Syllabus Type: Probability Theory

Title: Definitions, Classical Probability, Laws of Probability, Mutually exclusive events,

Non-mutually exclusive events, Conditional Probability, Dependent events, Probability
Tree, and Past paper questions.

Definitions

1) Experiment – a test to find the solution to a particular problem.

2) Random experiment – a test whose result depends on chance.
3) Outcome – a result of a random experiment.
4) Sample space – the set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment.
5) Sample point – each element in the sample space.
6) Event – A combination of one or more outcomes in a random experiment.

Classical Probability

• Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to occur. NOTE:

𝑛(𝐴) =
𝒏(𝑨) 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝐴
𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐴, 𝑷(𝑨) =
𝒏(𝑺)
𝑛(𝑆)
= 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

Laws of Probability

1. ∑ 𝑷(𝑨𝒊) = 𝟏
The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes in a sample space is equal to
one.

2. 𝟎 ≤ 𝑷(𝑨) ≤ 𝟏
The probability of an event can either be zero, one or a proper fraction.

3. 𝑷(𝑨′ ) = 𝟏 − 𝑷(𝑨)
The summation of the probabilities of an event and its complement is equal to
one.
Questions
1. Blue, red and purple balls were thrown in a container as shown below:

a. What is the probability of choosing a blue ball?

b. What is the probability of choosing a red ball?
c. What is the probability of choosing a purple ball?
d. Wat is the probability of choosing a blue, red or purple ball?
e. What is the probability of not picking a blue ball?

Solutions
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠
a) 𝑃(𝐵𝑙𝑢𝑒) = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠

3
=
12
1
=
4

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠

b) 𝑃(𝑅𝑒𝑑) =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠

2
=
12
1
=
6
 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑢𝑟𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠
c) 𝑃(𝑃𝑢𝑟𝑝𝑙𝑒) = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠

7
=
12

d) Let 𝐵 represent blue ball

Let 𝑅 represent red ball
Let 𝑃 represent purple ball

𝑃(𝐵 ∪ 𝑅 ∪ 𝑃) = 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝑅) + 𝑃(𝑃)

NOTE:
1 1 7
= 4 + 6 + 12 The sum of the probabilities of all
12
possible outcomes in a sample space
= 12 is equal to one. [Law #1]
=1

e) Method 1:
The probability of not choosing a blue ball will be equal to the probability of
choosing either a red ball or a purple ball.
𝑃(𝐵 ′ ) = 𝑃(𝑅) + 𝑃(𝑃)
1 7
= +
6 12
9
=
12
3
=
4

Method 2:
𝑃(𝐵 ′ ) = 1 − (𝑃(𝐵) NOTE:
1 The summation of the probabilities
=1− of an event and its complement is
4
equal to one. [Law #3]
3
=
4
2. A letter is picked at random from the English alphabet. Calculate the probability
that the letter is
a. a vowel
b. a consonant

a) There are 5 vowels out of the 26 letters in the English alphabet [a, e, i, o, u]
Therefore,
5
𝑃(𝑣𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑙𝑠) =
26
b) There are 21 consonants in the English alphabet.
Therefore,
21
𝑃(𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑠) =
26

3. A card is drawn at random from the 12 count cards, which are the kings, queens
and jacks. A card is pulled at random. Calculate the probability that the card is
a. a red king
b. a queen
c. not a queen

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔

a) 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔) = 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠
NOTE:
2 In a deck of cards, there are a total
𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔) = of 52 cards.
12
These cards are made up of:
1 → 13 red hearts
𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔) =
6 → 13 black clubs
→ 13 red diamonds
→ 13 black spade
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛
b) 𝑃(𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛) = 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠
Each of the 13 listed above
4 contains:
𝑃(𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛) =
12 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 and J, Q, K, A.
1
𝑃(𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛) =
3

c) 𝑃(𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑎 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛) = 1 − 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑜𝑓𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛

 1
𝑃(𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑎 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛) = 1 −
3
2
𝑃(𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑎 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛) =
3

Deck of Cards
• The image below shows what a deck of cards looks like.

NOTE:
The face cards are:
King (K), Queen (Q) and
Jack (J).
4. A bag contains 12 red discs, 15 green discs and 8 blue discs. A disc is pulled at
random.
a. Calculate the probability that the disc is red.
b. Evaluate the sum of the three probabilities.
c. Find the probability that the disc is not blue.

