PROBLEM SOLVING

Mathematics Assessment Project

CLASSROOM CHALLENGES
A Formative Assessment Lesson

Modeling
Conditional
Probabilities 1:
Lucky Dip

Mathematics Assessment Resource Service

University of Nottingham & UC Berkeley
Beta Version
For more details, visit: http://map.mathshell.org
2012 MARS, Shell Center, University of Nottingham
May be reproduced, unmodified, for non-commercial purposes under the Creative Commons license
detailed at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ - all other rights reserved

Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1: Lucky Dip

MATHEMATICAL GOALS
This lesson unit is intended to help you assess how well students are able to:

Understand conditional probability.

Represent events as a subset of a sample space using tables and tree diagrams.

Communicate their reasoning clearly.

COMMON CORE STATE STANDARDS

This lesson relates to the following Mathematical Practices in the Common Core State Standards for
Mathematics:
1.
Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them.
2.
Reason abstractly and quantitatively.
3.
Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others.
4.
Model with mathematics.
This lesson gives students the opportunity to apply their knowledge of the following Standards for
Mathematical Content in the CCSS:
S-CP: Understand independence and conditional probability and use them to interpret data.
S-MD: Calculate expected values and use them to solve problems.

INTRODUCTION
This lesson unit is structured in the following way:

Before the lesson, students work individually on an assessment task that is designed to reveal
their current understanding and difficulties. You then review their work and create questions for
students to answer in order to improve their solutions.

At the start of the lesson, students work alone answering your questions about the same problem.
Students are then grouped and engage in a collaborative discussion of the same task.

In the same small groups, students are given sample solutions to analyze and evaluate.

Finally, in a whole-class discussion, students explain and compare the alternative solution
strategies they have seen and used.

Finally, students review what they have learnt.

MATERIALS REQUIRED

Each student will need a copy of the assessment task, Lucky Dip, a copy of the review sheet, How
did you work?, a mini-whiteboard, a pen, and an eraser.

Each small group of students will need a large sheet of paper for making a poster, a felt-tipped
pen, and enlarged copies of the Student Sample Responses.

There are some projector resources to support whole class discussion.

You will need a bag, and some black and white balls (or some substitute) for a class
demonstration.

TIME NEEDED
20 minutes before the lesson, a 1- hour lesson, and 10 minutes in a subsequent lesson. Exact timings
will depend on the needs of the class.
Teacher guide

Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1

T-1

BEFORE THE LESSON

Assessment task: Lucky Dip task (20 minutes)
Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1: Lucky Dip
Student Materials
Beta Version February 2012
Set this task, in class or for
Lucky Dip
homework, a few days before the
Dominic has devised a simple game.
Inside a bag he places 3 black and 3 white balls. He then shakes the bag.
formative assessment lesson. This
He asks Amy to take two balls from the bag without looking.
will give you an opportunity to
Dominic
assess the work, and to find out the
!"#$%&#$'(#)*++,#*-&#
674#
$%&#,*.&#/(+(-#$%&0#
kinds of difficulties students have
8%*$#,(205,#"*3-#$(#.&4
1(2#'304
with it You will then be able to
!"#$%&1#*-&#53""&-&0$#
Amy
/(+(-,#$%&0#!#'304
target your help more effectively in
the follow-up lesson.
Is Amy right? Is the game fair?

Give each student a copy of the

assessment task Lucky Dip.

If Amy is wrong, then who is most likely to win?

Show all your reasoning clearly.

