I E101

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

Mo du l e 1 – Pa r t
1 Probability and Statistics
Review of Basic Concepts of
Basic Concepts of
Probability
And Sample Space
Sample Space
Definition 1:
o The set, S, of all possible outcomes of a particular
experiment is called the sample space for the
experiment.
o An outcome is an element of the sample space.
Sample Space
Example #1:
o Sample space of a coin flip: S = {H, T}

H
Sample Space
Example #2:
o Sample space of a die roll: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Sample Space
Example #3:
o Sample space of three die rolls? S = {111, 112, 113, …,
…, 664, 665, 666}
Sample Space
Example #4:
o Sample space of a single draw from a deck of cards:
S={As, Ac, Ah, Ad, 2s, 2c, 2h, …, …, Ks, Kc, Kd, Kh}
Events
Definition 2:
o An event is any subset of S (including S itself).
Sample Space of card draw

Event: “Jack”
Events
Definition 3:
o Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if

Definition 4:
o If , … are mutually exclusive and , then the collection , …
forms a partition of S.

heart spade
s s

club
diamond
s
s
Events
Example #1:
o If the sample space of an experiment consists of
determining the sex of a newborn child, then the sample
space will be.

Solution #1: S = {girl, boy}

Events
Example #2:
o If the sample space consists of the set of odd numbers not
exceeding 10 , then the sample space will be what?

Solution #2: S = {1,3,5,7,9}

Events
Example #3:
o What will be the sample space of random experiment
exhibited by flipping an unbiased coin once?

Solution #3: S = {Head, Tail}

Events
Example #4:
o What will be the sample space of random experiment
exhibited by flipping an unbiased coin twice?

Solution #4: S = {HH, HT, TT,TH}

Events
Example #5:
o What will be the sample space of random experiment
exhibited by flipping an unbiased coin thrice?

Solution #5: S = {HHH, HHT,HTH,HTT,THH,THT,TTH,TTT}

Tree Diagram
A tree diagram is a device used to list all possibilities of a
sequence of events in a systematic way.

Example #1: Tree Diagram for Tossing Two Coins

Tree Diagram
Example #2: Suppose we want to know the sample space
of flipping an unbiased coin three times. Display the
information using a tree diagram.
Sample Space and Probability
o A probability experiment is a process that leads to well-
defined results called outcomes.

o An outcome is the result of a single trial of a probability

experiment.

o Note: A tree diagram can be used as a systematic way to

find all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.
Sample Space and Probability
Formula for Classical Probability

Classical probability assumes that all outcomes in the

sample space are equally likely to occur.

That is, equally likely events are events that have the
same probability of occurring.
Sample Space and Probability
The probability of any event E is

This probability is denoted by

This probability is called classical probability, and it uses

the sample space S.
Classical Probability
Example #1: For a card drawn from an ordinary deck, find
the probability of getting (a)a queen, (b)a 6 of clubs,(c) a 3
or a diamond.

Solution #1:
(a) Since there are 4 queens and 52 cards,
P(queen) = 4/52 = 1/13.

(b) Since there is only one 6 of clubs, then

P(6 of clubs) = 1/52.
Classical Probability
Example #1: For a card drawn from an ordinary deck, find
the probability of getting (a)a queen, (b)a 6 of clubs,(c) a 3
or a diamond.

Solution #1:
(c) There are 4 “3”s and 13 diamonds, but the 3 of
diamonds is counted twice in the listing. Hence, there are
only 16 possibilities of drawing a 3 or a diamond, thus
P(3 or diamond) = 16/52 = 4/13.
Classical Probability
Example #2: When a single die is rolled, find the probability
of getting a 9.

Solution #2:
Since the sample space is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, it is impossible
to get a 9.

Hence, P(9) = 0/6 = 0.

Classical Probability

NOTE: The sum of the

probabilities of all outcomes
in a sample space is one.
Classical Probability
The complement of an event E is the set of outcomes in
the sample space that are not included in the outcomes
of event E.

The complement of E is denoted by (E bar).

E
Classical Probability
Example #1: Find the complement of rolling a die and
getting a 4.

Solution #1: Getting a 1, 2, 3, 5, or 6

Example #2: Find the complement of selecting a letter

of the alphabet and getting a vowel.

Solution #2: Getting a consonant.

Classical Probability
Example #3: Complement of selecting a day of the
week and getting a weekday.

Solution #3: Getting Saturday or Sunday.

Example #4: Complement of selecting a one-child

family and getting a boy.

Solution #4: Getting a girl.

Classical Probability
Rule for Complementary Event
o NOTE: The sum of the probabilities of all
outcomes in a sample space is one.

or

or
=1
Empirical Probability
The difference between classical and empirical
probability is that the classical probability assumes that
certain outcomes are equally likely while empirical
probability relies on actual experience to determine
the probability of an outcome.
Empirical Probability
Formula for Empirical Probability

Given a frequency distribution, the probability of an event

being in a given class is

This probability is called the empirical probability and is

based on observation.
Empirical Probability
Example #1: In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O
blood, 22 had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2
had AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find
the following:
(a) A person has type O blood.
(b)A person has type A or type B blood
Empirical Probability
Solution #1:
Blood Type Frequency (a) A person has type O blood.
A 22
B 5
AB 2 (b) A person has type A or type
O 21 B blood
𝒏=𝟓𝟎
Addition Rule of Probability
The Addition Rules for Probability:

o Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot

occur at the same time (i.e. they have no outcomes in
common).

