0.45
0.46

9.22
9.09
0.07
0.07
9.15
9.01
0.30
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.30
0.30
4.44
4.24
1.30
1.10
1.70
1.70
1.44
1.44

46.07
46.24
8.26
8.26
37.82
37.99
10.59
10.86
2.94
3.14
5.87
5.94
1.78
1.78
19.50
19.30
14.38
14.18
3.30
3.30
1.82
1.82

9.79
9.59
0.95
0.95
8.83
8.63
6.72
6.52
4.62
4.45
1.30
1.27
0.80
0.80
0.17
0.17
0.08
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.09

3.39
3.36
0.73
0.79
2.66
2.57
0.76
0.64
0.29
0.31
0.33
0.19
0.14
0.14
1.27
1.28
0.99
0.99
0.16
0.16
0.13
0.13

2014/15 Proj.
World 2/
United States
Total Foreign
Major Exporters 3/
Argentina
Brazil
European Union
Major Importers 4/
China
India
North Africa 5/

Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Sep

3.27
3.10
0.67
0.65
2.60
2.45
0.75
0.61
0.25
0.30
0.38
0.19
0.12
0.12
1.28
1.28
0.99
0.99
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15

1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports.
Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and European Union. 4/ China, India, and North Africa. 5/
Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia.

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 31
U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/
Year and Quarter

2013

2015

Pork Red Meat

2/

Broiler

Turkey

Total Red Meat

Poultry 3/ & Poultry

Egg

Milk
Bil lbs
49.4
49.3

6,609
6,423

5,622
6,274

12,298
12,764

Million Pounds
9,683
1,440
9,537
1,420

25,720

23,187

49,174

37,830

5,805

44,159

93,333

7,946

201.2

I
II

5,868
6,183

5,785
5,504

11,716
11,754

9,283
9,618

1,332
1,429

10,739
11,181

22,455
22,935

1,982
2,016

51.0
52.9

III*

6,135

5,440

11,635

9,850

1,465

11,460

23,095

2,045

51.1

IV*
Annual

6,135

6,045

12,241

9,700

1,500

11,330

23,571

2,100

51.2

Aug Proj.

24,561

22,779

47,596

38,399

5,711

44,638

92,234

8,145

206.0

Sep Proj.

24,321

22,774

47,346

38,451

5,726

44,710

92,056

8,143

206.3

5,510
6,060

5,670
5,465

11,243
11,584

9,510
9,950

1,400
1,475

11,035
11,565

22,278
23,149

2,035
2,065

52.8
54.4

Aug Proj.

24,325

23,280

47,852

39,345

5,925

45,815

93,667

8,260

212.5

Sep Proj.

23,640

23,325

47,206

39,480

5,925

45,950

93,156

8,300

212.5

III
IV
Annual

2014

Beef

I*
II*
Annual

11,265
11,080

23,563
23,844

Mil doz
1,994
2,038

* Projection.
1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys
and mature chicken.

U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products

Steers
2/

Barrows
and gilts
3/

Broilers
4/

Turkeys
5/

Eggs
6/

Milk
7/

Dol./cwt
122.30
130.77

Dol./cwt
70.59
61.11

Cents/lb.
93.9
92.8

Cents/lb.
99.9
105.4

Cents/doz.
119.0
143.0

Dol./cwt
19.60
21.50

Annual

125.89

64.05

99.7

99.8

124.7

20.05

I
II

146.34
147.82

68.69
85.40

98.4
113.7

100.7
105.6

142.7
134.6

24.53
24.23

III*

157-160

83-84

102-105

108-111

129-132

23.65-23.85

IV*
Annual

154-162

70-74

98-104

111-117

140-148

22.80-23.30

Aug Proj.

150-153

79-81

103-106

105-108

136-139

23.55-23.75

Sep Proj.

151-154

77-78

103-105

107-108

137-139

23.80-24.00

I*
II*
Annual

150-162
150-162

67-73
70-76

99-107
101-109

98-106
100-108

132-142
117-127

20.40-21.20
18.60-19.60

Aug Proj.

149-162

72-78

100-108

102-111

124-134

19.75-20.75

Sep Proj.

149-162

67-73

99-107

102-111

124-134

19.40-20.40

Year and Quarter

2013

2014

2015

III
IV

*Projection. 1/ Simple average of months. 2/ 5-Area, Direct, Total all grades 3/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean. 4/ Wholesale,
National Composite Weighted Average. 5/ 8-16 lbs, hens National. 6/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 7/ Prices received by
farmers for all milk.

