2024 - USDA - World Agricultural Supply
2024 - USDA - World Agricultural Supply
ISSN: 1554-9089
and Demand Estimates
Office of the Agricultural Marketing Service Economic Research Service
Chief Economist Farm Service Agency Foreign Agricultural Service
WASDE - 645 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board February 8, 2024
WHEAT: The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat is for stable supplies, lower domestic use,
unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Food use is reduced 10 million bushels to
960 million, on lower wheat flour grind as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products
report released on February 1. The reduction is the result of the October-December
quarter, which was the lowest flour grind on record for this quarter as reported in Flour
Milling Products. Wheat exports are unchanged at 725 million bushels with offsetting by-
class changes for Hard Red Spring and Hard Red Winter. Projected ending stocks are
raised 10 million bushels to 658 million. The 2023/24 season-average farm price forecast
is unchanged at $7.20 per bushel.
The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for increased supplies, consumption, and trade
but lower ending stocks. Supplies are raised 0.5 million tons to 1,057.0 million, primarily
on higher production for Iraq and Argentina. Global consumption is raised 1.1 million tons
to 797.5 million, mainly on larger Food, Seed, and Industrial (FSI) use in India, where the
government is continuing to sell reserves to address price inflation. World trade is raised
1.2 million tons to 210.7 million with higher exports by Ukraine, Argentina, Australia, and
Turkey that more than offset reduced exports from the United Kingdom and Brazil.
Projected 2023/24 ending stocks are lowered 0.7 million tons to 259.4 million, the lowest
level since 2015/16, on decreases for India, China, and Ukraine.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for lower food, seed, and
industrial use and larger ending stocks. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is reduced
10 million bushels based on indicated usage to date. With no other use changes, U.S.
corn ending stocks are up 10 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn
price received by producers is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast 3.8 million tons lower to 1,510.1
million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, virtually
unchanged consumption, and lower ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn
production is down, with reductions for Brazil, Mexico, and Serbia partially offset by
increases for India and Turkey. For Brazil, production is cut based on lower expected
area.
Major global trade changes for 2023/24 include higher projected corn exports for Ukraine
and Pakistan with reductions for Brazil, India, and Serbia. For 2022/23, Argentina’s
exports for the marketing year beginning in March 2023 are raised based on observed
shipments to date, while Brazil is lowered. Corn imports for 2023/24 are cut for
Bangladesh and the EU. Barley exports are raised for Australia and Ukraine but lowered
for Canada. Foreign corn ending stocks are down relative to last month, reflecting
WASDE-645-2
reductions for Ukraine, Brazil, India, the EU, Mexico, and Paraguay. Global corn ending
stocks, at 322.1 million tons, are down 3.2 million.
RICE: The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. rice this month is for slightly higher supplies,
unchanged domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Total supplies are
increased, all on higher imports. All rice imports are raised 1.0 million cwt to a record 43.0
million with all of the increase in long-grain on the strong pace of Thai jasmine rice
imports to date. All rice exports are raised 2.0 million cwt to 87.0 million with all of the
increase in long-grain on an improved pace of sales and shipments to Western
Hemisphere countries. Projected ending stocks are reduced 1.0 million cwt to 42.5 million
but are still 40 percent higher than last year. The season-average price for all rice is
unchanged at $18.40 per cwt.
The 2023/24 global outlook this month is for higher supplies and consumption, modestly
higher trade, and nearly unchanged ending stocks. Supplies are raised 0.7 million tons to
690.1 million, largely on higher beginning stocks for Indonesia and Vietnam. Supplies
also are higher on increased production for Sri Lanka as the country recovers from two
years of lower output. World 2023/24 consumption is raised 0.8 million tons to a record
522.9 million, led by increases for Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and the Philippines. Global
2023/24 trade is raised 0.1 million tons to 51.6 million on higher exports for Pakistan and
the United States. Projected world ending stocks are fractionally lowered 0.1 million tons
to 167.2 million on several largely offsetting changes, most notably a reduction in China
and an increase for Indonesia.
OILSEEDS: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. soybean outlook is for lower soybean exports
and higher ending stocks. Soybean exports are forecast at 1.72 billion bushels, down 35
million from last month, reflecting the slow pace of shipments through January and strong
competition with Brazil. With crush unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 315 million
bushels, up 35 million.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.65 per bushel,
down $0.10 from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast unchanged at $380 per
short ton. The soybean oil price is forecast at 51 cents per pound, down 3 cents.
Global 2023/24 soybean supply and demand forecasts include higher beginning stocks,
lower production, lower exports, and higher ending stocks compared to last month.