A and B are mutually exclusive

A B
Addition Rule 1 of Probability
Addition Rule 1: When two events A and B are
mutually exclusive, the probability that A or B will occur
is

𝑷 ( 𝑨 𝒐𝒓 𝑩 ) =𝑷 ( 𝑨 )+ 𝑷 ( 𝑩)

A and B are mutually exclusive

A B
Addition Rule 1 of Probability
Example #1: At a political rally, there are 20
Republicans (R), 13 Democrats (D), and 6 Independents
(I). If a person is selected, select the probability that she
is either a democrat or an independent.

Solution #1:

The two events are mutually exclusive because one

cannot be both a democrat and independent
Addition Rule 2 of Probability
Addition Rule 2: When two events A and B are not
mutually exclusive, the probability that A or B will occur
is

A and B are not mutually exclusive

A 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩B
Addition Rule 2 of Probability
Example #1: In a hospital unit there are eight nurses
and five physicians. Seven nurses and three physicians
are females. If a staff person is selected, find the
probability that the subject is a nurse or a male.
Addition Rule 2 of Probability
Solution #1:
Staff Female Male Total
Nurse 7 1 8
Physicians 3 2 5
Total 10 3 13

The two events are not mutually exclusive because

a staff can be both a nurse and a male (male
nurse).
Addition Rule 2 of Probability
Example #2: On New Year’s Eve, the probability that a
person driving while intoxicated is 0.32, the probability
of a person having a driving accident is 0.09, and the
probability of a person having a driving accident while
intoxicated is 0.06. What is the probability of a person
driving while intoxicated or having a driving accident?
Addition Rule 2 of Probability
Solution #2:
Multiplication Rule 1 of Probability
Two events A and B are independent if the fact that A
occurs does not affect the probability of B occurring.

Example #1: Rolling a die and getting a 6, and then

rolling another die and getting a 3 are independent
events.
Multiplication Rule 1 of Probability
Multiplication Rule 1:
When two events A and B are independent , the
probability of both occurring is

𝑷 ( 𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩) =𝑷 ( 𝑨 ) 𝒙 𝑷 ( 𝑩)
Multiplication Rule 1 of Probability
Example #1:
A card is drawn from a deck and replaced; then a second
card is drawn. Find the probability of getting a queen on
the first card and then an ace on the second card.

Solution #1:
These two events are independent. Why? Because you
are returning the first picked card before you picked the
second card. Thus, the first pick doesn’t affect the
probability of the second pick.
4 4 1
𝑃 ( 𝐴𝑐𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑄𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛 ) =𝑃 ( 𝐴𝑐𝑒 ) 𝑥 𝑃 ( 𝑄𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛 ) = 𝑥 =
52 52 169
Multiplication Rule 1 of Probability
Example #2:
A Harris pole found that 46% of Americans say they
suffer great stress at least once a week. If three people
are selected at random, find the probability that all
three will say that they suffer stress at least once a
week.
Solution #2:
These events are independent. Why? Because the
probability of 46% doesn’t change in each people
selected.

Let S denote stress.

3
𝑃 ( 𝑆 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑆 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑆 ) =(0.46 ) =0.097
Multiplication Rule 1 of Probability
Example #3:
The probability that a specific medical test will show
positive is 0.32. If four people are tested, find the
probability that all four will show positive.

Solution #3:
These events are independent. Why? Because the
probability of 32% doesn’t change in each people
selected.

Let T denote a positive test result.

4
𝑃 ( 𝑇 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑇 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑇 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑇 ) =(0.32 ) = 0.010
SW #3 – ½ yellow paper
Find the probability of selecting Jack or Hearts in the first
draw, and Diamond or 3 on second draw if the card is
replaced after the first draw.
SW #3 – ½ yellow paper
Find the probability of selecting Jack or Hearts on the
first draw, and Diamond or Spades on second draw if the
card is replaced after the first draw.
Multiplication Rule 2 of Probability
When the outcome or occurrence of the first event
affects the outcome or occurrence of the second event in
such a way that the probability is changed, the events
are said to be dependent.

Example #1:
Having high grades and getting a scholarship are
dependent events.
Multiplication Rule 2 of Probability
The conditional probability of an event B in relationship
to an event A is the probability that an event B occurs
after event A has already occurred.

