Computing

Probabilities
Carl Aljon M. Lacaba, bsmath | Saint Paul School of Professional Studies
Review

A SAMPLE SPACE is the set of all possible outcomes

of an experiment. On the other hand, EVENT refers to
a subset of a sample space.

The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities

Example 1

What are the possible outcomes if two different coins

are tossed at random?

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Example 2

Three books are to be selected from five books on a

shelf. If the books consist of algebra, geometry,
statistics, history, and physics books, write the
sample space and the event “math books”.

The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities

Example 3

Two fair dice are rolled and the outcome is recorded.

Write a set for the following events: (a) sum of 5 and
(b) doubles.

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Definition
The PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT, denoted as P(E), is the
numerical measure of the likelihood that an event will
occur. It is calculated by finding the quotient of the
number of favourable outcomes and the total number of
possible outcomes. In symbols,
P(E) = n(E)/n(S),
where n(E) is the number of elements in the event and
n(S) is the number of the elements in the sample space.
The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities
Note

1. The probability of an event is always a value between

and including 0 and 1, in symbols
0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1.

2. The probability that an event will happen and the

probability that it will not give a sum of 1, in symbols
P(E) + P(E’) = 1
The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities
Example 4

If you flip two coins, what is the probability of getting both

heads?

The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities

Example 5

A pair of dice is thrown, what is the probability of getting a

prime sum?

The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities

Example 6

If a card is selected at random from a standard deck of

52 cards, what is the probability of getting a black jack?

The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities

Example 7

Moira collects stamps from different countries. She has

10 different stamps from China, 5 from Thailand, 3 from
France, 6 from USA, and 1 from Venezuela. Her sister
Lindsay borrows one stamp for a school assignment. What
is the probability that the stamp Lindsay borrows is from
Thailand?

The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities

Example 8

Jess has a bag with 6 red, 4 blue, and 8 green marbles.

What is the probability that a marble chosen at random is
not red?

The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities

Example 9

A four-digit number is formed using the digits 1, 2, 3, 5, 8,

and 9. What is the probability that the number formed is
even?

The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities

Example 10

Marie has 8 books including books on geometry,

chemistry, biology, history, English, algebra, statistics,
and Filipino. What is the probability that her math books
(geometry, algebra, and statistics) are located at the
rightmost part of the shelf but not necessarily in that
order?

The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities

Example 11

Mrs. Balao is randomly choosing 3 students for a team

who will compete in a math quiz bee, and there are 5 girls
and 8 boys to choose from. What is the probability of
having a team made up of 2 girls and a boy?

The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities

Definition
MULTIPLICATION RULE OF PROBABILITY:
Independent Events

Two events A and B are independent when the outcome of

the first does not affect the outcome of the other. In
general, the probability of event A followed by another
independent event B occurring is given by
P(A∩B) = P(A) x P(B).
The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities
Example 12

A coin is tossed and then a die is rolled. What is the

probability of getting a head followed by a 4?

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Example 13

A pair of die is rolled thrice. What is the probability of

getting doubles in the three rolls?

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Example 14

There are 7 green, 4 blue, and 9 red marbles in a box. A

marble is drawn at random and, after recording its color,
the marble is returned in the box. Another marble is then
drawn. What is the probability that both marbles are red?

The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities

Example 15

Suppose a football player has a 65% chance of making a

goal that he can keep each time he tries to make a goal.
What is the probability that he makes a goal the first
three times he tries but not on the fourth try?

The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities

Definition

MULTIPLICATION RULE OF PROBABILITY:

Dependent Events

If events A and B are dependent events such that the

outcome of A affects the outcome of B, then the
probability that “event A followed by event B” happens is
P(A∩B) = P(A) x P(B|A).
The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities
Example 16

Jashaine draws 2 cards at random from a standard deck

of 52 cards without replacement. What is the probability
of getting 2 ace cards?

The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities

Example 17

Gabriel has a candy box containing 9 chocolate candies

and 12 lollipops. If he chooses 2 of them at random, what
is the probability that he gets 2 lollipops?

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Quiz

What is the probability that two of you (in your section)

have the same birthday this year?

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Definition

ADDITION RULE FOR PROBABILITY:

Mutually Exclusive Events

The probability of a single event that is made up of two

different mutually exclusive events is given by
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B).

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Example 18

A card is drawn at random from a standard deck of cards.

What is the probability that the card drawn is an ace or a
king?

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Example 19

A pair of dice is rolled. What is the probability that the

sum is 5 or 6?

The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities

Definition

ADDITION RULE FOR PROBABILITY:

Inclusive Events

If events A and B are given such that A and B have

common outcomes, then the probability of the event “A or
B” is determined by
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B).
The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities
Example 20

If a card is selected at random from a standard deck of

cards, what is the probability that the card drawn is a red
card or a face card?

The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities

Definition

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT

The conditional probability of an event is the probability of

the event given the condition that another event has
previously occurred. It is computed using the formula
P(B|A) = P(A∩B)/P(A), where P(A) ≠ 0.

The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities

Example 21

Two strips of paper are chosen, without replacement, from

a small box containing blue and white strips. The
probability of selecting a blue strip and then, a white strip
is 0.54 and the probability of selecting a blue strip on the
first draw is 0.72. What is the probability of selecting a
white strip on the second draw given that the first strip
chosen was blue?
The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities
Example 22

Suppose two cards are selected at random from a

standard deck of 52 cards. Find the probability that the
second card is also an ace given that the first card is an
ace.

The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities

Example 23

A marble is chosen at random from a set of marbles

divided into two boxes. The first box (B1) contains 3 red
and 8 white balls while the second box (B2) contains 4 red
and 5 white marbles. A marble is selected at random from
either of the two boxes and it is white. What is the
probability that the marble came from the first box?

The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities

Definition

BAYE’S THEOREM FOR CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Baye’s formula is given by

P(Sj|A) = P(A|Sj)P(Sj)/[P(A|S1)P(S1) + P(A|S2)P(S2) +

... + P(A|Si)P(Si)].

The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities

Example 24

Suppose a quality control officer is inspecting three bins

containing 30 products each. The bins labelled A, B, and
C contain 10 , 5, and 15 defective products, respectively.
One product was randomly chosen and was found to be
defective. From which box did the product most likely
came from?

The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities

Summary

Probability is an important skill that allows one to

consider all possible outcomes before embarking on an
important decision. Knowing the chances that an event
will happen can give clear directions involving the
interplay of your choices and actions.

The Probability Theory | Computing Probabilities