University of Santo Tomas

College of Science
Department of Biological Sciences

EXERCISE 3: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN A

REPRESENTATIVE AQUATIC ECOSYSTEM: UTILIZING LONG
TERM ECOLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL DATA

(Prepared by Jaycee Augusto G. Paguirigan and Rey Donne S. Papa)

INTRODUCTION

The climate of the Earth is always changing. In the past it has altered as a result of
natural causes. As early as the 20th century, the term climate change is generally used when
referring to changes in climate. These changes we've seen over recent years and those that
are predicted over the next 100 years are thought to be largely due to human behavior rather
than natural changes in the atmosphere.

The greenhouse effect is very important when we talk about climate change as it
relates to the gases, which keep the Earth warm. Although the greenhouse effect is naturally
occurring phenomenon, it is believed that it is intensified by human activity and emission
of gasses in the atmosphere, which poses the strongest threat. This is carried out by some
of the trace gases in the remaining 1% of the atmosphere which occur in relatively small
amount including water vapor; carbon dioxide (produced by burning fossil fuel); methane
(a byproduct of agriculture); nitrogen oxides (from car exhausts); ozone; CFCs
(chlorofluorocarbons from aerosol and refrigerators). Although the proportion of the trace
gases in the atmosphere appears relatively small, they can still have a big impact on climate
change.

Human activity causing changes in the environment leads to global warming. It is

said that the average temperatures have climbed about 1.4O around the world since 1880.
The IPPC (International Panel on Climate Control) reports that 11 of the past 12 years are
among the dozen warmest since 1850 marking 1998 as the warmest year in measured
history, with 2005 coming in second place. Readings taking from the ice wars show that
the greenhouses gases carbon dioxide and methane have reached their highest levels in the
past 420,000 years leading to melting of the Arctic sea ice in the last 30 years. In the last
century, the earth’s temperature has raised about 0.036 – 0.042O Celsius. Researchers
report that temperature will increase 0.3O Celsius by the end of the century.

Lakes are considered as sentinels of climate change (Adrian et al., 2009) and are
therefore excellent study ecosystems in order to better appreciate the impacts of climate
change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment both recognize the threats lake ecosystems face today. These mainly come
from global changes associated with the change.
 University of Santo Tomas
College of Science
Department of Biological Sciences

Lakes are considered as sentinels of climate change (Adrian et. al., 2009) and are
therefore excellent study ecosystems in order to better appreciate the impacts of climate
change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment both recognize the threats lake ecosystems face today. These mainly come
from global changes associated with the changing climate as well as increased
anthropogenic pressures (Papa and Briones, 2014).

Through this exercise, you will be exposed to utilizing archived data from various
sources in order to make your own analysis as to how climate conditions at the local or
regional level may have influenced the environmental conditions in one of the most
interesting lake ecosystems in the Philippines - Lake Taal for a given time period (2000-
2011).

OBJECTIVES

• To understand basic concepts, trends and issues in climate change science;

• To appreciate the ethical dimensions of climate change processes and their
impacts;
• To utilize available data sources for the study of climate change; and
• To identify the impacts of climate change to the environment.

MATERIALS

Personal Computer with Microsoft Excel

Local and Regional data of surface water temperatures (Lake Taal) and air temperatures
(Lake Taal and the Philippines)

Table 1. Monthly averages of surface water temperatures (in Celsius) in Lake Taal from
2000-2011