The notation for the conditional probability of B given A

is

Note: This does not mean A divided by B

Multiplication Rule 2 of Probability
Multiplication Rule 2:
When two events A and B are dependent , the
probability of both occurring is

𝑷 ( 𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩) =𝑷 ( 𝑨 ) 𝒙 𝑷 ( 𝑩∨ 𝑨)

Note: is read as “Probability of B given that A”

Multiplication Rule 2 of Probability
Example #1:
In a shipment of 25 microwave ovens, two are defective.
If two ovens are randomly selected and tested, find the
probability that both are defective if the first one is not
replaced after it has been tested.
Solution #1:
These events are dependent. Why? Because the proportion and
total no. of ovens changes on the second pick. This, the probability
of selecting the second oven changes once you selected the first
oven. Let T denote a positive test result.
Since you already
selected one
2 1 1 defected in the first
𝑃 ( 𝐷1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐷 2) =𝑃 ( 𝐷 1) 𝑥 𝑃 ( 𝐷 2∨𝐷 1) = 𝑥 = pick and is not
25 24 300 replaced, you will
only have 1 defective
out of 24 ovens.
 Multiplication Rule 2 of Probability
Example #2:
The WW Insurance Company found that 53% of the residents
of a city had homeowner’s insurance with its company. Of
these clients, 27% also had automobile insurance with the
company. If a resident is selected at random, find the
probability that the resident has both homeowner’s and
automobile insurance.
Solution #2:
Since the events are dependent,
𝑃 ( 𝐻 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴 )=𝑃 ( 𝐻 ) 𝑥 𝑃 ( 𝐴∨𝐻 )=(0.53)(0.27 )=0.14 % of event 1 and 2
relative to the whole

14% 86%

27% 73%

53% 47%
Multiplication Rule 2 of Probability
Example #3:
Box 1 contains two red balls and one blue ball. Box 2 contains
three blue balls and one red ball. A coin is tossed. If it falls
heads up, box 1 is selected and a ball is drawn. If it falls tails
up, box 2 is selected and a ball is drawn. Find the probability
of selecting a red ball.
Multiplication Rule 2 of Probability
Solution #3:
Tree Diagram
Probability of getting Red
ball if Box 1 is selected

Probability of getting Red

ball if Box 2 is selected

+
Conditional Probability
The probability that the second event B occurs given that
the first event A has occurred can be found by dividing
the probability that both events occurred by the
probability that the first event has occurred. The formula
is

𝑷 ( 𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩)
𝑷 ( 𝑩 ∨ 𝑨) =
𝑷 ( 𝑨)
Conditional Probability
Example #1: The probability that Sam parks in a no-
parking zone and gets a parking ticket is 0.06, and the
probability that Sam cannot find a legal parking space
and has to park in the no-parking zone is 0.2. On
Tuesday, Sam arrives at school and has to park in a no-
parking zone. Find the probability that he will get a ticket.
 Conditional Probability
Solution #1:
Find the probability that Sam gets a parking ticket given
that he parked in a no-parking zone.

Let N = parking in a no-parking zone

and T = getting a ticket.

Then,
𝑃 ( 𝑁 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑇 ) 0.06
𝑃 (𝑇 ∨𝑁 )= =% of event 2 relative to the
event 1
=0.30
(parked in no-parking
𝑃 (𝑁) 0.2
zone)
30% 70%

6% 94%
20% 80%
Conditional Probability
Example #1:
A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought women
in the armed forces should be permitted to participate in
combat. The results are shown in the table below.

Gender Yes (Y) No (N) Total

Male (M) 32 18 50
Female (F) 8 42 50
Total 40 60 100
Conditional Probability
Example #1:
Gender Yes (Y) No (N) Total
Male (M) 32 18 50
Female (F) 8 42 50
Total 40 60 100

a) Find the probability that the respondent answered “yes”

given that the respondent was a female.
100
Solution #1.a:
8 F - 50 M-
( )
𝑃 ( 𝐹 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑌 ) 100 4 50
𝑃 ( 𝑌 ∨𝐹 )= = =
𝑃 (𝐹) 50 25
( ) Y-8 N- Y- N-
100
42
% of “Yes” response 32 to
relative 18
“Female” respondents
Conditional Probability
Example #1:
Gender Yes (Y) No (N) Total
Male (M) 32 18 50
Female (F) 8 42 50
Total 40 60 100

b.) Find the probability that the respondent was a male, given
that the respondent answered “no”.
100
Solution #1.b:
18 Y- N-
( )
𝑃 ( 𝑀 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑁 ) 100 3 40 60
𝑃 ( 𝑀 ∨𝑁 ) = = =
𝑃 (𝑁) 60 10
( ) F-8 M- F - 42 M-
100
32
% of “Male” respondents 18
relative to “No” response
Axioms of Probability
For each event E of an experiment having a sample space
S there is a number, denoted by P(E), that is in accord
with the following axioms:

o Axiom 1:
o Axiom 2:
o Axiom 3:
Axioms of Probability
Example #1: A committee of size 5 is to be selected
from a group of 6 men and 9 women. If the selection is
made randomly, what is the probability that the
committee consists of 3 men and 2 women?

Solution #1:
Axioms of Probability
Example #2: A class in probability theory consists of 6
men and 4 women. An exam is given and the students
are ranked according to their performance. Assuming that
no two students got the same score, what is the
probability that women receive the top 4 scores?

Solution #2: