AdStats Fact Book On Advertising Expenditures 2008-10-23 JPM
AdStats Fact Book On Advertising Expenditures 2008-10-23 JPM
AdStats Fact Book On Advertising Expenditures 2008-10-23 JPM
23 October 2008
• We include comprehensive historical statistics and projections relevant Advertising Agencies & Marketing
to U.S. and global advertising. Services
AC
Alexia S. Quadrani
• We break down advertising expenditures by geographic region, media, (1-212) 622-1896
industry, major advertisers, brands, and key events. alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
• We provide data by each major media, looking at spending by region,
Townsend Buckles
format, category, and major advertiser. (1-212) 622-0461
townsend.buckles@jpmorgan.com
• We offer detailed information on advertising companies, their agency
J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
networks, and diversified marketing specialists.
Monica DiCenso
(1-212) 622-0473
monica.dicenso@jpmorgan.com
See page 129 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
Table of Contents
U.S. Advertising Expenditures...............................................................................................6
Table 1. Advertising & Marketing Services — U.S. Outlook Summary, 2005-2009E .............................................................8
Table 2. Advertising & Marketing Services — U.S. Advertising Expenditure vs. Nominal GDP Growth, 1970-2009E .........9
Figure 1. Advertising & Marketing Services — U.S. Advertising Expenditure vs. Nominal GDP Growth, 1971-2009E......10
Table 3. Advertising & Marketing Services — Outlook for 2008E U.S. Advertising.............................................................10
Table 4. Change in U.S. Advertising Media Mix, 1970-2008E...............................................................................................11
Figure 2. Ad Spend by Media, 1970-2008E ............................................................................................................................12
Table 5. Estimated Annual U.S. Advertising Expenditures, 1970-2008E ...............................................................................13
Table 5. Estimated Annual U.S. Advertising Expenditures, 1970-2008E (cont’d) .................................................................14
Table 6. Estimated Annual U.S. Advertising Expenditures Growth, 1971-2008E ..................................................................15
Table 6. Estimated Annual U.S. Advertising Expenditures Growth, 1971-2008E (cont’d) ....................................................16
Table 7. U.S. Advertising Expenditure by Medium, 2006-2007 .............................................................................................17
Table 8. U.S. Advertising Expenditure by Medium, 2000-2010E ...........................................................................................18
Table 9. 2007 CPM Comparison .............................................................................................................................................19
Table 10. U.S. Ad Spending by Category................................................................................................................................20
Global Advertising Expenditures ........................................................................................22
Table 11. Worldwide Advertising Growth, 1990-2009E.........................................................................................................24
Figure 3. Worldwide Ad Growth, 1990-2009E .......................................................................................................................24
Table 12. Outlook for Ad Expenditure Growth by Country, 2006-08E...................................................................................25
Table 13. Zenith’s World Advertising Expenditure by Region, 2006-2010E..........................................................................25
Table 14. Global Advertising Expenditures by Medium, 2006-2010E....................................................................................25
Table 15. Total Advertising Expenditure by Country, 2000-2010E .......................................................................................26
Table 16. Advertising Expenditure as a % of GDP by Country, 2000-2010E........................................................................27
Table 17. Advertising Expenditure per Capita by Country, 1995-2006 .................................................................................28
Table 18. Western European Advertising Expenditures by Medium, 1996-2010E ................................................................29
Table 19. Asia Pacific Advertising Expenditure by Medium, 1996-2010E.............................................................................29
Table 20. China Advertising Expenditure by Medium, 1996-2010E.......................................................................................29
Television Advertising Expenditures ..................................................................................30
Table 21. Television Advertising Expenditure by Region and Country, 2000-2010E.............................................................32
Table 22. Quarterly Changes in Ad Revenue...........................................................................................................................33
Table 23. DVR Household Penetration in the U.S., 2005-2012E ............................................................................................33
Table 24. Total U.S. Broadcast TV Ad Revenues, 1949-2008E..............................................................................................34
Table 25. Top 10 Broadcast TV Companies............................................................................................................................35
Table 26. Top 10 Cable-Network Companies .........................................................................................................................35
Radio Advertising .................................................................................................................36
Table 27. Radio Ad Spending by Country and Region, 2000-2010E ......................................................................................37
Table 28. Historical U.S. Radio Advertising Revenues, 1960-2007........................................................................................38
Table 29. Top 10 Radio Companies ........................................................................................................................................39
Newspaper Advertising Expenditures ................................................................................40
Table 32. Newspaper Advertising Expenditure by Country, 2000-2010E...............................................................................44
Table 33. Top 10 Newspaper Companies ................................................................................................................................45
Figure 4. Newsprint Prices, 1Q88-2Q08..................................................................................................................................45
Figure 5. National Newspaper Ad Expenditures – Year-over-Year Change, 1Q91-2Q08 ......................................................46
Figure 6. National Newspaper Ad Expenditure Detail, 2007 ..................................................................................................46
Figure 7. Retail Ad Spending Versus Retail Sales – Year-over-Year Change, 1Q91-2Q08....................................................47
2
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
3
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
4
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
5
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
6
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
7
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
Robert Coen
7/8/2008 $279.6 -0.7% $285.1 2.0% $294.0 3.1%
12/3/2007 $283.9 0.7% $294.4 3.7%
6/26/2007 $271.1 2.8% $281.6 3.9% $290.3 3.1% $305.0 5.0%
JPMorgan (JPM) $271.1 2.8% $281.6 3.9% $279.6 -0.7% $283.0 1.2% $277.3 -2.0%
.
JPM GDP $12,421.9 6.3% $13,178.4 6.1% $13,807.5 4.8% $14,277.0 3.4% $14,476.8 1.4%
(1) Zenith expentiture totals for North America
Source: TNS; Robert Coen, MAGNA; Zenith; J.P.Morgan estimates.
8
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
Table 2. Advertising & Marketing Services — U.S. Advertising Expenditure vs. Nominal GDP Growth, 1970-2009E
($ in billions)
Advertising
Advertising % Change Nominal % Change Expenditures as
Year Expenditure in Ad Exp GDP in GDP a % of GDP
1970 $19.5 - $1,054.2 - 1.9%
1971 20.7 6.0% 1,153.1 9.4% 1.8%
1972 23.2 12.2% 1,289.7 11.8% 1.8%
1973 25.0 7.7% 1,435.3 11.3% 1.7%
1974 26.6 6.6% 1,551.6 8.1% 1.7%
1975 27.9 4.9% 1,710.5 10.2% 1.6%
1976 33.4 19.4% 1,885.4 10.2% 1.8%
1977 37.5 12.5% 2,112.4 12.0% 1.8%
1978 43.5 15.8% 2,418.0 14.5% 1.8%
1979 49.0 12.7% 2,663.8 10.2% 1.8%
1980 54.0 10.3% 2,918.8 9.6% 1.8%
1981 60.9 12.8% 3,203.1 9.7% 1.9%
1982 67.2 10.2% 3,315.6 3.5% 2.0%
1983 76.6 14.0% 3,688.8 11.3% 2.1%
1984 88.6 15.7% 4,033.5 9.3% 2.2%
1985 95.6 7.8% 4,319.3 7.1% 2.2%
1986 103.2 8.0% 4,537.5 5.1% 2.3%
1987 111.2 7.8% 4,891.6 7.8% 2.3%
1988 119.9 7.8% 5,258.3 7.5% 2.3%
1989 126.1 5.2% 5,588.0 6.3% 2.3%
1990 130.0 3.9% 5,803.1 3.8% 2.2%
1991 128.4 -1.2% 5,995.9 3.3% 2.1%
1992 133.8 4.2% 6,337.7 5.7% 2.1%
1993 141.0 5.4% 6,657.4 5.0% 2.1%
1994 153.0 8.6% 7,072.2 6.2% 2.2%
1995 165.1 7.9% 7,397.7 4.6% 2.2%
1996 178.1 7.9% 7,816.9 5.7% 2.3%
1997 191.3 7.4% 8,304.3 6.2% 2.3%
1998 206.7 8.0% 8,747.0 5.3% 2.4%
1999 222.3 7.6% 9,268.4 6.0% 2.4%
2000 247.5 11.3% 9,817.0 5.9% 2.5%
2001 231.3 -6.5% 10,128.0 3.2% 2.3%
2002 236.9 2.4% 10,469.6 3.4% 2.3%
2003 245.5 3.6% 10,960.8 4.7% 2.2%
2004 263.8 7.5% 11,685.9 6.6% 2.3%
2005 271.1 2.8% 12,421.9 6.3% 2.2%
2006 281.6 3.9% 13,178.4 6.1% 2.1%
2007 279.6 -0.7% 13,807.5 4.8% 2.0%
2008E 285.1 2.0% 14,277.0 3.4% 2.0%
2009E 294.0 3.1% 14,476.8 1.4% 2.0%
Source: Robert Coen of MAGNA; Bureau of Economic Analysis; J.P.Morgan estimates.
9
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
Figure 1. Advertising & Marketing Services — U.S. Advertising Expenditure vs. Nominal GDP Growth, 1971-2009E
(% change)
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
2008E
2009E
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
% Chg in Ad Exp % Change in GDP
Table 3. Advertising & Marketing Services — Outlook for 2008E U.S. Advertising
($ in billions)
Advertising Expenditures % Growth
Media 2008E 2007 2006 2008E 2007
Four TV Networks $17.8 $16.6 $16.7 7.0% -0.2%
Spot TV 11.2 10.1 11.6 10.0 -12.8
Cable TV 22.3 20.6 19.3 8.0 6.7
Syndication TV 3.6 3.3 3.7 8.0 -9.8
Radio 4.2 4.3 4.4 -0.9 -4.2
Magazines 13.9 13.8 13.2 1.0 4.7
Newspapers 6.1 6.6 7.1 -7.0 -6.7
Consumer Media Subtotal 79.1 75.4 76.0 2.2 -0.8
Direct Mail 61.7 60.2 58.6 2.5 2.7
Yellow Pages 2.2 2.2 2.2 0.0 -1.0
Internet 11.8 10.5 9.1 12.0 15.7
Other National Media 38.2 37.0 36.5 3.5 1.2
Total National 193.1 185.3 182.5 4.2 1.5
Local Newspapers 32.7 35.5 39.5 -8.0 -10.0
Local TV 15.0 14.4 14.9 4.0 -3.2
Local Radio 14.5 14.9 15.2 -3.0 -2.0
Local Yellow Pages 12.1 12.1 12.2 0.0 -1.0
Other Local Media 17.9 17.4 17.4 2.4 0.1
Total Local $92.0 $94.3 $99.2 1.1% -4.9%
Total National $193.1 $185.3 $182.5 4.2% 1.5%
Grand Total $285.1 $279.6 $281.7 3.1% 3.9%
Source: Robert Coen, MAGNA. July 2008.
10
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
11
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
1970 1980
Magazines, 7%
Magazines, 6%
Other, 19%
Other, 25%
Internet, 0%
Direct Mail, 14%
1990 2000
Magazines, 5%
Magazines, 5%
Other, 17%
Other, 17%
Newspapers, 20%
2008E
Magazines, 5%
Network TV, 6%
Internet (Display), 4%
12
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
Local Television
Local Spot Television $704 $796 $969 $1,115 $1,212 $1,334 $1,710 $1,948 $2,373 $2,682 $2,967 $3,368 $3,765 $4,345 $5,084 $5,714 $6,514 $6,833 $7,270 $7,612
Local Cable Television (Non-Network) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 26 48 76 121 196 270 306 383 497
Total Local Television 704 796 969 1,115 1,212 1,334 1,710 1,948 2,373 2,682 2,979 3,394 3,813 4,421 5,205 5,910 6,784 7,139 7,653 8,109
Network Television (ABC, CBS, NBC) 1,658 1,593 1,804 1,968 2,145 2,306 2,857 3,460 3,975 4,599 5,130 5,540 6,144 6,955 8,318 8,060 8,342 8,500 9,172 9,110
Fox Broadcasting Company 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Spot Television (National Stations) 1,234 1,145 1,318 1,377 1,497 1,623 2,154 2,204 2,607 2,873 3,269 3,746 4,364 4,827 5,488 6,004 6,570 6,846 7,147 7,354
Cable Television (Network) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 134 242 376 612 793 903 1,015 1,258 1,598
Syndicated Television (Barter) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 75 150 300 420 520 600 762 901 1,288
Total National Television 2,892 2,738 3,122 3,345 3,642 3,929 5,011 5,664 6,582 7,472 8,509 9,495 10,900 12,458 14,838 15,377 16,415 17,123 18,478 19,350
Total Television Advertising Dollars 3,596 3,534 4,091 4,460 4,854 5,263 6,721 7,612 8,955 10,154 11,488 12,889 14,713 16,879 20,043 21,287 23,199 24,262 26,131 27,459
Radio
Local Spot Radio 881 987 1,136 1,255 1,363 1,461 1,707 1,951 2,285 2,484 2,740 3,121 3,492 3,876 4,300 4,790 5,178 5,463 5,955 6,300
Network 56 63 74 68 69 83 105 137 147 161 183 230 255 296 320 365 423 413 425 476
National Spot (Local Stations) 371 395 402 400 405 436 518 546 620 665 779 879 923 1,038 1,197 1,335 1,348 1,330 1,418 1,547
National Total 427 458 476 468 474 519 623 683 767 826 962 1,109 1,178 1,334 1,517 1,700 1,771 1,743 1,843 2,023
Total Radio Advertising Dollars 1,308 1,445 1,612 1,723 1,837 1,980 2,330 2,634 3,052 3,310 3,702 4,230 4,670 5,210 5,817 6,490 6,949 7,206 7,798 8,323
Newspapers
Local Newspaper 4,813 5,195 5,876 6,432 6,737 7,125 8,276 9,279 10,673 12,093 12,831 14,269 15,242 17,848 20,441 21,818 23,614 25,918 27,611 28,664
National Newspaper 891 972 1,062 1,049 1,105 1,109 1,342 1,472 1,541 1,770 1,963 2,259 2,452 2,734 3,081 3,352 3,376 3,494 3,586 3,704
Total Newspaper Advertising Dollars 5,704 6,167 6,938 7,481 7,842 8,234 9,618 10,751 12,214 13,863 14,794 16,528 17,694 20,582 23,522 25,170 26,990 29,412 31,197 32,368
Magazines
Total Magazine Advertising Dollars 1,292 1,370 1,440 1,448 1,504 1,465 1,789 2,162 2,597 2,932 3,149 3,533 3,710 4,233 4,932 5,155 5,317 5,607 6,072 6,716
Business Papers
Total Business Publishing Dollars 740 720 781 865 900 919 1,035 1,221 1,400 1,575 1,674 1,841 1,876 1,990 2,270 2,375 2,382 2,458 2,610 2,763
Outdoor
Billboards 205 233 268 289 303 333 389 438 499 591 690 754 807 897 963 1,024 1,124 1,241 1,373 1,488
Other 55 66 81 92 101 117 144 171 205 254 310 355 398 463 520 576 661 761 878 972
Total Outdoor Dollars 260 299 349 381 404 450 533 609 704 845 1,000 1,109 1,205 1,360 1,483 1,600 1,785 2,002 2,251 2,460
Internet
Total Internet Advertising 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Miscellaneous
National 2,126 2,201 2,428 2,562 2,746 2,841 3,431 3,849 4,435 4,992 5,293 5,950 6,547 7,115 8,310 8,746 9,325 9,939 10,764 11,330
Local 1,722 1,878 2,149 2,370 2,502 2,665 3,121 3,539 4,120 4,641 2,396 2,595 2,620 3,002 3,544 3,432 3,578 3,950 4,218 4,425
Total Miscellaneous Dollars 3,848 4,079 4,577 4,932 5,248 5,506 6,552 7,388 8,555 9,633 7,689 8,545 9,167 10,117 11,854 12,178 12,903 13,889 14,982 15,755
Yellow Pages
Local Yellow Pages 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,570 2,920 3,367 3,911 4,320 5,105 5,741 6,470 6,837 7,319
National Yellow Pages 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 330 380 433 489 580 695 759 830 944 1,011
Total Yellow Pages Advertising Dollars 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,900 3,300 3,800 4,400 4,900 5,800 6,500 7,300 7,781 8,330
Direct Mail
Total Direct Mail Advertising Dollars 2,766 3,067 3,420 3,698 4,054 4,124 4,786 5,164 5,987 6,653 7,596 8,944 10,319 11,795 13,800 15,500 17,145 19,111 21,115 21,945
Notes: 2008 Internet estimate from eMarketer. 2008 Outdoor estimate is JPM estimate. Outdoor ad spend growth provided by OAAA. Total Ad Spend does not equal Bob Coen's estimate because historical Internet estimates are from IAB and outdoor ad spend
estimates are from OAAA Miscellaneous National estimates revised for 1980-1999 as of September 8, 2004. Therefore, 1970-1979 estimates are not comparable. Miscellaneous includes point of purchase ads, weekly newspapers, and shoppers, as well as a host of
other things like premiums, calendars, and research as well as advertising department budgets and overhead.
Source: Robert Coen, MAGNA, July 2008; OAAA; IAB/PricewaterhouseCoopers; eMarketer; J.P.Morgan.
