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Binomial Logistic Regression using

SPSS
Introduction
A binomial logistic regression (often referred to simply as logistic regression), predicts
the probability that an observation falls into one of two categories of a dichotomous
dependent variable based on one or more independent variables that can be either
continuous or categorical. If, on the other hand, your dependent variable is a count, see
our Poisson regression guide.
For example, you could use binomial logistic regression to understand whether exam
performance can be predicted based on revision time, test anxiety and lecture
attendance (i.e., where the dependent variable is "exam performance", measured on a
dichotomous scale "passed" or "failed" and you have three independent variables:
"revision time", "test anxiety" and "lecture attendance"). Alternately, you could use
binomial logistic regression to understand whether drug use can be predicted based on
prior criminal convictions, drug use amongst friends, income, age and gender (i.e.,
where the dependent variable is "drug use", measured on a dichotomous scale "yes"
or "no" and you have five independent variables: "prior criminal convictions", "drug
use amongst friends", "income", "age" and "gender").
This "quick start" guide shows you how to carry out binomial logistic regression using
SPSS, as well as interpret and report the results from this test. However, before we
introduce you to this procedure, you need to understand the different assumptions that
your data must meet in order for binomial logistic regression to give you a valid result.
We discuss these assumptions next.

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Assumptions

When you choose to analyse your data using binomial logistic regression, part of the
process involves checking to make sure that the data you want to analyse can actually
be analysed using a binomial logistic regression. You need to do this because it is only
appropriate to use a binomial logistic regression if your data "passes" seven
assumptions that are required for binomial logistic regression to give you a valid result.
In practice, checking for these seven assumptions just adds a little bit more time to your
analysis, requiring you to click a few more buttons in SPSS when performing your
analysis, as well as think a little bit more about your data, but it is not a difficult task.
Before we introduce you to some of these assumptions, do not be surprised if, when
analysing your own data using SPSS, one or more of these assumptions is violated
(i.e., not met). This is not uncommon when working with real-world data rather than
textbook examples, which often only show you how to carry out binomial logistic
regression when everything goes well! However, dont worry. Even when your data fails
certain assumptions, there is often a solution to overcome this. First, let's take a look at
some of these assumptions:

o Assumption #1: Your dependent variable should be

measured on a dichotomous scale. Examples
of dichotomous variables include gender (two groups:
"males" and "females"), presence of heart disease (two groups:
"yes" and "no"), personality type (two groups: "introversion" or
"extroversion"), body composition (two groups: "obese" or "not
obese"), and so forth. However, if your dependent variable was
not measured on a dichotomous scale, but a continuous scale
instead, you will need to carry out multiple regression, whereas
if your dependent variable was measured on
an ordinal scale, ordinal regression would be a more
appropriate starting point.
o Assumption #2: You have one or more independent
variables, which can be either continuous (i.e.,
an interval or ratio variable) orcategorical (i.e.,
an ordinal or nominal variable). Examples of continuous
variables include revision time (measured in hours),
intelligence (measured using IQ score), exam performance

(measured from 0 to 100), weight (measured in kg), and so

forth. Examples of ordinal variables include Likert items
(e.g., a 7-point scale from "strongly agree" through to "strongly
disagree"), amongst other ways of ranking categories (e.g., a
3-point scale explaining how much a customer liked a product,
ranging from "Not very much" to "Yes, a lot"). Examples
of nominal variables include gender (e.g., 2 groups: male
and female), ethnicity (e.g., 3 groups: Caucasian, African
American and Hispanic), profession (e.g., 5 groups: surgeon,
doctor, nurse, dentist, therapist), and so forth. You can learn
more about variables in our article: Types of Variable.
o Assumption #3: You should have independence of
observations and the dependent variable should
have mutually exclusive and exhaustive categories.
o Assumption #4: There needs to be a linear relationship
between any continuous independent variables and the
logit transformation of the dependent variable. In our
enhanced binomial logistic regression guide, we show you how
to: (a) use the Box-Tidwell (1962) procedure to test for
linearity; and (b) interpret the SPSS output from this test and
report the results.
You can check assumption #4 using SPSS. Assumptions #1, #2 and #3
should be checked first, before moving onto assumption #4. We suggest
testing these assumptions in this order because it represents an order where,
if a violation to the assumption is not correctable, you will no longer be able
to use a binomial logistic regression (although you may be able to run
another statistical test on your data instead). Just remember that if you do
not run the statistical tests on these assumptions correctly, the results you
get when running binomial logistic regression might not be valid. This is why
we dedicate a number of sections of our enhanced binomial logistic
regression guide to help you get this right. You can find out about our
enhanced content as a whole here, or more specifically, learn how we help
with testing assumptions here.

In the section, Test Procedure in SPSS, we illustrate the SPSS procedure to

perform a binomial logistic regression assuming that no assumptions have
been violated. First, we introduce the example that is used in this guide.