Beginning stocks are raised 1.7 million tons mainly on a higher 2022/23 crop for Brazil.
Brazil’s 2022/23 production is raised 2.0 million tons to 162.0 million on a higher area and
yield, and reflects nearly finalized crush and export data through the end of the crop year.
Brazil’s 2023/24 crop is reduced 1.0 million tons to 156.0 million as higher harvested area
is offset by a lower yield on adverse weather conditions in southern Mato Grosso and
Parana.
Global soybean exports for 2023/24 are reduced 0.4 million tons to 170.6 million on lower
shipments for the United States. Partly offsetting are higher exports for Brazil on a strong
year-to-date (October-January) pace. Imports are reduced for Vietnam. Global soybean
ending stocks are increased 1.4 million tons to 116.0 million on higher stocks for the
United States and Brazil.
WASDE-645-3
SUGAR: Mexico production for 2023/24 is projected at 4.875 million metric tons (MT), a
decrease of 141,000 from last month and also 349,248 lower than last year. The
sugarcane harvest in Mexico continues to lag at levels unprecedented in recent times. All
relevant production parameters (yields and recovery) through February 2 are several
standard deviations below 10-year averages with no improvement being seen as time
advances. Late unseasonal rainfall has been present in all regions except the drought-
plagued Northeast slowing the pace of the campaign. Interim analysis based on the latest
CONADESUCA data implies a full-season national sugarcane yield of 62.6 metric tons
(MT)/hectare and an extremely low sucrose recovery of 10.03 percent. Applying these
rates to area harvested estimated by CONADESUCA at 776,408 hectares produces the
current WASDE projection.
The production of low polarity sugar for export to the United States is projected at 10.5
percent of total production (the same rate estimated by CONADESUCA). Assuming that
all of this sugar is exported to the U.S. market and like last year constitutes 75 percent of
the total exported, exports to the United States are projected at 683,752 MT. Exports to
other countries are unchanged at 25,000 MT and total exports at 708,752 MT are down
105,328 from last month. Deliveries and ending stocks are unchanged and imports are
residually projected at 546,538 MT, up 35,672 over last month.
U.S. sugar supply for 2023/24 is decreased by 23,392 short tons, raw value (STRV) on
lower beet sugar production only partially offset by increases in cane sugar production
and imports. Adoption of beet sugar processors’ estimates of beet pile shrink published in
the February Sweetener Market Data (SMD) reduces production by 79,297 STRV to
5.327 million. Louisiana cane sugar production for the fiscal year is increased 31,500 to
1.935 million on industry reporting and Florida cane sugar production is increased 7,943
STRV on processors’ reporting in the SMD. Imports are increased by 16,462 STRV on a
140,000 STRV increase in high-tier tariff imports more than offsetting the decline in
imports from Mexico. High-tier tariff imports are increased on the pace-to-date. Based on
both U.S. Census and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data, USDA estimates high
duty raw sugar imports entered as of February 5 at 232,566 STRV raising the full year
projection to 475,000. High-tier tariff refined imports are increased to 240,000 STRV
based on a monthly larger pace for October through January than originally projected.
Deliveries for human consumption are reduced by 75,000 STRV to 12.450 million on the
pace to date. With the change in use greater than the reduction in supply, ending stocks
increase by 51,608 STRV to 1.805 million for a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.2 percent, up
from 13.7 percent last month.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Red meat, poultry, and egg supply and use
estimates for 2023 are adjusted to reflect December production, ending stock, and trade
data.
For 2024, the beef production forecast is raised from last month. Slaughter is lowered for
the first half, reflecting a slower pace of cattle slaughter. For the second half, steer and
heifer slaughter is raised as USDA’s January Cattle report implied a smaller decline in
cattle outside feedlots than previously expected and to the extent these cattle are placed
on feed in the first half, they will likely be marketed and slaughtered in the second half.
WASDE-645-4
Carcass weights for the second half are also raised. Pork production is lowered on a
slower pace of slaughter. Broiler production is raised for the first quarter on expectations
of heavier bird weights. Turkey production is lowered as the sector continues to adjust to
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza discoveries in 2023 and early 2024 as well as
relatively weak demand. Egg production is reduced slightly on recent layer flock data.
Beef imports for 2024 are raised for the year on firm demand for imported beef and larger
supplies of beef, largely in Oceania. The beef export forecast is unchanged. The pork
export forecast is raised on the pace of exports in late 2023 and expectations of
continued firm demand in a number of key markets. Broiler exports are reduced on higher
U.S. prices and weaker import demand, but lower turkey prices are expected to support
gains in turkey exports in early 2024.