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 32
U.S. Meats Supply and Use
Beginning Production
stocks
1/

Item

Beef

Pork

Total Red
Meat 5/

Broiler

Turkey

Total
Poultry 6/

Red Meat &

Poultry

Imports

Total
Supply

Exports

Ending
Stocks

Total Per Capita

Use
2/ 3/

2013

608

25,791

2,250

Million Pounds /4
28,649
2,590

584

25,475

56.3

2014 Proj. Aug

Sep
2015 Proj. Aug
Sep

584
584
510
510

24,632
24,392
24,396
23,711

2,584
2,684
2,600
2,700

27,800
27,660
27,506
26,921

2,620
2,620
2,525
2,525

510
510
510
510

24,670
24,530
24,471
23,886

54.2
53.9
53.4
52.1

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

2013

625

23,200

880

24,705

4,992

618

19,095

46.8

2014 Proj. Aug

Sep
2015 Proj. Aug
Sep

618
618
550
550

22,793
22,788
23,293
23,338

947
947
920
920

24,357
24,352
24,763
24,808

5,066
5,066
5,145
5,145

550
550
605
605

18,741
18,736
19,013
19,058

45.6
45.6
46.0
46.1

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

2013

1,260

49,270

3,302

53,832

7,589

1,230

45,013

104.4

2014 Proj. Aug

Sep
2015 Proj. Aug
Sep

1,230
1,230
1,093
1,097

47,691
47,441
47,947
47,301

3,704
3,804
3,686
3,786

52,624
52,474
52,726
52,184

7,694
7,694
7,679
7,679

1,093
1,097
1,148
1,148

43,837
43,683
43,899
43,357

101.0
100.6
100.4
99.3

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

2013

651

37,425

122

38,199

7,345

669

30,184

81.9

2014 Proj. Aug

Sep
2015 Proj. Aug
Sep

669
669
605
605

37,988
38,040
38,924
39,058

119
119
116
116

38,776
38,827
39,645
39,779

7,219
7,219
7,315
7,365

605
605
645
645

30,951
31,003
31,685
31,769

83.4
83.5
84.8
85.0

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

2013

296

5,729

22

6,047

759

237

5,051

16.0

2014 Proj. Aug

Sep
2015 Proj. Aug
Sep

237
237
225
225

5,711
5,726
5,925
5,925

23
28
20
28

5,972
5,991
6,170
6,178

737
767
750
780

225
225
310
310

5,010
4,999
5,110
5,088

15.7
15.7
15.9
15.8

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

2013

949

43,677

146

44,772

8,213

912

35,647

99.2

2014 Proj. Aug

Sep
2015 Proj. Aug
Sep

912
912
834
834

44,227
44,298
45,393
45,527

143
148
138
146

45,282
45,358
46,365
46,507

8,067
8,097
8,190
8,270

834
834
959
959

36,381
36,427
37,216
37,278

100.4
100.6
102.0
102.2

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

Filler

2013

2,208

92,947

3,449

98,604

15,802

2,142

80,660

203.5

2014 Proj. Aug

Sep
2015 Proj. Aug
Sep

2,142
2,142
1,927
1,931

91,917
91,739
93,341
92,828

3,847
3,951
3,824
3,932

97,906
97,832
99,092
98,691

15,761
15,791
15,869
15,949

1,927
1,931
2,107
2,107

80,218
80,110
81,116
80,635

201.4
201.2
202.5
201.4

1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less
condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis for red meat and broilers; certified ready-to-cook weight for turkey. 3/ Population
source: Dept. of Commerce, Census Bureau. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/
Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys, and mature chicken.

