YEAR 10

PROBABILITY
Term 4
2023-2024
 INTRODUCTION
Questions of chance come into our
everyday life from what is the weather
going to be like tomorrow to who is going
to wash the dishes tonight. Words like
‘certain’, ‘even’ or ‘unlikely’ are often used
to roughly describe the chance of an
event happening but probability refines
this to numbers to help make more
accurate predictions.
 Probability is a
measurehow
likely something
is to happen.
The probability of an event occurring is somewhere between
impossible and certain. As well as words, we can use numbers to
show the probability of something happening:
- Impossible is zero
- Certain is one
 01
PROBABILITY OF SINGLE
EVENT
 SAMPLE SPACE AND EVENTS

The sample space, usually denoted by 𝑆, is

the set containing all possible outcomes of a
probability experiment.
An event is a set of the favourable outcomes.
An event is a subset of the sample space.
Example
Rolling an ordinary fair die is an experiment that has six possible
outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.
Obtaining an odd number with the die is an event that has three
favourable outcomes: 1, 3, 5
 RANDOM SELECTION

The purpose of selecting objects at random

is to ensure that each has the same chance
of being selected. This method of selection
is called fair or unbiased.
Example
Let us consider a probability experiment in which a card is
chosen at random from a deck of 12 cards, numbered
1, 2, 3, … , 12.
Since every number from 1 to 12 is a possible outcome of
experiment, the sample space can be written as:
𝑆 = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
𝑛 𝑆 = 12
When one object is randomly selected from 𝑛 objects, the
probability of selecting any particular object is:

𝒔𝒆𝒍𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒂𝒏𝒚 𝟏
𝑷 =
𝒑𝒂𝒓𝒕𝒊𝒄𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒓 𝒐𝒃𝒋𝒆𝒄𝒕 𝒏
Example
Consider randomly selecting 1 student from a group of 19,
where 11 are boys and 8 are girls.

Event/outcome Probability
Selecting any particular boy 1
19
Selecting any particular girl 1
19
Selecting any particular student 1
19
If E represent an event that is likely to occur and S
represents the sample space of all possible outcomes, then
the probability of event E occurring is:

𝑛(𝐸) = number of outcomes

favourable to event E
𝒏 𝑬
𝑷 𝑬 = 𝑛(𝑆) = total number of possible
𝒏 𝑺 outcomes of the sample space
S.
Example
A box contains 25 units of black pen and 15 units of red pen. If
a pen is picked at random from the box, find the probability that
the pen picked is a red pen.
Solution:
Let 𝐴 be the event that a red pen is picked.

𝑛 𝐴 = 15 𝑛 𝐴 15 3
𝑃 𝐴 = = =
𝑛 𝑆 = 25 + 15 = 40 𝑛 𝑆 40 8
3
Therefore, the probability that a red pen is picked is 8.
 EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS
A set of events that contains all the possible outcomes of an
experiment is said to be exhaustive.
In the special case of event 𝐴 and its complement, not 𝐴, the sum
of their probabilities is 1 because one of them is certain to occur.
𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝐴 = 1
or
𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐴′ = 1
Example
The example od complementary exhaustive events are shown in
the following table.
Experiment Exhaustive events Probabilities

𝑨 𝑨′

Toss a fair coin heads tails 1 1

+ =1
2 2
Roll a fair die Less than 2 2 or more 1 5
+ =1
6 6
 TRIALS AND EXPECTATION
Each repeat of an experiment is called a trial.
The proportion of trials in which an event occurs is its relative
frequency, and we can use this as an estimate of the probability
that the event occurs.
If we know the probability of an event occurring, we can estimate
the number of times it is likely to occur in a series of trials. This is a
statement of our expectation.
In 𝑛 trials, event 𝐴 is expected to occur:

