Probability

Why study probability

Inferential statistics is the attempt to apply the

conclusions that have been obtained from one
experimental study to more general populations.

The term probability refers to the likelihood of an event

occurring.

It is the study of randomness and uncertainty.

How is probability described

The probability of an event can be described with the

following terms:

• Certain – the event is definitely going to happen

• Likely – the event will probably happen, but not definitely
• Unlikely – the event will probably not happen, but it might
• Impossible – the event is definitely not going to happen.
Probability Line:

Probability is always between 0 and 1

 Random Experiment is a process whose outcome is uncertain

Examples:

✓ Tossing a coin once ✓ Picking a card or ✓ Making bolts in a

or several times cards from a deck machine
A probability model consists of the sample space and the way to
assign probabilities.

Sample Space
A set S that consists of all possible outcomes of a random
experiment is called a sample space, and each outcome is
called a sample point.

Example 1:
✓ Tossing a coin
𝑆 = {𝐻, 𝑇}
Example 2: Example 3:

✓ Tossing a die ✓ Tossing a coin twice

𝑆1 = 1,2,3,4,5,6 H
𝑆2 = {𝑜𝑑𝑑, 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛} H
T
Tossing
a coin 2x
H
T
T

𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇}

Example 4:

✓ Tossing a coin three times

S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, TTH, THT, TTT}.

Example 5: Rolling a fair die twice and observing the dots facing up
on each roll. What is the sample space?

There are 36 possible outcomes in the sample space S, where:

(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6),
(2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6),
(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6),
S=
(4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6),
(5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6),
(6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6)
Event
An event is a subset of the sample space S. It is a set of possible
outcomes.
An event consisting of a single point of S is often called a
simple or elementary event.
From Example 5:
(a) “the sum of the dots is 6”
𝐸1 = {(1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1)}

(b) “the result of the 1st roll is the same as the 2nd”
𝐸2 = {(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (6, 6)}
Example:
Referring to the experiment of tossing a coin twice.
Let A be the event “at least one head occurs” and
let B be the event “the 2nd toss results in a tail”

The sample space S, S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}

Then: A = {HT, TH, HH}

B = {HT, TT}
Example:

Experiment: Toss a coin 3 times

Sample Space:
S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}

Some events:
A = {at least two heads will occur}
A = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH}

B = {exactly two tails will occur}

B = {HTT, THT, TTH}
Try this!
Suppose there are three chips marked as follows
SIDE 1 SIDE 2
CHIP 1 O X
CHIP 2 X Y
CHIP 3 Y O

Then the three chips are thrown simultaneously.

How many possible outcomes are there?

S = {OXY, OXO, OYY, OYO, XXY, XXO, XYY, XYO}

There are three basic interpretations of probability:

1. Classical probability
2. Empirical or relative frequency probability
3. Subjective probability
Classical Probability

Classical probability uses sample spaces to determine the

numerical probability that an event will happen.

Classical probability assumes that all outcomes in the

sample space are equally likely to occur.

Equally likely events are events that have the same

probability of occurring.
If an event can occur in ways out of n possible equally likely
ways, then the probability of that event is

𝒎
𝑷 𝑬 =
𝒏

where m is the cardinal number of the event and

n is the cardinal number of the sample space
Example 1: For a card drawn from an ordinary deck, find the
probability of getting a queen

Solution: Since there are 52 cards in a deck and there

are 4 queens
4 𝟏
P Queen = = = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟕𝟔𝟗
52 𝟏𝟑
Example 2: Three chips are thrown simultaneously. SIDE 1 SIDE 2
CHIP 1 O X
S = {OXY, OXO, OYY, OYO, XXY, XXO, XYY, XYO} CHIP 2 X Y
CHIP 3 Y O
(a) Let A = {OYY, XYY, OXY, OYO, XXY, XYO}
What is P(A)?
6 3
𝑃 𝐴 = = = 0.75
8 4

(b ) Let B be the event “at most 1 X”

Find P(B)?
B = {OXY, OXO, XYY, XYO,OYY, OYO}
6 3
𝑃 𝐵 = = = 0.75
8 4
S = {OXY, OXO, OYY, OYO, XXY, XXO, XYY, XYO}

(c ) Let C be the event “exactly one O”

Find P(C)?
C = {OXY, OYY, XXO, XYO}
4 1
𝑃 𝐶 = = = 0.5
8 2
(d ) Let D be the event “the three letters are the same”
Find P(D)?
D=∅
0
𝑃 𝐷 = =0
8
Try this!

