A Cross-Industry Public Foresight Project: Co-Authors Contributing Authors

A Cross-Industry
Public Foresight Project

Co-Authors Contributing Authors
John Smart, Acceleration Studies Foundation Corey Bridges, Multiverse
Jamais Cascio, Open the Future Jochen Hummel, Metaversum
Jerry Paffendorf, The Electric Sheep Company James Hursthouse, OGSi
Randal Moss, American Cancer Society
Lead Reviewers
Edward Castronova, Indiana University Richard Marks, Sony Computer Entertainment
Alexander Macris, Themis Group Rueben Steiger, Millions of Us
LEAD SPONSOR FOUNDING PARTNERS
Futuring and
Innovation Center
Graphic Design: FizBit.com
accelerating.org metaverseroadmap.org
MVR Summit Attendees
Distinguished industry leaders, technologists, analysts, and creatives
who provided their insights in various 3D web domains.
Bridget C. Agabra Project Manager, Metaverse Roadmap Project Patrick Lincoln Director, Computer Science Department, SRI
Janna Anderson Dir. of Pew Internet’s Imagining the Internet; Asst. International
Prof. of Communications, Elon University Julian Lombardi Architect, Open Croquet; Assistant VP for
Tod Antilla Flash Developer, American Cancer Society Academic Services and Technology Support,
Office of Information Technology
Wagner James Au Blogger, New World Notes; Author, The Making of
Second Life, 2008 Richard Marks Creator of the EyeToy camera interface; Director
of Special Projects, Sony CEA R&D
Jeremy Bailenson Director, Virtual Human Interaction Lab, Stanford
University Bob Moore Sociologist, Palo Alto Research Center (PARC),
PlayOn project
Betsy Book Director of Product Management, Makena
Technologies/There; Editor, Virtual Worlds Review Randal Moss Manager of Futuring and Innovation Based
Strategies, American Cancer Society
Corey Bridges Co-founder, Executive Producer and Marketing
Director, Multiverse Jerry Paffendorf Research Director, Acceleration Studies
Foundation; Futurist in Residence, Electric Sheep
Jamais Cascio Founder, Open the Future; Former Editor,
Worldchanging Company
Edward Castronova Author, Synthetic Worlds, 2005; Director of Grad Marty Poulin Co-founder and CTO, Yoick; Former Director
Studies, Dept of Telecom, U. of Indiana of Online Technology for Disney’s Interactive
Studios
Helen Cheng Assistant Product Manager, Seriosity
John Smart President, Acceleration Studies Foundation
Giff Constable VP of Business Development, Electric Sheep
Company David Smith Architect, Open Croquet; CTO, 3DSolve
Esther Dyson Editor, Release 1.0 and Editor at Large, CNET Rueben Steiger CEO, Millions of Us
Networks John Swords Host, SecondCast
Doug Englebart Pioneer of human-computer interaction at SRI; Daniel Terdiman Writer, CNET
Director, Bootstrap Institute
Barry Tolnas Web Development, American Cancer Society
Randy Farmer Community Strategic Analyst, Yahoo!, Inc.
Sibley Verbeck Founder and CEO, Electric Sheep Company
Guy Garnett Director, Cultural Computing Program, University
of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Mark Wallace Journalist; Blogger, 3pointD and Second Life
Herald; Co-Author, Only a Game, 2006
Eric Gruber Freelance Producer, MTV Networks
Payton White Manager of Distributed Network Technology, US
Will Harvey Founder and CEO, IMVU R&D, Sony Computer Entertainment
Daniel James CEO, Three Rings Ian Wilkes Director of Operations, Linden Lab/Second Life
Joaquin Keller Lead Designer, Solipsis; Senior Researcher, France Nick Yee Founder, Daedalus Project; Ph.D. Student,
Telecom R&D Department of Communication, Stanford
Raph Koster MMORPG Designer; Former CCO, Sony Online University
Entertainment Ethan Zuckerman Fellow, Berkman Center for Internet & Society,
Mike Liebhold Senior Researcher, Institute for the Future Harvard University
Other Contributors and Reviewers

Other foresighted individuals who contributed ideas to or Jonas Karllson Research scientist, Images and Services
Technology Center, Xerox Innovation Group.
feedback on the MVR. Mason Lee Blog, Mason Lee.
Paul J.S. Beaubein Independent. Tim Moenk Futurist, What a Concept. Blog, Continuous
Alvis Brigis Entrepreneur, new media producer, futurist. Partial Attention.
Peder Burgaard Event Manager, Innovation Lab, Denmark. Rik Panganiban Blog, The Click Heard Round the World.
William G. Burns III CTO, VR5 Online. Blog, City of Nidus. Giulio Prisco Blog, Uvvy.
David Carmein CEO, Virtual Space Devices. Byron Reeves Director, CLSI, Stanford University. Expert on
the psychological processing of media.
Joel Greenberg Sr. Planner, GSD&M. Friends Talking Podcast.
Joyce Schwarz Principal of JCOM. Strategic marketing,
John Hanke General Manager, Google Earth. branding, and new product introduction.
Darren Herman Co-Founder of IGA Worldwide. Blog, Darren Fred Stutzman Co-Founder, Claim ID online identity
Herman. management system, an implementation of the
James Hursthouse CEO, Online Game Services, Inc. Hosting OpenID standard.
and managing Massively Multiplayer Online Phillip Torrone Associate Editor, Make Magazine.
Games since 1999.
Philippe Van Nedervelde European virtual world developer,
Joi Ito Blogger; CEO and Founder, Neoteny; Board, entrepreneur, and futurist.
ICANN.
Bruce Woodcock Researcher in Massively Multiplayer Online
Sven Johnson Independent product development consultant. Games, mmogchart.com.
Blog, reBang.
Baba Yamamoto Director, LibSecondLife; SL History Wiki.
Metaverse Roadmap
Pathways to the 3D Web A Cross-Industry Public Foresight Project
What happens when video games meet Web 2.0? When virtual worlds meet
geospatial maps of the planet? When simulations get real and life and business go
virtual? When you use a virtual Earth to navigate the physical Earth, and your
avatar becomes your online agent? What happens is the metaverse.
Introduction In its inaugural version, the MVR
focuses on defining and exploring
periodically seeking the guidance of
experts at sponsored MVR summits,
Over the past year the this major new social space. In and engaging in extended interaction
Acceleration Studies Foundation future versions we expect to add with online communities through the
(ASF) and its supporting industry-developed timelines for use of blogs, wikis, podcasts, and
foresight partners have explored Metaverse technology other media channels.
the virtual and 3D future of the development. Our inaugural MVR
World Wide Web in a first-of- budget was roughly $100K, paid We invite you to contribute your
its-kind cross-industry public for by our generous financial unique insights to future Metaverse
foresight project, the Metaverse sponsors. With the resources Roadmap summits, conversations,
Roadmap (MVR). We use the provided we endeavored be as and updates through feedback,
term Metaverse in a way that multinational and inclusive as volunteer effort, and financial
includes and builds upon Neal possible. With greater support. In these early days of the
Stephenson’s coinage in the recognition, more visibility and Metaverse, financial sponsorship is
cyberpunk science fiction novel, more sponsorship support, we particularly helpful to improving the
Snow Crash, which envisioned a look forward to bringing an even quality of future roadmaps. Email us
future broadly reshaped by broader range of expertise to the at roadmap@accelerating.org .
virtual and 3D technologies. next version of the roadmap.
The MVR has “near-term” The MVR comprises two

