Module 2

Computing Probabilities
Sample Spaces and Events
Sample Space
Outcome space
Simply the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment

Events
subset of the sample space

Note:

Using braces
Example

Suppose two different coins are tossed at ramdom. You

know that the possible outcomes are HH, HT, TH, and TT.
Thus, the sample space S is given by the finite set.

S= HH,HT,TH,TT .
Simple Probability
Once the number of elements in both the event and the sample space is determined,
it is now easy to compute the probability of an event.

The probability of an Event

Numerical value that describes the likehood that an event will happen. It is simply
calculated using the ratio of the cardinality of the event and the cardinality of the sample
space.

Denoted as P(E) is the numerical measure of the likehood that an event will occur.
It is calculated in finding the quotient of the number of favorable outcomes and the total
number of possible outcomes. In symbols:

P(E) = n (E)
n (S)

Where n (E) is the number of the elements in the events and n (S) is
the number of the elements in the sample space.
Example

If you flip two coins , the event both

heads is given by the set (HH) and the
sample space is the set (HH, HT, TH,TT).
Using the formula, the probability that the
two coins will land on both heads is
P(E) = n (E)/ n (S) = . This can also be
written as 0.25 or 25%.
Probability Involving a Sequence of Events

This rule especially applies when the events are

independents, that is, two events in which the outcome of
one does not affect the other.

Example

Landing on a head when a coin is tossed and drawing a

diamond card from a standard deck of cards are
independent events.
Multiplication Rule of Probability: Independent Events
Two events A and B are independent when the outcome
of the first does not affect the outcome of the other. In
general, A followed by another independent event B
occuring is given by

P(A B) = P (A) x P (B).

Note that this rule may be extended for a sequence

with more than two events.
Example

A coin is tossed and then a die is rolled. What is the probabilty of

getting a head followed by a 4?

Let A be the event of getting a head from the coin toss and B the event
of getting a 4 from rolling a die. Then,

P(A) = and P(B)= 1/6

Thus, the probabilty of the coin landing on a head followed by getting a

4 in a roll of the die is
P(A B) = P (A) x P (B).
P(A B) = x 1/6 = 1/12
Multiplication Rule of Probabilty: Dependent
Events

If events A and B are dependent events such that

the outcome of Affects the outcome of b, then the
probability that event A followed by event B happens
is
P(A B) = P (A) x P (B A)
Where P(A) is the probability that event A happens and
P(B/A) is the probability that event B happens after A
happened.
Example:

Josiah draws 2 cards at ramdom from a standard deck of 52 cards

without replacement. What is the probability of getting 2 ace cards?

Solution:

Since replacement is not allowed,drawing the first card will have

an effect on the outcome of drawing the second card. Thus, the events are
dependent. Let A be the event of choosing an ace on the first draw and B
the evnet of choosing another ace on the second. Since there are 52 cards
and 4 of which are ace, then P(A) = 4/ 52 =1/13. Because 1 ace card is
already selected, there will only be 51 cards on the second draw with 3
ace cards, hence, P(B/A) = 3/51= 1/17

Therefore P(A B) = P (A) x P (B/A) = 1/13 x 1/17 = 1/221 or approximiately

0.45%
Probability of Compound Events

Sometimes, you want to find the probability of only one

event that is composed of two different events , for example,
the event of getting a black or red card from a single draw
of card. Usually, these two different events that make-up a
single event have no common outcome or element, thus,
mutually exclusive. How do you find the probability of
these events?

Since there is only once event divided into two

different events, you simply get the probability of the union
of the individual events.
Addition Rule for Probability : Mutually Exclusive Events

The probability of a single event that is made up of two different

mutually exclusive events is given by P(A U B )= P (A) + P (B).

Example:

A card is drawn at random a standard deck of cards. What is the

probability that the card drawn is an ace or a king?

Solution:

The event ace of king is made up of two different events: ace and
king. The two events are mutually exclusive (with no common elements) and
you are finding the probability of their union (suggested by the preposition
or).
Let A be the evnt of drawing an ace and B the event of drawing a king. Then,
P(A) = 4/52 or 1/13 and similarly P(B) = 4/52 or 1/13 since there are
4 aces and 4 kings in a standard deck of 52 cards. Thus, P(ace or
king) = 1/13 + 1/13 =2/13.
Addition Rule of Probability: Inclusive Events

If events A and B are given such that A and B have

common outcomes, then the probability of the event A or
B is determined by:

P(A B) = P (A) + P (B) P (A B)

Example

If a card is selected at ramdom from a standard deck of cards,

what is the probability that the card drawn is a red card or a face card?

