Su-30 Vs Raaf Alternatives
Su-30 Vs Raaf Alternatives
Su-30 Vs Raaf Alternatives
by Carlo Kopp
Ongoing sales of the Su-30 Flanker family of long range fighters in the region are progressively changing the
strategic landscape. This will have a profound long term impact across the region as the baseline in regional
airpower capabilities rises. Part 2 of this feature explores some of the longer term issues.
Notes: O/B – seeker off-boresight acquisition angle; IRH – heatseeking, single or dual colour scanning seeker; SARH – semi-active radar homing seeker;
DL – datalink for midcourse guidance corrections – either analogue or digital; IMU – inertial package for midcourse guidance; Passive RF – passive radio
frequency anti-radiation seeker; ARH – active radar homing seeker; Acquisition Range is that at which the seeker can acquire its target; Kinematic Range is
A-pole or F-pole; Target G – max load factor of target vehicle; Launch G – max load factor of launch aircraft; APU – Aviatsionnaya Puskovaya Ustanovka
(rail launcher); AKU – Aviatsionnaya Katapultnaya Ustanovka (ejector); This is a current open source compilation based on manufacturers’ and third party
data therefore figures should be treated with appropriate caution (Author).
trend will persist and the most advanced Russian hardware, initial Sukhoi aircraft, indeed the Indian government audit
and indigenous equipment, will be widely used. While this will public report lists a litany of contractual problems and
not put a dent into the US Air Force’s stealthy supercruising Su-30K/MK servicabilities as low as 50%. These problems
F/A-22A fleet, it is likely to make life very difficult for the USN should be seen in the proper context as they represent the
with a planned force structure of F/A-18E/Fs and JSFs. If the transient state experienced when introducing a radically
RAAF opts for the JSF as its single type solution it is likely to new piece of technology and supporting systems. The
experience similar grief. Sukhois are a generation beyond the MiG-29s flown by the
In the long term the Russians will find a growing market IAF and two generations ahead of the 1950s technology
for ‘Counter-ISR’ (ISR - Intelligence, Surveillence, Recon- which makes up the backbone of the PLA-AF.
naissance) weapons – the 215nm (398km) KS-172, 160nm With HAL and Shenyang to perform domestic assembly
(296km) R-37 and 60nm (111km) Kh-31 series. In any en- and part production, in time both nations will have the abil-
gagement against a western air force, the first wave of ity to domestically manufacture high failure rate compo-
Sukhois would shoot long range ‘AWACS-killer’ weapons nents, and perform factory/depot deep overhauls. As a result
such as the KS-172, R-37, Kh-31 – or types as yet unknown – what we see now in the support base for the aircraft will not
to either destroy the AEW&C/AWACS or force it to shut persist and should not be used as an indicator of the long
down and retreat – the ‘AWACS-killer’ theme is frequently term supportability of the aircraft. With large fleet sizes even
seen in Russian marketing literature and statements. a large proportion of grounded aircraft still leaves strategi-
The result is that forward defending CAPs have to then cally significant numbers to cause mayhem with.
light up their radars to attempt to function autonomously – Another factor in time will be the availability of third
in turn making them vulnerable to detection by ESM and party Indian and Chinese made spares to other Sukhoi users
shots by anti-radiation missiles like the R-27EP or R-77P/MP. in the region. Bottlenecks in the supply of Russian made
This Russian doctrine of a deluge of long range missiles is spares may not persist past 2010 since the commercial in-
not new – it is a variation on their proven theme of attacking centives to bypass Russian suppliers are considerable – and
naval task forces with long range missiles. It is an evolution- many regional Sukhois will use substantial fractions of
ary adaptation to the growing dependency of western air western avionics hardware. In time we can expect to see
forces on large and vulnerable ISR platforms – the E-3 more bilateral deals, of the ilk seen between India and Ma-
AWACS, RC-135V/W Rivet Joint, E-8 JSTARS, E-10 MC2A and laysia for MiG-29 support, emerging between regional play-
of course the RAAF’s new Wedgetail.
The reality is that of an evolving technological landscape
in which advanced conventional weapons and supporting
technologies proliferate often very rapidly. The rate of Su-30
uptake in the region is a good case study – any nation with
the cash can acquire very quickly large numbers of top-tier
combat aircraft often with the latest western avionics and
Russian weapons and sensors fitted.
STRATEGIC IMPACT OF Su-30 IN THE REGION
We have yet to see the full strategic impact of the Su-30
proliferating in the nearer and wider region. India and China
will not have most of their Sukhoi force structures deployed
until 2015 or later, and it is unclear how many Sukhois both
Malaysia and Indonesia will ultimately operate.
In the near term, both Indonesia and China will have
difficulties with fully exploiting the aircraft as they have
steep learning curves to climb in training and support –
India and Malaysia are apt to fare much better with west-
ern based training systems. We can expect to see regional
users of the Su-30 maturing their capabilities to use the
aircraft in the latter part of this decade. Much has been
said about China’s difficulties in recruiting and training
competent Sukhoi drivers – with a population base of
over a billion it is however only a matter of time before
they learn to do this properly.
Much has been made of the serviceability and support
problems experienced by the IAF and the PLA-AF with their