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐

a) 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐) = 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑠

12
𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐) =
35

b) 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐) + 𝑃(𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐) + 𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐)

12 15 8
+ + =1
35 35 35

Also
Recall: Law of probability #1
𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐) + 𝑃(𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐) + 𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐) = 1

c) Probability that the disc is not blue is the same as the “complement” of the
probability that the disc if blue.
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑠 𝑒𝑥𝑐𝑒𝑝𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑠
𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐 ′ ) =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑠
12 + 15
𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐 ′ ) =
35
27
𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐 ′ ) =
35
Mutually Exclusive events / Disjoint Sets

• Mutually exclusive events are events that CANNOT occur together.

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0
𝑷(𝑨 ∪ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑩)

𝑃(𝐴) 𝑃(𝐵)

Examples:
➢ Mr. Springer’s attendance in class – The outcome can either be he is present, or
he is absent. Both outcomes cannot occur at the same time.
➢ Flipping a coin – The outcome can be either tail or head but not both.

Non-mutually Exclusive events

• Non-mutually exclusive events are events that can occur simultaneously.

𝑷(𝑨 ∪ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑩) − 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩)

𝑃(𝐴) 𝑃(𝐵)

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

Examples:
➢ Liking more than one subject at school. Example: Mathematics and English.
➢ Ability to play more than one sport. Example: Tennis and Football.
Questions

1. A heart is drawn from a pack of 52 playing cards. Find the probability of drawing
a queen or a heart.

Let H represent heart.

Let Q represent queen. NOTE:
In a deck of cards, there are a total
13 of 52 cards.
𝑃(𝐻) = These cards are made up of:
52
→ 13 red hearts
4
𝑃(𝑄) = → 13 black clubs
52 → 13 red diamonds
→ 13 black spade
𝑷(𝑸 ∪ 𝑯) = 𝑷(𝑸) + 𝑷(𝑯) − 𝑷(𝑸 ∩ 𝑯)
4 13 1 Each of the 13 listed above
= + −
52 52 52 contains:
17 1 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 and J, Q, K, A.
= −
52 52
16
=
52
4
=
13

2. A card is drawn from the 12 count cards. Calculate the probability that it is a king
or a diamond.

𝑃(𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑜𝑟 𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑑) = 𝑃(𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔) + 𝑃(𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑑) − 𝑃(𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 ∩ 𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑑)

4 3 1 NOTE:
= + −
12 12 12 In the 12 count cards, there are:
7 1 4 king, 4 queen, 4 jack. [Total
= − =12]
12 12
6
= There is one diamond in each of
12 the three above [king, queen,
1 and jack].
=
2
3. In a class of 40 students, 25 like Mathematics, 22 like Physics and 7 like both
Mathematics and Physics. If a student is chosen at random, calculate the
probability that the student likes Mathematics or Physics.

From the question:

25 like Mathematics
22 like Physics
7 like both Mathematics and Physics
Total students = 40

Let 𝑀 represent Mathematics.

Let 𝑃 represent Physics.

Required to find: 𝑃(𝑀 ∪ 𝑃)

Method 1:

𝑃(𝑀 ∪ 𝑃) = 𝑃(𝑀) + 𝑃(𝑃) − 𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝑃)

25 22 7
= + −
40 40 40

=1

Method 2:

𝑃(𝑀) 𝑃(𝑃)

25 − 𝟕 𝟕 22 − 𝟕

18 7 15
𝑃(𝑀 ∪ 𝑃) = + +
40 40 40

=1
4. In a class of 38 students, 23 like chutney, 15 like soca and 8 like both chutney and
soca. If a student is chosen at random from this class, find the probability that the
student likes chutney or soca.

From the question:

23 like Chutney
15 like Soca
8 like both Chutney and Soca
Total students = 38

Let 𝐶 represent Chutney.

Let 𝑆 represent Soca.

Required to find: 𝑃(𝐶 ∪ 𝑆)

𝑃(𝐶 ∪ 𝑆) = 𝑃(𝐶) + 𝑃(𝑆) − 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝑆)

23 15 8
= + −
38 38 38

15
=
19

5. A golf ball is drawn at random from a bag containing 15 white balls, 12 red balls
and 13 orange balls. Calculate the probability of drawing either a white or an
orange ball.

From the question:

15 white balls NOTE:
12 red balls These are Mutually
13 orange balls Exclusive events.

Total balls = 40

Let 𝑊 represent white ball.

Let 𝑂 represent orange ball.