13
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
Business Papers
Total Business Publishing Dollars 2,875 2,982 3,090 3,260 3,358 3,559 3,808 4,109 4,232 4,274 4,915 4,468 3,976 4,004 4,072 4,170 4,195 4,111 3,988
Outdoor (59) (59) (57) (61) (64) (69) (74) (78) (82)
Billboards 1,560 1,637 1,583 1,720 1,895 2,100 2,256 2,428 2,648 2,899 3,141 3,116 3,139 3,413 3,617 3,907 4,335 4,659 4,892
Other 1,040 1,091 1,055 1,147 1,264 1,400 1,504 1,619 1,765 1,933 2,094 2,077 2,093 2,092 2,217 2,394 2,470 2,621 2,752
Total Outdoor Dollars 2,600 2,728 2,638 2,867 3,159 3,500 3,760 4,047 4,413 4,832 5,235 5,193 5,232 5,504 5,834 6,301 6,805 7,280 7,644
Internet
Total Internet Advertising 0 0 0 0 0 0 267 907 1,920 4,621 8,087 7,134 6,010 7,267 9,626 12,542 16,879 21,208 24,898
Miscellaneous
National 12,074 12,166 12,788 13,534 14,425 16,147 17,574 18,745 20,312 22,264 24,418 23,042 23,414 24,550 26,907 27,822 29,380 29,830 31,083
Local 4,582 4,470 4,660 4,979 5,468 5,955 6,529 7,260 8,188 9,281 7,665 6,853 7,316 7,440 7,738 7,870 7,941 7,553 7,372
Total Miscellaneous Dollars 16,656 16,636 17,448 18,513 19,893 22,102 24,103 26,005 28,500 31,545 32,083 29,895 30,730 31,990 34,645 35,692 37,321 37,383 38,455
Yellow Pages
Local Yellow Pages 7,794 8,020 8,132 8,287 8,511 8,826 9,294 9,712 10,120 10,666 11,135 11,505 11,689 11,782 11,892 12,066 12,187 12,065 12,065
National Yellow Pages 1,132 1,162 1,188 1,230 1,314 1,410 1,555 1,711 1,870 1,986 2,093 2,087 2,087 2,114 2,110 2,163 2,206 2,185 2,185
Total Yellow Pages Advertising Dollars 8,926 9,182 9,320 9,517 9,825 10,236 10,849 11,423 11,990 12,652 13,228 13,592 13,776 13,896 14,002 14,229 14,393 14,250 14,250
Direct Mail
Total Direct Mail Advertising Dollars 23,370 24,460 25,392 27,266 29,638 32,866 34,509 36,890 39,620 41,403 44,591 44,725 46,067 48,370 52,191 55,218 58,642 60,225 61,731
14
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
Local Television
Local Spot Television 13.1% 21.7% 15.1% 8.7% 10.1% 28.2% 13.9% 21.8% 13.0% 10.6% 13.5% 11.8% 15.4% 17.0% 12.4% 14.0% 4.9% 6.4% 4.7%
Local Cable Television (Non-Network) NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM 116.7% 84.6% 58.3% 59.2% 62.0% 37.8% 13.3% 25.2% 29.8%
Total Local Television 13.1% 21.7% 15.1% 8.7% 10.1% 28.2% 13.9% 21.8% 13.0% 11.1% 13.9% 12.3% 15.9% 17.7% 13.5% 14.8% 5.2% 7.2% 6.0%
Network Television (ABC, CBS, NBC) -3.9% 13.2% 9.1% 9.0% 7.5% 23.9% 21.1% 14.9% 15.7% 11.5% 8.0% 10.9% 13.2% 19.6% -3.1% 3.5% 1.9% 7.9% -0.7%
Fox Broadcasting Company NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
Spot Television (National Stations) -7.2% 15.1% 4.5% 8.7% 8.4% 32.7% 2.3% 18.3% 10.2% 13.8% 14.6% 16.5% 10.6% 13.7% 9.4% 9.4% 4.2% 4.4% 2.9%
Cable Television (Network) NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM 123.3% 80.6% 55.4% 62.8% 29.6% 13.9% 12.4% 23.9% 27.0%
Syndicated Television (Barter) NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM 50.0% 100.0% 100.0% 40.0% 23.8% 15.4% 27.0% 18.2% 43.0%
Total National Television -5.3% 14.0% 7.1% 8.9% 7.9% 27.5% 13.0% 16.2% 13.5% 13.9% 11.6% 14.8% 14.3% 19.1% 3.6% 6.8% 4.3% 7.9% 4.7%
Total Television Advertising Dollars -1.7% 15.8% 9.0% 8.8% 8.4% 27.7% 13.3% 17.6% 13.4% 13.1% 12.2% 14.2% 14.7% 18.7% 6.2% 9.0% 4.6% 7.7% 5.1%
Local Spot Radio 12.0% 15.1% 10.5% 8.6% 7.2% 16.8% 14.3% 17.1% 8.7% 10.3% 13.9% 11.9% 11.0% 10.9% 11.4% 8.1% 5.5% 9.0% 5.8%
Network 12.5% 17.5% -8.1% 1.5% 20.3% 26.5% 30.5% 7.3% 9.5% 13.7% 25.7% 10.9% 16.1% 8.1% 14.1% 15.9% -2.4% 2.9% 12.0%
National Spot (Local Stations) 6.5% 1.8% -0.5% 1.3% 7.7% 18.8% 5.4% 13.6% 7.3% 17.1% 12.8% 5.0% 12.5% 15.3% 11.5% 1.0% -1.3% 6.6% 9.1%
National Total 7.3% 3.9% -1.7% 1.3% 9.5% 20.0% 9.6% 12.3% 7.7% 16.5% 15.3% 6.2% 13.2% 13.7% 12.1% 4.2% -1.6% 5.7% 9.8%
Total Radio Advertising Dollars 10.5% 11.6% 6.9% 6.6% 7.8% 17.7% 13.0% 15.9% 8.5% 11.8% 14.3% 10.4% 11.6% 11.7% 11.6% 7.1% 3.7% 8.2% 6.7%
Newspapers
Local Newspaper 7.9% 13.1% 9.5% 4.7% 5.8% 16.2% 12.1% 15.0% 13.3% 6.1% 11.2% 6.8% 17.1% 14.5% 6.7% 8.2% 9.8% 6.5% 3.8%
National Newspaper 9.1% 9.3% -1.2% 5.3% 0.4% 21.0% 9.7% 4.7% 14.9% 10.9% 15.1% 8.5% 11.5% 12.7% 8.8% 0.7% 3.5% 2.6% 3.3%
Total Newspaper Advertising Dollars 8.1% 12.5% 7.8% 4.8% 5.0% 16.8% 11.8% 13.6% 13.5% 6.7% 11.7% 7.1% 16.3% 14.3% 7.0% 7.2% 9.0% 6.1% 3.8%
Magazines
Total Magazine Advertising Dollars 6.0% 5.1% 0.6% 3.9% -2.6% 22.1% 20.8% 20.1% 12.9% 7.4% 12.2% 5.0% 14.1% 16.5% 4.5% 3.1% 5.5% 8.3% 10.6%
Business Papers
Total Business Publishing Dollars -2.7% 8.5% 10.8% 4.0% 2.1% 12.6% 18.0% 14.7% 12.5% 6.3% 10.0% 1.9% 6.1% 14.1% 4.6% 0.3% 3.2% 6.2% 5.9%
Outdoor
Billboards 13.7% 15.0% 7.8% 4.8% 9.9% 16.8% 12.6% 13.9% 18.4% 16.8% 9.3% 7.0% 11.2% 7.4% 6.3% 9.8% 10.4% 10.6% 8.4%
Other Outdoor 20.0% 22.7% 13.6% 9.8% 15.8% 23.1% 18.8% 19.9% 23.9% 22.0% 14.5% 12.1% 16.3% 12.3% 10.8% 14.8% 15.1% 15.4% 10.7%
Total Outdoor Dollars 15.0% 16.7% 9.2% 6.0% 11.4% 18.4% 14.3% 15.6% 20.0% 18.3% 10.9% 8.7% 12.9% 9.0% 7.9% 11.6% 12.2% 12.4% 9.3%
Internet
Total Internet Advertising
Miscellaneous
National 3.5% 10.3% 5.5% 7.2% 3.5% 20.8% 12.2% 15.2% 12.6% 6.0% 12.4% 10.0% 8.7% 16.8% 5.2% 6.6% 6.6% 8.3% 5.3%
Local 9.1% 14.4% 10.3% 5.6% 6.5% 17.1% 13.4% 16.4% 12.6% -48.4% 8.3% 1.0% 14.6% 18.1% -3.2% 4.3% 10.4% 6.8% 4.9%
Total Miscellaneous Dollars 6.0% 12.2% 7.8% 6.4% 4.9% 19.0% 12.8% 15.8% 12.6% -20.2% 11.1% 7.3% 10.4% 17.2% 2.7% 6.0% 7.6% 7.9% 5.2%
Yellow Pages
Local Yellow Pages NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM 13.6% 15.3% 16.2% 10.5% 18.2% 12.5% 12.7% 5.7% 7.0%
National Yellow Pages NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM 15.2% 13.9% 12.9% 18.6% 19.8% 9.2% 9.4% 13.7% 7.1%
Total Yellow Pages Advertising Dollars NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM 13.8% 15.2% 15.8% 11.4% 18.4% 12.1% 12.3% 6.6% 7.1%
Direct Mail
Total Direct Mail Advertising Dollars 10.9% 11.5% 8.1% 9.6% 1.7% 16.1% 7.9% 15.9% 11.1% 14.2% 17.7% 15.4% 14.3% 17.0% 12.3% 10.6% 11.5% 10.5% 3.9%
Notes: 2008 Internet estimate from eMarketer. 2008 Outdoor estimate is JPM estimate. Outdoor ad spend growth provided by OAAA. Total Ad Spend does not equal Bob Coen's estimate because historical Internet estimates are from IAB and outdoor ad spend
estimates are from OAAA Miscellaneous National estimates revised for 1980-1999 as of September 8, 2004. Therefore, 1970-1979 estimates are not comparable. Miscellaneous includes point of purchase advertising, weekly newspapers, and shoppers, as well as a
host of other things like premiums, calendars, and research as well as advertising department budgets and overhead.
Source: Robert Coen, MAGNA, July 2008; OAAA; IAB/PricewaterhouseCoopers; eMarketer; J.P.Morgan.
15
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
Local Television
Local Spot Television 6.4% 4.7% 3.2% -3.7% 6.8% 4.4% 12.2% 5.5% 9.6% 4.5% 6.4% 4.2% 6.8% -9.5% 7.0% 3.1% 7.3% -1.7% 4.4% -3.0% 3.8%
Local Cable Television (Non-Network) 25.2% 29.8% 27.0% 18.1% 38.3% 12.2% 14.5% 25.8% 25.0% 10.4% 17.4% 17.2% 16.6% 7.3% 6.7% 15.0% 5.0% 5.0% 6.5% 0.0% 7.0%
Total Local Television 7.2% 6.0% 4.7% -2.1% 9.6% 5.3% 12.5% 8.0% 11.8% 5.4% 8.2% 6.6% 8.8% -5.9% 6.9% 6.0% 6.7% 0.0% 5.0% -2.2% 4.7%
Network Television (ABC, CBS, NBC) 7.9% -0.7% 3.0% -4.8% 6.9% -1.9% 6.3% 3.1% 11.3% -0.9% 6.9% 0.7% 16.9% -10.2% 3.6% -1.1% 12.1% -5.4% 2.9% -3.2% 7.2%
Fox Broadcasting Company NM NM NM 25.0% 16.7% 20.0% 17.0% 36.0% 24.0% 2.3% -3.8% 8.3% -7.6% -7.8% 15.9% 10.4% 5.0% 10.3% 6.6% 17.9% 6.0%
Spot Television (National Stations) 4.4% 2.9% 5.9% -8.7% 6.2% 3.3% 15.3% 1.4% 7.5% 2.0% 6.6% -1.5% 16.8% -24.8% 18.4% -8.9% 14.3% -11.7% 15.8% -12.8% 10.0%
Cable Television (Network) 23.9% 27.0% 25.2% 20.0% 16.7% 17.7% 17.9% 15.8% 26.6% 13.3% 18.4% 23.1% 25.1% 0.1% 2.5% 15.6% 17.7% 11.4% 4.5% 7.8% 8.0%
Syndicated Television (Barter) 18.2% 43.0% -13.9% 13.0% 9.3% 15.0% 10.0% 16.3% 10.0% 9.9% 7.0% 10.0% 8.3% -0.2% -2.2% 13.2% 7.0% 5.2% -4.5% -9.8% 8.0%
Total National Television 7.9% 4.7% 7.3% -2.2% 8.2% 4.1% 11.7% 6.6% 13.1% 3.6% 8.6% 6.0% 17.1% -10.7% 6.8% 3.3% 13.7% 0.3% 5.8% -0.8% 8.1%
Total Television Advertising Dollars 7.7% 5.1% 6.5% -2.2% 8.6% 4.5% 11.9% 7.0% 12.7% 4.2% 8.5% 6.2% 14.6% -9.4% 6.9% 4.1% 11.6% 0.2% 5.5% -1.2% 7.1%
Local Spot Radio 9.0% 5.8% 4.9% -3.0% 4.9% 9.2% 11.2% 9.0% 8.0% 9.0% 11.0% 14.0% 12.0% -4.4% 4.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0%
Network 2.9% 12.0% 1.3% 1.7% -13.5% 8.0% 1.1% 3.7% 9.0% 7.1% 11.1% 10.0% 14.0% -8.8% 9.0% 3.0% 4.8% -2.6% -2.0% 4.0% 8.0%
National Spot (Local Stations) 6.6% 9.1% 5.7% -3.7% -4.4% 10.1% 14.8% 3.0% 9.0% 15.0% 15.0% 16.0% 12.0% -19.4% 13.0% 6.0% 0.0% -2.0% 5.0% -6.0% -3.0%
National Total 5.7% 9.8% 4.6% -2.5% -6.6% 9.6% 11.8% 3.1% 9.0% 13.4% 14.3% 14.9% 12.4% -17.6% 12.2% 5.4% 0.9% -2.1% 3.7% -4.2% -0.9%
Total Radio Advertising Dollars 8.2% 6.7% 4.8% -2.9% 2.1% 9.3% 11.3% 7.7% 8.2% 10.0% 11.7% 14.2% 12.1% -7.4% 5.7% 1.2% 2.5% 0.3% 0.0% -2.5% -2.5%
Newspapers
Local Newspaper 6.5% 3.8% -0.9% -5.9% 1.5% 4.7% 7.2% 6.1% 5.2% 7.8% 6.1% 3.6% 3.8% -10.0% -1.1% 0.7% 4.0% 2.3% 1.5% -19.6% 0.5%
National Newspaper 2.6% 3.3% 4.4% -4.7% -2.3% 0.5% 7.9% 2.3% 10.1% 14.0% 7.7% 17.7% 13.7% -8.5% 2.9% 8.1% 3.7% -2.1% -3.0% -8.7% -7.0%
Total Newspaper Advertising Dollars 6.1% 3.8% -0.3% -5.8% 1.1% 4.2% 7.3% 5.7% 5.7% 8.5% 6.3% 5.3% 5.1% -9.8% -0.5% 1.8% 3.9% 1.5% 0.8% -18.0% -0.8%
Magazines
Total Magazine Advertising Dollars 8.3% 10.6% 1.3% -4.1% 7.3% 5.1% 7.6% 8.4% 5.0% 9.0% 7.1% 8.7% 8.2% -10.3% -0.9% 4.0% 7.1% 4.9% 2.5% 4.7% 1.0%
Business Papers
Total Business Publishing Dollars 6.2% 5.9% 4.1% 3.7% 3.6% 5.5% 3.0% 6.0% 7.0% 7.9% 3.0% 1.0% 15.0% -9.1% -11.0% 0.7% 1.7% 2.4% 0.6% -2.0% -3.0%
Outdoor
Billboards 10.6% 8.4% 4.8% 4.9% -3.3% 8.7% 10.2% 10.8% 7.4% 7.6% 9.0% 9.5% 8.3% -0.8% 0.8% 8.7% 6.0% 8.0% 11.0% 7.5% 5.0%
Other Outdoor 15.4% 10.7% 7.0% 4.9% -3.3% 8.7% 10.2% 10.8% 7.4% 7.6% 9.0% 9.5% 8.3% -0.8% 0.8% -0.1% 6.0% 8.0% 3.2% 6.1% 5.0%
Total Outdoor Dollars 12.4% 9.3% 5.7% 4.9% -3.3% 8.7% 10.2% 10.8% 7.4% 7.6% 9.0% 9.5% 8.3% -0.8% 0.8% 5.2% 6.0% 8.0% 8.0% 7.0% 5.0%
Internet
Total Internet Advertising 111.7% 140.7% NM -11.8% -15.8% 20.9% 32.5% 30.3% 34.6% 25.6% 17.4%
Miscellaneous
National 8.3% 5.3% 6.6% 0.8% 5.1% 5.8% 6.6% 11.9% 8.8% 6.7% 8.4% 9.6% 9.7% -5.6% 1.6% 4.9% 9.6% 3.4% 5.6% 1.5% 4.2%
Local 6.8% 4.9% 3.5% -2.4% 4.3% 6.8% 9.8% 8.9% 9.6% 11.2% 12.8% 13.3% -17.4% -10.6% 6.8% 1.7% 4.0% 1.7% 0.9% -4.9% -2.4%
Total Miscellaneous Dollars 7.9% 5.2% 5.7% -0.1% 4.9% 6.1% 7.5% 11.1% 9.1% 7.9% 9.6% 10.7% 1.7% -6.8% 2.8% 4.1% 8.3% 3.0% 4.6% 0.2% 2.9%
Yellow Pages
Local Yellow Pages 5.7% 7.0% 6.5% 2.9% 1.4% 1.9% 2.7% 3.7% 5.3% 4.5% 4.2% 5.4% 4.4% 3.3% 1.6% 0.8% 0.9% 1.5% 1.0% -1.0% 0.0%
National Yellow Pages 13.7% 7.1% 12.0% 2.7% 2.2% 3.5% 6.8% 7.3% 10.3% 10.0% 9.3% 6.2% 5.4% -0.3% 0.0% 1.3% -0.2% 2.5% 2.0% -1.0% 0.0%
Total Yellow Pages Advertising Dollars 6.6% 7.1% 7.2% 2.9% 1.5% 2.1% 3.2% 4.2% 6.0% 5.3% 5.0% 5.5% 4.6% 2.8% 1.4% 0.9% 0.8% 1.6% 1.2% -1.0% 0.0%
Direct Mail
Total Direct Mail Advertising Dollars 10.5% 3.9% 6.5% 4.7% 3.8% 7.4% 8.7% 10.9% 5.0% 6.9% 7.4% 4.5% 7.7% 0.3% 3.0% 5.0% 7.9% 5.8% 6.2% 2.7% 2.5%
Notes: 2008 Internet estimate from eMarketer. 2008 Outdoor estimate is JPM estimate. Outdoor ad spend growth provided by OAAA. Total Ad Spend does not equal Bob Coen's estimate because historical Internet estimates are
from IAB and outdoor ad spend estimates are from OAAA Miscellaneous National estimates revised for 1980-1999 as of September 8, 2004. Therefore, 1970-1979 estimates are not comparable. Miscellaneous includes point of
purchase advertising, weekly newspapers, and shoppers, as well as a host of other things like premiums, calendars, and research as well as advertising department budgets and overhead.
Source: Robert Coen, MAGNA, July 2008; OAAA; IAB/PricewaterhouseCoopers; eMarketer; J.P.Morgan.
