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Theory, solved examples and practice questions

MEANING AND DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY

As the Oxford dictionary states it, Probability means ‘The extent to
which something is probable; the likelihood of something happening or
being the case’.
In mathematics too, probability indicates the same – the likelihood of the
occurrence of an event.

Number desired outcome

P(Event) = Total possible outcomes

Examples of events can be :

 Tossing a coin with the head up
 Drawing a red pen from a pack of different coloured pens
 Drawing a card from a deck of 52 cards etc.
Either an event will occur for sure, or not occur at all. Or there are
possibilities to different degrees the event may occur.
An event that occurs for sure is called a Certain event and its
probability is 1.
An event that doesn’t occur at all is called an impossible event and its
probability is 0.
This means that all other possibilities of an event occurrence lie
between 0 and 1.

1
This is depicted as follows:
0 <= P(A) <= 1
where A is an event and P(A) is the probability of the occurrence of the
event.
This also means that a probability value can never be negative.
Every event will have a set of possible outcomes. It is called the ‘sample
space’.
Consider the example of tossing a coin.
When a coin is tossed, the possible outcomes are Head and Tail. So, the
sample space is represented as {H, T}.
Similarly when two coins are tossed together, the sample space is
{(H,H), (H,T), (T,H), (T,T)}.
1
The probability of head each time you toss the coin is 2 . So is the
probability of tail.
Basic formula of probability
The Probability of the occurrence of an event A is defined as:

No . of ways A can occur

P(A) = Total no . of possible outcomes

Another example is the rolling of dice. When a single die is rolled, the
sample space is {1,2,3,4,5, 6}.
What is the probability of rolling a 5 when a die is rolled?
No. of ways it can occur = 1
Total no. of possible outcomes = 6

2
So the probability of rolling a particular number when a die is rolled =
1/6.

Compound probability
Compound probability is when the problem statement asks for the
likelihood of the occurrence of more than one outcome.

Formula for compound probability

 P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
where A and B are any two events.
P(A or B) is the probability of the occurrence of at least one of the
events.
P(A and B) is the probability of the occurrence of both A and B at the
same time.

Mutually exclusive events:

Mutually exclusive events are those where the occurrence of one
indicates the non-occurrence of the other
OR
When two events cannot occur at the same time, they are considered
mutually exclusive.
Note: For a mutually exclusive event, P(A and B) = 0.

Let’s examine some illustrative examples

Example 1: What is the probability of getting a 2 or a 5 when a die is
rolled?

3
Solution:
1
Taking the individual probabilities of each number, getting a 2 is 6 and
so is getting a 5.
Applying the formula of compound probability,
Probability of getting a 2 or a 5,
P(2 or 5) = P(2) + P(5) – P(2 and 5)
1 1 0 2−0
= + −
6 6 6 = 6

2 1
= 6 =3 .

Example 2: Consider the example of finding the probability of selecting

a black card or a 6 from a deck of 52 cards.

Solution:
We need to find out P(B or 6)
26
Probability of selecting a black card = 52
4
Probability of selecting a 6 = 52

2
Probability of selecting both a black card and a 6 = 52

P(B or 6) = P(B) + P(6) – P(B and 6)

26 4 2
= + −
52 52 52

28
= 52
7
= 13 .

4
Independent and Dependent Events
Independent Event
When multiple events occur, if the outcome of one event DOES
NOT affect the outcome of the other events, they are called independent
events.
Say, a die is rolled twice. The outcome of the first roll doesn’t affect the
second outcome. These two are independent events.

Example 3: Say, a coin is tossed twice. What is the probability of

getting two consecutive tails?

Solution
1
Probability of getting a tail in one toss = 2

1 1 1
The coin is tossed twice. So ×
2 2 = 4 is the answer.

Here’s the verification of the above answer with the help of sample
space.
When a coin is tossed twice, the sample space is {(H,H), (H,T), (T,H),
(T,T)}.
Our desired event is (T,T) whose occurrence is only once out of four
possible outcomes and hence, our answer is 1/4.