Example 3: Find the probability of drawing a face card from a

standard deck of cards.
12 3
𝑃 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 = = = 0.23
52 13

Example 4: One coupon will be drawn out of 500 received for a

ticket to a concert. You mailed 30 coupons. What are your
chances of your ticket to be drawn if all of your coupons were
received?
30 3
𝑃 𝑇 = = = 0.06
500 50
Complementary Events
The complement of an event E is the set of outcomes in the
sample space that are not included in the outcomes of event E.

The complement of E is denoted by E’ or 𝑬𝑪

Example: When a die is rolled, the sample space

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

If E is the event of getting an odd numbers, then

E = {1, 3, 5}

And the event of NOT getting an odd number is

E’ = {2, 4, 6}
Example:

Suppose there are 25 pens in a box. 7 are red, 10 are black,

and 8 are blue. If you pick one pen from the box, find the
probability of getting:

10 2 15 3
a) P(black) = = d) P(not black) = =
25 5 25 5
7 18
b) P(red) = e) P(not red) =
25 25
8 17
c) P(blue) = f) P(not blue) =
25 25
Probability Rule #1
The probability of any event E is a number (either a fraction or decimal)
between and including 0 and 1. This is denoted by 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐸) ≤ 1.

Probability Rule #2
If an event E cannot occur (i.e., the event contains no members in the
sample space), its probability is 0.
Probability Rule #3
If an event E is certain, then the probability of E is 1.
Probability Rule #4
The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in the sample space is 1..
 Rule for Complementary Events

𝑃 𝐸 ′ = 1 − 𝑃 𝐸 𝑜𝑟 𝑃(𝐸) = 1 − 𝑃 𝐸 ′ 𝑜𝑟 𝑃 𝐸 + 𝑃 𝐸 ′ = 1

Example: If the probability that a child likes vegetable is 2/5, find

the probability that a child does not like vegetables.

Solution: P does not like veg = 1 − P(child likes veg)

2
=1−
5
𝟑
P does not like veg =
𝟓
S itself is the sure or certain event since an element of S must
occur.

The empty set 𝝓, is called the impossible event because an

element of 𝝓 cannot occur.

By using set operations on events in S, we can obtain other

events in S.
Empirical Probability
Empirical probability relies on actual experience to
determine the likelihood of outcomes.

Given a frequency distribution, the probability of an

event being in a given class is:

𝒇
𝑷 𝑬 =
𝒏
Example:
A researcher asked 25 people if they liked the taste of a new soft
drink. The responses were classified as “yes,” “no,” or “undecided.”
The results were categorized in a frequency distribution, as shown

Response Frequency Find the probability that a

Yes 15 person responded no.
No 8
8
Undecided 2 𝑃 𝑁𝑜 = = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟐
25
Total: 25
Example:
Hospital records indicated that maternity patients stayed in the
hospital for the number of days shown in the distribution.

Number of Frequency Find these probabilities:

days stayed
(a) A patient stayed
3 15
exactly 5 days
4 32 (b) A patient stayed less
5 56 than 6 days
6 19 (c) A patient stayed at
most 4 days
7 5
(d) A patient stayed at
Total: 127 least 5 days
Solution:
Number of Frequency (a) A patient stayed exactly 5 days
days stayed 56
𝑃 5 = = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟒𝟎𝟗
3 15 127
4 32
5 56 (b) A patient stayed less than 6 days
6 19 15 + 32 + 56
7 5 𝑃 𝑙𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 6 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠 =
127
Total: 127
103
= = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟏𝟏𝟎
127
Solution: (c) A patient stayed at most 4 days
Number of Frequency 15 + 32
days stayed 𝑃 𝑎𝑡 𝑚𝑜𝑠𝑡 4 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠 =
127
3 15 47
= = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟕
4 32 127
5 56
6 19 (d) A patient stayed at least 5 days
7 5 56 + 19 + 5
𝑃 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑡 5 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠 =
Total: 127 127
80
= = 𝟎. 𝟔𝟐𝟗𝟗
127
Subjective Probability
Subjective probability uses a probability value based on an educated
guess or estimate, employing opinions and inexact information.

