STAT110

Biostatistics
Lecturer: Sabriye Topal KARANFİLLER
Office: ST249
Email: skaranfiller@ciu.edu.tr
Textbook:
Wayne W. Daniel, BIOSTATISTICS: Basic Concepts and Methodology for the
Health Sciences, 9th ed., Wiley
Probability
1. Introduction to Probability Theory
• Introduction to SETs
• Complement of set
• Null set
• Subset of a set
• Venn diagram representation of a set
• SET Operations
• equality
• union
• intersection
What is probability?
Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood that an event will occur.

Ex:
• What is the probability of raining today?
• What is the probability of getting 6 when you roll a die?
• What is the probability of getting head when you flip a coin?

Notation: The probability of an event E is written P(E) and pronounced “Probability of E”

• Scale: 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1
• If P(E) = 0, event E cannot occur
• If P(E) = 1, event E is certain to occur.

• Set theory provides a useful vehicle for presenting and discussing probability concepts.
 Introduction to SETs
Keywords: Set, element, enumeration method, descriptive property
method

• SET: A well-defined collection of data (object).

• ELEMENT: The object which belong to a set.
In a set, elements have same properties...
Introduction to SETs (cont.)
• We designate a set name by an UPPERCASE (CAPITAL) letter.
• Ex: A, B, C, ......X, Y
• Brances/brackets are used to group the elements of the set A.
• Ex: If A is the set of positive numbers less than 12,
A= { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11}

• The elements of the set are usually denoted by small letters

• EX: a,b,c, x, ....
Membership in a set is usually defined in one of two ways:
• Enumeration method : simple lists of all elements on a set.
• is convenient when the number of elements in a set is small or when it is not easy or not
possible to define a property which specifies the requirements for membership in the
set.

Ex: Set of positive odd integers, where all elements in the set are less then 10.
A= {1, 3, 5, 7, 9}

• Descriptive property method: the set is defined by stating the property

required for membership in the set.

Ex: A= {1, 3, 5, 7, 9} can be written as

A= {a/ a is a positive odd integer less than 10}.
A is the set consisting of elements a such that a is .......
Example:
• Consider the set A which contains positive even integers having a value
less than 12 to define such set. Use two methods to define set A;
i. A= {2, 4, 6, 8, 10} representation by enumeration method
ii. A= {x/ x is a positive even integer less than 12} representation by Descriptive
property method

• Which implies that: "A is the set consisting elements x such that x is a positive
even integer have a values less then 12”
EX: Redefine the following set using the enumerative method

Example : A= { a/ a is negative odd integers greater than -10}

Solution: A = {-9, -7, -5, -3, -1}

Example : B= { b/ when a=2, a+3b=7}

Solution: a=2 => 2+3b=7,

3b=5, b=5/3
B= {5/3}
 • Definition: To indicate that an object e is a member of a set “S” is
represented as :
𝑒∈𝑆
On the other hand if f is not an element of “S”, then represented as
𝑓∈𝑆

Example : B= {2, 4, 6, 8, 10}

2 ∈ 𝐵,
1∈𝐵

The number of elements in a set “S”, is denoted by n(S).

For example in the above example, n(B)= 5
 Special Sets
Universal Set: the universal set can be defined as U. U is the set which
contains all possible elements within a particular application under
consideration.

Example : Consider the students of CIU,

U= {u/ u is a student in CIU} , universal set
one set might consists of the students from management department.
A= {x/ x is a student in management department in CIU}
Another set might consist of students which are from engineering department.
B= {b/ b is a student which is from engineering department in CIU}
 Complement of Set:
• The complement of set S is the set of all elements in the universal set
that are not members of the set S.
• The complement of set S is denoted by S’ or Sc.

Example : A= {x/ x is a student from management department of CIU}

Complement of A : A’= {b/ b is a student which is not from management department of CIU}
Example :
If U= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10} and

B= {b/ b is positive even integers less then 10}

What is the complement of B?

B={2, 4, 6, 8}
Solution
B’={1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 10}
Null (empty) Set
• The empty or null set is the set consisting of no elements and is
denoted by Ø.
Example : If U is the set consisting of all positive integers and
T equals the set of all positive integers, define T’ (complement of T)

Solution U={2, 4, 6, 8, .....} ,

T={2, 4, 6, 8, ....}

Since T and U define the same set, T’ is the set with no elements;
T’= Ø
Example : Consider the system of equations below, determine the solution set, S.
4𝑥 + 3𝑦 = 10
4𝑥 + 3𝑦 = −5

Solution Since there are no values for x and y which satisfy both equations,
the solution set S, for the system of equations is the null set,
S= Ø or