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Example
A health researcher wants to be able to predict whether the "incidence of
heart disease" can be predicted based on "age", "weight", "gender" and
"VO2max" (i.e., where VO2max refers to maximal aerobic capacity, an
indicator of fitness and health). To this end, the researcher recruited 100
participants to perform a maximum VO2max test as well as recording their
age, weight and gender. The participants were also evaluated for the
presence of heart disease. A binomial logistic regression was then run to
determine whether the presence of heart disease could be predicted from
their VO2max, age, weight and gender. Note: this example and data is
fictitious.

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Setup in SPSS
In this example, there are six variables: (1) heart_disease, which is whether
the participant has heart disease: "yes" or "no" (i.e., thedependent
variable); (2) VO2max, which is the maximal aerobic capacity; (3) age, which
is the participant's age; (4) weight, which is the participant's weight
(technically, it is their 'mass'); and (5) gender, which is the participant's
gender (i.e., the independent variables); and (6) caseno, which is the case
number.
Note: The caseno variable is used to make it easy for you to eliminate cases
(e.g., "significant outliers", "high leverage points" and "highly influential
points") that you have identified when checking for assumptions. It is not
used directly in calculations for a binomial logistic regression analysis.
In our enhanced binomial logistic regression guide, we show you how to
correctly enter data in SPSS to run a binomial logistic regression when you
are also checking for assumptions. You can learn about our enhanced data
setup content here. Alternately, we have a generic, "quick start" guide to
show you how to enter data into SPSS, available here.

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Test Procedure in SPSS

The 10 steps below show you how to analyse your data using a binomial
logistic regression in SPSS when none of the assumptions in the previous
section, Assumptions, have been violated. At the end of these 10 steps, we
show you how to interpret the results from your binomial logistic regression.
If you are looking for help to make sure your data meets these assumptions,
which are required when using a binomial logistic regression, and can be
tested using SPSS, you can learn more in our enhanced guide here.

Click Analyze > Regression > Binary Logistic... on the main menu,
as shown below:

Published with written permission from SPSS, IBM Corporation.

You will be presented with the Logistic Regression dialogue box, as shown
below:

Published with written permission from SPSS, IBM Corporation.

Transfer the dependent variable, heart_disease, into the Dependent: box,

and the independent variables, age, weight,gender and VO2max into
the Covariates: box, using the

buttons, as shown below:

Published with written permission from SPSS, IBM Corporation.

Note: For a standard logistic regression you should ignore

and
buttons because they are for sequential (hierarchical) logistic
regression. The Method: option needs to be kept at the default value, which
is

. If, for whatever reason,

is not

selected, you need to change Method: back to

. The
"Enter" method is the name given by SPSS to standard regression analysis.

Click the

button. You will be presented with the Logistic

Regression: Define Categorical Variables dialogue box, as shown below:

Published with written permission from SPSS, IBM Corporation.

Note: SPSS requires you to define all the categorical predictor values in the
logistic regression model. It does not do this automatically.

Transfer the independent, categorical variable, gender, from

the Covariates: box to the Categorical Covariates: box, as shown below:

Published with written permission from SPSS, IBM Corporation.

In the Change Contrast area, change the Reference Category: from

the Last option to the First option. Then, click the
below:

button, as shown

Published with written permission from SPSS, IBM Corporation.

Note: Whether you choose Last or First will depend on how you set up your
data. In this example, males are to be compared to females, with females
acting as the reference category (who were coded "0"). Therefore, First is
chosen.

Click the

button. You will be returned to the Logistic

Regression dialogue box.

Click the

button. You will be presented with the Logistic

Regression: Options dialogue box, as shown below:

Published with written permission from SPSS, IBM Corporation.

In the Statistics and Plots area, click the Classification plots, Hosmer-Lemeshow
goodness-of-fit, Casewise listing of residuals

andCI for exp(B): options, and in the

Display area, click the At last step option. You will end up with a screen similar to
the one below:

Published with written permission from SPSS, IBM Corporation.

Click the

button. You will be returned to the Logistic

Regression dialogue box.

Click the

button. This will generate the output.