Solution:

P(red card)= 26/52 P(face card)= 12/52 P(red face card)= 6/52

P(red or face card)= P (red card) + P(face card)- P(red face card)

P (red or face card)= 26/52 + 12/52 6/52 = 32/52 =8/13

Conditional Probability

In the previous section of this module, you have

computed the probability of the occurrence of a sequence of
dependent events using the formula P(A B) = P (A) x P (B A)

The quantity P (B A) denotes the probability that he

second B will happen given that the first event A
already happen. In some problems, the process will
be reversed and you will be required to find this
quantiy. Such is the case for conditional
probability.
 In simple terms, the conditional probability of an event
is its probability based on a condition from a precedent event.
To illustrate, consider the experiment where you roll two dice
at ramdom. You know that the probability of getting a sum of
5 is 4/36 or 1/9 because there are four combinations (1,4),
(2,3), (2,3),and (4,1)-that will give a sum of 5 out of the 36
total combinations. Suppose you know that the first die
shows an even number, then the probability of getting a sum
of 5 is still 1/9 since there are only 18 total combinations now
and two favorable combinations (2,3) and (4,1). But if you
know that the first die shows a 3, the total possible outcomes
will be trimmed down to 6 and the favorable outcomes is
only (3,2), making the probability
 From these illustrations, the following observation can
be made:

1. The conditional probability of an event changes resulting

from the condition that another event has previously
occurred.

2. In computing the conditional probability of an event, the

given condition (the first event) determines the new sample
space and the favorable outcomes are determined by the
common elements of the antecedent event and the event
being considered; therefore,
P (A B)
P(A)
Conditional Probability of an Event

The condiional probability of an event is the probability of

the event given the condition that another event has previously
occurred. It is computed using the formula
P (A B) Where P(A) = 0.
P(B A) = P(A)
Example

Two strips of paper ares chosen,without replacement , from

a small box containing blue and white strips. The probability of
selecting a blue strip and then, a white strips is 0.54 and the
probability of selecting a blue strip on the first draw is 0.72. What
is the probability of selecting a white strip on the second draw
given that the first strip chosen was blue?

Solution:

Let A be the event of selecting a blue strip and B the event

of selecting a white strip. From the problem, it is given that
P(A B)= 0.54 and P(A)= 0.72. Applying the conditional
probability formula, we have
P(B/A)= 0.54 = OR 75%.
0.72
Bayes Theorem

Sometimes, a probability experiment

involves a sample space that is
partitioned or stratified into two or more
mutually exclusive events and you want
to know from which statum a specific
outcome comes from.
Example:

A marble is chosen at ramdom from a set of marbles divided into two

boxes. The first box (B1) contains 3 red and 8 white marbles while the second box
(B2) contains 4 red and 5 white marbles. A marbles. Is selected at ramdom from
either of the two boxes and it is white. What is the probability that the marble came
from the first box?

The following diagram illustrate certain probabilities from the problem:

3/11 R
B1
P(B1 R) = * 9/11 =3/22
8/11 W P(B1 W) = * 8/11 =4/11
P(B2 R) = * 4/9 =2/9
4/9 R
P(B2 W) = * 5/9 =5/18

B2 5/9 W
Bayes Formula for Conditional Probability

Bayes theorem is used when a sample space S is divided

into i number of partitions or strata and the stratum form which the
outcome A belongs is determined. Bayes formula is given by:

P(A/ Sj) P(Sj)

P(Sj/A) =
P(A/S1)P(S1) + P(A/S2)P(S2)+ + P(A/S1)P(S1)

Where A is the outcomes, Sj is the specific stratum where A belongs, and

S1,S2, S3,S1, are the different partitions of S.
Example:

Suppose a quality control offficer is

inspecting three bins containing 30 products
each. The bins labeled A,B, and C contain
10,5, and 15 defective products,respectively.
One product was randomly chosen and was
found to be defective. From which box did
the product most likely come from?