The Future of Sports 2015 Report

INTRODUCTION
Sports have drawn people together to cheer for

their heroes for as long as there has been a record
of human activity. Sports have been seen to rival
religion in the power to unify diverse populations,
and in some cases have sparked positive social
movements that carry over to the worlds of business
and government.
Sports are timeless, yet with each generation, new technology and social dynamics
have changed and intensified how we experience sports. In the past fifty years, we
have seen many radical changes broadcast television and cable, credit cards,
salary caps, player unions, integration, globalization of the fanbase, shared
revenue agreements, and $100 million player contracts.
The changes on the horizon will likely be even more disruptive.
For this project, we assembled a brain trust of futurists and experts to gaze into the
next 25 years. Some of the underlying trends are undeniable. Medical advances are
allowing us to alter the bodies of athletes. The computing power of smartphones
doubles every 18 months. The appetite for sports is nearly insatiable fans expect
all-access passes into the clubhouse and into the boardroom.
Change is coming fast. But how these trends intersect, and what our industry will
look like as a result, is far from obvious.
Discussing the future of our industry can be anxiety-provoking, simply because

so much seems uncertain. No one wants to bet on the wrong trend. This project
serves to remind us that the future is inherently fun fun to debate, to contemplate,
and to imagine. Some of these futurists predictions will come true, and more of
them likely wont. Our goal isnt to assert one version of the future over another; our
goal in publishing this report is to ignite your thinking and to help us as an industry
take charge of the conversation.
No futurist knows exactly what will happen next for our industry, but historians will
someday write our chapter. Twenty-five years from now, we want the next generation
to look back at this time and appreciate the groundwork we laid for them.
Jeremy M. Jacobs
Chairman of Delaware North
Owner of the Boston Bruins
September 2015
THE FUTURE OF SPORTS 01

CONTENTS EDITORS LETTER
01 Introduction We set out to discover the future of sports, on the field and off.
Barely had we begun when we noticed that the future seemed
enhancement. Star athletes with increasing financial and cultur-
al power will control their own content streams and have ever
03 Editors Letter
to be arriving way ahead of schedule. Scenarios we imagined
could happen five to 10 years out instead were happening all
greater influence over the management of teams and leagues.
around us. For fans, it will be a new age of wonders. Theyll be able to
04 Contributors
The NCAAs amateur commandment was ruled to violate US
access an unlimited number of games, not to mention the
private lives of their favorite players, on a round-the-clock
06 The Stadium
antitrust laws. The month after we talked with experts at
Singularity University about the driverless car, Audi put its
basis. Virtual reality will provide fans the experience of standing
next to their sports heroes as the action unfolds around them.
autonomous vehicle on the road to cross the entire country. By expressing their collective voice through social media, fans
10 Broadcasting
A virtual-reality headset called Oculus Rift went from crowd-
funding to a $2 billion acquisition by Facebook. (When one of
will take part in decisions that were once made by a small set
of sports executives in boardrooms. Every fan will become a
14
us tried it, he was so hypnotized by the virtual world of the Rift content provider: the amount of content streamed by fans from
The Athlete that he fell backward off the stool he was sitting on, disrupting smartphones inside arenas will exceed the amount generated
the Singularity University seminar going on in the next room.) by official broadcasters and will be seen by more people.
18 The Third Venue

World Cup television audiences surpassed NBA finals and World
Series ratings. Leagues and franchises will inevitably have to abandon the safe
22
harbor of traditional broadcast deals and embrace the perils
Sponsorship + Advertising Teenage video gamers started to receive college athletic schol- and potential of the Internet. Non-broadcast media like Google,
arships, while others went pro and earned millions competing Netflix, Facebook, and, yes, Yahoo!, will provide new, highly
26 Teams + Leagues
in e-sports tournaments. A female coach, Becky Hammon,
joined the staff of the San Antonio Spurs. Another woman, Jen
personalized ways of watching live sports. Franchise owners
will create their own Bitcoin-like cybercurrencies that blur the
Welter, joined the Arizona Cardinals as an assistant linebackers line between real money, loyalty programs, and gambling chips.
30 E-Sports + Fantasy Sports coach. We learned that digital broadcast pirates had earned
$220 million the prior year on their stolen feeds. The NFL an-
Stadium designers will rethink the physical space that fans and
teams inhabit. New open-concept megaparks that can handle
34 The Fan
nounced plans to livestream a Buffalo Bills game on Yahoo! up to 250,000 roaming fans will redefine game day.
Chinese scientists used a breakthrough technique invented in Were grateful to the Jacobs family for sending us on the first
38 Extreme + Adventure Sports the US to edit the DNA of 86 human embryos, paving the way
for the creation of genetically modified superathletes.
leg of this journey. We cant give you a live tour of the future yet.
But this report will serve as a tour of how the future is being
42
imagined by the best minds of today.
Payments + Ticketing Produced by Things were getting wild.
Attention Span Media
46 Fanbase Economics
http://attentionspan.com Over the next 20 years, the entire sports industry will face a
globalizing culture and rapidly changing tastes, demographics, Josh McHugh, Editor in Chief
50
Special thanks and habits. Po Bronson, Contributing Editor
The Final Word Kamran Rosen (reporting and research), Gary Bettman, Ethan Watters, Contributing Editor
Wendy Selig, Ted Leonsis, Future Cities Lab, Luke Bronson, The primary driver of all this accelerating change, Moores Law
Blaise Zerega, SF Elite Academy, Rick Abramson, the doubling of computing power every 18 months will give
Amy Latimer, Todd Merry, Chuck Moran, John Wentzell, way to quantum computing. For the athlete, new genetic therapy
Garrett Law, Peter White, Roger Noll, Mark Charles, will be available to make their bones unbreakable and their
Margaret Johnson brains less susceptible to concussions.
Singularity University These advances will pave the way for huge jumps in perfor-
Paul Saffo, Salim Ismail, Aaron Frank mance and a global debate over theoretical limits of
02 THE FUTURE OF SPORTS 03

CONTRIBUTORS
Po Bronson Ethan Watters Josh McHugh Chris Cowart Kevin Roberson Tyson Law Joseph Reilly Michael J. Coren
Contributing Editor Contributing Editor Editor In Chief Contributing Editor Design Editor Creative Director Principal Photographer Contributor
Po Bronson is the author of Ethan is an author, journalist Joshs experience at the in- Chris is a designer, business Kevin is a California-based Tyson is the Executive Cre- Joe Reillys photographs Michael is a science jour-
seven books, most recently, and trend spotter who has tersection of technology, me- innovator, and venture inves- graphic designer specializing ative Director for Attention have captured many of the nalist and co-founder of
the New York Times best- spent the last two decades dia, and business began at tor. Out of the office, he is a in identity programs, pack- Span. He received his Mas- most important political Publet, a platform for media
seller, Top Dog: The Science writing about culture and Forbes Magazine, where he sponsored athlete in cyclo- aging, and printed matter. ters in Architecture from the moments of the 20th and and business to create
of Winning & Losing, which social psychology. Most covered software and opened cross and kitesurfing. While Kevin creates engaging, University of Pennsylvania 21st centuries. He served digital publications that work
has become mandatory recently, he is the author of Forbes Bay Area offices. a design leader at IDEO for dynamic, and purposeful School of Design, where he as campaign photographer anywhere on the web. He is a
reading at many profes- Crazy Like Us: The Globaliza- Named four times to TJFRs 14 years, he won numerous work with minimal means studied the intersections of to presidents Jimmy Carter, contributor to Fast Company,
sional sports franchises and tion of the American Psyche. Top 30-under-30 Business design awards and patents. and a modern eye. For his design, fabrication, space, George W. Bush and Barack The Economist, and Foreign
USA Olympics programs. Prior to that, he wrote Urban Reporters, he then became a He serves as a design faculty work, Kevin has received technology, and communica- Obama, and is a trusted Policy, and he served as the
His science journalism has Tribes: Are Friends the New contributing editor at Wired and futurist at Singularity four Clio Awards, three tion. Ty is a multidisciplinary personal photographer for science producer at CNN.
won nine national awards, Family?, an examination of Magazine and a writer for University in Silicon Valley, British Design and Art designer who specializes in former president Bill Clinton. com. He holds an MESc in
including the top award from the growing population of the Vanity Fair, Outside, and where he works with global Direction awards, and two user experience design and Photographer and ultimately environmental economics
the American Association for never marrieds. Watters other publications. As a copy- leaders to apply exponential Art Directors Club of New architectural environments. close personal friend of Joe from Yale and was managing
the Advancement of Science, is a contributor to The writer for Wieden + Kennedy, technologies to address hu- York awards. He has been Tyson received his BA in DiMaggio, Joe Reilly was editor of Cambodias Phnom
as well as the PEN USA Lit- New York Times Magazine, he worked on campaigns for manitys grand challenges. featured by the American Electronic Media, Arts & named Director of External Penh Post.
erary Award for Journalism. Outside, Discover, Mens Electronic Arts Madden NFL He writes for ESPN Mag- Center for Design, Commu- Communication from Rens- Affairs of the Joe DiMaggio
This work has been cited in Journal, Details, Wired, and NCAA Football titles. azine on future directions nication Arts design annual, selaer Polytechnic Institute. Childrens Hospital and does
over 100 academic journals and This American Life. His Josh holds a BA in English for sports performance and and International Design extensive philanthropic work.
and over 300 books. He lives writing on the new research from Yale. His efforts to dunk fan experience. He lives in Magazine.
in San Francisco with his surrounding epigenetics a basketball are the subject Redwood City, CA, with his
family, where he serves as was featured in the 2003s of Dunkumentary, which family, where he serves as
volunteer President of San Best American Science and screened at the Cannes Film a Trustee at Phillips Brooks
Francisco Youth Soccer. Nature Writing series. Festival. Josh is the CEO of School in Menlo Park.
digital agency Attention Span.

