Ex Estimation
Ex Estimation
Ex Estimation
CHAPTER 9
One- and Two-Sample Estimation Problems
4/252) An electrical firm manufactures light bulbs that have a
length of life that is approximately normally distributed with a
standard deviation of 40 hours. If a sample of 30 bulbs has an
average life of 780 hours, find a 96% confidence interval for the
population mean of all bulbs produced by this firm.
Soln:
Given: n = 30, = 40 hours,x = 780 hours
96% confidence interval
From Table A.3, z/2 = z.02 = 2.05
__
__
x - z/2 /n < < x + z/2 /n
__
__
780 2.05(40)/30 < < 780 + 2.05(40)/30
765 < < 795
6/252) The heights of a random sample of 50 college students
showed a mean of 174.5 centimeters and a standard deviation of
6.9 centimeters.
a) Construct a 98% confidence interval for the mean height of all
college students.
b) What can we assert with 98% confidence about the possible size
of our error if we estimate the mean height of all college
students to be 174.5 centimeters?
Soln:
Given: n = 50, = 6.9 cm,x = 174.5 cm
a) 98% confidence interval
From Table A.3, z/2 = z.01 = 2.33
__
__
x - z/2 /n < < x + z/2 /n
__
__
174.5 2.33(6.9)/50 < < 174.5 + 2.33(6.9)/50
172.23 < < 176.77
ENGSTAT Notes of AM Fillone
__
b) Error 2.33(6.9)/50
2.27 cm
8/253) How large a sample is needed in Exercise 4 if we wish to be
96% confident that our sample mean will be within 10 hours of the
true mean?
Soln:
Given: z/2 = 2.05, = 40 hours, e = 10 hours
n = (z/2 / e)2
n = (2.05(40) / 10)2
n 68 samples
10/253) An efficiency expert wishes to determine the average time
that it takes to drill three holes in a certain metal clamp. How large
a sample will he need to be 95% confident that his sample mean
will be within 15 seconds of the true mean? Assume that it is
known from previous studies that = 40 seconds.
Soln:
Given: z/2 = z.025 = 1.96, = 40 seconds, e = 15 seconds
n = (z/2 / e)2
n = (1.96(40) / 15)2
n 28 samples
x = xi / n = 3.787
i=1
15
________________
(87.278.3)+1.96(5.6)2/50 + (6.3)2/50,
6.56 < B - A < 11.24
Sample 2
n2 = 200
x2 = 9.1 ml
2 = 0.9 ml
___________
(x1-x2) + z/221/n1 + 22/n2,
__________________
(12.29.1)2.33 (1.1)2/100 + (0.9)2/200 < 1-2 <
__________________
( 12.29.1)+2.33(1.1)2/100+(0.9)2/200
2.804 < 1-2 < 3.396
Toyota
n2 = 10
x2 = 11 km/l
s2 = 0.8 km/l
________
(16 - 11) + 1.725(0.915)1/12+1/10,
University
4 5 6
41 44 29
38 50 33
-3 6 4
7
37
36
-1
8
31
40
9
9
38
43
5
Soln: __________________
n
n
2
n d i ( di )2
_______________
i=1
i=1
9(237)2 (25)2
sd = ------------------------- = -------------------- = 4.5765
n(n-1)
9(9-1)
d = (7 + 2 4 3 + 6 + 4 1 + 9 + 5)/9 = 2.78
@ 95% confidence interval
From Table A.4, = n 1 = 8, t/2 = t.025 = 2.306
_
_
d - t/2 (sd / n ) < D < d + t/2 (sd / n ),
__
__
2.78 2.306 (4.5765/9 ) < D < 2.78 + 2.306 (4.5765/9 )
-0.738 < D < 6.298
1/276) A manufacturer of car batteries claims that his batteries will last, on
average, 3 years with a variance of 1 year. If 5 of these batteries have
lifetimes of 1.9, 2.4, 3.0, 3.5, and 4.2 years, construct a 95% confidence
interval for 2 and decide if the manufacturers claim that 2 = 1 is valid.
Assume the population of battery lives to be approximately normally
distributed.
Soln:
(n 1)s2/ 2/2 < 2 < (n - 1)s2/ 21-/2,
n
n x i ( xi ) 2
i=1
i=1
5(48.26) (15)2
s2 = ------------------------------ = ------------------------ = 0.815
n (n-1)
5(5 1)
For a 95% confidence interval, = .05. From Table A.5 with v = 4 degrees
of freedom, we find 20.025 = 11.143 and 20.975 = 0.484.
