TSLA Update Letter 2017-3Q
TSLA Update Letter 2017-3Q
TSLA Update Letter 2017-3Q
In Q3, we delivered the 250,000th Tesla. This is a significant milestone as the Tesla fleet is now about 100 times larger than it was five
years ago, just before the launch of Model S.
During Q3, we received record net orders for Model S and Model X, setting the stage for what should be an all-time record for deliveries of
these vehicles in Q4. With the addition of Model 3 as a compelling, high-performance and long-range electric vehicle that is also
affordable, the Tesla fleet should grow even faster in the years ahead.
Shifting road transportation from internal combustion engines to electric powertrains is only half the Tesla story. We are also experiencing
growing demand for our Powerwall and Powerpack energy storage products for residential and commercial applications, and we are
increasing production of these products. Energy generation with Solar Roof will become a bigger portion of our business next year as we
ramp production at Gigafactory 2 in Buffalo. Sustainable energy generation and storage is a critical part of Teslas mission and will drive
long-term revenue growth and profits.
Several manufacturing lines, such as drive unit, seat assembly, paint shop and
stamping, have demonstrated a manufacturing ability in excess of 1,000 units
per week during burst builds of short duration. Other lines, such as battery pack Model 3 Body Shop Welding
assembly, body shop welding and final vehicle assembly, have demonstrated (Video Embedded)
burst builds of about 500 units per week and are ramping up quickly. Likewise,
cell production at Gigafactory 1 continues to ramp, and current cell production
makes it one of the largest battery cell manufacturing facilities in the world.
To date, our primary production constraint has been in the battery module assembly line at Gigafactory 1, where cells are packaged
into modules. Four modules are packaged into an aluminum case to form a Model 3 battery pack. The combined complexity of module
design and its automated manufacturing process has taken this line longer to ramp than expected. The biggest challenge is that the first
two zones of a four zone process, key elements of which were done by manufacturing systems suppliers, had to be taken over and
significantly redesigned by Tesla. We have redirected our best engineering talent to fine-tune the automated processes and related
robotic programming, and we are confident that throughput will increase substantially
in upcoming weeks and ultimately be capable of production rates significantly greater
than the original specification.
In Q3, we delivered 25,915 Model S and Model X vehicles and 222 Model 3
vehicles, for a total of 26,137 deliveries. Combined Model S and Model X
deliveries in Q3 grew 18% globally compared to Q2 and 4.5% versus the same
quarter one year ago. Consequently, both Model S and Model X gained further
market share in the US luxury vehicle market. In addition, our used vehicle sales
more than doubled from the prior quarter.
Model S and X combined net orders in Q3 also hit an all-time record in our North
American, European and Asian markets individually, driven primarily by
increased awareness of Tesla from the Model 3 launch and the addition of new
stores internationally.
50-Stall Supercharger Station in Shanghai
We continue to update our Autopilot software and recently made significant
improvements to the Autosteer function. The Tesla AI team, which is
fundamental to achieving full autonomy, strengthened dramatically this year, with a number of the worlds best AI engineers and
researchers joining our company. We plan to continue building Tesla AI until it is one of the best teams in the world, not just in
automotive, where Tesla is already the leader, but across all industries. This applies to both software and hardware.
Now that the foundation of the Tesla vision neural net is right, which was an exceptionally difficult problem, as it must fit into far less
computing power than is typically used, we expect a rapid rollout of additional functionality over the next several months and are
progressing rapidly towards our goal of a coast-to-coast drive with no one touching the controls.
During Q3, we opened 18 new store and service locations for a total of 318 locations globally. The number of service locations increased
by 6% in Q3, while we managed to increase our technician capacity by 10% per service center. Our mobile service fleet has expanded to
160 service units in Q3, and we are expecting this number to almost double by the end of this year. Reaction to both the speed and
convenience of our mobile service has been very positive, with customer satisfaction for this offering at nearly 100% during the quarter.
We added 126 new Supercharger stations in Q3, for a total of more than 1,000 stations and over 7,000 Supercharging connectors
worldwide. Our network of destination chargers is even larger. At the end of the quarter, there were 7,200 destination charger locations
worldwide, which increased the availability of destination charging for our customers by nearly 18% in one quarter. We recently opened a
Supercharger station with 50 connectors in Shanghai, China. Such high-density stations will become more common in other high traffic
areas in the future. We also introduced new Superchargers for parking garages and city centers. Superchargers in city centers are more
compact, easier to install, and have a high charging rate of 72 kW. This is helping us to accelerate and scale Supercharging availability for
our customers, in line with the expected growth of our fleet.
In the aftermath of Hurricane Maria, the island of Puerto Rico was left largely without
electricity. In response, we have sent solar panels, Powerpacks and hundreds of
Powerwall energy storage systems to Puerto Rico. We are also actively working with
various organizations to offer Teslas energy generation and storage solutions that are
cost effective and can provide long-term distributed energy to the island.
