CHAPTER 16

Climate Change

Erratic weather patterns and climate change have emerged as the biggest environmental challenges
that are affecting almost all the sectors of economy particularly water resources, energy, health,
biodiversity with a major impact on agricultural productivity. In view of Pakistan’s high
vulnerability to the adverse impacts of climate change, the current government is committed to meet
this challenge and the Prime Minister has constituted “Prime Minister’s Committee on Climate
Change” to provide high level strategic guidance and platform for coordinated efforts on the issues
of climate change. Federal Forestry Board (FFB) has also been revived to rehabilitate forests and
forest cover in the country. Ministry of Climate Change has adopted a comprehensive approach on
the disaster risk reduction and management.

The government has also introduced climate budget coding and expenditure tracking system. This
initiative has become a solid conduit for the climate change finance mainstreaming and will foster
transparency in public investments. The monitoring of the expenditure will also give confidence to
the international development partners in tracking expenditure under different funding streams to
ensure that the finances are spent on the intended objectives.

Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC) has taken various initiatives in the area of climate change
adaptation and mitigation in accordance with our National Climate Change Policy which are as
under:

a) To ensure effective implementation of National Climate Change Policy and its Framework,
meetings of National Climate Change Policy Implementation Committee are being held
regularly.
b) MoCC has completed the process of ratification of Doha Amendment to Kyoto Protocol.
c) Pakistan Climate Change Council and Pakistan Climate Change Authority are being established
to address the issues of climate change and meet Pakistan’s obligations under international
conventions relating to climate change.
d) Climate Change Council is being established and the mandate is to:
i. Monitor implementation of international agreements
ii. Approve and monitor implementation of comprehensive adaptation and mitigation policies,
strategies, plans, programs & projects
iii. Monitor implementation of National Adaptation Plan
iv. Protection and conservation of renewable and non-renewable resources, species & habitats
e) Preparation of Pakistan’s Second National Communication (SNC) on Greenhouse Gases (GHG)
emissions is at final stage.
f) Biennial Update Report (BUR) is an extended report on National Communications which
describes the status of GHG emissions and mitigation measures taken by the countries. MoCC
has started preparatory work on Pakistan’s first BUR.

All these are indicators of a shifting landscape in Pakistan under the present government towards a
cleaner, greener and sustainable future aiming for lowering the emissions and ensuring climate
Pakistan Economic Survey 2018-19

resilient growth.

Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) Program

Pakistan is a signatory to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). SDG 6 i.e. clean water and
sanitation aims to provide safe drinking water to 95 percent of the population and access to safe
sanitation to 72 percent of the population by the year 2030. Currently the national base line for safe
drinking water is 36 percent and for sanitation is zero percent. The indicators in national data sets for
WASH: Pakistan Social and Living Standard Measurement (PSLM) and Multiple Indicator Cluster
Survey (MICS) were reviewed and aligned with Sustainable Development Indicators 6.1, 6.2 and
6.3.1.

Safely Managed Water

The access to improved drinking water sources (piped, hand pump, motorized pump and closed well)
is 89 percentage, available when needed (24 hours available at premises) is 77.5 percent, basic
service is 53 percent (basic services but not free from contamination) contamination is 36 percent.
The lowest figure of all three that is free from contamination is 36 percent, which is the baseline
figure of safely managed water in Pakistan in 20181.

Safely Managed Sanitation

Improved sanitation is 63 percent (it is 58 percent as per JMP), hand washing with soap is 60 percent
and data regarding on-site and off-site treatment is not available or is less than 1 percent. The lowest
of all figure of the three is On-Site and Off-Site treatment so baseline safely managed sanitation is
zero.