For 2024, cattle prices are raised on expected strength in first-half demand for fed cattle
in the face of tightening feedlot numbers. Hog prices are raised on lower pork production
and steady demand. First-half broiler prices are projected higher on current prices.
Turkey prices are lowered on recent prices and continued weak demand. Egg prices are
raised on recent prices and expectations of relatively firm demand strength post-Easter.
Milk supply and use estimates for 2023 are adjusted to reflect December domestic and
trade data.
For 2024, milk production is lowered due to lower expected output per cow, which is
partly offset by higher cow inventories. On a fat basis, domestic use is raised as a more
rapid pace of disappearance during the fourth quarter of 2023 carries over into 2024. Fat
basis exports are raised, based on higher expected butter and cheese exports, as the
United States is expected to be competitive on the international market for those
products. Fat basis imports are lowered. Skim-solids basis domestic use is also raised
based on higher-than-expected disappearance in fourth-quarter 2023. Skim-solids basis
exports are lowered to reflect the strength of domestic prices as domestic demand is
stronger.
Cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey prices for 2024 are all raised based on
recent price strength, tighter supplies of milk, and stronger domestic use. Class III and
Class IV prices in 2024 are also raised based on higher product prices. The all milk price
estimate for 2023 is reduced to $20.48 per cwt based on reported data through
December. The all milk price forecast for 2024 is raised to $20.95 per cwt.
COTTON: The 2023/24 U.S. cotton balance sheet has lower ending stocks relative to
last month, with higher exports and lower mill use, while production is unchanged. The
export forecast is raised 200,000 bales to 12.3 million based on a strong pace of
shipments and sales to date. Similarly, projected mill use is reduced 150,000 bales as
U.S. domestic spinning activity remains low. Ending stocks are now estimated at 2.8
million bales, equivalent to 20 percent of total disappearance. The upland cotton
marketing year average price received by producers is projected at 77 cents per pound, 1
cent higher than in January.
WASDE-645-5
World 2023/24 cotton ending stocks are nearly 700,000 bales lower this month, as lower
beginning stocks and production reduce supplies. World consumption is virtually
unchanged as increases in China and Vietnam are offset by lower consumption in Turkey,
the United States, and Thailand. Beginning stocks are 250,000 bales lower than in
January largely due to a downward revision in Argentina’s 2022/23 cotton crop. Projected
2023/24 world cotton production is 355,000 bales lower this month, with cuts in Australia
and Benin partly offset by smaller increases elsewhere. World trade is nearly 200,000
bales lower as a 500,000-bale increase in China’s imports is more than offset by
reductions for India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Turkey. Exports are higher for the United
States, Burkina Faso, and Turkey, and lower for Brazil, Argentina, and Australia.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and by the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees.
APPROVED BY:
ALEXIS M. TAYLOR
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE DESIGNATE
WASDE-645-6
Note: The World Agricultural Outlook Board reviews and approves the World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The Board’s analysts chair the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees (ICECs) that prepare the monthly report.
In 2024 the WASDE report will be released on Mar 8, Apr 11, May 10,
Jun 12, Jul 12, Aug 12, Sep 12, Oct 11, Nov 8, and Dec 10.
WASDE-645-7
T A B L E OF C O N T E N T S
Page
Highlights............................................................................................................. 1
Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees .................................................... 6
World & U.S. Supply & Use for Grains .................................................................. 8
World & U.S. Supply & Use for Cotton .................................................................. 9
World & U.S. Supply & Use for Oilseeds ............................................................ 10
U.S. Wheat Supply & Use .................................................................................. 11
U.S. Wheat Supply & Use by Class .................................................................... 11
U.S. Feed Grain & Corn Supply & Use ............................................................... 12
U.S. Sorghum, Barley & Oats Supply & Use ....................................................... 13
U.S. Rice Supply & Use ..................................................................................... 14
U.S. Soybeans & Products Supply & Use ........................................................... 15
U.S. Sugar Supply & Use ................................................................................... 16
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use ........................................................................... 16
U.S. Cotton Supply & Use .................................................................................. 17
World Wheat Supply & Use ................................................................................ 18
World Coarse Grains Supply & Use.................................................................... 20
World Corn Supply & Use .................................................................................. 22
World Rice Supply & Use ................................................................................... 24
World Cotton Supply & Use ................................................................................ 26
World Soybean Supply & Use ............................................................................ 28
World Soybean Meal Supply & Use .................................................................... 29
World Soybean Oil Supply & Use ....................................................................... 30
U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production .......................................................... 31
U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products .......................................................... 31
U.S. Meats Supply and Use ............................................................................... 32
U.S. Egg Supply & Use ...................................................................................... 33
U.S. Milk Supply and Use .................................................................................. 33
U.S. Dairy Prices ............................................................................................... 34
Reliability Tables................................................................................................ 35
Related USDA Reports ...................................................................................... 38
Metric Conversion Factors ................................................................................. 38
Electronic Access and Subscriptions ...................................................................... 40
February 2024
WASDE - 645 - 8
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of
export/import imbalances. 3/ Total use for the United States is equal to domestic consumption only (excludes exports). 4/
Wheat, coarse grains, and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet
and mixed grains).