Example 4: Consider another example where a pack contains 4 blue, 2

red and 3 black pens. If a pen is drawn at random from the pack,
replaced and the process repeated 2 more times, What is the probability
of drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen?
5
Solution
Here, total number of pens = 9
4
Probability of drawing 1 blue pen = 9
4
Probability of drawing another blue pen = 9
3
Probability of drawing 1 black pen = 9
Probability of drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen
4 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 4
= × × + × × + × ×
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

3× 48 144 16
= 729
=
729 = 81

Dependent Events
When two events occur, if the outcome of one event affects the outcome
of the other, they are called dependent events.
Consider the aforementioned example of drawing a pen from a pack,
with a slight difference.
Example 5: A pack contains 4 blue, 2 red and 3 black pens. If 2 pens are
drawn at random from the pack, NOT replaced and then another pen is
drawn. What is the probability of drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen?

Solution:
4
Probability of drawing 1 blue pen = 9
3
Probability of drawing another blue pen = 8
3
Probability of drawing 1 black pen = 7
4 3 3 3
Probability of drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen = 9 × 8 × 7 ×3 = 14

6
Let’s consider another example:
Example 6: What is the probability of drawing a king and a queen
consecutively from a deck of 52 cards, without replacement.

Solution
4 1
Probability of drawing a king = 52 = 13

After drawing one card, the number of cards are 51.

4
Probability of drawing a queen = 51 .

Now, the probability of drawing a king and queen consecutively is

1 4 4
×
13 51
= 663

Conditional probability
Conditional probability is calculating the probability of an event given
that another event has already occured .
The formula for conditional probability P(A|B), read as P(A given B) is
P ( A∧B)
P(A|B) = P (B)

Consider the following example:

Example 7: In a class, 40% of the students study math and science. 60%
of the students study math. What is the probability of a student studying
science given he/she is already studying math?

Solution
7
P(M and S) = 0.40
P(M) = 0.60
P ( M ∧S) 0.4 2
P(S|M) = P( M ) = 0.6 = 3 or 0.67

Complement of an event
A complement of an event A can be stated as that which does NOT
contain the occurrence of A.
A complement of an event is denoted as P(Ac) or P(A’).
P(Ac) = 1 – P(A)
or it can be stated, P(A)+P(Ac) = 1
For example,
if A is the event of getting a head in coin toss, Ac is not getting a head
i.e., getting a tail.
if A is the event of getting an even number in a die roll, Ac is the event of
NOT getting an even number i.e., getting an odd number.
if A is the event of randomly choosing a number in the range of -3 to 3,
Ac is the event of choosing every number that is NOT negative i.e., 0,1,2
& 3 (0 is neither positive or negative).

Consider the following example:

Example 8: A single coin is tossed 5 times. What is the probability of
getting at least one head?
Solution:
Consider solving this using complement.
1
Probability of getting no head = P(all tails) = 32

8
 1 31
P(at least one head) = 1 – P(all tails) = 1 – 32 = 32 .

Sample Probability questions with solutions

Probability Example 1
What is the probability of the occurrence of a number that is odd or less
than 5 when a fair die is rolled.
Solution
Let the event of the occurrence of a number that is odd be ‘A’ and the
event of the occurrence of a number that is less than 5 be ‘B’. We need
to find P(A or B).
3
P(A) = 6 (odd numbers = 1,3 and 5)
4
P(B) = 6 (numbers less than 5 = 1,2,3 and 4)
2
P(A and B) = 6 (numbers that are both odd and less than 5 = 1 and 3)

Now, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

3 4 2
= 6 +6 – 6

5
P(A or B) = 6 .

Probability Example 2
A box contains 4 chocobars and 4 ice creams. Tom eats 3 of them one
after another. What is the probability of sequentially choosing 2
chocobars and 1 icecream?
Solution

9
 4 1
Probability of choosing 1 chocobar == 8 = 2

After taking out 1 chocobar, the total number is 7.

3
Probability of choosing 2nd chocobar == 7

4 2
Probability of choosing 1 ice-cream out of a total of 6 = 6 = 3

So the final probability of choosing 2 choco-bars and 1 ice-cream

1 3 2 1
= × × =
2 7 3 7

Probability Example 3
When two dice are rolled, find the probability of getting same
number on both the first die and the second , given that the sum
should be at least 6.