Required to find: 𝑃(𝑊 ∪ 𝑂)

𝑃(𝑊 ∪ 𝑂) = 𝑃(𝑊) + 𝑃(𝑂)

 15 13
= +
40 40
28 7
= 40 or 10

Conditional Probability and Dependent events

• The conditional probability that A occurs given that B has already occurred, is
written as 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵).
• Conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring given that
another event has already occurred.

𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩)
𝑷(𝑨|𝑩) =
𝑷(𝑩)

Dependent events

➢ If two events A and B are dependent, then the occurrence of event B affects the
probability of the occurrence of event A.

𝑷(𝑨 ∪ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑩) × 𝑷(𝑨|𝑩)

Independent events

➢ If two events A and B are independent, then the probability of the occurrence of
either event is not affected by the occurrence of the other.

𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) × 𝑷(𝑩)

Questions

1. A die is thrown and an odd number turns up. What is the probability that it is a
prime number?

Let O represent an Odd number

Let P represent a Prime number

𝑃(𝑃 ∩ 𝑂)
𝑃(𝑃|𝑂) =
𝑃(𝑂)

2 3
= ÷
6 6

2 6
= ×
6 3

2
=
3

2. A bag contains 8 blue marbles and 6 green marbles. A blue marble is removed
and not replaced. Calculate the probability that the second marble removed is
blue.

After the first blue marble is removed, we are left with 7 blue marbles and 6 green
marbles. This is a total of 13 marbles.

7
Therefore, the probability that the 2nd marble that is removed is blue is 13
3. A jar contains red and green marbles. Two marbles are chosen from the jar and
not replaced. The probability of selecting a red marble then a green marble is
0.35, and the probability of selecting a red marble on the first draw is 0.57. What
is the probability of selecting a green marble on the second draw, given that the
first marble drawn was red.

Let R represent red marbles.

Let G represent green marbles.

From the question:

𝑃(𝑅 ∩ 𝐺) = 0.35
𝑃(𝑅) = 0.57

𝑃(𝑅 ∩ 𝐺)
𝑃(𝐺|𝑅) =
𝑃(𝑅)

0.35
=
0.57

= 0.614
PROBABILITY TREE:
A probability tree diagram is one that consists of “branches” for different possibilities. Each
branch is labelled with a probability for the occurrence of the event that the branch represents,
and the outcome is written at the end of the branch. The probability tree for one toss of a coin
is as follows:

Birds
1
2

1 Numbers
2

If we let B be the even “Birds is obtained”, ten the diagram can be drawn as either:

B
1
2

1 B’
2

Or

B
0.5

0.5 B’
Extending the diagram to two tosses of a coin, we have:

B
0.5

B
0.5
0.5 B’

B
0.5
0.5 B’

0.5
B’

And we can deduce the following from the above tree diagram:

B 𝑷(𝑩 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝟎. 𝟓 × 𝟎. 𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓
0.5

B
0.5
0.5 B’ 𝑷(𝑩 ∩ 𝑩′) = 𝟎. 𝟓 × 𝟎. 𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓

B
0.5 𝑷(𝑩′ ∩ 𝑩) = 𝟎. 𝟓 × 𝟎. 𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓
0.5 B’

0.5
B’ 𝑷(𝑩′ ∩ 𝑩′) = 𝟎. 𝟓 × 𝟎. 𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓

P (getting two Birds) = 0.25

P (getting two Numbers) = 0.25
P (getting one bird and one number) = 0.25 + 0.25 = 0.5
Now that we understand how to construct a simple probability tree, let us look at how to use
it:

1) Multiply the probability along the branches to get the end results.
2) On any set of branches that meet at a point, the probabilities MUST add up to 1.
3) Check that all the end results add up to 1.
4) To answer any questions, find the relevant end results. If more than one satisfy the
requirements, ADD these end results together.

Let us now look at some examples that will make probability trees much clearer.

Example:

You are attending football practice today and prefer to be the goalkeeper. There are two
coaches who run practice sessions. If coach Tom is there, your probability of being
goalkeeper is 0.5 while with coach David present, you only have a 0.3 probability of
being chosen as goalkeeper. Coach Tom usually takes 6 out of every 10 practice sessions.
What is the probability that you will be goalkeeper today?
 SOLUTION:

Let T be the event that coach Tom is there today

Let G be the event that you are chosen as goalkeeper

Using probability tree, we have:

G 0.30
0.5

T
0.6
0.5 G’ 0.30

G 0.12
0.3
0.4 T’

0.7
G’ 0.28

From the probability tree:

P(being goalkeeper today) = 0.30 + 0.12
= 0.42
Example:
2
In a batch of tomato seeds, 3 have been treated to improve germination while the rest have
been left untreated. The probability of germination of the treated seeds is 0.8 while untreated
ones have a 50% probability of germination.