February 2024
WASDE - 645 - 9
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of
export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains, and milled rice.
5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains.
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Includes mill use only. 4/ Total Foreign is equal to
world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances.
February 2024
WASDE - 645 - 10
Foreign 3/ Output
Total
Supply Trade
Total
Use 2/
Ending
Stocks
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total
Foreign is equal to World minus United States.
February 2024
WASDE - 645 - 11
Million Acres
Area Planted 92.9 88.2 94.6 94.6
Area Harvested 85.0 78.7 86.5 86.5
Bushels
Yield per Harvested Acre 176.7 173.4 177.3 177.3
Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks 1,235 1,377 1,360 1,360
Production 15,018 13,651 15,342 15,342
Imports 24 39 25 25
Supply, Total 16,277 15,066 16,727 16,727
Feed and Residual 5,671 5,487 5,675 5,675
Food, Seed & Industrial 2/ 6,757 6,558 6,790 6,780
Ethanol & by-products 3/ 5,320 5,176 5,375 5,375
Domestic, Total 12,427 12,045 12,465 12,455
Exports 2,472 1,661 2,100 2,100
Use, Total 14,900 13,706 14,565 14,555
Ending Stocks 1,377 1,360 2,162 2,172
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 4/ 6.00 6.54 4.80 4.80
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for
barley and oats. 2/ For a breakout of FSI corn uses, see Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the
Feed Grains Database at www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database.aspx. 3/ Corn processed in ethanol plants to
produce ethanol and by-products including distillers' grains, corn gluten feed, corn gluten meal, and corn oil. 4/ Marketing-
year weighted average price received by farmers.
February 2024
WASDE - 645 - 13
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum; June 1 for barley and
oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers.
February 2024
WASDE - 645 - 14
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not
included in estimates of ending stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2019/20-1.0; 2020/21-2.5;2021/22-2.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and
estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and
milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice
produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice
are estimated. 9/ The California medium/short-grain season-average- farm price (SAFP) largely reflects rice that is marketed through price pools in California. The
pool price is not final until all the rice in the pool is marketed for the crop year. Therefore, SAFP forecasts based on the average of NASS monthly prices and the final
price may differ. 10/ Marketing year beginning October 1. * For June--Planted acres reported in March 31, 2023, "Prospective Plantings." Harvested acres are
estimated using long run harvested-to-planted ratios by rice class. For July--Planted and harvested area are reported in June 30, 2023 "Acreage" report. Projected yield
is based on by-class trend analysis and planted area.
February 2024
WASDE - 645 - 15
Million Acres
Area Planted 87.2 87.5 83.6 83.6
Area Harvested 86.3 86.2 82.4 82.4
Filler
Bushels
Yield per Harvested Acre 51.7 49.6 50.6 50.6
Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks 257 274 264 264
Production 4,464 4,270 4,165 4,165
Imports 16 25 30 30
Supply, Total 4,737 4,569 4,459 4,459
Crushings 2,204 2,212 2,300 2,300
Exports 2,152 1,992 1,755 1,720
Seed 102 97 101 102
Residual 5 4 23 22
Use, Total 4,463 4,305 4,179 4,144
Ending Stocks 274 264 280 315
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/ 13.30 14.20 12.75 12.65
Total
Million Pounds
Beginning Stocks 2,131 1,991 1,602 1,602
Production 4/ 26,155 26,227 27,025 27,025
Imports 303 376 450 450
Supply, Total 28,589 28,594 29,077 29,077
Domestic Disappearance 24,827 26,614 27,200 27,200
Biofuel 3/ 10,379 12,491 13,000 13,000
Food, Feed & other Industrial 14,449 14,123 14,200 14,200
Exports 1,771 378 300 300
Use, Total 26,598 26,992 27,500 27,500
Ending stocks 1,991 1,602 1,577 1,577
Avg. Price (c/lb) 2/ 72.98 65.26 54.00 51.00
Total
Filler 1 2 3 4
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for
soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and soybean meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers;
oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; meal, simple average of 48 percent protein, Decatur. 3/ Reflects soybean oil used for
biofuels as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4/ Based on an October year crush of 2,219 million bushels for
2022/23 and 2,300 million bushels for 2023/24.
