Probability Note-Taking Guide Page 1

Possible outcomes for a pair of dice. (first die, second die)

Possible sums for a pair of dice

1 2 3 4 5 6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

4 5 6 7 8 9 10

5 6 7 8 9 10 11

6 7 8 9 10 11 12
 Probability Note-Taking Guide Page 2

22.1 Probability and Set Theory

________ - A collection of well-defined objects.

_______________ - Each object in a set

_______________ - A set with no elements in it, denoted by _____ or ______

_________________ - All of the elements under consideration, denoted by _____ .

Two sets are __________ if they have the ____________ elements in them.

If every element of set A is also in set B, then set A is a_____________ of set B,

denoted by ________________.
 Probability Note-Taking Guide Page 3

Example 1: Example 2:

U = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10} U = {2, 3, 4,11, 12, 13, 14, 15 }

A = {1, 2 ,4 ,6 ,8 ,10} A = {2 ,4, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15}
B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5} B = {2, 3, 4}

What is 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵? What is 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵?

What is 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵? What is 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵?

What is ∼ 𝐴? What is ∼ 𝐵?
 Probability Note-Taking Guide Page 4
22.1 Probability and Set Theory Part 2

 Theoretical Probability
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 ℎ𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔
Probability(Event)= 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
Or
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑛(𝐴)
P(A)= 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒
= 𝑛(𝑆)

Probabilities of an Event and Its Complement

𝐶 The sum of the probability of an event and probability

𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴 ) = 1 of its complement is 1.

𝐶 The probability of an event is 1 minus the probability

𝑃(𝐴) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴 ) = 1 of its complement.

𝐶 The probability of the complement of an event is 1

𝑃(𝐴 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴) minus the probability of the event.

Examples
𝑐
Calculate 𝑃(𝐴), 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵), 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵), 𝑃(𝐴 )
𝑃(𝐴) =

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) =

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) =
𝑐
𝑃(𝐴 ) =

The numbers 1 through 30 are written on slips of

paper that are then placed in a hat. Students draw a 𝑃(𝐴) =
slip to determine the order in which they will give an
oral report. Event A is being one of the first 10
students to give their report. Event B is picking a 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) =
multiple of 6. If you pick first, calculate each of the
indicated probabilities.
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) =

𝑃(∼ 𝐴) =
 Probability Note-Taking Guide Page 5
One pile of cards contains the numbers 2 through 6 in red
hearts. A second pile of cards contains the numbers 4
through 8 in black spades. Each pile of cards has been
randomly shuffled. If on card from each pile is chosen at
the same time, what is the probability that the sum will
be less than 12?

A pair of dice are rolled. What is the probability of not

rolling a sum greater than 8?

Your grocery basket contains one bag of each of the

following items: oranges, green apples, green 𝑃(𝐴) =
grapes, green broccoli, white cauliflower, orange
carrots, and green spinach. You are getting ready to
transfer your items from your cart to the conveyor 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) =
belt for check-out. Event A is picking a bag
containing a vegetable first. Event B is picking a bag
containing a green food first. All bags have an equal 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) =
chance of being chosen first.

𝑃(∼ 𝐴) =

 
 Probability Note-Taking Guide Page 6

22.4 Mutually Exclusive and Overlapping Events

Two events that cannot both occur in the
same trial of an experiment.

Mutually Exclusive Events Example: If you flip a coin you cannot

have heads and tails in the same trial.

If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then 𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)

Example 1: Example 2:

What is the probability that you roll a A bag contains 26 tiles, each with a
number dodecahedron(12 sided) cube different letter of the alphabet written on
and the result is an even number or a it. You choose a tile without looking.
number greater than 7? What is the probability that you choose
one of the first 6 letters of the alphabet or
•Let A be the event that you roll an even
number. Let B be the event that you roll a a letter in the word INTEGRATED?
number greater than 7. Let S be the sample
space.