16
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
17
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
Radio
Network radio 1,000 11.1% 1000 0.0% 1,000 0.0% 1,011 1.1% 1,051 4.0% 1,083 3.0% 1,094 1.0% 1,116 2.0% 1,132 1.5% 1,172 3.5% 1,213 3.5%
Local radio 19,819 12.1% 17,800 -10.2% 18,423 3.5% 18,570 0.8% 19,313 4.0% 19,506 1.0% 19,799 1.5% 20,095 1.5% 20,196 0.5% 19,994 -1.0% 20,294 1.5%
Total radio 20,819 12.0% 18,800 -9.7% 19,423 3.3% 19,581 0.8% 20,364 4.0% 20,589 1.1% 20,892 1.5% 21,211 1.5% 21,328 0.6% 21,166 -0.8% 21,507 1.6%
Magazines
Consumer magazines 17,700 13.5% 15,930 -10.0% 15,611 -2.0% 16,548 6.0% 17,541 6.0% 18,488 5.4% 19,228 4.0% 20,112 4.6% 20,514 2.0% 21,027 2.5% 22,079 5.0%
Business-to-business magazines 6,278 12.1% 5,610 -10.6% 5,292 -5.7% 5,164 -2.4% 5,216 1.0% 5,414 3.8% 5,576 3.0% 5,576 0.0% 5,632 1.0% 5,773 2.5% 5,917 2.5%
Total magazines 23,978 13.1% 21,540 -10.2% 20,903 -3.0% 21,712 3.9% 22,757 4.8% 23,902 5.0% 24,804 3.8% 25,688 3.6% 26,146 1.8% 26,800 2.5% 27,996 4.5%
Newspapers 48,700 11.4% 45,778 -6.0% 45,320 -1.0% 46,227 2.0% 48,538 5.0% 50,237 3.5% 51,493 2.5% 49,948 -3.0% 47,151 -5.6% 44,322 -6.0% 42,549 -4.0%
Outdoor
Billboards 2,320 5.7% 2,274 -2.0% 2,392 5.2% 2,476 3.5% 2,575 4.0% 2,678 4.0% 2,839 6.0% 3,009 6.0% 3,099 3.0% 3,192 3.0% 3,288 3.0%
Other out-of-home 2,592 9.4% 2,540 -2.0% 2,553 0.5% 2,617 2.5% 2,722 4.0% 3,048 12.0% 3,506 15.0% 4,031 15.0% 4,434 10.0% 4,878 10.0% 5,366 10.0%
Total outdoor 4,912 7.6% 4,814 -2.0% 4,945 2.7% 5,093 3.0% 5,297 4.0% 5,726 8.1% 6,344 10.8% 7,040 11.0% 7,534 7.0% 8,070 7.1% 8,654 7.2%
Internet
Display - - 2,723 3,556 30.6% 4,089 15.0% 4,665 14.1% 5,509 18.1%
Internet video/rich media - - 1,224 1,319 7.8% 1,854 40.5% 2,629 41.8% 4,073 55.0%
Classified - - 1,998 2,719 36.1% 3,127 15.0% 3,554 13.7% 4,158 17.0%
Paid search - - 4,871 6,484 33.1% 7,910 22.0% 9,328 17.9% 11,490 23.2%
Internet radio - - - - 200 286 42.6% 364 27.4%
Podcast - - - 22 25 15.0% 34 37.6% 42 21.2%
Other - - 1,674 2,011 20.2% 2,313 15.0% 2,731 18.1% 3,446 26.2%
Total internet 6,000 30.4% 6,600 10.0% 7,250 9.8% 7,758 7.0% 8,688 12.0% 9,992 15.0% 12,490 25.0% 16,111 29.0% 19,519 21.1% 23,227 19.0% 29,082 25.2%
Cinema 275 303 10.0% 339 12.0% 400 18.0% 460 15.0% 529 15.1% 608 15.0% 699 15.0% 804 15.0%
TOTAL MAJOR MEDIA 156,667 12.0% 147,246 -6.0% 149,756 1.7% 152,282 1.7% 161,487 6.0% 166,235 2.9% 174,838 5.2% 179,251 2.5% 182,030 1.6% 183,263 0.7% 190,210 3.8%
Direct mail
Addressed 32,705 34340 5.0% 33,877 -1.3% 34,894 3.0% 35,582 2.0% 36,489 2.5% 38,575 5.7% 40,875 6.0% 42,798 4.7% 44,082 3.0% 46,550 5.6%
Unaddressed 5,324 5590.2 5.0% 6,453 15.4% 6,646 3.0% 7,288 9.7% 8,010 9.9% 7,348 -8.3% 6,654 -9.4% 6,395 -3.9% 6,587 3.0% 6,956 5.6%
Total direct mail 38,029 4.8% 39,930 5.0% 40,330 1.0% 41,540 3.0% 42,869 3.2% 44,498 3.8% 45,922 3.2% 47,530 3.5% 49,193 3.5% 50,669 3.0% 53,506 5.6%
Telemarketing 45,300 45,300 0.0% 45,300 0.0% 45,300 0.0% 45,300 0.0% 45,300 0.0% 45,300 0.0% 46,100 1.8% 47,000 2.0% 47,917 2.0% 48,851 1.9%
Sales promotion
Sales promotion (consumer) 39,674 37,961 -4.3% 39,097 3.0% 39,922 2.1% 41,391 3.7% 42,635 3.0% 44,251 3.8% 45,965 3.9% 47,832 4.1% 49,897 4.3% 52,092 4.4%
Sales promotion (business) 40,129 38,161 -4.9% 38,535 1.0% 40,165 4.2% 41,658 3.7% 43,040 3.3% 44,763 4.0% 46,419 3.7% 48,269 4.0% 50,308 4.2% 52,485 4.3%
Total sales promotion 79,803 76,122 -4.6% 77,632 2.0% 80,087 3.2% 83,049 3.7% 85,675 3.2% 89,014 3.9% 92,384 3.8% 96,101 4.0% 100,205 4.3% 104,577 4.4%
Public relations 2,817 2,557 -9.2% 2,575 0.7% 2,663 3.4% 2,977 11.8% 3,349 12.5% 3,813 13.9% 4,263 11.8% 4,685 9.9% 5,158 10.1% 5,684 10.2%
Event sponsorship 8,700 9,301 6.9% 9,650 3.8% 10,251 6.2% 11,117 8.4% 12,106 8.9% 13,377 10.5% 14,929 11.6% 16,511 10.6% 18,014 9.1% 19,545 8.5%
Directories 13,200 13,600 3.0% 13,800 1.5% 14,324 3.8% 14,238 -0.6% 14,284 0.3% 14,380 0.7% 14,295 -0.6% 14,210 -0.6% 14,137 -0.5% 14,029 -0.8%
TOTAL MARKETING SERVICES 187,849 417.7% 186,810 -0.6% 189,287 1.3% 194,165 2.6% 199,551 2.8% 205,212 2.8% 211,806 3.2% 219,500 3.6% 227,701 3.7% 236,099 3.7% 246,192 4.3%
GRAND TOTAL 344,516 95.5% 334,056 -3.0% 339,043 1.5% 346,448 2.2% 361,038 4.2% 371,447 2.9% 386,644 4.1% 398,751 3.1% 409,731 2.8% 419,362 2.4% 436,403 4.1%
18
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
19
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
20
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
21
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
22
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
23
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
E
E
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
24
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
25
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
Austria 2,593 2,616 2,549 2,622 2,772 2,921 3,089 3,373 3,670 3,819 3,972
Belgium 2,492 2,414 2,661 2,954 3,190 3,343 3,982 4,287 4,476 4,659 4,841
Denmark 2,108 2,028 1,902 1,902 2,025 2,155 2,512 2,587 2,711 2,768 2,831
Finland 1,542 1,463 1,441 1,477 1,574 1,628 1,693 1,800 1,878 1,929 1,987
France 12,861 12,110 11,868 12,113 12,742 13,128 13,622 13,904 13,905 14,014 14,190
Germany 27,362 25,276 23,003 21,868 22,152 23,180 24,684 25,758 26,099 26,492 27,145
Ireland 1,065 1,198 1,417 1,589 1,908 2,007 2,306 2,536 2,609 2,501 2,531
Italy 11,047 10,683 10,330 10,711 11,472 11,748 11,877 12,249 12,300 12,443 12,720
Netherlands 5,305 5,084 4,949 4,726 4,694 4,789 4,997 5,199 5,294 5,357 5,457
Norway 2,222 2,204 2,283 2,622 2,961 3,576 3,950 4,436 5,003 5,517 6,102
Portugal 1,327 1,244 1,135 1,160 1,241 1,254 1,241 1,285 1,324 1,358 1,406
Spain 7,578 7,328 7,273 7,479 8,265 9,030 9,817 10,738 10,379 10,661 11,133
Sweden 2,732 2,434 2,338 2,342 2,450 2,701 3,041 3,273 3,417 3,512 3,716
Switzerland 3,628 3,476 3,193 2,997 2,698 2,821 3,072 3,345 3,468 3,565 3,644
UK 21,178 20,248 20,299 20,890 22,829 23,536 23,916 25,433 25,529 26,458 28,691
W estern Europe 105,041 99,807 96,642 97,452 102,973 107,816 113,797 120,203 122,062 125,055 130,366
Australia 6,756 6,278 6,445 7,044 7,910 8,473 8,891 9,831 10,355 10,788 11,263
China 5,220 5,641 6,765 8,520 9,518 11,084 13,327 15,438 18,336 20,187 22,922
Hong Kong 1,531 1,618 1,837 1,829 2,288 2,521 2,844 3,163 3,285 3,144 3,275
India 1,731 1,992 2,160 2,701 3,393 3,912 5,008 6,635 7,293 8,610 10,100
Indonesia 517 645 872 1,205 1,578 1,828 2,155 2,564 2,928 3,310 3,750
Japan 38,944 38,346 35,691 35,662 37,049 40,301 40,746 41,017 41,603 42,549 43,335
Malaysia 904 930 1,010 1,089 1,317 1,364 1,431 1,646 1,896 2,024 2,190
New Zealand 1,094 1,097 1,153 1,302 1,461 1,576 1,566 1,646 1,569 1,579 1,610
Pakistan 106 107 120 135 155 184 236 369 451 498 537
Philippines 1,331 1,513 1,683 2,045 2,454 3,019 3,114 3,340 3,719 3,971 4,152
Singapore 995 1,023 1,119 1,172 1,349 1,237 1,287 1,327 1,352 1,387 1,472
South Korea 7,327 7,236 8,394 8,259 8,276 8,628 9,279 9,967 10,264 10,719 11,265
Taiwan 1,840 1,990 2,012 2,201 1,797 1,602 1,581 1,542 1,491 1,399 1,401
Thailand 1,486 1,741 1,965 2,264 2,625 2,776 2,873 2,950 2,961 3,002 3,213
Vietnam 131 147 162 215 263 334 418 530 610 658 756
Asia Pacific 69,914 70,303 71,388 75,642 81,433 88,839 94,758 101,966 108,112 113,823 121,240
Argentina 2,675 2,569 504 825 1,001 1,271 1,554 1,817 1,996 2,178 2,375
Brazil 5,365 3,968 3,313 3,680 4,653 6,496 7,756 9,703 11,198 12,612 14,161
Chile 599 587 629 660 707 786 849 951 1,008 1,078 1,165
Colombia 1,031 1,075 1,018 960 1,026 2,551 2,914 3,277 3,681 3,703 4,004
Costa Rica 103 103 118 113 106 116 126 143 163 187 209
Ecuador 184 275 381 436 480 578 703 774 851 920 990
Mexico 3,449 3,562 3,447 3,175 3,347 3,704 4,226 4,980 5,259 5,950 6,426
Panama 173 152 165 196 223 237 275 300 292 350 325
Peru 198 184 188 223 215 253 291 344 394 447 508
Puerto Rico 1,638 1,810 1,831 1,865 1,911 1,824 1,765 1,746 1,836 1,799 1,808
Uruguay 149 100 50 43 48 47 51 56 64 67 65
Venezuela 836 847 689 593 641 679 874 915 831 981 1,127
Latin America 16,400 15,231 12,333 12,770 14,359 18,542 21,384 25,005 27,573 30,272 33,163
Armenia - - 11 21 24 34 48 64 77 88 97
Azerbaijan - - 29 37 63 89 119 158 215 289 386
Bahrain 52 66 89 100 143 118 136 139 154 161 169
Egypt 241 291 337 329 454 1,027 1,432 1,755 1,872 1,918 2,083
Israel 1,183 875 878 790 837 879 882 962 1,002 1,034 1,069
Kazakhstan - - - - - 314 651 854 1,039 1,402 1,892
Kuwait 218 252 250 276 335 395 477 501 580 637 692
Oman 28 32 52 65 76 81 88 101 109 119 128
Pan Arab 612 927 1,084 1,443 1,820 1,986 2,604 3,667 3,842 4,354 4,920
Qatar - - 73 81 89 89 172 188 158 174 193
Saudi Arabia 377 417 423 476 605 774 988 1,072 1,277 1,403 1,575
South Africa 1,260 1,369 1,635 1,854 2,179 2,714 3,475 4,340 4,725 5,321 6,410
UAE 195 243 376 566 777 973 1,234 1,612 1,707 1,923 2,254
Uzbekistan - - 2 2 5 7 9 21 24 29 37
Total 369,454 356,000 356,690 368,563 396,075 420,679 451,516 482,539 502,629 522,464 553,653
26
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
Austria 0.90 0.89 0.84 0.85 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.90 0.94 0.94 0.94
Belgium 0.72 0.68 0.73 0.78 0.80 0.81 0.92 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.96
Denmark 0.89 0.83 0.75 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.83 0.83 0.84 0.84 0.83
Finland 0.85 0.76 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.74 0.74 0.73 0.72 0.71
France 0.65 0.59 0.56 0.55 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.54 0.52 0.51 0.50
Germany 0.97 0.87 0.78 0.74 0.73 0.75 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.74
Ireland 0.74 0.75 0.79 0.83 0.94 0.91 0.96 1.00 0.98 0.89 0.85
Italy 0.68 0.63 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.60 0.59 0.58 0.57 0.56 0.56
Netherlands 0.93 0.83 0.78 0.72 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63
Norway 0.88 0.84 0.87 0.96 1.00 1.05 1.07 1.14 1.21 1.27 1.34
Portugal 0.79 0.70 0.61 0.61 0.63 0.61 0.58 0.58 0.57 0.57 0.57
Spain 0.88 0.79 0.73 0.70 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.75 0.68 0.67 0.67
Sweden 0.83 0.71 0.65 0.63 0.63 0.67 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.71 0.72
Switzerland 1.05 0.99 0.89 0.83 0.74 0.75 0.79 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83
UK 1.10 1.01 1.01 0.93 0.96 0.95 0.92 0.92 0.88 0.88 0.92
W estern Europe 0.87 0.79 0.75 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.73
Australia 1.20 1.05 1.01 1.04 1.12 1.13 1.10 1.08 1.07 1.04 1.02
China 0.40 0.39 0.43 0.48 0.45 0.45 0.48 0.48 0.49 0.47 0.47
Hong Kong 0.91 0.97 1.12 1.16 1.38 1.42 1.50 1.53 1.47 1.29 1.22
India 0.34 0.36 0.36 0.41 0.45 0.45 0.50 0.58 0.57 0.59 0.62
Indonesia 0.34 0.35 0.43 0.54 0.63 0.60 0.59 0.59 0.60 0.60 0.61
Japan 0.91 0.91 0.86 0.86 0.88 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91
Malay sia 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.89 0.96 0.90 0.86 0.88 0.93 0.92 0.91
New Zealand 1.28 1.19 1.19 1.26 1.33 1.36 1.29 1.29 1.16 1.11 1.08
Pakistan 0.17 0.15 0.16 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.19 0.26 0.27 0.26 0.25
Philippines 1.83 1.92 1.96 2.19 2.32 2.56 2.38 2.32 2.34 2.27 2.16
Singapore 0.94 1.01 1.07 1.10 1.12 0.96 0.92 0.87 0.81 0.78 0.77
South Korea 1.18 1.08 1.14 1.06 0.99 0.99 1.02 1.03 0.98 0.95 0.94
Taiwan 0.60 0.66 0.64 0.69 0.54 0.47 0.44 0.41 0.38 0.33 0.31
Thailand 1.04 1.17 1.24 1.32 1.39 1.35 1.27 1.20 1.11 1.04 1.02
Vietnam 0.47 0.49 0.48 0.56 0.59 0.64 0.69 0.74 0.68 0.63 0.61
Asia Pacific 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.80 0.80 0.81 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.74
Argentina 0.94 0.96 0.49 0.64 0.65 0.69 0.73 0.69 0.71 0.74 0.78
Brazil 0.83 0.72 0.65 0.67 0.70 0.74 0.73 0.74 0.81 0.88 0.95
Chile 0.77 0.70 0.71 0.67 0.63 0.62 0.57 0.59 0.56 0.55 0.55
Colombia 1.23 1.31 1.25 1.21 1.05 2.08 2.14 1.88 2.02 1.94 2.00
Costa Rica 0.65 0.63 0.70 0.65 0.57 0.58 0.57 0.47 0.51 0.56 0.59
Ecuador 1.15 1.31 1.79 1.75 1.68 1.77 1.89 1.87 1.93 1.94 1.94
Mex ico 0.59 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.50 0.55 0.57 0.63 0.66
Panama 1.49 1.29 1.34 1.52 1.57 1.53 1.60 1.42 1.20 1.28 1.06
Peru 0.37 0.34 0.33 0.37 0.31 0.32 0.31 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.39
Puerto Rico 2.65 2.61 2.56 2.49 2.42 1.99 1.70 1.60 1.58 1.44 1.34
Uruguay 0.74 0.54 0.41 0.38 0.36 0.28 0.27 0.25 0.27 0.28 0.26
Venezuela 0.71 0.69 0.74 0.71 0.59 0.54 0.57 0.46 0.32 0.27 0.23
Latin America 0.83 0.79 0.72 0.72 0.70 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.77 0.80 0.82
Armenia 0.00 0.00 0.27 0.44 0.43 0.52 0.62 0.82 0.98 1.13 1.25
Azerbaijan 0.00 0.00 0.42 0.45 0.63 0.61 0.58 0.66 0.74 0.83 0.93
Bahrain 0.65 0.84 1.06 1.03 1.27 0.88 0.95 0.88 0.89 0.85 0.81
Egy pt 0.40 0.46 0.51 0.45 0.53 1.09 1.32 1.37 1.25 1.10 1.03
Israel 0.99 0.72 0.70 0.62 0.62 0.61 0.57 0.59 0.59 0.57 0.56
Kazakhstan - - - - - 0.50 0.79 0.86 0.85 0.99 1.16
Kuwait 0.53 0.67 0.61 0.55 0.54 0.46 0.46 0.44 0.45 0.44 0.43
Oman 0.14 0.16 0.26 0.30 0.31 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.23
Qatar - - 0.26 0.34 0.28 0.21 0.33 0.36 0.23 0.26 0.23
Saudi Arabia 0.20 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.24 0.25 0.28 0.28 0.30 0.30 0.30
South Africa 0.96 0.95 0.99 1.04 1.10 1.24 1.41 1.56 1.51 1.54 1.69
UAE 0.28 0.35 0.50 0.64 0.75 0.73 0.77 0.85 0.77 0.78 0.81
Uzbekistan - - 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12
Total 1.05 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.90 0.89 0.90
27
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
Austria 197.7 206.3 227.1 252.4 291.8 319.7 321.4 311.9 319.3 336.0 352.3 370.9
Belgium 150.9 154.2 175.3 204.8 223.5 244.6 235.9 259.1 286.2 307.9 321.4 381.7
Denmark 328.8 341.9 370.7 387.8 372.6 394.8 381.3 354.3 352.8 374.9 397.6 462.5
Finland 206.0 211.8 233.2 258.5 276.7 297.8 281.9 277.2 282.9 301.0 310.1 321.2
France 171.4 175.3 181.1 195.1 214.5 217.3 203.6 198.3 201.1 210.2 215.3 222.1
Germany 266.4 269.8 279.1 292.4 307.9 332.4 306.8 278.9 264.8 268.1 280.5 298.7
Ireland 130.8 143.6 168.1 184.7 207.8 280.2 310.3 360.5 398.3 468.8 484.7 546.5
Italy 114.1 123.0 134.9 149.2 166.9 191.5 187.5 180.7 185.9 197.2 200.4 201.7
Netherlands 223.7 246.3 265.3 293.5 311.3 333.2 316.8 306.4 291.4 288.3 293.5 305.8
Norway 306.1 362.2 394.9 419.2 450.3 494.9 488.7 502.9 575.0 645.2 774.0 847.6
Portugal 58.3 69.5 83.4 97.4 117.0 129.7 121.1 109.6 111.4 118.5 119.1 117.3
Spain 123.3 127.4 132.1 147.6 170.7 188.4 179.9 175.7 177.7 193.1 208.1 223.7
Sweden 219.6 219.1 236.7 262.7 270.9 308.0 273.8 262.1 261.4 272.2 298.8 335.0
Switzerland 412.9 401.3 396.5 421.5 466.5 499.8 476.8 436.1 407.2 365.1 380.2 412.3
UK 238.6 256.4 286.0 312.9 330.9 359.7 342.5 341.8 350.0 380.7 390.7 395.2
W estern Europe 197.7 206.0 219.4 237.5 256.2 278.1 263.7 254.0 254.6 267.3 278.4 292.5
Australia 274.6 272.8 297.5 318.1 328.1 353.0 324.1 328.8 355.0 393.9 417.2 433.1
China 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.4 5.3 6.6 7.3 8.4 10.1
Hong Kong 314.5 338.1 406.0 418.8 470.9 229.9 239.7 269.0 265.1 327.8 357.0 398.9
India 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.4 4.3
Indonesia 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.8 2.4 3.0 4.0 5.5 7.1 8.1 9.4
Japan 275.8 294.8 304.5 291.8 286.0 306.6 301.3 280.0 279.4 289.9 315.1 318.5
Malay sia 28.5 33.6 35.9 29.0 33.0 38.8 39.1 41.6 44.0 52.3 53.2 54.8
New Zealand 265.0 271.9 274.2 267.3 276.9 284.3 281.2 292.0 325.4 360.7 384.5 378.3
Pakistan 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5
Philippines 7.9 10.0 12.9 13.5 15.3 17.5 19.4 21.2 25.2 29.6 35.7 36.1
Singapore 197.8 205.2 228.3 205.8 205.8 247.6 249.4 268.9 277.7 315.9 285.7 293.9
South Korea 83.0 96.3 114.1 84.5 113.1 156.6 153.8 177.5 173.9 173.6 180.2 193.1
Taiwan 117.0 62.0 72.5 90.9 82.9 82.8 89.1 89.6 97.6 79.4 70.6 69.4
Thailand 20.6 22.9 22.4 17.1 22.7 24.5 28.5 31.9 36.4 41.9 44.1 45.3
Vietnam 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.7 3.2 4.0 5.0
Asia Pacific 18.9 19.9 21.2 20.3 20.9 22.2 22.1 22.2 23.3 24.8 26.7 28.2
Argentina 83.4 87.7 97.4 99.9 88.6 72.5 68.9 13.4 21.7 26.1 32.8 39.7
Brazil 31.9 37.3 40.1 38.0 25.1 30.8 22.5 18.5 20.2 25.2 34.8 41.0
Chile 33.3 40.2 43.1 39.1 37.1 38.9 37.6 39.9 41.4 43.9 48.2 51.5
Colombia 18.5 22.7 24.3 27.3 24.7 24.7 25.4 23.7 22.0 23.2 56.8 64.0
Costa Rica - - - - - 26.3 25.8 28.7 27.1 24.9 26.7 28.6
Ecuador 9.4 10.3 27.3 26.4 14.0 14.9 22.1 30.2 34.1 37.2 44.3 53.3
Mex ico 14.6 18.7 26.8 27.4 30.0 34.6 35.3 33.9 31.0 32.4 35.5 40.1
Panama 40.7 47.2 48.4 53.9 62.4 58.6 50.5 53.9 62.8 70.1 73.4 83.6
Peru 14.7 12.5 13.6 11.7 9.1 7.7 7.1 7.1 8.4 8.0 9.3 10.5
Puerto Rico 242.3 277.1 335.0 361.1 402.1 429.8 471.3 473.2 480.8 490.1 465.4 450.3
Uruguay 44.8 49.9 52.6 55.0 51.5 45.0 30.1 15.0 13.0 14.5 14.2 15.4
Venezuela 25.8 22.7 20.9 29.1 31.7 34.2 34.0 27.2 23.0 24.4 25.4 32.1
Latin America 31.0 35.1 40.1 40.2 34.5 36.9 33.8 27.0 27.7 30.7 39.2 44.7
Total 55.5 58.5 62.6 65.2 70.3 75.9 72.3 71.5 73.1 77.8 82.2 87.4
Source: ZenithOptimedia. October 2008.