anticipation horizon of ten years documents, both
(to 2017), a “longer-term” available at
speculation horizon of twenty MetaverseRoadmap.org:
years (to 2025), and a charter to 1) a set of MVR Inputs
discover early indicators of (75 pages) which
significant developments ahead. summarize key insights
Seeking diverse points of view, in 19 foresight
our process included an categories, and 2) this
invitational Metaverse Roadmap MVR Overview (22
Summit, public and expert pages + Appendix)
surveys, a few workshops and which synthesizes some
roundtables at major U.S. (not all) of the Inputs
conferences, social meetups, and into a series of narratives
a public wiki. Many helpful to explain important
people from the IT, virtual features of the change
worlds, professional, academic, and opportunity ahead. Moore’s Law: A doubling of real
futurist, and lay communities computing power has occurred every 2.3
contributed ideas to the MVR. The goal of the MVR project is to years, on average, since the birth of
regularly update our ten- and modern computing. Moore’s Law is one of
several enabling technological trends for
twenty-year public foresight by Metaverse development.
Metaverse Roadmap
Pathways to the 3D Web 3 A Cross-Industry Public Foresight Project
Metaverse Definition web technologies, and the standard
way in which we think of life online.
(efficiencies of ICT, nanotechnologies,
and process automation based on these
The Metaverse is a complex Like the Web, the Metaverse technologies), it is most reasonable to
concept. In recent years, the term wouldn't be the entirety of the expect the great majority of these
has grown beyond Stephenson’s Internet—but like the Web, it would technology trends to continue
1992 vision of an immersive 3D be seen by many as the most accelerating over the time horizon of this
virtual world, to include aspects of important part. roadmap.
the physical world objects, actors, Moore’s Law is just one of a
interfaces, and networks that The emergence of a robust large family of accelerating
construct and interact with virtual Metaverse will shape the
technology capacity
and performance
environments. We have collected development of many growth curves.
several definitions in the Glossary technological realms that
(Sec. 20) of the MVR Inputs. Here presently appear non-
is one that seems as good a starting Internet-related. In
point as any: The Metaverse is the manufacturing, 3D
convergence of 1) virtually- environments offer ideal
enhanced physical reality and 2) design spaces for rapid-
physically persistent virtual space. prototyping and customized
It is a fusion of both, while and decentralized
allowing users to experience it as production. In logistics and
either. transportation, spatially-
aware tags and real-time
There is no single, unified entity world modeling will bring
called the Metaverse—rather, there new efficiencies, insights,
are multiple mutually-reinforcing and markets. In artificial
ways in which virtualization and
3D web tools and objects are being
intelligence, virtual worlds offer low- MVR Survey
risk, transparent platforms for the A twenty-two question survey of key
embedded everywhere in our development and testing of uncertainties in the Metaverse future
environment and becoming autonomous machine behaviors, was developed and administered to our
persistent features of our lives. many of which may be also used in 50 summit experts (30 responded) and
These technologies will emerge the physical world. These are just a also briefly posted for public input at the
contingent upon potential benefits, sampling of coming developments MVR website (115 to 136 responded).
investments, and customer interest, based on early stage Metaverse Some valuable insights emerged, and a
and will be subject to drawbacks technologies. number of responses are included in the
and unintended consequences.
discussion below. Please see the
In sum, for the best view of the Appendix for the full response set.
In time, many of the Internet changes ahead, we suggest thinking
activities we now associate with the of the Metaverse not as virtual space MVR Survey Question 22. In 2016, how many
2D Web will migrate to the 3D but as the junction or nexus of our hours per week will a typical member of the U.S.
spaces of the Metaverse. This does population ages 13-30 use interactive, internet-
physical and virtual worlds. accessing, 3D visual environments for EACH of
not mean all or even most of our the following activities?
web pages will become 3D, or even
that we'll typically read web Enabling Trends
content in 3D spaces. It means that The back story of the Metaverse is
as new tools develop, we’ll be able that its emergence is being enabled
to intelligently mesh 2D and 3D to by a number of exponential
gain the unique advantages of each, technology capacity and performance
in the appropriate context. growth trends. Together, these
rapidly expanding digital capacities
Although the "Web" technically and abilities are creating the “soil” in
refers to a particular set of which our 3D web computing
protocols and online applications, ecosystem is emerging.
the term has become shorthand for
online life. It's possible that See the Constants (Sec. 3) of the
"Metaverse" will come to have this MVR Inputs for a sampling of their In 2016 the Metaverse may be primarily a social
same duality: referring to both a breadth and impact. Due to the and communication space, but experts suggest
it will have many other uses as well.
particular set of virtualizing and 3D special physics of the nanocosm
Metaverse Roadmap
Metaverse Scenarios context, this means technologies
that layer new control systems and
development in various contexts, is yet
to be seen.
The complexity of the Metaverse information onto our perception of
suggests great uncertainty about the physical environment. Combining the two critical
how and when its forces and uncertainties gives four key
features will manifest in society. • Simulation refers to technologies components of the Metaverse future:
In such conditions, foresight that model reality (or parallel
professionals frequently use a
scenario approach, creating a set
realities), offering wholly new
environments; in the Metaverse
Virtual Worlds
of partly-unique and partly- context, this means technologies Mirror Worlds
overlapping stories of future
conditions. Scenarios aren't a
that provide simulated worlds as
the locus for interaction.
Augmented Reality
method of finding probable
futures; instead, they're tools for
Lifelogging
• Intimate technologies are focused
exploring possible futures, and inwardly, on the identity and
looking for less-obvious actions of the individual or object; These four scenarios emphasize
implications. Nevertheless, we do in the Metaverse context, this different functions, types, or sets of
venture a few predictions in the means technologies where the user Metaverse technologies. All four are
following pages. (or semi-intelligent object) has already well into early emergence, yet
agency in the environment, either the conditions under which each will
For those seeking additional through the use of an avatar/digital fully develop, in particular contexts,
opinions on probable Metaverse profile or through direct appearance are far from clear.
futures, we refer you to Cycles as an actor in the system.
(Sec. 7), Trends (Sec. 8), and the
There are of course other types and
many Predictions (Sec. 9), • External technologies are focused functions of technology likely to
recorded in the MVR Inputs. outwardly, towards the world at influence Metaverse development
Prediction analysis, another large; in the Metaverse context, this which are not explicitly covered in our
foresight practice, has repeatedly means technologies that provide scenarios.
shown that even the best long- information about and control of
range technology forecasts the world around the user. Several of these minimally mentioned
typically have only a 50% success
or neglected topics are likely to
rate (Megamistakes,
be major near-term influences,
Schnaars, 1989). Assuming
such as Internet Television
we have met that standard,
(ITV) and Videoconferencing.
which half of our MVR
Others, such as the
predictions are correct we
Conversational Interface (CI)
leave to you, and the
to the web may become key
future, to determine.
drivers only in the longer-term
speculation horizon of the
To construct our scenario
set we selected two key roadmap (2016 to 2025).
continua that are likely to
influence the ways in For more on such important
which the Metaverse factors, and several mini-
unfolds: the spectrum of scenarios relating to them, see
technologies and Positive Scenarios (Sec. 10),
applications ranging from Negative Scenarios (Sec. 11)
augmentation to and Wildcard Scenarios (Sec.
simulation; and the 12) in the MVR Inputs.
spectrum ranging from
intimate (identity-focused) to Recognizing the complexity of the
These continua are "critical Metaverse space, we nevertheless
external (world-focused). uncertainties"—critical because consider the following four major
they are fundamental aspects of the scenarios an excellent starting point
• Augmentation refers to coming Metaverse, and
technologies that add new for understanding our virtual and 3D
uncertainties because how they will digital future.
capabilities to existing real emerge, their relative and absolute
systems; in the Metaverse
Metaverse Roadmap
Virtual Worlds (Intimate/Simulation) Electronic virtual worlds (first text based, later graphical)
have existed since our first personal computers (e.g., MUD,
Virtual worlds increasingly augment the economic and Adventureland, and CBBS 1978). See History (Sec. 1) in the
social life of physical world communities. The MVR Inputs. They are digital versions of narratives set in
sharpness of many virtual and physical world “other realities” since the beginning of civilization. In the
distinctions will be eroded going forward. In both earliest years, the quality of textual narratives, story, and
spaces, issues of identity, trust and reputation, social emotional appeal drove adoption. Later, visual aspects
roles, rules, and interaction remain at the forefront. became a leading differentiator. As graphical technology
improved, it crossed a usability threshold, then broadband
Issues and Technologies connectivity increased, and now software advances are
Discussion of the Metaverse usually begins with giving new creative powers to the user. These developments
massively multi-user virtual worlds (VWs), a fast- have allowed social and economic potential to become major
growing space that is already mixing physical and virtual new differentiators. Many of today’s “2.5D” VW’s such as
social, economic, and to a limited extent, political Playdo and Habbo Hotel attract millions of youth users.
systems via both asynchronous single-user and realtime Their less-than-3D graphics can be overlooked due to their
multi-user modes. Of all our scenarios, Metaverse social benefits, simplicity, and speed of operation on today’s
computers.
Roadmap participants talked most about virtual worlds.
At the same time, VWs evoked the greatest uncertainty
and disagreement. There is a useful distinction between VW-based multiplayer
games, such as Everquest or World of Warcraft, and VW-
based social environments, such as Second Life and Sony's
A key component of the VW scenario is one’s avatar (or
in multiplayer games, character), the user’s Home. Multiplayer games are goal-oriented, with social
interaction used as a tool for task completion; such worlds
personification in the VW. As in the physical world,
are set in an internally-consistent fictional or fantasy-based
capabilities accessible in digital space are contingent on
realm. In most, entertainment is a primary goal. In so-called
the limitations of the avatar. But in comparison to one’s
physical persona, growth in the social, economic, and “serious games,” training and education are primary goals.
functional capabilities of one’s avatar can be far more
rapid, and learning experiences can be greatly
accelerated. By contrast with the general 3D web, MVR
participants expected only a limited non-entertainment
adoption (and by inference, social utility and intelligence)
of avatars and VWs over the near-term, ten-year roadmap
horizon.
MVR Survey Question 17. In 2016, what percentage of