Example:

✓ A sportswriter may say that there is a 70% probability that the

Basketball Team A will win in the next season.

✓ A physician might say that, on the basis of her diagnosis, there is a

30% chance the patient will need an operation

✓ A seismologist might say there is an 80% probability that an

earthquake will occur in a certain area
Basic Concepts (Set Theory)
If A and B are events in S, then:

▪ The union of A and B is the event “either A or B or both” → 𝑨 ∪ 𝑩

▪ The intersection of A and B is the event “ both A and B” →𝑨⋂𝑩
▪ The complement of A is the event “not A” → A’
▪ A – B is the event “A but not B”
Set Operations
Experiment: Tossing a coin twice.
Given events: A = {HT, TH, HH}
B = {HT, TT}

𝑨 ⋃ 𝑩 = {HT, TH, HH, TT}

𝑨 ⋂ 𝑩 = {HT}
𝑨’ = {TT}
𝑨 – 𝑩 = {TH, HH]
Mutually Exclusive Events:
Mutually exclusive events are those events which do not have any
common outcome. These events do not have an intersection and is
characterized by the word “OR”.
Two events are mutually exclusive events if they cannot occur at
the same time

Examples:
When a single die is rolled,
(a) getting an odd number and getting an even number

(b) Getting a number greater than 4 and getting a number

less than 4
Example:

Determine which events are mutually exclusive and

which are not, when a single card is drawn from a deck.

a. Getting a 7 and getting a jack

b. Getting a club and getting a king
c. Getting a face card and getting an ace
d. Getting a face card and getting a spade
Example:
A random experiment where we draw a card from a standard deck
of card, getting an ace as event A and drawing a king as event B.

Since there are no

A♦ K♦
common sample
A♠ A♣ K♠ K♣ point, therefore the
A♥ K♥ two sets are mutually
exclusive
Aces Kings
Addition Rule
The probability of two or more events can be determined by the
addition rules.

Addition Rule #1
The probability of k mutually exclusive events to occur is the sum
of the probability of individual events. That is,

If 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , 𝐴3 , … , 𝐴𝑘 are mutually exclusive events, then

𝑷 𝑨𝟏 ∪ 𝑨𝟐 ∪ 𝑨𝟑 ∪ ⋯ ∪ 𝑨𝒌 = 𝐏 𝑨𝟏 + 𝐏 𝑨𝟐 + 𝐏 𝑨𝟑 +…+ 𝐏 𝑨𝒌
𝑃 𝐴1 𝑜𝑟𝐴2 𝑜𝑟𝐴3 𝑜𝑟 … 𝑜𝑟𝐴𝑘 = P 𝐴1 + P 𝐴2 + P 𝐴3 +…+ P 𝐴𝑘
Example:

What is the probability of getting a head or a tail in a single toss

of a coin?
1
Let 𝐴1 be the event of getting head: P(𝐴1 ) =
2
1
Let 𝐴2 be the event of getting tail: P(𝐴2 ) =
2

𝑃 𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 = 𝑃 𝐴1 + 𝑃 𝐴2
1 1
𝑃(𝐻 𝑜𝑟 𝑇) = + = 𝟏
2 2
Example:

One card is drawn from a deck of 52 cards. What is the probability

of getting an ace or a queen?
4
Let 𝑎𝑐𝑒 be the event of getting 𝑎𝑐𝑒 from the deck: P(𝑎𝑐𝑒) =
52
4
Let 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛 be the event of getting 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛 from the deck: P(𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛) =
52
P(𝑎𝑐𝑒 or 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛) = P(𝑎𝑐𝑒 ∪ 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛)
= P(𝑎𝑐𝑒) + P(𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛)
4 4
= +
52 52
8 𝟐
P(𝑎𝑐𝑒 or 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛) = = = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟓𝟑𝟖
52 𝟏𝟑
Example:

What is the probability of getting at least one head in tossing

a coin twice or getting a “5” in casting a die once.

