8.7 PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT.

8.7.1 Revision on Probability

❖Probability of an event is the chance or degree that an event will happen. It tells us
how likely an event will happen.
The following words tell us about probability of events:
• Impossible event: means there's no chance that an event will happen. It will never
happen.
• Unlikely event: means there's a small chance that an event will happen.
• Equally likely: means there`s half chance that an event will happen.
• Likely event: means there's a big chance that an event will happen.
• Certain/sure event: means an event is going to happen, for sure. It will always
happen.
 BASIC PROBABILITY RULES
1) Possible values for probabilities range from 0 to 1( That is, 0≤ 𝑃(E) ≤ 1)
➢P(E)= 0 (Impossible event).
➢P(E)= 1 ( Certain event).
➢P(E) = ½ ( Equally likely event).
➢0< 𝑃 E < 0.5( Unlikely event).
➢0< 𝑃(E) < 1 (Likely event).
2) The sum of all the probabilities for all possible outcomes is equal to 1.
❖Probability can be measured by three different approaches.
A) the classical (mathematical) approach.
B) the empirical (relative frequency) approach.
C) the axiomatic approach.
 A. CLASSICAL( MATHEMATICAL ) APPROACH
1. SIMPLE CASES
If all the outcomes of a random experiment are equally likely and mutually exclusive, then the
probability of an event E is

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝐸 𝑜𝑓 𝑆 𝑛(𝐸)

P(E) = =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑛(𝑆)

2. Cases using permutations and combinations

Examples,
1. A bag contains cards numbered from 1 to 14. One card is drawn at random. Find the probability of:
a) selecting a prime number.
b) selecting a multiple of two.
c) selecting a 3 or a 4.
d) selecting a number less than 8.
 C`t.
2. Experiment: Rolling two dice; the sample space is shown below:

(1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)

(2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
(3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
(4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
(5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
(6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)
a. Find the probability that the first die is a 5
b. Find the probability that the first die is NOT a 5
c. Find the probability that at least one die is a 5
d. Find the probability that neither die is a 5
 2. Cases using permutations and combinations
EXAMPLES
1. There are 4 black, 2 red and 4 white balls in a box. If three balls are selected at random what is
the probability that
A all the balls selected are black?
B one ball is white?
C all the balls are of different colour
2. Two lamps are to be chosen from a pack of 12 lamps where four are defective and the rest are
non defective. What is the probability that
A both are defective?
B one is defective?
C at most one is defective?
 B) Empirical (relative frequency) approach.
This approach is based on the relative frequency of an event (or outcome) when
an experiment is repeated a large number of times. The empirical probability of an
event E is the relative frequency of an event E in the experiment.
𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑓𝐸
Thus, P(E) = =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑛

Examples,
If records show that 60 out of 1000 bulbs produced are defective (D),
then what is the probability of a newly produced bulb being defective?
 C) The Axiomatic or Postulate approach.
Axiomatic approach includes both classical and empirical definition of probability.
Let S be the sample space of a random experiment and let E be events in S. The probability of
E, denoted by P(E), that satisfies the following properties called axioms (or postulates) of
probability.
i. P(E)≥ 0 ( probability cannot be negative).
ii. P(S)= 1 ( Certain/sure event, if E=S).
iii. P(E1 ∪ 𝐸2) = P(E1) + P(E2), if E1 ∩ 𝐸2 = ∅.
iv. 0≤ 𝑃(E) ≤ 1 ( Probability range),
v. If E = ∅ (the impossible event), then P (∅) = 0.
vi. If E ⋃ E ' = S, then P(E ⋃ E ‘) = P(E) + P(E ' ) = P(S) = 1,
and P(E ') = 1 – P(E), where E ' = S \ E (not E)= S-E.
Note: Probability(P) is a function whose domain is the set of subsets of S (sample space)
and its range is the set of real numbers between 0 and 1 inclusively.
 EXERCISE ON AXIOMATIC APPROACH (PART 1)
1. A number x is selected at random from the numbers 1, 2, 3 and 4. Another number y is selected at
random from the numbers 1, 4, 9 and 16. Find the probability that the product of x and y is less than 16.
2. 240 students reside in a hostel. Out of which 50% go for the yoga classes early in the morning, 25% go
for the gym club and 15% of them go for the morning walk. Rest of the students have joined the laughing
club. What is the probability of students who have joined laughing club?
3. The probability of a defective egg in a lot of 400 eggs is 0.035. Calculate the number of defective eggs in
the lot. Also calculate the probability of taking out a non defective egg from the lot.
4. A bag contains 5 white balls, 7 red balls, 4 black balls and 2 blue balls. One ball is drawn at random from
the bag. Find the probability that the balls drawn is (i) white or blue. (ii) red or black.
(iii) not white. (iv) neither white nor black.
5. In a lottery, there are 10 prizes and 25 are empty. Find the probability of getting a prize.
Also verify P(E) + P( not E ) = 1 for this event.
 PART 2
6. A bag contains 15 white and some black balls. If the probability of drawing a black
ball from the bag is thrice that of drawing a white ball, find the number of black balls
in the bag.
7. A box contains 12 balls of which some are red in color. If 6 more red balls are put in
the box and a ball is drawn at random, the probability of drawing a red ball doubles
than what it was before. Find the number of red balls in the box.
8. In a family of 3 children, what is the probability of having at least one boy ?
9. Out of 250 bulbs in a box, 35 bulbs are defective. One bulb is taken out at random
from the box. Find the probability that the drawn bulb is not defective.
10. A single card is chosen at random from a standard deck of 52 playing cards. What
is the probability of choosing a card that is not a diamond?
 ODDS IN FAVOR OF AND ODDS AGAINST AN EVENT
Definition of odds:
Odds in probability of a particular event, means the ratio between the number of favorable outcomes
to the number of unfavorable outcomes. The odds of an event is a ratio that compares two sets of
outcomes – those in the event/occurrence and those not in the event/ non-occurrence.
1. Odds in favor: The odds in favor of an event E is the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to
the number of unfavorable outcomes that are not in the event E.

