4.8.

Major Climate Variability

4.8.1. Temperature Variability of study area

In the period 1991-2020, the mean annual minimum temperature of the study area was ranged
between 7.70C and 19.80C. while mean annual maximum temperature of the study area varies
between 22.370C and 25.20C. The lowest mean annual maximum temperature record is in 2013
and the highest record is in 1994, 2003 and 2010. The mean annual average temperature of the
study area minimum, maximum and mean annual temperatures were 11.3°C, 24.3°C and 17.8°C,
respectively. The standard deviation and of minimum, maximum and mean annual temperatures
were 1.9°C 0.7°C and 1°C. Coefficient of variation of minimum, maximum and mean annual
temperatures was 16.5°C 2.7°C and 5.7°C. The trend coefficient variation (which is <20%)
shows less year-to-year variability of minimum, maximum and mean annual temperature in
study area over the study period. The result showed that decreasing trend of both minimum and
maximum temperature. In other words, minimum temperature was decreasing at a rate of
0.052ºC while maximum temperature decreasing at a rate of 0.054ºC per decade.

Table 22 Temperature analysis of climate variability

mean Min T Mean Max T Mean T

Minimum 7.69 22.37 15.58

Maximum 19.79 25.23 21.57

Mean 11.34 24.30 17.82

Standard Deviation 1.87 0.67 1.01

CV 16.50 2.74 5.67

4.8.2 Trend of temperatures in the study area

The trend equation and trend line of the mean annual minimum temperature over the past 30
years (1991 – 2020) generally shows a decreasing trend (-0.0168x), implying that the annual
minimum temperature has been significantly decreasing in the study area. The degree of
variation (R2 = 0.0063 or r=0.079), implying that there has been significant variation of
temperature within the area in the past 30 years (1991 – 2020). The trend equation and trend line
model of maximum temperature also generally shows a decreasing trend (-0.0045x) which
means that average maximum temperature has been decreasing. The degree of variation (R2
=0.35 or r = 0.59) shows that insignificant variability in maximum temperature in the area. The
trend equation and trend line of the annual average temperature over the past 30 years (1991 –
2020) generally shows an decreasing trend (-0.0307x), implying that the annual average
temperature has been significantly decreasing in the study area. The degree of variation (R2 =
0.07 or r = 0.86), implying that there has been insignificant variation of temperature within the
area in the past 30 years (1991 – 2020) (Figure 6).

Chart Title
30.0
25.0
f(x) = − 0.0446125324434552 x + 24.9942720306513
20.0 R² = 0.347720449944532
Tempreature

15.0 f(x) = − 0.0307230255839825 x + 18.2967624521073

R² = 0.0716176794887382
10.0 f(x) = − 0.0168335187245094 x + 11.5992528735632
5.0 R² = 0.00627225748795202
0.0
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Year

Mean Min T Linear (Mean Min T) Mean Max T

Linear (Mean Max T) Mean T Linear (Mean T)

Figure 6. annual temperatures variability

4.8.3. Rainfall Variability

The total annual rainfall in the study area from 1991-2020 showed that high inter-annual
variability and ranged between 201.2 mm as the minimum (the driest year) and 1250.7 mm as
maximum (the wettest year) for the last three decades (1991-2020). The mean average of the
annual rainfall, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation (CV) 485.4 mm 302.8 mm and
62% respectively. The largest value of coefficient of variation (CV> 30%) indicates that the
study area was experienced high interannual rainfall variability during the study period. The
analysis of annual rainfall trends of the last three decades (1991-2020) over the study area
showing that the rain is below the average in the year 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997,
1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007,2013, 2015, 2016 this show that
more than half of total years of the study periods are in shortage of rainfall

Minimu Maximum Mean Standard CV

m Deviation

Anuall 201.2 1250.7 485.416 302.8283 62.38524

Rainfall 7

4.8.4. Trend of Rainfall

The rainfall trend analysis shows some significant changes in the rainfall patterns over the past
30 years in study area. The trend equation and trend line of the annual rainfall over the past 30
years (1991 – 2020) generally shows an increasing trend (25.71x), implying that the annual
average rainfall has been increasing in the study area. The degree of variation (R2 = 0.558 or r =
0.76), implying that there has not been significant variation of rainfall within the area in the past
30 years (1991 – 2020). Analysis of annual rainfall for the past 30 years showed that the highest
annual rainfall amount occurred in 2013 (1250.7mm) and the lowest annual rainfall amount was
experienced in 2001 (211.4mm)