Let 𝐶 be the event of getting a head from tossing a coin 2x :

3
P(𝐶) =
4

Let 𝐷 be the event of getting a “5” from casting a die once:

1
P(𝐷) =
6
3 1
P(𝐶 𝑜𝑟 𝐷) = P(𝐶 ∪ 𝐷)= +
4 6
𝟏𝟏
P(𝐶 𝑜𝑟 𝐷) =
𝟏𝟐
Example:

Find the probability of getting “4” or “5” as the sum results in casting a
pair of dice.

(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6), P(4 𝑜𝑟 5) = P(4 ∪ 5)
(2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6),
(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6), = 𝑃 4 + 𝑃(5)
S=
(4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6), = +
3 4
36 36
(5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6),
𝟕
(6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6) P(4 𝑜𝑟 5) =
𝟑𝟔

3
Let "4" be the event of getting a sum of 4: P(4) =
36
4
Let "5" be the event of getting a sum of 5: P(5) =
36
Non-Mutually Exclusive Events:
Non-mutually exclusive events are events that have at least one
common element or point of intersection.

Example:
4♥
In a random experiment 3♥ J♥
wherein we draw a card 2♥ K♦
5♥ 6♥
from a standard deck of A♥
7♥ Q♥
K♥ K♣
cards, we have drawing a
heart as Event A and 8♥ K♠
9♥ 10♥
drawing a king as event B.

Event A Event B
Addition Rule #2
The probability of non mutually exclusive events can be found
using the formula

𝑷 𝑨∪𝑩 =𝐏 𝑨 +𝐏 𝑩 −𝐏 𝑨∩𝑩

𝑃 𝐴𝑜𝑟𝐵 = P 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵

where A and B are non-mutually exclusive events.

Example:

What is the probability of drawing heart (H) or a king (K) from

a standard deck of cards?

13 P(𝐻 𝑜𝑟 𝐾) = P(𝐻 ∪ 𝐾)
P H =
52
=P 𝐻 +P 𝐾 −P 𝐻∩𝐾
4
P K = 13 4 1
52 = + −
52 52 52
1
P(𝐻 ∩ 𝐾) = 16 𝟒
52 P(𝐻 𝑜𝑟 𝐾) = =
52 𝟏𝟑
Example:

Find the probability of turning up an odd number or a number

greater than 3 when rolling a die?

3
P O = P(𝑂 𝑜𝑟𝐺) = P(𝑂 ∪ 𝐺)
6
= P 𝑂 + P(𝐺) − P 𝑂 ∩ 𝐺
3
P G = 3 3 1
6 = + −
6 6 6
1
P(𝑂 ∩ G) = 𝟓
6 P(𝐻 𝑜𝑟 𝐾) =
𝟔
Example:

One card is selected from a standard deck of 52 playing cards.

What is the probability that the card is either a spade or face card?

13
P S = P(𝑆 𝑜𝑟 𝐹) = P(S ∪ 𝐹)
52
= P 𝑆 + P(𝐹) − P 𝑆 ∩ 𝐹
12
P F = 13 12 3
52 = + −
52 52 52
3
P(𝑆 ∩ F) = 22 𝟏𝟏
52 P 𝑆 𝑜𝑟 𝐹 = =
52 𝟐𝟔
Multiplication Rule
The multiplication rules can be used to find the probability of two or
more events that occur in sequence.