Will going to stadiums to watch sports continue to be an important part of The world of video and connectivity is not threatening the
our culture? New megavenues that can handle up to 250,000 fans will redefine stadium experience. Look at the way that jumbo screens
the game-day experience. The seating area around the field wont necessarily
have been embraced outside of venuesthink Wimble-
grow, but the arena space will extend outward to include a greater variety of ways
fans can experience game day. Ballpark Village St. Louis is an early step in this
CHRIS WHITE
VICE PRESIDENT
CISCO SPORTS AND
don or the World Cup. We are still human beings and we
evolution. Tickets will no longer be sold just for seats in view of the field;
ENTERTAINMENT
SOLUTIONS GROUP still yearn for human interaction. There is nothing more
open-concept venues will provide tiers of access that allow fans to roam the uplifting than being in a positive crowd environment with
complex. The tailgating experience will come inside the gates. The high-end fan a bunch of people having fun roaring for a team. The
will enjoy the luxury box, while the average fan brings the family to the pavilions, stadium experience is no longer just in-venue.
open at one end to the stadium bowl. These fans watch the game on massive
high-definition jumbotrons from standing bar areas and picnic tables. Amusement
-park rides will entertain the kids. Think of the experience as part Phoenix Open ALTERNATE FUTURE
Immersive interactive entertainment takes the world by storm, and virtual sports experiences leave the in-person
(189,000 fans per day), part Coachella music festival (75,000), part Kentucky variety in the dust. High-end micro-stadiums built to cater to the super-rich proliferate, scaling down in size and up in
Derby (165,000 fans), and part Disneyland. intimacy and luxury levels, compensating for the diminished appetite for live attendance.
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS
01 02 03 04
Outdoor screen technology Smart ticketing technology Self-driving vehicles will Hyperloop transportation will
will continue to evolve and will use sports fans social eliminate the primary radically increase the radius
amaze with ever-larger and graphs to increase the pull of inconvenience of live sporting within which a trip to the
more vivid megadisplays. live events at the stadium by events: parking. game is feasible.
connecting friends before and
during games.
THE STADIUM AT&T Stadium, Dallas

capacity 85,000
$1.43 billion
CPS = $16,824
Levis Stadium
capacity 68,500
$1.3 billion
CPS = $18,978
SPENDTHRIFT STADIUMS
cost per seat (inflation-adjusted) Three Rivers Stadium US Cellular Field Gillette Stadium
capacity 59,000 Sun Life Stadium capacity 44,000
Seattle Kingdome capacity 68,000
$354 million capacity 65,000 $289 million
Candlestick Park Houston Astrodome capacity 66,000 $426 million
CPS = $6,000 $239 million CPS = $6,568
capacity 63,000 capacity 60,000 $278 million CPS = $6,265
CPS = $3,677
$120 million $262 million CPS = $4,212
CPS = $1,905 CPS = $4,367
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
06 THE FUTURE OF SPORTS IMAGE COPYRIGHT FUTURE CITIES LAB, SAN FRANCISCO 07
Will going to stadiums to watch sports continue to be an important part of GREEN FIELD OPPORTUNITY
our culture? Number of stadiums per 1 million population, by country:
China 0.1
India 0.6
Russia 1.2
Iran 1.3
Mexico 1.4
South Africa 1.8
Turkey 2.5
Brazil 4.3
THE STADIUM
France 5.7
Germany 6.5
Canada 6.7
U.K. 6.7
United States 7.8
South Korea 8.2
Data Transfer of Football Content

The future is already flooding into stadiums, thanks to fans
handheld supercomputers, also known as smartphones:
Levis Stadium required over 31
feet of fiber optic cable for each Fans want to know: Am I getting
of its 68,000 seats.
> The Celtics and other franchises have started experi- content that I cant get at home?
menting with seat upgrade opportunities via a mobile app Because if thats the case, then
for season ticket holders and offering fans video and
audio programs. thats a benefit for me to come.
SASHA VICTORINE
> Above the Boston Bruins home ice at Delaware Norths illegal behavior by fans at games. A company called SPORTING INNOVATIONS
MO TU WE TH FR SA SU
TD Garden, a mobile app lets LinkedIn Lounge members Crowdoptics has patented a system that collects information
know which of their professional contacts are at the game. on where fans are pointing their smartphones, allowing Over a single week of NFL games, football fans are uploading and
downloading the equivalent of the Library of Congress twice.
> The New England Patriots have promised that attendees security officials to triangulate the location of security
will have access to cameras not available on TV. "Youll be incidents and gain immediate access to video to assess
able to watch a feed from a camera that is zeroed in just the disturbance. The answer is to invest in technology that is proven but still 10-25 YEAR
has plenty of room for innovation. For the next five to 10
on Tom Brady." The Patriots have also hinted that fans might
Just as airports have been reconfigured with more restau- years, that technology is undoubtedly the smartphone and Stadiums built in the future will be more modular, less
be able to listen in to radio communication between the
rants and services inside the security zone, stadiums will the growing number of connected devices. The adoption expensive to build, and more multipurpose. Predicted
coach and quarterback.
extend security perimeters farther away from the field, question is settled: There are now more mobile devices than advances in ultra-lightweight carbon fiber and other
> In 2014, a cricket stadium in Australia launched LTE putting more restaurants and stores inside the zone. Ticket- there are people on the planet. However, we are just materials will allow for morphing of buildings and rooftops.
Advanced, a technology that broadcasts live commentary and beginning to understand how they will be put to use.
ing systems will tie together names and online IDs of ticket
video to fans with smartphones.
holders, using facial recognition technology to know exactly The entire footprint of the stadium area will almost certainly
> Apps such as At the Ballpark already function as who is inside the security zone. Fans already expect the ability to tweet, upload pictures, change with the adoption of self-driving and self-parking
diaries of fandom. In all likelihood, when the kid of today view video, and access their social networks, and stadiums cars. Cars that can drop fans and then park at a distance
is grown up, he will not just give his child his player cards, 1-5 YEAR FUTURE are working hard to keep up with the demand for data flow. will likely free up 20 to 30% of near-venue area for other
hell download a lifetime of photos and video clips of games purposes. Pre-game tailgate parties will move from
attended digitally enhanced and preserved memories There is no part of the in-person sports experience that 5-10 YEAR the parking lot to inside the venue.
documenting his love of the game. The lore of the game will wont be radically impacted by advances in technology.
be enhanced and personalized by deep data, encouraging Safety, security, transportation, and connection to the > Video walls built into stadium architecture The smaller footprint of stadiums will allow them to be built
fans and the children of fans to attend games to keep the on-field action are all evolving. For the stadium owner, the > On-field holographic replays closer to city centers and thereby to become more useful and
tradition alive. difficult question is this: With technology advancing so > Glasses-free 3D technology in luxury boxes more integrated in the life of a city. The entire sporting
Stadium security will evolve, combining heightened levels of quickly, how do you know where and when to place your complex not just the seats at the game will become an
safety with tech-enhanced capabilities. Fan-generated video bets? Late adopters get left behind, and, as ESPN's recent attraction. Many more fans will come into the complex and
is already being routinely used to identify and prosecute failure with 3-D broadcasting demonstrated, early adopters while not everyone has a seat, all will have a front-row
often get burned. experience.

How will broadcasting change? > Google, Facebook, or another so-called CHALLENGES IN THE NEW MEDIA LANDSCAPE
over-the-top player will outbid all traditional broadcasters for rights to a major For Digital Media and
global sport and give the games away for free. > Athletes will assert control For Sports Organiztions For Broadcasters Broadband Companies For Fans and Viewers
over their off-the-field media presences, carving out a valuable niche of content Maintaining exclusive Adopting a start-up Breaking the stranglehold Finding high-quality,
long held by leagues and broadcasters. > Advertising revenues from pirated dominion over regional mentality and becoming that broadcasters hold over relevant sports news and
viewership rights distinct innovative leaders in online video content rights information based on
sports content will top $1 billion annually. > The term broadcasting will from national and distribution of games and personal preferences in
become obsolete. international contracts other sports media a media landscape with
hundreds of options
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS Creating new business Deciding whether to compete Establishing profitable Determining which sites,
models designed for with or partner with new business models for the commentators, and sources
01 02 03 04 online viewers; developing online venues and delivery of online sports can be trusted for accurate,
mobile content telecommunications providers content timely, and reliable content
Cord-Cutting: 25% of Late Piracy: More than 50% of Video streaming has Facebook can integrate your
Millennials went completely Americans between the ages overtaken live programming online friends with your
cable-free in the past year. of 18 and 34 admitted to as the viewing method of viewing experience, Integrating live sporting Preventing online piracy Offering reliable premium Deciding whether to pay for
watching pirated content in choice in American house- something that mainstream events with videogames while responding to fans content that will attract sports content or access it
a recent survey. holds, 55% to 45%. broadcasters cant do. in real time desire to share images, viewers for free through sites that
video and other content offer pirated or substandard
media content
BROADCASTING Using the Internet to build

new fans for minor and
emergent sports
Reacting to quickly-changing
viewer habits and practices
during a time of regulatory
uncertainty in a fast-changing
media environment
Developing profitable new
apps in specialty mobile
news and highlight packages
Becoming media sources
themselves by offering other
fans commentary, video,
data, or other content
We are entering a time of commercial and BRETT HUTCHINS

AUTHOR OF
SPORT BEYOND TELEVISION:
policy confusion for sports broadcast and THE INTERNET, DIGITAL MEDIA
AND THE RISE OF NETWORKED
advertising. There will be a proliferation MEDIA SPORTS
of niche channels and digital sports media.

The supplementation, augmentation, or
replacement of broadcast sports is a
generational time bomb.
NFL TV BROADCAST RIGHTS ($ million per year)

4,950
5,000
THE THREAT Broadcast rights have increased steadily in value through recent 4,000
2014 year-over-year increase in sports video decades. But the formerly cozy and exclusive content rights agreements 3,085
between leagues and broadcasters are now under siege by a number of 3,000
473%
streams watched (Nielsen):
forces: the explosion of over-the-top digital video providers, social 2,200
networks, user-generated content, and mobile content apps. The NBAs 2,000
recent nine-year, $24 billion deal with Turner and ESPN will most likely 1,100
900
be the last of the all-inclusive agreements. Other leagues, most notably 1,000 420 473
Major League Baseball, have had success managing their own digital
platforms. The NFL, which has maintained the most conservative 0
content plan among pro sports leagues, recently gave Yahoo! the 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
green light to livestream a Buffalo Bills-Jacksonville Jaguars game.

