STAT110

Biostatistics
Lecturer: Sabriye Topal KARANFİLLER
Office: ST249
Email: skaranfiller@ciu.edu.tr
Textbook:
Wayne W. Daniel, BIOSTATISTICS: Basic Concepts and Methodology for the
Health Sciences, 9th ed., Wiley
 Probability
Probability is the chance for the occurence of an event.
Definition: To find the probability of an event A, we sum all the possibilities assigned to the sample points in A.
• Suppose that an experiment has associated with it a sample space S. A probability is a numerically valued
function that assigns a number P(A) to every event A so that the following axioms hold:
1. 0 ≤ 𝑃 𝐴 ≤ 1
Probability closer to “0” is assigned to an event that is not likely to occur
Probability closer to “1” is assigned to an event that is quite likely too occur.

2. P(S) =1 (Probability of sure event is “1”)

P(∅)=0 (Probability of null event is “0”)

3. If A1 , A2 ,...,An is a sequence of mutually exclusive events

(i.e. Ai Aj for any i j ), then

𝑃 𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 ∪ ⋯ ∪ 𝐴𝑛 = 𝑃 𝐴1 + 𝑃 𝐴2 + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐴𝑛 )
Ex: A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that at least one head occurs?

Solution:
The sample space for this experiment is S  {HH, HT, TH, TT}.

If the coin is balanced, each of these outcomes would be equally likely to occur. Therefore
we assign a probability w to each sample point.
Then 4w=1 or w=1/4.

If A represents the event of at least one head occurring, then

A= {HH , HT, TH}

1 1 1 3
𝑃 𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐻𝐻 + 𝑃 𝐻𝑇 + 𝑃(𝑇𝐻) = + + =
4 4 4 4
• Theorem: If an experiment can result in any one of N different equally
likely outcomes, and if exactly n of these outcomes correspond to
event A , then the probability of event A is,
𝑛 Size of A
𝑃 𝐴 =
𝑁 Size of S

Ex: If E is the event that a number less than 4 occurs on a single toss of the die, find the P(E). Note: A die is fair.

Solution:
fair die all the outcomes has equal probability
S= { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} P(S)=1
1
w w wwww  6w=1 , w=
6
E event (number less than 4) => E= { 1, 2, 3}

P(E)=P(1)+P(2)+P(3)
1 1 1 3
𝑃 𝐸 = + + =
6 6 6 6
Ex: In previous example change the note as : A die is loaded (not fair) in such a way that; an even
number is twice likely to occur as an odd number.
Solution:
S= { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} P(S)=1
1
w 2w w 2w w 2w w+2w+w+2w+w+2w= 9w=1 , 𝑤=9
1
probability for each odd number- 𝑤 =
9
2
probability for each even number- 2𝑤 =
9

E= { 1, 2, 3}
P(E)=P(1)+P(2)+P(3)
1 2 1 4
𝑃 𝐸 =9+9+9=9
Ex: Let A be the event that an even numbers turns up and Let B the event that a number divisible by 3
occurs. (Note that: A die is loaded (not fair) in such a way that; an even number is twice likely to occur as an
odd number)
Find 𝐏 𝐀 ∪ 𝐁 and 𝐏 𝐀 ∩ 𝐁

Solution: A={ 2, 4, 6} B={ 3, 6}

𝑨 ∪ 𝑩 ={ 2, 3, 4, 6}
𝑷 𝑨 ∪ 𝑩 = P 2 + P 3 + P 4 + P(6)
2 1 2 2 7
+ + + =
9 9 9 9 9

𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 = { 6}
2
𝑷 𝑨∩𝑩 =P 6 =
9
Additive Rules
Theorem 1: If A and B are two events, then
P A ∪ B = P A + P B − P(A ∩B)

Ex: IF A and B events are A={2, 4, 6} and B={3, 6} respectively, find P A ∪ B for loaded die
as in previous example.
2 2 2 6
Solution: P(A)=P(2)+P(4)+P(6)= + + =
9 9 9 9
1 2 3
P(B)=P(3)+P(6)= + =
9 9 9
2
P A∩B =P 6 =
9
6 3 2 7
P A∪B = + − =
9 9 9 9

Theorem 2: If A, B and C are three events, then

P A ∪ B ∪ C = P A + P B + P C − P A ∩ B − P A ∩ C − P B ∩ C + P(A ∩ B ∩ C)
• Ex: What is the probability of getting total 7 or 11 when a pair of fair
dice are tossed?
 Remark: IF A and B are ‘mutually exclusive’ or ‘disjoint’ event then
P A ∪ B = P A + P B − P(A ∩B) but P A ∩ B = ∅ then
P A∪B =P A +P B

Definition: A collection of events A1 , A2 , ...., An of a sample space S, is called a partition of

S if A1 , A2 , ...., An are mutually exclusive events and
𝑛

𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 ∪ … ∪ 𝐴𝑛 = 𝐴𝑖 = 𝑆
𝑖=1
A1 A2 ...... An
P A1 ∪ A2 ∪ … ∪ An = P A1 + P A2 +....+P An
• Theorem 3: If A and A’ are complementary events, then
P A + P A′ = 1
P A = 1 − P A′
P A′ = 1 − P A

Example: Experiment: Rolling a die. Let A be an event that getting 6. What is the probability of
getting the different number from 6?

