Neurology 2017 Imtiaz 1062 8
Neurology 2017 Imtiaz 1062 8
Neurology 2017 Imtiaz 1062 8
Alzheimer disease
A prospective cohort study
GLOSSARY
AD 5 Alzheimer disease; BMI 5 body mass index; CEE 5 conjugated equine estrogen; DSM-IV 5 Diagnostic and Statistical
Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition; HT 5 hormone therapy; ICD-10 5 International Classification of Diseases10;
MPA 5 medroxyprogesterone acetate; SII 5 Social Insurance Institution; WHIMS 5 Womens Health Initiative Memory Study.
Alzheimer disease (AD), the most common form of dementia, accounts for 60%80% of cases.1
Women have AD more often than men either due to their increased life expectancy2,3 or decline
in sex steroid hormone levels around menopause,1,4 although some small studies have not
detected this sex difference.5,6 Neuroprotective effects of estrogen have been observed in exper-
imental animals,710 but clinical trials on postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT) use have not
been successful,1113 including the largest clinical trial to date, the Womens Health Initiative
Memory Study (WHIMS).14 Observational studies support use of HT against AD if initiated
around menopause in some15,16 but not all studies.1720 Similarly, register-based studies have
yielded conflicting results.18,20,21 Results from the Leisure World cohort revealed that the
reduced risk of AD among HT users was a function of dose and duration.22,23
Supplemental data
at Neurology.org
From the Institute of Clinical MedicineNeurology (B.I., M.K., H.S.), Kuopio Musculoskeletal Research Unit, Clinical Research Center (M.T.,
T.R., H.K.), and Research Center for Comparative Effectiveness and Patient Safety (RECEPS) and School of Pharmacy (A.M.T.), University of
Eastern Finland, Kuopio; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology (M.T.), Neurocenter, Neurology (H.S.), and Department of Orthopedics and
Traumatology (H.K.), Kuopio University Hospital, Finland; Department of Medicine (T.R.), University of Cambridge, UK; and Division of
Clinical Geriatrics (M.K.), Center for Alzheimer Research, Karolinska Institutet and Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden.
The views expressed in this article are solely of the authors and not of any funding body. The funders had no role in data collection, management,
analysis, interpretation, or review of the manuscript.
Go to Neurology.org for full disclosures. Funding information and disclosures deemed relevant by the authors, if any, are provided at the end of the article.
The Article Processing Charge was paid by the authors.
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC
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1062 Copyright 2017 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the American Academy of Neurology
The aim of our study is to investigate the systematically evaluates the diagnostic evidence for each AD case
and confirms whether the prespecified criteria are met excluding
association of self-reported and register-
possible alternative diagnoses for memory impairment such as
recorded postmenopausal HT use with AD severe depression, metabolic disturbances, and other forms of
in a longitudinal prospective cohort, while tak- dementia such as vascular dementia without AD-like symptoms.
ing into account various socioeconomic and We also performed sensitivity analyses with dementia as an
outcome. These data were extracted from the National Hospital
lifestyle-related AD risk factors. Discharge register using the following ICD-10 codes: F00F03
(F00, dementia in Alzheimer disease; F01, vascular dementia;
METHODS Study population. The present study is based on F02, dementia in other diseases classified elsewhere; F03, unspec-
the 20-year follow-up of the population of the Kuopio ified dementia) and G30 (Alzheimer disease, early/late onset).
Osteoporosis Risk Factor and Prevention study cohort. A self- This register includes all inpatient admissions. Diagnosis codes
administered baseline postal questionnaire was sent to all for each admission are recorded by attending physician. All
women aged 4756 years who were residents of Kuopio Finnish citizens/long-term residents are covered by tax-supported
Province, Eastern Finland (n 5 14,220), in February 1989. A public health service.
total of 13,100 (92.1%) women responded. The reasons for
nonresponse were lack of address or residence not detected (n 5 Use of HT. Self-reported HT use was recorded as lifetime use in
119) and death (n 5 4). In addition, 947 women did not respond years (and indication of use) at the baseline inquiry in 1989. In all
for other reasons and 50 returned a blank form. The 5-year follow- follow-up questionnaires, numbers of months per year of estrogen
up in 1994, 10-year follow-up in 1999, 15-year follow-up in use were reported and the duration of self-reported estrogen use
2004, and 20-year follow-up in 2009 was mailed to the 13,100, was calculated on basis of these questionnaires. Current
12,562, 12,075, and 11,420 women, respectively. A total of medication prescribed by a physician, duration and purpose of
11,954 (91.2%), 11,538 (91.8%), 10,926 (90.4%), and 8,195 use, and name of tablets used were asked in all inquiries. To
(71.8%) women responded to the 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year follow- exclude the possibility of recall bias in the self-reported
ups, respectively. The questionnaires were sent to women who had questionnaires, we accessed the prescription register data to
responded to the baseline inquiry, were alive, and had a valid ascertain HT use. Vaginal products were excluded. HT was
postal address at that time. defined from the registry as those preparations having systemic
The baseline questionnaire covered demographics, lifestyle, estrogenic properties belonging to the following codes of ATC
medical issues, and other characteristics such as age, height, classification: G03C (estrogens), G03F (estrogen and
weight, smoking, alcohol consumption, health disorders diag- progesterone) excluding oral contraceptives. Self-reported use of
nosed by a physician, reproductive history, type and duration estrogen was categorized into postmenopausal HT based on use
of HT use, operations, occupation, and physical activity. These after the onset of menopause.
questionnaires were repeated in the follow-up inquiries.