4(0.815)/11.143 < 2 < 4(0.815)/0.484
0.293 < 2 < 6.736
Therefore, the claim is valid.
7/276) Construct a 98% confidence interval for 1/2 in Exercise 8 on page
264, where 1 and 2 are, respectively, the standard deviations for the
distances obtained per liter of fuel by the Volkswagen and Toyota
minitrucks.
Soln:
Given: Volkswagen,
s1 = 1
n1 = 12
Toyota,
s2 = 0.8
n2 = 10
(s21/s22)(1/f/2(1, 2)) < 21/22 < (s21/s22)f/2(1, 2),
For a 98% confidence interval, = 0.02. Interpolating in Table A.6, we find
f0.01(11,9) = 5.185 and f0.01(9,11) = 4.63.
21
(1)2
(1)2 (4.63)
----------------- < -------- < ---------------22
(0.8)2
(0.8)2 (5.185)
0.549 < 1/2 < 2.690
3
2
1-
/2
-z/2
/2
0
z/2
Seatwork
XMQUAME
1. Molded-rubber expansion joints used in heating and air-conditioning systems are
manufactured to withstand high pressure. A rubber company has purchased new
machinery to produce joints with 5-inch internal diameters. For a random sample of
50 molded-rubber expansion joints, the mean internal diameter isx = 4.985 inches
and the standard deviation is equal to 0.03 inch. Estimate the mean internal diameter
of all expansion joints produced by the new machinery with a 95% confidence
interval.
2. Suppose a regional computer center wants to evaluate the performance of its disk
memory system. One measure of performance is the average time between failures of
a disk drive. Since the computer center operates two disk drives, it wants to estimate
(1 - 2), the difference in mean time between failures of the two disk drives.
Independent samples of n1 = 10 and n2 = 15 failures produced the following statistics:
Disk Drive 1
x1 = 92 hours
s1 = 16 hours
Disk Drive 2
x2 = 108 hours
s2 = 12 hours
Estimate (1 - 2) with a 95% confidence interval. Which of the two disk drives
appear to give better performance?
3. One of American industrys most fundamental problems the stagnation in
productivity has economic experts seeking methods of reindustrializing the
United States. One possible answer to the productivity stagnation may be industrial
robots. An industrial robot has a control and memory system, often in the form of
minicomputer, which enables it to be programmed to carry out a number of work
routines faster and more efficiently than a human. Since the Japanese now operate
most of the robots in the world, it is decided to estimate (p1 p2), the difference
between the proportions of U.S. and Japanese firms that currently employ at one
industrial robot. Suppose random samples of U.S. and Japanese firms are selected,
and the number of firms employing at least one industrial robot are recorded, with the
sample sizes and results summarized in the accompanying table. Estimate the true
difference in proportions (p1 p2), using a 95% confidence interval. Which country
has the higher proportion of firms that employ industrial robots?
Number of firms sampled
Number of sampled firms that employ at least
one industrial robot
U.S.
N1 = 75
16
JAPAN
N2 = 50
22
Examples:
*4/252) An electrical firm manufactures light bulbs that have a length of life that is
approximately normally distributed with a standard deviation of 40 hours. If a sample of
30 bulbs has an average life of 780 hours, find a 96% confidence interval for the
population mean of all bulbs produced by this firm.
Soln:
Given: n = 30, = 40 hours,x = 780 hours
96% confidence interval
From Table A.3, z/2 = z.02 = 2.05
__
__
x - z/2 /n < < x + z/2 /n
__
__
780 2.05(40)/30 < < 780 + 2.05(40)/30
765 < < 795
5/252) A soft-drink machine is regulated so that the amount of drink dispensed is
approximately normally distributed with a standard deviation equal to 0.15 deciliter. Find
a 95% confidence interval for the mean of all drinks dispensed by this machine if a
random sample of 36 drinks has an average content of 2.25 deciliters.
Soln:
Given: n = 36, = 0.15 deciliter,x = 2.25 deciliters
95% confidence interval
From Table A.3, z/2 = z.025 = 1.96
__
__
x - z/2 /n < < x + z/2 /n
__
__
2.25 1.96(0.15)/36 < < 2.25 + 1.96(0.15)/36
2.201 < < 2.299
*6/252) The heights of a random sample of 50 college students showed a mean of 174.5
centimeters and a standard deviation of 6.9 centimeters.
c) Construct a 98% confidence interval for the mean height of all college students.
d) What can we assert with 98% confidence about the possible size of our error if we
estimate the mean height of all college students to be 174.5 centimeters?