ANN
1400
1200
1000
800 f(x) = 25.7150834260289 x + 86.8328735632184
rainfall

R² = 0.558836244620014
600
400
200
0
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
year
.
Year JAN FEB MAR APR MA JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC ANN
Y

1991 0.1 10.3 50.1 22.8 28 4.9 31 39.8 37.4 9.7 0 17.4 251.5

1992 2.4 10 21.5 43.7 28 25.2 43.9 52 51 10.1 6.9 14.1 308.8

1993 36.1 5 0.8 58.5 46.5 11.2 22.7 42.7 26.4 23.7 0 0.4 274

1994 0 0 5.4 30.3 28.7 15.7 48 18.8 42.3 2.5 9.5 0 201.2

1995 0 7.4 29.8 76 17.3 8.3 53.5 55.4 30.7 4.6 0 4.4 287.4

1996 11.6 1.1 29.3 49.5 59.7 47.1 31.5 65 30.1 0.6 9.3 0.2 335

1997 1.3 0 25.9 30.9 39.7 25.9 47.7 31.6 19.5 70.9 28.3 3.8 325.5

1998 24 10.3 8.3 14.5 32.4 12.1 42.6 28.9 52.5 19.6 3 0 248.2

1999 0 1.4 35.1 20.6 20.8 24.6 43.3 73.5 35.2 47.4 2.8 1.6 306.3

2000 0 0 1.7 35.8 34.9 10.3 28.2 57 36.2 5.5 7.3 4.7 221.6

2001 0.1 2.5 20.8 19 42.1 16.2 39.5 64.8 22.3 5.8 0.1 0.2 233.4
 2002 8.5 0 26.4 28.2 13.1 15.2 30.9 42.1 25.8 11.4 0 9.8 211.4