We are also continuing to expand the presence of solar and storage product placement
in our stores and service centers. As a result of these efforts, we are seeing a growing
number of Tesla vehicle customers also purchasing our energy generation and storage
systems, which validates our strategy to cross-sell these products.
In Q3, we deployed 110 MWh of energy storage systems, growing 12% from the prior
quarter and increasing 138% year-over-year, driven mainly by increased Powerwall
deliveries. To date, we have also installed more than 80% of the Powerpacks for the
South Australia Energy Storage Project South Australia project; however, revenue will not be recognized until full deployment of
the project.
We also deployed 109 MW of energy generation systems in Q3. The lower deployments are in large part a result of deliberately
deemphasizing commercial and industrial solar energy projects with low profit and limited cash generation. Approximately 46% of the
residential solar energy systems deployed in Q3 were sold, rather than leased, up from 13% in Q3 2016, a continuing trend that drives
revenue growth and improves cash generation. We are expecting cash sales to surpass 50% of residential solar revenue in Q4. Solar
Roof installations will initially ramp slowly in Q4 as we move the production process from Fremont to Gigafactory 2 in Buffalo. As we fine
tune and standardize the production and installation process, we expect to ramp Solar Roof production considerably in 2018.
Q3 2017 RESULTS
Revenue & Gross Margin
Automotive revenue grew 10% as compared to Q3 2016 mainly due to a 4.5% increase in Model S and Model X volumes. ZEV credit
sales were less than $1 million in Q3 as compared to $100 million in Q2 and $139 million in Q3 last year.
Approximately 21% of Q3 deliveries were subject to lease accounting, which is roughly consistent with Q2. Initially for Model 3, we will
not be offering a lease financing option, which will result in upfront revenue recognition of the vehicle and improved cash flows from
Model 3 deliveries.
Non-GAAP automotive gross margin temporarily declined to 18.7%, which was in line with our expectations. The gross margin
declined primarily because of a significant increase in Model 3 manufacturing costs to support the limited initial level of production.
Model S and Model X gross margin declined from Q2 primarily due to one-time price adjustments for discontinued trims and
unfavorable trim mix. Numerous actions to improve Model S and Model X gross margin are underway. Consequently, we expect
Model S and Model X gross margin to improve in upcoming quarters.
Energy generation and storage revenue increased 11% in Q3 compared to Q2 2017 as energy storage sales continue to accelerate.
Gross margin was 25.3%, as compared to 28.9% in Q2 2017, due to energy storage products becoming a larger mix of revenue.
Energy generation and storage gross margin should decline in Q4 mainly due to seasonality of generation by solar assets as well as
increasing mix of energy storage sales. As Gigafactory 1 continues to increase production, gross margin of energy storage products
should continue to improve due to better capacity utilization and additional manufacturing cost reductions.
Other Highlights
Service and Other revenue increased predominantly due to strong growth in used car sales. We expect Service and Other revenue to
increase further in Q4.
Service and Other gross loss increased slightly to $63 million, driven largely by an expansion of our service network in preparation for
a rapid expansion of our fleet of vehicles. Service and Other losses are expected to reduce substantially in each subsequent coming
quarter as our fleet grows and service centers become more utilized. Gross profit from used car sales was approximately break-even
in Q3.
Our GAAP operating expenses increased sequentially by 8% compared to Q2, primarily due to higher selling expenses in preparation
for large increases in vehicle deliveries, expenses associated with record net orders, and one-time expenses of about $30 million.
Customer deposits grew 14% sequentially in Q3, driven primarily by higher demand for Model S, Model X, and Model 3.
Shares outstanding as of September 30, 2017 were approximately 168 million. Fully diluted share count as of September 30, 2017
was approximately 179 million.
Cash Flow and Liquidity
Cash outflow from operating activities during Q3 benefited from the management of working capital. Lower inventory of new and used
vehicles and higher customer deposits improved working capital, with a partial offset due to higher accounts receivables.
In August, we completed the issuance of $1.8 billion of Senior Notes due 2025 at an interest rate of 5.3%. We also used cash to
terminate a revolving credit facility by repaying the outstanding balance of $325 million. At the end of Q3, our gross cash balance
increased to $3.5 billion.
Capital expenditures were $1.1 billion in Q3. The majority of capital expenditures were attributable to Model 3 and Gigafactory 1
production capacity increases.
OUTLOOK
Based on the recent acceleration in order growth, we now expect that Model S and Model X are on pace for about 100,000 deliveries in
2017, an increase of 30% compared to 2016. Notwithstanding these increased deliveries, we plan to produce about 10% fewer Model S
and Model X in Q4 compared to Q3 because of the reallocation of some of the manufacturing workforce towards Model 3 production. As a
result, inventory level of finished Model S and X vehicles should continue to decline.