𝒏 × 𝑷(𝑨)
Example
The probability of rain on any particular day in a mountain
villages is 0.2. On how many days is rain not expected in a year
of 365 days?
Answer:
𝑛 = 365
𝑃 𝑑𝑜𝑒𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛 = 1 − 0.2 = 0.8
365 × 0.8 = 292 days
 Example
A fair dice is rolled. Find the probability of
getting:
a. A prime number
b. A number that is less than 5
 Example
The numbers 2, 3, 5, and 8 are written on four cards
and these are placed on a table. Two of these cards are
selected at random to form a two-digit number. List the
sample space and hence find the probability that the
number formed is:
a. Odd c. Prime
b. Divisible by 7 d. Not prime
 Example
A two-digit number is formed using the digits 2, 3, and 5.
Repetition of digits is allowed.
a. List the sample space.
b. Find the probability that the two-digit number formed:
i) is prime ii) contains the digit ‘2’
iii) is divisible by 4 iv) is divisible by 13
v) is not divisible by 13
 Example
There are 3 blue balls and 1 red ball in a bag. The
balls are identical except for their colour. A ball is
drawn at random from the bag. Find the probability
that the ball drawn is blue.
 Example
A teacher randomly selects one student from a
group of 12 boys and 24 girls. Find the probability
that the teacher selects:
a. A particular boy
b. A girl
 Example
United’s manager estimates that the team has a
65% chance of winning any particular game and an
85% chance of not drawing any particular game. If
the team plays 40 games this season, find the
manager’s expectation of the number of games the
team will lose.
02
COMBINED EVENTS AND
POSSIBILITY AND TREE
DIAGRAMS
 POSSIBILITY DIAGRAMS
A possibility diagram is used when each outcome of the
sample space has two components.
The following is a possibility diagram to represent the
sample space for rolling two fair dice.
1st die
1 2 3 4 5 6

1 (1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (6,1)

2nd die 2 (1,2) (2,2) (3,2) (4,2) (5,2) (6,2)

3 (1,3) (2,3) (3,3) (4,3) (5,3) (6,3)

4 (1,4) (2,4) (3,4) (4,4) (5,4) (6,4)

5 (1,5) (2,5) (3,5) (4,5) (5,5) (6,5)

6 (1,6) (2,6) (3,6) (4,6) (5,6) (6,6)

Example
Two fair dice are rolled. Find the
probability that the sum of the
numbers shown on the dice is
a. Equal to 5
b. Even
Solution:
4 1
a. P(sum is equal to 5) = 36 = 9
18 1
b. P(sum is even) = 36 = 2
TREE DIAGRAMS
Example
Three fair coins are tossed. Find the
probability that:
a. There are two heads and one tail
b. There is at least one tail
Answer:
3
a. 𝑃=8
1 7
b. 𝑃 = 1 − 𝑃 𝑛𝑜 𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙 = 1 − 8 = 8
 Example
A fair tetrahedral die (4-sided die) and a fair 6-sided die are rolled
simultaneously. The numbers on the tetrahedral die are 1, 2, 5, and
6 while the numbers on the 6-sided die are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. Using
the possibility diagram, find the probability that:
a. Both dice show the same number
b. The number shown on the tetrahedral die is greater than the
number shown on the 6-sided die
c. The numbers shown on both dice are prime numbers
 Example
A bag contains five cards and the cards are numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, and
5. A card is drawn at random the bag and its number is noted. The
card is then replaced and a second card is drawn at random from
the bag. Find the probability that:
a. The number shown on the second card is greater than the
number shown on the first card.
b. The sum of the two numbers shown is greater than 7.
c. The product of the two numbers shown is greater than 10.
 Example
Box A contains 4 pieces of paper numbered 1, 2, 3, and 4.
Box B contains 2 pieces of paper numbered 1 and 2. one
piece of paper is removed at random from each box.
a. At least one ‘1’ is obtained
b. The sum of two numbers is 3
c. The product of the two numbers is at least 4
d. The sum is equal to the product
 03
ADDITIONAL LAW AND
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
EVENTS
 MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

