BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY

Statistical Experiments – those experiments whose results will not be essentially the same
though condition may be nearly identical.

Characteristics:
1. A listing of all outcomes is possible.
2. Any outcome cannot be predicted with certainty.

 Sample space - the set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment

 Sample point - each outcome in a sample space
 Event - a subset of a sample space
Events can either be:
a. single event – a set containing only one element of the sample space
b. compound event – union of single events

 Null Set - contains no element (empty space)

Remarks:
 two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur simultaneously
 two events are equally likely when they have the same probability of
occurrence

Example 7

1. In a toss of a coin, there are two possible outcomes, a head (H) or a tail (T).
What is the sample space?
𝑆 = {𝐻, 𝑇}
2. What is the sample space for choosing a letter from the word probability?
𝑆 = {𝑃, 𝑅, 𝑂, 𝐵, 𝐴, 𝐼, 𝐿, 𝑇, 𝑌}
3. Consider an experiment of tossing a die (singular form of dice).

a. Determine O , the event that the outcome is an odd number on the top face
𝑂 = {1,3,5}
b. Determine E ,the event that the outcome is an even number on the top face
𝐸 = {2,4,6}
c. Are events O and E mutually exclusive and equally likely?
Yes, they are mutually exclusive and equally likely.

4. Consider an experiment of tossing 2 coins. Determine the following:

 a. Determine the sample space.
𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇}
b. A, the event that at least one head will occur
𝐴 = {𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻}
c. B , the event that at most 2 tails will occur
𝐵 = {𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇}

Classical Definition of Probability

“If an experiment can result in any one of n different equally likely outcomes, and
if exactly m of this ways correspond to event E, then the probability of event E is:

P E  
m number of outcomes in event E

n total number of possible outcomes

Some Properties of Probability

The probability of an event E is the sum of the probabilities of all sample point E.
Therefore, the following properties hold:

1. 0  PE  1 : The probability of an event E is between 0 to 1.

2. P   0 : The probability of an empty set is zero.

3. PS   1 : The sum of the probabilities of all sample points in S is equal to 1.

 
4. PE   P E '  1 , where E and E’ are complementary events. The complement
of an event happening is the exact opposite – the probability of it not
happening.
1
Example: The probability that it will rain today is P(R) = 4

Therefore, the probability that it will NOT rain today is

1 3
P(R)′ = 1 − P(R) = 1 − =
4 4

Example 8

1. A number from 1 to 11 is chosen at random. What is the probability of choosing

an odd number?
 Solution: Since we have 6 odd numbers from 1 to 11, the probability of choosing
an odd number is
6
𝑃 (𝑂 ) =
11

2. From a jar containing 5 red, 6 green and 4 blue marbles, what is the probability
of choosing a:

a.) green marble?

6
𝑃 (𝐺 ) = =
11
5
b.) blue marble?
4
𝑃 (𝐵 ) =
11
5
c.) red marble?
5
𝑃 (𝑅 ) = =
11
5
d.) marble other than blue?
4 7
11
11
𝑃 (𝐵 )′ = 1 − 𝑃 (𝐵 ) = 1 − =
11
5 11 5

3. If we draw a card from a regular deck of 52 playing cards, what is the

probability that it is

a.) a red card?

26 1
𝑃 (𝑅 ) = =
52 2
b.) an ace?
4 1
𝑃 (𝐴 ) = =
52 13
c.) a face card?
12 3
𝑃 (𝐹 ) = =
52 13
d.) a heart?
13 1
𝑃 (𝐻 ) = =
52 4

4. If two dice are tossed, what is the probability that

a.) the sum of the numbers obtained is greater than 10?
𝑆 = {(1,1), (1,2), …,(2,1),(2,2),…,(3,1),(3,2),…,(6,6)}
Solution: 𝐴 = {(5,6), (6,5), (6,6)}
3 1
𝑃 (𝐴 ) = =
36 12
 b.) the sum of the numbers obtained is 4?
𝐵 = {(1,3), (2,2), (3,1)}
3 1
𝑃 (𝐵 ) = =
36 12
c.) the sum of the numbers obtained is 11?
𝐶 = {(5,6), (6,5)}
2 1
𝑃 (𝐶 ) = =
36 18

Complementary Events

The complement of an event E is event E´. It consists of all the events in the sample space
that are not in event E.