We expect Model 3 non-GAAP gross margin to reach breakeven by end of Q4, because of increased capacity utilization, and it should
improve rapidly in 2018 to our target of 25%. Our recent production challenges may affect short-term costs, but they have no impact on
our 25% gross margin target, since there has been no change to our projections for material, labor and overhead costs per vehicle.
Due to a higher mix of temporarily lower margin Model 3 deliveries in Q4 compared to Q3, we expect non-GAAP automotive gross margin
to temporarily decline slightly in Q4 to about 15% and then recover starting in Q1. Gross profit is expected to grow more than operating
costs in Q4 compared to Q3, while operating costs are expected to be flat to up slightly in Q4. Between cash on hand, future cash flows
and available lines of credit, we believe that we are well capitalized to accommodate the revised ramp of Model 3 production to 5,000 per
week. Upon achieving this production level, we expect to generate significant cash flows from operating activities.
Capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $1 billion in Q4, driven largely by milestone payments on Model 3 production
equipment, as well as Gigafactory 1, and further expansion of stores, service centers, delivery hubs and the Supercharger network.
Model 3 represents a significant milestone in the coming of age of electric vehicles. We aspire to transform other segments of the
automotive market in the future. At the unveiling of the Tesla Semi on November 16, 2017, we will demonstrate just how compelling
electric drive will be for the global trucking industry. We look forward to showing you something truly incredible.
Elon Musk, Chairman & CEO Deepak Ahuja, Chief Financial Officer
WEBCAST INFORMATION
Tesla will provide a live webcast of its third quarter 2017 financial results conference call beginning at 2:30 p.m. PT on November 1,
2017, at ir.tesla.com. This webcast will also be available for replay for approximately one year thereafter.
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
Certain statements in this shareholder letter, including statements in the Outlook section; statements relating to the progress Tesla is
making with respect to product and software development, such as Model 3, Solar Roof and Autopilot; statements regarding growth in
the number of Tesla store, service center, delivery hub, Supercharger and destination charger locations and in other service and repair
capabilities; statements relating to the production, production rate and delivery timing of products such as Model 3 and Solar Roof and
completion of energy generation and storage projects; statements regarding growth of our energy business and means to achieve such
growth; growth in demand and orders for Tesla products and the catalysts for that growth; the ability to achieve product demand,
volume, production, delivery, inventory, deployment, revenue, cash generation, cash flow, leasing, gross margin, spending, capital
expenditure and profitability targets; productivity improvements and capacity expansion plans, such as for Gigafactory 1; and
statements regarding Gigafactory 1 and Gigafactory 2 timing, plans and output expectations, including those related to battery and
photovoltaic cell and other production, are forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These forward-
looking statements are based on managements current expectations, and as a result of certain risks and uncertainties, actual results
may differ materially from those projected. The following important factors, without limitation, could cause actual results to differ
materially from those in the forward-looking statements: the risk of delays in the manufacture, production, delivery and/or completion of
our vehicles and energy products, particularly Model 3; the ability to design and achieve and grow simultaneous and separate market
acceptance of Model S, Model X and their variants, as well as new vehicle models, specifically Model 3; the ability of suppliers to meet
quality and part delivery expectations at increasing volumes, especially with respect to Model 3 parts; adverse foreign exchange
movements; any failures by Tesla products to perform as expected or if product recalls occur; Teslas ability to continue to reduce or
control manufacturing and other costs; consumers willingness to adopt electric vehicles; competition in the automotive and energy
product markets generally and the alternative fuel vehicle market and the premium sedan, premium SUV and small to medium-sized
sedan markets in particular; Teslas ability to establish, maintain and strengthen the Tesla brand; Teslas ability to manage future
growth effectively as we rapidly grow, especially internationally; the unavailability, reduction or elimination of government and economic
incentives for electric vehicles and energy products; Teslas ability to establish, maintain and strengthen its relationships with strategic
partners such as Panasonic; potential difficulties in finalizing, performing and realizing potential benefits under definitive agreements for
Gigafactory 1 and Gigafactory 2, maintaining Gigafactory 1 and Gigafactory 2 implementation schedules, output and cost estimates;
and Teslas ability to execute on its strategy for new store, delivery hub, service center, Supercharger and other locations and
capabilities. More information on potential factors that could affect our financial results is included from time to time in our Securities
and Exchange Commission filings and reports, including the risks identified under the section captioned Risk Factors in our quarterly
report on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC on August 4, 2017. Tesla disclaims any obligation to update information contained in these
forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.
(2) Our common stock price exceeded the conversion threshold price of our convertible senior notes due 2018 (2018 Notes) issued in
May 2013; therefore, the 2018 Notes are convertible at the holders option during the second quarter of 2017. As such, the carrying
value of the 2018 Notes was classified as a current liability as of June 30, 2017 and the difference between the principal amount
and the carrying value of the 2018 Notes was reflected as convertible debt in mezzanine equity on our condensed consolidated
balance sheet as of June 30, 2017.
Tesla, Inc.
Condensed Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows
(Unaudited)
(In thousands)