Inclusion and Disparities

There is significant difference between access to piped water in urban areas with coverage of 48
percent and of rural areas with 13 percent only. Furthermore, only 10 percent of the poorest have
access to piped water supply compared to 39 percent of the rich and 35 percent of the richest groups.
Under sanitation, less than half of the rural population in Pakistan use improved sanitation. Only 20
percent of the poorest have access to improved sanitation compared to 82 percent of the richest.
Similarly, 40 percent of the poorest have no toilets compared to only 1 percent of the richest.2

Sector Policies/Strategies
The Prime Minister of Pakistan has reinforced the commitment of government for creating an
enabling environment for water and sanitation through launching of Clean Green Pakistan
Movement (CGPM) in October 2018, showing the highest level of political commitment. The CGPM
will seek institutional strengthening for effective service delivery and behavioural change for
sustenance and continuity for the accessibility and availability of safe water and sanitation to the
people of Pakistan.

Institutional Arrangements
The provincial and administrative units take a lead on the identification, planning and
implementation of drinking water and sanitation policy along with budgetary allocations and
spending in their jurisdictions. At federal level, Ministry of Climate Change has been entrusted the
role of policy formulation, standards setting, reporting and coordination for regional and
international commitments. In order to strengthen the institutional arrangements at the national level,
the MoCC has created a Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) Strategic Unit in 2018 based on a

1
Pakistan Country Preview Paper 2017
2
PSLM 2015
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capacity assessment done in 2016.

Capacity Development
The WASH Strategic Unit at the Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC) rolled out Joint Sector
Reviews (JSRs) of WASH in 2016/2017 by arranging a training workshop of key provincial
departments and sector partners. All four provinces organized JSRs in 2017-18, which culminated in
a National JSR in December 2018 by the MoCC. The overall SDG 6.1 and 6.2 targets for WASH
have been finalized along with a roadmap for next two years.

Planning, Monitoring and Review

There is no single regulatory and monitoring authority for carrying out M&E and reporting on
WASH. Each province carries out WASH activities in its jurisdiction and also compiles data.
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) is the national custodian of tracking and reporting the progress
on SDGs. The MoCC and PBS brought different stakeholders together in 2017 and 2018 for
developing consensus on the indicators and methods of data collection for tracking and planning.

Sector Financing
The overall estimated financial layout of the sector for 2017-2018 was Rs 128,000 million. This
includes:

i. Government /public sector expenditure on water and sanitation: Rs 80,000 million

ii. ODA and Voluntary transfers for WASH: Rs 4,200 million
iii. Repayable Financing :Rs 8,200
iv. Tariffs for services provided: Rs 25,100 million and Households’ out of pocket expenditures:
Rs 9,900 million. Currently, the contribution of private sector is not reflected in financial
layout available for 2017-18.

Sustainable Development Targets for Pakistan

By using the SDG costing tools developed by SWA, Pakistan calculated annual investment needs for
WASH Sector. Below calculations are based on current coverage of safely managed water i.e. 36
percent and safely managed for sanitation i.e. zero. Based on SDG costing tool, it is estimated that
Pakistan needs Rs450 billion annually to meet SDG targets by 2030. Presently, Pakistan is spending
PKRs 80 billion annually through public sector while overall financial layout of the sector is PKRs
130 billion. However, it is under-reported as many of the departments, providing water and
sanitation services as integral component of their interventions do not report their spendings like
school education, health, housing, works and communication, irrigation, etc.

Annual Financial Needs for Safely Managed WASH Services -PKRs Million
# Description Urban Rural Total
Water Sanitation Water Sanitation Total
1 New Services: Basic Access 13,968 12,797 8,595 28,543 63,883
2 New Services: Safely Managed 62,630 48,904 113,736 123,099 348,369
3 Sustaining existing services: Basic Access 16,635 11,100 11,110 20,735 59,580
4 Sustaining existing services: Safely Managed 36,229 11,100 33,461 20,735 101,525
6 Overall Financing Needs 98,849 60,004 147,197 143,834 449,894

The current allocation for 2018-19 is Rs. 150 billion and Pakistan shall be able to make a growth of
2.1 percent annually. The country shall be able to cover 95 percent of safe water and 72 percent of
safe sanitation (62 percent by investment and 10 percent with private sector).