Soln:
ENGSTAT Notes of AM Fillone
9/253) How large a sample is needed in Exercise 5 if we wish to be 95% confident that
our sample mean will be within 0.09 deciliter of the true mean?
Soln:
Given: z/2 = z.025 = 1.96, = 0.15 deciliter, e = 0.09 deciliter
n = (z/2 / e)2
n = (1.96(0.15) / 0.09)2
n 11 samples
*10/253) An efficiency expert wishes to determine the average time that it takes to drill
three holes in a certain metal clamp. How large a sample will he need to be 95%
confident that his sample mean will be within 15 seconds of the true mean? Assume that
it is known from previous studies that = 40 seconds.
Soln:
Given: z/2 = z.025 = 1.96, = 40 seconds, e = 15 seconds
n = (z/2 / e)2
n = (1.96(40) / 15)2
n 28 samples
11/253) A UCLA researcher claims that the life span of mice can be extended by as much
as 25% when the calories in their food are reduced by approximately 40% from the time
they are weaned. The restricted diets are enriched to normal levels by vitamins and
protein. Assuming that it is known from previous studies that = 5.8 months, how many
mice should be included in our sample if we wish to be 99% confident that the mean life
span of the sample will be within 2 months of the population mean for all mice subjected
to this reduced diet?
Soln:
Given: z/2 = z.005 = 2.575, = 5.8 months, e = 2 months
n = (z/2 / e)2
n = (2.575(5.8) / 2)2
n 56 samples
12/253) Regular consumption of presweetened cereals contributes to tooth decay, heart
disease, and other degenerative diseases according to studies conducted by Dr. W. H.
Bowen of the National Institute of Health and Dr. J. Yudben, Professor of Nutrition and
Dietetics at the University of London. In a random sample of 20 similar single servings of
Alpha-Bits the average sugar content was 11.3 grams with a standard deviation of 2.45
ENGSTAT Notes of AM Fillone
grams. Assuming that the sugar contents are normally distributed, construct a 95%
confidence interval for the mean sugar content for single servings of Alpha-Bits.
Soln:
Given: n = 20 servings, x = 11.3 grams, s = 2.45 grams
95% confidence interval
From Table A.4, t/2 = t.025 = 2.093
__
__
x - t/2 s/n < < x + t/2 s/n,
__
__
11.3 2.093 (2.45)/20 < < 11.3 + 2.093 (2.45)/20
10.15 < < 12.45
*13/253) A machine is producing metal pieces that are cylindrical in shape. A sample of
pieces is taken and the diameters are 1.01, 0.97, 1.03, 1.04, 0.99, 0.98, 0.99, 1.01, and
1.03 centimeters. Find a 99% confidence interval for the mean diameter of pieces from
this machine, assuming an approximate normal distribution.
Soln:
1.01 + 0.97 + 1.03 + 1.04 + 0.99 + 0.98 + 0.99 + 1.01 + 1.03
x = ---------------------------------------------------------------------------9
x = 1.006
9
s2 = (xi -x)2/(n-1) = 0.0048 / 8
i=1
s = 0.024
From Table A.4, t/2 = = t .005 = 3.355
__
__
x - t/2 s/n < < x + t/2 s/n,
__
__
1.006 3.355(.024)/9 < < 1.006 + 3.355(.024)/9
0/974 < < 1.037
14/253) A random sample of 8 cigarettes of a certain brand has an average nicotine
content of 2.6 milligrams and a standard deviation of 0.9 milligram. Construct a 99%
confidence interval for the true average nicotine content of this particular brand of
cigarettes, assuming the distribution of nicotine contents to be approximately normal.
Soln:
Given: n = 8, x = 2.6 milligrams, s = 0.90
@ 99% confidence interval
From Table A.4, t/2 = = t .005 = 3.355
ENGSTAT Notes of AM Fillone
__
__
x - t/2 s/n < < x + t/2 s/n,
__
__
1.006 3.355(.024)/9 < < 1.006 + 3.355(.024)/9
0.974 < < 1.037
15/253) A random sample of 12 shearing pins is taken in a study of the Rockwell
hardness of the head on the pin. Measurements on the Rockwell hardness were made for
each of the 12, yielding an average value of 48.50 with a sample standard deviation of
1.5. Assuming the measurements to be normally distributed, construct a 90% confidence
interval for the mean Rockwell hardness.