S= {(x,y)/ 4𝑥 + 3𝑦 = 10 and 4𝑥 + 3𝑦 = −5} = Ø

 Subset of a set
• A set A is a subset of a set B if and only if every element of set A is
also an element of set B.
• This subset relation is denoted as A ⊂ B.
• Note: by definition, the null set, Ø is a subset of every set .
Example : Given sets;
A={1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}
B={1, 3, 5, 7, 9} , D= {5}

C={x/ x is a real number},

Solution A⊂C
D={z/ z-1=4} B⊂C D⊂B⊂A⊂C
Write down the subset relations... D⊂C
Example : Given sets;

A={a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h}

B={ a, b, c },
C={ d, ı, j },

D={ e, f, g }

E={ j }
Write down the subset relations

B⊂A,
C⊂A,
Solution
D⊂A,
E⊂C
 Venn Diagram Representation of Sets
• Venn Diagrams are conventional way of envisioning sets and sets
relationships. In a Venn diagram circles are used to represents subsets
of a set U (denoted by a large rectangle)
U
A

Venn diagram of Set A Venn diagram of universal set

Remarks:
• A ⊂ A and

• Ø ⊂A
 Universe (U): Real numbers
??? So check the following statements and answer them whether they are true
or false.
T A. Rational and Irrational Numbers are disjoint/discrete sets.
F B. Whole Numbers are the subset of Natural Numbers.
F C. The difference of Integer Numbers from Whole numbers includes Positive
Numbers.
T D. The complement of Natural numbers includes Irrational Numbers.
Set Operations
• Equality of Set
Two sets A and B are equal if and only if (iff) every element of A is an
element of B and every element of B is an element of A.
A=B iff A ⊂ B and B ⊂ A
• If A and B are not equal, it is denoted by 𝐴 ≠ 𝐵
 Example : Given the following sets, determine whether any sets are equal
A={1, 2},
B={1, 2, 3} ,
C={ x/ (x-1)(x-2)(x-3)=0 },
D={z / 𝑧 2 − 3𝑧 + 2 = 0}

A={1, 2}, B={1, 2, 3} ,

C={1, 2, 3},
x-1=0 x=1
x-2=0 x=2
x-3=0 x=3
Solution
(z-1)(z-2)=0, z=1, z=2
D= {1, 2}

A=D
B=C
• Union of Sets
The union of sets A and B, defined by 𝐀 ∪ 𝐁 is a subset of U that
contains elements that are in A, or in B, or possibly in both.
𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑥 ∈ 𝑈 | 𝑥 ∈ 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝑥 ∈ 𝐵, 𝑜𝑟 𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ

A B
Some facts about the union:
• 𝐴∪∅=𝐴
• 𝐴∪𝐴=𝐴
• 𝐴∪𝐵 =𝐵∪𝐴
• 𝐴′ ∪ 𝐴 = 𝑈 (the union of the set A and its complement result in the
universal set U)
Example : Given the following sets, find
a. A ∪ B
b. A ∪ C
c. B ∪ C
A={1, 2, 3, 4, 5}, B={1, 3, 5, 7, 9} , C={ 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 },

a. A U B ={1, 2, 3, 4, 5} U {1, 3, 5, 7, 9} = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9}

Solution b. A ∪ C = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5} U { 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 } = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10}
c. B ∪ C={1, 3, 5, 7, 9} U { 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 }= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}
Intersection of Sets
• The intersection of two sets A and B denoted by A∩B, is the set of all
elements which belong to both A and B. (common elements of the
sets)

A B
 𝐴∩𝐵 =∅ 𝐴∩𝐵 =𝐵
(A and B are disjoint sets with no common elements. )
Example : Given the following sets, find
a. A ∪ C
b. B ∩ C
c. A ∩ B ∪ C
A={1, 3, 5, 7, -1, -3, -5, -7}, B={-3, -2, -1, 0, 1, 2, 3} , C={ -4, -3, -1, 2, 4 },

a. A U C= {1, 3, 5, 7, -1, -3, -5, -7} U { -4, -3, -1, 2, 4 } = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7,9, -1,-2,-3, -5, -7}

Solution b. B ∩ C = {-3, -2, -1, 0, 1, 2, 3} ∩ { −4, −3, −1, 2, 4 } ={-3,-1, 2}

c. A ∩ B U C =(A ∩ B) ∪ C = {-3, -1, 1, 3} U{ -4, -3, -1, 2, 4 }={-1, -3, 1, 2, 3, 4 }

 Some other properties of Sets
• A ∩ A′ = ∅
• A∩U=A

U U
A B A’

No intersection
A’

Red shadede region is complement of A, A’

Example: given U={ x/ x is a positive integer less than or equal to 10}
A={1, 2, 3, 4}
B={ 2, 4, 6, 8}

• Draw the Venn diagram and find the results of the following sets
• A’
• B’
• A UB
• A∩B
• AUA’
• A′ ∩ B′
• 𝐴 ∩ A′
• A′ ∪ B′
Random process (experiment)
•Random experiment
•is a process which results in one of a number of possible outcomes.