Examples:
✓ One can find the probability of getting a head and a 4 if a coin is
tossed and then a die is rolled.
✓ Rolling a die and getting a 6, and then rolling a second and getting a 3
✓ Drawing a card from a deck and getting a queen, replacing it, and
drawing a second card and getting a queen.
✓ Drawing a card from a deck and getting a queen and drawing a
second card and getting a queen without replacing the first card.
Two events A and B are independent events if the fact that A occurs
does not affect the probability of B occurring.

Examples:
✓ One can find the probability of getting a head and a 4 if a coin is
tossed and then a die is rolled.
✓ Rolling a die and getting a 6, and then rolling a second and getting a 3
✓ Drawing a card from a deck and getting a queen, replacing it, and
drawing a second card and getting a queen.
To find the probability of two independent events that occur in
sequence, one must find the probability of each event occurring
separately and then multiply the answers.

Multiplication Rule #1
When two events are independent, the probability of both
occurring is
𝑷 𝑨∩𝑩 =𝐏 𝑨 ⋅𝐏 𝑩

𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = P 𝐴 ⋅ 𝑃 𝐵
Example:

Two cards are drawn from a deck of 52 cards. Find the probability
that two queens will be drawn if the first card is returned to the
deck and the deck is reshuffled before the second card is drawn
4
Let 𝑄1 be the event of getting the 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛 on 1st draw: P(𝑄1 ) =
52
4
Let 𝑄2 be the event of getting the 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛 on 2nd draw: P(𝑄2 ) =
52

𝑃 𝑄1 and𝑄2 = P 𝑄1 P 𝑄2
4 4 16 𝟏
𝑃 𝑄1 ∩ 𝑄2 = ∙ = =
52 52 2704 𝟏𝟔𝟗
Example:

A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability of getting

a head on the coin and a 4 on the die.

1
𝑃 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑 = 𝑃 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 4 = P 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑 P 4
2
1 1 𝟏
1 𝑃 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑 ∩ 4 = ⋅ =
𝑃(4) = 2 6 𝟏𝟐
6
Example:

A box contains 4 red marbles, 3 green marbles and 2 blue marbles.

One marble is removed from the box and then replaced. Another
marble is drawn from the box. What is the probability that the first
marble is blue and the second marble is green?

2 3 1
𝑃 𝐵 = ; 𝑃 𝐺 = =
9 9 3
2 1
𝑃 𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐺 = ∙
9 3
𝟐
𝑃 𝐵 ∩ 𝐺 =
𝟐𝟕
Example:

A poll found that 46% of employees say they suffer great stress at
least once a week. If three people are selected at random, find the
probability that all three will say that they suffer great stress at least
once a week.

Let 𝑃(𝑆) be the probability of suffering stress

𝑃 𝑆 = 0.46

𝑃 𝑆 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑆 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑆 = 𝑃 𝑆 ⋅ 𝑃 𝑆 ⋅ 𝑃 𝑆
𝑃 𝑆 ∩ 𝑆 ∩ 𝑆 = (0.46)(0.46)(0.46) = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟗𝟕
Example:

A poll finds that 72% of Barangay X consider themselves basketball

fans. If you randomly pick two people from the population,

(a) what is the probability the first person is a basketball fan and
the second is as well?
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) · 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.72 0.72 = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟏𝟖𝟒

(b) That the first one is and the second one isn’t?
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) · 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.72 (0.28) = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟎𝟏𝟔
When the outcome or occurrence of the first event affects the
outcome or occurrence of the second event in such a way that the
probability is changed, the events are said to be dependent events.

Examples:
✓ Drawing a card from a deck, not replacing it, and then drawing a
second card
✓ Getting a ball from an box, not replacing it, and then selecting a
second ball.
✓ Having high grades and getting a scholarship.
✓ Parking in a no-parking zone and getting a parking ticket.
To find probabilities when events are dependent, use the
multiplication rule with a modification in notation.