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 33
U.S. Egg Supply and Use
2012

2013

Commodity
Eggs
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Total Supply
Use
Exports
Hatching Use
Ending Stocks
Disappearance
Total
Per Capita (number)

2014 Proj.

2014 Proj.

2015 Proj.

2015 Proj.

Aug

Sep

Aug

Sep

Million Dozen
27.7
7,867.7
18.5
7,913.8

20.8
7,945.6
16.9
7,983.3

23.0
8,144.5
24.8
8,192.3

23.0
8,143.0
28.8
8,194.8

22.0
8,260.0
20.0
8,302.0

22.0
8,300.0
32.0
8,354.0

301.7
940.8
20.8

371.9
959.9
23.0

338.4
973.7
22.0

348.4
973.7
22.0

320.0
1,000.0
23.0

320.0
1,000.0
23.0

6,650.6
253.9

6,628.5
251.3

6,858.2
258.2

6,850.7
257.9

6,959.0
260.1

7,011.0
262.1

2014 Proj.

2014 Proj.

2015 Proj.

2015 Proj.

Aug

Sep

Aug

Sep

Total

U.S. Milk Supply and Use

2012

2013

Commodity
Milk
Production
Farm Use

Billion Pounds
200.6
1.0

201.2
1.0

206.0
1.0

206.3
1.0

212.5
1.0

212.5
1.0

10.9
199.7
4.1
214.7

12.2
200.2
3.7
216.2

11.2
205.0
3.7
219.9

11.2
205.3
4.1
220.6

10.9
211.6
3.6
226.1

10.5
211.5
3.8
225.8

8.8
12.2
0.0
193.7

12.4
11.2
0.0
192.6

12.8
10.9
0.0
196.2

12.6
10.5
0.0
197.5

11.8
12.0
0.0
202.3

11.5
12.0
0.0
202.4

11.8
199.7
5.7
217.2

12.4
200.2
5.3
217.9

11.6
205.0
5.2
221.9

11.6
205.3
5.3
222.2

12.0
211.6
5.1
228.7

12.0
211.5
5.2
228.7

33.3
12.4
0.0
171.5

38.5
11.6
0.0
167.7

40.6
12.0
0.0
169.3

39.8
12.0
0.0
170.4

39.0
12.4
0.0
177.3

38.5
12.6
0.0
177.6

Fat Basis Supply

Beg. Commercial Stocks
Marketings
Imports
Total Cml. Supply
Fat Basis Use
Commercial Exports
Ending Commercial Stocks
CCC Donations
Domestic Commercial Use
Skim-solid Basis Supply
Beg. Commercial Stocks
Marketings
Imports
Total Cml. Supply
Skim-solid Basis Use
Commercial Exports
Ending Commercial Stocks
CCC Donations
Domestic Commercial Use
Total

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 34
U.S. Dairy Prices
Commodity

2012

2013

Product Prices 1/
Cheese

1.7076

1.7683

Butter

1.5943

1.5451

Nonfat Dry Milk

1.3279

1.7066

Dry Whey

0.5935

0.5902

2014 Proj.

2014 Proj.

2015 Proj.

2015 Proj.

Aug

Sep

Aug

Sep

2.1352.155
2.1702.210
1.7751.795
0.6400.660

1.6701.770
1.6551.785
1.6051.675
0.5650.595

1.6901.790
1.6751.805
1.5651.635
0.5600.590

22.1522.35
22.3022.60
23.8024.00

17.0018.00
18.7019.80
19.7520.75

17.2018.20
18.4519.55
19.4020.40

Dollars Per Pound

2.0502.070
2.0402.080
1.8451.865
0.6400.660

Filler

Dollars Per Cwt

Milk Prices 2/
Class III

17.44

17.99

Class IV

16.01

19.05

All Milk 3/

18.52

20.05

21.2521.45
22.3522.65
23.5523.75

1/ Simple average of monthly prices calculated by AMS from weekly average dairy product prices for class price computations.
2/ Annual Class III and Class IV prices are the simple averages of monthly minimum Federal order milk prices paid by regulated
plants for milk used in the respective classes. All milk price is the simple average of monthly prices received by farmers for milk
at average test. 3/ Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation.

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 35
Note: Tables on pages 35-37 present a record of the September projection and the final Estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, the "root
mean square error" means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.1 percent.
Chances are 9 out of 10 (90% confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.5 percent. The average difference between the September
projection and the final estimate is 9.2 million tons, ranging from 0.9 million to 30.7 million tons. The September projection has been below the estimate
21 times and above 12 times.