Solution
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1,1 1,2 1, 3 1,4 1,5 1,6
2 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6
3 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6

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 4 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6
5 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6
6 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6

Same space = {(3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6)}

4 1
P(same number and sum at least 6) = =
36 9

Probability Example 4
When two dice are rolled, find the probability of getting same number
on both dice, given that the sum should be:
(a) At most 6,
(b) exactly 6,
(c) Less than 6.
Solution

1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1,1 1,2 1, 3 1,4 1,5 1,6
2 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6
3 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6
4 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6
5 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6
6 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6

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 3 1
(a) P(same number given that sum at most 6) = 6 = 2
1
(b) P(same number given that sum exactly 6) = 6
2 1
(c) P(same number given that sum less than 6) = 6 = 3

Probability Example 5
When two dice are rolled, find the probability of getting a greater
number on the first die than the one on the second, given that the sum
should equal 8.
Solution

1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1,1 1,2 1, 3 1,4 1,5 1,6
2 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6
3 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6
4 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6
5 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6
6 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6

Let the event of getting a greater number on the first die be G.

There are 5 ways to get a sum of 8 when two dice are rolled = {(2,6),
(3,5),(4,4), (5,3),(6,2)}.

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And there are two ways where the number on the first die is greater than
the one on the second given that the sum should equal 8, G = {(5,3),
(6,2)}.
5 2
Therefore, P(Sum equals 8) = = 36 and P(G) = 36 .

P ( G∧∑ equals 8 )
Now, P(G|sum equals 8) =
P ( ∑ equal 8 )

2 5 2 36 2
= 36 ÷ 36 = 36 × 5
=¿
5

GEOMETRIC PROBABILITY
Geometric probability is calculated as the ratio of desired area to the
total given area.

Desired area
P (Region) = Total area

For example, if we have a dart of radius 10cm, having a small circle in

the center with radius 2cm. Now the probability that we hit the small
circle is the ratio of area of the small circle to the area of the bigger
circle.

Now, Total Area = Area of Bigger Circle = π ×102 = 100 π

Desired area = Area of Smaller Circle = π ×22 =4 π

Desired Area 4π 1
The geometric probability = Total Area = =
100 π 25

1
Hence, the geometric probability ¿ 25 or 0.04

13
Example2: A square of side 5cm, and has a rectangle of area 10cm2
within it. If we throw a coin in the square then, find the probability of
the coin hitting the rectangle.

We have, desired area = 10cm2

Total Area = Area of Square = 5×5 = 25cm 2

10
Probability of hitting region inside the rectangle = 25 = 0.4

Example3:

A big square of side 24 cm has a small square within it of area 16 cm2.

Find the probability of a dart hitting the small square.

Solution:

We have total area as the area of big square.

Hence, total area = 24 × 24= 576cm2.

Desired area is the area of small square, that is, 16cm2.

2
16 cm 1
Geometric probability = 576 c m2 = 36 .

1
Hence, the probability of hitting the small square is 36 .

Example 4

Suppose there is a rectangular playground with sides 15 feet and 25 feet

respectively. It has a semicircle area on one of its sides with radius 5

14
feet. If a ball hits that area, it will be counted as a point. Find the
probability of getting a point.

Solution:
The total area will be the area of the rectangular field.
Hence, total area = 15 × 25 = 375

Desired area will be the area of the semicircle.

2
25 π
Desired area = π ×5
2
= 2 = 12.5π

12.5 π
Geometric probability = 375 = 0.105
Hence, the probability of getting a point is 0.105

Example 5: In a circle of radius 5cm, there is a square of side 2cm.

Find the probability that a dart thrown will hit the circle but not the
square.

Solution

Total Area = π r 2 = π 52 =25 π

Area of square = 2× 2 = 4

Desired Area = 25 π−4

25 π −4
Geometric probability = 25 π = 0.949
Hence, the probability of hitting the circle but not the square = 0.95

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FURTHER PROBABILITY INVOLVING SHADED REGIONS

Example 1:

A dart is thrown at random into a board that has the shape of a circle as
shown below. Calculate the probability that the dart will hit the shaded
region. (Use π = 3.142)

Solution:

Total area of board = 3.142 × 14 2 = 615.83 cm2

Area of non-shaded circle = 3.142 × 7 2 = 153.99 cm2
Area of shaded region = 615.83 – 153.99 = 461.84 cm2 = 462 cm2
(rounded to whole number)

Probability of hitting the shaded region =

Area of the shaded region
P(Hitting the shaded region) = Total area of the board
462 3
¿
616
= 4
or 0.75

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Example 2:

The figure shows a circle divided into sectors of different colors.