internet users in more developed countries (MDCs) will use Screenshots from Peacemaker, a serious game that teaches
diplomacy, development, and conflict resolution in a fictional Middle East.
an interactive 3D avatar at least once a week for any purpose
other than games and entertainment, including socializing,
communication, creativity, education, barter, commerce, MVR Survey Question 6. Within the next five years, a leading
exercise, etc? global web company will launch, or buy and launch, a 3D virtual
Summit Survey: 50% of users world where users are encouraged to engage in economic
Website Survey: 52% of users transactions and own as legal property products they create in
the world.
Avatar image from Perfect World China website. Social VWs, by contrast, exhibit fewer overt goals and value
structures, and offer more open-ended user freedoms,
creation of objects, economic and social interaction, and
interpersonal networks. In a few social VWs, such as the
Metaverse Roadmap
rapidly growing world of Second Life, the user retains multiplayer VWs, object creation is constrained by the
some ownership rights to the objects, land, and other setting and game rules. In mirror worlds, creation is
assets acquired in the world. The emergence of broader constrained by the need to reflect reality. Only in social VWs
individual rights inside VWs, a move beyond historically is the creation process truly open-ended, and many are
restrictive EULAs (End-User License Agreements) was becoming open-source as well. At present, Second Life (SL)
discussed by MVR participants as a new convergence offers the most powerful object-creation toolset in a virtual
between virtual and physical space. While inspiring, the world. With some effort, SL objects can be converted to
vision (John Perry Barlow, 1996) of an emerging professional 3D programs (Maya, 3DS Max, Solidworks,
independent cyberspace, with its own political and etc.) for animation, blueprint roughs, and even computer-
economic rules and jurisdictions, like any sovereign aided design and production of simple physical-world
nation, was not echoed by MVR participants, who talked objects. SL’s next generation of server upgrades will also
of increasing physical world regulation over virtual space support spatial audio streams of its inhabitants, which will
in the foreseeable future. provide an attractive and useful new dimension to the VW.
These are promising developments, though many challenges
In practice, the game vs. social world distinction is often remain.
blurred, as goal-directed games always emerge inside
social VWs, and as social experiences broaden inside the
more popular game worlds. The distinction may be
further eroded by interoperability, as VW “syndication”
emerges in coming years. Having more user freedom to
move avatars, interfaces, and assets between worlds—
subject to the need to maintain story integrity in game-
based worlds—was a common desire of MVR
participants. But to move beyond today’s “Walled
Gardens,” not only new standards and syndicates, but
better systems for user identity, trust, and reputation will
A panel discussion inside Second Life. Avatars can watch video,
be needed, to ensure player accountability to the unique
hear audio of the speakers, and text chat with each other
rules of each world. privately during the event.
MVR Survey Question 2. In 2016, the most popular global How many social VWs will themselves be open source in
3D worlds (by user base) will allow the importing of user trust
the longer term future, and how many will flourish with a
and reputation rating systems from a variety of other online
environments. limited use of open source on top of proprietary platforms
Summit Survey N=30, Mean=3.87 was another topic of debate. Most MVR participants
Website Survey N=134, Mean=3.94 expected significant growth in open source VWs, but with
the majority of commerce staying in proprietary worlds.
MVR Survey Question 8. In 2016, what percentage of global 3D

virtual world and game commerce will occur in worlds that are
operated under each of the following business models?
MVR Survey Question 21. In 2016, of the top 100 global

3D-enhanced online environments how many belong in each What is life like in this scenario?
of the following interoperability categories? The virtual worlds scenario imagines broad future
participation in virtual space commons. Many new forms of
association will emerge that are presently cost-prohibitive
in physical space, and VWs may outcompete physical space
for many traditional social, economic, and political
functions. In the 20 year scenario, they may become
primary tools (with video and text secondary) for learning
many aspects of history, for acquiring new skills, for job
Both VW’s and “mirror worlds” (virtual spaces that assessment, and for many of our most cost-effective and
model physical space) offer object creation tools. But in productive forms of collaboration.
Metaverse Roadmap
In the stronger version of this scenario, VWs capture limited VW scenario would be most likely to be dominated
most, if not all, current forms of digital interaction, from by large traditional media companies rather than the
entertainment to work to education to shopping to pluralistic ecosystem we might expect in the stronger VW
dating, even email and operating systems, though the 3D scenario.
aspects may remain minimally used in the latter
contexts. Youth raised in such conditions might live New thresholds in dynamic photorealism of computer
increasingly Spartan lives in the physical world, and graphics, driven by the entertainment industry, will clearly
rich, exotic lives in virtual space—lives they perceive as drive incremental adoption. For example, the ability of
more empowering, creative and webcams to dynamically map the facial expressions of
"real" than their physical existence, computer users onto their virtual world avatars was
in the ways that count most. considered a probable near-term VW development. The
ultimate expression of the VW scenario would include
New identities, new social experiences. simulation of proprioception (body position), touch, scent
and even taste, a form of immersive virtual reality. Yet few
Aided by VW interoperability, an participants considered such science fictional advances likely
individual may easily access a far broader set of for mass use even in a twenty-year speculation horizon.
experiences in digital settings than she or he could in the
physical world, as well as a vastly larger social network. A key enabler for the utility of avatars as representatives,
At the same time, the emerging Participatory Web is screeners, assistants, etc. would be a Conversational Interface
providing tools and platforms that empower the user to (CI), Inputs 8Ac, a dialog platform sophisticated enough to
tag, blog, comment, modify, augment, select from, rank, support web queries and responses (text or voice) using
and talk back to the contributions of other users and the seven or more word “sentences,” approximating simple
world community. Tomorrow’s 3D Participatory Web human conversation. Today humanity uses an average of
technologies will greatly enrich our virtual spaces. See three words in our web searches, and we used an average of
Current Conditions (Sec. 2) of the MVR Inputs for more 1.3 words in searches on a much smaller and simpler web in
on the Participatory Web. 1998. Most participants expected the CI to emerge some time
after 2012, and a substantial portion expected it after 2017 or
Many of today’s “netizens” use 2D personal web pages never. Empowering avatars with primitive conversational
and home pages in MySpace, and in Korea, 2.5D intelligence would allow us to use them as simple secretaries,
“minihompy” in Cyworld as their preferred interface to agents, and customer support. Individuals could query your
the world. Will tomorrow’s “Metaversans” require “digital twin” 24/7 to learn your public persona and current
potential contacts (those seeking emails, profile info, or status, and a CI would promote universal access to and use of
live contact) to teleport to the VW address of one of their the 2D and 3D web, even for nonliterate youth in emerging
beautiful virtual homes, with exteriors that display their nations.
public interests and values to the world?
MVR Survey Question 19. For users in the U.S., when will the
average query length used in leading search applications grow to
seven words (voice or text)?
Virtual house in Sims 2. When will our favorite virtual objects

be available from physical world retailers?
In a more limited version of the scenario, VWs become On the social side, perhaps the most obvious persistent trend
popular for a few social and professional interactions, and will be identity experimentation, self-revelation and role play
as an interface in certain social contexts, but end up filling in VWs, and the creative variation of social norms around
a circumscribed role similar to that of present-day gender, ethnicity, social class, etiquette, and group values and
televisions, home game consoles, or personal computers. goals. We see this in today’s pioneering social VWs like
Much of what people do today in the physical world Second Life, and social networks like MySpace. As the virtual
continues with little input from virtual worlds. This worlds scenario unfolds, we can expect an explosion in the
limited scenario came primarily from non-technologists, number of people engaged in such activities, and the ensuing
who thought cultural conservatism and economic barriers social change to bring both positive and disruptive effects.
would be major roadblocks to the stronger vision. The
Metaverse Roadmap
Mirror Worlds (External/Simulation) around cities to add ground-level images to the building
models in our urban mirror worlds.
Mirror worlds are informationally-enhanced virtual
models or “reflections” of the physical world. Their
construction involves sophisticated virtual mapping,
modeling, and annotation tools, geospatial and other
sensors, and location-aware and other lifelogging
(history recording) technologies.
Amazon’s Block View, street-level GIS images
Amazon’s BlockView (2004-2006), was an early effort at

ground-level urban images to supplement online Yellow
Pages. While street pictures alone didn’t increase adoption
of online Yellow Pages, they make more sense as part of a
Google Earth home screen, North America free open-standards MW with multiple uses (shopping,
tourism, navigation, business, research, etc.) especially if
Issues and Technologies the provider (Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, etc.) can sell
Unlike virtual worlds, which involve alternate realities location-based advertising to accompany MW use. In this
that may be similar to Earth’s or wildly different, regard, new picture-based MWs, like Street View in
mirror worlds model the world around us. The best- Google Maps, deliver compelling visual information. The
known example of a mirror world (MW) is presently addition of live camera feeds to popular destinations will
Google Earth, a free, web-based, open-standards digital further increase the stickiness of such environments, and
map of Earth. Yet Google Earth is just one of a large these platforms may be the most direct path toward the
class of mirror worlds, which are also known as Virtual Town Square scenario (see below).
geographic information systems (GIS). GIS systems
capture, store, analyze and manage data and associated
attributes that are spatially referenced to the Earth.
The first digital mirror worlds were government-built