number of favorable outcomes(number of successes)

Odds in favor=
number of unfavorable outcomes(number of failures)
(Odds in favor = number of successes: number of failures)
2. Odds against an event: odds against is given by number of unfavorable outcomes to number of
favorable outcomes.

number of favorable outcomes(number of failers)

Odds against =
number of unfavorable outcomes(number of success)
(Odds against = number of failures : number of successes)
What is the difference between Odds and Probability?
ANS: The difference between odds and probability are:
• Odds of an event are the ratio of the success to the failure.
SUCCESS
That is, ODDS =
FAILURES
• Probability of an event is the ratio of the success to the sum of success and
failure.
SUCCESS
𝑷(𝐎𝐃𝐃𝐒 𝐈𝐍 𝐅𝐀𝐕𝐎𝐑) = AND P(ODDS
(SUCCESS + FAILURES)
FAILURES
AGAINST)= = 1-P(ODDS IN FAVOR)
(SUCCESS + FAILURES)
 EXAMPLES AND CLASS WORK
1. In throwing a die, find
A. Odds in favor of getting 4 B. Odds against getting 4 C. Probability of occurrence of 4.
2 The odds against of events are 4:9. Find the probability of its occurrence.
Class work
1. If odds in favor of X solving a problem are 4 to 3 and odds against Y solving the same
problem are 2:6. Find probability for:
(I) X solving the problem (II) Y solving the problem
2. In tossing three coins , find odds in favor of and against getting at least one head. What is
the probability of its odd in favor of getting exactly two tail?
 RULES OF PROBABILITY
𝑛(𝐸)
Recall, P(E) = ( to calculate probability of any event?
𝑛(𝑆)

Addition rule of probability :The rule of addition (also known as the "OR" rule) states that the
probability of two or more:
➢mutually exclusive events occurring is the sum of the probabilities of the individual events
occurring. On the other hand, if events are
➢not mutually exclusive events, (it means that the events can happen at the same time)
occurring is the sum of each event's probabilities minus the probability of both events happening
simultaneously.
Rule 1: If E1 and E2 are any two events, then
The probability that event E1 or E2 occur =
Probability that event E1 occur + Probability that event E2 occur
− Probability that both events E1 and E2 occur.
(Symbolically, P (E1∪ E2) = P(E1) + P(E2) – P(E1 ∩ E2))
Rule 2: If two events are mutually exclusive, (C`T
E1 ∩ E2 = ∅), then P(E1∪E2) = P(E1) + P(E2).
Clue: P(E1 ∩ E2) = 0, provided that E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive events.