Reliability of September Projections 1/

Commodity and
Region
WHEAT

Root mean
square error

90 percent
confidence
interval

Percent

Differences between forecast and final estimate

Years
Below
Above
Largest
Final
Final
Average
Smallest
Million Metric Tons

Production
World
U.S.
Foreign
Exports

2.1
1.9
2.4

3.5
3.1
4.0

9.2
0.9
9.2

0.9
0.0
1.0

30.7
2.5
30.9

21
14
22

12
19
11

World
U.S.
Foreign
Domestic Use

6.0
10.4
7.4

10.1
17.6
12.6

6.0
2.6
5.5

0.3
0.2
0.2

22.0
10.0
21.4

25
16
24

8
17
9

World
U.S.
Foreign
Ending Stocks

1.7
7.0
1.7

3.0
11.9
3.0

7.4
1.9
7.4

0.2
0.0
0.2

23.4
4.5
21.0

19
12
23

14
21
10

8.5
15.0
9.4

14.4
25.4
16.0

9.5
2.7
8.5

1.5
0.5
0.5

29.6
12.4
27.1

25
17
24

8
16
9

2.1
4.5
2.3

3.6
7.6
3.9

15.8
8.1
13.1

0.2
0.2
1.0

50.6
26.0
29.6

26
22
25

7
11
8

World
U.S.
Foreign
Domestic Use

6.9
20.6
14.0

11.8
34.9
23.7

6.3
7.6
6.9

0.1
0.4
0.7

25.2
19.1
19.3

23
13
22

10
20
11

World
U.S.
Foreign
Ending Stocks

1.5
3.9
1.6

2.5
6.7
2.7

10.5
6.7
8.7

0.4
0.1
0.4

29.1
15.8
22.0

19
22
21

14
11
12

12.9
24.6
15.1

21.9
41.7
25.6

16.4
8.9
12.1

1.7
0.4
0.7

43.2
32.2
41.6

25
14
27

8
19
6

2.4
4.6
2.5

4.1
7.8
4.2

6.6
0.2
6.6

0.4
0.0
0.3

24.1
0.5
24.4

26
18
26

7
14
7

World
U.S.
Foreign
Domestic Use

9.6
11.5
10.7

16.2
19.5
18.2

1.6
0.2
1.5

0.1
0.0
0.1

6.8
0.9
6.8

24
17
24

9
14
9

World
U.S.
Foreign
Ending Stocks

1.9
7.0
1.9

3.2
11.9
3.2

4.2
0.2
4.3

0.4
0.0
0.2

22.7
0.4
23.1

26
15
26

7
17
7

World
U.S.
Foreign

12.4
23.4
13.7

21.0
39.7
23.2

5.0
0.2
5.0

0.5
0.0
0.2

14.9
0.9
14.7

28
18
28

5
15
5

World
U.S.
Foreign
COARSE GRAINS 2/
Production
World
U.S.
Foreign
Exports

World
U.S.
Foreign
RICE, milled
Production
World
U.S.
Foreign
Exports

1/ Footnotes at end of table.

CONTINUED

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 36
Reliability of September Projections (Continued)
Differences between forecast and final estimate
Commodity and
Region
SOYBEANS
Production
World
U.S.
Foreign
Exports
World
U.S.
Foreign
Domestic Use
World
U.S.
Foreign
Ending Stocks
World
U.S.
Foreign
COTTON

90 percent
confidence
interval

Average

4.8
5.4
7.9

8.1
9.2
13.4

6.6
3.2
6.4

0.4
0.8
0.9

7.6
12.6
18.9

12.9
21.4
32.1

3.1
2.7
2.7

3.5
4.6
4.3

5.9
7.8
7.3

4.4
1.6
4.3

18.3
34.6
20.6

31.0
58.8
35.0

Root mean
square error
Percent

Years
Below
Final

Above
Final

27.4
10.4
29.1

21
19
16

12
14
17

0.2
0.1
0.0

12.5
7.3
10.5

21
20
12

12
13
21

0.0
0.1
0.0

15.1
4.5
11.2

21
21
21

12
12
12

4.6
0.2
13.0
2.0
0.2
6.6
4.4
0.0
14.7
Million 480-Pound Bales

20
10
21

13
23
11

Largest
Smallest
Million Metric Tons

Production
World
4.5
7.7
3.0
0.1
12.6
20
U.S.
6.3
10.7
0.9
0.0
2.4
18
Foreign
5.2
8.7
2.7
0.0
11.2
21
Exports
World
9.7
16.5
2.3
0.0
10.1
19
U.S.
21.8
36.9
1.1
0.1
3.2
18
Foreign
12.8
21.7
1.9
0.1
8.8
17
Domestic Use
World
4.0
6.8
2.9
0.1
13.1
13
U.S.
8.5
14.4
0.4
0.0
1.3
17
Foreign
4.1
7.0
2.8
0.0
12.3
14
Ending Stocks
World
15.1
25.7
5.5
0.3
15.9
23
U.S.
34.8
59.1
1.4
0.1
5.1
14
Foreign
15.6
26.4
4.9
0.2
16.0
23
1/ Marketing years 1981/82 through 2013/14 for grains, soybeans, and cotton. Final for grains, soybeans, and cotton is
defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year for 1981/82 through 2012/13, and for 2013/14 last
months estimate. 2/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain.