public resources (eg., the Canadian GIS, 1967). The
next were expensive proprietary pre-Internet systems,
funded by business and institutional customers (eg.,
3D building model imported from SketchUp to Google Earth.
ESRI’s ArcGIS). Such systems remain very popular
today, and have some free components. With the
With the acquisition and free release of SketchUp, an
advent of the free Google Earth in 2005, a powerful
intuitive 3D modeling program, Google has made it easy
open-standards MW came to the web. Google,
for users to add 3D building data (example above) to any
Microsoft and others also offer for-pay MWs with
of the GIS overlays (tourist attractions, real estate maps,
additional GIS features not available in the free
roads, businesses, etc.) in Google Earth. Such tools will
versions.
help the current generation of web users to more easily
create virtual objects. By and large however, individual
Initially, MW maps were based on cartographic
humans will not build tomorrow’s 3D mirror worlds,
surveys, with informational overlays. Later maps were
though they will most certainly annotate them.
updated with satellite and aircraft imagery, and now
some (Google Earth, military systems) are being
Look instead to automated 3D city model construction
augmented by ground-based imagery, often produced
software, which converts digital pictures, video, laser, and
by cars mounted with scanning cameras, driving
embedded environmental inputs into 3D models via rapid
Metaverse Roadmap
drive-thru acquisition. This technology is presently in sensors will allow the emergence of “local positioning
use for small 3D spaces (eg, RealViz, 3rd Tech) and is systems” (aka location-based systems) that enable us to
nearing city-level utility. MVR participants considered locate everything we care about in our environment (e.g,
such automated 3D hardware and software likely to be tools in the house, children in the neighborhood, friends
a major contributor to our mirror worlds in the near- on the planet) on a realtime MW map.
term roadmap timeframe.
Mirror worlds for the home will be
a significant new market. Security,
property insurance, moving and
storage, rental and barter, interior
decorating, construction, and home
automation are just a few of many
industries that will be significantly
affected. The informational power
of these tools will create new
challenges for crime prevention and
privacy protection.
As GPS migrates to the car and Google Maps on the

cellphone, MW navigation and Blackberry PDA
First-gen 3D buildings in Osaka, Japan on Google Earth.
community search functionality will achieve mass
adoption. Location-based search on the cellphone is a
Digital Earth systems add a precise spatial context to
near-term development that will be a major new source of
physical world information, a context that is either
social value and provider revenue. Google and other
missing or very poor in other media formats. MW
companies are presently sourcing low-price GPS-equipped
maps serve not only as representations, but also as
cellphones, to be offered even in emerging nations.
interfaces for access to other networks and devices.
Google’s mobile browser, incorporating Google Maps,
will return search queries (eg, “coffee shop” or
Open-standards and public platforms, like Google
“supermarket”) filtered based on dynamic user location,
Earth, may become the dominant mirror worlds within
with location-based ads a click away.
the near-term roadmap horizon, but proprietary and
private versions are also likely to see continued growth
GIS integration with virtual world object creation
in the corporate and institutional sectors, to protect
(SketchUp, Second Life, etc) will also advance, and
strategies and to seek competitive advantages.
mirror world mashups with web-based digital photo sites
(Flickr, etc.) are already in use. As internet television
Firms with GIS, sensor or virtual world strategies and
software and bandwidth develop (Joost, etc.), MW video
experience are potential first-movers in the MW
integration will be next.
scenario. Standards will be important here, and open
source has some potential to shake things up.
What is life like in this scenario?

Some futurists have proclaimed that virtual worlds, the
Internet, global outsourcing and telepresence are
heralding the “end of geography.” Such ideas were
paralleled with advent of the airplane and telegraph a
century earlier, which led to predictions of a
“borderless world.” There is certainly a limited truth to
these perspectives, yet mirror worlds will also make
borders, cities, and spatial positioning even more
interesting, productive, and important.
A Mirror World and Flickr photo sharing mashup.
In coming years, the proliferation of location- and
context-aware sensors will create smart urban and rural The mirror world interface is a compelling educational,
environments, and the quality of our mirror world organizational, and commercial tool for understanding and
simulations, augmented reality interfaces and object managing global events such as climate and geopolitics.
and user lifelogs (history recording systems) will Transnational institutions, NGOs, and others with global
steadily improve. Future classes of RFID and other focus are likely to be early users as MW functionality
Metaverse Roadmap
improves. Digital Earth systems also offer a unique worlds scenario is one in which a great deal of power
way to transition between global and local context. comes from the technology's ability to "make the invisible
visible"—that is, to reveal processes and flows (e.g. which
At the regional and city level, the mirror world local restaurants near your present location served the
interface is very useful for navigation, education, best-rated food last month, according to your preferred
commerce, and business analytics, including logistics, social groups) that would otherwise be too subtle or
marketing, and finance. Once GPS-localization and complex to recognize.
videoconferencing can both be done within the MW, it
seems a compelling platform for socializing and In the longer-term time horizon, given a sufficiently
entertainment as well. See Inputs 8Bj for more on robust model of the real world, complete with abundant
recent videoconferencing trends. live data sources and preferences and values maps of the
inhabitants, mirror worlds will eventually come to offer a
Imagine the following Virtual Town Square (VTS) powerful method of testing plans through data mining and
scenario (Inputs 9Bb), in Anytown, USA, circa 2012. simulation. Business, environmental, and political
You are contemplating your evening entertainment strategists may use a mirror world system to check the
options, so you teleport to various local VTS’s, plausibility of plans against a physical or virtual
accurate but flashier mirror world models of your community’s publicly expressed preferences and values.
town’s most popular social locations, to efficiently For more on this concept, see the Valuecosm, Inputs 9Cp.
review your options. In each, you can browse 2D
screens for movies, entertainment, etc., and quickly see Such a high-reflectivity model of Earth’s visible and
which of your friends are at what venues, based on intangible aspects is outlined by David Gelernter in
public reporting by their GPS-equipped phones. Mirror Worlds. Gelernter is optimistic that our coming
data-rich geographic simulations can give us not only tree-
You can also see their 3D avatars and talk to them level insight but also forest-level “topsight” into complex
firsthand, by voice or text, to see what’s going on, or global systems, many of which are presently obscure.
unobtrusively read their public calendars to see if
they’d like others to join them. You can talk with the
avatars of others visiting the space, who are either
browsing along with you or who are downtown in
person. Once the digerati of one city find personal
value in a social VTS mirror world, others may be built
in rapid succession. As with websites, there would be a
good economic case for businesses to keep them up to
date with the most recent information, live feeds
(webcams, etc.) and advert video of the local activity. Mirror Worlds by David Gelernter, 1992
If the leading mirror world tech trend is towards increased
data inputs (proliferating global sensors) and complexity
and accuracy in our sims, the leading MW social trend
may be efforts of the powerful to control access to the
most useful new information. Mirror worlds are
democratizing and pluralizing only to the extent that
everyone has access to and can annotate them. If that
access is restricted, they can easily become instruments of
state or corporate control. As long as this is seen as a
socially-undesirable outcome, much political effort will go
into finding ways to maintain and equalize access. The
rising power of the individual to use technology in
socially destructive ways will be one problem made worse
A virtual town square in the social VW Second Life.
by MW access. In wise societies, this problem will be
Personal use of mirror world tools arises from the countered by the rising social transparency and
value of visual location-based information: directions, accountability that mirror worlds, augmented reality,
local weather, traffic, business conditions, subtle lifelogs and related technologies provide. Different
environmental concerns (such as pollution or pollen cultures will make different choices with respect to MW
levels), and the like. Media companies may end up prevalence and access, but in general, they hold great
preferring mirror world environments as easy ways to promise to be a positive-sum social force, and to protect
control how their content is displayed. The mirror both civil liberties and social values and identity.
Metaverse Roadmap
Augmented Reality Physical hyperlinks, Inputs 2Ao, are a recent major AR
advance. PHs are machine-readable identifiers (1D and 2D
(External/Augmentation) barcode, RFID tag, image, sound, fingerprint) that can be
In augmented reality, Metaverse technologies enhance resolved by a cell phone camera. A high-capacity (4,300
the external physical world for the individual, through character) square 2D barcode called the QR (“Quick
the use of location-aware systems and interfaces that Response”) code is now proliferating in Japan, with QR
process and layer networked information on top of our code readers preinstalled on all new 3G cellphones. They
everyday perception of the world.
are appearing on business cards (eliminating data entry),
magazine pages (for discount coupons), packaged goods
(for nutrition information), airport kiosks (for paperless
airline travel), even billboards (for movie trailers). Once
recognized by the camera, a single click dials a number,
starts an email, or takes the user to an internet site. Future
applications are limited only by the imagination.
Artist’s idea of augmented reality heads-up display (HUD)