2003 1.4 2 9.6 43.3 13 23.5 53.3 49.3 31.9 0 0.1 10.3 237.7

2004 16 0 8.7 72.2 4.9 16 26.6 30.6 37.2 12.8 11.3 1.4 237.7

2005 0.6 1 21.1 35 63.1 7.2 26.1 36.2 48.7 9.6 8.2 0 256.8

2006 0.8 8.6 15.5 54 33.8 19.5 42.4 65.1 40 33.5 4.7 27.3 345.2

2007 0 0.3 7 45.3 34.5 17.4 45.3 42.1 46 8.5 3.3 0 249.7

2008 1.6 0 0.8 13.6 46.3 24.9 49 48.6 44.1 11.3 21.7 0 261.9

2009 23.8 5.6 5.9 78.3 90.4 54.1 162.9 133.8 124.1 139.9 12.4 44.6 875.8

2010 2.7 41.9 79.4 123.8 73.1 75.2 144.6 178.2 170.8 5.3 54.9 0.6 950.5

2011 0 0.1 0.7 40.5 112.9 58.1 122.6 224.2 162.3 0 11.5 0 732.9

2012 0 0 13.5 56.9 50.6 73.8 166.4 149.9 108.9 4.1 6.8 6.9 637.8

2013 2.3 0 159.9 171.7 122.5 14.8 215.8 186.6 141.9 156.5 78.7 0 1250.
7

2014 0 0.8 51.3 88.2 147.8 18.9 141.9 175.3 150.5 88.1 5.5 0 868.3

2015 0 0 32.4 76.2 178.8 89.6 15.5 162.5 52.2 7.9 4.6 0.4 620.1

2016 0.2 2.2 2 147.1 32.1 88.3 158.6 38.1 160.4 11.7 13.8 6.7 661.2

2017 0 36.6 11.6 51.7 48.9 21.4 142.7 134.6 64.7 14.9 0.4 0 527.5

2018 0 12.2 26.3 85.5 80.4 76.3 80.5 288.9 126.1 72.6 28.3 0 877.1

2019 0 0 30.5 45.2 117.9 49.2 124.5 141.8 137.1 56.2 12.3 0 714.7

2020 0 0 40.2 166.1 238.6 84.1 183.6 164.2 127.7 26.9 21.2 0 1052.
6

Max t

Year JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC ANN

1991 24.9 24.8 25.3 23.7 22.3 23.4 24.7 24.9 23.6 22.9 23.4 24.4 24.0

1992 27 26 25.5 24.8 23.7 23.9 23.9 24.6 23.9 23.4 22.7 23.5 24.4

1993 27.1 24.5 25.1 24.6 24.7 25 25.1 24.7 24.4 23.5 24.3 26.6 25.0
1994 27.4 26.4 25.8 25 24.7 25 25.1 24.7 24.4 23.7 25.3 25.2 25.2

1995 24.7 24.9 25.1 25.4 22.6 23.7 24.9 25.2 24.4 24.2 25.2 26.9 24.8

1996 25.8 25.1 23.7 23 23.7 24.6 25.3 25.5 24.2 23.9 24.8 26 24.6

1997 25.1 24.9 25.1 23.9 24.3 24.7 25.3 23.7 22.7 23.6 24.4 24.9 24.4

1998 26.9 26 26.8 25.6 23.6 24.1 23.9 24.6 23.9 23.6 24.9 26 25.0

1999 24.3 26.3 26 25.4 22.6 23.3 24.1 23.2 23.1 22.7 23.1 26.1 24.2

2000 25.2 25.8 25 24.8 23 23.9 24.3 24.4 23.8 23.1 22.8 25.6 24.3

2001 25.6 25.2 25.8 26 24 24.4 24.1 25.1 24.4 22.4 24.4 26.1 24.8

2002 27.1 25.3 26.4 23.9 23.1 23.8 24.4 25.6 24.2 23.6 23.4 25.2 24.7

2003 25.4 25 26.2 24.4 24.3 24.9 24.2 25 24.3 24.2 25.6 28.4 25.2

2004 27.4 25 24.9 24.9 24.2 24.7 24.6 25.9 24 24 25.1 25.5 25.0

2005 24.4 24.5 25.6 25 23.1 23.4 24.3 23.5 23.3 22 23.9 26.3 24.1

2006 26.7 25.1 25.5 24.1 23.8 23.7 24 24.8 23.4 23.4 24.3 24.9 24.5

2007 27.2 25.3 24.6 24.7 22.6 23.3 24.1 23.2 22.7 22.9 23.8 26.2 24.2

2008 25.7 26 26 25.4 22.5 23.3 24.1 23.2 23.1 22.6 24.3 23.9 24.2

2009 24.8 24.4 25.2 24.7 22.2 23.6 24.7 25.5 24 23 24.8 26.2 24.4

2010 26.7 26.6 25 25.3 24 24.1 25.6 25.7 24.2 23.4 24.7 26.5 25.2

2011 27.3 25.7 26.5 24.5 23.2 24 24.3 25.1 24.8 24.4 24.6 27.2 25.1

2012 24.9 24.8 25.7 24.5 22.7 24 24.3 24.6 23 22.6 24.6 26.5 24.4

2013 23.5 23.4 24.3 25.2 23.6 21.7 22.6 22.9 22 14 23.1 22.1 22.4

2014 23.4 22.8 24.2 25.6 24.4 21.5 22.8 21.9 23.6 25.2 23.8 24.5 23.6

2015 23.6 22.4 22.6 25.4 24.2 23 23.8 23.8 23.8 24 23.8 26.2 23.9

2016 22.6 22.8 23.8 24.2 24.8 25.2 24.1 21 23.4 24.3 24.6 25 23.8

2017 22.1 23.6 22.8 24.5 23.8 22.8 22.8 23.4 22.8 23.4 24.1 24 23.3

2018 22.6 24.2 23.4 25.1 24.2 21.1 22.5 23.6 22.5 23.2 24.5 23.4 23.4

2019 25 23.5 23.7 23.6 26.2 21.7 22.9 23.6 22.1 24.3 22.5 24.6 23.6
 2020 23.8 24.3 24.1 24.8 27.1 26.2 24.3 21.6 20.6 20.6 21.4 22.9 23.5