(a) Find the probability that a seed, selected at random, will germinate.
(b) The seeds were sown and given time to germinate, find the probability that a
randomly selected seed had been treated, given that it had germinated.
Solution:

Let T be the event “the seed is treated”

Let G be the event “the seed germinates”

Now:

G 𝟖
𝑷(𝑻 ∩ 𝑮) =
0.8 𝟏𝟓

T
2 𝟐
0.2 G’ 𝑷(𝑻 ∩ 𝑮′) =
3 𝟏𝟓
G
0.5 𝟏
𝑷(𝑻′ ∩ 𝑮) =
1 T’ 𝟔
3
0.5
G’ 𝟏
𝑷(𝑻′ ∩ 𝑮′) =
𝟔
(a) P (G) = 𝑷(𝑻 ∩ 𝑮) + 𝑷(𝑻′ ∩ 𝑮)

8 1
= 15 + 6

7
= 10

= 0.7

𝒑(𝑻∩𝑮)
(b) 𝑷(𝑻|𝑮) = 𝑷(𝑮)

8
15
= 7
10

8 10
= 15 × 7

= 0.762 ( to 3 sig. fig)

Example:
3 1 1
Events A and B are such that P(A’) = 5 , 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴′) = 3 and 𝑃(𝐵′|𝐴) = 4. By drawing a tree
diagram, find:

(a) P (B)
(b) 𝑃(𝐴′|𝐵)
Solution:

3 3
B
4 10

A
2
1 B’
1
5 10
4
1 1
B
3 5
3 A’
5
2
2
3 B’ 5

From diagram:

3 1
(a) P (B) = 10 + 5 = 0.5

𝒑(𝑨′∩𝑩)
(b) 𝑷(𝑨′|𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑩)

1
5
= 1
2

1 2
=5×1

2
=5
Example:
When a person needs a limousine, it is hired from one of three companies, X, Y, or Z. Of
the hirings, 40% are from X, 50% are from Y and 10% are from Z. Of the limos hired
from X, 9% arrive late, the corresponding percentages for limos hired from companies Y
and Z are 6% and 20% respectively. Calculate the probability that the next limo hired:

(a) Will be from X and will not be late

(b) Will arrive late

(c) Given that a call is made for a limousine and that it arrives late, find the probability
that it came from Y.
Solution:

Let X be the event “limousine is hired from X”

Let Y be the event “Limousine is hired from Y”
Let Z be the event “Limousine is hired from Z”
Let L be the event “Limousine is late”

L
0.09
X
0.4 0.91
L’

0.5 0.06 L
Y

0.94
0.1 L’
0.20 L
Z

0.80
L’

(a) From probability tree:

𝑃(𝑋 ∩ 𝐿′) = 0.364

(b) P (L) = 𝑃(𝑋 ∩ 𝐿) + 𝑃(𝑌 ∩ 𝐿) + 𝑃(𝑍 ∩ 𝐿)

= 0.036 + 0.030 + 0.020
= 0.086

(c) Now:

𝑃(𝑌 ∩ 𝐿)
𝑃(𝑌|𝐿) =
𝑃(𝐿)

0.030
= 0.086

= 0.349

23 | P a g e
Past Paper Questions

Taken from 2013 – Paper 2

1. Of the persons buying petrol at a service station, 40 percent are females. Of the
females, 30 percent pay for their petrol with cash, and of the males, 65 percent
pay for their petrol with cash.
a. Copy and Complete the following tree diagram, by putting in all the
missing probabilities, to show this information.

b. What is the probability that a customer pays for patrol with cash?
c. Determine which is the more likely event.
EVENT T: Customer is female, GIVEN that the petrol is paid WITH cash.
EVENT V: A male customer does NOT pay for petrol with cash.
Solutions

a)

NOTE:
The branches showing
the probabilities should
add up to 1
[Recall – 1st Law of
Probability]

b) 𝑃(𝐶𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑟 𝑝𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑐𝑎𝑠ℎ)

= 𝑃(𝑀𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑝𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝑂𝑅 𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑝𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ)
= (0.6 × 0.65) + (0.40 × 0.3)
= 0.39 + 0.12
= 0.51

c) Let 𝐹 represent Female

Let 𝑀 represent Male
Let 𝐶 represent Cash
Let 𝑂 represent Other methods of payment

Event T
𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐶)
𝑃(𝐹|𝐶) =
𝑃(𝐶)

(0.40 × 0.30)
𝑃(𝐹|𝐶) =
0.51

𝑃(𝐹|𝐶) = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟑𝟓
Event V
𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝑂) = 0.6 × 0.35

𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝑂) = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟏

Therefore, Event T is more likely to occur.