How will broadcasting change?
BROADCASTING
For over 40 years, sports leagues, franchises, and television embrace of online delivery represents a Cambrian explosion 10-25 YEAR For the fan particularly the younger fan watching
networks enjoyed an unchallenged dominion over sports of ways to access and to monetize sporting events. pirated content carries no stigma. More than 50% of
content. The roles were clear, the guarantees of exclusivity
THE CONVERGENCE Americans between the ages of 18 and 34 admitted to
certain, and the profits reliable. 5-10 YEAR The very word broadcast disappears from the popular
watching pirated content in a recent survey. (Even New
England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady publicly
In December 1993, the NFL shocked the media when it
DIVERGENCE lexicon. Fans will not only be accessing sports content from admitted in 2012 to watching the Super Bowl on a
granted the rights to NFC games to the upstart network Fox. multiple places simultaneously, they will begin to integrate pirate video service.)
The next major leap didn't come until this June, when the Major networks become increasingly boxed out as leagues, these streams into increasingly seamless, coherent, and
NFL granted Yahoo! livestreaming rights to a Jacksonville franchises, players, and even fans themselves become personalized viewer experiences. These multi-layered The increasing cost of accessing exclusive content is the
Jaguars Buffalo Bills game. The real sea change will popular content providers. Following the lead of Manchester viewing experiences may themselves be packaged and sold very thing that is driving the increase in piracy. "The popu-
happen when an Internet giant wins a multi-season contract. United, sports franchises become their own media outlets, from fans to other fans. Depending on which friends house larity of piracy has definitely grown, and the awareness of it
creating their own broadcast, radio, and online channels. you visit to watch the game, your experience will be radically has definitely grown among the general public," said Ricky
Athletes increasingly step up to form their own media different. Bruce, an analyst for NetNames, an anti-piracy company
1-5 YEAR FUTURE outlets. Derek Jeters The Players Tribune marks a critical based in London. "Consumers are always going to find the
THE DEATH OF ONE-SIZE-FITS-ALL advance toward this future. As one media observer noted: You might watch an entire game through a virtual reality cheapest way to consume content, especially if you're going
BROADCASTING Why would an athlete reveal news in an interview, when headset from the perspective of your favorite quarterback to have to pay for something that you previously had access
they can break news on their own media property? Besides while your friend in another town watches the game from to for free."
the networks, the biggest losers in this scenario are sports the point of view of a key offensive lineman of the other
Lulled into a sense of security by exclusive long-term rights
journalists, who increasingly become irrelevant as conduits team. You share your comments and highlights in real time. Faced with these trends, broadcasters who are locked into
contracts, broadcasters have been slow to innovate. Sporting
of inside information. Dont like the outcome of a play? Simply click over to a rights contracts they bought for billions of dollars will have
events once offered free to national audiences have been
multiplayer video game that can reset the exact conditions to scramble as they find that pay-per-view and cable
increasingly moved behind paywalls (cable subscription or
Superfans take a seat at the table once exclusive to network that you just watched and run the play your way. consumers become a less reliable income stream.
pay-per-view) in order to maintain profits. This creates a
commentators and sports journalists. Access to players
tension with a younger fan base that increasingly expects
through social media and other online formats is no longer > Piracy and free online content pose a major risk to the
free and easy access to all forms of content online.
the exclusive province of insiders. Superfans increasingly value of broadcast rights.
break national news stories by posting their own videos and
The floodgates to online access will finally open when a
encounters with players and owners. Viewers increasingly In 2014 digital pirates generated over $220 million in ad
major online platform (likely Google) buys multi-year
turn to these amateur announcers during games to hear revenue using stolen content as their lure to draw online
broadcast rights for a major sports league. At that point,
in-depth, franchise-specific commentary that is not geared viewers. No army of intellectual property rights lawyers will
traditional broadcasters will have to sprint to keep pace.
toward the average fan. make this problem go away. The disruptive arrival of the
Sporting events retain their immense value, but content
Periscope personal livecasting app underscores the issue.
becomes increasingly parsed and delivered in a multiplicity
of ways to viewers using a variety of screens. The ongoing

How will innovations in biological science change the fairness, safety, and DISRUPTION OPPORTUNITY
meaning of sports? Professional and scholastic sports will essentially become Uneven Playing Field Gene doping in one-time-use Legal, safe, and identifiable ways to provide
virus form will alter athletes DNA expression; physiological advantages will be far more
like NASCAR, with the human body regulated the way stock cars are. The essentially invisible to detection, it will erode the beneficial and impactful than current
often-hypocritical stigma against self-optimization in sports will disappear as implicit promise that the game has not been rigged. sports-doping methods.
the ability to improve ones own genetic makeup goes mainstream, thanks to
gene-editing technologies like CRISPR. Safe and detectable drugs that boost key DISRUPTION OPPORTUNITY
10,000 Hours Is now a Pill The AICAR drug boosts AICARs usage is easily detected in the
physiological factors to specific, pre-determined amounts will be legal and will mitochondria production in muscle cells, which will bloodstream, and if its truly safe, this drug
level the playing field for all. Success will be determined more by character, allow sedentary people to run like theyve been should and will be used by everyone to
training their whole lives. prevent obesity and diabetes.
teamwork, strategy, and the mental edge than by the genetic lottery. In this
sense, sports will become a purer test than we have today.
Genetic engineering techniques are now cheap and
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS widespread enough that any knowledgeable individual
can order every material they need off the Internet and
01 02
The first step in manipulating the genome CRISPR, a breakthrough download the software to do their own experiments on
sequencing it is accelerating along a
cost/power curve that makes Moores
gene-editing system, makes
it possible to selectively
themselves. Everyone in citizen science and the
Law look slow by comparison. alter biological traits. biohacker community has stories of being contacted
03 by trainers, coaches, and athletes. There is absolutely
Gradual acceptance of so-called do-it-yourself no way to regulate it, and if you tried to it would be like RAYMOND MCCAULEY
BIOTECHNOLOGY &
biology grows as previously unavailable
therapeutic uses for gene alteration become stemming the tide with a fork. BIOINFORMATICS CHAIR,
SINGULARITY UNIVERSITY
commonplace, and the line between nutrition
and enhancement continues to blur.
THE ATHLETE
KNOWN GENE VARIATIONS
THAT CAUSE SUPERATHLETICISM
ACTN3 EpoR ACE SCN9A MSTN PEPCK TNC & LRP5 ENDURANCE VS SPEED 30
COL5A1
% change in race times 20
Every Increases Allows you Blocks pain When this Helps the Determines Creates 10
Olympic red blood to climb pathways in gene is body burn whether the unbreak-
sprinter and cell count, 8,000-meter nerves, deactivated, fatty acid for body is able bones In the past 100 years, training science has 0
weightlifter thus boosting peaks allowing the body energy and susceptible by increas- taken 1 second off 100-meter sprint times
already oxygen without athletes to grows produces no to tendon ing skeletal (roughly a 10% reduction), vs. 53 minutes -10
carries this deliver oxygen. play through double the lactic acid and density. off the marathon (a 30% reduction). -20
allele. 25-50% and pain. muscle so that ligament
providing mass. athletes can injury. speed endurance -30
Olympian run at top
1914 2014
endurance. speed for
60% longer.

How will innovations in biological science change the fairness, safety, and
meaning of sports?
THE ATHLETE
EARLY IDENTIFICATION IS Meanwhile, fracture putty has been invented and is layer at a time. Low-friction swimsuits shattered world 5-10 YEAR
being tested in humans. Broken bones heal in days, not records so quickly they were outlawed but the
ALREADY HERE weeks, thanks to a needle injection of stem cells and invention of gutters on the sides of the pool that
Athletes are first allowed to use genetic enhancements
platelets into bone fractures. prevented splashback made just as much of a differ-
China already screens out youth divers at ages five to for injury prevention and safety. But as non-
ence. Most of these technological advancements are
eight if their elbows cant touch above their head. professional athletes and medical patients enjoy the
Where is this headed in 20 years? The line between considered perfectly legal; its only when they abruptly
benefits of these new treatments, we finally start
artificial body parts and natural ones will gradually blur change the game (as with the swimsuits) that we
In 5 years, we will see the first national sports federa- letting professional athletes use the performance
as medical scientists converge on how to rebuild humans declare them illegal.
tions looking for EpoR mutations in families, and encour- enhancers up to a predetermined, safe level.
first for injury recovery, then for life extension, and
aging their participation in endurance sports. Uzbeki-
eventually for enhancement. Now imagine turf football fields designed to help every
stans Olympic Committee has already announced it is 10-25 YEAR
receiver hit 22+ miles per hour on a route. Imagine
doing genetic testing on kids, but they will likely get it
wrong. China will lead the way with genetic screening. MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY spring-loaded, carbon-fibre basketball floors that
Future sports wont be a battle of humans vs. robots.
add six more inches to players vertical leap
They just have less cultural recoil at the idea. DESERVES MORE CREDIT There will be natural athletes, and there will be
than they have today.
DAVID EPSTEIN enhanced athletes. They will play in separate leagues,
AUTHOR OF THE SPORTS GENE
According to David Epstein, author of The Sports Gene, if 1-5 YEAR FUTURE the same way today we have amateur collegiate
Jesse Owens were teleported out of the 1936 Berlin leagues and professional leagues. But there will be a
Science will soon cause a reversal in youth specialization.
Olympics and into todays world championships of the Super Bowl. Who wouldnt pay to see if natural-born
Children will remain all-around athletes until post-puberty, Sports continue to stumble as new cases of doping
100-meters, he would finish second behind Usain Bolt. humans can beat ones we perfected in the lab?
then be informed which sport they are most physiologically undermine fan interest. Regulators promise
The reason? Because back in 1936, when Owens ran it in
suited for. This is what Australia already does. detection systems they cant deliver. Fan attention
10.2 seconds, he did so on soft cinders and trowel-dug
gravitates to athletes who succeed because of their
starting blocks. If he were racing on todays track
THE FUTURE OF INJURY RECOVERY: surfaces, using modern starting blocks, he would finish
mental edge, since physical advantages become
PART FRANKENSTEIN, PART EINSTEIN increasingly suspect.
a half-second faster. Racetrack surfaces have had a far
bigger impact on sprint records than human improve-
An obsession with athletic pedigrees leads to a fad of
By converting skin cells into stem cells, then spraying ments. Humans are not actually faster (well, one is). We
genetic screening at early ages, whereby the vast
stem cells onto natural collagen scaffolds, we have just seem faster thanks to the track.
majority of children are told they have no chance at
already regrown ears, tracheas, and bladders and
a professional, collegiate, or scholastic sports career
successfully transplanted them back into humans. To In the same way, special contact lenses already give
before they even hit kindergarten. Eventually this
restate: this is not the future. Its already happening. baseball players 20/8 eyesight improving their batting
categorical denial of hope becomes socially unaccept-
averages significantly. Football receivers gloves are so
able. Its also bad for business; todays kids are
sticky they turn the game into a magic show. Speed-
tomorrows fans.
skating ice is demineralized and sprayed on, a single mist

Through technologies emerging today flexible screens,
motion controls, haptic or tactile technology, smart
glasses, virtual and augmented reality the merging of
real and projected worlds will produce a seamless experi- ANDREI SEVERNY
DIGITAL ARTIST AND
ence, a complete illusion. We are just starting to learn

FILMMAKER
and understand how to control, manipulate and share

visual and aural perceptions. The possibilities are vast.
THE THIRD VENUE

As more fans are priced out of attending live sporting events, where will 10-YEAR PROJECTION TODAYS THIRD VENUES
they turn? Third venues will emerge as the go-to spaces to experience the by price segmentation
newest and most exhilarating sports entertainment technology. Augmented
10%
The top 10% of income bracket Sports bars
reality, interactive table top technology, holographic replays, and 3-D displays still attend games in person,
Jumbotron simulcasts
will make their first public appearances in the 21st-centurys family-friendly spending $700-$1,000 per family.
40%
Movie theater simulcasts in XD
version of sports bars. Thanks to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, fans will The middle 40%
bring real-time sports betting to third venues without traditional licensing issues. experience the game at a
third venue, where they
Food truck parks
outfitted with high-definition screens
As driverless cars proliferate, alcohol consumption will triple. spend $100-$200.
50%
Pavilions
in the shadow of stadiums showing the game
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS The bottom 50%
watch at home.
01 02
Major advances in entertainment technology will initially be too Fans crave a shared sports experience with equally
expensive for widespread home-entertainment adoption. passionate fans.