Make sure the class understands the rules of the game by demonstrating it using a bag, and some
black and white balls.
Read through the questions and try to answer them as carefully as you can.
It is important that students, as far as possible, are allowed to answer the questions without your
assistance.
Students should not worry too much if they cannot understand or do everything, because in the next
lesson they will engage in a similar task, which should help them. Explain to students that by the end
of the next lesson, they should expect to answer questions such as these confidently. This is their
goal.
Students who sit together often produce similar answers, and then when they come to compare their
work, they have little to discuss. For this reason, we suggest that when students do the task
individually, you ask them to move to different
seats.of Nottingham
Then at the beginning of the formative S-1
2012 MARS University
assessment lesson, allow them to return to their usual seats. Experience has shown that this produces
more profitable discussions.
Assessing students responses
Collect students responses to the task. Make some notes on what their work reveals about their
current levels of understanding and their different problem solving approaches.
We suggest that you do not score students work. The research shows that this will be
counterproductive, as it will encourage students to compare their scores, and will distract their
attention from what they can do to improve their mathematics.
Instead, help students to make further progress by summarizing their difficulties as a series of
questions. Some suggestions for these are given on the next page. These have been drawn from
common difficulties observed in trials of this unit.
We recommend that you write a selection of questions on each students work. If you do not have
time, select a few questions that will be of help to the majority of students. These can be written on
the board at the beginning of the lesson.

Teacher guide

Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1

T-2

Common issues

Suggested questions and prompts

Student produces no work.

Play the game twenty times, using pieces of

marked paper instead of balls. Do you think
the game is fair? Explain your answer.

Student assumes the game is fair.

Suppose you labeled each ball with a different

letter. What are the different combinations you
can take out of the bag?

For example: The student assumes that there are

only two outcomes (the balls are the same color or
the balls are different colors), so the probabilities
are equal.
Student does not choose a suitable
representation.
For example: The student does not use a tree
diagram, or a sample space diagram.
Student is confused as to the nature of the
event.
For example: The student is concerned over
whether it makes a difference to consider taking
both balls out at once or taking them out one at a
time.
Student does not recognize dependent
probabilities.
The student appears to assume that each ball is
returned to the bag after it is selected.
For example: The probability that the second ball
is black is assumed to be independent of the
choice of the first ball. So P(both balls black) is
assumed to be 0.5 0.5.
Student selects the same ball twice in their
table of possible outcomes.

Can you think of a suitable diagram that will

show all the possible outcomes?
Can you use a sample space diagram?
Does it make a difference whether Amy picks
the balls one at a time, rather than at the same
time? Explain your answer.
How can you show the different possible
outcomes using a diagram?
Imagine picking a black ball from the bag.
What is the probability of picking a black ball?
What has changed? Now you are holding the
black ball, what is the probability of picking
another black ball?

Is it possible to select the same ball twice?

For example: The student assumes that there are

3 3 = 9 ways of obtaining two black balls.
Student presents incomplete or unclear work.
For example: The student does not fully label the
tree diagram or the sample space diagram.
Student correctly answers all the questions.
Student needs an extension task.

Teacher guide

Would someone unfamiliar with this type of

work understand all your work?

How many black balls and how many white

balls could you put in the bag to make the
game fair? Explain your answer.

Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1

T-3

SUGGESTED LESSON OUTLINE

Individual work (10 minutes)
Return the assessment task to the students. Give each student a mini-whiteboard, a pen, and an eraser.
Begin the lesson by briefly reintroducing the problem.
If you did not add questions to individual pieces of work, write your list of questions on the board.
Students are to select questions appropriate to their own work, and spend a few minutes answering
them. If students struggle to identify which questions they should be considering, it may be helpful to
give them a printed version of the list of questions and highlight the ones that you want them to focus
on.
Recall what we were looking at in a previous lesson. What was the task about?
Today we are going to work together to try to improve your initial attempts at this task.
I have had a look at your work, and I have some questions I would like you to think about.
On your own, carefully read through the questions I have written. Use the questions to help you
to think about ways of improving your own work.
Use your mini-whiteboards to make a note of anything you think will help to improve your work.
Slide P-1 of the projector resource outlines the rules of the game. To remind students of the rules, you
could demonstrate the game using a bag and some balls.
Lucky Dip
Dominic has devised a simple game.
Inside a bag he places 3 black and 3 white balls.
He then shakes the bag.
He asks Amy to take two balls from the bag without looking.