Soln:
Given: n = 12, x = 48.5 hardness, s = 1.5 hardness
@ 90% confidence interval
From Table A.4, t/2 = = t .05 = 1.796
__
__
x - t/2 s/n < < x + t/2 s/n,
__
__
48.5 1.796(1.5)/12 < < 48.5 + 1.796(1.5)/12
47.722 < < 49.278
*16/253) A random sample of 12 graduates of a certain secretarial school typed an
average of 79.3 words per minute with a standard deviation of 7.8 words per minute.
Assuming a normal distribution for the number of words typed per minute, find a 95%
confidence interval for the average number of words typed by all graduates of this school.
Soln:
Given: n = 12, x = 79.3 words/minute, s = 7.8 words/minute
@ 95% confidence interval
From Table A.4, t/2 = = t .025 = 2.201
__
__
x - t/2 s/n < < x + t/2 s/n,
__
__
79.3 2.201(7.8)/12 < < 79.3 + 2.201(7.8)/12
74.344 < < 84.256
17/253) A random sample of 25 cigarettes of a certain brand has an average nicotine
content of 1.3 milligrams and a standard deviation of 0.17 milligram. Find the 95%
tolerance limits that will contain 90% of the nicotine contents for this brand of cigarettes,
assuming the measurements to be normally distributed.
Soln:
ENGSTAT Notes of AM Fillone
2.5
3.3
4.0
4.8
5.6
5.2
2.9
3.7
3.0
3.6
2.8
4.8
Assuming that the measurements represent a random sample from a normal population,
find the 99% tolerance limits that will contain 95% of the drying times.
Soln:
15
x = xi / n = 3.787
i=1
15
s2 = (xi -x)2/(n-1)
i=1
s = 0.971
@ n = 15, (1- ) = 0.99, (1- ) = 0.95
From Table A.7, k = 3.507
x ks
3.787 3.507(0.971)
3.787 3.405
Therefore, the tolerance limit is from 0.382 to 7.192 hours.
19/253) Referring to Exercise 7, construct a 99% tolerance interval containing 99% of the
miles traveled by automobiles annually in Virginia. Assume the distribution of
measurements to be approximately normal.
Soln:
Given: n = 100, x = 23,500 kilometers, s = 3,900 kilometers
@ n = 100, (1- ) = 0.99, (1- ) = 0.99
From Table A.7, k = 3.096
x ks
23,500 3.096(3,900)
Therefore, the tolerance limit is from 11,426 to 35,574 kilometers.
20/253) Referring to Exercise 15, construct a 95% interval containing 905 of the
measurements.
Soln:
Given: n = 12, x = 48.5 hardness, s = 1.5 hardness
@ n = 12, (1- ) = 0.95, (1- ) = 0.90
From Table A.7, k = 2.655
x ks
48.5 2.655(1.5)
Therefore, the tolerance limit is from 44.52 to 52.48 hardness.
Examples:
1/263) A random sample of size n1 = 25 taken from a normal population with a standard
deviation 1 = 5 has a meanx1 = 80. A second random sample size n2 = 36, taken from a
different normal population with a standard deviation 2 = 3, has a meanx2 = 75. Find a
94% confidence interval 1 - 2.
Soln:
Given: n1 = 25, 1 = 5,x1 = 80
n2 = 36, 2 = 3,x2 = 75
@ 94% confidence interval
From Table A.3, z/2 = z.03 = 1.88
___________
___________
2
2
(x1-x2) - z/2 1/n1 + 2/n2 < 1 - 2 < (x1-x2) + z/221/n1 + 22/n2,
___________
__________
(80 - 75) 1.8852/25 + 32/36 < 1 - 2 < (80 - 75) + 1.8852/25 + 32/36,
2.9 < 1 - 2 < 7.1
*2/263) Two kinds of thread are being compared for strength. Fifty pieces of each type of
thread are tested under similar conditions. Brand A has an average tensile strength of 78.3
kilograms with a standard deviation of 5.6 kilograms, while brand B had an average
tensile strength of 87.2 kilograms with a standard deviation of 6.3 kilograms. Construct a
95% confidence interval for the difference of the population means.