As more fans are priced out of attending live sporting events, where will
they turn?
The meteoric rise of e-sports will accelerate third venue

development. This August, thousands of Dota 2 players and
fans who couldn't get tickets to The International, convened to
watch the tournament live at "pubstomps" in sports bars and
Internet cafes across the globe.
THE THIRD VENUE

In all likelihood, the first time you saw a widescreen HD Small-town divas can already go to their local movie Sphere of Influence
television was in the original kind of third venue: the theater to watch an Ultra HD simulcast of the Metropolitan
COMING SOON TO A THIRD VENUE Barco Escape surrounds the viewer with a
sports bar. Recent history suggests that breakthrough Opera happening in New York City. Sports bar/cinema NEAR YOU 270-degree view.
entertainment technology rarely appears in the home hybrids hosting sporting events in theater-sized venues
first. Cinema, video games, IMAX, and 3D all were arent far off. Imagine walking in and feeling just like Location-based fan competition
launched at third venues public spaces that are neither youre in a stadium luxury suite, watching the game Apps like Spogo and BarBets already facilitate fantasy
the home nor the stadium. The new immersive viewing through the skybox glass. Used as public and private play in real time not against anonymous strangers
technology on the horizon will also appear first in these venues, third venues allow an incredibly immersive around the country but against other people in the
spaces. As 360-degree video becomes more embedded in sporting atmosphere including the buzz of an same place as you. The game within the game
architecture, walking into the sports bar of the future will excited crowd. becomes an in-person experience. As Bitcoin gains
feel not just like walking into a stadium but like walking increased acceptance and usage, it will turn a third
onto the field. Third venues will be the first place youll be able to see venue into something unique and interactive.
life-sized replays up close and in fully realized 3D. The Family-friendly atmosphere
What these third venues offer: the best elements of the first generation of these displays wont be true holograms While bars are for adults, the third venues will trans-
stadium atmosphere, more creature comforts than the (you wont be able to view them from all sides), but they form into places where youd really think of bringing
stadium, and fellow fans to celebrate with the perfect will still appear fully 3D to the viewer. Initially this technol- your family, the same way Las Vegas has transformed
integration of live and digital moments. This modular ogy will be used to enliven pre-and post-game interviews. from an adult getaway into a family tourism magnet.
experience can be consumed a la carte to fit the As the technology advances, it will bring life-sized instant Whether its a a sliding board built into the wall, or a
personalized fan experience. replays into sports bars and luxury lounges. virtual roller coaster booth that makes youngsters
shriek, innovative ways of making kids
The big driver of the third venue is customer segmentation: feel welcome will emerge.
only the top 10% income bracket of fans can routinely Sensory Upgrade
attend games live. The top 10% keep getting richer at a 4DX adds motion, smell, wind, and other sensations
3-5% annual rate, so ticket prices climb 3-5% consistently to watching video.
until they are out of reach of the rest of the fans who
watch on TV. The third venue is a way to get a family of
four to spend an amount between the cost of attending
the game ($500 to $1,000) and nothing (watching on TV).
Perhaps at the third venue they eat and drink and get
some of the feeling of having a live audience around them,
while spending $60-$200, of which leagues get a cut.

How will brands adapt to rapidly evolving sports content and distribution formats? DISRUPTION OPPORTUNITY
During Commercials, Fans Are Texting Their Friends Multitasking consumers are not ignoring the
SCENARIO 1 > Brands move beyond sponsorships and advertising by develop- Commercial break advertising during sports loses its ads counterintuitively, they actually have
ingand owningnew sports, championships, and leagues. The Red Bull ap- effectiveness because every viewer on the couch can just better recall of the ads they view than those
whip out their phone and get busy, ignoring the ad. More who are only viewing the event, according to
proach to brand-backed sports becomes the rule rather than the exception. Its than 58% of those viewing a sporting event on television Paul Verna, eMarketer Senior Analyst.
not just your brands name on the stadiumthe sport itself embodies your brand. are already using mobile devices concurrently.
SCENARIO 2 > Large, hard-to-quantify sports sponsorships become a thing DISRUPTION OPPORTUNITY
of the past as brands redirect their marketing budgets to personalized, micro- Who Owns the Ball Makes the Rules The more the landscape fragments, the greater
More sponsors follow the Red Bull model, creating and owning the natural urge for a shared communal
targeted digital ad campaigns with an audience of one and an instantly verifiable original sporting events, diverting sports marketing dollars experience. Major sports will always retain
return on investment. Its not about the most eyeballs but the right ones. from traditional leagues. Broadcasters can play this game too: their ability to bring people together.
ESPN created and owns X-Games. Others will follow.
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS DISRUPTION OPPORTUNITY

Loss of Control Controversy is no longer taboo. Certain kinds
01 02 Advertisers control every frame of a television commercial of controversy are actually healthy and
Big Data: analytics, targeting Explosion of new content-production options (GoPro, YouTube, Instagram, it plays exactly as they shot and edited it. Sponsors lose sustain the conversation that engages fans
and personalization Periscope, etc.) giving brands new sports-related avenues to reach some control to the improvisation factor of an actual game; such as a controversial call by an umpire,
consumers, and consumers new, non-sponsored channels of their own they cant totally control what a sponsored athlete might do or a quarterback controversy, or the debate
or say. But control is completely relinquished on social over a player trade. These kinds of controver-
media. Word-of-mouth publicity is free exposure and can sies dont drive fans away, they suck fans in.
have massive reach, but nobody can control the message.
SPONSORSHIP In 20 to 30 years, everyone will look like Red Bull.
+ ADVERTISING
Red Bull is now the event. ESPN started this with
X-Games, and its the way things are going to go. All
DR. DAVID K. STOTLAR
PROFESSOR, SCHOOL OF
major leagues and sports will have proprietary net-
works. For each one, youre going to log in to watch
SPORT AND EXERCISE
SCIENCE,
UNIVERSITY OF
NORTHERN COLORADO
what you want to watch and buy it directly from the
MEDIA TYPE DEFINITION EXAMPLES THE ROLE THREATS BENEFITS
supplier. Embedded in that are the sponsorships and
PAID Traditional
advertising
-Television, radio,
print advertising
-Brand pays to
leverage
-Declining response
from savvy consumers
-Maximizes
potential eyeballs product mentions and everything else that a sports
(The old way) -Stadium rights connection with -Getting above the noise -Total control of
-Display league or in an increasingly content property needs to monetize the event.
advertising franchises cluttered media -Total control of
marketplace timing
OWNED Brand controls -Red Bull TV -Create direct -Potential to be -Strong control
the content -Regional sports relationship perceived as inauthentic -Versatility
(For those with
24 3B
and the channel networks owned between -Low-quality execution -Directly targets
the resources) by teams franchise or -Slow to scale most passionate FACTOID miles FACTOID
-Official Twitter and league and fans fans over Earth
In 2012, energy drink Red Bull Alongside the 2 billion smartphones
Facebook accounts 3 billion
40
sponsored Felix Baumgartners already in operation, 3 billion more new
supersonic freefall from 24 miles smartphone users will come online in smartphones
EARNED Word-of-mouth: -Viral video -Allows fans to -Little control of -Most credible over Earth. Red Bulls live video feed
TV channels
event coverage developing countries in the next five years
when consumers -Social media share informa- message by brand and authentic
(The Holy Grail) of the event was broadcast by 40 alone. Brand sponsors have an enormous
1B
become the not through tion and owners -Low cost
television networks on 130 stations opportunity to rush into developing
channel official channels reactions that -Can be brand negative
in 50 countriesgarnering an 1 billion markets such as Brazil, Russia, India,
-Word of mouth are meaningful -Scandals live on
audience of over 1 billion people. # of viewers China, and the Middle East.
to them forever

How will brands adapt to rapidly evolving sports content and distribution formats?
One of the biggest challenges for marketers is fragmentation
not just in terms of the proliferation of brands, but also in terms of
consumer interests. Twenty years ago, you could advertise on the
networks; sponsor the four big sports; get involved with a few
big-name concert tours and rest assured that your brand message
was being delivered. Now, you have dozens of cable channels with
SPONSORSHIP programming that draws passionate followers; original programming

that lives only online; emerging sports and local sports opportunities;
a music landscape that is much more diverse; the impact of social
+ ADVERTISING media; and new trends and passions emerging every day.
ANDY ENGLAND
FORMER CHIEF MARKETING OFFICER OF MILLERCOORS
Sports has never had it better; its the one thing on television THE RISE OF ATHLETE & 1-5 YEAR FUTURE The big spenders on sports sponsorships are no longer just
that hasnt been disrupted by DVR technology. People still the corporations. Theyre emerging nations. Following the
watch sports live, so they dont skip through the commer-
TEAM CROWDFUNDING OVERCROWDING & FRAGMENTATION early lead of Qatar and Azerbaijan, developing nations realize
cials. This simple truth has drastically driven up the value of sports sponsorship is the way to stand out in their region and
Never has it been easier for the local school team to raise Brands messages get lost in a blizzard of marketing. Logos
sports programming. In an increasingly fragmented media to be seen as modern, egalitarian, and tourist-friendly. Their
the funds online to get to that tournament across the on the outfield fence or the hood of a stock car become
environment, sports are the one thing that still grabs the real goal here is gaining the stature to join intercontinental
country. But this phenomenon is much larger, and its indistinguishable due to overcrowding. As advertising grows
attention of a widespread audience. trade zones like the European Union, which opens up
going to potentially crowd out traditional sponsors along more ubiquitous, the traditional corporate graffiti becomes tourism, reduces interest rates they pay on government debt,
two vectors: increasingly invisible. Fans attention is divided among a
THE CONVERSION FROM THE myriad of screens and entertainment options.
and attracts further capital for modern infrastructure. Sports
sponsorship becomes an important nation-building tool.
PLANNED TO THE IMPROVISED Subsidization of costs
The US Ski & Snowboarding Associations RallyMe site Athletes continue to fight their teams and their leagues over
Fans so crave authenticity that staged interactions are currently helps skiers get to the world championships with who their sponsor is. (See: Russell Wilson & Beats audio
10-25 YEAR
seen as stiff, and fail to get traction. The sponsorship game a network of individual donors who contribute to individual vs. the NFL.) Scuffles over exposure become common. Fans
is going to have to be played like sports themselves athletes training budgets. The athletes send their patrons easily see through inauthentic sponsor deals. To cope with All the middlemen begin to disappear, replaced by friction-
improvised instantaneously rather than packaged and personal thank-yous via email or social media. Look for these challenges, brands seek to become part of the event less technology (descended from Google AdWords) that
planned. The winners in the viral social media space more online one-to-one sports sponsorship marketplaces itself, owning their original athletic endeavors especially reaches sports fans more effectively for less. Everyone
where consumers become broadcasters are those who to emerge. in the exploding new markets like the Middle East. On and between the fans and the athletes is in jeopardy. This list
will be able to respond quickly to new events and make the off the field, the line between sport and sponsor is blurring. of vulnerable targets includes advertising agencies, broad-
most of what are, essentially, broken plays. Participation in future revenue Brands want to give fans experiences they cant buy, or casters, journalists, and even leagues themselves. Every
Star athletes can take on investors. Fantex sells real securi- ignore such as United Airlines giving its most frequent smartphone is a broadcast-grade camera; every athlete
Example: A tornado leveled large parts of an Oklahoma City ties linked to the earnings generated by a pro athletes fliers batting practice at Yankee Stadium. has her own syndicate of sponsors. Feeling held back by
suburb. Farmers Insurance tapped golfer Rickie Fowler to brand. Athletes get money up front in exchange for a share shared revenue agreements, superbrand teams with global
use social media to reach out to people in his home state. of future income; San Francisco 49ers tight end Vernon Davis audiences ditch their leagues to barnstorm against interna-
Farmers identified a boy who saved his dogs from the storm raised $4 million. The potential is there to create a futures
5-10 YEAR tional competition.
but lost his golf clubs; Fowler met with the boy and gave him market for young amateur athletes, to remove obstacles that PERSONALIZATION & NATION BUILDING
a new set of clubs. Farmers tied that back to an appearance keep them from maximizing their athletic potential.
by the companys CEO in the area signing claims. We used The era of the official and exclusive sponsor ends.
the celebrity of Rickie bridging to what it is we do, said Tapping proprietary datasets about their fans, corporations
Chuck Browning, head of sponsorships, events, and corpo- focus on personalizing the perfect marketing/content mix for
rate giving for Farmers. millions of audiences of one over tailored on-demand
mobile device streams.