Is Amy right? Is the game fair?

If Amy is wrong, then who is most likely to win?
Show all your reasoning clearly.
Projector Resources

Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1

P-1

Collaborative small-group work (10 minutes)

Organize the class into small groups of two or three students. Give each group a large, piece of paper,
and a felt-tipped pen.
Deciding on a Strategy
Ask students to share their ideas about the task, and plan a joint solution.
I want you to share your work with your group.
Take turns to explain how you did the task and how you now think it could be improved.
Listen carefully to any explanation. Ask questions if you dont understand or agree with the
method. (You may want to use some of the questions I have written on the board.)
I want you to plan a joint approach that is better than your separate solutions.
Teacher guide

Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1

T-4

Once students have evaluated the relative merits of each approach ask them to write their strategy on
the second side of the poster.
Slide P-2 of the projector resource, Planning a Joint Solution, summarizes these instructions.

Planning a Joint Solution

1.

Take turns to explain how you did the task and how you now think it could
be improved.

2.

Listen carefully to explanations.

Ask questions if you dont understand.

3.

Discuss with your partners:

What you like/dislike about your partners math.

Any assumptions your partner has made.

How their work could be improved.

Once everyone in the group has explained their solution, plan a joint
approach that is better than each of the separate solutions.
On the second side of your poster or paper write a couple of
sentences outlining your plan.

Projector Resources

Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1

P-2

Implementing the Strategy

Students are now to write their joint solution on the front side of the poster.
While students work in small groups you have two tasks: to note different student approaches to the
task, and to support student problem solving
You can then use this information to focus a whole class discussion towards the end of the lesson. For
example, do students identify all the different possible events clearly? Are students using diagrams to
support their answers? In particular, note any common mistakes.
Try not to make suggestions that move students towards a particular approach to the task. Instead, ask
questions that help students to clarify their thinking. In particular focus on the strategies rather than
the solution. Encourage students to justify their statements.
Look for any groups of students who agree amongst themselves on an incorrect answer or
justification. You could ask these students to work with another group, to compare solutions and
prompt revision.
You may want to use the questions in the Common issues table to support your own questioning. If
the whole class is struggling on the same issue, you could write one or two relevant questions on the
board and hold a brief whole-class discussion. You could also give any struggling students one of the
sample responses.
Whole-class discussion (10 minutes)
You may want to hold a brief whole-class discussion. Have students solved the problem using a
variety of methods? Or have you noticed some interesting ways of working or some incorrect
methods, if so, you may want to focus the discussion on these. Equally, if you have noticed different
groups using similar strategies but making different assumptions you may want to compare solutions.
Collaborative analysis of Sample Student Responses (15 minutes)
After students have had enough time to attempt the problem, give each group copies of the three
Sample student responses, and ask for written comments. This task gives students the opportunity to
evaluate a variety of approaches to the task.
You are now going to look at three solutions to the task.
Teacher guide

Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1

T-5

Imagine you are the teacher. Write down your comments on each piece of work.
Try to explain what the student has done.
What mistakes have been made?
What isnt clear about the work?
Slide P-3 of the projector resource, Evaluating Sample Student Work, describes how students should
work together:

Evaluating Student Sample Responses

1.

Imagine you are the teacher and have to assess the student work.

2.

Take turns to work through a students solution.

- Write your answers on your mini-whiteboards.

3.

Explain your answer to the rest of the group.

4.

Listen carefully to explanations.

Ask questions if you don't understand.

5.

Once everyone is satisfied with the explanations, write the answers below
the students solution.
- Make sure the student who writes the answers is not the student who
explained them.