28
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
29
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
30
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
31
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
Austria 655 636 -3.0% 624 -1.8% 634 1.6% 680 7.3% 695 2.2% 746 7.3% 817 9.5% 872 6.7% 906 3.9% 944 4.2%
Belgium 1,070 1,110 3.7% 1,184 6.6% 1,293 9.3% 1,374 6.2% 1,343 -2.2% 1,466 9.1% 1,590 8.4% 1,679 5.6% 1,742 3.8% 1,809 3.8%
Denmark 335 321 -4.2% 308 -4.1% 354 15.0% 390 10.3% 414 6.1% 454 9.6% 463 2.0% 468 1.0% 477 2.0% 486 2.0%
Finland 291 267 -8.4% 275 3.1% 283 3.0% 311 9.7% 316 1.8% 332 5.2% 359 7.9% 381 6.1% 394 3.6% 411 4.2%
France 4,168 3,923 -5.9% 3,998 1.9% 3,879 -3.0% 4,385 13.1% 4,429 1.0% 4,629 4.5% 4,804 3.8% 4,718 -1.8% 4,784 1.4% 4,851 1.4%
Germany 6,445 6,117 -5.1% 5,415 -11.5% 5,216 -3.7% 5,283 1.3% 5,379 1.8% 5,631 4.7% 5,688 1.0% 5,742 0.9% 5,765 0.4% 5,835 1.2%
Ireland 273 270 -1.3% 283 5.1% 267 -5.8% 344 28.7% 393 14.3% 446 13.6% 512 14.7% 527 2.9% 534 1.3% 541 1.3%
Italy 5,658 5,480 -3.1% 5,513 0.6% 5,782 4.9% 6,361 10.0% 6,532 2.7% 6,434 -1.5% 6,512 1.2% 6,574 1.0% 6,646 1.1% 6,739 1.4%
Netherlands 1,001 951 -4.9% 999 5.0% 1,021 2.2% 1,036 1.5% 1,066 2.9% 1,109 4.0% 1,181 6.5% 1,204 2.0% 1,216 1.0% 1,253 3.0%
Norway 790 780 -1.3% 760 -2.5% 839 10.3% 886 5.7% 972 9.6% 1,010 4.0% 1,099 8.7% 1,165 6.0% 1,211 4.0% 1,235 2.0%
Portugal 710 663 -6.7% 609 -8.1% 635 4.2% 690 8.7% 708 2.6% 701 -0.9% 729 3.9% 748 2.6% 770 3.0% 794 3.1%
Spain 3,161 2,943 -6.9% 2,989 1.6% 3,170 6.1% 3,661 15.5% 4,037 10.3% 4,351 7.8% 4,743 9.0% 4,610 -2.8% 4,656 1.0% 4,773 2.5%
Sweden 586 519 -11.4% 510 -1.8% 521 2.1% 555 6.5% 613 10.5% 673 9.7% 695 3.3% 681 -1.9% 688 1.0% 710 3.2%
Switzerland 433 412 -5.0% 439 6.7% 444 1.1% 614 38.3% 675 9.9% 741 9.8% 878 18.6% 931 6.0% 968 4.0% 998 3.0%
UK 6,661 6,026 -9.5% 6,294 4.5% 6,352 0.9% 6,791 6.9% 6,917 1.9% 6,571 -5.0% 6,767 3.0% 6,361 -6.0% 6,170 -3.0% 6,293 2.0%
Western Europe 32,238 30,417 -5.6% 30,200 -0.7% 30,690 1.6% 33,361 8.7% 34,491 3.4% 35,295 2.3% 36,836 4.4% 36,658 -0.5% 36,928 0.7% 37,671 2.0%
Australia 2,304 2,089 -9.3% 2,231 6.8% 2,453 10.0% 2,740 11.7% 2,832 3.4% 2,869 1.3% 3,146 9.6% 3,212 2.1% 3,290 2.4% 3,448 4.8%
China 2,220 2,358 6.2% 3,037 28.8% 3,352 10.4% 3,832 14.3% 4,670 21.9% 5,311 13.7% 5,823 9.6% 6,871 18.0% 7,145 4.0% 7,789 9.0%
Hong Kong 469 537 14.5% 571 6.5% 669 17.0% 675 1.0% 954 41.3% 1,036 8.6% 1,046 1.0% 1,088 3.9% 1,072 -1.4% 1,126 5.0%
India 680 808 18.9% 905 12.0% 1,013 12.0% 1,467 44.8% 1,747 19.1% 2,183 24.9% 2,521 15.5% 2,891 14.7% 3,336 15.4% 3,818 14.4%
Indonesia 297 364 22.8% 504 38.4% 705 39.7% 931 32.1% 1,070 15.0% 1,242 16.0% 1,389 11.8% 1,528 10.0% 1,681 10.0% 1,849 10.0%
Japan 17,659 17,563 -0.5% 16,434 -6.4% 16,544 0.7% 17,355 4.9% 17,334 -0.1% 17,122 -1.2% 16,969 -0.9% 16,806 -1.0% 16,820 0.1% 16,757 -0.4%
Malaysia 272 255 -6.2% 268 4.9% 289 7.9% 409 41.5% 414 1.2% 471 13.7% 566 20.2% 705 24.6% 743 5.4% 800 7.6%
New Zealand 369 353 -4.4% 380 7.7% 436 14.7% 474 8.6% 491 3.6% 472 -3.8% 482 2.0% 464 -3.7% 463 -0.3% 467 0.8%
Pakistan 47 40 -16.5% 44 12.5% 54 22.2% 69 27.3% 77 11.9% 104 34.0% 174 67.5% 218 25.3% 239 10.0% 255 6.5%
Philippines 883 1,015 14.9% 1,192 17.5% 1,482 24.3% 1,781 20.2% 2,279 28.0% 2,391 4.9% 2,589 8.3% 2,851 10.1% 3,071 7.7% 3,239 5.5%
Singapore 334 369 10.4% 462 25.0% 480 4.0% 590 22.8% 481 -18.5% 507 5.4% 453 -10.6% 453 0.0% 458 1.0% 458 0.0%
South Korea 2,227 2,114 -5.1% 2,616 23.7% 2,535 -3.1% 2,861 12.9% 2,842 -0.7% 3,077 8.3% 3,124 1.5% 3,605 15.4% 3,462 -4.0% 3,604 4.1%
Taiwan 944 982 4.1% 1,170 19.2% 1,335 14.1% 735 -45.0% 647 -11.9% 586 -9.5% 558 -4.7% 536 -4.0% 504 -6.0% 519 3.0%
Thailand 883 953 7.9% 1,082 13.6% 1,225 13.3% 1,367 11.5% 1,449 6.0% 1,549 6.9% 1,549 0.0% 1,627 5.0% 1,676 3.0% 1,760 5.0%
Vietnam 71 80 13.0% 90 12.5% 131 46.1% 166 26.5% 224 34.8% 294 31.0% 364 24.0% 437 20.0% 516 18.0% 600 16.2%
Asia Pacific 29,658 29,880 0.7% 30,986 3.7% 32,704 5.5% 35,453 8.4% 37,513 5.8% 39,213 4.5% 40,753 3.9% 43,291 6.2% 44,476 2.7% 46,486 4.5%
Argentina 1,183 1,052 -11.1% 211 -79.9% 358 69.3% 441 23.3% 601 36.2% 732 22.0% 856 16.9% 940 9.9% 1,026 9.1% 1,119 9.1%
Brazil 3,105 2,334 -24.8% 2,014 -13.7% 2,237 11.1% 2,941 31.5% 4,141 40.8% 5,021 21.2% 6,258 24.6% 7,072 13.0% 7,779 10.0% 8,557 10.0%
Chile 256 279 8.9% 312 11.6% 336 7.6% 356 6.2% 387 8.6% 422 9.2% 476 12.6% 506 6.4% 543 7.4% 589 8.4%
Colombia 598 660 10.4% 619 -6.2% 572 -7.6% 580 1.4% 1,346 132.0% 1,640 21.8% 1,846 12.6% 2,079 12.6% 2,100 1.0% 2,341 11.5%
Costa Rica 39 38 -2.3% 46 21.0% 42 -9.7% 38 -8.3% 42 11.2% 45 5.9% 49 8.1% 54 11.0% 62 15.0% 70 12.5%
Ecuador 119 198 66.4% 276 39.4% 307 11.2% 333 8.5% 408 22.6% 513 25.7% 563 9.7% 626 11.2% 688 9.9% 751 9.2%
Mexico 1,986 2,102 5.8% 2,074 -1.4% 2,086 0.6% 2,254 8.0% 2,516 11.6% 2,861 13.7% 3,419 19.5% 3,566 4.3% 4,082 14.5% 4,415 8.2%
Panama 105 95 -9.5% 113 18.9% 129 14.2% 154 19.4% 162 5.2% 194 19.8% 211 8.8% 200 -5.2% 245 22.5% 235 -4.1%
Peru 85 72 -15.3% 80 11.1% 101 26.0% 99 -1.8% 120 21.2% 136 13.3% 166 22.1% 202 21.7% 242 19.8% 290 19.8%
Puerto Rico 978 1,119 14.4% 1,104 -1.3% 1,109 0.5% 1,122 1.2% 1,037 -7.6% 968 -6.7% 954 -1.4% 1,010 5.9% 970 -4.0% 970 0.0%
Uruguay 75 51 -32.0% 25 -51.0% 22 -12.0% 25 13.6% 25 0.0% 28 12.0% 30 7.1% 34 14.0% 38 9.9% 35 -8.2%
Venezuela 614 574 -6.5% 517 -10.0% 483 -6.5% 447 -7.4% 455 1.6% 593 30.4% 567 -4.4% 428 -24.4% 514 20.0% 591 15.0%
Latin America 9,142 8,574 -6.2% 7,391 -13.8% 7,781 5.3% 8,791 13.0% 11,240 27.8% 13,154 17.0% 15,394 17.0% 16,718 8.6% 18,289 9.4% 19,962 9.2%
Total 132,516 129,436 -2.3% 132,671 2.5% 137,312 3.5% 150,204 9.4% 157,026 4.5% 168,365 7.2% 179,282 6.5% 187,512 4.6% 193,873 3.4% 203,794 5.1%
32
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
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Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
34
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
35
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
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36
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
Austria 216 222 2.7% 201 -9.4% 211 4.8% 234 11.0% 235 0.6% 233 -1.2% 233 0.0% 249 7.1% 257 3.3% 260 1.1%
Belgium 255 277 8.6% 285 2.8% 313 10.1% 346 10.3% 396 14.6% 448 12.9% 514 14.8% 522 1.5% 546 4.7% 572 4.7%
Denmark 39 43 9.9% 41 -5.1% 40 -2.7% 39 -2.3% 51 32.7% 52 1.1% 57 10.0% 60 5.0% 63 5.0% 66 5.0%
Finland 51 55 6.7% 60 10.0% 66 9.1% 66 0.0% 64 -2.1% 64 -0.4% 64 0.4% 66 2.1% 68 3.3% 71 4.0%
France 979 897 -8.4% 976 8.9% 1,018 4.3% 1,074 5.5% 1,088 1.3% 1,105 1.5% 1,050 -5.0% 1,013 -3.5% 999 -1.4% 1,013 1.4%
Germany 1,002 928 -7.4% 814 -12.2% 792 -2.7% 846 6.7% 909 7.4% 931 2.4% 947 1.8% 894 -5.6% 873 -2.3% 894 2.4%
Ireland 75 96 27.3% 89 -7.1% 119 33.8% 125 4.6% 145 16.5% 170 17.0% 192 12.9% 197 2.9% 204 3.5% 205 0.7%
Italy 621 565 -9.0% 530 -6.3% 602 13.7% 724 20.2% 731 0.9% 788 7.8% 851 8.0% 894 5.0% 940 5.2% 991 5.4%
Netherlands 320 298 -6.8% 307 2.8% 335 9.4% 342 2.0% 346 1.2% 359 3.6% 375 4.7% 389 3.5% 400 3.0% 413 3.3%
Norway 103 85 -17.2% 111 29.8% 119 7.6% 161 34.8% 195 21.3% 192 -1.5% 206 7.2% 226 10.0% 242 7.0% 254 5.0%
Portugal 84 83 -1.1% 74 -11.1% 74 0.0% 78 5.0% 76 -2.3% 71 -6.7% 69 -2.5% 69 0.0% 68 -2.0% 68 1.0%
Spain 686 670 -2.4% 663 -0.9% 695 4.8% 739 6.3% 834 12.9% 871 4.4% 927 6.5% 903 -2.6% 912 1.0% 931 2.0%
Sweden 88 75 -14.2% 70 -7.1% 66 -5.1% 73 9.6% 76 4.9% 89 17.3% 95 6.3% 100 5.5% 102 1.6% 107 4.7%
Switzerland 116 108 -7.2% 108 0.0% 106 -1.6% 108 1.6% 113 4.7% 113 0.7% 114 0.7% 114 0.0% 117 2.2% 119 2.1%
UK 907 829 -8.6% 839 1.2% 895 6.7% 927 3.6% 887 -4.3% 917 3.4% 933 1.7% 895 -4.1% 877 -2.0% 885 0.9%
Western Europe 5,543 5,230 -5.6% 5,167 -1.2% 5,452 5.5% 5,880 7.8% 6,147 4.6% 6,401 4.1% 6,628 3.5% 6,591 -0.6% 6,669 1.2% 6,849 2.7%
Czech Republic 52 51 -1.0% 83 62.8% 107 28.1% 106 -0.6% 118 11.2% 130 10.1% 139 6.6% 143 3.0% 149 4.0% 155 4.0%
Estonia 7 7 -1.5% 7 5.2% 7 2.5% 8 7.4% 8 3.4% 9 16.7% 11 22.9% 14 21.5% 16 15.0% 18 15.0%
Georgia - - - - - 0.0 0.0 #DIV/0! 5.2 #DIV/0! 6.4 21.6% 7.5 17.8% 8.6 15.0%
Greece 75 81 7.3% 100 23.7% 104 4.1% 125 19.7% 129 3.3% 131 2.1% 188 42.7% 241 28.5% 244 1.1% 271 11.2%
Hungary 66 71 8.8% 79 10.1% 87 10.4% 144 66.5% 146 1.1% 184 25.9% 215 16.9% 249 16.0% 266 6.5% 281 5.8%
Latvia 10 8 -12.2% 10 18.6% 10 3.9% 11 11.3% 14 18.6% 17 21.9% 19 14.9% 21 11.2% 23 9.2% 25 9.2%
Lithuania 6 5 -5.3% 6 19.2% 7 15.0% 8 6.2% 10 20.3% 9 -8.3% 14 59.1% 14 -2.5% 14 4.3% 15 5.4%
Poland 174 207 18.5% 254 23.0% 315 23.9% 377 19.7% 157 -58.3% 174 10.9% 180 3.5% 195 7.9% 198 1.4% 204 3.3%
Romania 5 5 11.1% 6 20.0% 7 8.3% 14 116.9% 20 41.8% 28 40.0% 35 24.3% 43 22.1% 49 15.1% 54 10.0%
Russia 45 70 55.6% 115 64.3% 155 34.8% 250 61.3% 300 20.0% 461 53.6% 615 33.5% 735 19.5% 831 13.1% 914 10.0%
Slovakia 22 30 33.7% 39 30.8% 45 13.9% 61 35.3% 70 16.3% 74 5.6% 73 -1.3% 78 5.7% 87 12.3% 99 13.5%
Slovenia - - - - 13 25 94.4% 26 4.9% 28 6.8% 27 -2.0% 29 5.0% 29 -0.5%
Turkey 76 37 -51.2% 36 -2.5% 40 10.8% 53 31.6% 60 13.2% 71 18.7% 85 20.5% 84 -1.1% 85 1.4% 93 8.8%
Ukraine - - 8 8 0.0% 14 68.8% 20 48.1% 27 35.0% 42 55.6% 60 42.9% 80 33.3% 120 50.0%
Central & Eastern Europe 541 578 6.9% 751 29.9% 903 20.3% 1,203 33.2% 1,103 -8.3% 1,373 24.5% 1,691 23.1% 1,960 15.9% 2,135 9.0% 2,351 10.1%
Australia 574 583 1.6% 589 1.0% 618 5.0% 706 14.2% 753 6.7% 776 3.0% 826 6.4% 858 4.0% 870 1.4% 895 2.9%
China 207 248 19.8% 288 16.1% 336 16.8% 433 28.8% 511 18.0% 752 47.2% 826 9.9% 991 20.0% 1,110 12.0% 1,276 15.0%
Hong Kong 88 72 -18.7% 88 23.3% 81 -8.7% 92 14.1% 101 10.2% 107 5.7% 144 34.3% 160 11.3% 145 -9.5% 149 3.0%
India 44 54 25.0% 63 15.0% 69 10.0% 57 -17.1% 80 39.8% 89 12.1% 127 42.2% 129 1.7% 146 12.5% 163 12.0%
Indonesia 20 25 28.0% 32 25.5% 38 18.9% 47 24.6% 60 27.6% 65 8.8% 93 43.0% 102 10.0% 107 5.0% 113 5.0%
Japan 1,759 1,697 -3.5% 1,560 -8.1% 1,535 -1.6% 1,524 -0.7% 1,510 -0.9% 1,481 -1.9% 1,419 -4.2% 1,374 -3.2% 1,351 -1.7% 1,325 -1.9%
Malaysia 30 35 17.6% 42 20.0% 45 6.3% 49 10.5% 52 5.3% 56 8.4% 70 24.9% 84 20.0% 93 10.0% 102 10.0%
New Zealand 140 144 3.2% 150 3.6% 165 10.3% 182 10.3% 189 3.6% 198 5.1% 202 1.9% 185 -8.4% 187 1.2% 191 2.0%
Pakistan 3 3 15.9% 3 0.0% 3 0.0% 3 0.0% 5 50.0% 6 16.7% 9 57.1% 13 38.4% 14 9.0% 14 5.9%
Philippines 234 280 19.6% 294 4.9% 356 21.2% 422 18.5% 479 13.7% 523 9.0% 520 -0.5% 617 18.7% 638 3.3% 640 0.4%
Singapore 51 76 49.9% 86 13.0% 110 27.7% 125 13.8% 118 -5.8% 102 -14.0% 96 -5.9% 96 0.0% 93 -2.8% 96 2.9%
South Korea 228 214 -5.8% 249 16.0% 245 -1.6% 235 -3.9% 241 2.6% 251 4.1% 251 0.0% 252 0.3% 254 1.0% 257 1.0%
Taiwan 71 96 35.7% 111 15.0% 113 2.0% 107 -5.9% 95 -11.1% 122 28.9% 116 -4.9% 114 -2.0% 105 -8.0% 99 -5.0%
Thailand 147 149 1.5% 179 20.1% 193 8.0% 198 2.8% 204 3.0% 216 5.7% 211 -2.5% 217 3.0% 221 2.0% 224 1.0%
Vietnam 3 2 -33.3% 2 5.0% 1 -67.0% 1 -13.5% 1 33.3% 1 6.3% 1 4.7% 1 5.6% 1 5.2% 1 -19.8%
Asia Pacific 3,597 3,680 2.3% 3,734 1.5% 3,906 4.6% 4,182 7.1% 4,399 5.2% 4,745 7.9% 4,910 3.5% 5,193 5.8% 5,334 2.7% 5,545 3.9%
Argentina 231 226 -2.2% 22 -90.2% 29 28.9% 32 11.2% 36 13.6% 41 14.1% 49 19.0% 50 1.8% 55 9.0% 59 9.0%
Brazil 263 189 -28.2% 152 -19.6% 166 9.7% 207 24.3% 280 35.5% 335 19.6% 403 20.2% 500 24.0% 600 20.0% 720 20.0%