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Forests
According to the Pakistan Forestry Outlook Study total area of forests in the country is 4.34 million
ha (5.01 percent), out of which 3.44 million ha forests exist on state-owned lands and remaining on
communal and private lands. Annual consumption of wood (timber and fuel wood) is estimated at 44
million cubic meters whereas annual growth of natural forests is 14.4 mm3, resulting in over-
exploitation of forest resources. Moreover, sole dependence of forest-owning local communities on
this resource for livelihood is reported as main cause of deforestation. The contribution of forest in
GDP is 0.4 percent. Under Millennium Development Goals (Goal-7), Pakistan had committed to
increase forest cover to 6 percent, which could not be achieved mainly due to financial constraints of
federal and provincial governments. Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) from either bilateral
or multilateral sources has also declined drastically impeding government policies and plans to bring
additional lands under tree cover.

Ministry of Climate Change is implementing following initiatives towards achievement of objectives

of above Conventions and Protocols with the technical and financial support of Global Environment
Facility( GEF), UN agencies, World Bank, multilateral donors and NGOs including International
Union for Conservation of Nature(IUCN) and WWF and PSDP.

 Mangrove for the Future (MFF) regional program in collaboration with IUCN-Pakistan
 Implementation of World Bank funded REDD+ Readiness Preparation Proposal (R-PP)
 Preparation and implementation of National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan
 Revival of forestry and wildlife resources in Pakistan (Green Pakistan Program)
 Up-scaling of GPP into Ten Billion Tree Tsunami (new initiative)
 Scaling-up of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) risk reduction in Northern Pakistan
 Reversing Deforestation and degradation in high conservation value pine forests in Pakistan
 Sustainable Land Management Program to combat desertification in Pakistan (SLMP II)
 Implementation of Federal Forest Policy 2015
Measures to Increase Forest Cover
Seasonal Tree Planting Campaigns (Plants in Millions)
In order to enhance tree cover in the country, Season Target Achieve Survival
seasonal tree planting campaigns held each ment Rate
year and government, private departments, Spring 2018 102.4 84.32 76%
organizations actively involved in planting Monsoon 2018 47.44 55.195 78%
activities. During 2018 inter-provincial Spring 2019 141.72
meetings on the onset of spring 2018 and
Monsoon 2018 were held whereby achievement against target fixed for tree planting are as follows:

Mangroves for the Future (MFF)

Mangroves for the Future (MFF) initiative focuses on promotion of an integrated ocean wide
approach to coastal zone management. Under this initiative more than 30 projects have been
completed since the inception.

Participation in Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+)

Reduced Emission from deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) is a concept adopted by the
countries under United Nations Framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC) in 2010. The

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concept relates to absorption of atmospheric carbon through forest resource. Due to accumulation of
carbon in standing trees their financial value increases. Carbon stoked in forest is traded in carbon
markets.

The REDD+ Readiness Preparation Proposal (R-PP)

R-PP is being implemented in Pakistan with a grant of$ 3 .8 million since July, 2015. Pakistan was
awarded the grant through a competitive process by Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) of
World Bank. International and national consultants were hired to prepare documents required to
complete the REDD+ readiness phase. Final documents have been prepared by the consultants and
the project has been shared with the Forest Departments of provinces and territories for
acceptance/concurrence in February, 2019.

Meanwhile in 2018, an additional grant of $ 4.01 million has also been awarded by FCPF to further
support the preparedness activities in Pakistan till June, 2020.

Migratory Birds and Houbara Bustard Endowment Fund

This Fund was established in 2016 and it will provide support for developing and implementing
programs for conservation of valuable migratory birds with an initial endowment of Rs. 250 million.

Green Pakistan Program – Revival of Forest Resources in Pakistan

The main objective of the program is to facilitate transition towards environmentally resilient
Pakistan by mainstreaming notions of adaptation and mitigation through ecologically targeted
initiatives covering afforestation, biodiversity conservation and enabling policy environment. The
program towards reviving forestry resources in the country is being implemented through PC-I
scheme titled, Green Pakistan Program-Revival of Forestry Resources in Pakistan (2016-2021). The
estimated cost of the project is Rs. 3.652 million for a period of five years.