Taken from 2017 – Paper 2

2. The probability of a final-year college student receiving a reply for an internship

programme from three accounting firms, 𝑄, 𝑅 and 𝑆 is 0.55, 0.25 and 0.20
respectively. The probability that the student received a reply from form 𝑄 and is
accepted is 0.95. The probability that a student received a reply from firms 𝑅 and
𝑆 and is accepted is 0.30 for each of them.
a. Draw a tree diagram to illustrate the information above.
b. Determine the probability that the student will be accepted for an
internship programme.

Solutions

1.
NOTE:
The branches showing
the probabilities should
𝑃(𝑅) = 0.25 add up to 1
[Recall – 1st Law of
Probability]

Let 𝐴 represent the event that a student is accepted.

Let 𝐴′ represent the event that a student is NOT accepted.

2. 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝑄 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴) 𝑂𝑅 𝑃(𝑅 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴) 𝑂𝑅 𝑃(𝑆 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴)

= 𝑃(𝑄 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝑅 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝑆 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴)
= (0.55 × 0.95) + (0.25 × 0.30) + (0.20 × 0.30)
= 0.6575
Taken from 2014 – Paper 2

3. Two Ordinary six-sided dice are thrown together. The random variable 𝑆
represents the sum of the scores of their faces landing uppermost.
a. Copy and complete the sample space diagram below.

6 9

5 7

4 10

3 8

2 6

1 2

1 2 3 4 5 6

Sample Space diagram of 𝑆

b. Find
i. 𝑃(𝑆 > 9)
ii. 𝑃(𝑆 ≤ 4)
Solutions

a)

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

5 6 7 8 9 10 11

4 5 6 7 8 9 10

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1 2 3 4 5 6

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑠>9
b) 𝑃(𝑆 > 9) = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑠

3+2+1
=
6×6
6
=
36
1
=
6

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑠 ≤4
c) 𝑃(𝑆 ≤ 4) = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑠

3+2+1
=
6×6
6
=
36
1
=
6
Taken from 2021 – Paper 2

4. (a) Two fair tetrahedral dice with faces numbered 1, 2, 3, 4 are rolled. The
numbers obtained on the turned-down face of each dice are noted. Create a
sample space table listing ALL possible outcomes for the two dice.
(3 marks)
(b) Using your sample space table created in (a), or otherwise, determine the
probability of obtaining a 4
(i) on both dice (1 mark)
(ii) on at least one dice (1 mark)
(iii)on exactly one dice (1 mark)
(iv) Show that obtaining a 4 on both dice are independent events.
(2 marks)
(v) Determine the probability of obtaining a 4 on both dice, given that a 4
was obtained on at least one dice. (2 marks)

Solutions

a) Sample space table:

DIE 2

1 2 3 4

1 1, 1 1, 2 1, 3 1, 4

2 2, 1 2, 2 2, 3 2, 4
DIE 1

3 3, 1 3, 2 3, 3 3, 4

4 4, 1 4, 2 4, 3 4, 4
b) (i) 𝑃( 𝑜𝑏𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 4 𝑜𝑛 𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ 𝑑𝑖𝑐𝑒)
1
=
16

(ii) 𝑃 (𝑜𝑏𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 4 𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑒)

7
=
16

(iii) 𝑃(𝑜𝑏𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 4 𝑜𝑛 𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑒)

6
=
16
3
=
8

(iv) If two events, A and B are independent, then

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)

1 1 1
Since 𝑃(4 𝑎𝑛𝑑 4) = 16 and 𝑃(4) × 𝑃(4) = 4 × 4
1
= 16

Then, we can say that obtaining a 4 on both dice are independent events.

(v) Let 𝐴 = 𝑃(4 𝑜𝑛 𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ 𝑑𝑖𝑐𝑒) and 𝐵 = 𝑃(4 𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑐𝑒)
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴 | 𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐵)
1
= 16
7
16
1 7
= ÷
16 16
1 16
= ×
16 7
1
=
7