Multiplication Rule #2
When two events are dependent, the probability of both
occurring is
𝑷 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 = 𝐏 𝑨 ⋅ 𝐏 𝑩|𝑨

𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = P 𝐴 ⋅ 𝑃 𝐵|𝐴
Example: Find the probability of getting an ace on the 1st
draw and a king on the 2nd draw
4 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐾 = 𝑃(𝐴) ⋅ 𝑃(𝐾|𝐴)
𝑃 𝐴 =
52 4 4
4 𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐾 = ⋅
𝑃 𝐾|𝐴 = 52 51
51 16 𝟒
𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐾 = =
2652 𝟔𝟔𝟑
Example:

A box contains 4 red marbles, 3 green marbles and 2 blue marbles.

One marble is removed from the box and it is not replaced. Another
marble is drawn from the box. What is the probability that the first
marble is blue and the second marble is green?
2 3
𝑃 𝐵 = ; 𝑃 𝐺|𝐵 =
9 8
2 3 6
𝑃 𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐺 = ∙ =
9 8 72
𝟏
𝑃 𝐵 ∩ 𝐺 =
𝟏𝟐
Example: A person owns a collection of 30 CDs, of which 5 are
OPM music. If 2 CDs are selected at random, find the
probability that both are OPM music.
5 4
𝑃 𝐶1 = ; 𝑃 𝐶2 |𝐶1 =
30 29
5 4 20
𝑃 𝐶1 𝑎𝑛𝑑𝐶2 = ∙ =
30 29 870
𝟐
𝑃 𝐶1 ∩ 𝐶2 =
𝟖𝟕
Example:

The Insurance Company found that 53% of the residents of a

subdivision had homeowner’s insurance (H) with the company. Of
these clients, 27% also had automobile insurance (A) with the
company. If a resident is selected at random, find the probability that
the resident has both homeowner’s and automobile insurance with
the World Wide Insurance Company.
𝑃 𝐻 = 0.53 𝑃 𝐴|𝐻 = 0.27

𝑃 𝐻 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐻 ⋅ 𝑃 𝐴|𝐻

𝑃 𝐻 ∩ 𝐴 = (0.53)(0.27)

𝑃 𝐻 ∩ 𝐴 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟒𝟑𝟏
Example:
Three cards are drawn from an ordinary deck and not replaced.
Find the probability of these.

(a) Getting 3 jacks

4 3 2 24
𝑃 𝐽1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐽2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐽3 = ∙ ⋅ =
52 51 50 132,600
𝟏
𝑃 𝐽1 ∩ 𝐽2 ∩ 𝐽3 =
𝟓, 𝟓𝟐𝟓
(b) Getting an ace, a king, and a queen in order
4 4 4 64
𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐾 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑄 = ∙ ⋅ =
52 51 50 132,600
𝟖
𝑃 𝐴 ∩𝐾∩𝑄 =
𝟏𝟔, 𝟓𝟕𝟓
(c) Getting a club, a spade, and a heart in order

13 13 13 2197
𝑃 ♣ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ♠ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ♡ = ∙ ⋅ =
52 51 50 132,600
𝟏𝟔𝟗
𝑃 ♣ ∩♠∩♡ =
𝟏𝟎, 𝟐𝟎𝟎

(d) Getting 3 clubs

13 12 11 1716
𝑃 ♣ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ♣ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ♣ = ∙ ⋅ =
52 51 50 132,600
𝟏𝟏
𝑃 ♣ ∩♠∩♡ =
𝟖𝟓𝟎
Conditional Probability
The conditional probability of an event B in relationship to an event A is
the probability that event B occurs after event A has already occurred.
The notation for conditional probability is P(B|A).
Formula for Conditional Probability
When two events are dependent, the probability of both
occurring is
𝑷 𝑨∩𝑩
𝐏 𝑩|𝑨 =
𝐏 𝑨

𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵
𝑃 𝐵|𝐴 =
P 𝐴
Example:

A fair die is rolled. Find the probability that the number rolled is a
five, given that it is odd.

1 P(5 ∩ O)
P 5 = P 5|O =
6 𝑃(𝑂)

3 1/6
P O = =
6 3/6

1 𝟏
P(5 ∩ O) = P 5|O =
6 𝟑
Example:

A fair die is rolled. Find the probability that the number rolled is
an odd, given that it is a five.