Example 3:
You roll two dice at the same time. What is the
probability that the sum of the numbers rolled is
a even number less than 8 or a number greater
than 9?
 Probability Note-Taking Guide Page 7
Finding Probability From a Two Way Table

P(Boy and Junior)

P(International)

P(International and On Time)

P(Senior or Girl)

P(domestic or late)

P(international and late)

23.1 Conditional Probability

 Probability Note-Taking Guide Page 8
The probability of an event occurring, given that
another event has already occurred.
Conditional Probability The conditional probability of event B is occurring,
given that event A has occurred is denoted by
P(B A) is read as “probability of B given A.”

Key idea: The original sample space no longer applies.

Two cards are selected in sequence from a standard deck. Find the probability that the second card is a
queen, given that the first card is a king. (Assume that the king is not replaced.)

Given a standard deck of cards. What is the probability that you draw a King given you have only red cards.

Two cards are selected from a standard deck of cards in sequence. What is the probability the second card
is a 4 of clubs given the first card was 4 of hearts. (Assume the 4 of hearts was not replaced.)
 Probability Note-Taking Guide Page 9
Earned degrees in the United States in recent year.

Find the probability that a child has a high IQ, given that the child has the gene.

Gene Present Gene not present Total

High IQ 33 19 52
Normal IQ 39 11 50
Total 72 30 102

Find the probability that someone is not Summer Vacation This Year
taking a summer vacation this year?
Yes No Total
Owns
A
Yes 46 11 57
Computer No 55 34 89
Find the probability that someone owns Total 101 45 146
a computer?

Find the probability that a randomly selected person is taking a summer vacation this year given that they
own a computer?

Find the probability someone is taking a vacation and owns a computer?

 Probability Note-Taking Guide Page 10
23.2 and 23.3 Independent and Dependent Events
Independent Events
When the occurrence of one event has no effect on the occurrence of another event, the two events
are called independent events.

The probability of two independent

events, A and B, is equal to the
(With Replacement) probability of event A times the probability
of event B.
Dependent Events
Two events that fail either of these tests are dependent events because the occurrence of one
event affects the occurrence of the other event.

The probability of two dependent events,

A and B, is equal to the probability of
(Without Replacement)
event A times the probability of event B.
However, the probability of event B now
depends on event A.
• If it is not stated whether or not it is replaced or not replaced, it is always
___________________________

Example 1:
Suppose you spin each of these two spinners.
What is the probability of spinning an even number
and a vowel?

P(even)=

P(vowel)=

P(even & vowel)=

Example 2:
Suppose you spin each of these two spinners.
What is the probability of spinning a multiple of 2
on the first spinner and a vowel on the second
spinner?

P(multiple of 2) =

P(vowel)=

P(multiple of 2 & vowel) =

 Probability Note-Taking Guide Page 11
Example 3: Example 4:
You have a jar with 15 red marbles and 17 yellow You have a jar with 6 red marbles,10 yellow marbles
marbles. Suppose you randomly draw two marbles and 4 blue marbles. Suppose you randomly draw
from the jar sequentially putting the first one back one marble and then draw a second marble without
after the draw. What is the probability you draw red replacement. What is the probability you draw a blue
marble first and a yellow marble second. marble first and then a red marble second.

Example 5:
A drawer contains 3 red paperclips, 4 green paperclips, and 5 blue paperclips. One paperclip is
taken from the drawer and then replaced. Another paperclip is taken from the drawer. What is the
probability that the first paperclip is red and the second paperclip is blue?

Example 6:
You have a standard deck of cards. Find the following probabilities.

P(red card)

P(jack black cards)

P(Queen and then a black 5 with replacement)

P(ace and then a red king)

Example 7:
You have a standard deck of cards. Find the following probabilities.

P(red card and face card) without replacement

P(red ace and then a black 5 and then a 2 of hearts)

P(jack and then a red 5 and then a black 2) with replacement

P(king red cards)