Soln:
Given: Brand A: nA = 50, A = 5.6 kg,xA = 78.3 kg
Brand B: nB = 50, B = 6.3 kg,xB = 87.2 kg
@ 95% confidence interval
ENGSTAT Notes of AM Fillone
Sample 2
n2 = 200
x2 = 9.1ml
2 = 0.9 ml
Physics (4-hour)
n4 = 12
x4 = 84
s4 = 4
sp = 5.305
________
_________
(x4 -x3) - t/2sp1/n1 + 1/n2 < 4 - 3 < (x4 -x3) + t/2 sp1/n1 + 1/n2,
_________
_________
(84-77)-2.763(5.305)1/18 + 1/12 < 4 - 3 < (84-77)+2.763(5.305)1/18 + 1/12
1.537 < 4 - 3 < 12.463
7/264) The following data, recorded in days, represent the length of time to recovery for
patients randomly treated with one of two medications to clear up severe bladder
infections:
Medication 1
n1 = 14
x1 = 17
s21 = 1.5
Medication 2
n2 = 16
x2 = 19
s22 = 1.8
Find a 99% confidence interval for the difference 2 - 1 in the mean recovery time for
the two medications, assuming normal populations with equal variances.
Soln:
@ 99% confidence interval for the difference 2 - 1
From Table A.4 , @ = 28, t/2 = t.005 = 2.763
Toyota
n2 = 10
x2 = 11 km/l
s2 = 0.8 km/l
sp = 0.915
________
________
(16 - 11) 1.725(0.915)1/12+1/10 < 2 - 1 < (16 - 11) + 1.725(0.915)1/12+1/10,
4.324 < 2 - 1 < 5.676
*11/264) The government awarded grants to the agricultural departments of 9 universities
to test the yield capabilities of two new varieties of wheat. Each variety was planted on
plots of equal area at each university and the yields, in kilograms per plot, recorded as
follows:
Variety
1
2
d
sd =
1
38
45
7
2
23
25
2
3
35
31
-4
__________________
n
n
n d2i ( di )2
i=1
i=1
------------------------- =
University
4
5
6
41 44 29
38 50 33
-3
6
4
7
37
36
-1
8
31
40
9
9
38
43
5
_______________
9(237)2 (25)2
-------------------- = 4.5765
n(n-1)
9(9-1)
d = (7 + 2 4 3 + 6 + 4 1 + 9 + 5)/9 = 2.78
@ 95% confidence interval
From Table A.4, = n 1 = 8, t/2 = t.025 = 2.306
_
_
d - t/2 (sd / n ) < D < d + t/2 (sd / n ),
__
__
2.78 2.306 (4.5765/9 ) < D < 2.78 + 2.306 (4.5765/9 )
-0.738 < D < 6.298
Example:
1/270)
(a) A random sample of 200 voters is selected and 114 are found to support an
annexation suit. Find the 96% confidence interval for the fraction of the voting
population favoring the suit.
(b) What can we assert with 96% confidence about the possible size of our error if we
estimate the fraction of voters favoring the annexation suit to be 0.57?
Soln:
Given: p = 114/200 = 0.57, q = 86/200 = 0.43
@96% Confidence interval
From Table A.3, z/2 = z.02 = 2.05
a)
______
______
p - z/2pq / n < p <p + z/2pq /n
____________
____________
0.57 2.05 0.57(0.43)/200 < p < 0.57 + 2.05 0.57(0.43)/200
0.498 < p < 0.642
____________
b) Error 2.05 0.57(0.43)/200 .072
2/270) a) A random sample of 500 cigarette smokers is selected and 86 are found to have
a preference for brand X. Find the 90% confidence interval for the fraction of the
population of cigarette smokers who prefer brand X.
b) What can we assert with 90% confidence about the possible size of our error if we
estimate the fraction of cigarette smokers who prefer brand X to be 0.172?
Soln:
Given: p = 86/500 = 0.172, q = 414/500 = 0.828
@90% Confidence interval
From Table A.3, z/2 = z.05 = 1.645
a)
______
______
p - z/2pq / n < p <p + z/2pq /n
____________
____________
0.172 1.645 0.172(0.828)/500 < p < 0.172 + 1.645 0.172(0.828)/500
0.1442 < p < 0.1998
____________
b) Error 1.645 0.172(0.828)/500 .0278
*3/270) In a random sample of 1000 homes in a certain city, it is found that 228 are
heated by oil. Find the 99% confidence interval for the proportion of homes in this city
that are heated by oil.