If a point is selected at random in the circle, calculate the probability that

it lies:

a) in the red sector

b) in the green sector.
c) in any sector except the green sector.

Solution:
1 angle of thered sector
a) Area of red sector = 2× area of the circle = 360
180 1
Probability that the point lies on red sector = 360 =¿ 2
1 angle of the green sector
b) Area of green sector = 3 × area of the circle = 360

17
 120 1
Probability that the point lies on green sector = 360 = 3
c) In any sector except the green sector.
Probability that the point does not lie in the green sector =1
−1 2
−P(Green sector ) =1 =
3 3

Example3

From the figure below, what is the probability of randomly throwing a

dart such that it hits within the red area, given that the dart will always
land within the boundary of the outer circle?

Solution

In order to find the probability, it is necessary to apply the formulas for

areas involved.

18
The probability will be found by finding the area of the region that is
considered a success (the red area) divided by the sample space which is
the region contained by the outer circle.

In order to solve this problem, you must know the radius of the circle.

If the radius of the circle shaded red is 1 and the radius of the sample
space circle is 5, the Probability of landing in the red region is
Area of Red
P(Red)= Area of outer ¿=
˚ π 1
= ¿
25 π 25

Remark: The figures do not always have to be the same.

Example4

The figure below shows a circle within a rectangle.

In this example, the outer region is a rectangle and the target area is a
circle. To find the probability of randomly hitting the target area with a
dart,
¿˚
P(blue region) = area of area of rectangle
¿

If the radius of the circle is 1 cm, the length of the rectangle is 5cm, and
the width is 2.5 cm.
π π 3.142
P(blue) = 5× 2.5 = 12.5 = 12.5 =0.251

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Example5: In order to find the probability of a multiple of regions, it is
necessary to add the regions then divide by the sample space.

In this example, if we wanted to find the probability of landing in the

yellow region, we could do the following: find the area of each circle,
add the areas together and then divide by the area of the square that
contains the circles.

How can we do this without knowing the measures of the sides or the
radius?

The circles are tangent to each other and to the square. The radius is
perpendicular to the tangent line at the point of tangency so the height of
the polygon is equal to 2 diameters as is the base.

The diameter is equal to 2(radius). Let r = the radius of the circle. The
area of the circles is 4 π r 2 . There are four circles so the area of the
shaded region is4 π r 2 .

To find the area of the square, write it in terms of the radius of the
circles. The base is 4r and the height is 4r. The area of the square is (4r)
(4r)= 16 r 2

The probability of the shaded region

20
 2
Area of the 4 circles 4πr π
P(shaded region) = Area of the square = 16 r
2 = 4

Regardless of the radius of the circle, this would be the probability of

landing in the shaded region.

Example6:

When a skydiver jumps from an airplane, she usually has a landing area
already in mind before the jump. What if she wanted to land in the target
below? What is the probability that she will hit the target (an equilateral
triangle with sides of 2 m), assuming that she is certain to land within
the 10m x 10m square.

The area of the success is the area of the triangle.

The sample space is the area of the square.

Area of thered triangle √ 3

The Probability of Landing on the target = Areaof the square
=
100

1.732
¿ =0.0173
100

This would be a target left to an expert because the probability is less

than 2%.

Example 7:

In the figure below, PQRS is a rectangle, and A, B, C, D are the

midpoints of the respective sides as shown.

21
An arrow is shot at random into the rectangle PQRS. Calculate the
probability that the arrow strikes:
a) triangle AQB.
b) a shaded region.
c) Either triangle BRC or the unshaded region.

Solution:

a) Let PQ = 2x and QR = 2y. Then, AQ = x and QB = y.