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Interpreting and Reporting the Output of a Binomial Logistic

Regression Analysis
SPSS generates many tables of output when carrying out binomial logistic
regression. In this section, we show you only the three main tables required

to understand your results from the binomial logistic regression procedure,

assuming that no assumptions have been violated. A complete explanation
of the output you have to interpret when checking your data for the
assumptions required to carry out binomial logistic regression is provided in
our enhanced guide.
However, in this "quick start" guide, we focus only on the three main tables
you need to understand your binomial logistic regression results, assuming
that your data has already met the assumptions required for binomial logistic
regression to give you a valid result:
Variance explained
In order to understand how much variation in the dependent variable can be
explained by the model (the equivalent of R2 in multiple regression), you can
consult the table below, "Model Summary":

This table contains the Cox & Snell R Square and Nagelkerke R
Square values, which are both methods of calculating the explained
variation. These values are sometimes referred to as pseudo R2 values (and
will have lower values than in multiple regression). However, they are
interpreted in the same manner, but with more caution. Therefore, the
explained variation in the dependent variable based on our model ranges
from 24.0% to 33.0%, depending on whether you reference the Cox &
Snell R2 or Nagelkerke R2 methods, respectively. Nagelkerke R2 is a
modification of Cox & Snell R2, the latter of which cannot achieve a value of
1. For this reason, it is preferable to report the Nagelkerke R2 value.
Category prediction

Binomial logistic regression estimates the probability of an event (in this

case, having heart disease) occurring. If the estimated probability of the
event occurring is greater than or equal to 0.5 (better than even chance),
SPSS classifies the event as occurring (e.g., heart disease being present). If
the probability is less than 0.5, SPSS classifies the event as not occurring
(e.g., no heart disease). It is very common to use binomial logistic regression
to predict whether cases can be correctly classified (i.e., predicted) from the
independent variables. Therefore, it becomes necessary to have a method to
assess the effectiveness of the predicted classification against the actual
classification. There are many methods to assess this with their usefulness
oftening depending on the nature of the study conducted. However, all
methods revolve around the observed and predicted classifications, which
are presented in the "Classification Table", as shown below:

Firstly, notice that the table has a subscript which states, "The cut value is .
500". This means that if the probability of a case being classified into the
"yes" category is greater than .500, then that particular case is classified into
the "yes" category. Otherwise, the case is classified as in the "no" category
(as mentioned previously). Whilst the classification table appears to be very
simple, it actually provides a lot of important information about your
binomial logistic regression result, including:

o A. The percentage accuracy in classification (PAC), which

reflects the percentage of cases that can be correctly classified
as "no" heart disease with the independent variables added
(not just the overall model).

o B. Sensitivity, which is the percentage of cases that had the

observed characteristic (e.g., "yes" for heart disease) which
were correctly predicted by the model (i.e., true positives).
o C. Specificity, which is the percentage of cases that did not
have the observed characteristic (e.g., "no" for heart disease)
and were also correctly predicted as not having the observed
characteristic (i.e., true negatives).
o D. The positive predictive value, which is the percentage of
correctly predicted cases "with" the observed characteristic
compared to the total number of cases predicted as having the
characteristic.
o E. The negative predictive value, which is the percentage of
correctly predicted cases "without" the observed characteristic
compared to the total number of cases predicted as not having
the characteristic.
If you are unsure how to interpret the PAC, sensitivity, specificity, positive
predictive value and negative predictive value from the "Classification
Table", we explain how in our enhanced binomial logistic regression guide.
Variables in the equation
The "Variables in the Equation" table shows the contribution of each
independent variable to the model and its statistical significance. This table
is shown below:

The Wald test ("Wald" column) is used to determine statistical significance

for each of the independent variables. The statistical significance of the test
is found in the "Sig." column. From these results you can see that age (p = .
003), gender (p = .021) and VO2max (p = .039) added significantly to the
model/prediction, but weight (p = .799) did not add significantly to the model.
You can use the information in the "Variables in the Equation" table to
predict the probability of an event occurring based on a one unit change in
an independent variable when all other independent variables are kept
constant. For example, the table shows that the odds of having heart disease
("yes" category) is 7.026 times greater for males as opposed to females. If
you are unsure how to use odds ratios to make predictions, learn about our
enhanced guides here.
Putting it all together
Based on the results above, we could report the results of the study as
follows (N.B., this does not include the results from your assumptions tests):

General

A logistic regression was performed to ascertain the effects of age, weight, gender and
VO2max on the likelihood that participants have heart disease. The logistic regression
model was statistically significant, 2(4) = 27.402, p < .0005. The model explained
33.0% (Nagelkerke R2) of the variance in heart disease and correctly classified 71.0% of
cases. Males were 7.02 times more likely to exhibit heart disease than females.
Increasing age was associated with an increased likelihood of exhibiting heart disease,
but increasing VO2max was associated with a reduction in the likelihood of exhibiting
heart disease.
In addition to the write-up above, you should also include: (a) the results
from the assumptions tests that you have carried out; (b) the results from
the "Classification Table", including sensitivity, specificity, positive
predictive value and negative predictive value; and (c) the results from the
"Variables in the Equation" table, including which of the predictor
variables were statistically significant and what predictions can be made
based on the use of odds ratios. If you are unsure how to do this, we show
you in our enhanced binomial logistic regression guide. We also show you

how to write up the results from your assumptions tests and binomial logistic
regression output if you need to report this in a dissertation/thesis,
assignment or research report. We do this using the Harvard and APA styles.
You can learn more about our enhanced content here.

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