Ten Billion Trees Tsunami Program (TBTTP) is a full-fledged organized and an elaborated approach
aiming at revival of forestry and wildlife resources in light of international conventions and national
and provincial legislative frameworks has been initiated. The implementation modalities for TBTTP
have been developed under the Chairmanship of Federal Advisor on Climate Change. Upon the
consultation with provinces and federating units, it was decided to upscale the existing
implementation framework of Green Pakistan Program in light of lessons learnt from KP-Billion
Tree Tsunami Program under the PSDP funding mechanism. The Prime Minister of Pakistan
inaugurated the Ten Billion Trees Tsunami Program on 2nd September, 2018 during “Plant for
Pakistan Day” event.

Ten Billion Tree Tsunami Program, Phase-I

1. Time required for completion of Program 8-Years (2016-2024)
2. Capital cost of Program
i. Forestry Component Rs. 98.051 billion
ii. Wildlife Component Rs. 12.0316 billion
Total: Rs 110.0826 billion
3. The Ten Billion Tree Tsunami Program, Phase-I will be implemented with an overall cost of Rs.
110.0826 billion. The Federal Government would make an allocation of Rs. 69.067 Billion on
cost sharing basis for five years (2019-2024) to revive the forestry and an allocation of Rs.7.30
billion for wildlife resources of Pakistan.

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Specific Objectives of TBTTP

The program has three components:
a) Enhancement of Forest Cover and management of plantations, state, guzara and reserve forests
b) Biodiversity Conservation and establishment of 725 acres of Zoo-cum Botanical Garden,
Islamabad
c) Institutional Strengthening of Zoological Survey of Pakistan

A). Enhancement of Forest Cover

This component focuses on enhancement of the forest cover by adding 4.446 billion indigenous
plants through afforestation, reforestation and regeneration over next five (05) years to curb the
impacts of climate change.

The priority areas for the purpose are as under:

a. Conservation and enhancement of natural forests through assisted natural regeneration

b. Road and canal side plantation
c. Rehabilitation and re-stocking of historical plantations
d. Restoration and improvement of scrub forests
e. Increase in existing cover of mangrove forests
f. Watershed and soil conservation in hilly and river catchment areas (reserved as well as
community forests)
g. Rehabilitation of guzara and protected forests
h. Protection and augmentation of dry temperate forests

Biodiversity Conservation
The Ministry of Climate Change based upon extensive discussions with all stakeholders recognized
that challenges to wildlife protection and preservation could be overcome through improvement and
effective implementation of wildlife legislations and institutional strengthening.

a. Enhanced management of Protected Areas (Biosphere Reserve/ National Parks) with special
focus on Eco-tourism (at least one in each province/territory) on international standards
including Margalla Hills, National Park, Islamabad
b. Establishment or Up gradation of existing Zoo on international standards (at least one in each
province / territory)
c. Revival of Critically Endangered Habitats
d. Curbing of illegal wildlife trafficking through establishment of control desks in
international/national airports
e. Rehabilitation/ Rescue Centers for Confiscated Wildlife in each province/ territory
f. Zero plastic in protected areas (All protected areas of Pakistan)
g. Improvements of Wildlife related Legislations and its implementation
h. Liaison between Wildlife Departments and Universities
i. Rehabilitation of forest cover in Man and the Biosphere (MAB) reserves and intervention for
declaration of more MAB reserves, which are in pipeline

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B). Institutional Strengthening