A few of the many QR code applications in Japan.
Issues and Technologies
Historically, the augmented reality (AR) concept is Another important aspect of the AR scenario is the
based on the emergence of mirror world maps and interface, the ways and choices users have to access
global positioning networks, including the U.S. GPS virtual information overlaid on the physical world. One
and its European competitor, Galileo (due in 2011), as type of interface is a heads-up display (HUD), providing
well as cellular phone localizers relying in part on context-significant information through a mobile
triangulating cell towers. As GPS has become viewscreen (window, eyeglasses, cell phone screen, etc.).
increasingly commonplace, new services have emerged Microvision uses a tiny laser that paints a virtual image on
to take advantage of this geographic information, from a flipdown screen, or even directly on the user’s retina.
location tagging and logistics monitoring to location-
based games and context-aware advertising. Such
services are fairly rudimentary today, but will improve
greatly in granularity, accuracy and usability.
Augmented reality depends on the further development

of intelligent materials and the "smart environment"—
networked computational intelligence embedded in
physical objects and spaces. As described in Adam
Greenfield's Everyware, this vision of the so-called
"Internet of things" moves well beyond today’s Microvision’s Nomad AR device
primitive classes of RFID (radio frequency
identification) tags. Concepts such as the "spimes" More conventional visual interfaces, such as mobile
described by Bruce Sterling (individually-identified phones and the navigation screen in cars, are bound to be
objects that can be tracked through both time and space the most common AR interface for the near-term.
over their lifetime) or Julian Bleecker's "blogjects" Nevertheless there is room for innovation, as in wearable
(objects that keep a running public record of their phones whose lightweight visual display covers the back
condition and use) offer examples of the ways in which of the hand and wrist (see the Carpal PC, Inputs 9Ab).
materials, goods and the physical environment play a Mobile wearable screens are to some degree virtual or
part in the augmented reality world. mirror worlds, as they command all of the user’s attention,
at least for a glance. But they are also AR, as context-
Metaverse Roadmap
sensitive information is overlaid on them as they move What is life like in this scenario?
through the physical world. The augmented reality scenario offers a world in which
every item within view has a potential information
Another promising AR approach is an audio interface, shadow, a history and presence accessible via standard
with voice- or context-driven information delivered via interfaces. Most items that can change state (be turned on
earpiece (e.g., the ability to ask your search engine or off, change appearance, etc.) can be controlled via
anything, and have an answer whispered into your ear, wireless networking, and many objects that today would
contextualized to your physical location). Wearable be "dumb" matter will, in the augmented reality scenario,
audio AR may require a more robust Conversational be interactive and to a degree, controllable. To the AR
Interface before it reaches mass adoption however. generation, such properties will be like electricity to
children of the 20th century: essentially universal,
What might emerge in the near-term is location-based expected, and conspicuous only in their absence.
cellular radio (LBCR), Inputs 9Bd. Today, 3.5 and 4G
wireless platforms can already stream internet audio to Whoever delivers the first useful and scalable AR
the car radio and cell phone. Add GPS and a mirror operating system and standards, perhaps via the cell phone
world directory system and you can deliver location- platform, may become a central player in this future. As
based streaming radio to the mobile user. Many mobile virtual data proliferate, information overload will be a
users would like car and cell phone radio channels that common problem. The best of these will regulate human
give them 1) ultralocal news, politics, weather, and use of the system, respecting natural work, rest, and
traffic, 2) reviews and business-published info on local recreation cycles. In the near-term, AR devices may
restaurants, shops, and entertainment events, as they employ today’s collaborative filters, which self-organize
are approaching them, and 3) educational and historical to advance one’s interests and values. This will empower
information for local landmarks. LBCR might be a user annotation and the expression of individual opinion:
multi-billion dollar industry by 2016. Or it may be a the Participatory Web. Smart tag-based networks will
white elephant platform still waiting for user adoption. allow individuals to advise friends on which restaurants,
shops or services are worth visiting, and which should be
avoided. Time-based processes (such as appointments or
deliveries) can be followed with a small widget in one's
visual interface, unobtrusive but always available.
Steve Jobs demos the iPhone.
MVR Survey Question 12. In 2016, what percentage of

global mobile device users (cell phone, PDA, etc.) will have Microvision’s wearable AR display concept.
always-on broadband internet accessibility from their
devices? In the longer-term future, different people may have very
Summit Survey: 81% of users different experiences of the same physical location. In
Website Survey: 79% of users
extreme cases, one could use AR to hide images (such as
signs, video displays, even other people) considered
Another potential near-term AR platform is the Display distracting or offensive. In a new form of self-obsession,
Table/Game Table, Inputs 10Af, a kitchen, dining isolation, and addiction, some might choose see only
room, or workroom table with a touchscreen display “Potemkin Villages,” an information façade catering to
surface, networked vertical wall display(s), and their pre-existing biases and desires, and obscuring
individual AR displays for each user/player. Once unpleasant reality. Media services, religious groups,
affordable, such a device will facilitate new software companies, and many other players are likely to
videoconferencing, collaboration, entertainment, and compete in the filter market, and economic and political
social experiences beyond the living room and the pluralism should help ensure these systems empower
standalone computer. rather than control the individual.
Metaverse Roadmap
Lifelogging (Intimate/Augmentation) reported by concerned citizens with great frequency.
Traffic laws and norms will see adjustment as a result.
In lifelogging, augmentation technologies record and
report the intimate states and life histories of objects
and users, in support of object- and self-memory,
observation, communication, and behavior modeling.
Object Lifelogs (“spimes,” "blogjects," etc.) maintain a
narrative of use, environment and condition for
physical objects. User Lifelogs, ("life-caching," Nike+ and iPod: Personal trainer, global running community
“documented lives,” etc.) allow people to make similar
recordings of their own lives. Object lifelogs overlap Nike and Apple have formed a partnership to turn shoes
with the AR scenario, and both rely on AR information into lifelogs and personal trainers, using the iPod and the
networks and ubiquitous sensors. web. Tens of thousands of runners upload their running
statistics daily to the Nike Plus community. As their cost
Issues and Technologies drops steadily in coming years, many new object lifelog
Lifelogging is the capture, storage and distribution of opportunities will emerge. Would you pay an extra $10 for
everyday experiences and information for objects and a computer screen that logs a memory of its recent visual
people. This practice can serve as a way of providing states in case of a crash? What would you pay for lifelogs
useful historical or current status information, sharing on your car, keys and wallet? For a wallet that notified
unusual moments with others, for art and self- you if the credit cards weren’t quickly replaced within it?
expression, and increasingly, as a kind of "backup Used appropriately, object history and smartness can
memory," guaranteeing that what a person sees and improve our awareness, security, and productivity.
hears will remain available for later examination, as
desired—what Microsoft founder Bill Gates called a
“documented life” in The Road Ahead, 1995.
Lifelogging emerges from accelerating technological

trends in connectivity, bandwidth, storage capacity,
sensor accuracy, miniaturization, and affordability.
Nokia lifeblog organizes cell photos into an organic timeline

that can be annotated, mobile blogged, and shared.
User lifelogs are also in broad development. Perhaps the