As sports access goes global, which teams in which sports will win the
Some of the same dynamics that drive block-
race to be worldwide superbrands? By the end of the next decade, sports begins buster bets on creative content also foster
to reach its full potential in the global market, and the top franchises in soccer, investments in superstars....Growing interna-
basketball, and baseball reach valuations over $10 billion. The differential between tional markets in film, television, and other
franchises that cash in and those that get left out will become more extreme. Soccer, media are driving an increased focus on a
which is the dominant global sport, thrives despite this disparity between the winners
select few superstars with global appeal. In
and losers: the top five Premier League teams are approaching household-name
status in the United States. Few Americans have heard of the bottom 15. The expo- sports, the expanding role of television and
sure of widespread corruption in the operations of FIFA will result in far-reaching other media as additional sources of revenue
reforms that, once complete, will accelerate the sports growth. But while those (as opposed to ticket sales only ) has signifi-
reforms are being made, other sports looking to expand their global footprint have cantly increased the income earned by the
an opportunity to appeal to disenchanted fans around the world. top-performing teams and sometimes just
the most star-studded teams.
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS ANITA ELBERSE
LINCOLN FILENE PROFESSOR OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
01
AT THE HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL
AUTHOR, BLOCKBUSTERS: HIT-MAKING, RISK-TAKING, AND
THE BIG BUSINESS OF ENTERTAINMENT
Three billion new potential sports fans are expected to come online via smartphone by 2020.
TEAMS + LEAGUES
DISRUPTION OPPORTUNITY
Winners Take All A full array of financial controls from salary
Leagues that pit the few haves against the many caps to revenue-sharing to Financial Fair Play
have-nots will render too many games meaningless. successfully fine-tune competitive balance to
The standings will lack the drama that attracts fans. keep things interesting.
THE VALUE OF GLOBAL INTEREST DISRUPTION OPPORTUNITY

Global television live audience size: Must-See TV Time zones around the globe create significant
Television audiences prefer to see the top teams at the protection. European basketball fans might want
highest level. Domestic leagues may lose their viewers to to watch the NBA rather than the Euroleague, but
1B
global superstars. few Europeans are awake at 2 a.m. to watch.
2014 World Cup Final
1 billion viewers
Asia Sports entertainment is a luxury business,
900m
2012 London Olympics Asia is the new battleground for fans, and inevitably Asian and the Asian markets are happy to import
Opening Ceremony sports franchises will win on their home turf. their bling.
900 million viewers
500m
Manchester United vs. Liverpool
2014 regular season
500 million viewers U.S. SPORTS: BIGGEST CHALLENGES TO GLOBAL GROWTH
360m 2014 Champions League Final

360 million viewers Few outside North
America play it or
Weaker NBA teams
stay on the bottom
Relating to a younger
audience that wants
Converting World
Cup interest into
Needs to be a better
television experience
watch it. too long; 75% of the the game to move domestic league the puck is hard to
160m
teams are irrelevant more quickly with interest. follow, and viewers
2014 NFL Super Bowl come playoff time. more action. cant follow the line
160 million viewers changes.

As sports access goes global, which teams in which sports will win the race
to be worldwide superbrands?
Will financial inequality within leagues destroy competitive balance?

Not necessarily. It all depends on the upset frequency of the sport.
The drama created by uncertainty provides a compelling reason to
TEAMS + LEAGUES watch and attend the games. Pro football has the lowest upset
frequency of any major sport so the NFL needs its salary cap
to engineer parity and stoke the drama. Meanwhile, Major League
Baseball has a high upset frequency; despite financial inequality,
the uncertainty of who will win is still compelling.
THE VECTORS OF GLOBAL BRAND Sell team values 1-5 YEAR FUTURE > Scoring in soccer becomes so rare that the games
> Seattle embraced grunge music, then premium coffee, appeal plummets, creating an opportunity for other sports
BUILDING then made same-sex marriage and pot legal. So the city
THE TINKERING PHASE
to expand into soccers territory, winning over fans with
that loves being alternative is a perfect fit for the alterna- more scoring and action.
Yes, winning drives global recognition. (With 11 champion- Globalization continues to happen more slowly than
tive sport, soccer. Sounders FC attendance has broken all
ships, the Lakers are by far the most popular basketball expected. During its exhibition season, the NBA champion
US records. > Taking advantage of genomic screening or medical
team in the world.) But if youre not hoisting trophies plays in a one-week Club World Championship against the
manipulation, China starts cranking out superathletes who
regularly, how can you grow your audience worldwide? top teams of Europe. The NHL All-Star Game is played in
> Working-class teams with lunchpail players may seem are faster and stronger than athletes in the rest of the world.
Russia. London and Mexico City are granted NFL franchises
less relevant in an era when fewer workers are blue collar. (See The Athlete on page 16.)
Hire international players but not to start play until 2028.
But hiring hardworking players and emphasizing solidarity
Asian baseball stars in the MLB like Masahiro Tanaka and Yu
Darvish generate fan interest back home. Twenty-six percent
and gritty defense still fits historic working-class cities
5-10 YEAR 10-25 YEAR
even abroad, from Newcastle to Marseille to Dortmund
of the players in the NHL are from outside North America,
to Turin. THE FIRST DISRUPTION GLOBAL CONSOLIDATION
which drives interest in the league across Northern Europe.
The question is, which American sports league will move the Intercontinental or global leagues fully develop. Even though
Pimp the stars Some rules standardize internationally Japanese baseball
most quickly to integrate players from Asia, Europe and any one teams players might be from many countries, the
Even if his team has a losing record, a single star player can adopts the larger MLB ball, while European basketball
South America? games take on that nation-vs.-nation excitement we know
help a team get global recognition. Star players are a vector adopts NBA rules. These have a similar effect to standardiz-
from the Olympics and World Cup. Extensive alliances are
by which small-market teams and upstart leagues (like ing the width of rail lines and the size of shipping containers
Market rivalries created to minimize business risk and control player
Major League Soccer) can gain international renown. Stars it makes global player movement possible. The NFL opens
Everywhere in the world, people understand the significance development and movement to the superteams. Eventually,
who cross borders have an elevated global appeal. in London and Mexico, but by the time it finally happens, its
of rivalries. These monumental matches become a war of these coalesce across sports; superclubs in major global
almost anticlimactic. Then, an unexpected, seminal disrup-
ideas, history, and lifestyle. Lakers vs.Celtics. Red Sox vs. cities have pro teams in each viable sport.
Be larger than life tive event happens. It could be any number of things. But it
Yankees. Bruins vs. Canadiens. Barcelona vs. Real Madrid.
In the cosmopolitan cities, the lifestyle of celebrity culture creates a significant global shift in professional sports.
All Blacks vs. Springboks in rugby. India vs.Pakistan in cricket.
can be embraced as an escape from it all. Players and Some possibilities:
Teams battle for supremacy of their state, their metropolitan
owners big personalities and opulent lifestyles can be
area, their country. Since everyone can relate, these matchups
highlighted to draw the fans whose appetite for the rich > During a future labor contract strike, NBA players stay
make sense to even casual fans across the oceans.
and famous is endless. sharp playing in China, earning double what theyd make
here; many end up staying, splitting the NBAs talent pool.
Tour and tour some more
The MLB has hosted regular season games in Japan, Mexico,
> To prevent brain trauma, NFL rules on tackling change
Puerto Rico, and Australia. The NFL goes to London.
radically, prompting an increasing number of rugby stars to
European soccer tours the US in the summer. Exhibition
make the transition to American football. The NFLs
games and international friendlies go a long way
popularity booms in Oceania and Europe.
especially if a team makes the trip several years in a row.

Our definition of sports will change as video and real-life play converge. DISRUPTION OPPORTUNITY
The Dallas Cowboys AT&T Stadium will sell out, for an entire week (at an The Celebrity Gamer As videogames soar in popularity, The best play for league franchises: Get closer to
gamers themselves are becoming stars and gathering the gamer community. Gamers play as their
average ticket price over $100) as fans pack in to watch on the Diamond Vision fans by the tens of thousands. Prize money and viewer- favorite athletes, and athletes become fans of
not a football team but teenagers playing the war game League of Legends 5, set ship for game tournaments have grown astronomically the best gamers even to the point of recruiting
in recent years. Just this year, the Season 4 Finals of top players to use their avatars. By embracing
in the fantasy land of Azeroth. League of Legends sold out 40,000 seats in the Seoul the gaming experience, pro sports leagues stand
World Cup Stadium Asias largest soccer stadium. As to foster more allegiance to their league, team,
e-sports increase in popularity and realism, celebrity and players.
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS gamers will challenge physical sports stars for fans
adulation and screen time.
01 02
E-sports competitions are big business, with prize pools
topping $10 million at a single tournament.
Massive popularity of watching videogames
online as entertainment.
Competition for the Most Finite Resource: Time Despite increasing time spent on video games,
According to recent figures by the ESRB (Entertainment gamer households are more tuned into sports
Software Rating Board), 67% of households play video on TV than ever. In what appears to be a virtuous
games, and the average gamer is 34 years old. With cycle, traditional sports are actually benefiting
Nielsen reporting that the biggest segment of sports from the growing sports game market. The large
viewers are essentially the same demographic, video American turnout for last summers World Cup
games could chip away at the traditional sports has been partly attributed to popularity driven
revenue stream. by the Electronic Arts FIFA game franchise.
Fans Want to Control the Action Traditional sports Real-world leagues should accelerate integra-
viewership may lose its pull as a generation raised tion with their fantasy sports alter egos. TV
E-SPORTS +
on gaming seeks more interactive entertainment. As viewership among fantasy fans is double that of
metrics and simulation modeling become more non-fantasy fans, making it a perfect complement
available to the public, fans will increasingly want to TV broadcast. The now multibillion dollar
to run the teams themselves. industry has grown by 10 million fans since 2010,
reaching an estimated audience of 41 million in
FANTASY SPORTS
North America. Companies like FanDuel are
lowering the time and money investment for
fantasy, making it easier for casual fans to
participate and increasing overall engagement
with their sport.
PEAK VIEWERSHIP
495,000 565,000 635,000 On Amazons $970 million acquisition of e-sports