February 2024
WASDE - 645 - 16
1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Data and projections correspond to category components from "Sweetener Market Data"
(SMD). 2/ Production projections for 2022/23 and 2023/24 are based on Crop Production and/or processor
projections/industry data and/or sugar ICEC analysis where appropriate. 3/ For 2022/23, WTO raw sugar TRQ shortfall
(161) and for 2023/24 (92). 4/ Composed of sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 5/ Transfers
accompanying deliveries for sugar-containing products to be exported (SCP) and polyhydric alcohol manufacture (POLY),
and deliveries for livestock feed and ethanol. Total refiner license transfers for SCP and POLY inclusive of WASDE-
reported deliveries: 2021/22 -- 303; estimated 2022/23 -- 304; projected 2023/24 -- 291
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
Beginning Ending
Stocks Production Imports Domestic 2/ Exports Stocks
Pounds
Yield per Harvested Acre 820 953 845 845
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 3.15 4.05 4.25 4.25
Production 17.52 14.47 12.43 12.43
Imports 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 20.68 18.52 16.69 16.69
Domestic Use 2.55 2.05 1.90 1.75
Exports, Total 14.48 12.77 12.10 12.30
Use, Total 17.03 14.82 14.00 14.05
Unaccounted 2/ -0.40 -0.55 -0.21 -0.16
Ending Stocks 4.05 4.25 2.90 2.80
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 91.4 84.8 76.0 77.0
Total
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals
may not add due to rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending
stocks. 3/ Cents per pound for upland cotton.
February 2024
WASDE - 645 - 18
Total Foreign Jan 78.97 100.75 43.05 110.53 30.95 -0.20 81.48
Feb 78.72 100.39 42.87 110.71 30.57 -0.20 80.90
Major Exporters 4/ Jan 30.14 57.73 2.04 32.82 26.52 -0.20 30.78
Feb 29.89 57.45 1.74 32.82 26.07 -0.20 30.39
Central Asia 5/ Jan 3.46 5.18 0.08 3.99 1.38 0.00 3.35
Feb 3.44 5.18 0.08 3.99 1.38 0.00 3.34
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ Jan 1.19 4.92 3/ 0.10 4.58 0.00 1.43
Feb 1.19 4.93 3/ 0.10 4.63 0.00 1.39
S. Hemis. 7/ Jan 13.32 22.16 0.17 4.36 18.64 -0.20 12.84
Feb 13.08 21.86 0.17 4.36 18.14 -0.20 12.81
Australia Jan 4.77 5.10 3/ 0.01 5.75 -0.20 4.31
Feb 4.77 4.80 3/ 0.01 5.65 -0.20 4.11
filler filler filler filler filler filler filler
2023/24 Proj.
World 2/ Jan 101.87 398.98 168.35 329.40 383.66 170.94 114.60
Feb 103.57 398.21 167.85 329.29 383.03 170.57 116.03
World Less China Jan 68.08 378.14 66.35 231.40 263.16 170.84 78.57
Feb 69.78 377.37 65.85 231.29 262.53 170.47 80.00
United States Jan 7.19 113.34 0.82 62.60 65.97 47.76 7.62
Feb 7.19 113.34 0.82 62.60 65.97 46.81 8.57
Total Foreign Jan 94.68 285.63 167.53 266.80 317.69 123.18 106.98
Feb 96.38 284.87 167.03 266.70 317.06 123.76 107.46
Major Exporters 3/ Jan 52.82 220.20 6.58 92.85 104.14 112.80 62.67
Feb 54.78 219.20 6.58 92.85 104.14 113.30 63.12
Argentina Jan 17.21 50.00 6.10 35.50 42.75 4.60 25.96
Feb 17.21 50.00 6.10 35.50 42.75 4.60 25.96
Brazil Jan 35.35 157.00 0.45 53.75 57.50 99.50 35.80
Feb 37.35 156.00 0.45 53.75 57.50 100.00 36.30
Paraguay Jan 0.21 10.30 0.02 3.50 3.65 6.30 0.58
Feb 0.17 10.30 0.02 3.50 3.65 6.30 0.54
Major Importers 4/ Jan 36.23 24.76 135.84 127.23 157.69 0.42 38.73
Feb 36.08 24.76 135.34 126.63 157.04 0.42 38.72
China Jan 33.79 20.84 102.00 98.00 120.50 0.10 36.03
Feb 33.79 20.84 102.00 98.00 120.50 0.10 36.03
European Union Jan 1.32 3.06 13.80 15.00 16.59 0.30 1.29
Feb 1.22 3.06 13.80 14.90 16.49 0.30 1.29
Southeast Asia 5/ Jan 0.73 0.47 10.14 5.13 10.36 0.02 0.96
Feb 0.67 0.47 9.64 4.63 9.81 0.02 0.95
Mexico Jan 0.22 0.14 6.40 6.48 6.54 0.00 0.22
Feb 0.22 0.14 6.40 6.48 6.54 0.00 0.22
1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports
and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports.
Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Includes Uruguay 4/ Includes Japan 5/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam,
and Thailand. Totals may not add due to rounding.
February 2024
WASDE - 645 - 29
2023/24 Proj.
World 2/ Jan 13.70 258.59 66.70 253.73 69.84 15.42
Feb 13.64 258.52 66.77 253.72 70.05 15.15
World Less China Jan 12.82 180.98 66.65 176.98 68.84 14.62
Feb 12.76 180.90 66.72 176.97 69.05 14.36
United States Jan 0.34 49.13 0.54 35.77 13.88 0.36
Feb 0.34 49.13 0.54 35.77 13.88 0.36
Total Foreign Jan 13.36 209.46 66.15 217.97 55.96 15.05
Feb 13.30 209.39 66.22 217.96 56.17 14.79
Major Exporters 3/ Jan 5.92 77.35 0.07 31.15 45.90 6.29
Feb 5.92 77.75 0.07 31.33 46.10 6.31
Argentina Jan 2.36 27.69 0.01 3.48 24.40 2.19
Feb 2.36 27.69 0.01 3.48 24.40 2.19
Brazil Jan 3.39 41.66 0.01 20.70 20.50 3.86
Feb 3.39 41.66 0.01 20.70 20.50 3.86
India Jan 0.17 8.00 0.05 6.98 1.00 0.25
Feb 0.17 8.40 0.05 7.16 1.20 0.27
Major Importers 4/ Jan 1.73 22.95 37.85 59.20 1.01 2.32
Feb 1.57 22.48 37.95 58.99 1.01 2.00
European Union Jan 0.45 11.85 15.80 26.89 0.70 0.51
Feb 0.44 11.77 15.80 26.84 0.70 0.46
Mexico Jan 0.15 5.12 2.05 7.13 0.00 0.19
Feb 0.15 5.12 2.05 7.13 0.00 0.19
Southeast Asia 5/ Jan 1.09 4.00 18.40 21.63 0.31 1.56
Feb 0.94 3.61 18.50 21.46 0.31 1.29
China Jan 0.88 77.62 0.05 76.75 1.00 0.79
Feb 0.88 77.62 0.05 76.75 1.00 0.79
1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports.
Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Includes Japan. 5/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,
Vietnam, and Thailand. Totals may not add due to rounding.
February 2024
WASDE - 645 - 30
2023/24 Proj.
World 2/ Jan 4.96 61.91 10.77 60.78 11.53 5.34
Feb 4.94 61.89 10.75 60.72 11.52 5.34
World Less China Jan 4.04 44.35 10.37 43.08 11.33 4.36
Feb 4.02 44.33 10.35 43.02 11.32 4.35
United States Jan 0.73 12.26 0.20 12.34 0.14 0.72
Feb 0.73 12.26 0.20 12.34 0.14 0.72
Total Foreign Jan 4.23 49.65 10.57 48.44 11.39 4.63
Feb 4.21 49.63 10.54 48.39 11.38 4.62
Major Exporters 3/ Jan 1.31 20.88 0.43 13.25 8.10 1.26
Feb 1.32 20.86 0.43 13.25 8.10 1.25
Argentina Jan 0.33 7.01 0.00 2.25 4.75 0.34
Feb 0.33 7.01 0.00 2.25 4.75 0.34
Brazil Jan 0.30 10.35 0.03 8.43 1.85 0.40
Feb 0.30 10.35 0.03 8.43 1.85 0.40
European Union Jan 0.62 2.85 0.40 2.51 0.90 0.46
Feb 0.61 2.83 0.40 2.51 0.90 0.44
Major Importers 4/ Jan 1.77 20.70 5.87 26.13 0.28 1.93
Feb 1.77 20.79 5.87 26.18 0.28 1.97
China Jan 0.92 17.56 0.40 17.70 0.20 0.98
Feb 0.92 17.56 0.40 17.70 0.20 0.98
India Jan 0.60 1.80 3.30 5.10 0.02 0.58
Feb 0.60 1.89 3.30 5.15 0.02 0.62
North Africa 5/ Jan 0.24 1.01 1.44 2.34 0.05 0.30
Feb 0.24 1.01 1.44 2.34 0.05 0.30
1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports.
Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Includes Paraguay 4/ Includes Bangladesh 5/ Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and
Tunisia. Totals may not add due to rounding.
February 2024
WASDE - 645 - 31
Year and Quarter Beef Pork Red Meat Broiler Turkey Total Red Meat Egg Milk
2/ Poultry 3/ & Poultry
Million Pounds Mil doz Bil lbs
2022 Annual 28,291 26,996 55,471 46,206 5,222 51,997 107,469 9,074 226.4
2023 I 6,821 7,071 13,937 11,549 1,348 13,039 26,976 2,209 56.9
II 6,710 6,593 13,348 11,545 1,410 13,105 26,453 2,287 58.1
III 6,621 6,488 13,151 11,679 1,354 13,183 26,334 2,327 56.1
IV 6,812 7,149 14,006 11,610 1,342 13,089 27,095 2,363 55.6
Annual
Jan Est. 26,967 27,302 54,447 46,423 5,462 52,467 106,914 9,189 226.6
Feb Est. 26,963 27,301 54,442 46,383 5,455 52,416 106,858 9,187 226.6
2024 I* 6,720 7,130 13,895 11,550 1,310 13,000 26,895 2,270 57.2
II* 6,540 6,625 13,210 11,675 1,325 13,145 26,355 2,300 58.2
III* 6,495 6,765 13,305 11,850 1,360 13,355 26,660 2,345 56.6
IV* 6,430 7,360 13,837 11,700 1,400 13,240 27,077 2,390 56.2
Annual
Jan Proj. 26,110 27,970 54,262 46,675 5,470 52,710 106,972 9,325 228.3
Feb Proj. 26,185 27,880 54,246 46,775 5,395 52,740 106,986 9,305 228.2
* Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/
Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken.
Pork 2022 446 27,011 1,344 28,800 6,345 504 21,951 51.1
2023 Est. Jan 504 27,317 1,169 28,990 6,769 450 21,772 50.4
Feb 504 27,316 1,143 28,963 6,818 471 21,674 50.2
2024 Proj. Jan 450 27,985 1,215 29,650 6,870 450 22,330 51.4
Feb 471Filler
27,895
Filler
1,195Filler
29,561
Filler
7,080Filler
475Filler
22,006
Filler
50.7
Filler
Total Red 2022 1,147 55,564 5,092 61,804 9,895 1,256 50,653 111.6
Meat 5/ 2023 Est. Jan 1,256 54,540 5,163 60,959 9,789 1,109 50,062 109.7
Feb 1,256 54,535 5,154 60,945 9,861 1,136 49,948 109.5
2024 Proj. Jan 1,109 54,355 5,310 60,773 9,661 1,077 50,036 109.2
Feb 1,136Filler
54,339
Filler
5,625Filler
61,100
Filler
9,870Filler
1,116
Filler
50,114
Filler
109.3
Filler
Broiler 2022 705 45,711 176 46,593 7,290 892 38,411 98.9
2023 Est. Jan 892 45,926 130 46,948 7,255 850 38,844 99.5
Feb 892 45,886 131 46,910 7,265 845 38,800 99.4
2024 Proj. Jan 850 46,176 180 47,206 7,275 860 39,071 99.6
Feb 845Filler
46,275
Filler
215Filler
47,334
Filler
7,215Filler
860Filler
39,259
Filler
100.1
Filler
Total 2022 874 51,502 268 52,645 7,716 1,087 43,841 115.2
Poultry 6/ 2023 Est. Jan 1,087 51,970 177 53,234 7,765 1,052 44,417 116.1
Feb 1,087 51,920 178 53,185 7,774 1,096 44,315 115.9
2024 Proj. Jan 1,052 52,210 250 53,512 7,793 1,061 44,658 116.1
Feb 1,096Filler
52,239
Filler
285Filler
53,620
Filler
7,748Filler
1,061
Filler
44,811
Filler
116.6
Filler
Red Meat & 2022 2,021 107,067 5,361 114,449 17,611 2,343 94,494 226.8
Poultry 2023 Est. Jan 2,343 106,510 5,340 114,193 17,554 2,161 94,479 225.8
Feb 2,343 106,455 5,332 114,130 17,635 2,232 94,263 225.3
2024 Proj. Jan 2,161 106,565 5,560 114,285 17,454 2,138 94,694 225.3
Feb 2,232 106,578 5,910 114,720 17,618 2,177 94,925 225.9
1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less
condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis for red meat and broilers; certified ready-to-cook weight for turkey. 3/
Population source: Dept. of Commerce. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/
Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken.