Zoological Survey of Pakistan (ZSP) is the pioneer research organization for multi-disciplinary
zoological and wildlife related matters in the country. Therefore, to enhance its capacity following
are the specific objectives:

a) Strengthening and capacity building of ZSP through establishment of its regional offices in each
province
b) Inventory of Endangered Wildlife species and Habitat across Pakistan
Overall number of plants planted, sown and regenerated in plantations and enclosures and
planting stock established in nurseries:
a. Total plants planted, sown and regenerated in plantations and enclosures are 33.065 million
b. Planting stock established in nurseries are 22.005 million
Watershed Management and Soil Conservation works
a) Intensive planting of suitable species on 22 ha of degraded slopes in Giglit Baltistan (66,655
plants)
b) 30.35 ha land treated with a combination of different bio-engineering structures consisting of
layering, vegetated soft gabions, live brushwood check dams etc. in AJK
c) 2803 cubic meter of bio-engineering structures constructed in Rawalpindi North Forest Circle in
Punjab
d) 3,913 cubic meter of loose stone check dams constructed with 566 cubic meters in Juniper and
Chilghoza forests of Balochistan and 3,347 cubic meters in Scrub Forests of FATA
e) 991 cubic meter of Gabion structures constructed in Chilghoza Forests of Balochistan
f) 61 meter of gabion flood protection spurs constructed in Gilgit Baltistan
g) 254 meter of diversion channels constructed to divert water from streams to marginal waste
lands for afforestation in Gilgit Baltistan
h) 72 water harvesting ponds constructed with 104140 plants planted in the immediate catchments
of these ponds in Rawalpindi North and Rawalpindi South Forest Circles in Punjab

Convention on Biological Diversity

The government is firmly committed to take necessary steps in fulfilling its obligations on the issues
related to Conservation of Biological Diversity. National consultation on Sixth National Report has
been completed and the report will be submitted to Secretariat of Convention on Biological Diversity
after approval. National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (NBSAP) has been approved and
submitted to the Secretariat of Convention on Biological Diversity. National actions towards
implementation of NBSAP are well under way:

1) Access and Benefit Sharing (ABS) Law is in process of consultation for wider acceptance
2) Astola Island was declared as first marine protected area of the Pakistan. Consultation on other
potential sites like Churna Island and MianiHorr is in process

Pakistan’s compliance with Montreal Protocol

Pakistan is party to the Vienna Convention for the protection of the Ozone Layer and its Montreal
Protocol. A dedicated National Ozone Unit is established in the Ministry of Climate Change for
effective compliance of the Convention and its Protocol. Pakistan is successfully implementing the
obligations of the Montreal Protocol and has phased out 10 percent Hydrochlorofluoro carbons
(HCFCs) in January 2015 as per the given time line through multi-pronged actions including ozone
depleting substances (ODS) trade restrictions, awareness and capacity building campaigns, and
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technology transfer. The implementation is a continuous process and at present Pakistan is

successfully moving towards 35 percent reduction targets of the HCFCs till 1st January, 2020.

Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) management in Pakistan

Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) are highly toxic chemical considered as global threat to Human
Health and environment. Stockholm Convention on POPs was ratified by Pakistan in 2008. The
elimination of POPs pesticide stockpiles became more urgent after the 2010 floods damaged some of
the storage sites of hazardous chemicals and pesticides resulting in a greater risk to human and
environmental health. Pakistan is now on its way for comprehensive reduction and elimination of
persistent organic pollutants aiming to reduce human health and environmental risks. The country is
in process of development and implementation of a regulatory, policy and enforcement system to
reduce POPs releases and to regulate POPs waste disposal; capacity building to reduce exposure and
releases of POPs; and collection, transport and disposal of POPS Pesticides.

Sustainable Land Management Program( Phase-II )

On successful results from phase-I, Phase-II of SLMP is being implemented in 14 dry land districts
of all four provinces since 2015. With funding support from UNDP, GEF, Federal PSDP, Provincial
ADPs, SLMP-II is assisting the Government of Pakistan in implementation of United Nations
Convention to Combat Desertification in order to achieve the long-term goals in Sustainable Land
Management (SLM).