CNN E! MSNBC streaming network Twitch: "It's no longer just want-
ing to see how someone defeated the boss on Level 5.
773,000 775,000
MTV TWITCH
It's having that social experience and the comrade-
ship of fellow gamers.
JAMES MCQUIVEY
AUTHOR
DIGITAL DISRUPTION
UNLEASHING THE NEXT
WAVE OF INNOVATION

Our definition of sports will change as video and real-life play converge.
E-SPORTS +
THE SUPER BOWL OF E-SPORTS
Stats from The International, the annual Dota 2 videogame world championship
24 minutes $18 million $6.6 million

FANTASY SPORTS Time elapsed before all tickets
for the event at Seattle's
17,000-seat KeyArena sold out
Total prize money for the tournament Amount split among five members of the
winning team, Evil Geniuses
Last year, Robert Morris University in Illinois offered 45 specific movement that depends on weight, momentum, and ecosystem will emerge, including coaches, high school
athletic scholarships to League of Legends videogame center of gravity. Even clothing stretches, billows, and affects and college teams, ranked amateurs, farm clubs, semipro
players. Yes, athletic scholarships for joystick jockeys. It a player just as it would in real life. and full-time professional players. As with sports, scouts
turns out that when gamers stop playing against the will evaluate and offer contracts to younger and younger
computer and instead play against other real people, video players.
games take on the human drama of sports. E-sports are
here to stay. The biggest metric were seeing 5-10 YEAR
One challenge for the sports industry: making sure kids keep
is that TV viewership is extremely Its no longer about thumbs hitting controller buttons.
playing sports titles rather than other genres. One leg up: high among fantasy sports fans. Game-play sensors descended from the Wii and Micro-
Sports are a universal language, easy to get grounded in and
understand. Drop into a basketball videogame for the first Fantasy sports fans consume soft Kinect make handheld controllers a quaint memory.
A language of game control involving every limb and
time, and you intuitively have a sense of what to do get the more than double the TV than facial expression emerges, physical shorthand for larger
ball in the hoop, or go for a rebound. Drop into League of
Legends, and the average rookie would be totally lost. This that of non-fantasy sports fans. movements in the video sport.
is sports massive initial advantage which it needs to Ten years ago networks were 10-25 YEAR
press forward on immediately while this market emerges.
sneering at fantasy sports; now
Remote and in-person gameplay will be all but indistin-
Game technology is advancing beyond the current realm of
recreation into player training, improvement, and compre-
theyre catering to us. guishable thanks to the combination of tactile feedback
hensive metric feedback. NASCAR is out to an early lead,
PAUL CHARCHIAN interfaces with virtual and augmented reality. As offline
PRESIDENT, FANTASY SPORTS TRADE ASSOCIATION
Videogames sports and online sports adapt to players locations and
using their racing simulator iRace not just to give fans their
most realistic chance at driving a stock car, but also to abilities, participation in sports a definition that now
train professionals including motorsports legend Dale implicitly includes e-sports will soar to include a higher
Earnhardt Jr. percentage of humanity than at any other time.
1-5 YEAR FUTURE
Industry leader EA Sports has consistently advanced the
in-home stadium experience. Soccer title FIFA 15 bathes
gamers in authentic stadium cheers, chants, and reactions
18 m 23 m 28 m Fans will find it increasingly easy to play against their idols.
Not only will individual gamers become famous, but teams
2008 2013 2018 leagues, and franchises will also coalesce. EA has invested
each soundscape unique to one of the 20 Premier League
stadiums. Ignite, EAs new game engine, features player- Average minutes per day spent playing videogames per capita, heavily in FIFA Pro Clubs, which allow for up to 11 players
United States on one team to face off against opponents online. A talent

Technology is radically changing the relationship between fans and the teams WHOS FOLLOWING
they love. > The amount of content produced by fans uploading video streams Fans are looking past traditional media gatekeepers and directly to teams
and leagues to get their sports information.
and images of live games (from smartphones inside the arena) will regularly
exceed the amount generated by official broadcasters and will be seen by Twitter followers sports league
more people. > Teams will designate fan-appointed ombudsmen to represent Circulation major newpapers Twitter followers & team accounts
fans in major team decisions. Fan-sourced input will be common. > Mobile 2,379,000 Wall Street Journal
5,570,000 38,800,000 NBA
devices and augmented-reality headgear will display the statistical advisability of
plays and audibles before they happen. Monday-morning quarterbacking will be 1,865,000 New York Times
14,700,000 32,615,000 NFL
real-time (i.e., live during the game), with crowdsourced polling generating
play-calling recommendations (Give it to Marshawn Lynch!) faster than the 1,674,000 USA Today
1,410,000 23,400,000 UFC
coach on the field can get the real play into the huddle. 654,000 Los Angeles Times
1,200,000 18,914,000 MLB
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS 516,000 Daily News

278,000 14,000,000 NHL
01 02
The feedback loop of social media and the 24/7 news Mobile devices: The power of networked smartphones
501,000 New York Post
716,000 6,474,000 NASCAR
475,000 3,608,000
cycle have given fans unprecedented influence on team continues to accelerate in step with Moores Law, making
and league decisionmaking. every fan a one-person broadcast studio.
Washington Post
3,800,000 MLS
The balance of player, team, fans, and media has shifted. Fans no
longer just watch. They participate, analyze, critique, deconstruct,
fantasize and connect with their favorite players and teams in real
time. Thanks largely to digital innovation, being a sports fan has
never been so emotionally charged, or fun, as it is today. Over time
as fans have gotten more and more organized, the virtual monopolies
teams and leagues have enjoyed have been broken. You cant drown
out a crowd if you flagrantly do things that they dont believe in. Orga-
nizations have to be able to react a lot faster in this new world and
have an increased tolerance for mistakes and missteps. You have to
figure out your values and be true to them. Leagues and teams will
have to learn how to communicate with authenticity or be ignored.
KYLE BUNCH
GROUP DIRECTOR OF MOBILE
AND SOCIAL PLATFORMS
THE FAN
FOR DIGITAL AGENCY R/GA
THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE

For the forseeable future, fans will expect increasing access, increasing content, and connection anytime and on their terms.
The leagues and franchises that will lose in this new environment will be those that fight these new tides, attempting to serve
up games, highlights, and access to athletes only through certain channels that they control. The winners will be those
leagues and teams that embrace and partner with these new boisterous and unpredictable brand ambassadors.

Technology is radically changing the relationship between fans and the teams Everything about sports is participation If you treat your fans like customers
they love. and fan participation is critical. Its long enough, eventually they'll start
about engagement, giving the fan con- behaving that way, reducing their
trol, power and accessibility. That's irrational love for their team to a
what it means to be a fan. cool-headed, dollars-and-cents deci-
CHRISTINA MILLER
NBA DIGITAL GM AND SVP OF STRATEGY
sion to buy tickets or not, with no more
emotional investment than deciding
whether to go to the movies or buy
THE FAN
new tires.
JOHN BACON
AUTHOR OF FOURTH AND LONG: THE FIGHT FOR THE SOUL OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL
NO LONGER JUST A FACE take control of the conversation, effectively becoming a 1-5 YEAR FUTURE from fans as well as complex algorithms that predict fan
major media entity in their own right. Teams, leagues, and reaction. Fantasy sports become so widespread and legiti-
IN THE CROWD sponsors who fail to respond to activist fan movements risk mized that private quant jocks are consulted or hired by
Fans become an ever more powerful force in breaking news
major damage to ticket sales and brand equity. and creating consensus with little deference to traditional franchises when making trades or drafts. The role of the
Being a fan is no longer just about watching and cheering.
sources of information like sports journalists or official sports scout is taken over by fan-generated video and data
Empowered by social media, fans now expect an unprece-
dented level of access to players, coaches, and owners. What FANS WONT BE IGNORED commentators. Teams and leagues have to become increas- combined with advanced artificial intelligence. Emboldened
ingly responsive to what University of Kansas Assistant by their new inclusive role, fans become more passionate
is more, they expect to be part of decisions that were once
Professor Jordan Bass calls forced crowdsourcing of critical about their teams.
made behind closed doors. > Scottish Ranger Union fans hired an analyst to examine
the financials of the organizations merchandise deal to decisions like whether to fire a player or coach after a
scandal. [Teams] just cant control the message on their own Using crowdsourcing as a method to incorporate [the fans]
Fans have increasingly used their collective power to discover that little profit was benefiting the club. They
anymore, said Bass. There are too many competing voices. into internal decision-making processes will enhance an
influence leagues and franchises. With access to myriad organized an effective boycott to express their displeasure.
[Fans] see the ability to become a media star by breaking organizations engagement with its core demographics,
Twitter feeds and other sources of information, fans not only > The NBA narrowly headed off a fan (and player) boycott
stories. I think one of the biggest challenges for the next five according to Irving Rein, professor of communications at
have more power but more potential points of conflict and of the Clippers by banning Donald Sterling prior to game 5
years or more is how to deal with these situations in an Northwestern University and author of The Sports Strategist.
disgruntlement. What might set them on the warpath will of the 2014 playoffs.
immediate way. Because they are now included in strategic discussion,
become increasingly difficult to predict. A teams financial
> Multiple fan boycotts have been called to protest the audiences are more likely to purchase more tickets,
decisions, broadcast blackouts, rule changes, trades, or
continued use of the Redskins team name and logo. merchandise and sponsorships.
off-field behavior may spark outrage. Social media can
Boycotts have even been called for FedEx, which owns
5-10 YEAR
rekindle and give new life to long-simmering disputes, like
the controversy around the Redskins name and logo. Or the
the naming rights to the Redskins stadium.
Fans become a prime source of broadcast video production.
SPOTLIGHT: SUPERFANS NOW WITH
backlash can happen nearly instantaneously. If a star player > In Italy, Lazio soccer supporters boycotted a home No matter how many professional cameramen are employed, SOCIAL MEDIA SUPERPOWERS
gets in an altercation at an after-hours nightclub, fans will be match against Atalanta in protest of President Claudio there is almost always a fan who is closer to the action. With
discussing and building consensus about the incident before Lotitos running of the club after the sale of playmaker the increasing adoption of high-quality wearable video The most outrageous fans have, over the years, become well
the sun rises the next day. Anderson Hernanes to Inter Milan and a series of bad devices, broadcasters increasingly turn to fan-recorded known or even famous. Clipper Darrell, the Broncos Barrel
outings. Only 2,000 tickets were sold in a venue that has moments to give energy and color to the program. Want to Man, The Canucks Green Men, and the Redskins Hogettes
How will the rapidly increasing power wielded by a capacity of 82,000. know whether that fan in the bleachers interfered with the are part of a long tradition of superfans. Their reward: a few
connected fans change the business of sports? > Turkish fans demonstrated and boycotted soccer home run ball? Just tap into that very fans video feed to share seconds on TV and some pats on the back.
Traditionally, fans counted on sportswriters, talk radio hosts, matches after authorities introduced a new ticketing system. the answer. There are apps for that.
and TV commentators to lead the conversation about their Todays most important superfans arent always big on
> Fans launched the Twitter hashtags #boycottNFL and
favorite teams. The emerging generation of fans armed outlandish costumes and facepaint, but when they talk, teams
with powerful media devices and always-on connectivity, and
#FireGoodell after recent accusations of domestic violence 10-25 YEAR listen. One example: Virginia schoolteacher Anthony Young,
surfaced against prominent players.
social media platforms with massive reach have started to who runs the Twitter account @NFLRT, NFL Retweet,
Fans are officially given a seat at the table. Decisions both on curates the most hard-hitting and outrageous NFL-related
and off the field are made with near-instantaneous input tweets and boasts a grassroots followership of 132,000.