Months 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
January 27.92 - - - 26.07 27.5 25.0 - - 27.2 26.89 -
February 29.75 26.66 - 24.83 26.0 27.79 26.9 - 24.8 26.8 27.48 -
March 29.33 - 24.8 27.64 27.78 28.14 25.8 26.6 28.45 28.5 29.8 -
April 31.78 29.3 27.62 28 - 29 28.20 29.9 29.55 29.5 27.73 -
May 33.64 30.94 28.0 - 29.79 - 29 29.81 29.4 31.45 -
June 33.5 31.3 29.21 27.88 29.57 29 29.6 29.5 29.9 29.82 31.52
July 26.38 29.31 29.08 30.6 30.63 30 29.8 - 30.6 29.7 28.82 29.09
August 30.18 30.13 29 30.79 - 28 - 30.6 27.5 28.34 - 28.8
September 29.11 29.88 - 29.83 30.0 28.86 28.2 - 28.4 29.18 29.67 29.47
October 28.94 28.67 - 29.29 29.85 28.86 27.7 - 29.8 28.1 - 28.96
November 26.5 - - 29.07 28.7 27.86 26.7 - - 28.23 - 28.47
December - - - - 27.5 - - - - 27.68 - 28.08
 University of Santo Tomas
College of Science
Department of Biological Sciences

Table 2. Monthly averages of air temperatures (in Celsius) and amount of rainfall in Lake
Taal from 2000-2011

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Rain A Rain A Rain A Rain A Rain A Rain
Month A temp fall temp fall temp fall temp fall temp fall temp fall
1 26.40 44.3 26.62 32.7 26.48 0.1 - 2 26.32 9.2 25.51 15.3
2 26.60 79.4 26.49 51.4 26.22 4.5 - 0.1 26.88 28.4 26.44 8.7
3 27.50 73.6 27.86 18.1 28.00 2 28.42 0.1 27.65 2.4 27.55 7.9
4 29.10 35.8 29.10 18.7 29.72 5.6 29.98 5.6 29.53 21.6 28.84 29.4
5 27.90 220.6 29.53 209.9 29.79 49.4 29.12 346.9 29.00 92.7 29.91 54
6 28.20 156.8 27.82 291.2 29.11 216.9 27.84 107.2 27.32 270.3 28.74 145.7
7 26.60 429.3 27.27 206.4 27.76 652.3 28.14 232.9 27.36 314.6 28.13 131
8 27.10 278.7 26.96 390 27.76 131 27.99 230.6 27.20 302.1 27.45 338.2
9 27.00 395.5 27.90 80.1 27.42 198.1 27.50 229.9 27.93 72.6 27.69 264.1
10 27.10 399.1 28.04 76.2 - 129.5 27.88 39.8 27.12 82.4 27.80 255.3
11 26.90 210.1 26.75 167.9 - 61.1 27.65 129.9 26.68 190.5 27.69 54.8
12 26.40 133.5 26.16 100.2 - 35.2 25.82 9.2 26.15 45.8 26.10 240.3

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

A Rain A Rain A Rain A Rain A Rain A Rain
Month temp fall temp fall temp fall temp fall temp fall temp fall
1 26.52 80.1 26.57 17.4 26.92 64.9 25.63 34.2 26.52 6.5 26.30 21.2
2 27.26 6.1 26.98 5.7 26.64 29.1 27.42 72.9 27.52 1 26.60 0.1
3 28.32 26.8 28.19 11.2 28.20 18.5 28.67 29.8 28.28 6.5 26.40 37.6
4 29.21 5.4 29.84 2.9 29.41 30.7 28.99 97.5 29.65 11.5 - 10.3
5 29.04 202.7 29.99 122 28.13 187.2 28.65 351.5 28.78 30 - 138.5
6 29.09 197.9 29.41 71.5 28.69 436.5 28.38 220.3 29.06 147.6 27.70 513.2
7 27.89 308.2 28.79 111.3 28.27 120.9 28.11 213.4 28.37 398.2 27.60 351.3
8 27.40 202 27.95 404.1 27.82 177.1 28.39 185.4 28.27 136 27.70 334.6
9 28.24 349.9 28.09 253.2 28.03 224.8 27.59 584.8 28.52 67 27.90 199.7
10 27.28 45.9 27.70 130 28.45 142.5 27.76 267.3 28.13 279.5 27.80 177.5
11 28.34 99.6 26.78 287.9 28.05 58.1 27.76 60.9 27.78 84.2 27.60 137.4
12 27.04 200.6 27.31 117.6 26.31 68 26.29 10.1 27.12 45.4 26.90 143.4

PROCEDURES
 University of Santo Tomas
College of Science
Department of Biological Sciences

Ho (Null hypothesis):
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________

1. Based on the data listed in Table 1, create the most appropriate graph to show the
trends in water temperature changes in Lake Taal during the given time period.