Pakistan Environmental Protection Agency (PAK-EPA)

Pakistan Environmental Protection Agency (Pak-EPA) is mandated to enforce the Pakistan
Environmental Protection Act 1997 in the Islamabad Capital Territory. The following major
activities are being undertaken by Pak-EPA:

Air and Water Quality

 Pak-EPA had fixed and mobile automatic air quality monitoring stations. Pak-EPA is capable of
monitoring all the major parameters of air quality by mobilizing its mobile air quality station in
Islamabad as well as any part of the country.
 Data surveillance room to monitor steel industries air pollution in I-9 and I-10 industrial areas
during 2018-19. Three Steel industries installed state of art new air reverse bag houses system to
reduce air pollution.
 Drinking water quality checked by chemical and microbiological analysis of 25 filtration water
plants and municipal and waste water pollution monitoring of Industrial Effluent and other
Environmental Related Samples in ICT.
 Pak-EPA has established an Integrated Surveillance System to monitor ESBL producing E Coli
in the environment (water up streams, wet markets and sewerage system) of ICT
 Hospital Waste Management in Islamabad

Health-care facilities waste contains potentially harmful microorganisms that can infect hospital
patients, health workers and the general public. Under Section 31 of PEP Act 1997, based on the
Hospital Waste Management Rules, 2005, the current hospital waste management practices in both
public and private health care facilities are inspected by Pak-EPA in ICT.

Geomatic Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Development Project

Climate change is a geographic problem and reducing the risks caused by climate change is an
immense challenge. Presently, policy makers, developers, engineers, and many others around the

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world are using geographic information system (GIS) technology to understand a complex situation
and offer some tangible solutions in environment and climate change scenarios.

Through the support of Geomatic Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Development project
in Pakistan, Environmental Protection Agency Islamabad is one of the ventures under Ministry
Climate Change which encourages application of Satellite Remote Sensing (SRS), Geographical
Information System (GIS) and Geographical Positioning System (GPS) technologies in
environmental monitoring and decision-making.

Achievements
1. Digital Environmental Atlas of Islamabad
The Digital Environmental Atlas of Islamabad was launched under this project. The basic objective
of this Atlas is to enable the visualization of Islamabad’s environmental information through maps.
The spatial distribution of environmental indicators is extremely useful in several types of planning
including environmental pollution control strategies. Most importantly, through GIS techniques used
in preparing atlas maps, it is possible to combine various layers of information for identifying
different types of soil, land use, vegetation distribution, stream network etc.

2. Glacier Monitoring of Pakistan

Geomatic Center has taken the initiative of Glacier monitoring of Pakistan using GIS and Remote
sensing technology. Under this initiative, two glaciers i.e. Baltoro and Siachen were chosen for
monitoring purpose. Detailed analysis including stream network analysis, terrain analysis and change
detection was carried out for the years 1978 to 2018 using satellite imagery.

Achievements of Management Information System (MIS) 2018-19 are as follows:

 Establishment of Server room and deployment of Local Area Networking (LAN)

 Revamping of website through NITB, MoIT& Telecom

 Deployment of new Hi-tech server for Geomatic Center (Central Environmental Application)

Climate Change
GCISC shows that mean annual temperature has increased over Pakistan in the recent past with
greater increase in Sindh and Balochistan. The observed increase is higher in winter when compared
with summer. The month wise analysis shows that the maximum increase has been observed in
December and February. During the last century, the average temperature over Pakistan has
increased by 0.6°C, which is in conformity with the increase of average global temperature.
Similarly, mean annual precipitation has also shown increase over most parts of the country. The
increase is higher in summer as compared to winter with September and June showing the greatest
increase. Future climate change projections based on all the four IPCC-AR5 RCPs scenarios show
that the average rise in temperature over Pakistan by the end of the century will be about 1°C higher
compared to global average. Within the country, the northern regions will experience relatively more
warming than the south. This increase particularly in temperature is associated with a number of
adverse impacts, including the increasing frequency of extreme events (floods, droughts, heat waves,
and cyclonic activity), steady regression of most glaciers (except a small minority in the Karakorum
Range) that supply the bulk of the country's water supply and changes in the rainfall patterns.

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources

The primary effect of climate change is the disruption of the water cycle and it is important to
understand the impact that climate change is having on drinking water supplies, sanitation and food.