Soln:
Given: p = 228/1000 = 0.228, q = 772/1000 = 0.772
@99% Confidence interval
From Table A.3, z/2 = z.005 = 2.575
______
______
p - z/2pq / n < p <p + z/2pq /n
_______________
_______________
0.228 2.575 0.228(0.772)/1000 < p < 0.228 + 2.575 0.228(0.772)/1000
0.1938 < p < 0.2622
4/270) Compute a 98% confidence interval for the proportion of defective items in a
process when it is found that a sample of size 100 yields 8 defectives.
Soln:
Given: p = 8/100 = 0.08, q = 92/100 = 0.92
@98% Confidence interval
From Table A.3, z/2 = z.01 = 2.33
______
______
p - z/2pq / n < p <p + z/2pq /n
____________
____________
0.08 2.33 0.08(0.92)/100 < p < 0.08 + 2.33 0.08(0.92)/100
0.0168 < p < 0.1432
*5/270) A new rocket-launching system is being considered for deployment of small,
short-range rockets. The existing system has p = 0.8 as the probability of a successful
launch. A sample of 40 experimental launches is made with the new system and 34 are
successful.
(c) Construct a 95% confidence interval for p.
(d) Would you conclude that the new system is better?
Soln:
Given: p = 34/40 = 0.85, q = 6/40 = 0.15
@95% Confidence interval
From Table A.3, z/2 = z.025 = 1.96
a)
______
______
______
______
p - z/2pq / n < p <p + z/2pq /n
____________
____________
0.24 2.575 0.24(0.76)/100 < p < 0.24 + 2.575 0.24(0.76)/100
0.130 < p < 0.350
____________
b) Error 2.575 0.24(0.76)/100 0.110
7/271)
a) According to a report in the Roanoke Times & World-News, August 20, 1981,
approximately 2/3 of the 1600 adults polled by telephone said they think the space
shuttle program is a good investment for the country. Find a 95% confidence interval
for the proportion of American adults who think the space shuttle program is a good
investment for the country.
b) What can we assert with 95% confidence about the possible size of our error if we
estimate the proportion of American adults who think the space shuttle program is a
good investment to be 2/3?
Soln:
Given: p = 0.667, q = 0.333
@95% Confidence interval
From Table A.3, z/2 = z.025 = 1.96
a)
______
______
p - z/2pq / n < p <p + z/2pq /n
_______________
_______________
0.667 1.96 0.667(0.333)/1600 < p < 0.667 + 1.96 0.667(0.333)/1600
0.6439 < p < 0.6901
_______________
b) Error 1.96 0.667(0.333)/1600 0.023
*8/271) In the newspaper article referred to in Exercise 7, 32% of the 1600 adults polled
said the U.S. space program should emphasize scientific exploration. How large a sample
of adults is needed in the poll if one wishes to be 95% confident that the estimated
percentage will be within 2% of the true percentage?
Soln:
Given : p = 0.32, q = 0.68
n = z2/2pq / e2.
n = (1.96)2(.32)(.68)/(.02)2 2,090
9/271) How large a sample is needed in Exercise 1 if we wish to be 96% confident that
our sample proportion will be within 0.02 of the true fraction of the voting population?
Soln:
Given : p = 0.57, q = 0.43
n = z2/2pq / e2.
n = (2.05)2(.57)(.43)/(.02)2 2,576
10/271) How large a sample is needed in Exercise 3 if we wish to be 99% confident that
our sample proportion will be within 0.05 of the true proportion of homes in this city that
are heated by oil?
Soln:
Given : p = 0.228, q = 0.772
n = z2/2pq / e2.
n = (2.575)2(.228)(.772)/(.05)2 467
11/271) How large a sample is needed in Exercise 4 if we wish to be 98% confident that
our sample proportion will be within 0.05 of the true proportion defective?
Soln:
Given : p = 0.08, q = 0.92
n = z2/2pq / e2.
ENGSTAT Notes of AM Fillone
n = z2/2 / 4e2
n = (1.96)2/4(0.04)2 601
15/271) A certain geneticist is interested in the proportion of males and females in the
population that have a certain minor blood disorder. In a random sample of 1000 males,
250 are found to be afflicted, whereas 275 of 1000 females tested appear to have the
disorder. Compute a 95% confidence interval for the difference between the proportion of
males and females that have the blood disorder.