Chile 63 60 -5.5% 60 0.1% 61 1.9% 58 -4.9% 65 12.0% 63 -2.2% 66 4.1% 67 0.9% 70 5.4% 75 6.3%
Colombia 167 99 -40.7% 104 5.1% 93 -10.6% 112 20.0% 423 279.0% 424 0.2% 483 13.9% 551 14.1% 550 -0.2% 535 -2.7%
Costa Rica 14 18 23.3% 22 22.8% 22 0.6% 20 -9.4% 23 17.0% 24 5.3% 26 6.6% 28 7.0% 30 8.0% 32 6.6%
Ecuador 26 28 7.7% 38 35.7% 47 23.7% 50 6.4% 55 10.4% 56 0.7% 69 24.1% 72 4.3% 75 4.2% 77 2.7%
Mexico 530 494 -6.8% 497 0.7% 325 -34.6% 342 5.3% 382 11.7% 439 14.7% 515 17.4% 640 24.2% 711 11.2% 756 6.2%
Panama 10 7 -30.0% 7 0.0% 8 14.3% 10 25.0% 8 -20.0% 8 0.0% 10 25.0% 8 -20.0% 10 25.0% 8 -20.0%
Peru 22 21 -4.5% 21 0.0% 16 -21.7% 26 58.1% 30 15.4% 35 16.7% 39 11.4% 41 5.1% 43 4.9% 45 4.7%
Puerto Rico 111 118 6.3% 119 0.8% 100 -16.0% 116 16.0% 120 3.4% 122 1.7% 116 -4.9% 125 7.8% 120 -4.0% 120 0.0%
Uruguay 22 12 -45.5% 7 -41.7% 5 -22.9% 6 1.9% 6 0.0% 6 9.1% 7 8.3% 8 16.8% 7 -6.5% 8 9.0%
Venezuela 23 41 79.8% 22 -47.5% 13 -41.6% 30 140.1% 44 43.4% 41 -7.0% 36 -11.3% 47 30.0% 58 25.0% 67 15.0%
Latin America 1,482 1,312 -11.5% 1,070 -18.5% 885 -17.3% 1,008 13.9% 1,472 46.0% 1,594 8.3% 1,818 14.1% 2,135 17.4% 2,329 9.1% 2,501 7.4%
Egypt 1 0 -16.1% 1 34.6% 4 528.6% 24 513.2% 27 14.2% 47 74.1% 58 23.4% 60 3.4% 62 3.3% 70 12.9%
Israel 97 60 -37.9% 65 6.9% 58 -9.8% 57 -2.5% 61 8.2% 57 -7.1% 57 0.0% 57 0.0% 58 2.1% 60 3.8%
South Africa 174 171 -1.4% 204 19.4% 243 18.8% 274 13.0% 397 44.8% 447 12.5% 497 11.2% 547 10.0% 602 10.0% 674 12.0%
Total 33,188 30,810 -7.2% 31,423 2.0% 32,126 2.2% 34,123 6.2% 35,456 3.9% 36,986 4.3% 38,392 3.8% 39,468 2.8% 40,032 1.4% 41,325 3.2%
37
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
38
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
39
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
40
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
41
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
42
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
43
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
Austria 987 975 -1.2% 935 -4.1% 976 4.4% 1,035 6.0% 1,140 10.2% 1,207 5.9% 1,333 10.4% 1,448 8.6% 1,497 3.4% 1,540 2.8%
Belgium 558 384 -31.1% 528 37.6% 646 22.2% 727 12.5% 811 11.5% 1,199 47.9% 1,234 2.9% 1,256 1.8% 1,278 1.8% 1,300 1.8%
Denmark 1,025 962 -6.1% 881 -8.5% 865 -1.8% 921 6.5% 1,003 9.0% 1,095 9.1% 1,102 0.7% 1,113 1.0% 1,091 -2.0% 1,069 -2.0%
Finland 872 820 -6.0% 794 -3.2% 816 2.8% 865 6.0% 880 1.7% 905 2.8% 945 4.4% 964 2.0% 976 1.3% 995 2.0%
France 2,469 2,263 -8.4% 2,116 -6.5% 2,048 -3.2% 2,102 2.7% 2,135 1.6% 2,157 1.0% 2,102 -2.5% 2,063 -1.9% 2,022 -2.0% 1,981 -2.0%
Germany 11,900 10,634 -10.6% 9,585 -9.9% 8,913 -7.0% 9,127 2.4% 9,195 0.7% 9,343 1.6% 9,442 1.1% 9,370 -0.8% 9,294 -0.8% 9,225 -0.7%
Ireland 590 678 14.8% 860 26.9% 998 16.1% 1,225 22.8% 1,236 0.9% 1,421 15.0% 1,481 4.2% 1,519 2.6% 1,403 -7.7% 1,419 1.2%
Italy 2,488 2,336 -6.1% 2,175 -6.9% 2,164 -0.5% 2,198 1.6% 2,220 1.0% 2,226 0.2% 2,299 3.3% 2,265 -1.5% 2,273 0.4% 2,293 0.9%
Netherlands 2,436 2,341 -3.9% 2,191 -6.4% 2,044 -6.7% 1,974 -3.4% 1,960 -0.7% 2,016 2.9% 2,096 4.0% 2,128 1.5% 2,147 0.9% 2,177 1.4%
Norway 948 962 1.5% 1,012 5.1% 1,185 17.2% 1,370 15.6% 1,553 13.3% 1,678 8.1% 1,850 10.2% 1,987 7.4% 2,086 5.0% 2,149 3.0%
Portugal 135 122 -9.8% 98 -19.8% 95 -3.0% 97 3.0% 96 -2.0% 92 -4.0% 92 0.0% 93 1.9% 92 -1.9% 93 1.0%
Spain 2,315 2,180 -5.8% 2,095 -3.9% 2,046 -2.3% 2,166 5.9% 2,280 5.2% 2,449 7.4% 2,592 5.8% 2,306 -11.0% 2,318 0.5% 2,353 1.5%
Sweden 1,382 1,232 -10.8% 1,143 -7.2% 1,150 0.6% 1,162 1.0% 1,228 5.7% 1,309 6.6% 1,350 3.1% 1,326 -1.8% 1,319 -0.6% 1,354 2.7%
Switzerland 1,875 1,792 -4.4% 1,551 -13.4% 1,372 -11.6% 945 -31.1% 964 2.0% 1,107 14.8% 1,179 6.6% 1,221 3.5% 1,251 2.5% 1,276 2.0%
UK 8,534 8,338 -2.3% 8,182 -1.9% 8,279 1.2% 8,691 5.0% 8,348 -3.9% 7,991 -4.3% 7,957 -0.4% 7,569 -4.9% 7,402 -2.2% 7,474 1.0%
Western Europe 38,513 36,017 -6.5% 34,145 -5.2% 33,596 -1.6% 34,605 3.0% 35,049 1.3% 36,195 3.3% 37,053 2.4% 36,628 -1.1% 36,448 -0.5% 36,698 0.7%
Croatia 36 53 48.4% 59 10.2% 87 49.5% 101 15.7% 110 8.5% 143 30.2% 162 13.0% 195 20.6% 242 24.1% 297 22.9%
Czech Republic 272 269 -1.2% 320 18.8% 337 5.3% 385 14.2% 400 4.0% 462 15.6% 430 -7.1% 463 7.8% 481 3.9% 495 3.0%
Estonia 27 32 17.1% 32 2.1% 35 9.3% 39 9.7% 44 14.3% 51 15.7% 63 23.0% 58 -7.0% 60 3.0% 64 7.0%
Greece 322 270 -16.2% 275 2.0% 326 18.4% 397 21.8% 454 14.5% 516 13.6% 563 9.0% 568 1.0% 571 0.5% 580 1.6%
Hungary 180 204 13.3% 215 5.7% 241 12.0% 273 13.2% 293 7.4% 289 -1.5% 294 1.9% 303 3.0% 315 4.0% 317 0.6%
Latvia 21 25 17.6% 27 11.0% 27 -1.4% 29 5.8% 34 19.0% 37 8.2% 40 9.4% 42 4.3% 44 3.7% 45 3.1%
Lithuania 39 43 9.6% 47 9.2% 51 9.0% 60 18.0% 63 4.5% 70 11.3% 73 4.0% 74 1.0% 75 1.3% 76 2.1%
Poland 377 392 3.9% 387 -1.1% 553 42.8% 689 24.5% 256 -62.8% 267 4.0% 275 2.9% 281 2.3% 279 -0.5% 286 2.2%
Romania 20 18 -10.0% 20 11.1% 22 10.0% 34 55.9% 34 0.3% 38 9.9% 44 17.5% 62 39.6% 72 16.0% 78 7.9%
Russia 240 310 29.2% 495 59.7% 585 18.2% 730 24.8% - - - - - -
Slovakia 36 46 27.4% 48 5.4% 59 23.2% 71 20.4% 80 11.4% 79 -1.2% 88 12.1% 99 12.9% 111 11.3% 124 11.7%
Slovenia 31 36 15.1% 47 30.5% 52 12.2% 64 22.8% 98 52.5% 117 18.9% 138 18.3% 157 13.9% 161 2.6% 164 1.7%
Turkey 367 206 -43.9% 241 16.9% 281 16.7% 431 53.4% 599 38.9% 640 6.8% 760 18.7% 742 -2.3% 735 -1.0% 739 0.6%
Central & Eastern Europe 1,991 1,925 -3.3% 2,262 17.5% 2,749 21.5% 3,412 24.1% 2,619 -23.2% 2,891 10.4% 3,199 10.6% 3,356 4.9% 3,494 4.1% 3,651 4.5%
Australia 2,818 2,627 -6.8% 2,555 -2.7% 2,780 8.8% 3,051 9.7% 3,180 4.2% 3,182 0.1% 3,419 7.5% 3,493 2.2% 3,543 1.4% 3,596 1.5%
China 1,925 2,073 7.7% 2,478 19.5% 3,194 28.9% 3,033 -5.1% 3,366 11.0% 4,109 22.1% 4,235 3.1% 4,405 4.0% 4,449 1.0% 4,582 3.0%
Hong Kong 704 710 0.9% 848 19.3% 775 -8.6% 1,043 34.7% 952 -8.8% 1,122 17.8% 1,193 6.4% 1,199 0.5% 1,102 -8.1% 1,135 3.0%
India 848 781 -7.9% 846 8.3% 1,275 50.8% 1,432 12.3% 1,620 13.1% 2,131 31.6% 3,181 49.3% 3,304 3.8% 3,882 17.5% 4,516 16.3%
Indonesia 140 189 35.2% 255 35.1% 325 27.5% 437 34.4% 507 16.0% 625 23.3% 817 30.8% 997 22.0% 1,197 20.0% 1,436 20.0%
Japan 10,594 10,265 -3.1% 9,093 -11.4% 8,917 -1.9% 8,967 0.6% 8,813 -1.7% 8,481 -3.8% 8,036 -5.2% 7,749 -3.6% 7,591 -2.0% 7,413 -2.3%
Malaysia 543 563 3.8% 636 13.0% 688 8.1% 777 13.0% 808 3.9% 797 -1.3% 892 11.8% 981 10.0% 1,049 7.0% 1,133 8.0%
New Zealand 439 447 1.7% 463 3.6% 508 9.7% 582 14.7% 612 5.1% 597 -2.4% 609 2.0% 599 -1.6% 604 0.7% 607 0.6%
Pakistan 39 47 21.6% 50 5.3% 53 6.7% 57 5.9% 64 12.8% 74 15.8% 99 34.8% 120 20.5% 134 11.6% 149 11.1%
Philippines 214 163 -24.0% 156 -4.4% 165 6.1% 188 14.1% 185 -1.6% 165 -11.2% 190 15.3% 205 8.0% 222 8.0% 234 5.4%
Singapore 498 451 -9.4% 459 1.8% 453 -1.4% 491 8.5% 487 -0.8% 503 3.3% 547 8.8% 559 2.1% 570 2.0% 597 4.8%
South Korea 3,650 3,621 -0.8% 3,999 10.4% 3,992 -0.2% 3,609 -9.6% 3,681 2.0% 3,771 2.5% 4,111 9.0% 4,120 0.2% 4,326 5.0% 4,629 7.0%
Taiwan 577 667 15.7% 449 -32.8% 428 -4.5% 557 30.0% 478 -14.1% 455 -5.0% 421 -7.5% 391 -7.0% 352 -10.0% 331 -6.0%
Thailand 315 477 51.2% 509 6.8% 575 12.9% 716 24.5% 717 0.1% 672 -6.3% 691 2.8% 670 -3.0% 677 1.0% 683 1.0%
Vietnam 37 43 16.5% 48 11.6% 66 37.8% 51 -22.9% 59 16.5% 68 15.0% 79 15.1% 90 15.0% 104 14.5% 117 12.6%
Asia Pacific 23,342 23,124 -0.9% 22,844 -1.2% 24,196 5.9% 24,993 3.3% 25,528 2.1% 26,751 4.8% 28,521 6.6% 28,883 1.3% 29,800 3.2% 31,158 4.6%
Argentina 654 808 23.5% 200 -75.2% 332 65.9% 379 14.2% 441 16.5% 533 20.7% 571 7.2% 613 7.3% 645 5.2% 679 5.4%
Brazil 1,154 844 -26.8% 664 -21.3% 664 -0.1% 796 19.9% 1,087 36.5% 1,244 14.5% 1,631 31.1% 1,908 17.0% 2,195 15.0% 2,524 15.0%
Chile 207 180 -13.1% 189 5.1% 187 -1.0% 206 10.4% 231 12.1% 248 7.1% 272 9.8% 284 4.5% 299 5.1% 317 6.1%
Colombia 203 250 23.2% 232 -7.2% 230 -0.9% 258 12.3% 348 34.7% 391 12.4% 430 10.0% 460 7.0% 462 0.4% 514 11.3%
Ecuador 33 41 24.2% 56 36.6% 68 21.4% 79 16.2% 89 12.7% 107 19.8% 109 2.2% 115 5.5% 116 0.9% 118 1.7%
Mexico 541 557 2.9% 547 -1.7% 417 -23.7% 412 -1.3% 435 5.7% 502 15.3% 570 13.5% 630 10.5% 694 10.3% 748 7.8%
Panama 58 50 -13.8% 45 -10.0% 50 11.1% 50 0.0% 54 8.0% 58 7.4% 62 6.9% 67 8.1% 75 11.9% 67 -10.7%
Peru 66 63 -4.5% 60 -4.8% 78 30.3% 58 -25.8% 60 3.4% 68 13.3% 75 10.3% 78 4.0% 80 2.6% 83 3.8%
Puerto Rico 489 478 -2.2% 508 6.3% 549 8.1% 572 4.2% 568 -0.7% 562 -1.1% 555 -1.2% 570 2.7% 568 -0.4% 568 0.0%
Venezuela 121 142 17.5% 85 -40.0% 55 -35.6% 97 75.7% 101 4.9% 146 44.4% 198 35.3% 228 15.0% 262 15.0% 298 14.0%
Latin America 3,602 3,468 -3.7% 2,631 -24.1% 2,674 1.6% 2,948 10.3% 3,456 17.2% 3,903 12.9% 4,524 15.9% 5,012 10.8% 5,465 9.0% 5,994 9.7%
Bahrain - - 55 66 20.1% 90 35.5% 77 -14.3% 89 14.9% 101 13.9% 110 9.1% 117 6.6% 125 6.5%
Egypt 124 163 32.2% 185 13.5% 188 1.5% 252 33.9% 297 17.8% 373 25.6% 432 15.8% 496 14.8% 501 1.0% 580 15.8%
Israel 695 461 -33.7% 442 -4.1% 367 -16.9% 371 1.2% 389 4.7% 374 -3.9% 378 1.2% 379 0.3% 380 0.3% 380 0.0%
Kuwait 146 175 19.5% 183 4.7% 212 15.8% 250 17.7% 284 14.0% 343 20.7% 377 10.0% 418 10.8% 470 12.4% 521 10.7%
Oman 23 25 7.2% 38 54.3% 45 19.1% 50 9.6% 61 24.1% 69 13.1% 80 15.2% 88 9.8% 98 11.3% 107 9.2%
Pan Arab 7 17 132.1% 39 125.6% 62 60.2% 86 39.5% 106 22.7% 104 -1.3% 100 -4.0% 102 2.0% 99 -3.6% 98 -0.5%
Qatar - - 66 71 6.8% 81 14.4% 87 6.8% 157 81.4% 169 7.2% 145 -13.8% 163 11.9% 182 11.7%
Saudi Arabia 269 295 9.6% 312 6.0% 340 8.9% 424 24.7% 582 37.2% 644 10.7% 727 12.8% 890 22.4% 1,000 12.5% 1,160 15.9%
South Africa 351 358 1.9% 442 23.5% 487 10.3% 559 14.8% 698 24.9% 832 19.1% 963 15.8% 1,078 12.0% 1,154 7.0% 1,269 10.0%
UAE 126 164 30.1% 260 59.1% 379 45.6% 524 38.2% 714 36.1% 863 21.0% 1,138 31.8% 1,262 11.0% 1,489 17.9% 1,809 21.5%
Total 120,292 114,297 -5.0% 111,564 -2.4% 114,016 2.2% 119,619 4.9% 122,661 2.5% 127,538 4.0% 130,108 2.0% 128,364 -1.3% 127,317 -0.8% 128,548 1.0%
Source: ZenithOptimedia, October 2008.
44
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
$750
$700
$650
$600
$550
$500
$450
$400
1Q88
3Q88
1Q89
3Q89
1Q90
3Q90
1Q91
3Q91
1Q92
3Q92
1Q93
3Q93
1Q94
3Q94
1Q95
3Q95
1Q96
3Q96
1Q97
3Q97
1Q98
3Q98
1Q99
3Q99
1Q00
3Q00
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
45
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
1
8
9
0
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
Source: NAA; Business Analysis and Research; J.P.Morgan.
Automotive, 6.9%
Coupon Marketing
Organizations, 15.4%
Other, 31.8%
Transportation / Travel,
14.0% Public Service Utilities /
Comm, 20.1%
Note: Other includes such categories as alcoholic beverages, apparel, business, computer equipment, farm/lawn, foods,
home furnishings, industrial/office, jewelry/tableware, medical, pet supplies, photography, political/gov't, tobacco, and
sports/leisure.
Source: NAA; Business Analysis and Research; J.P.Morgan.
46
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
Source: U.S. Census Economic Statistics; NAA; Business Analysis and Research; J.P.Morgan.
Computers /
Electronics, 10.9%
Financial, 18.1%
Other, 18.6%
Food, 8.6%
Home Supplies /
Furniture, 15.2%
General Merchandise,
29.3%
Note: Other includes such categories as hobby/craft, toy, sports, records, books, and cards, farm equipment dealers and services, and
automotive aftermarket.