At what point should traditional sports franchises consider diversifying into GoPro is the fun equalizer. On video, it is no longer a competition
this booming new market? By 2020, extreme sports will challenge profes- for who is fastest or biggest but for who is having the most fun.
sional and collegiate team sports for the title of most-watched category of
GoPro enables a platform for people to do things that are cooler
sports content. With 100 hours of GoPro video currently being uploaded to
YouTube every minute of every day, and sales of action cameras growing nearly than established sports allow. Collectively, the extreme sports
50% annually and projected to hit 9 million in 2018, the extreme sports jugger- fanbase is definitely as big as any national teams fanbase.
naut looks unstoppable. SAUL GRIFFITH
MACARTHUR FELLOWSHIP
GENIUS GRANT RECIPIENT
MIT MEDIA LAB PH.D., CO-FOUNDER OF
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS OTHERLAB, MAKANI POWER, OPTIOPIA,
POTENCO, INSTRUCTABLES,
HOWTOONS, AND SQUID LABS
01 02 03
Personal sports media Competitive feedback Exoskeleton technology
production loops
DANGER IS MY MIDDLE NAME

Sport Micromort
Skiing / snowboarding 0.7 per day
Marathon running 8 per run
EXTREME +
Scuba diving 10 per dive
Base jumping 430 per jump
Climbing Everest 39427 per ascent
ADVENTURE
All causes of death in the US 22 per day
1 micromort = 1 in a million chance of death
SPORTS
PEAK-PERFORMANCE PROGRESSION
Degrees rotated Platform Diving Skiing Snowboarding Skateboarding
2x
720 1904 1999 1985
2.5x
900 1999
3x
1080 2002 2012
4.5x
1620 2004 2011 2009
5x
1800 2014

At what point should traditional sports franchises consider diversifying into this ATHLETE MOTIVATIONS
booming new market? Traditional Sports Extreme + Adventure Sports

Improving over an incremental record Innovating and pioneering expanding and
(100m dash) creating new fields of competition
EXTREME +
Winning the iconic competition Creating an iconic and transcendent moment
(Super Bowl) through extreme expression of sport
Extrinsically motivated by the nature Self-determined and intrinsically
of organized competition and coaches motivated
ADVENTURE
SPORTS
Fueled by easy recording and upload technology like GoPro EXOSKELETON TECH rode the massive Jaws surf break going to the left long 5-10 YEAR
paired with YouTube and over-the-top broadcasters considered too dangerous even for tow-in surfers. He rode it
interest, participation, and performance levels in action safely and escaped the inside rocks on the JetSurf board.
Exoskeletons will be implemented at first for their incredible Let the robot try it firstIn an effort to keep progressing
sports are soaring. Today theyre a blip on the screen
enhancement of athlete protection, followed by motorized extreme and emerging sports, athletes and technologists
compared to the big business of professional sports, but
participation in action and adventure sports has surpassed
advances that increase strength and speed. EXAMPLES OF THE EMERGENCE OF team up to make their daily experiments just a bit safer.
conventional sports at the recreational level. NEW ACTION SPORTS Imagine an athletic robot to demonstrate a big-air snow-
THREAT TO THE GROWTH OF boarding 1800-degree trick or a BASE jump equipped with
the latest wingsuit. Onboard cameras and sensors capture
And its not just online video driving that growth. San ACTION SPORTS Skydiving > outer-space diving
the forces like angular momentum, and physical cues like
Francisco-based Strava Inc. is the foremost example of the Triathlons > Tough Mudder obstacle races spotting the landing zone. It becomes a learning experience
competitive feedback loop underlying the explosion of Limited access Not on my wave
Extreme skiing > skiing with a parachute canopy for the athlete to see and feel how the trick can be executed.
action sports participation. Outdoor athletes track their > With the growth and popularity of sports like surfing,
performances via Stravas apps or their own biometric skiing, and snowboarding, access to the critical and finite
devices, then upload their results to Stravas database, resource good, uncrowded conditions is limited. 1-5 YEAR FUTURE 10-25 YEAR
which becomes a de facto book of records for every trail
> The best surf spots across the South Pacific are turning
run and every 100-mile route biked a standing, always-on More athletes and adventure teams make use of newly
into private resorts, such as the ones in the Mentawai Islands The Red Bull team faces off against the Mountain Dew team
challenge that drives performance levels higher daily. created sports zones in national wilderness areas under the
and Fiji. in the newly formed XSL - eXtreme Sports League. Individual
Bureau of Land Management. Self-maintaining, sustainable
athletes and small groups band together and compete
A group that includes owners of the Boston Celtics and San > In addition, when we consider climate change over the terrain parks open up. Extreme sports injuries diminish as
across the globe in a year-round cycle. Some of the competi-
Francisco 49ers recently placed a bet on the explosion of next decade, what sports will either cease to exist or be the use of robotic exoskeletons becomes the norm.
tions are in the same place, while others are held in dispa-
interest in action sports by investing in Street League forced to change location? Self-powered body suits not only increase performance but
rate skateparks the action is stitched together using
Skateboarding, a professional circuit headed by skater protect against debilitating injuries deep in the backcountry.
augmented reality, which provides a single viewing experi-
and MTV star Rob Dyrdek. Solution
ence. Social platforms for athletes, like todays Strava,
The endless, perfectly shaped wave is coming to inland
enable athletes to document and share their constant
Dozens of new sports will emerge. In 20 years, sports like communities and will open access to thousands of new
progressions. All of the competitions and video highlights
skysurfing will look as old-fashioned as the shot put. surfers. The WaveGarden was prototyped in central Spain, and
are served up on a NFL Red Zone-style stream of
Advances in exoskeletons, prosthetics, and, yes, rocket a full production facility opened in 2015 in North Wales, UK.
extreme highlights.
packs will herald a golden age of new sporting competitions.
Solution
Previously unrideable waves are being conquered with a
polarizing new technology, the jet-powered surfboard. In
November 2014, famous multi-sport Maui athlete Kai Lenny

How will innovation in payments technology and venue logistics change the way DISRUPTION OPPORTUNITY
Traditional middlemen in ticketing and payments Increasingly efficient and fraud-proof payment
fans experience sporting events? Dynamic pricing, micropayments, digital wal- ticket brokers and credit card networks, and eventually methods mean more of the value of sports tickets and
lets, virtual currencies, and frictionless transactions will transform the way that regulators and central banks face obsolescence. merchandise will remain with venue owners and fans.
fans spend and the way franchises profit. Artificial intelligence(AI) will enable
venues to offer increasingly compelling seating offerings. SCENARIO > Your Never in the history of the payments
favorite hockey teams arena offers tickets in a section populated exclusively (for
tonight at least) by 100 transplanted New Yorkers under 30 who attended ACC
industry has there been a time of such
schools. You can pay for your ticket and beers at the game with disruption and opportunity across
HockeyBucks, the leagues own digital currency. regions. Digital technologies will
upset the competitive order and the
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS
role that payments play both in the
JOHN HENRY CLIPPINGER
FOUNDER, BERKMAN CENTER FOR
INTERNET AND SOCIETY LAW LAB
01 02 03 operations of businesses and in the HARVARD UNIVERSITY;
RESEARCH SCIENTIST, MIT MEDIA LAB
Dynamic ticket pricing and Custom currencies built on Queue-management systems FOUNDER, ID3
seat assignment the blockchain technology
underlying Bitcoin
daily lives of consumers.
PAYMENTS +
TICKETING
THE INTERNET OF THINGS

With the evolution of location-based technologies, mobile payment systems, and a continual decrease in technology costs,
this concept of truly frictionless commerce is quickly becoming a reality. The Internet of Things is bringing Amazons
1-Click ordering experience to sports venues everywhere.
BITCOIN TRANSACTIONS PER DAY
2,000 April 2011 55,000 April 2013 108,000 April 2015

How will innovation in payments technology and venue logistics change the way
fans experience sporting events?
PAYMENTS +
TICKETING
INTELLIGENT TICKETING becomes ever more fluid, it will be the same way with your Digital wallet payments enable 1-5 YEAR FUTURE
favorite sports team or league.
our fans to engage and transact
Dynamic ticket pricing has already drastically expanded who Smartwatches and mobile devices using fingerprint
attends games. Fans can pay what they want, as often as
Fans will both buy and continuously earn affinity points
convertible into virtual currency. Theyll be able to wager
with us in a more fluid manner. technology become hugely popular for payments not
they want, sitting as close to the action as they can afford.
these points during games, earn more by promoting the There's a lot of friction at the because they save money but because theyre more
convenient and secure from fraud. This lays the ground-
The result is sold-out stadiums, with plenty of cheaper
tickets available and an overall revenue increase of 7%.
game on social media, and spend some on a better bat for
their video game star avatar.
sports arena battling traffic, work to move all tickets to digital form.
distributing tickets, waiting in

AI ticketing takes this one step further: You set your prefer- 5-10 YEAR
ences, but you dont actually know which seats you will get
Though it is the most high-profile digital currency to date,
Bitcoin is almost certainly NOT the payment technology
line. Payments is one of them.
until shortly before the game. The ticketing system will
maximize your desires for you. Because the new sales
most fans will end up using, at least not directly. Bitcoin You have to pull out your wallet, Paper tickets go away. Apple bypasses credit cards,
transactions take seven minutes, on average, to clear the establishing its own banking technology.
platforms (think Facebook) have much more detailed data
systems multi-party verification process. Nor is Bitcoin
deal with change or credit cards.
about you than old outlets, the experience represented by
your ticket can be customized in a variety of ways. Want to sit
optimized for individual micropayments (the legendary low One-click technologies minimize 10-25 YEAR
processing charges only materialize for large or aggregated
near Facebook friends? The system can do it. Want to send
transactions). Instead, the future lies in new layers of the friction. And were focused
35 employees to the game as a reward? They no longer have The end of the line: The only time fans will stop moving
to sit in the nosebleed section in order to sit together. Want to
payment processing technology built on top of Bitcoin on minimizing friction points is when theyre sitting in their seat or using the rest
essentially private currency networks. Between any two
be near other families? Want to go with the guys and actually
customers on these private networks, transferring money wherever we can. room. Lines disappear, and event attendance and
meet single women? The system can handle it all. All the revenues increase.
is instantaneous and free, or close to it. BEN GUMPERT
various reasons people have for wanting to attend the game CHIEF MARKETING OFFICER, SACRAMENTO KINGS
can be isolated, packaged, and priced according to demand. In the spring of 2014, the Kings became the first
The race is on to determine which of the new payment-
service providers will become the VHS of cryptocurrency professional sports franchise to accept Bitcoin as payment.
VIRTUAL CURRENCIES and which will become the Betamaxes. Currently, BitPay
and Coinbase are the early Visa and American Express of
Already, the total value of loyalty programs in the United the burgeoning Bitcoin processor industry.
States is a $165 billion annual virtual economy.
When you enter a casino, you dont spend cash. You trade
your cash for casino chips, and then you use the casino
chips. As the line between real currency and virtual currency