Mutually exclusive events are the events that

cannot occur or happen at the same time. In
other words, the probability of the events
happening at the same time is zero.
To find the probability that event A or event B occurs, we can simply
add the probabilities of the two events together, but only if A and B
are mutually exclusive. The addition law of probability states that

𝑷 𝑨 𝒐𝒓 𝑩 or 𝑷 𝑨 ∪ 𝑩 = 𝑷 𝑨 + 𝑷(𝑩)
Example
A card is drawn at random from a
standard pack of 52 playing cards.
Find the probability that the card is
a. An Ace or a King
b. A heart or a diamond
c. Neither a King nor a Queen
𝑃 𝐴𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑟 𝐾𝑖𝑛𝑔 = 𝑃 𝐴𝑐𝑒 + 𝑃 𝐾𝑖𝑛𝑔
Answer
4 4 8 2
= 52 + 52 = 52 = 13

𝑃 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡 𝑜𝑟 𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑑 = 𝑃 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡 + 𝑃(𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑑)

13 13 26 1
= 52 + 52 = 52 = 2

𝑃 𝐾𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑜𝑟 𝑄𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛 = 𝑃 𝐾𝑖𝑛𝑔 + 𝑃(𝑄𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛)

4 4 2
= 52 + 52 = 13

𝑃(neither King nor Queen) = 1 − 𝑃 𝐾𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑜𝑟 𝑄𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛

2 11
= 1 − 13 = 13
 VENN DIAGRAM
The following Venn diagrams illustrate various sets and their
complements.
Example
One digit is randomly selected from 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9. Three
possible events are:
𝐴: a multiple of 3 is selected
𝐵: a factor of 8 is selected
𝐶: a prime number is selected
a. Show that the only pair of mutually exclusive events from 𝐴, 𝐵 and 𝐶 is
𝐴 and 𝐵, and find 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵).
b. Find:
i) 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐶
ii) 𝑃 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶
𝜉 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9}
Answer
3
𝐴 = {3, 6, 9}, so 𝑃 𝐴 = 9
4
𝐵 = {1, 2, 4, 8}, so 𝑃 𝐵 =
9
4
𝐶 = {2, 3, 5, 7}, so 𝑃 𝐶 = 9
 Answer

𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = ∅, so 𝐴 and 𝐵 are mutually exclusive.

𝐴 ∩ 𝐶 ≠ ∅, so 𝐴 and 𝐶 are not mutually exclusive.
𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 ≠ ∅, so 𝐵 and 𝐶 are not mutually exclusive.
𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵)
=𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵
3 4 7
=9+9=9
 Answer
𝑛 𝐴∪𝐶 = 𝑛 𝐴 +𝑛 𝐶 −𝑛 𝐴∩𝐶 =3+4−1=6
3 4 1 6 2
𝑃 𝐴∪𝐶 =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐶 −𝑃 𝐴∩𝐶 = + − = =
9 9 9 9 3

𝑛 𝐵∪𝐶 =𝑛 𝐵 +𝑛 𝐶 −𝑛 𝐵∩𝐶 =4+4−1=7

4 4 1 7
𝑃 𝐵∪𝐶 =𝑃 𝐵 +𝑃 𝐶 −𝑃 𝐵∩𝐶 = + − =
9 9 9 9
For any two events A and B:

𝒏 𝑨∪𝑩 =𝒏 𝑨 +𝒏 𝑩 −𝒏 𝑨∩𝑩
and
𝐏 𝑨∪𝑩 =𝑷 𝑨 +𝑷 𝑩 −𝑷 𝑨∩𝑩
Example
Forty children were each asked which fruits
they like from apples (A), bananas (B) and
cherries (C). The following Venn diagram shows
the number of children that like each type of
fruit. Find the probability that a randomly
selected child likes apples or bananas.
 Answer

𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 −𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
17 8 4 21
= + − =
40 40 40 40
 Example
A card is drawn at random from a standard pack of 52 playing
cards. Find the probability of drawing
a. A picture card or an Ace
b. An Ace or a card bearing a number which is divisible by 3
c. A King or a Queen
d. Neither a Jack nor an Ace
 Example
The probabilities of three teams, L, M, and N winning a
1 1 1
football competition are , , and respectively. Assuming
4 8 10

only one team can win, calculate the probability that

a. Either L or M wins
b. Neither L nor N wins
04
MULTIPLICATION LAW AND
INDEPENDENT EVENTS
There are 3 blue balls and 2 red balls in a bag.
The balls are identical except for their colour.
A ball is drawn at random from the bag and is
replaced. A second ball is then drawn at
random from the bag.
The following figure shows the use of a simplified tree diagram to
represent the sample space for the experiment, where B
represents ‘blue’ and R represents ‘red.
The following figure shows how we could use the possibility diagram and the tree
diagram to find 𝑃(𝐵𝑅). From the figure, we can multiply along the connected
branches of a probability tree to find the answer.
 EXAMPLE
There are 7 green marbles and 3 yellow marbles in a bag.
The marbles are identical except for their colour. A marble is
drawn at random from the bag, and is replaced. A second
marble is then drawn at random from the bag. Find the
probability that
a. The first marble drawn is yellow
b. The second marble drawn is yellow given that the first
marble drawn is green
c. The first marble drawn is green and the second marble
drawn is yellow
d. The second marble drawn is yellow
 INDEPENDENT EVENTS
The events are said to be independent if
either can occur without being affected
by the occurrence of the other.
Examples: making selections with
replacement or rolling two dice.
 The multiplication law for independent events is

𝑷 𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩 𝒐𝒓 𝑷 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 = 𝑷(𝑨) × 𝑷(𝑩)

 EXAMPLE
In a group of 60 students, 27 are male (M) and 20 study History (H).
The Venn diagram shows the numbers of students in these and
other categories. One student is selected at random from the
group. Show that the events ‘a male is selected’ and ‘a student who
studies History is selected’ are independent.
To answer the question, you have to answer the
following question:
Does 𝑃 𝑀 × 𝑃 𝐻 = 𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝐻)? If the multiplication law
holds for the events M and H, then they are
independent.
 27 20
𝑃 𝑀 = 𝑃 𝐻 =
60 60

9
𝑃 𝑀∩𝐻 =
60

27 20 9
𝑃 𝑀 ×𝑃 𝐻 = × = =𝑃 𝑀∩𝐻
60 60 60

The multiplication law holds for events M and H,

therefore they are independent. Q.E.D.
 EXAMPLE
There are 25 boys and 15 girls in a class. 12 of the boys
and 5 of the girls wear spectacles. A class monitor and
a class monitress are selected at random from the 25
boys and the 15 girls respectively. What is the
probability that both the class monitor and monitress
wear spectacles?
 12
P(monitor wears spectacles) =
25
5 1
P(monitress wears spectacles) = =
15 3

Since the selections of the monitor and the monitress

are independent,
12 1 4
P(monitor and monitress wear spectacle) = × =
25 3 25
 DEPENDENT EVENTS
Out of 33 students in a class, 21 study Geography and 12 study
History. No student studies both subjects. Two students are
picked at random from the class. Find the probability that
a. The first student studies History and the second student
studies Geography.
b. One student studies History while the other student studies
Geography.
 4 21 21
a. P 𝐻𝐺 = × =
11 32 88

b. P 𝐻 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐺 = 𝑃 𝐻𝐺 + 𝑃𝐺𝐻
4 21 7 3
= × + ×
11 32 11 8

21 21
= +
88 88

21
=
44
 EXAMPLE
A bag contains 8 red balls, 7 blue balls, and 1 white ball. Two
balls are drawn rom the bag at random, one after another,
without replacement. Find the probability that
a. The first ball is red and the second ball is blue
b. One ball is red while the other ball is blue
c. The two balls are of the same colour
THANK YOU