The present study included those 8,195 women who had Covariates. Baseline menopause status was categorized to 5
complete data on confounders and self-reported exposure. Out- categories: (1) menstruating, no HT; (2) true menopause; (3)
come data and register-based exposure data were available for menstruating, HT 130 years; (4) hysterectomy and HT, no
all participants. oophorectomy; (5) unclear (hysterectomy, no data on oophorec-
tomy or HT use). When categorizing the self-reported HT to
Outcomes. The main outcome of our study was clinically veri- postmenopausal use, a woman was considered postmenopausal if
fied AD diagnosis. These diagnoses from 19992009 were iden- $12 months had passed since her natural menstrual cycle, if she
tified from the Finnish special reimbursement register maintained had undergone surgical menopause through bilateral
by the Social Insurance Institution (SII). The register contains oophorectomy with or without hysterectomy, or if the time
information on the reimbursed drugs used for chronic illnesses since menopause and the history of HT use could be clarified
such as AD. The Finnish special reimbursement register possesses from the follow-up questionnaire. For the present study, we used
high validity and positive predictive value for AD diagnosis.24 The data on natural menopause (i.e., date of last menstruation,
Finnish Current Care Guideline recommends that all persons collected through self-reports at baseline and 5-year follow-up
with AD are treated with antidementia drugs unless there is assessments). Over 90% of women were postmenopausal at the
a specific contraindication (such as gastric ulcer/intestinal tract second follow-up. Missing information was collected from
operation ,6 months ago or severe asthma or chronic obstructive participants by telephone. Body mass index (BMI) was
pulmonary disease for acetylcholinesterase inhibitors).25 In calculated as the ratio of weight in kilograms to height in
Finland, the diagnosis of probable AD is based on DSM-IV meters squared and was based on self-reporting.
criteria for AD and National Institute of Neurologic and Physical activity was inquired through self-reported data in 3
Communicative Disorders and StrokeAlzheimer Disease and ways at baseline and in all follow-up surveys as follows: leisure
Related Disorders Association.26,27 The main diagnostic criteria time physical activity as well as asking about how physically
were progressive decline in memory and cognition and exclusion demanding work was in the last year; ambulatory status as capa-
of other reasons. Diagnosis of AD was supported by abnormal bility and extent of movement, need of aids in movement, and
MRI or CSF biomarker findings typical for AD. history of joint degeneration; and amount of physical activity,
To be eligible for reimbursed AD medication (acetylcholines- including winter and summer activities, amount of current regu-
terase inhibitors or memantine), a medical statement of a clinically lar physical activity, and its duration (hours per week). Of these 3
verified AD diagnosis needs to be submitted to SII. Thus, case categories, the amount of physical activity was the most predictive
identification is carried out in clinics but is reconfirmed by SII. of AD and thus was included in the analyses.
Summary of anamnestic information from the patients and Data on education were obtained in self-reported data only
family, as well as findings, e.g., MRI/CT, laboratory tests, from a subcohort undergoing bone marrow density measure-
and Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimers Disease, ment. Education was categorized into 4 groups: compulsory
are submitted to the SII, where a geriatrician/neurologist schooling, compulsory schooling 1 maximum 2 years of
Table 1 Risk of developing Alzheimer disease (AD) among hormone therapy (HT) users (according to type of
therapy used) in the whole cohort (n 5 8,195)
Incidence
of AD/1,000
HT person-years Model 1 AD Model 2 AD
Model 1: adjusted for age. Model 2: adjusted for age, body mass index, alcohol, smoking, physical activity, occupation
status, number of births, menopause status, any cancer, and oophorectomy and hysterectomy.
Model 1 Model 2
Incidence of AD/1,000
person-years HR (95% CI) p Value HR (95% CI) p Value
Table 1 shows the relative risk of AD according to years had lower risk of AD in comparison to nonusers
both register-based and self-reported HT use (yes/ (table 3) also after adjusting for lifestyle and socioeco-
no). Neither register-based nor self-reported HT use nomic confounders and variables related to estrogen
was associated with AD risk. The results were similar status. Sensitivity analyses with any dementia as an
in the sensitivity analyses conducted among those outcome produced similar results to those shown in
with data on education (n 5 2,383; tables e-2 and tables 13, although the association between .10
e-3), i.e., no association was detected between HT use years HT use and AD was attenuated and its confi-
(any HT, estrogen, or combination therapy; either dence also included 1 in the sensitivity analyses (ta-
register-based or self-reported) and AD. bles e-4 to e-6).
HT use when categorized according to duration
register-based HT use was not associated with AD DISCUSSION The findings from our large prospec-
(table 2). However, when self-reported data were tive cohort study do not provide strong evidence for
used, those with longest self-reported HT use .10 an association between postmenopausal HT use and
Table 3 Risk of developing Alzheimer disease (AD) among women using postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT)
(self-reported) in the whole cohort (n 5 8,195)
Model 1 Model 2
Postmenopausal HT, y Incidence of AD/1,000 person-years HR (95% CI) p Value HR (95% CI) p Value
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Neurology is the official journal of the American Academy of Neurology. Published continuously since
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ISSN: 0028-3878. Online ISSN: 1526-632X.