EXAMPLE 1: If the probability of event A occurring is 0.40 and the probability of event B
occurring is 0.30, find the probability of events A "or" B is occurring.
EXAMPLE 2: If the probability of event A happening is 30% and the probability of event B
happening is 50%, and the probability of both events happening at the same time is 10%, find the
probability of either event A or event B is happening.
CLASS WORK
1.A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored black, blue, green, and red. What is the probability of
landing on red or blue after spinning this spinner?
2. A single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of rolling a 2 or a 5?
3.A glass jar contains 1 red, 3 green, 2 blue, and 4 yellow marbles. If a single marble is chosen at
random from the jar, what is the probability that it is yellow or green or blue?
 C`T
4.A single card is chosen at random from a standard deck of 52 playing cards.
What is the probability of choosing a king or a club?
5.A single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of rolling a number
greater than 3 or an even number?
6.There are 50 students enrolled in the second year of a business degree
program. During this semester, the students have to take some elective
courses. 18 students decide to take an elective in psychology, 27 students decide
to take an elective in philosophy, and 10 students decide to take an elective in
both psychology and philosophy. What is the probability that a student takes an
elective in psychology or philosophy?
 General Rule of Addition on Probability
1. For mutually exclusive events A, B and C, P (A U B U C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C).
2. For mutually inclusive events A, B and C
P (A U B U C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A ∩ B) - P(A ∩ C) - P(B ∩ C) + P(A ∩ B ∩ C)

EXERCISE( Part one: Class Activity)

1. Let A and B are two events such that, P (not A) = 0. 42, P (not B) = 0.48 ,
and P (A ∩ B) = 0.16 . Find P(A or B).
2 .The probability that a person will get an electrification contract is 3/5 and the probability
that he will not get plumbing contract is 5/8. The probability of getting at least one contract is
5/7. What is the probability that he will get both?
3. The probability that at least one of A and B occur is 0.6. If A and B occur simultaneously
with probability 0.2, then find P (A) + P (B).
4. Two dice are rolled once. Find the probability of getting an even number on the first die or a
total of face sum 8.
5. The probability of happening of an event A is 0.5 and that of B is 0.3. If A and B are
mutually exclusive events, then find the probability that neither A nor B happen.
 EXERCISE ( PART TWO: HOMEWORK)
8.If A, B, C are any three events such that probability of B is twice as
that of probability of A and probability of C is thrice as that of
probability of A and if P (A ∩ B) = 1/6, P (B ∩ C) = 1/4,
P (A ∩ C) = 1/8, P (A ∪ B ∪C) = 9/10, P (A ∩ B ∩C) = 1/15,
then find P (A), P (B) and P (C) ?
9. A coin is tossed thrice. Find the probability of getting exactly two
heads or at least one tail or two consecutive heads.
10. From a well-shuffled pack of 52 cards, a card is drawn at random.
Find the probability of it being either a red king or a black queen.
 C`T
11. A box contains cards numbered 3, 5, 7, 9, … 35, 37. A card is drawn at random
from the box. Find the probability that the drawn card have either multiples of 7 or
a prime number.
12 In a town of 8000 people, 1300 are over 50 years and 3000 are females. It is
known that 30% of the females are over 50 years. What is the probability that a
chosen individual from the town is either a female or over 50 years?
13.Three unbiased coins are tossed once. Find the probability of getting exactly 2
tails or at least 2 heads.
 B. Multiplication Rule of Probability
(Independent and Dependent Event)
Multiplication Rule: The multiplication rule (also known as the "AND" rule)
states that the probability of two independent events occurring together is equal
to the product of their individual probabilities.
▪ Independent event: replacement in any sequential experiment (P(E) is not
changed).That is, occurrence of the first event does not affect the occurrence of
the second event).
▪ Dependent event: without replacement in any sequential experiment (P(E) is
changed).That is, occurrence of the first event affect the occurrence of the
second event.
Rule 1: When E1 and E2 are independent,
C`T the probability that both events
occurring, denoted by P (E1 and E2), P (E1 ∩E2) or P (E1 E2) is given by:
P (E1 ∩ E2) = P (E1) × P (E2).
Rule 2:When E1 and E2 are any two dependent events, the probability that
both events occurring is given by:
P (E1 ∩ E2) = P (E1) × P (E2 | E1), whenever P (E1) ≠ 0.
= P (E2) × P (E1 | E2), whenever P (E2) ≠0.
(Since, P(E1∩E2) = P(E2∩E1))
Note: P(E1|E2) = Probability that event E1 occurs if we know ( “given that”)
outcome E2 has occurred.
The vertical line means “if” ; we can also say “given that”
1. An jar contains 12 pink balls and 6 blue balls. Without replacement, two balls are
drawn one after another. What is the probability that both balls drawn are pink?
2. A magician takes out two cards from a deck of cards, one after the other, without
replacement. What is the probability of getting an ace of spade, and a card of heart, as
first and second card, respectively?
3. A quiz has two questions. The first is a true/false question and the second is multiple
choice question with five possible answers (a, b, c, d, and e). What is the probability of
guessing at both questions and getting them both correct?
4. Box A contains 4 red balls and 2 white balls. Box B contains 2 red balls and 2 white
balls. A die is rolled. If the outcome is an even number, a ball is drawn from box A. If
the outcome is an odd number, a ball is drawn from box B. Find the probability that a
red ball is drawn.