TrackStick, a $200 GPS lifelog the size of a pack of gum most obvious examples of early user lifelogs are the
current generation’s widespread use of digital and cell
Object lifelogging is presently seeing a wide range of
phone cameras to document and share life experiences
incremental advances. GPS lifelogs like TrackStick
online. Leading phone makers like Nokia and websites
which interfaces to Google Earth, are concealable in
like Flickr have platforms to facilitate photo taking,
cars and objects, and are making inroads in law
annotating, sharing and mobile blogging.
enforcement. In the consumer market, Toyota Japan
offers in-car cameras, networked to the Toyota
Justin.tv, streamed to the web by Justin
Security Center, for auto theft prevention and recovery.
Kan via a small wearable headcam and
Some consumer in-car cameras now record outside the
four Verizon EV-DO cell modems
windows, to detect the license plates of cars that do
($240/month in bandwidth costs) is just
damage to the vehicle.
the latest example of early “lifecasting”
activities. Such systems may be affordable
As inexpensive car video lifelogs become widely
for youth and specialty use in the near-
available, able to relay the last several minutes of their
term roadmap horizon, and new “life
exterior visual footage to any phone number or email Justin.TV runs a
sharing” opportunities will emerge. 24/7 video ”lifecast”
address at the touch of a button, accidents, red-light
violations, unsafe driving, and other infractions may be
Metaverse Roadmap
MVR Survey Question 14. In 2016, what percentage of the
experiences (e.g., “show me that conversation last
U.S. population ages 13-30 will allow their trusted group to Summer when I was discussing abc with xyz.”).
view 3D images of what they are doing in realtime (through
wearable cameras) at least once a month, and to be able to
give feedback or advice? MVR Survey Question 15. In 2016, what percentage of the U.S.
Summit Survey: 29% of population population ages 13-30 will use 'lifelogging' systems during
Website Survey: 36% of population significant portions of their lives?
Summit Survey: 24% of population
Website Survey: 32% of population
Child security from abduction
is a presently a significant What is life like in this scenario?
public concern, and another Life in the lifelogging scenario has the potential to be
potential for near-term user simultaneously empowering and demoralizing, in the
lifelogs. Affordable localizer sense that the older generations may have some difficulty
devices that can be concealed adjusting and a nostalgia for simpler, earlier times.
by implant in the body are
likely decades away, and may For lifelogging adopters, retention of past experiences will
face high hurdles to public become functionally perfect, but recall and analysis of
acceptance. What is feasible in those experiences will only be as good as the web-based
the next ten years, however, Wearable sousveillance indexing and search software, which will constantly
are 3.5 and 4G security concept from Wearcam.org
improve itself over the lifespan of the user. Even with
cellphones, worn at the belt minimal analytical capabilities, such systems would be of
or like a necklace, on which the camera, by its red great value to experimental youth, to technology-inclined
light, is obviously on, recording, and wirelessly elderly (expect early uptake in Japan), to business people,
transmitting its image to a remote network. Such a to civil servants, and many others.
security lifelog, with automatic recording and manual
reviewing features, would capture criminal acts on A perfect memory isn't necessarily an ideal, at least by
video, even if the phone were immediately destroyed. current social standards. Human relationships are aided by
In the same way that CCTV cameras in car parks lower the consensual misremembering of slights, allowing the
car theft rates globally, such a device, worn by very sting of insults and personal offenses to fade over time.
young children and security conscious adults in public, With easy access to records of past wrongs, “I forgot,”
might have some protective effect for their wearers. will be much less frequent, and some will find it
Recording in school to prevent bullying, etc. would be impossible to "let bygones be bygones." On the positive
another potential use, and an obvious personal vs. side, new social accuracy will provide opportunities for
state’s rights issue to be adjudicated in coming years. individuals to more frequently admit their mistakes, and
after some ego adjustment, help them be more tolerant and
Lifelogging technologies offer two primary functions: open to a change of mind and behavior. We see such
first, they serve as a kind of "TiVo" for one's life, learning on some (not all) blogs today, which are accurate
recording the sights and sounds one encounters text-based lifelogs of past arguments in social space.
throughout the day; second, they enable collaborative
sharing and aggregation of life experiences. Both David Brin makes this point well in
functions are potentially socially-disruptive, even as The Transparent Society, 1999, an
they offer capabilities of immediate value to users. introduction to the social changes
we can expect in tomorrow’s highly
The primary technological hurdle for the mature virtualized and publicly transparent
lifelogging scenario isn't the hardware, but the society. Individuals in a democracy
software: how does one tag, index, search, and ultimately become nicer when their
summarize the terabytes of rich media archives of one's actions are available to social and
own life? Several technology companies (Microsoft’s self-observation, though not without
My Life Bits, etc.) are hard at work on this problem. a struggle. Behavior change is never
an easy process.
Beyond the near-term youth market, truly powerful
user lifelogs seem unlikely to emerge until we have Add network capability to this technology and life gets
intelligent autocaptioning and autosummarizing especially interesting. Unlike virtual worlds, lifelogging
systems, and a functional Conversational Interface won’t allow you to walk in another person's shoes, but it
(post 2016?), allowing voice-driven search on a does allow you to look at the world through another
wearable system through one’s archive of past person's eyes. Or multiple people's eyes: memories tagged
Metaverse Roadmap
for a particular time and place can call up similar of artificial general intelligence, lifelogging becomes one
recordings from others at the scene, giving an of several valuable pathways to a greater integration of
individual access to multiple perspectives on an event. human and machine “minds.”
Potential applications of such capacity are legion: more We should conclude our final scenario with a major
accuracy in law enforcement, better education, observation: the technologies in three of our four
training, counseling, self and social awareness, conflict scenarios, mirror worlds, augmented reality, and
resolution, etc. It is also a powerful example of lifelogging, will all strongly increase public
sousveillance ("watching from below") to balance the transparency—and with user consent, private transparency
surveillance (“watching from above”) ability of the as well—in coming years.
modern state.
Today, the How far might we take this transparency trend? Will we
WITNESS project's come to regard the present, an era where people can go out
online portal offers in public without biometrics or electronic signatures that
global human rights uniquely identify them to the network as a “Wild West” of
activists a place to crime and lawlessness?
send images and Witness.org: Lifelogging circa 2007
video documenting The far future is hard to visualize, but we can imagine
abuses by powerful actors; lifelogging technologies many socially attractive near- and longer-term
would make that possible for everyone. transparency steps along the way. How likely is it, for
example, that once they are sufficiently inexpensive and
Systems advanced enough to recognize objects, miniaturized, we will see laws mandating networks and
symbols and individual faces, visual AI tasks that lifelogs (eg., GPS-on-a-chip, feeding into a gun’s “flight
many experts expect to be accurate enough for general recorder”) to be installed on all our new small arms,
use in ten to twenty years, will offer powerful new weapons, explosives, and other mass lethal technologies
abilities not just to society but also to individuals. At a (Inputs 8Aj)? Would those democratic societies that
minimum, the software would be able to call up earlier pioneer such networked and localizable weapons (NLWs)
interactions for quick review, or at the very least a find they turn offensive technologies into defensive social
name and context. If systems can be readily networked, assets?
the lifelogging gear could call up references from
trusted friends and relatives, giving any one person
access to the collective social memory of her personal
network.
This has obvious implications for reputation networks.

Inevitably, once it's possible to access networked
Networked localizable weapons: A future lifelog development?
memory references about someone or something, users
will wish to share their opinions about their own
It seems reasonable to expect that the leading long-term
experiences with the subject. As long as the reputation
social trend in lifelogging will be grappling with the
network focuses on products and services, the group
impact of greatly elevated transparency, including all the
ratings will differ little from today's collaborative
inevitable attempts to hack, game or otherwise manipulate
product recommendation systems. Once the network
these systems. Security, privacy, fraud prevention, and the
begins to apply to other people, however, questions
protection of civil liberties for users and those recorded
will arise about liability for spreading harmful
will be ongoing concerns. As Justin.tv’s website header
misinformation. New legal frameworks will likely
says, “We’re going to need more lawyers.”
ensue.
We can also expect significantly different responses to
A leading technological trend over this time period will
these technologies country by country, particularly in their
be the increasing ability of lifelogging systems to make
early years. To generalize, we might look to security-
meaningful connections between disparate
conscious and innovative countries like Singapore, Israel,
"memories," both individual and collective. In its
South Africa, the U.S., and Korea for early innovation, to
fullest expression, such technology may become not
Asia for technical leadership, and perhaps to Europe and
simply a backup memory, but a backup sub-conscious,
the U.S. for legal innovations that define their use
offering powerful cognitive augmentation and advice
consistent with growing personal liberties and social
by past example. Viewed from the biggest picture,
responsibilities.
when coupled with ongoing work on the development
Metaverse Roadmap
How These Combine vice-versa, because the tools for one
are enablers for the other.
The Metaverse contains elements of
all four scenarios. At the same time, A link between the lifelogging and
their technologies broadly overlap, the virtual worlds scenarios is the
as in the use of a mirror world map emergence of a consistent digital
inside a virtual world, or a heads-up identity allowing for seamless
display AR system or object or user interaction between in-person and
lifelog inside a mirror or virtual virtual representations of other
world. There are also more general people. This requires the
ways the scenarios overlap. development of an infrastructure
Google Map of
World of Warcraft that is open across multiple
One link between the virtual platforms, secure against spoofing,
worlds and mirror worlds and able to recognize that you are
A link between the mirror worlds
scenarios is the refinement of digital you, regardless of how or where
and augmented reality scenarios is
models of environments, and the you're connecting. Advanced
the proliferation of sensors,
sense of immersion that results from identity, trust and reputation may be
networked devices, and intelligent
good models. At present, virtual slowest to emerge in virtual space,
materials. Both scenarios are
worlds for games, education, or where part of the allure is to
heavily dependent upon the
socializing have rudimentary recreate oneself outside of one’s
deployment of a
multitude of systems social history. But the growing
able to monitor and public transparency that will
influence properties of accompany advances in the other
the physical world—the three scenarios is likely to impact
primary difference is virtual worlds as well, though
the interface used to perhaps to a lesser degree.
access this data. The
two scenarios overlap
yet have their unique
strengths, with mirror
worlds effective as
tools of large-system
monitoring and control,
and augmented reality
systems effective as
mediators of personal
interaction and point
control.
physics models, and little if any
emergent or evolved phenomena— A link between the augmented Facebook Profile
they're scripted, static, or entirely reality and lifelogging scenarios is
dependent upon user creation. the development of a sophisticated
Conversely, today's best mirror interface for experiencing an
worlds have little sense of place or enhanced awareness of one's
immersion, limited real-time shared physical and social environment,
content (where the actions of one and sufficient network capacity to
user changes what other users see), support full-time personal use. As
and restrictions on what users can described in the scenarios, the most
do within the environment. effective AR and user lifelogging
Improvements in either version of systems are likely to be unobtrusive
simulated worlds will come from wearable devices, which hand off
lessons learned by examining the most of their computation-intensive
alternative. tasks to the network. Again, an
augmented reality future will have
some elements of lifelogging, and
Metaverse Roadmap
Cross-Scenario Issues because (in principle) everyone starts
with more-or-less a blank slate, that
most important infrastructure
technology for the Metaverse.
Given that our four scenarios are fame and fortune isn't contingent
not mutually-exclusive—and in fact upon fame or fortune elsewhere. That said, the vision of what our
often mutually-reinforcing—it world could look like once these
makes sense to address their social Yet as interoperability and problems are sufficiently solved is
and business benefits, challenges commercialization move into the generally appealing. Both
and questions from a cross-scenario VW space, the experimental and augmented reality and mirror worlds
perspective. anonymous feel of today’s most offer context-aware versions of
popular virtual worlds (e.g., Second Google or Wikipedia available
Social Benefits and Life) may subside. Better digital simply at a glance, while lifelogging
Challenges identity and reputation, and the entry and virtual worlds, being more
of major physical world brands, intrinsically personal, offer tools for
Relationships and Identity celebrities, and interests into social a more detailed understanding of
Metaverse technologies are intensely VWs may convert the majority of one's own life and relationships.
social. As a result, the most widely- them into more mundane and Whether this means an improved
felt impacts coming from the restrictive varieties of social understanding, especially in the early
development of these tools will be in relationship and identity. Perhaps years of these technologies, is
personal and social relationships. only the theme-based game worlds, another question. And while the
Not all of these impacts will be and less popular social VWs will high-profile, edge-case uses of these
good. remain havens for identity privacy tools may garner the most attention,
(even as true anonymity disappears), their everyday, prosaic uses (for
At the community level, the and identity and relationship personal commerce, for casual
proliferation of sensory and analysis experimentation. communication, for education) will
tools, either worn or embedded in be far more important in effect.
the world, arguably makes deception Information and Education
or abuse of others more difficult. Information access is a recurring The particular benefits and
Public misbehavior or duplicity theme across the four scenarios, challenges accruing to future
becomes part of the public record, whether about the world or about education are worth calling out.
and the development of reputation oneself. Certainly access is no Unlike today, where even
networks would make it hard to live panacea; for much of the world, the participatory platforms like
down past misdeeds or mistakes. If problem isn't the lack of information, Wikipedia try to limit their entries to
this "mutual assured transparency" is but the lack of ability to find the people and events generally
equivalent across social divisions, right information. Filters, metadata, considered “notable,” in the
the technology could have a leveling tags and search systems may be the Metaverse future we’ll have at our
effect, reducing the opportunities for
abuses of power; if the transparency
is effectively one-way, where the
rich and powerful could limit their
information shadows but still see
those of everyone else, these
technologies would be ripe for
abuse.
Such transparency and reputation