Example:
•Flipping/tossing a coin
•Rolling a die
•Drawing a card from a desk
•Selecting a ball from a box which contain number of balls
•Examining the number of products whether it is defective or non
defective.
Trial
•Each repetition of an experiment can be thought as a trial.
•Each trial has an observable outcome.
Sample space

•Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is

called a Sample space. It is represented by the symbol “S”.
•It’s desirable to use the sample space that gives the most information
concerning the outcomes of the experiment
•Sample Point:Each outcome in a sample space is called an element or
a sample point of the sample space. (sample outcome)
•number of possible outcomes of an experiments is represented as
n(S).
Overview:
• Counting techniques:
• multiplication rule,
• permutation,
• combination,
Counting techniques:
Multiplication Rule - The fundamental principle of counting
• If an operation can be performed in n1 ways, and if for each of these a
second operation can be performed in n2 ways, then the two operations
can be performed together in n1 x n2 ways. There are n1 x n2 possible
combined outcome.
• (with the assumption that the outcome in the first experiment does not
effect the outcome of the second experiment.)
• If k operations will be performed these k operation can be performed
simultaneosly in
𝒏𝟏 × 𝒏𝟐 × ⋯ × 𝒏𝒌 ways
• Ex. If we refer to the drawing of a six-digit lottery number, the drawing of each digit is an
experiment with 10 possible outcomes. What is the number of possible outcomes.
Solution: 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 --- 10 different letter

1
2
n1
...
6
10 n1 × n2 × ⋯ × n6 =
10 × 10 × 10 × 10 × 10 × 10 = 10
1
2
n2
..
10
1
2
n3
...
10
1
2
n4
...
10
1
2
n5
...
10
1
2
n6
...
10
 Ex: How many breakfasts consisting of a drink and a sandwich are possible if we can
select from 3 drinks and 4 kinds of sandwiches?

Solution : n1 = 3 and n2 = 4 , therefore there are

n1× n2 = 3x4 =12 different ways to choose a breakfast.

Ex: A certain shoe comes in 5 different styles with each style available in 4 distinct colors. If the store
wishes to display pairs of these shoes showing all of its various styles and colors, how many different pairs
would the store have on display?
Solution : n1 = 5 and n2 = 4 , 5 x 4 = 20 different pairs are available.
• Ex: Determine the number of possible seven-digit telephone number if none of the
first three digits can equal to zero and:
a) Any digit can be used for the remaining numbers
b) The first digit must be odd, alternating after that between even and odd digits (assume that
zero is even)
c) All digits must be even
d) No digit can be repeated.

• Solution: To answer this you have to understand that there are seven experiments
and combined outcomes gives the seven digit number.
• Experiments are selecting number for each digit.
• The set which the numbers are selected for the digits is {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9}
•

d1 d2 d3 d4 d5 d6 d7

*The restriction is that the first three digits are non-zero.

PERMUTATION: A permutation is an ordered arrangement of a set of items.

Ex: Consider the three numerals 1, 2, and 3. The permutation of these three numbers are

1 2 3, 1 3 2, 2 1 3, 2 3 1, 3 1 2, 3 2 1 => totally 6 arrangements

Permutation Rule: The number of permutations of size n that can be formed from the n individuals or objects in a group
will be denoted by nPn or P(n,n) where
nPn=n x (n-1)x (n-2) x .….x 2 x 1=n!

In general, n distinct object can be arranged in n! ways.

! factorial notation
0!=1
1!=1
2!=2.1=2
3!=3.2.1=6
…
10!=10.9.8. … . 2. 1= 3628800
n!= n(n-1)(n-2). … . 3. 2. 1
In the previous example : the number of permutations of three numbers 1, 2, and 3 taken three at a time is

3P3=3!=3. 2. 1=6

Permutation counting:
• The number of permutations of n different objects taken r at a time, is
denoted by 𝑛𝑃𝑟 where,
𝑛!
𝑃(𝑛, 𝑟) = 𝑛𝑃𝑟 =
𝑛−𝑟 !
•
Ex: List 2 permutations of 4 letters A, B, C, D
Solution:
• 1. Way: listing elements
• 2. Way: multiplication rule
• 3. Permutation rule
Ex: In how many ways can a Society schedule 3 speakers for 3 different meetings if they are
available on any of 5 possible dates?

Solution : The total number of possible schedules is

5! 5.4.3.2.1
5𝑃3 = = = 60
5−3 ! 2.1

Ex: Four football teams, Team 1, Team 2 , Team 3, Team 4 are competing in a tournament. Assuming
no ties, how many different end-of tournament ranking are possible.