Area of rectangle PQRS = 2x × 2y = 4xy
1
Area AQB = 2 xy
1 1
Probability of striking triangle AQB = 2 xy ÷ 4xy = 8
b) All the shaded triangles are equal.
1
Total area of shaded regions = 4 × 2 xy = 2xy
1
Probability of striking a shaded region = 2xy ÷ 4xy = 2
c) Area of unshaded region = 4xy – 2xy = 2xy
1
Probability of striking unshaded region = 2xy ÷ 4xy = 2
1
Area of triangle BRC = 2 xy
1 1
Probability of striking triangle BRC= 2 xy ÷ 4 xy = 8
1 1 5
Probability of striking triangle BRC or unshaded region = + =
8 2 8

PRACTICE PROBLEMS
22
Find the probability of the blue shaded regions.

1.

2.

3. If you throw a dart randomly at the target shown, what is the

probability that you will hit the shaded area?

23
4.

ABCD is a square. M is the midpoint of BC and N is the midpoint

of CD. A point is selected at random in the square. Calculate the
probability that it lies in the triangle MCN.

5. The figure shows a circle with centre O and radius 8 cm. Ð BOD =
72˚. The radius of the smaller circle is 4 cm. A point is selected at
random inside the larger circle BCDE.

24
Calculate the probability that the point lies
a) inside the sector BODC.
b) inside the smaller circle
c) neither in the sector BODC nor in the smaller circle.

6. Mrs. Hollands worth finds the above targets boring so she designs her
own dart board on a 2 feet square board as shown below. If you throw a
dart randomly at this strange target, what would be the probability that
you land in the interior purple region (notice this region is not a
polygon)?

25
 SOLUTION TO PRACTICE PROBLEMS

Find the probability of the blue shaded regions.

1.

26
 Areaof the blue region 31
P(Blue region) = Area of the entire rectangular region = 40 = 0.775

2.

¿˚ 4 × 3.142 12.568
P(Blue Region) = Areaof the Blue
Area of the rectangle
¿ = 40
=
40 =
0.3142

3. If you throw a dart randomly at the target shown, what is the

probability that you will hit the shaded area?

27
 Areaof the red triangle 3 1
P(Red region) = Area of the entire square = 36 = 12 = 0.0833

4.

ABCD is a square. M is the midpoint of BC and N is the midpoint

of CD. A point is selected at random in the square. Calculate the
probability that it lies in the triangle MCN.

Solution:

28
Let 2x be the length of the square.

Area of square = 2x × 2x = 4x2

5. The figure shows a circle with centre O and radius 8 cm. Ð BOD =
72˚. The radius of the smaller circle is 4 cm. A point is selected at
random inside the larger circle BCDE.

29
Calculate the probability that the point lies
a) inside the sector BODC.
b) inside the smaller circle
c) neither in the sector BODC nor in the smaller circle.

Solution:

a)
1
Area of sector BODC = 5 × area of the large circle

1
Probability that the point lies in sector BODC = 5

b)
1
Area of smaller circle = 4 × area of the large circle

1
Probability that the point lies in the smaller circle = 4

30
c) Probability that the point does not lie in sector BODC or the smaller
circle
1 1
= 1−( 5 + 4 )

−9
=1 20

11
¿
20

= 0.55

6. Mrs. Hollandsworth finds the above targets boring so she designs her
own dart board on a 2 feet square board as shown below. If you throw a
dart randomly at this strange target, what would be the probability that
you land in the interior purple region (notice this region is not a
polygon)?

31
 SOLUTION

The area of the square board = 2x2= 4square feet

Area of the 4circles = 4( π r 2 ¿=4 ×3.142 ×0.5 ×0.5 = 3.142

Area of the unshaded regions = 4 -3.142 = 0.858

There are 16 equal spaces whose areas = 0.858

4 of such regions = area of the purple region
0.858
Hence area of purple shaded region = 4 =0.2145
Consequently, probability of the purple shaded region =

Area of the purple shaded part 0.2145

Total area of the entire square board = 4
=0.0536

If the dart was certain to land in the purple or yellow region, how would
the above probability change? In other words, what is the probability of
the dart randomly landing in the purple region given it must land within
the yellow region?

32