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In many regions around the world, incidence of hydrological extreme events is rising day by day.
However, in Pakistan it is in many different forms, especially flash flooding in mountainous streams
in the north. Analysis of the available long-term record (1969-2014) of annual total flow volumes
and annual maximum flows of the Indus River at Besham Qila (a flow gauging station upstream of
Tarbela dam), shows no statistical evidence of a significant and sustained change in the aggregate
average annual flows in the upper Indus Basin (UIB) upstream of Tarbela Dam. However, there is a
significant increase in the annual maximum flows. This has specially been found in the water
availability analysis of the Kabul River Basin, a snow melt-fed basin, where there is a sharper peak
with a clear shift in the annual peak flow by a month. Also, more increased frequency of larger
magnitude annual maximum flow events has come out as a key finding of this Kabul River Basin
study. Another modeling work focused on the Gilgit River Basin, a glacier-fed basin, revealed that
faster melting of glaciers under increased temperatures would bring more flows a month earlier but
with a flattened peak. More rigorous modeling analysis is currently going on to gain more clear
insight of the state and fate of Karakoram glaciers and associated impacts on the river flow regimes
in Pakistan.

Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture

Agriculture is one of the major sectors likely to be adversely affected by climate change. Climate
change can disrupt food availability, reduce access to food, and affect food quality. Projected
increases in temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, changes in extreme weather events, and
reductions in water availability may all result in reduced agricultural productivity. Crop simulation
models-based studies depicted significant reductions in wheat and rice yields in the arid, semi-arid
and rainfed areas of Pakistan under various IPCC climate change scenarios. In general, the increase
in temperature leads to a shortening of the Growing Season Length (GSL) for wheat and rice crops in
all regions of the country. The studies further report that South Eastern side of Pakistan is more
vulnerable to consecutive heat days stress during flowering and ripening stages of wheat. This
vulnerability is increasing both spatially and temporally to all the major wheat producing zones from
Lower Sindh to Potohar till end of 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathways
(RCPs i.e. RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). In the absence of a change in management practices and
technology, an overall reduction will be registered for all cereal crop yields.

Study on Smog in Punjab

Seasonal climatology plays a vital role in transport of different kinds of air pollutants affecting day-
to-day human activities. Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory(HYSPLIT) model
based findings have indicated that buildup of anthropogenic aerosols mainly has been taking place in
winter (December, January, February, March) and post-monsoon (October, November) for which
region wise point source locations were identified. It was found that 65 percent of the sources were
detected within Pakistan. Secondly, sectoral contribution of pollutants (NOx, SOx, PM 2.5, CO and
NMVOCs) based on the data of last 10 years (2008-17) was determined using the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodologies. The outcomes demonstrate the transport sector as
biggest contributor (43 percent) in total air pollutants emission in Punjab while the rice residue
burning adds just 20 percent. Besides, Industry and Power sectors hold 25 percent and 12 percent,
respectively. Overall, the energy sector occupies 80 percent of the total air pollutants emissions in
Punjab. The emissions of NOx, being main pollutant responsible for smog formation, are highest
from transport sector (58 percent). Industry and Power collectively holds 34 percent share in NOx
emissions while rice residue burning is just at 9 percent.

Zoological Survey of Pakistan

During the current financial year the baseline surveys of Deosai NP (GB), Machiara NP (AJ&K), Lal
Sohanra NP (Punjab) has been carried out. Wetlands of Punjab, Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
were visited for mid-winter waterfowl census during December and January in 2018- 2019. The data
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has been sent to Wetlands International. During the current financial year, the studies on Houbara
bustard and Indus Blind Dolphin were carried out. Both these studies are part of national level
survey, which will be completed in 2020.

Conclusion
Pakistan is facing environmental challenges, which include climate change impacts, loss of
biological diversity, deforestation and degradation of air and water quality. The present government
has launched Ten Billion Trees Tsunami Program (TBTTP) to lead the country towards aiming at
revival of forestry and control air, weather, wildlife, forestation, watershed management and soil
conservation to combat the negative impacts of climate change.

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