Soln:
Given: Males: pm = 250/1000 = 0.25
qm = 750/1000 = 0.75
Females:pf = 275/1000 = 0.275
qf = 725/1000 = 0.725
@ 95% confidence interval
Using Table A.3, z/2 = z.025 = 1.96
a)
________________
__________________
(p1 -p2) - z/2p1q1/n1 +p2q2/n2 < pfpm < (p1 -p2) + z/2p1q1/n1 +p2q2 / n2,
________________________________
(0.275 0.25) 1.96(0.25)(0.75)/1000 + (0.275)(0.725)/1000 < pf pm < (0.275-0.25) +
_________________________________
1.96 (0.25)(0.75)/1000 + (0.275)(0.725)/1000
-0.01355 < pf pm < 0.06355
b) Yes
*16/271) A cigarette-manufacturing firm claims that its brand A line of cigarettes outsells
its brand B line by 8%. If it is found that 42 of 200 smokers prefer brand A and 18 of 150
smokers prefer brand B, compute a 94% confidence interval for the difference between
the proportions of sales of the 2 brands and decide if the 8% difference is a valid claim.
Soln:
Given: Brand A:
pA = 42/200 = 0.21
qA = 158/200 = 0.79
Brand B:
pB = 18/150 = 0.12
qB = 132/150 = 0.88
@ 94% confidence interval
Using Table A.3, z/2 = z.03 = 1.88
a)
_________________
__________________
(pA-pB)- z/2pAqA/nA +pBqB/nB <pApB< (pA-pB) + z/2pAqA/nA +pBqB/nB,
____________________________
(0.21 0.12) 1.88(0.21)(0.79)/200 + (0.12)(0.88)/150 < pA pB < (0.21-0.12) +
_____________________________
1.88 (0.21)(0.79)/200 + (0.12)(0.88)/150
ENGSTAT Notes of AM Fillone
_____________________________________
(0.94680.9265) 1.96(0.9468)(0.0532)/282 + (0.9265)(0.0735)/313 < pB pG <
______________________________________
(0.9468-0.9265) + 1.645 (0.9468)(0.0532)/282 + (0.9265)(0.0735)/313
-0.0187 < pB pG < 0.0593
Example:
*1/276) A manufacturer of car batteries claims that his batteries will last, on average, 3
years with a variance of 1 year. If 5 of these batteries have lifetimes of 1.9, 2.4, 3.0, 3.5,
and 4.2 years, construct a 95% confidence interval for 2 and decide if the manufacturers
claim that 2 = 1 is valid. Assume the population of battery lives to be approximately
normally distributed.
Soln:
n
n
n x2i ( xi )2
i=1
i=1
5(48.26) (15)2
2
s = ------------------------------ = ------------------------ = 0.815
n (n-1)
5(5 1)
For a 95% confidence interval, = .05. From Table A.5 with v = 4 degrees of freedom,
we find 20.025 = 11.143 and 20.975 = 0.484.
4(0.815)/11.143 < 2 < 4(0.815)/0.484
0.293 < 2 < 6.736
Therefore, the claim is valid.
2/276) A random sample of 20 students obtained a mean ofx = 72 and a variance of s2 =
16 on a college placement test in mathematics. Assuming the scores to be normally
distributed, construct a 98% confidence interval for 2.
Soln:
For a 98% confidence interval, = .02. From Table A.5 with v = 19 degrees of freedom,
we find 20.01 = 36.191 and 20.99 = 7.633.
(20-1)(16)/36.191 < 2 < (20-1)(16)/7.633
8.400 < 2 < 39.827
*7/276) Construct a 98% confidence interval for 1/2 in Exercise 8 on page 264, where
1 and 2 are, respectively, the standard deviations for the distances obtained per liter of
fuel by the Volkswagen and Toyota minitrucks.
Soln:
Given: Volkswagen, s1 = 1
n1 = 12
Toyota,
s2 = 0.8
n2 = 10
(s21/s22)(1/f/2(1, 2)) < 21/22 < (s21/s22)f/2(1, 2),
For a 98% confidence interval, = 0.02. Interpolating in Table A.6, we find f0.01(11,9) =
5.185 and f0.01(9,11) = 4.63.
(1)2
21
(1)2 (4.63)
----------------- < -------- < ---------------(0.8)2 (5.185)
22
(0.8)2
0.549 < 1/2 < 2.690