The relative wealth of the middle class is already shrinking, but automation DISRUPTION OPPORTUNITY
and robotics will further accelerate the decline. Who in the future will be Some futurists predict that by 2030 Near-term
over 2 billion jobs will disappear Income disparity trends may be suppressing the salaries of individuals
spending time and money experiencing sports, and how will their relationship thanks to automation. Driverless cars but most households that make up the middle class now have two earners.
with sports be different? will wipe out taxis and delivery vehicle Those two-income families are the ones who, for the near-term future, will
drivers, as well as staff for parking still have the money to buy millions of smartphones, pay for the bonus cable
SCENARIO 1 > Sports marketing evolves to focus more on women, making up lots, traffic courts, and traffic police
departments. Kiosks, smart vending
TV packages, and buy tickets to games. Teams and leagues that successfully
market to professional women will surge ahead of those that dont.
for the decline in middle-class wealth by successfully building the upper-middle machines, and scanners are
eliminating cashiers. Robots are Longer-term
-class professional female fanbase. Later, developed countries adopt basic replacing farm hands, fast-food With 3 billion new smartphone users coming online in the next five years,
income programs to offset the job displacement caused by widespread preparers, and soldiers. Teachers the most successful sports organizations will retool their branding and
will be lower paid as education gets marketing to create global audiences, learning how to thrive on making
automation of service jobs. disrupted by online courseware. less per fan from massively larger fanbases.
SCENARIO 2 > Sports teams and leagues fail to field affordable on-site
offerings for the bottom 90% of their fanbases earners, and live attendance
at games declines steeply. Teams and leagues looking to grow their female fanbases will have
to go beyond gimmicks like pink jerseys. It has to be based on
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS empathy and true engagement. Women care about family the
01 02 03 smarter leagues will be looking at ways that sports can bring fami-
Rapid innovation in robotics
and artificial intelligence
Growing wage disparity, increased
concentration of wealth
Three billion new potential sports fans
joining the global economy in the next
lies together. Women want positive role models for their daughters,
five years but networks are resistant to showing womens sports highlights.
Leagues that want more female fans should get people to capture
and share amazing plays by women on social media. There are so
many examples of women kicking ass in sports be the league
that helps them get it out there. And in a lot of cases, women
havent spent as much time with a sport as men have. So use
technology immersive virtual reality or augmented reality
to help women school up fast.
CARIN WATSON
MANAGING DIRECTOR,
CORPORATE INNOVATION
AND EVP, BUSINESS
FANBASE
OPERATIONS,
SINGULARITY UNIVERSITY
DECLINE OF THE MIDDLE CLASS TWO-INCOME FAMILIES
ECONOMICS
Share of the aggregate income per household income group Median income by family ($) 2012
55% 100K
MIDDLE 60%
50%
TOP 20%
50K
92K
45%
50K 42K
30K
40% 0K
1971 1979 1987 1995 2003 2011 married married single single
wife working wife home dad mom

Who in the future will be spending time and money experiencing sports, and how
will their relationship with sports be different?
Quite possibly, we could experience massive shifts in women's sports

consumption in the course of the next three to four decades.
ANDREI MARKOVITS
FANBASE
AUTHOR OF SPORTISTA
ECONOMICS
The per-capita income of the middle class as a whole is
steadily declining, and the dual-income approach is becom-
violence have also appeared on the scene. The cultural role
model for the avid female fan, however, is still a work in
of American men living more like migrant workers,
moving to remote regions to work in data centers or
I think its likely that the pace of
ing increasingly important. This makes the rise and inclusion progress. electric-car battery plants, wiring paychecks home to job automation will outstrip job
of the female sports fan critical to franchises and leagues.
A major issue keeping women (and therefore their families)
their families.
creation in the short term and
Women make up almost half the sports fan community but from being more involved in sports is their lack of free time. 10-25 YEAR cause a lot of unemployment and
spend far fewer hours on fan activities only watching Throughout the Industrial Revolution, technology saved underemployment. In the Industrial
sports one-third as much as men. effort, money, and time. Its poised to do the same for the Drones, kiosks, and robots further displace the low end of
family. It is already doing this in small ways (when is the the workforce. Revolution you could jump off of
Women make up last time you drove to the library to look something up?). any unskilled labor job, take some
> 47.2 % of Major League Soccer fans As technology gets smarter and more sophisticated, it will Fifty percent of the workforce lack a full-time job; now
> 46.5% of MLB fans increasingly take on the tasks that make our lives feel joining the gig economy, they work for short-term stints courses, learn some new skills,
> 43.2% of NFL fans
so busy. on discrete tasks whatever is still slightly too compli- and find a new, likely higher paying
cated for a robot to automate. They have less money but
> 40.8% of fans at NHL games
1-5 YEAR FUTURE more time. Basic income programs provide enough job. What's different this time is
> 37% of NBA fans resources for the most dedicated fans to save enough to that we now have AIs and machine
attend sporting events.
Purchasing power
Female fans become the free agents that sports leagues and learning algorithms that can repli-
teams vie for. Women no longer have to speak sports to
> Women purchase 46% of official NFL merchandise. join the club. Womens sports apparel takes up more shelf Technology provides women significantly more free time. cate many of the cognitive skills
> Women spend 80% of all sports apparel dollars and
control 60% of all money spent on mens clothing.
space than mens gear in every store. Its not just Spurs While women still make up a small minority of fantasy
sports players, and dont listen to endless hours of
these individuals would be pursu-
shirts in pink; we start to see Spurs logos on yoga pants
and womens sneakers. sports radio, they become a strong majority of live ing, and they can do it much faster.
Smaller time window game attendees, attending games with girlfriends
In many winning cases, we will see
> Women make up about one-third (34%) of the adult
audience for ESPN sporting event programs.
5-10 YEAR or family members socially.
people partnering with AI and
The huge numbers of women who grew up playing soccer robotic systems to deliver produc-
Recent years have seen increasing participation of women
in the presentation of sports. Women NBA referees, broad-
and basketball easily transition to being avid sports fans as tivity not possible with artificial
adults. More franchises establish womens teams not
casters, and announcers even coaches are becoming
expecting them to generate revenue but in the name of intelligence or humans alone.
accepted parts of the game. League and franchise
equality for the good of their brand. Driverless vehicles
campaigns for breast cancer research and against domestic NEIL JACOBSTEIN
create major job displacement. We see increasing numbers HENRY CROWN FELLOW, ASPEN INSTITUTE; CHAIR, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND
ROBOTICS, SINGULARITY UNIVERSITY

THE FINAL WORD
THE FUTURE OF SPORTS
/ THE STADIUM / BROADCASTING / THE ATHLETE / THE THIRD VENUE
/ SPONSORSHIP + ADVERTISING / TEAMS + LEAGUES
/ E-SPORTS + FANTASY SPORTS / THE FAN
New technologies will continue to bring us ever closer to the / EXTREME + ADVENTURE SPORTS / PAYMENTS + TICKETING
game and to those transcendent moments of physical grace / FANBASE ECONOMICS /
under pressure that we all long to witness. Its a great time to
be a sports fan, and its only going to get better. read more at > http: //futureof.org
But fans are now expecting more than just a better view. Technology has
changed the nature of fans relationships with their teams and leagues.
Empowered by social media and other new ways to access information,
fans now expect 24/7 all-access passes, not only to the field of play but to
the locker room and front office as well. They expect a seat at the table
where decisions are made, and given their increasingly active role in
creating, distributing, and marketing sports content they deserve it.
That new relationship and new level of transparency come with some
risks and potentially great rewards. Fans are drawn to sports because
sports represent the best of our shared humanity: honor, fair play, and
the value of hard work and dedication to a team. Fans will expect to see
those characteristics manifested not only on the field but throughout our
organizations and leagues. If we live up to those expectations, the future
holds enormous opportunity for all the stakeholders in the sports
industry. Fans are increasingly becoming more than sports consumers.
They are becoming true partners in our brands. Nurturing this new
relationship with foresight and wisdom will be every bit as important as
harnessing the accelerating wave of disruptive technology. Now lets
get ready for the future of sports.
Jerry Jacobs Jr. Lou Jacobs Charlie Jacobs

Co-Chief Executive Officer Co-Chief Executive Officer Chief Executive Officer
Delaware North Delaware North Delaware Norths
Boston Holdings
50 THE FUTURE OF SPORTS

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INTRODUCTION

Sports have drawn people together to cheer for

The changes on the horizon will likely be even more disruptive.

Discussing the future of our industry can be anxiety-provoking, simply because

THE FUTURE OF SPORTS 01

18 The Third Venue

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THE STADIUM AT&T Stadium, Dallas

Data Transfer of Football Content

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BROADCASTING Using the Internet to build

We are entering a time of commercial and BRETT HUTCHINS

advertising. There will be a proliferation MEDIA SPORTS

of niche channels and digital sports media.

NFL TV BROADCAST RIGHTS ($ million per year)

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ence, a complete illusion. We are just starting to learn

and understand how to control, manipulate and share

THE THIRD VENUE

newest and most exhilarating sports entertainment technology. Augmented

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The meteoric rise of e-sports will accelerate third venue

THE THIRD VENUE

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CONTRIBUTING FACTORS DISRUPTION OPPORTUNITY

SPONSORSHIP In 20 to 30 years, everyone will look like Red Bull.

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SPONSORSHIP programming that draws passionate followers; original programming

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THE VALUE OF GLOBAL INTEREST DISRUPTION OPPORTUNITY

360m 2014 Champions League Final

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Will financial inequality within leagues destroy competitive balance?

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495,000 565,000 635,000 On Amazons $970 million acquisition of e-sports

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24 minutes $18 million $6.6 million

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CONTRIBUTING FACTORS 516,000 Daily News

THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE

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DANGER IS MY MIDDLE NAME

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booming new market? Traditional Sports Extreme + Adventure Sports

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THE INTERNET OF THINGS

BITCOIN TRANSACTIONS PER DAY

2,000 April 2011 55,000 April 2013 108,000 April 2015

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distributing tickets, waiting in

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DECLINE OF THE MIDDLE CLASS TWO-INCOME FAMILIES

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Quite possibly, we could experience massive shifts in women's sports

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