issues have already started to arise in
virtual communities, places where
many participants experiment with
social rules under alternative
identities. The ability within these
spaces to have status, capabilities
and recognition far greater than the
physical world has proven a highly
attractive feature. Like the physical
world, virtual environments provide
benefits based on skills, social
networks and personality, but Artist’s rendition of online communities, 2007
Metaverse Roadmap
fingertips the biographies, personal Most ominously, Metaverse smallest Metaverse-using retailer
trajectories and intimate glimpses technologies could be used by large the current logistics power of a
into the lives and behaviors of institutions, particularly major Wal*Mart, the analysis power of an
ordinary individuals, organizations corporations and governments, to Accenture, and the research power
and locations around the world. At maintain and worsen social, of an IBM.
the same time, we'll run the risk of political, and economic inequalities
building overly-subjective appraisals in today’s only partially democratic For specialized businesses, the
of the world, relying too heavily societies. There are myriad control Metaverse will be of substantial
upon individual observations, and and access issues ahead in both the benefit to those seeking a better
insufficiently upon considered, near- and longer-term. If network understanding of the more subtle
detached analysis. neutrality is compromised, if walled global systems. Transnational
gardens are allowed unfair companies will love the Metaverse,
Transparency and Political competitive advantage, if internet as will academics and activists
Power monopolies aren’t aggressively trying to better understand
The rise of the Metaverse countered, in the coming generation globalization and sustainability in
underscores already-extant, serious Metaverse developments could the new era. Transportation, product
social, political, and economic concentrate power into a limited set data and responses to customer
questions about information. Who of hands, and create transparency needs can be made much more
decides what sources of information only for the “underclass.” efficient. For designers and
should be visible, and what should Monitoring the populace would be corporations, such information
be obscure? Are there only a few simple, and with the wrong access will make "mass
central sources for descriptions of application of "everyware" customization" production and
"locations, events and communities technologies, so too would be the niche marketing cost-effective.
of interest" (creating a serious manipulation and limitation of
potential for bias and inaccuracy), choice. For businesses producing or selling
or is such information pluralistic commodity goods, the abundant
and emergent from the individual In addition to enlightened “top- information will continue eroding
contributions of participants, down” leadership, continued margins and rewarding automation
(making self-promotion, vandalism “bottom-up” activism, to ensure on “commodity” products and
and other petty abuses likely)? increasingly democratic and services, and at the same time
What happens when filters create a pluralistic access to and control of creating demand for innovative new
distorted view of a topic or these technologies, seems dimensions to products and
location? Who decides what's fundamentally important to services. Price, product and service
correct? Who pays for abuses? responsible global development. comparisons will be available at a
glance, undermining the power of
Simply choosing to opt out is little brand as differentiator, unless tied
help. If these technologies become to Metaverse metrics.
as commonplace and important as
we believe they will, people who This is a world where “big box”
choose not to participate may end retailers may extend their services
up as left out of commercial and to “little box” subsidiaries (eg.,
civic discourse as Web-ignorant Jeff Han's multi-touch screen Wal*Mart, Vons, etc. taking over
people are today. If lifelogging and many of the local liquor/sundries
augmented reality technologies Business Benefits and stores). Monopolies of convenience
becomes commonplace, those who Challenges (e.g., uncompetitive local choices
have access to complete records and for basic goods and services) will be
fee-based databases may have a big Information Shadows an ongoing risk and regulatory
advantage over those who can only Increasingly, businesses talk about challenge.
access the free data, or worse yet, the "information shadow" of the
still rely exclusively on their faulty products and services they provide: Where local convenience is not a
"meat" memories. In the long-term the records of contacts, sources, factor, businesses will need to offer
future, the choice of operating deliveries, versions and so on that buyer-specific services to hold onto
without personal memory offer a complete history of a regular customers; fortunately, the
technology may even render one business offering. In coming years, information shadows about people
unemployable for many the richness of information shadows will make that task simpler, and
professional tasks. in virtual space promises even the herald a whole new level of
Metaverse Roadmap
consumer behavior modeling and Skillful use of the emerging medium Transparency and
predictive marketing. For that in its earliest stages requires ongoing Reputation
reason, privacy (as discussed employee education, low-risk The important questions about
below) will be a heightened concern experimentation, and the desire to transparency apply to the world of
in the world of the Metaverse. “learn a new language” of business as readily as they do to the
information design. Those companies world of politics. The generation
that get it first may have a significant growing up on blogs, MySpace and
competitive advantage over the Flickr will likely embrace Metaverse
laggards—both in business categories tools as a means of operating in as
that reward first movers, and in those transparent a fashion as possible.
that reward “fast followers,”
companies that use a new medium Customers who are well-served will
primarily to watch and learn from the be public with their happiness;
early adopters, and then step in customers who feel cheated will be
Google Map pin edited into physical space
quickly later as prices drop, markets all the more vocal in their
Leadership and mature, and experience mounts. unhappiness. Moreover, it will be
Competition easy for customers to discover that
The social dimensions of the they have been cheated, simply
Metaverse have business implications because of the ease with which they
as well. Many MVR participants can uncover information regarding
noted that the leadership and competitors, suppliers, and other
collaboration skills required in virtual customers.
environments are increasingly well-
suited to excelling in the business This is true even if reputation
world. In coming years, quest network technologies don't emerge.
management in virtual worlds, or If they do, the benefits and
winning entrepreneurial serious challenges for business are further
games may be as valid as sports team multiplied. In a reputation network
leadership or other traditional version of the Metaverse, good
experience for executive training. actions are easily rewarded and
misbehavior is only slowly
Mixed-reality event in Second Life
Questions about leadership are forgotten. For many businesses, this
particularly important in a world Early adoption benefits individuals will be akin to having a
seeing a major economic and in today’s social virtual worlds like collaborative, always-available
technological transformation. The Second Life, which currently has 2 version of Consumer Reports
challenges facing businesses moving million active users (logged in last tracking their every step.
into the Metaverse will be analogous 60 days) and $1.5M of daily
to those that faced in building a web economic transactions. It also
presence, or globalizing operations to benefits companies serving those
stay competitive. users, and may soon apply to virtual
companies inside such worlds.
Early adopters will try to figure out
how to best use the new medium at Early adoption benefits are also
each stage of its development, not proven in mirror worlds, which
always successfully. Business models already have a large GIS user Xbox Live marketplace
for the use of Metaverse tools may be community, and where competitive
non-obvious, and new competitive advantages can be built around GIS Even more than other media that
environments are always rife with awareness as new global systems have come before it, we can expect
experimentation which eventually and processes come into simulation. the Metaverse to amplify our
dies away. It's possible that many of In developed countries with good individual, corporate and
the for-profit groups currently digital networks, augmented reality institutional winners and losers, both
exploring Second Life, for example, and object lifelogging may not be far economically and in the theatre of
won't stick it out long enough to behind MWs and VW’s as public opinion, across a bewildering
make it profitable. innovation spaces and competencies variety of attributes and values, and
worth exploring for today’s global for a growing network of cultures
virtual businesses. and subcultures.
Metaverse Roadmap
Big Questions
Privacy and
Control
In many respects, the
biggest question about
the emergence of the
Metaverse concerns
privacy.
Abuse of privacy fears