February 2024
WASDE - 645 - 33
2021 2022 2023 Est. 2023 Est. 2024 Proj. 2024 Proj.
Commodity
Jan Feb Jan Feb
Eggs Million Dozen
Supply
Beginning Stocks 24.5 19.1 18.8 18.8 23.0 23.1
Production 9,297.9 9,073.8 9,188.8 9,186.5 9,325.0 9,305.0
Imports 18.2 26.0 27.7 27.6 26.0 26.0
Total Supply 9,340.6 9,118.9 9,235.2 9,232.8 9,374.0 9,354.1
Use
Exports 392.1 226.5 246.0 250.4 241.0 241.0
Hatching Use 1,103.9 1,116.4 1,106.7 1,111.8 1,120.0 1,125.0
Ending Stocks 19.1 18.8 23.0 23.1 22.0 22.0
Disappearance
Total 7,825.4 7,757.2 7,859.6 7,847.6 7,991.0 7,966.1
Per Capita (number) 282.5 279.0 281.3 280.9 284.4 283.7
Total
2021 2022 2023 Est. 2023 Est. 2024 Proj. 2024 Proj.
Commodity
Jan Feb Jan Feb
Milk Billion Pounds
Production 226.2 226.4 226.6 226.6 228.3 228.2
Farm Use 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Fat Basis Supply
Beginning Stocks 15.6 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.4 13.8
Marketings 225.2 225.4 225.6 225.6 227.3 227.2
Imports 6.5 7.1 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.4
Total Supply 247.4 246.8 247.5 247.3 249.2 248.3
Fat Basis Use
Exports 11.5 13.4 10.6 10.6 11.6 11.7
Ending Stocks 14.3 14.4 14.4 13.8 14.0 12.0
Domestic Use 221.5 219.1 222.5 223.0 223.7 224.7
Skim-solid Basis Supply
Beginning Stocks 10.9 11.1 11.7 11.7 10.6 9.9
Marketings 225.2 225.4 225.6 225.6 227.3 227.2
Imports 5.8 6.7 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4
Total Supply 241.9 243.2 243.6 243.5 244.3 243.5
Skim-solid Basis Use
Exports 50.6 52.9 50.0 49.9 53.2 51.9
Ending Stocks 11.1 11.7 10.6 9.9 10.8 9.5
Domestic Use 180.1 178.7 183.0 183.7 180.3 182.0
Total
2021 2022 2023 Est. 2023 Est. 2024 Proj. 2024 Proj.
Commodity
Jan Feb Jan Feb
Product Prices 1/ Dollars Per Pound
Cheese 1.6755 2.1122 1.7593 1.7593 1.620 1.690
Butter 1.7325 2.8665 2.6170 2.6170 2.665 2.770
Nonfat Dry Milk 1.2693 1.6851 1.1856 1.1856 1.190 1.235
Dry Whey
Filler
0.5744 0.6057 0.3618 0.3618 0.430 0.480
Dollars Per Cwt
Milk Prices 2/
Class III 17.08 21.96 17.02 17.02 16.10 17.10
Class IV 16.09 24.47 19.12 19.12 19.35 20.20
All Milk 3/ 18.53 25.34 20.60 20.48 20.00 20.95
All prices are January-December averages. 1/ Simple average of monthly prices calculated by AMS from weekly average
dairy product prices for class price computations. 2/ Annual Class III and Class IV prices are the simple averages of monthly
minimum Federal order milk prices paid by regulated plants for milk used in the respective classes. All milk price is the
simple average of monthly prices received by farmers for milk at average test. 3/ Does not reflect any deductions from
producers as authorized by legislation.
February 2024
WASDE - 645 - 35
The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and
other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports
issued by USDA’s Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. For more information on
how the WASDE report is prepared, go to: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde.
The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive
database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated
monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently.
Preliminary foreign production assessments and satellite imagery analysis used to prepare the WASDE
report are provided by the International Production Assessment Division (IPAD) of the Foreign Agricultural
Service. IPAD is located at https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/.
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programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program
information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA’s TARGET Center at 202-
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