Solution:
S= { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Event A: Getting 6, A= { 6}

Event A’: Getting different number from 6, A’= { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5}

1 1 5 1 1 1 1 1 5
𝑃 𝐴 = then 𝑃 𝐴′ = 1 − = or 𝑃 𝐴′ = + + + + =
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
• Ex: According to following table find the probability of 3 or more storm occur in the next year. P(3 or more)=?
n- Number of storm P(n)
0 0,10
1 0,25
2 0,3
3 0,2
>3 0,15

• Solution: P(3 or more)= P(3 ∪ (𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 3))= P(3)+P(more than 3)

= 0.2 + 0,15= 0,35
Probability of less than 3 storm occur?
This event is the complement of (3 or more)
P(less than 3)= 1- P(3 or more)= 1-0,35=0,65 or
P(less than 3)= P(0)+P(1)+P(2)=0,65
• Ex: The sample space for an experiment consist of four simple events E1, E2 , E3, E4 which are
mutually exclusive. The probabilities of occurence of these events are:
P(E1)=0.2, P(E2)=0.1, P(E3)=0.4, P(E4)=0.3 Several compound events can be defined for
this experiment. They include
• A={ E1, E2 , E3}
• B= { E2 , E4 }
• C= {E1, E3 , E4}
• Determine
• P(A)
• P(A’)
• P(B)
• P(C)
• P(C’)
• P(A∪B)
• P(B∩C)
Theorem 4: If A and B are different events, then

P(A ∩ B’)= P(A) - P(A∩B)

P(A’∩ B)= P(B) - P(A∩B)

A B

Shaded region is (A ∩ B’)

EX: In a residential suburb, 60% of all households get Internet service from a local cable company, 80% get television
service from that company, and 50% get both services from that company. If a houshold is randomly selected,
a) What is the probability that a randomly selected household subscribes to at least one of these two services from
the local company?
b) What is the probability that a household subscribes only to TV service?
c) What is the probability that a household subscribes only to internet service?
d) What is the probability that a household subscribes to exactly one of these services from the local company?
• Rule: the conditional probability of event B given the occurence of event A
is
𝑃(𝐴⋂𝐵)
𝑃 𝐵∖𝐴 =
𝑃(𝐴)

• The notation for conditional probability is P(B ∖ A), read as the probability of B given A.
Ex: The probability of a head on the third toss of a coin, given that the first two tosses
both resulted in a head is a conditional probability...
Ex: The probability that the selected one will be a smoker, given that the selected one is
male is conditional probability. P(S\M)
Ex: At CIU, the probability that a student takes Statistics and Calculus is 0.087.
The probability that a student takes Statistics is 0.68. What is the probability
that a student takes Calculus, given that the student is taking Statistics?

Solution:
• C:Calculus S:Statistics
• 𝑃 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑠 ∩ 𝐶𝑎𝑙𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑢𝑠 = 𝑃 𝑆 ∩ 𝐶 = 0,087
• 𝑃 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑠 = 𝑃 𝑆 = 0,68
• P (Calculus\Statistics)=?

𝑃 𝐶∩𝑆 0,087
• 𝑃 𝐶\𝑆 = =
𝑃 𝑆 0,68
•
• By definition, however, independent events have the property that occurence
or non occurence of one event has no influence on the probability of another
event.
Definition: Two events A and B are said to be independent if,
𝑃 𝐴∖𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴
or
𝑃 𝐵 ∖ 𝐴 = 𝑃(𝐵)
• This is equivalent to stating that
𝑃(A ∩ B)= P 𝐴 . P(B)

Theorem: If in an experiment the events A and B can both occur, then

𝑃 A ∩ B = P A . P(B\A) or
𝑃 A ∩ B = P B . P(A\B)
• Theorem: If in an experiment the events A and B can both occur, then
𝑃 A ∩ B = P A . P(B\A)

Ex: Let A and B be two events with P(A)=1/3 , P(B’)=3/4 and P(A )= 1/2 . Find
(a) P(AB)
(b) P(AB)
(c) P(A \ B)
(d) P(B \ A)
(e) Determine whether A and B are independent or not.
Solution:
a) P(AB)
P(A )=P(A)+P(B) - P(A 
P(A  P(A)+P(B) - P(A )= 1/3 + 1/4 - 1/2= 1/12
b) P(AB)= P((A )) Note that: (AB' A'B' 2nd De Morgan Rule
= P((A ))=1 - P(A )=1- 1/2=1/2
Solution (cont):

P(A∩B) 1/4 1
c) P(A \ B)= = = 1 1
[ P A ∩ B = P A − 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 3 − 12 =
3 1
= 4)]
P(B′ ) 3/4 3 12

𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 1/12 1
d) P(B \ A)= = =
𝑃(𝐴) 1/3 4

e) P(B \ A) = P(B)= 1/4 So, A and B are independent events

Ex: What is the probability that the sum of two die will be smaller than 4,
given that the first die is 1?
a. 1/6 b. 1/12 c. 1/3 d. 1/9 e. 1/18

Solution:
n(S)=6x6=36
A: total less than 4 A={ (1,1), (1,2), (2,1) }
B: first die is 1 B={(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6) }
A ∩ 𝐵= {(1,1), (1,2)}
𝑃(A∩𝐵) 2/36 2
P(A\B)= = = = 1/3
𝑃(𝐵) 6/36 6
Ex: The probability that a student passes Mathematics is 0.40​ and the
probability that he passes English is ​0.70​​. If each student pass at least one
subject​​, what is the probability that he will pass both subjects?
a. 0,40 b. 0,30 c. 0,70 d. 1,10 e. 0,10

Solution:

P(M)=0.40
P(E)=0.70
Each student pass at least one object -> 𝑃 𝑀 ∪ 𝐸 = 1
𝑃 𝑀 ∩ 𝐸 =?
𝑃 𝑀∪𝐸 =P M +P E −𝑃 𝑀∩𝐸
𝑃 𝑀 ∩ 𝐸 = 0.7 + 0.4 – 1= 0.1
Ex: A coin is biased so that a head is twice as likely to occur as a tail. If
the coin is tossed 3 times, what is the probability of getting 2 tails and 1
head?