During the paired work, support the students as in the first collaborative activity.
Projector Resources

Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1

P-3

Note similarities and differences between the approaches seen in the Sample responses and those
students took in the small-group work. Also, check to see which methods students have difficulties in
understanding. This information can help you focus the next activity, a whole-class discussion.
Whole-class discussion: comparing different approaches (15 minutes)
Hold a whole-class discussion to consider the different approaches used in the sample work. Focus
the discussion on parts of the task students found difficult. Ask the students to compare the different
solution methods.
Which approach did you like best? Why?
Which approach did you find most difficult to understand? Why?
To support the discussion, you may want to use the projector resource to display the sample work.
Annas work appears intuitively correct.
She assumes that there are only two outcomes
(that the two balls are the same color or that they
are different colors), so that the probabilities are
equal.
Anna does not take into account the changes in
probabilities once a ball is removed from the bag
and not replaced.

Teacher guide

Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1

T-6

Ella draws a sample space in the form of an

organized table.
Ella clearly presents her work, however she makes
the mistake of including the diagonals. This means
the same ball is selected twice. This is not
possible, as the balls are not replaced.

Jordan uses a tree diagram to show the possible

outcomes when taking two balls from the bag.
Jordans work is difficult to follow. He does not
label the branches of the tree.
Jordan does not take into account that the first ball
is not replaced. When selecting the second ball
there are only 5 balls in the bag, so these
probability fractions should all have a denominator
of 5.
Where does the denominator of 6 come from?
What is the sum of all final probabilities?
What does this tell you about Jordans work?
[He has made a mistake.]
Review solutions to Lucky Dip (10 minutes)
Give out the sheet How Did You Work? and ask students to complete this questionnaire.
Some teachers set this task as homework.
The questionnaire should help students review their progress.
If you have time you may also want to ask your students to read through their original solution and
using what they have learned, attempt the task again. In this case, give each student a fresh blank
copy of the assessment Lucky Dip.

Teacher guide

Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1

T-7

SOLUTIONS
Lucky Dip
Amy is wrong: the game is not fair. In the sample space diagram below, the black balls are labeled B1,
B2, B3 and the white balls are labeled W1, W2, W3. Each cell shows one possible, equally likely
outcome. The diagonal doesnt show possible outcomes because the same ball cannot be taken out
twice.
Amy wins wherever there is a . Dominic wins wherever there is a x. This shows that the probability
12 2
18 3
of Amy winning is
= and the probability of Dominic winning is
= . An alternative
30 5
30 5
representation is the tree diagram.
#$!!%&'

First selection
B1

B2

B3

!
!
"

W1

W2

W3
!

Second
selection

B1

B2

B3

!
"

! " !
! "
" # #

#$!"%&'
!
"

! # #
! "
" $ !%

!
!
"

! # #
! "
" $ !%

!
" "

! " !
! "
" # #

"

#$"!%&'

W1

W2

W3

"

!
"

#$""%&'

Some students think of the event being modeled as picking two balls simultaneously. In that case, the
sample space diagram (with labels first selection, second selection) and the probability tree (which again
shows a sequence of events) may seem less appropriate. The student may therefore decide to not
distinguish between B1B2 and B2B1. The resulting sample space diagram will be just the upper (or lower)
half of the sample space diagram shown above. The resulting probabilities however will remain
unaffected.

Teacher guide

Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1

T-8

Lucky Dip
Dominic has devised a simple game.
Inside a bag he places 3 black and 3 white balls. He then shakes the bag.
He asks Amy to take two balls from the bag without looking.
Dominic
!"#$%&#$'(#)*++,#*-&#
$%&#,*.&#/(+(-#$%&0#
1(2#'304
!"#$%&1#*-&#53""&-&0$#
/(+(-,#$%&0#!#'304

674#
8%*$#,(205,#"*3-#$(#.&4

Amy

Is Amy right? Is the game fair?

If Amy is wrong, then who is most likely to win?
Show all your reasoning clearly.

Student Materials

Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1

2012 MARS, Shell Center, University of Nottingham

S-1

Student Sample Responses: Anna

Explain what the student has done.

What isnt clear about her work?