Min t

Year JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC ANN

1991 9.5 10.7 11.9 12.4 12.5 12.8 12.6 12.9 12.7 9.5 8 8.2 11.1

1992 10.6 12.2 12.6 13.3 14 13.9 13 12.9 11.8 9.7 8.1 9.8 11.8

1993 11 9.4 10.2 13.3 12.4 13.2 12 12.3 11.8 10.5 7.5 6.2 10.8

1994 6.6 7.9 11.2 13.2 13.2 14.3 12.9 12.4 11.9 9.1 7.5 6.9 10.6

1995 7.7 11.3 12.3 13.2 13.1 13.5 13.2 13.4 13 9.5 7.5 8.6 11.4

1996 9.2 10.2 12.5 13.3 13.6 13.6 13.2 13.1 12.5 9.5 8.2 7.6 11.4

1997 9.3 8.9 12.3 12.8 13 13.8 13.6 13.6 13.3 11.6 10.9 7.5 11.7

1998 11.2 11.4 13.2 12.8 14 14.2 14 14 13.2 10.7 7.7 6.9 11.9

1999 8.7 9.7 12.6 12.9 13.6 13.6 13.1 13.2 12.8 11.1 7.6 7.2 11.3

2000 7.3 8.9 10.9 13.1 14 13.5 13 12.9 13.1 10 9 8.4 11.2

2001 8.7 9.4 13.1 12.9 13.6 13.3 13.2 12.8 12.5 10.6 7.9 8.1 11.3

2002 9.9 9.6 12.2 13.4 13.9 13.8 13.5 13.5 13.2 11.2 8.6 10.7 12.0

2003 9.4 11.3 12.2 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.4 9.8 9.5 8.6 11.9

2004 10.7 8.9 11.1 13.9 13.2 13.8 13.2 13.6 13 10.6 8.1 9.5 11.6

2005 9.5 10.9 13 12.7 13.9 14.2 13.3 13.3 13 9.9 8.6 6.4 11.6

2006 9.2 11.1 12 12.7 13.4 14.1 13.3 13.4 12.8 12.1 8.5 10.4 11.9

2007 9.2 10.4 11.6 13.4 14 13.9 13.5 13.6 13 9.5 7.9 6.7 11.4

2008 8.7 9 9.3 13.2 14 13.7 13.1 13.1 13 10.4 8.6 6.3 11.0

2009 9.2 10.3 12.2 13.2 13.6 13.8 13.2 13.2 12.8 10.3 8.3 9.6 11.6

2010 8.6 11.8 12.3 13.9 14.9 14.7 13.6 13.8 13.2 10.1 9.4 7.4 12.0

2011 9.6 10.2 10.9 13.7 13.5 14.5 13.7 13.6 13.1 9.8 9.4 7.5 11.6

2012 8.5 8.6 10.7 12.6 13.1 13.8 13.3 13.7 13 10.3 9.1 9.5 11.4
 2013 10.3 10.6 12.4 12.5 12.8 12.2 11.4 11.1 11.2 7.5 10.2 7.2 10.8

2014 9.8 7.6 12.3 11.2 13.2 12.1 10.5 10.1 9.8 6.9 5.5 6.5 9.6

2015 7.6 9.8 12.3 10.5 13.1 12.3 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.1 7.6 9.1 10.3

2016 7.2 7.8 12.4 11.3 12.8 12.5 11.6 10.3 11.3 9.5 9.8 7.1 10.3

2017 9.2 6.8 12.6 11.4 13.5 124 12.1 12.1 11.6 8.4 10.2 5.6 19.8

2018 9.5 9.5 13.4 10.8 12.4 12.9 10.5 11.2 9.8 10.1 11.3 3.4 10.4

2019 8.4 -1.6 8 11.2 10.9 11.2 11.5 10.5 11.6 10.6 10.4 1.8 8.7

2020 7.6 7.8 9.8 10 10.5 10.8 11.4 12.8 11.7 0.6 -0.3 -0.4 7.7

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