1. The probability that a student will pass a Statistics course is 0.80, what is the
probability that the student will not pass the course?
𝑃(𝑃) = 0.80
′
𝑃 (𝑃) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑃) = 1 − 0.80 = 0.20

2. The day’s production consists of 12 cars, 5 of which are defective. If one car is
selected at random, find the probability that it is not defective.
5
Solution: The probability of selecting a defective car is 𝑃(𝐷 ) = 12. Thus, the
probability of selecting a NOT defective car is
5 7
𝑃 (𝐷 )′ = 1 − 𝑃 (𝐷 ) = 1 − =
12 12

Exercises:

1. A coin is tossed three times. List the elements of the sample space S, then find the
probability that
a.) at least 2 heads appear.
b.) at least 3 tails appear.
c.) at most 2 tails appear.

2. What is the probability of getting a “7” after rolling a single die?

3. If two dice are tossed, what is the probability that

a.) you can get a sum of 1 from the numbers obtained?
 b.) the sum of the numbers obtained is 7?
c.) the sum of the numbers obtained is 12?
Multiplication Rule

If in an experiment, events A and B can both occur, then P A  B   P A PB / A,

where PB / A is the conditional probability that B occurs given A.

If A and B are independent, then P A  B   P A PB  .

Remark: Two events A and B are independent if either PB / A  PB or P A / B   P A .
Otherwise, A and B are dependent.

Example

For instance, you have a box containing 5 balls wherein 3 are white and 2 are black.
Now, 2 balls are drawn from the box successively. What is the probability that the first
ball drawn is black and the second ball drawn is white, such that
a. there is a replacement?
2 3 6
𝑃 (𝐵 ∩ 𝑊 ) = × =
5 5 25
b. there is no replacement?
2 3 6 3
𝑃 (𝐵 ∩ 𝑊 ) = × = =
5 4 20 10

Addition Rule

This applies to union of events. If A and B are any two events, then

P( A  B)  P A  PB   P A  B 

where P A  B  is the joint probability that both events will occur simultaneously.

If two events are mutually exclusive, then P A  B   0 . Thus, P( A  B)  P A  PB .

Example 9

1. If we draw one card from a deck of 52 cards, what is the probability that it will be:
a.) an ace or a king?
4 1
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑛 𝑎𝑐𝑒 = =
52 13
 4 1
𝑃(𝐾 ) = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 = =
52 13
1 1 2
𝑃 (𝐴 ∪ 𝐾 ) = 𝑃 (𝐴 ) + 𝑃 (𝐾 ) = + =
13 13 13

b.) a club or a face card?

13 1
𝑃 (𝐶 ) = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑐𝑙𝑢𝑏 = =
52 4
12 3
𝑃 (𝐹 ) = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 = =
52 13
3
𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐹 ) = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑐𝑙𝑢𝑏 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 =
52
1 3 3 11
Thus, 𝑃 (𝐶 ∪ 𝐹 ) = 𝑃 (𝐶 ) + 𝑃 (𝐹 ) − 𝑃 (𝐶 ∩ 𝐹 ) = 4 + 13 − 52 = 26

2
2. The probability that a student passes Mathematics is , and the probability that he
3
4 14
passes English is . If the probability of passing both courses is , what is the
9 45
probability that he will pass at least one course?
2 4 14 4
𝑃 (𝑀 ∪ 𝐸 ) = 𝑃 (𝑀 ) + 𝑃 ( 𝐸 ) − 𝑃 (𝑀 ∩ 𝐸 ) = + − =
3 9 45 5

Exercises:

1. A pair of dice is rolled. What is the probability of getting:

a.) a sum less than 5?

b.) the same number on both dice?

2. In a college graduating class of 100 students, 54 studied Mathematics, 69 studied

History, and 35 studied both Mathematics and History. If one of these students is
selected at random, find the probability that

a.) the student takes mathematics or history;

 b.) the student does not take either of these course.

3. If a card is drawn from a deck of 52 playing cards, what is the probability of getting:

a.) a number card below seven or a red card?

b.) a club or a heart card?

c.) a heart or a number card below 7?

d.) a face card or a red card?

e.) a black card or a red card?