Source: NAA; Business Analysis and Research; J.P.Morgan.
47
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
1
8
9
0
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
Source: NAA; Business Analysis and Research; J.P.Morgan.
Classified Other,
18.2%
Classified Real
Estate, 30.4%
Classified
Employment,
27.9%
Classified Auto,
23.5%
48
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
49
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
50
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
51
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
Austria 567 600 5.8% 590 -1.6% 583 -1.2% 589 0.9% 578 -1.9% 600 3.8% 646 7.8% 705 9.1% 725 2.9% 746 2.8%
Belgium 336 353 5.0% 369 4.5% 371 0.6% 386 4.0% 384 -0.5% 392 2.2% 412 4.9% 431 4.8% 441 2.1% 450 2.1%
Denmark 133 127 -4.3% 115 -9.7% 113 -1.4% 120 6.0% 132 9.8% 148 12.4% 147 -0.9% 150 2.0% 153 2.0% 156 2.0%
Finland 261 252 -3.7% 245 -2.7% 244 -0.6% 253 3.9% 266 4.9% 274 3.1% 288 5.0% 294 2.3% 298 1.4% 302 1.4%
France 3,333 3,226 -3.2% 3,056 -5.3% 2,947 -3.6% 2,929 -0.6% 2,885 -1.5% 2,873 -0.4% 2,772 -3.5% 2,674 -3.5% 2,589 -3.2% 2,511 -3.0%
Germany 6,545 6,072 -7.2% 5,682 -6.4% 5,417 -4.6% 5,338 -1.5% 5,324 -0.3% 5,489 3.1% 5,547 1.1% 5,359 -3.4% 5,226 -2.5% 5,200 -0.5%
Ireland 21 23 13.3% 33 41.2% 47 41.7% 44 -5.9% 55 25.0% 55 0.0% 56 2.5% 59 4.9% 53 -9.3% 55 2.6%
Italy 1,585 1,627 2.7% 1,491 -8.4% 1,506 1.0% 1,512 0.5% 1,549 2.4% 1,642 6.0% 1,683 2.5% 1,653 -1.8% 1,656 0.2% 1,668 0.7%
Netherlands 1,288 1,266 -1.7% 1,211 -4.3% 1,095 -9.6% 1,053 -3.9% 1,068 1.4% 1,095 2.6% 1,104 0.9% 1,101 -0.3% 1,094 -0.7% 1,081 -1.2%
Norway 264 272 3.2% 273 0.3% 301 10.2% 329 9.3% 342 3.8% 356 4.2% 379 6.6% 394 4.0% 406 3.0% 418 3.0%
Portugal 247 219 -11.3% 198 -9.5% 198 0.0% 200 1.0% 203 1.3% 203 -0.3% 206 1.6% 206 0.0% 207 0.5% 211 2.0%
Spain 846 848 0.2% 807 -4.8% 822 1.9% 909 10.5% 923 1.5% 941 2.0% 988 4.9% 944 -4.4% 954 1.0% 973 2.0%
Sweden 387 354 -8.5% 328 -7.3% 304 -7.2% 319 4.9% 334 4.7% 357 6.9% 369 3.1% 351 -4.8% 337 -4.0% 350 3.8%
Switzerland 653 613 -6.0% 571 -6.9% 547 -4.2% 639 16.9% 663 3.7% 673 1.6% 727 7.9% 738 1.5% 748 1.5% 760 1.6%
UK 3,453 3,387 -1.9% 3,204 -5.4% 3,134 -2.2% 3,252 3.8% 3,217 -1.1% 3,111 -3.3% 2,992 -3.8% 2,852 -4.7% 2,786 -2.3% 2,808 0.8%
Western Europe 19,919 19,240 -3.4% 18,173 -5.5% 17,629 -3.0% 17,872 1.4% 17,921 0.3% 18,208 1.6% 18,314 0.6% 17,911 -2.2% 17,673 -1.3% 17,688 0.1%
Belarus - - - - - - - - - - -
Bosnia & Herzegovina 2 2 -11.8% 3 26.7% 2 -36.8% 7 300.0% 5 -16.7% 7 25.0% 7 0.0% 8 20.0% 8 0.0% 10 16.7%
Bulgaria 5 6 33.4% 19 200.5% 12 -40.1% 18 52.9% 30 69.2% 41 37.5% 57 38.1% 65 14.8% 77 18.4% 89 14.9%
Croatia 27 36 30.8% 50 41.4% 58 14.6% 72 25.0% 82 14.3% 102 24.0% 118 15.7% 142 19.9% 158 11.2% 177 12.2%
Czech Republic 285 306 7.4% 319 4.2% 341 7.0% 381 11.7% 431 13.1% 482 11.8% 523 8.7% 538 2.8% 557 3.6% 585 5.0%
Estonia 8 9 6.3% 9 11.0% 9 -0.3% 10 6.5% 12 16.5% 13 14.9% 17 24.0% 16 -7.0% 16 2.0% 21 31.4%
Georgia - - - - - - - - - - -
Greece 579 658 13.7% 745 13.1% 845 13.4% 990 17.2% 1,105 11.6% 1,213 9.8% 1,313 8.2% 1,400 6.7% 1,440 2.8% 1,449 0.6%
Hungary 173 196 13.3% 212 8.3% 239 12.7% 261 9.4% 285 9.3% 314 10.1% 324 3.0% 341 5.2% 350 2.8% 358 2.3%
Latvia 5 7 45.8% 9 34.3% 11 23.4% 13 17.2% 15 16.2% 22 41.6% 32 45.7% 35 9.8% 38 7.8% 39 4.1%
Lithuania 14 15 8.3% 18 14.9% 20 16.9% 23 12.8% 25 7.9% 32 27.0% 39 23.8% 42 7.0% 45 7.9% 49 8.8%
Moldova - - - - - 0 1 54.3% 1 20.0% 1 -11.1% 1 25.0% 1 25.0%
Poland 406 453 11.6% 452 -0.3% 518 14.7% 628 21.3% 301 -52.1% 309 2.6% 323 4.5% 336 4.3% 337 0.2% 344 1.9%
Romania 11 11 0.0% 12 9.1% 14 16.7% 26 87.1% 33 25.6% 44 34.0% 59 33.6% 63 7.0% 73 15.1% 78 8.0%
Russia 100 160 60.0% 260 62.5% 350 34.6% 470 34.3% - -100.0% - - - - -
Serbia - - - 11 22 95.7% 32 46.8% 42 29.9% 60 43.3% 75 25.9% 84 11.4% 94 12.2%
Slovakia 43 55 27.4% 58 5.4% 71 23.2% 86 20.4% 95 11.4% 107 11.9% 132 23.8% 157 18.9% 186 18.4% 214 15.2%
Slovenia 48 49 2.5% 46 -5.7% 56 21.6% 67 19.1% 48 -27.7% 54 10.7% 59 9.4% 62 4.9% 64 4.4% 66 2.1%
Turkey 68 25 -63.0% 31 24.7% 33 6.8% 47 41.1% 63 34.6% 74 17.3% 94 27.2% 86 -9.2% 92 6.9% 92 0.1%
Ukraine - - 14 29 110.8% 50 76.5% 76 51.0% 102 34.2% 164 60.8% 190 15.9% 238 25.3% 273 14.7%
Central & Eastern Europe 1,773 1,987 12.1% 2,256 13.5% 2,619 16.1% 3,171 21.1% 2,640 -16.7% 2,957 12.0% 3,320 12.3% 3,556 7.1% 3,763 5.8% 3,937 4.6%
Australia 701 647 -7.8% 662 2.3% 690 4.2% 751 8.9% 820 9.3% 834 1.6% 867 4.0% 884 1.9% 889 0.6% 914 2.7%
China 149 156 4.6% 200 28.2% 320 60.4% 267 -16.6% 327 22.3% 317 -3.1% 348 9.8% 383 10.0% 413 8.0% 455 10.0%
Hong Kong 180 198 9.7% 219 10.5% 212 -2.9% 305 43.9% 349 14.3% 363 3.8% 414 14.3% 451 8.8% 423 -6.0% 436 3.0%
India - 183 173 -5.5% 167 -3.3% 127 -24.2% 146 15.0% 230 57.5% 318 38.4% 414 30.2% 546 31.7% 702 28.7%
Indonesia 32 44 39.8% 55 24.7% 69 24.7% 84 21.9% 93 10.4% 95 2.9% 105 9.8% 110 5.0% 116 5.0% 121 5.0%
Japan 3,710 3,550 -4.3% 3,440 -3.1% 3,427 -0.4% 3,372 -1.6% 4,112 22.0% 4,057 -1.3% 3,862 -4.8% 3,766 -2.5% 3,704 -1.6% 3,650 -1.4%
Malaysia 38 53 39.7% 46 -13.7% 46 0.6% 49 6.3% 47 -5.3% 45 -2.5% 48 6.4% 49 2.0% 51 4.0% 54 5.0%
New Zealand 116 122 5.7% 128 4.2% 143 12.1% 164 14.9% 192 16.6% 185 -3.5% 189 2.4% 163 -14.0% 161 -0.9% 168 4.1%
Pakistan 10 4 -65.6% 4 21.7% 6 36.4% 8 30.0% 10 34.6% 15 45.7% 23 54.4% 27 16.0% 30 10.0% 32 7.5%
Philippines - 55 42 -24.5% 42 0.8% 63 48.9% 75 19.3% 36 -52.4% 41 14.9% 46 11.6% 40 -12.2% 39 -1.9%
Singapore 45 48 5.0% 43 -9.3% 60 38.5% 62 4.0% 64 2.6% 80 26.0% 82 1.7% 83 1.6% 85 2.4% 88 3.9%
South Korea 298 314 5.4% 351 11.8% 321 -8.7% 294 -8.5% 359 22.4% 388 8.1% 431 11.0% 426 -1.3% 438 3.0% 452 3.0%
Taiwan 222 218 -1.8% 253 16.1% 290 15.0% 197 -32.3% 201 2.3% 196 -2.8% 197 0.7% 184 -6.5% 168 -9.0% 163 -3.0%
Thailand 78 90 14.9% 105 17.0% 132 25.3% 177 34.3% 196 10.7% 195 -0.4% 193 -1.5% 197 2.0% 202 3.0% 208 3.0%
Vietnam - - - - 27 29 8.9% 31 8.8% 34 8.9% 37 8.8% 40 8.5% 44 10.0%
Asia Pacific 5,581 5,682 1.8% 5,721 0.7% 5,926 3.6% 5,947 0.3% 7,020 18.1% 7,068 0.7% 7,154 1.2% 7,219 0.9% 7,307 1.2% 7,527 3.0%
Argentina 331 271 -18.1% 25 -90.7% 44 75.5% 62 40.3% 82 32.4% 82 0.3% 99 20.7% 112 12.8% 124 11.1% 138 10.9%
Brazil 566 415 -26.6% 314 -24.3% 348 10.8% 400 14.9% 592 48.0% 693 17.0% 853 23.1% 1,032 21.0% 1,208 17.0% 1,389 15.0%
Chile 30 26 -12.5% 26 -1.3% 25 -2.9% 24 -4.2% 25 3.7% 26 4.4% 30 12.5% 30 2.1% 31 3.4% 34 8.0%
Colombia 63 66 4.8% 63 -4.5% 65 3.2% 76 16.9% 112 47.4% 127 13.4% 138 8.7% 150 8.7% 153 2.0% 162 5.9%
Costa Rica - - - - - - - - - - -
Ecuador 6 8 33.3% 11 37.5% 14 27.3% 18 28.6% 20 9.0% 20 1.1% 22 10.9% 23 4.5% 23 0.0% 25 8.7%
Mexico 392 409 4.4% 329 -19.5% 346 5.0% 339 -1.9% 370 9.2% 424 14.4% 476 12.3% 424 -11.0% 462 9.1% 506 9.5%
Panama - - - 9 9 0.0% 13 44.4% 15 15.4% 17 13.3% 17 0.0% 20 17.6% 15 -25.0%
Peru 5 5 0.0% 5 0.0% 5 8.0% 6 11.1% 6 0.0% 8 33.3% 10 25.0% 10 0.0% 11 10.0% 11 0.0%
Puerto Rico 46 48 4.3% 51 6.3% 56 9.8% 60 7.1% 51 -15.0% 58 13.7% 65 12.1% 65 0.0% 68 4.6% 70 2.9%
Uruguay - - - - 1 1 0.0% 1 20.0% 1 8.3% 1 7.7% 1 1.4% 1 7.5%
Venezuela 8 11 27.4% 8 -26.3% 5 -40.8% 6 25.7% 6 4.9% 8 24.9% 11 47.0% 12 4.0% 14 15.0% 15 10.0%
Latin America 1,448 1,260 -13.0% 833 -33.9% 917 10.1% 1,001 9.1% 1,278 27.7% 1,462 14.4% 1,722 17.8% 1,876 8.9% 2,115 12.7% 2,365 11.9%
Total 53,595 50,722 -5.4% 48,873 -3.6% 49,895 2.1% 51,945 4.1% 54,169 4.3% 56,040 3.5% 57,920 3.4% 58,433 0.9% 59,407 1.7% 61,279 3.2%
52
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
53
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
54
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
Table 40. Magazine Advertising Pages and Rate Card Revenue, 1991-2007
Rate Card
Year Pages % change Revenue ($MM) % change
1997 231,371 $12,755
1998 242,383 4.8% 13,813 8.3%
1999 255,383 5.4 15,508 12.3
2000 286,932 12.4 17,665 13.9
2001 237,613 -17.2 16,214 -8.2
2002 225,620 -5.0 16,700 3.0
2003 225,831 0.1 19,216 15.1
2004 234,428 3.8 21,313 10.9
2005 243,305 3.8 23,068 8.2
2006 244,906 0.7 23,997 4.0
2007 244,737 -0.1 25,502 6.3
Note: Sunday supplements excluded.
Source: MPA.
50.7%
50.3%
49.4%
Advertising Pages as % of Total
47.9% 48.1%
48.3% 46.6% 47.2% 47.0% 47.1%
45.1%
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Source: MPA.
Source: MPA.
55
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
56
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
57
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
Austria - - - 14 30 111.9% 38 27.3% 51 32.1% 89 75.7% 118 32.3% 153 30.2% 197 28.6%
Belgium 18 15 -15.4% 15 0.0% 25 63.6% 44 78.0% 75 71.7% 126 67.3% 175 39.1% 212 21.1% 255 20.0% 292 14.5%
Denmark 58 57 -1.9% 77 34.8% 89 16.3% 107 19.8% 136 27.5% 330 141.8% 445 35.0% 512 15.0% 563 10.0% 619 10.0%
Finland 16 21 27.1% 21 0.0% 23 13.3% 31 35.3% 49 56.5% 65 31.9% 84 29.3% 108 28.7% 125 15.2% 137 9.9%
France 197 157 -20.1% 136 -13.9% 687 406.9% 677 -1.4% 1,002 48.0% 1,261 25.9% 1,546 22.6% 1,800 16.5% 2,042 13.5% 2,248 10.1%
Germany 209 253 20.9% 311 22.7% 337 8.4% 371 10.2% 1,139 207.0% 2,053 80.3% 2,866 39.6% 3,522 22.9% 4,149 17.8% 4,769 14.9%
Ireland 2 4 100.0% 5 33.3% 8 50.0% 12 50.0% 5 -55.6% 18 225.0% 30 69.2% 31 4.5% 33 4.3% 34 4.2%
Italy 190 146 -22.9% 136 -6.9% 143 5.3% 146 1.7% 189 29.6% 272 44.2% 389 42.7% 486 25.0% 627 29.0% 834 33.0%
Netherlands 52 28 -46.1% 44 55.1% 54 24.8% 91 66.8% 133 46.5% 188 41.2% 210 12.2% 236 12.0% 257 9.0% 277 8.0%
Norway 51 40 -21.7% 43 6.4% 55 30.0% 78 40.0% 358 361.5% 532 48.5% 699 31.4% 1,016 45.3% 1,346 32.5% 1,809 34.4%
Portugal 7 7 7.1% 6 -13.4% 6 -10.0% 6 5.0% 7 10.2% 10 42.9% 18 85.0% 28 60.6% 39 38.5% 51 28.5%
Spain 73 71 -3.4% 98 38.8% 102 4.2% 129 26.5% 221 71.3% 425 92.0% 659 55.3% 791 20.0% 989 25.0% 1,256 27.0%
Sweden 153 132 -13.7% 158 19.1% 169 6.8% 196 16.3% 292 49.0% 444 52.0% 598 34.6% 788 31.9% 898 13.9% 1,021 13.7%
Switzerland 21 16 -24.0% 17 5.3% 25 50.0% 24 -3.3% 30 24.1% 43 44.4% 43 0.0% 50 15.4% 55 10.0% 58 4.5%
UK 221 240 8.2% 284 18.7% 590 107.3% 1,402 137.7% 2,325 65.8% 3,430 47.5% 4,787 39.5% 5,936 24.0% 7,293 22.9% 9,211 26.3%
Western Europe 1,269 1,188 -6.4% 1,350 13.6% 2,327 72.5% 3,344 43.7% 6,000 79.4% 9,246 54.1% 12,638 36.7% 15,634 23.7% 18,824 20.4% 22,812 21.2%
Australia 70 51 -26.5% 140 173.8% 198 41.3% 326 64.4% 520 59.8% 840 61.5% 1,129 34.5% 1,438 27.3% 1,713 19.1% 1,914 11.7%
China 21 58 175.0% 80 38.6% 172 114.8% 308 78.6% 535 73.9% 927 73.2% 1,606 73.3% 2,490 55.0% 3,361 35.0% 4,370 30.0%
Hong Kong - - - - - - - 103 116 13.0% 128 9.9% 140 10.0%
India 6 8 39.4% 8 0.3% 8 0.0% 10 19.7% 26 154.8% 51 96.3% 77 52.4% 111 43.8% 200 80.0% 340 70.0%
Indonesia - - - - - 0 0 25.2% 1 56.3% 1 0.0% 1 30.0% 1 30.0%
Japan 501 624 24.6% 718 15.0% 1,005 40.0% 1,541 53.3% 3,208 108.2% 4,099 27.8% 5,098 24.4% 6,166 21.0% 7,169 16.3% 8,123 13.3%
Malaysia - - - - - 6 12 100.0% 15 25.0% 19 30.0% 26 35.4% 33 28.4%
New Zealand - - - 6 11 87.5% 32 193.3% 48 47.7% 99 107.7% 96 -3.7% 101 5.4% 111 10.2%
Pakistan - - - - - 0 1 109.5% 1 95.5% 2 57.0% 2 11.9% 3 20.5%
Philippines - - - - - - - - - - -
Singapore - - - - - - - 21 30 40.6% 46 55.6% 66 42.9%
South Korea 146 138 -5.9% 241 75.2% 383 58.7% 520 35.8% 713 37.1% 959 34.4% 1,365 42.4% 1,531 12.2% 1,838 20.0% 2,244 22.1%
Taiwan 27 26 -2.3% 29 12.0% 34 15.0% 60 79.0% 94 55.5% 110 17.5% 147 33.9% 162 10.0% 175 8.0% 189 8.0%
Thailand 7 4 -33.3% 5 6.7% 5 9.4% 10 96.6% 4 -56.4% 5 13.3% 5 10.0% 8 40.1% 9 19.8% 11 20.1%
Vietnam - - - 0 0 0.0% 0 33.3% 1 25.0% 1 0.0% 1 20.0% 1 16.7% 1 71.4%
Asia Pacific 777 910 17.0% 1,222 34.3% 1,811 48.3% 2,785 53.8% 5,139 84.5% 7,051 37.2% 9,669 37.1% 12,171 25.9% 14,771 21.4% 17,547 18.8%
Argentina - - 4 6 63.2% 8 40.1% 11 34.2% 30 170.4% 42 42.0% 60 41.2% 83 38.4% 114 37.9%
Brazil - - - 55 77 39.7% 112 45.4% 167 49.5% 278 66.6% 400 44.0% 540 35.0% 676 25.0%
Chile - - - 6 6 9.7% 9 34.7% 12 34.0% 15 31.3% 19 26.2% 24 23.9% 29 22.7%
Colombia - - - - - 40 45 12.5% 49 8.9% 58 18.4% 62 6.9% 67 8.1%
Costa Rica - - - - - - - - - - -
Ecuador - - - - - 0 0 25.0% 0 60.0% 1 212.5% 1 60.0% 1 25.0%
Mexico - - - - - - - - - - -
Panama - - - - - - - - - - -
Peru - - - - - - - 7 9 28.6% 11 22.2% 14 27.3%
Puerto Rico 1 1 16.7% 1 28.6% 1 33.3% 1 16.7% 1 0.0% 2 7.1% 2 20.0% 3 66.7% 4 33.3% 5 25.0%
Uruguay 2 1 -56.5% 1 -50.0% 1 60.0% 1 0.0% 1 0.0% 1 12.5% 1 11.1% 1 20.0% 1 -9.2% 1 10.0%
Venezuela - - - - - - - 0 0 42.9% 1 60.0% 1 60.0%
Latin America 3 2 -41.4% 5 193.6% 69 1276.5% 94 36.3% 174 85.4% 256 47.3% 395 54.4% 551 39.7% 726 31.8% 908 25.0%
Armenia - - - - - - 0.001 0.005 400.0% 0.005 0.0% 0.010 100.0% 0.010 0.0%
Azerbaijan - - - - - - - - - - -
Bahrain - - - - - - - - - - -
Egypt - - - - - 2 3 4 7 11 16
Israel 3 7 137.1% 9 31.0% 13 42.1% 33 150.0% 58 77.0% 76 30.1% 96 27.3% 114 18.2% 127 11.5% 140 10.3%
Kazakhstan - - - - - - - - - - -
Kuwait - - - - - - - - - - -
Oman - - - - - - - - - - -
Pan Arab - - - - - - - - - - -
Qatar - - - - - - - - - - -
Saudi Arabia - - - - - - - - - - -
South Africa - 8 7 -13.2% 7 8.7% 16 126.0% 20 23.9% 25 24.3% 39 56.3% 64 65.0% 99 55.0% 153 55.0%
UAE - - - - - - - - - - -
Uzbekistan - - - - - - - - - - -
Total 8,171 8,832 8.1% 10,046 13.7% 12,267 22.1% 15,433 25.8% 22,142 43.5% 30,404 37.3% 41,038 35.0% 51,054 24.4% 62,366 22.2% 76,628 22.9%
Source: ZenithOptimedia, October 2008.