Solution:
# of rankings= 4𝑃4 = 4.3.2.1 = 𝟐𝟒 end-of tournament ranking

Also you may get this using tree- diagram…

 Theorem . The number of distinct permutations of n things of which n1 are of one kind, n2 of a second
kind ,…, nk of a kth kind is

Ex: How many different ways can 3 red, 4 yellow, and 2 blue bulbs be arranged in a string of Christmas tree
lights with 9 sockets?
Solution : The total number of distinct arrangements is
9!
= 1260
3! 4! 2!
COMBINATION
• An unordered subset is called a combination.

Theorem: the number of combinations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is

𝑛 𝑛!
𝐶 𝑛, 𝑟 = 𝑛𝐶𝑟 = = pronounced as “n choose r”
𝑟 𝑟! 𝑛−𝑟 !

• Permutations are dealing with the number of different ways in which set of items
can be arranged. A combination is a set of items with no consideration given to
the order or arrangement of the items.
• In combination one is interested only in which individuals or objects selected.
𝑛𝑃𝑟 > 𝑛𝐶𝑟
Ex: In how many ways can a teacher select 3 students in a class of 25 students.

Solution: Order of the students is not important. Combination….

n= # of total item, r=# of selected item
25 25! 25.24.23
25𝐶3 = = 3! = = 2300 ways
3 25−3 ! 3.2.1

Ex: From 4 mathematicians and 6 computer scientists, find the number of committees that can be
formed consisting of 2 mathematicians and 4 computer scientists.

Solution:

4 6 4! 6!
= . = 2.3.3.5 = 90
2 4 2! 4−2 ! 4! 6−4 !
Ex: In one year, three awards (research, teaching and service) will be given to class
of 25 students in a statistics department. If each student can receive at most one
award, how many possible selection are there.

Solution: n= # of total students

r= # of students that will take award
25!
permutation counting: 25𝑃3 = = 25.24.23 = 13800
25−3 !
• 2nd way multiplication rule:
• 1st award 2nd award 3rd award
25 x 24 x 23 = 13800
• 25𝑃3 > 25𝐶3
Some Properties of combination:
𝑛 𝑛
• = , 𝑟≤𝑛
𝑟 𝑛−𝑟
𝑛 𝑛
• = =1
0 𝑛
𝑛
• =𝑛
1

Ex:
7 7 7
• = =
3 7−3 4
5 5
• = =1
0 5
Ex: List 2 combinations of 4 letters, A, B, C, D

Solution: order of letters is not important in combination, choosen

object is important
AB AC AD BC BD CD

4 4!
= = 3.2 = 6
2 2! 4 − 2 !
Ex: From a group of 4 men and 5 women, how many committees of size 3 are possible
• (a) with no restrictions?
• (b) with 1 man and 2 women?
• (c) with 2 men and 1 woman if a certain man must be on the committee?
Solution: arrangement/ order not important
a) Total # of candidate, n= 4+5=9
# of selected candidate, r= 3
9 9! 9.8.7
= = = 84
3 3! 9 − 3 ! 3.2.1
b) There is a restriction=> 1 man, 2 woman
First operation- choose man---- n=4, total # of men
4
r=1 # of selected man 𝑛1 =
1
2nd operation- choose 2 women--- n=5, total # of women
5
r=2 𝑛2 =
2

4 5 5! 5.4
. = 4. = 4. = 40
1 2 2! 5 − 2 ! 2
c) There is restriction => 2 men, 1 woman, but certain man must be in commitee
• Choose 1 man among 3 other men
• Choose 1 woman among 5 women
3 5
. = 3.5 = 15
1 1
Ex: From a group of 4 men and 5 women, how many committees of size 3 are possible
• (a) with no restrictions?
• (b) with 1 man and 2 women?
• (c) with 2 men and 1 woman if a certain man must be on the committee?
Solution: arrangement/ order not important
a) Total # of candidate, n= 4+5=9
# of selected candidate, r= 3
9 9! 9.8.7
= = = 84
3 3! 9 − 3 ! 3.2.1
b) There is a restriction=> 1 man, 2 woman
First operation- choose man---- n=4, total # of men
4
r=1 # of selected man 𝑛1 =
1
2nd operation- choose 2 women--- n=5, total # of women
5
r=2 𝑛2 =
2

4 5 5! 5.4
. = 4. = 4. = 40
1 2 2! 5 − 2 ! 2
c) There is restriction => 2 men, 1 woman, but certain man must be in commitee
• Choose 1 man among 3 other men
• Choose 1 woman among 5 women
3 5
. = 3.5 = 15
1 1