2. Using the most appropriate statistical tool, look at possible changes in the surface
water temperatures of the lake. Are there any observable differences between the
mean annual and mean monthly temperatures in the lake?

3. Using the average monthly air temperature readings per month from 2000-2011
from PAGASA Ambulong Weather Station (a weather station located on the
northern shore of the lake), make a graph of 1) the air temperature and 2) rainfall
in Lake Taal from 2000-2011 and compare with the first graph. Your laboratory
instructors will provide you this data set.

4. Using the most appropriate statistical tool and software, generate a graph which
shows the relationship between the average air temperatures with the average
surface water temperatures in Lake Taal. Using the most appropriate statistical tool,
show how these two variables are related to one another. Which one should be the
assigned as the dependent variable, and the independent variable? Is the
relationship between the two variables significant?

5. Repeat procedures 3 & 4, but this time, gather the average monthly temperature
readings for the Philippines (during the same time period) from a valid online
source and use it to compare with the average surface water temperatures in Lake
Taal. Using the most appropriate statistical tool, show how these two variables are
related to one another. Which one should be the assigned as the dependent variable,
and the independent variable? Is the relationship between the two variables
significant?

6. Using a valid online source of meteorological data, plot the number and intensity
(in terms of windspeed) of typhoons / tropical storms that passed through the Lake
Taal region from 2000-2011. Do you find any noticeable trend?
 University of Santo Tomas
College of Science
Department of Biological Sciences

GUIDE QUESTIONS

1. Using the results, you have generated above, are the temperature changes in Lake
Taal responding strongly to changes in the local air temperature? What about the
regional air temperature? How can you interpret the statistical results you have
obtained from the analysis?
2. How do lakes respond to changes in climate? Cite examples based on studies that
have been conducted on other lake ecosystems.
3. What are the negative impacts of increasing temperatures to aquatic organisms?
Cite three examples which show aquatic flora or fauna that are negatively affected
by increasing temperatures.
4. Are there any noticeable trends in terms of rainfall in the vicinity and the
immediate area of Lake Taal?
5. How do human activities contribute to climate change and how do they compare
with natural influences?
6. What is the role of methane in influencing increases in global temperatures? What
are the various sources of methane in the planet? Do you know of any natural
means of controlling the amount of methane?
7. The Philippines is listed as one of the countries in the world most vulnerable to
climate change. Give at least five instances wherein one can see the impacts
brought about by climate change in the country.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

Data from the PAGASA Ambulong Weather Station and Lake Taal surface water
temperature were obtained from the M.Sc. thesis of Milette U. Mendoza, M.Sc. (B.Sc.
Biology batch 2013).

REFERENCES

Adrian, R., C. M. O’Reilly, H. Zagarese, S. B. Baines, D. O. Hessen, W. Keller, D. M.

Livingstone, R. Sommaruga, D. Straile and E. Van Donk. 2009. "Lakes as
sentinels of climate change." Limnology and Oceanography 54 (6 part 2): 2283-
2297

Gore, A. (2006) An Inconvenient Truth: The Planetary Emergency of Global Warming

and What We Can Do About It, Rodale Press, Emmaus PA.
 University of Santo Tomas
College of Science
Department of Biological Sciences

Hansen, J. (2010) Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth about the Coming Climate
Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity, Bloomsbury, New York.

Johansen, B. (2006) Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century, Praeger Publishers,

Westport CT.

Papa, RDS and JCA Briones (2014). Climate and Human-induced changes to lake
ecosystems: What we can learn from monitoring zooplankton ecology. Journal of
Environmental Science and Management. 17(1): 60-67

United Nations Development Programme (2007) Fighting Climate Change: Human

Solidarity in a Divided World: Human Development Report 2007-2008, Palgrave
Macmillan, Basingstoke, UK.