58
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
$7,000
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
97
97
98
98
99
99
00
00
01
01
02
02
03
03
04
04
05
05
06
06
07
07
08
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
3Q
1Q
59
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
60
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
61
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
62
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
2000 2002
Interstitial Referrals
Referrals Interstitial
Email 4% 1%
4% 5%
3%
Email
Slotting Fees Slotting Fees Display Ads
4%
3% 8% 29%
Rich Media
2% Rich Media
5%
Display Ads
48%
Sponsorship
28% Sponsorship
18%
Keyword Search
15%
2004 2007
Email Lead Generation Lead Generation
Digital Video, 2%
1% 7%
2% Email
Slotting Fees 2% Display Ads
2% 21%
Display Ads
Rich Media 19% Rich Media
8%
10%
Sponsorship Sponsorship
8% 3%
Classifieds
Classifieds 16%
Keyword Search
18%
40% Keyword Search
41%
63
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
Table 50. U.S. Online Ad Revenues for Top 4 Portals as a Percentage of Total Internet
Ad Spending, 2004-2008E
(% market share)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E
Google 13.1% 19.2% 24.3% 28.3% 30.7%
Yahoo 18.4% 19.4% 17.8% 15.8% 14.6%
MSN 9.6% 8.2% 6.8% 6.6% 6.4%
AOL 6.8% 7.2% 7.1% 6.3% 4.7%
Total Top 4 48.0% 54.1% 55.8% 57.0% 56.4%
Note: Data through 2007 based on reported revenues and eMarketer estimates; 2008 projections based
on reported revenues through 2Q08 and eMarkter estimates; revenues are net of traffic acquisition costs.
Source: eMarketer.
64
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
Source: Forrester Research, April 2008; JupiterResearch, May 2008; eMarketer, May 2008; J.P.Morgan.
65
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
66
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
67
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
68
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
69
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
Austria 153 171 11.8% 186 8.9% 188 1.2% 190 1.0% 215 12.9% 233 8.3% 234 0.6% 259 10.5% 260 0.5% 264 1.6%
Belgium 221 237 7.1% 250 5.4% 271 8.6% 280 3.3% 294 4.9% 310 5.6% 327 5.4% 338 3.3% 357 5.8% 378 5.8%
Denmark 62 63 1.5% 62 -2.0% 63 2.7% 66 4.1% 68 3.1% 74 9.5% 80 8.0% 84 5.0% 87 3.0% 90 3.0%
Finland 48 47 -2.9% 44 -5.9% 42 -3.1% 45 6.5% 51 12.1% 50 -0.8% 57 13.6% 60 5.5% 63 4.5% 66 4.3%
France 1,606 1,545 -3.8% 1,485 -3.9% 1,445 -2.7% 1,482 2.6% 1,482 0.0% 1,485 0.2% 1,508 1.6% 1,531 1.5% 1,567 2.4% 1,588 1.3%
Germany 1,021 1,040 1.9% 976 -6.2% 972 -0.4% 985 1.4% 1,053 6.8% 1,077 2.3% 1,122 4.2% 1,065 -5.1% 1,035 -2.8% 1,069 3.3%
Ireland 95 118 23.6% 134 14.0% 138 3.1% 145 5.0% 160 10.4% 183 14.5% 250 36.6% 260 3.8% 260 0.0% 263 1.1%
Italy 435 449 3.1% 402 -10.4% 419 4.1% 427 2.0% 431 1.0% 427 -0.9% 436 1.9% 444 2.0% 448 0.8% 453 1.2%
Netherlands 190 188 -1.4% 188 0.0% 167 -10.9% 190 13.9% 207 8.6% 224 8.6% 225 0.4% 230 2.0% 237 3.0% 249 5.0%
Norway 45 42 -5.2% 64 50.6% 98 53.3% 112 14.4% 129 15.3% 153 17.8% 167 9.5% 175 5.0% 182 4.0% 190 4.0%
Portugal 135 141 4.0% 141 -0.1% 143 2.0% 161 12.0% 156 -3.0% 156 0.4% 164 5.0% 172 4.5% 175 2.1% 182 3.9%
Spain 421 556 32.1% 559 0.5% 578 3.4% 605 4.7% 676 11.7% 724 7.1% 777 7.4% 777 0.0% 785 1.0% 800 2.0%
Sweden 125 110 -12.5% 118 7.4% 122 3.6% 137 12.0% 148 8.1% 158 6.9% 153 -3.0% 156 1.7% 154 -1.2% 159 2.8%
Switzerland 493 503 1.9% 476 -5.3% 472 -0.9% 327 -30.7% 335 2.6% 353 5.2% 364 3.3% 372 2.1% 383 2.9% 390 2.0%
UK 1,186 1,152 -2.9% 1,193 3.6% 1,338 12.1% 1,443 7.9% 1,526 5.7% 1,586 3.9% 1,658 4.5% 1,560 -5.9% 1,560 0.0% 1,638 5.0%
Western Europe 6,237 6,360 2.0% 6,276 -1.3% 6,457 2.9% 6,596 2.2% 6,929 5.1% 7,194 3.8% 7,524 4.6% 7,482 -0.6% 7,552 0.9% 7,777 3.0%
Australia 232 227 -1.8% 219 -3.7% 249 13.8% 274 10.1% 297 8.3% 318 7.1% 366 15.0% 387 5.7% 398 3.0% 410 2.9%
China 690 738 7.0% 669 -9.4% 1,128 68.8% 1,626 44.1% 1,655 1.8% 1,890 14.2% 2,574 36.2% 3,166 23.0% 3,673 16.0% 4,408 20.0%
Hong Kong 89 99 11.4% 108 9.4% 92 -14.9% 172 86.4% 164 -4.6% 217 32.4% 262 20.6% 272 3.7% 274 0.8% 287 5.0%
India 145 150 3.3% 151 0.4% 152 1.2% 214 40.5% 230 7.3% 254 10.5% 330 29.9% 336 1.9% 373 11.0% 412 10.5%
Indonesia 29 22 -24.9% 25 14.9% 68 169.4% 79 16.0% 97 21.9% 126 30.1% 157 25.0% 189 20.0% 207 10.0% 228 10.0%
Japan 4,722 4,647 -1.6% 4,446 -4.3% 4,235 -4.7% 4,290 1.3% 5,324 24.1% 5,507 3.4% 5,632 2.3% 5,741 1.9% 5,914 3.0% 6,067 2.6%
Malaysia 18 20 12.9% 15 -28.6% 17 16.0% 29 69.0% 33 15.3% 44 33.6% 48 9.3% 49 3.0% 53 8.0% 59 10.0%
New Zealand 21 24 14.3% 27 15.6% 35 27.0% 38 8.5% 53 41.2% 58 9.7% 57 -1.3% 55 -3.8% 56 1.3% 58 3.9%
Pakistan 7 13 100.0% 18 37.5% 18 0.0% 18 0.0% 26 45.5% 36 37.5% 46 27.3% 49 7.0% 52 5.0% 53 1.7%
Philippines - - - - - - - - - - -
Singapore 52 63 22.3% 60 -5.9% 62 4.4% 73 16.5% 78 7.8% 88 11.9% 118 34.8% 121 2.2% 123 2.2% 155 25.3%
South Korea 750 805 7.4% 899 11.6% 738 -17.9% 700 -5.2% 738 5.4% 755 2.3% 604 -20.0% 785 30.0% 770 -2.0% 846 10.0%
Taiwan - - - - 142 87 -38.5% 113 29.3% 103 -8.5% 104 1.0% 96 -8.0% 101 5.0%
Thailand 47 58 24.2% 68 17.6% 107 57.3% 117 9.5% 155 32.0% 173 11.7% 174 0.6% 183 5.0% 192 5.0% 202 5.0%
Vietnam 20 22 10.0% 22 0.0% 16 -27.3% 18 12.5% 20 12.4% 23 15.1% 24 2.6% 25 2.5% 28 14.5% 30 7.4%
Asia Pacific 6,820 6,889 1.0% 6,726 -2.4% 6,919 2.9% 7,789 12.6% 8,957 15.0% 9,602 7.2% 10,496 9.3% 11,462 9.2% 12,210 6.5% 13,316 9.1%
Argentina 228 168 -26.3% 33 -80.4% 44 33.8% 64 45.8% 80 24.2% 114 42.6% 174 52.8% 196 12.3% 218 11.3% 238 9.1%
Brazil 278 185 -33.3% 168 -9.2% 210 24.8% 232 10.5% 284 22.4% 295 4.0% 280 -5.2% 286 2.0% 291 2.0% 297 2.0%
Chile 40 39 -2.1% 40 2.0% 43 8.0% 54 23.3% 66 23.8% 75 13.3% 90 19.8% 99 9.8% 108 9.2% 118 9.1%
Colombia - - - - - 279 284 1.8% 328 15.5% 380 15.9% 373 -1.8% 382 2.4%
Costa Rica 8 9 11.6% 12 37.5% 12 2.7% 13 3.4% 15 16.6% 18 22.3% 24 30.2% 28 19.0% 33 16.0% 38 13.7%
Ecuador - - - - - 6 8 26.2% 11 42.9% 14 27.3% 16 14.3% 17 6.3%
Mexico - - - - - - - - - - -
Panama - - - - - - - - - - -
Peru 20 23 15.0% 22 -4.3% 23 2.9% 26 14.8% 30 15.4% 35 16.7% 42 20.0% 48 14.3% 54 12.5% 58 7.4%
Puerto Rico 9 35 288.9% 38 7.1% 40 6.7% 32 -20.0% 38 18.8% 45 18.4% 46 2.2% 55 19.6% 60 9.1% 65 8.3%
Uruguay 16 19 15.6% 10 -45.9% 8 -20.0% 10 18.8% 9 -5.3% 10 5.6% 10 5.3% 11 10.0% 11 -0.9% 12 5.5%
Venezuela 39 44 12.9% 32 -26.7% 24 -24.8% 38 54.3% 46 21.8% 55 19.2% 67 22.4% 75 12.5% 84 11.1% 101 20.0%
Latin America 638 522 -18.2% 356 -31.9% 405 13.9% 468 15.6% 853 82.3% 939 10.0% 1,072 14.2% 1,192 11.2% 1,248 4.7% 1,324 6.1%
Total 20,056 20,214 0.8% 20,225 0.1% 21,001 3.8% 22,586 7.5% 25,503 12.9% 28,048 10.0% 31,053 10.7% 33,136 6.7% 35,122 6.0% 37,759 7.5%
Source: ZenithOptimedia, October 2008.
70
Alexia S. Quadrani North America Equity Research
(1-212) 622-1896 23 October 2008
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Tim Nollen
(44-20) 7325-9482
tim.nollen@jpmorgan.com
$9.0
$8.0
$7.0
$6.0
$5.0
$4.0
$3.0
$2.0
$1.0
$0.0
2008E
2009E
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: OAAA.
71
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Street Furniture,
7%
Transit, 11%
Billboards, 66%
Source: OAAA.
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Austria 14 -10.6% 12 -10.0% 15 25.2% 14 -11.3% 19 40.0% 21 7.1% 21 0.0% 19 -6.7% 20 3.6% 21 3.4%
Belgium 38 10.5% 31 -17.3% 34 9.0% 34 0.2% 39 15.1% 41 3.0% 36 -12.4% 39 9.8% 40 1.8% 41 1.8%
Denmark 9 8.7% 13 40.0% 10 -21.4% 9 -7.3% 10 11.8% 10 -3.5% 11 8.0% 13 15.0% 13 5.0% 14 5.0%
Finland 3 17.6% 3 0.0% 3 0.0% 3 0.0% 2 -20.0% 2 -12.5% 3 64.3% 5 73.9% 5 0.0% 5 0.0%
France 99 -9.5% 101 2.2% 89 -12.2% 92 3.1% 107 16.4% 112 5.1% 122 8.5% 116 -4.5% 120 3.5% 125 3.4%
Germany 233 -2.9% 220 -5.3% 220 0.0% 201 -8.7% 181 -10.2% 160 -11.4% 145 -9.4% 148 1.9% 151 1.9% 153 1.8%
Ireland 10 14.8% 12 28.6% 12 0.0% 14 11.1% 12 -10.0% 14 11.1% 15 10.0% 15 0.0% 14 -9.1% 14 0.0%
Italy 78 14.0% 83 7.0% 96 14.8% 104 8.6% 96 -8.2% 88 -8.2% 80 -8.4% 72 -10.2% 72 0.4% 73 1.0%
Netherlands 12 -30.8% 10 -22.2% 10 0.0% 8 -14.3% 10 16.7% 7 -28.6% 7 -1.9% 7 -2.0% 6 -3.0% 6 -1.0%
Norway 22 2.2% 20 -5.5% 24 19.2% 25 2.8% 28 10.2% 30 6.8% 37 23.7% 40 10.0% 43 8.0% 47 8.0%
Portugal 9 11.7% 9 -4.6% 9 3.0% 9 0.0% 9 1.5% 8 -10.6% 8 -6.8% 8 0.0% 7 -1.8% 8 2.0%
Spain 61 -19.2% 62 1.6% 65 5.1% 56 -14.4% 59 5.3% 56 -5.3% 53 -5.5% 47 -10.0% 48 0.5% 48 1.0%
Sweden 12 1.3% 12 0.0% 10 -11.4% 9 -15.7% 10 15.3% 11 8.8% 13 23.0% 14 2.7% 15 8.2% 16 6.6%
Switzerland 33 -11.1% 32 -5.0% 32 0.0% 42 31.6% 42 0.0% 42 0.0% 39 -6.0% 43 8.5% 43 2.0% 44 1.9%
UK 276 28.1% 303 9.8% 303 0.0% 323 6.7% 316 -2.2% 310 -1.9% 340 9.7% 356 4.7% 370 3.9% 382 3.2%
Western Europe 908 4.0% 924 1.7% 933 1.0% 942 1.0% 940 -0.3% 910 -3.2% 929 2.1% 942 1.4% 969 2.9% 996 2.8%
Belarus - - - - - - - - - -
Bosnia & Herzegovina - - - - - - - - - -
Bulgaria - - - - - - - - - -
Croatia - - - - - - - - - -
Czech Republic 4 3 -17.1% 5 76.2% 8 50.5% 8 -7.8% 10 29.5% 9 -3.7% 7 -26.0% 7 6.0% 8 7.0%
Estonia - - - - - - - - - -
Georgia - - - - - - - - - -
Greece 18 0.0% 19 7.7% 19 0.0% 19 0.0% 21 7.1% 22 6.7% 23 6.3% 25 5.9% 26 5.6% 27 5.3%
Hungary 6 6.5% 6 -5.0% 7 21.9% 7 -4.7% 7 4.6% 7 -3.3% 5 -25.9% 4 -27.0% 3 -20.0% 3 -8.0%
Latvia 0 0.0% 1 50.0% 1 33.3% 1 0.0% 1 0.0% 1 13.3% 1 28.0% 1 8.6% 1 11.1% 2 28.6%
Lithuania - - - 0 0 -47.5% 0 600.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 14.3%
Moldova - - - - 0.1 0.1 25.0% 0.1 20.0% 0.3 152.7% 0.4 24.9% 0.5 25.1%
Poland 17 78.0% 16 -9.5% 36 126.0% 46 29.5% 19 -58.6% 22 12.9% 26 19.8% 29 9.9% 30 6.8% 34 13.0%
Romania 0 50.0% 1 66.7% 1 40.0% 2 157.1% 2 27.8% 3 26.1% 3 17.2% 4 17.6% 5 17.5% 5 10.0%
Russia 5 66.7% 9 80.0% 12 33.3% 15 25.0% 40 166.7% 66 65.8% 94 41.7% 127 34.6% 158 25.2% 195 23.4%
Serbia - 1 1 25.0% 1 20.0% 1 16.7%
Slovakia 0 211.1% 1 17.9% 0 -6.8% 0 0.0% 1 68.6% 1 6.1% 1 -18.2% 1 36.4% 2 65.8% 2 50.0%
Slovenia - - - - 2 2 0.0% 3 42.9% 3 -5.0% 3 10.5% 3 9.5%
Turkey 5 -61.9% 6 19.4% 12 100.8% 16 34.5% 21 29.2% 23 10.9% 28 19.6% 28 0.8% 28 0.6% 29 5.1%
Ukraine - - - 3 5 66.7% 7 40.0% 9 28.6% 20 122.2% 30 50.0% 40 33.3%
Central & Eastern Europe 56 12.1% 61 7.4% 94 54.4% 118 26.0% 126 7.1% 164 29.7% 204 24.3% 249 22.1% 296 18.9% 352 19.1%
Australia 54 -7.2% 49 -9.4% 55 13.8% 62 12.1% 70 13.5% 72 2.4% 78 8.1% 82 5.4% 84 2.0% 87 4.0%
China 10 36.8% 14 35.0% 16 16.9% 19 15.6% 20 8.0% 22 11.2% 26 15.8% 31 20.0% 36 15.0% 43 20.0%
Hong Kong 3 366.7% 3 8.9% 1 -75.0% 0 -44.3% 0 -41.2% 0 0.0% 1 103.3% 1 0.0% 1 0.0% 1 0.0%
India 7 -11.4% 15 93.5% 16 8.3% 86 444.6% 64 -25.4% 70 9.8% 80 13.5% 107 35.1% 127 18.2% 148 16.7%
Indonesia - - - - 1 1 7.0% 2 28.6% 1 -16.0% 2 5.0% 2 5.0%
Japan - - - - - - - - - -
Malaysia 3 10.0% 3 -9.1% 4 30.0% 4 7.7% 5 28.6% 6 11.1% 8 30.0% 8 2.0% 8 10.0% 9 10.0%
New Zealand 7 -30.8% 6 -11.1% 9 50.0% 10 8.3% 8 -15.4% 7 -9.1% 7 0.0% 7 -10.0% 7 0.0% 7 11.1%
Pakistan - - - 0 1 350.0% 1 -22.2% 16 2728.6% 22 35.0% 28 25.0% 31 12.6%
Philippines - - - - - - - - - -
Singapore 15 -0.4% 9 -41.7% 7 -23.1% 8 16.0% 9 12.1% 8 -7.7% 10 25.0% 11 6.7% 11 6.3% 12 5.9%
South Korea 29 5.8% 39 34.9% 45 15.0% 56 23.2% 54 -3.8% 77 44.0% 81 5.0% 84 3.0% 86 3.0% 88 2.0%
Taiwan - - - - - - - - - -
Thailand 11 13.7% 17 61.3% 26 50.3% 39 48.9% 50 29.1% 63 25.5% 127 103.0% 121 -5.0% 111 -8.0% 113 2.0%
Vietnam - - 0 0 0.0% 0 50.0% 0 13.3% 0 0.0% 0 11.8% 0 5.3% 0 19.0%
Asia Pacific 139 0.0% 154 11.1% 179 15.9% 283 58.3% 283 -0.2% 328 16.2% 436 32.7% 475 8.9% 501 5.4% 542 8.3%
Argentina 44 -8.3% 9 -80.6% 13 49.1% 15 15.3% 20 33.4% 22 10.1% 25 13.6% 26 6.0% 28 8.3% 29 1.4%
Brazil - - - - - - - - - -
Chile 2 -2.0% 2 -10.1% 2 1.9% 2 3.0% 2 5.7% 2 -2.0% 3 5.0% 3 19.0% 3 7.0% 3 8.0%
Colombia - - - - 3 3 5.0% 3 5.0% 3 5.0% 3 -7.6% 3 -6.5%
Costa Rica - - - - - - - - - -
Ecuador - - - - 0 0 53.3% 0 30.4% 1 100.0% 1 33.3% 1 12.5%
Mexico - - - - - - - - - -
Panama - - - - - - - - - -
Peru - - - - 7 9 28.6% 5 -44.4% 6 10.0% 6 9.1% 7 16.7%
Puerto Rico 11 176.8% 11 -2.4% 10 -6.3% 8 -21.0% 9 12.5% 9 -2.2% 8 -9.1% 8 0.0% 9 12.5% 10 11.1%
Uruguay 2 1 -66.7% 1 60.0% 1 0.0% 1 25.0% 1 0.0% 2 50.0% 2 26.7% 2 -14.2% 2 7.0%
Venezuela 34 12.8% 25 -25.2% 14 -45.2% 23 66.7% 27 18.5% 32 16.8% 35 10.0% 40 15.0% 49 20.0% 53 10.0%
Latin America 93 9.9% 47 -49.0% 40 -16.0% 49 23.0% 70 42.2% 78 12.3% 80 2.8% 89 10.7% 101 13.1% 108 7.5%
Armenia - - - - 0.001 0.003 200.0% 0.005 66.7% 0.005 0.0% 0.005 0.0% 0.005 0.0%
Azerbaijan - - - - - - - - - -
Bahrain - - 1 2 18.7% 2 9.6% 2 0.0% 2 -4.6% 2 10.0% 2 -1.2% 2 0.7%
Egypt - - - 2 13 470.4% 14 7.7% 13 -7.1% 17 30.8% 18 5.9% 20 11.1%
Israel 3 6.3% 3 7.7% 3 0.0% 3 -7.1% 6 76.9% 6 0.0% 7 17.4% 7 0.0% 7 0.0% 7 0.0%
Kazakhstan - - - - - - - - - -
Kuwait - - - - - - - - - -
Oman - - - - - - - - - -
Pan Arab - - - - - - - - - -
Qatar - - - - - - - - - -
Saudi Arabia - - - - - - - - - -
South Africa 9 -10.1% 11 24.2% 12 13.0% 28 125.3% 84 201.5% 56 -33.5% 51 -8.7% 54 5.0% 56 5.0% 62 10.0%
UAE - - 7 7 -7.6% 9 30.6% 14 53.0% 16 12.6% 16 4.6% 16 1.3% 17 4.6%
Uzbekistan - - - - - - - - - -
Total 1,208 4.2% 1,476 22.1% 1,573 6.6% 1,773 12.7% 1,931 8.9% 2,031 5.2% 2,265 11.5% 2,458 8.5% 2,664 8.4% 2,910 9.2%
Source: ZenithOptimedia, October 2008.