What mistakes has she made?

Student Materials

Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1

2012 MARS, Shell Center, University of Nottingham

S-2

Student Sample Responses: Ella

Explain what the student has done.

What isn't clear about her work?

What mistakes has she made?

Student Materials

Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1

2012 MARS, Shell Center, University of Nottingham

S-3

Student Sample Responses: Jordan

Explain what the student has done.

What isnt clear about his work?

What mistakes has he made?

Student Materials

Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1

2012 MARS, Shell Center, University of Nottingham

S-4

How Did You Work?

Mark the boxes and complete the sentences that apply to your work.
1.

Our group work was better than my own work

Our group solution was better because

2.

Our solution is similar to one of the sample responses

Our solution is similar to (add name of the student)
I prefer our solution

/ the students solution (circle)

because

OR
Our solution is different from all of the sample responses
Our solution is different from all of the sample responses because

3.

What advice would you give a student new to this task about potential pitfalls?

Student Materials

Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1

2012 MARS, Shell Center, University of Nottingham

S-5

Lucky Dip
Dominic has devised a simple game.
Inside a bag he places 3 black and 3 white balls.
He then shakes the bag.
He asks Amy to take two balls from the bag without looking.

Is Amy right? Is the game fair?

If Amy is wrong, then who is most likely to win?
Show all your reasoning clearly.
Projector Resources

Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1: Lucky Dip

P-1

Planning a Joint Solution

1.

Take turns to explain how you did the task and how you now think it could
be improved.

2.

Listen carefully to explanations.

Ask questions if you dont understand.

3.

Discuss with your partners:

What you like/dislike about your partners math.

Any assumptions your partner has made.

How their work could be improved.

Once everyone in the group has explained their solution, plan a joint
approach that is better than each of the separate solutions.
On the second side of your poster or paper write a couple of
sentences outlining your plan.

Projector Resources

Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1: Lucky Dip

P-2

Evaluating Student Sample Responses

1.

Imagine you are the teacher and have to assess the student work.

2.

Take turns to work through a students solution.

- Write your answers on your mini-whiteboards.

3.

Explain your answer to the rest of the group.

4.

Listen carefully to explanations.

Ask questions if you don't understand.

5.

Once everyone is satisfied with the explanations, write the answers below
the students solution.
- Make sure the student who writes the answers is not the student who
explained them.

Projector Resources

Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1: Lucky Dip

P-3

Annas Response

Projector Resources

Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1: Lucky Dip

P-4

Ellas Response

Projector Resources

Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1: Lucky Dip

P-5

Jordans Response

Projector Resources

Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1: Lucky Dip

P-6

Mathematics Assessment Project

CLASSROOM CHALLENGES

This lesson was designed and developed by the

Shell Center Team
at the
University of Nottingham
Malcolm Swan, Nichola Clarke, Clare Dawson, Sheila Evans
with
Hugh Burkhardt, Rita Crust, Andy Noyes, and Daniel Pead

It was refined on the basis of reports from teams of observers led by

David Foster, Mary Bouck, and Diane Schaefer
based on their observation of trials in US classrooms
along with comments from teachers and other users.

This project was conceived and directed for

MARS: Mathematics Assessment Resource Service
by
Alan Schoenfeld, Hugh Burkhardt, Daniel Pead, and Malcolm Swan
and based at the University of California, Berkeley

We are grateful to the many teachers, in the UK and the US, who trialed earlier versions
of these materials in their classrooms, to their students, and to
Judith Mills, Carol Hill, and Alvaro Villanueva who contributed to the design.
This development would not have been possible without the support of
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
We are particularly grateful to
Carina Wong, Melissa Chabran, and Jamie McKee
2012 MARS, Shell Center, University of Nottingham
This material may be reproduced and distributed, without modification, for non-commercial purposes,
under the Creative Commons License detailed at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/
All other rights reserved.
Please contact map.info@mathshell.org if this license does not meet your needs.