3 P(5 ∩ O)
P O = P O|5 =
6 𝑃(5)
1 1/6
P 5 = =
6 1/6

1 P O|5 = 𝟏
P(5 ∩ O) =
6
Example:
In a sample of 902 individuals under 40 who were or had previously
been married, each person was classified according to gender and
age at first marriage. The results are summarized in the following
two-way classification table, where the meaning of the labels is:

•M: male
•F: female E W H Total
•E: a teenager when
first married M 43 293 114 450
•W: in one’s twenties
F 82 299 71 452
when first married
•H: in one’s thirties Total 125 592 185 902
when first married
Example:
(a) Find the probability that the individual selected was a teenager
at first marriage.

125
𝑃 𝐸 = = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟑𝟖𝟓𝟗 = 𝟏𝟑. 𝟖𝟓𝟗%
902
Example:
(b) Find the probability that the individual selected was a teenager
at first marriage, given that the person is male

𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝑀)
𝑃 𝐸|𝑀 =
𝑃(𝑀)
43/902
=
450/902
43
=
450

𝑃 𝐸|𝑀 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟗𝟔 = 𝟗. 𝟔%
Example:
Suppose that in an adult population the proportion of people who are both
overweight and suffer hypertension is 0.09; the proportion of people who are
not overweight but suffer hypertension is 0.11; the proportion of people who
are overweight but do not suffer hypertension is 0.02; and the proportion of
people who are neither overweight nor suffer hypertension is 0.78. An adult is
randomly selected from this population.

(a) Find the probability that the person selected suffers hypertension given that
he is overweight.

(b) Find the probability that the selected person suffers hypertension given that
he is not overweight.

(c) Compare the two probabilities just found to give an answer to the question as
to whether overweight people tend to suffer from hypertension.
Suppose that in an adult population the proportion of people who are
both overweight and suffer hypertension is 0.09; the proportion of
people who are not overweight but suffer hypertension is 0.11; the
proportion of people who are overweight but do not suffer
hypertension is 0.02; and the proportion of people who are neither
overweight nor suffer hypertension is 0.78. An adult is randomly
selected from this population.

O O’ Total
H 0.09 0.11 0.20
H’ 0.02 0.78 0.80
Total 0.11 0.89 1.00
(a) Find the probability that the person selected suffers
hypertension given that he is overweight.

𝑃(𝐻 ∩ 𝑂) 0.09
𝑃 𝐻|𝑂 = =
𝑃(𝑂) 0.11
𝟗
𝑃(𝐻|𝑂) = = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟏𝟖𝟐
𝟏𝟏
(b) Find the probability that the selected person suffers
hypertension given that he is not overweight.

𝑃(𝐻 ∩ 𝑂′) 0.11

𝑃 𝐻|𝑂′ = =
𝑃(𝑂′) 0.89
𝟏𝟏
𝑃(𝐻|𝑂′) = = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟐𝟑𝟔
𝟖𝟗
(c) Compare the two probabilities just found to give an answer
to the question as to whether overweight people tend to suffer
from hypertension.
𝑃 𝐻 𝑂 = 0.8182 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝐻|𝑂′) = 0.1236
There is a much higher rate of hypertension among people who
are overweight than among people who are not overweight.

Therefore, overweight people tend to suffer from hypertension.

Probabilities for “at least”
The multiplication rules can be used with the complementary event
rule to simplify solving probability problems involving “at least.”

Example:
A game is played by drawing four cards from an ordinary deck and
replacing each card after it is drawn. Find the probability of
winning if at least one ace is drawn.

Let E = at least one ace is drawn

E’ = no ace is drawn
48 48 48 48
𝑃 𝐸′ = ⋅ ⋅ ⋅
52 52 52 52
 ′
20,736
𝑃 𝐸 = = 0.7260
28,561

𝑃 𝐸 = 1 − 𝑃(𝐸 ′ )
20,736
𝑃 𝐸 =1−
28,561
7,825
𝑃 𝐸 =1− = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟕
28,561
Therefore, the probability of winning if at least
1 ace is drawn is 27%
Home Work #4:

Answer the HW by clicking Class works

tab in our google classroom.