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Table 66. Super Bowl Advertising Rates and Total Ad Revenues, 1986-2007
Cost per Total
30 second unit ad revenues
(thousands) (millions)
1986 $550 $28.1
1987 600 31.5
1988 645 34.8
1991 800 45.6
1992 850 48.2
1996 1,085 69.4
1997 1,200 72.2
1998 1,292 80.1
2001 2,100 136.4
2002 2,200 134.2
2003 2,150 130.1
2004 2,302 149.6
2005 2,400 158.4
2006 2,500 162.5
2007 2,385 151.5
Source: TNS Media Intelligence.
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Magazines, 3%
Out-of-home, 2%
Internet, 5%
Local newspapers,
5%
National newspapers,
3%
Network/national TV,
46%
Local radio, 13%
National radio, 6%
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Automotive, 14%
Retail, 12%
Financial services, 3%
Movies, recorded video
Medicines & remedies, & music, 9%
4%
General services, 4% Telecommunications &
internet, 8%
Personal care, 5%
Food, beverages &
Restaurants, 5% candy, 7%
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Table 88. Top online member communities for people of Hispanic origin ranked by unique
audience
Unique Users % of Total Site
Site May 2008 (000) Uniques
MySpace.com 7,112 11.7%
Blogger 3,388 8.6
Facebook 1,941 7.5
WordPress.com 1,786 10.4
Windows Live Spaces 1,033 13.5
Six Apart TyrePad 855 7.7
MSN Groups 803 10
Classmates Online 706 4.9
Source: Nielsen NetRatings. Advertising Age. July 2008.
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U.S. Advertisers
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Global Advertisers
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Tim Nollen
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Table 115. Ad Spending by Category for Top 100 Global Advertisers, 2005-06
($ in millions)
Category 2006 2005 % Change % Total Advertiser Count
Automotive $22,195 $22,291 -0.4% 22.7% 16
Personal Care 19,526 18,394 6.2% 20.0% 9
Entertainment & media 9,538 10,038 -5.0% 9.8% 8
Food 7,793 7,638 2.0% 8.0% 7
Drugs 7,707 7,376 4.5% 7.9% 9
Electronics 4,023 3,800 5.9% 4.1% 8
Soft drinks 3,916 3,941 -0.6% 4.0% 3
Retail 3,576 3,355 6.6% 3.7% 7
Cleaners 3,571 3,323 7.5% 3.7% 4
Restaurants 3,553 3,375 5.3% 3.6% 4
Computers 3,247 3,223 0.7% 3.3% 5
Telephone 2,488 2,956 -15.8% 2.5% 4
Financial 2,433 2,622 -7.2% 2.5% 5
Beer, wine & liquor 2,050 2,261 -9.4% 2.1% 6
Candy 1,137 1,104 3.0% 1.2% 2
Toys 699 704 -0.6% 0.7% 2
Source: Advertising Age. November 2007.
Note: All figures are considered AA estimates.
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Omnicom Group
$12.69 Billion 1 WPP Group
$12.38 Billion 2 Interpublic Group of Co.s
$6.55 Billion 3 Publicis Groupe
$6.38 Billion 4
Global Networks Global Networks
Global Networks
Global Networks
Cline Davis & Mann WPP investments Reprise Media Media & Regies Europe
$127 million $12 million $95 million
Asatsu-DK ID Media
Alcone Marketing Group Healthcare Agencies
$454 million
$126 million
STW Group
Goodby, Silverstein & Partners $235 million Medicus N.Y.
Public Relations
$84 million $74 MILLION
Chime Communications
GMR Marketing $193 million Publicis Selling Solutions Group
DeVries Public Relations $78 MILLION
$100 million
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Finc Svcs, 8%
Auto/Transportation,
Health/personal
14%
Telecom, 9%
care, 19%
Pharma, 14%
CPG, 9% Food/Beverage,
14%
Publicis Havas
Luxury, 1%
Energy, 1% Other, 3% Other, 16%
Media, 2%
Leisure, 3%
Retail, 4% Retail, 30%
Transportation, 2%
Tech, 6%
FMCG, 37% Industry, 2%
Services, 4%
Telecom, 7%
Finance, 11%
Financial, 9%
Health, 13%
Auto, 11%
Healthcare, 12% TMT, 12%
Auto, 15%
Note: Category definitions are not standard across companies. OMC and IPG figures are approximations. WPP breakdown unavailable.
1. Skewed toward top clients, Auto represents 10-11% of total revenues, per OMC.
Source: Companies; J.P.Morgan.
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Table 129. Top 25 U.S. Agency Brands by Core Advertising Revenue, 2006-2007
($ in millions)
RANK U.S. REVENUE REVENUE OUTSIDE THE U.S. WORLDWIDE REVENUE
2007 2006 AGENCY 2007 2006 % CHG 2007 2006 % CHG 2007 2006 % CHG
1 1 BBDO Worldwide* [Omnicom] $628.0 $584.7 7.4 $1,271 $1,095.7 16 $1,899.0 $1,680.0 13
2 2 DraftFCB* [Interpublic] 518.9 496.1 4.6 472 445.1 6 991 941 5.3
3 3 McCann Erickson Worldwide* [Interpublic] 490 443.4 10.5 1129 1,035.8 9 1,619 1,479 9.5
4 17 Epsilon/Purple@Epsilon* [ADS (Epsilon)] 360 232 55.2 10 NA NA 370 232 59.4
5 4 Rapp Collins Worldwide* [Omnicom] 351.9 306 15 250 211 18.5 602 517 16.4
6 13 Digitas* [Publicis] 345 257 34.2 19 NA NA 364 257 41.6
7 6 OgilvyOne Worldwide* [WPP] 338.5 297.8 13.7 351 305.9 14.8 690 604 14.3
8 5 JWT* [WPP] 315.5 303.3 4 922 836.5 10.2 1,237 1,140 8.5
9 9 Y&R* [WPP] 307 280 9.6 600 540 11.1 907 820 10.6
10 11 MindShare Worldwide[WPP] 302.4 277.8 8.9 432 409.6 5.4 734 687 6.8
11 16 Avenue A/Razorfish [Microsoft Corp.] 299.3 235.4 27.1 69 32.2 114.9 368 268 37.7
12 8 Carlson Marketing* 299 282 6 114 108 5.6 413 390 5.9
13 7 OMD Worldwide* [Omnicom] 298.8 290.1 3 560 499.9 12 859 790 8.7
14 12 Wunderman* [WPP] 295 264 11.7 425 351 21.1 720 615 17.1
15 10 DDB Worldwide* [Omnicom] 290.8 277.9 4.6 1141 986 15.8 1,432 1,264 13.3
16 19 Starcom USA* [Publicis] 259 227.9 13.6 NA NA NA 259 228 13.6
17 14 Ogilvy & Mather Worldwide* [WPP] 255 250 2 557 520 7.2 812 770 5.5
18 15 Grey* [WPP] 249.8 235.7 6 395 369.3 7 645 605 6.6
19 22 Mediaedge.cia* [WPP] 242.9 196.7 23.5 398 342.2 16.4 641 539 19
20 18 Campbell-Ewald* [Interpublic] 239.2 230 4 NA NA NA 239 230 4
21 23 Zenith Media USA* [Publicis] 215 188.5 14.1 NA NA NA 215 189 14.1
22 21 TBWA Worldwide* [Omnicom] 208.2 199 4.6 1084 936 15.8 1,292 1,135 13.8
23 27 MediaVest USA* [Publicis] 200 167.1 19.7 NA NA NA 200 167 19.7
24 26 Saatchi & Saatchi* [Publicis] 193.1 171.7 12.5 410 370 10.8 603 542 11.3
25 20 Leo Burnett Worldwide* [Publicis] 190.7 204.8 -6.9 526 546 -3.6 717 751 -4.5
*Revenue is Ad Age estimate
Source: Advertising Age, May , 2008.
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Table 130. Top 15 Consolidated Agency Networks, Ranked by 2007 Worldwide Network Revenue
($ in millions)
Rank Worldwide Revenue
2007 2006 Network and Agencies 2007 2006 % Chg
1 3 DDB Worldwide Communication Group[omnicom] $2,621.0 $2,280.0 15.0
DDB Worldwide 1,432.0 1,264.0 13.3
Rapp Collins Worldwide 602.0 517.0 16.4
Interbrand 240.0 222.0 8.0
Tribal DDB 200.0 142.0 40.8
TracyLocke Dallas 121.0 110.0 10.0
2 2 McCann Worldgroup [Interpublic] $2,533.0 $2,327.0 8.9
McCann Erickson World Wide 1,619.0 1,479.0 9.5
MRM Worldwide 261.0 244.0 7.0
McCann Healthcare Worldwide 207.0 197.0 5.2
Momentum Worldwide 175.0 159.0 10.1
3 1 Dentsu[Dentsu] $2,472.0 $2,487.0 -0.6
Dentsu 2,171.0 2,185.0 -0.6
4 4 BBDO Worldwide[Omnicom] $2,389.0 $2,077.0 15.0
BBDO Worldwide 1,899.0 1,680.0 13.0
Proximity Worldwide 327.0 283.0 15.6
Organic 125.0 86.0 45.0
5 5 Young & Rubicam Brands[WPP] $2,150.0 $1,910.0 12.4
Y&R 907.0 820.0 10.6
Wunderman 720.0 615.0 17.1
Landor Associates 170.0 157.0
Sudler & Hennessey 165.0 160.0 3.0
6 6 Ogilvy Group [WPP] $1,836.0 $1,648.0 11.4
Ogilvy & Mather Worldwide 812.0 770.0 5.5
OgilvyOne Worldwide 690.0 604.0 14.3
OgilvyInteractive 345.0 295.0 17.0
OgilvyAction 251.0 236.0 6.6
Ogilvy Healthworld 160.0 139.0 15.1
7 7 TBWA Worldwide [Omnicom] $1,779.0 $1,587.0 12.1
TBWA Worldwide 1,292.0 1,135.0 13.8
Zimmerman Advertising 175.0 154.0 14.0
Integer Group 132.0 132.0 0.0
Agency.com 102.0 97.0 5.5
TBWA/WorldHealth 101.0 90.0 12.0
8 8 JWT [WPP] $1,489.0 $1,385.0 7.5
JWT 1,237.0 1,140.0 8.5
RMG Connect 151.0 151.0 0.0
9 9 Euro RSCG Worldwide[Havas] $1,310.0 $1,183.0 10.8
Euro RSCG Worldwide 748.0 646.0 15.8
Euro RSCG 4D 383.0 386.0 -0.7
Euro RSCG Life 160.0 137.0 17.0
10 11 DraftFCB [Interpublic] $1,241.0 $1,158.0 7.2
DraftFCB 991.0 941.0 5.3
R/GA 108.0 82.0 31.7
DraftFCB Healthcare 105.0 99.0 5.7
11 10 Publicis Worldwide [Publicis] $1,200.0 $1,164.0 3.1
Publicis (incl. Publicis 1,023.0 996.0 2.7
Publicis Modem & Dialog 177.0 168.0 5.9
12 12 Grey Group [WPP] $1,177.0 $1,110.0 6.1
Grey New York 645.0 605.0 6.6
G2 New York 402.0 372.0 8.1
GHG (Grey Healthcare 121.0 123.0 -2.2
13 13 Leo Burnett Worldwide[Publicis] $1,070.0 $1,062.0 0.8
Leo Burnett Worldwide 717.0 751.0 -4.5
Arc Worldwide Chicago 282.0 249.0 13.3
14 14 Hakuhodo [Hakuhodo] $943.0 $885.0 6.6
15 15 Saatchi & Saatchi[Publicis] $740.0 $660.0 12.1
Saatchi & Saatchi 603.0 542.0 11.3
Source: Advertising Age.
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Table 136. Top U.S. Sales Promotion Agencies by Integrated Agency, 2007
($ in millions)
Rank U.S. Sales Promo Revenue
2007 2006 Agency (Parent) 2007 2006 %CHG
1 1 Carlson Marketing* $194.4 $182.0 6.8
2 2 George P. Johnson Co. 185.3 159.2 16.4
3 3 BBDO Worldwide (MS)* [Omnicom] 156.0 140.5 11
4 4 Integer Group* [Omnicom] 131.6 131.6 0
5 5 Jack Morton Worldwide* [Interpublic] 128.5 124.8 3
6 6 Mosaic Sales Solutions 121.3 115.9 4.6
7 7 TracyLocke* [Omnicom] 121.0 110.0 10
8 8 Alcone Marketing Group* [Omnicom] 116.4 107.5 8.3
9 9 Momentum Worldwide* [Interpublic] 115.0 107.0 7.5
10 11 Derse 106.2 95.3 11.5
11 10 GMR Marketing* [Omnicom] 100.0 103.0 -2.9
12 12 Marketing Arm* [Omnicom] 68.2 63.0 8.3
13 14 Arc Worldwide* [Publicis] 66.0 54.7 20.7
14 16 OgilvyAction* [WPP] 49.4 47.0 5.1
15 18 ePrize 49.0 35.9 36.5
16 13 Alloy Media & Marketing* 48.7 55.0 -11.4
17 17 G2* [WPP] 47.6 39.9 19.4
18 15 Marketing Store 45.4 50.3 -9.8
19 27 Rivet* [Interpublic] 40.0 20.9 91.4
20 20 Ryan Partnership [D. L. Ryan Cos.] 38.6 33.0 17.1
21 22 Saatchi & Saatchi X* [Publicis] 38.0 29.3 29.7
22 19 Spar Group 29.4 34.1 -13.8
23 24 Marketing Drive* 29.1 28.0 4
24 21 Euro RSCG 4D* [Havas] 27.2 31.3 -13.1
25 30 BFG Communications 25.5 17.3 47.3
26 NA TBA Global* 25.2 NA NA
27 32 Switch 25.0 16.0 56.3
28 25 Cramer 24.2 23.2 4.2
29 NA Brierley & Partners* 24.0 NA NA
30 23 Equity Marketing & Logistics* [Emak Worldwide] 23.7 28.1 -15.5
31 31 Catapult Integrated Services [D. L. Ryan Cos.] 23.3 16.8 38.5
32 28 Velocity Sports & Entertainment [Aegis Group] 21.8 19.0 14.6
33 29 Hawkeye [Hawkeye Group] 19.8 17.5 13.1
34 33 EastWest Marketing Group* 19.0 16.0 18.8
35 NA Arnold Worldwide (MS)* [Havas] 15.0 NA NA
36 35 Campbell-Ewald* [Interpublic] 14.4 13.8 4
37 26 Aspen Marketing Services* 14.2 22.1 -35.7
38 34 Vox Medica 11.9 14.2 -15.6
39 36 Malone Advertising* [WPP] 10.6 9.9 7.3
40 43 Upshot* [Emak Worldwide] 10.0 7.6 31.6
41 47 Cheil USA [Cheil Worldwide] 9.7 6.8 42.4
42 37 Flair Communications Agency* 9.2 9.2 0
43 38 Marden-Kane 8.9 8.8 1.2
44 40 Mastermind Marketing 8.4 8.8 -4
45 45 McClain Finlon Advertising 8.1 7.4 9.6
46 41 Eric Mower & Associates 8.1 8.5 -4
47 42 Dieste Harmel & Partners* [Omnicom] 8.1 7.7 4.9
48 44 Source Marketing* [MDC Partners] 7.9 7.5 5.9
49 46 Power Creative 7.3 6.9 6
50 39 Noble Communications 6.7 8.8 -23.9
50 39 Noble Communications 6.7 8.8 -23.9
Asterisk (*) indicates estimate
Source: Advertising Age. May 2008.
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Figure 20. Ad Holding Companies — Share Prices Performance Since Sep 2000
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