13
14
12
14
15
16
20
14
18
10
19
10

September 2014
WASDE - 533 - 37
Reliability of United States September Projections 1/
Differences between forecast and final estimate

CORN

Root mean
square error
Percent

90 percent
confidence
interval

Average
Smallest
Million Bushels

Largest

Years
Below
Above
Final
Final

Production
Exports
Domestic Use
Ending Stocks
SORGHUM

4.7
21.5
4.3
28.1

8.0
36.4
7.3
47.6

304
272
265
332

15
46
15
2

885
725
565
1,321

22
12
22
14

11
21
11
19

Production
Exports
Domestic Use
Ending Stocks
BARLEY

6.5
26.8
12.3
49.1

11.0
45.5
20.9
83.3

26
36
35
35

0
1
0
1

81
115
114
155

14
18
16
10

18
15
15
23

Production
Exports
Domestic Use
Ending Stocks
OATS

4.9
50.4
9.6
17.8

8.3
85.5
16.3
30.2

12
14
24
19

1
0
0
0

36
82
72
70

12
14
12
16

21
16
19
16

8.9
104.7
5.5
23.7

15.1
177.7
9.4
40.2

44
8
39
47

5
9
11
17

27
14
22
16

Production
Exports
Domestic Use
Ending Stocks
SOYBEAN OIL

4.5
15.3
3.8
42.6

7.6
26.0
6.4
72.4

4,200
4,100
3,200
368

22
18
20
11

11
15
13
13

Production
Exports
Domestic Use
Ending Stocks

4.8
36.3
4.3
32.1

8.2
61.6
7.3
54.5

2,635
1,675
2,150
1,357

20
17
21
18

13
15
12
15

2,486
1,356
1,379
444

23
19
20
21

9
13
12
11

414

21

11

7.2

20

12

Production
Exports
Domestic Use
Ending Stocks
SOYBEAN MEAL

ANIMAL PROD. 3/

12
0
1
0
14
1
16
2
Thousand Short Tons
1,293
93
940
34
770
26
55
0
Million Pounds
635
453
467
456

26
0
86
60

Million Pounds

Beef
Pork
Broilers
Turkeys

4.3
3.1
2.2
3.8

7.3
5.2
3.7
6.5

Eggs

1.7

2.9

873
175
399
19
532
49
141
2
Million Dozen
93

Billion Pounds
Milk

1.8

3.0

2.1

0.1

1/ See pages 35 and 36 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. Marketing years 1981/82
through 2013/14 for grains, soybeans, and cotton. Final for grains, soybeans, and cotton is defined as the first November
estimate following the marketing year for 1981/82 through 2012/13, and for 2013/14 last months estimate. Calendar
years 1983 through 2013 for meats, eggs, and milk. Final for animal products is defined as the latest annual production
estimate published by NASS for 1983-2013.

WASDE-533-38

Related USDA Reports

The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and
other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports
issued by USDAs Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. For more information on
how the WASDE report is prepared, go to: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde.

Supply and Demand Database

The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive
database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at
http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/online. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for
other commodities are updated less frequently.

Foreign Production Assessments

Preliminary foreign production assessments and satellite imagery analysis used to prepare the WASDE
report are provided by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD) of the Foreign
Agricultural Service. PECAD is located at www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/.

Metric Conversion Factors

1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres
1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds
Metric-Ton Equivalent

= Domestic Unit

Factor

Wheat & Soybeans

Rice
Corn, Sorghum, & Rye
Barley
Oats
Sugar
Cotton

bushels
cwt
bushels
bushels
bushels
short tons
480-lb bales

.027216
.045359
.025401
.021772
.014515
.907185
.217720

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

WORLD AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK BOARD
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20250-3812
___________________
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Penalty for Private Use, $300

FIRST-CLASS MAIL
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USDA
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World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

WASDE-533 September 11, 2014

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