have already slowed the
growth of the RFID tag
industry, and remain a Hitachi’s Mu Chip, an RFID “powder” small enough to put in paper currency.
common response to
both the expansion of
official surveillance capabilities and the growing Integration and Acceptance
presence of camera phones; it's highly likely that The degree to which Metaverse technologies can be
"everyware" and lifelogging technologies will elicit a integrated into existing social, economic and political
similar reaction. Early versions of mirror world, AR, behaviors is one factor influencing the overall public
and lifelogging technologies could be caricatured as acceptance of these systems.
"Total Information Access" revisited. Depending upon
who is building and has access to those tools, such a Of the four aspects of the Metaverse we have outlined,
characterization may not be too far off the mark. the augmentation scenarios (augmented reality and
lifelogging) seem the most like our current world, at
Even if the technology works well, it may emerge in a least in their early forms: many more portable devices
culture where social trends point away from ubiquitous populating wireless networks; abundant information (if
observation and relentless transparency. If people in we can get to it); increasing surveillance by
the developed world begin to believe that their privacy commercial and official entities, yet a growing gap
has been too easily undermined by commonly- between technologies employed in private vs. the
available technologies, they will be more likely to push slower government sectors. Examined more closely,
for restrictions on those technologies rather than however, it is clear that the networked portions of these
expansion. We could get a similar outcome if the form scenarios are quite dependent upon the presence of
of social transparency that seems to be emerging is one common protocols and interfaces connecting the
where scrutiny doesn't cross class boundaries. various information sources and points of access. They
are also dependent upon public interest in abundant
Some would say that present-day levels of social information clouds. Do people really want to know
transparency in democratic societies put the lives of the “everything” going on around them? If so, how rapidly
rich and powerful under a far more intense public lens will they develop a social, political, and legal
than that applied to ordinary citizens. Whether this is consensus? In which domains will consensus emerge
sufficiently effective to reduce corruption at the top is first, and in which will it be delayed?
another question. It has been argued that it is more
practical to aim accountability reforms at mid- and The virtual worlds scenario
low-level government and business positions in the is more complicated. The
process of reform (Singapore, as one example), at least various existing virtual
in the early stages of transparency development. world-type systems,
multiplayer games and
One of the more subtle engines for both centralization social environments, have
of power and public backlash may be intellectual been around in some form
property (IP) concerns. Existing IP laws are almost for decades, and their
certain to blunt the capabilities of any technologies that partisans are the most likely
Simplified 3D Creation in
record or access copyrighted content, at least in the to embrace the overarching Will Wright's Spore
near-term. Any but the simplest and weakest digital concept of a "Metaverse."
rights management (DRM) systems are likely to be Some of the most important developments in large-
both ineffective and obtrusive, reducing the group remote interaction, identity creation, and object
attractiveness of many Metaverse technologies. design have taken place in virtual worlds settings, and
the likely near-future advances in these systems,
Metaverse Roadmap
particularly with regards to persistent identity, should Technological Viability
lay the groundwork for even more advanced interfaces In conclusion, all our scenarios assume that Metaverse
and capabilities. technologies will work as expected.
At the same time, the vision presented in the virtual The software aspects of the lifelogging world are a
worlds scenario is one of a fairly substantive set of major challenge. Developing the tagging, indexing and
changes to everyday behavior, requiring adjustments to search software necessary for a widely-usable user
how we conceive of work, economic status, lifelogging system—including systems for recognizing
communities, and relationships. Such changes would faces and locations in images, correlating ambiguous
experience strong social resistance in some sectors. connections for searches, and making it all accessible
Similarly, questions remain as to the viability of the for non-technical users—is a sufficiently-hard problem
virtual world format outside current niches. In that most MVR participants expected only rudimentary
multiplayer games, only fantasy-based environments versions of these technologies during the next decade.
(dragons, wizards and superheroes) have seen lasting
success; with social virtual worlds, their influence and Similarly, the mirror worlds and augmented reality
media visibility have yet to be matched by actual scenarios depend upon a functional array of sensor
participation numbers. Neither form of VW has yet had technologies distributed widely and densely enough to
the kind of breakthrough success that would broadly provide both useful details and meaningful context.
attract non-youth, non-early adopter communities, Power sources, networking protocols, and universal
though either may “tip” in that direction soon. access vs. proprietary control remain unanswered
questions.
The dark horse scenario is mirror worlds. Although it
seems the least flashy of the four, as it continues to
develop it might remain the most important to existing
organizations even in the longer term, as a tool for
learning about and an interface for competitively
managing the physical world. While the underlying
technologies (supercomputing, simulations, virtual
Earth software, sensors, etc.) are all currently available
in rudimentary form, the particular combination is
ambitious in scope, and the largest professional
community, the GIS community, is currently behind
the development of this scenario.
Exergames: virtual fighting with the Nintendo Wii
No discussion of social integration
and acceptance of the Metaverse And both virtual worlds and mirror worlds, at least in
would be complete without their early stages, depend upon a popular willingness to
considering the mass collaborations engage with 3D information using a 2D interface.
now beginning to occur on our While this is fine for narrow types of work and casual
current “Web 2.0” version of the entertainment, it's unclear whether such “psuedo-3D”
Participatory Web. To better offers a sufficiently immersive experience to trigger
understand today’s early versions of the necessary economic and social changes that would
2D and 3D Internet collaboration make our Metaverse scenarios a reality in the near or
we recommend Wikinomics by Don longer term. At the same time, full-immersion 3D, aka
Tapscott (2006), Infotopia by Cass Sunstein (2006), virtual reality, has its own drawbacks and technical
and Synthetic Worlds, by Edward Castronova (2006). challenges, and is likely to remain only a niche
application for entertainment and training for the
As each of these books remind us, foreseeable future.
even in these early days the
Metaverse offers unique new ways For more on issues and questions ahead, please see
to form social groups, to model our Issues and Choices (Sec. 14), Ideas and Proposals (Sec.
environment (both physical and 15) and Key Uncertainties (Sec. 16) in the MVR
abstract), to test out possibilities and Inputs.
explore our options, and, ultimately,
to practice safer and more positive-
sum experiments with the future.
Metaverse Roadmap
The Metaverse Scenario
Despite many open questions, it's clear that the technologies of the Metaverse are likely to change how we live, work
and play over the near-term, possibly in transformative ways in the longer-term. Improving foresight in this space is
both a wise business strategy and a broad social good.
While we have considered the Metaverse in four separate scenarios, the future will combine
elements of each, as well as many others not mentioned here. Some near-term developments,
such as cellular phone technologies, have such broad utility and extensive capital investments
they must be key elements in any story of tomorrow. Other aspects, such as the use of virtual
worlds for significant amounts of work and commerce, are more tentative, but serve today as
useful provocations. Recurring themes such as security and crime, transparency, information
access and equity, privacy, liberty, and control reflect ancient competing interests on what is
simply the latest stage of technical capabilities. Social conflicts will shape the path of
Metaverse development in uncertain and divergent ways, culture by culture, even while the global advance of these
technologies appears to have a number of predictable and universal aspects.
Our scenarios will be influenced by all of the broader concerns facing the planet. Ethnic strife, political instability and
war, energy, water, and other resource issues, trade, globalization, economic growth and poverty, environmental
degradation and sustainability initiatives, migration, scientific and engineering advances, education and the media,
ancient drives for intimacy, individuation, and spirituality, our emerging digital and participatory culture, unknown
surprises and catastrophes, all of these and more will shape the technology development and adoption choices in
tomorrow’s Metaverse.
Most importantly for each of us, at this pivotal moment in human history, there are unique opportunities for
enlightened corporate, political, and social leadership in Metaverse exploration and development. We propose that the
best use of the Metaverse Scenarios and Inputs in this inaugural roadmap is not simply to consider them for near-term
economic potential, but to ask how these technologies might help or hinder our ability to manage humanity’s larger
concerns, both now and in the future. How might we use the various forms of the Metaverse to guide our response to
global warming, and the emergence of “climate neutral” energy and transportation? How might we use these systems
to avert a war, improve an election, reduce crime and poverty, or put an end to human rights abuses? How might we
use the Metaverse, in the words of Jonas Salk, to become "good ancestors" to our descendants?
The potential is there. In just ten years (1996-2006), global Internet use has gone from 36 million to 1 billion, or from
1% to 16% of the world’s population (Inputs 8Ba). Nevertheless, this is still only a fraction of the talented and
passionate human beings who are patiently waiting for affordable access to tomorrow’s Participatory Web. In the
meantime, there are many clever examples of mass online creativity, collaboration and innovation that we can
champion today, and sound strategies guiding our emerging transparency and exploding information base into useful
context and social value.
For inspiring and practical statements of the 3D and virtual promise ahead, please see the Vision Statements (Sec. 5) of
the MVR Inputs, provided by MVR participants. We hope you have enjoyed this Overview, and look forward to your
feedback at roadmap@accelerating.org to help us prepare for the next roadmap. Please join our mailing list if you
would like to be informed of upcoming MVR activities, and we wish you the best in the extraordinary journey ahead.
John Smart Acceleration Studies Foundation

Editor; Co-Author
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Corporation
Bridget C. Agabra
Project Manager 2227 Amirante, San Pedro, CA 90732
Jerry Paffendorf Office: 310.831.4191 • Fax: 310.548.5304
Graphic Design: FizBit.com
Community Director; Co-Author

Jamais Cascio
Scenario Foresight Specialist; Co-Author
Citation: Smart, E.J., Cascio, J. and Paffendorf, J., Metaverse Roadmap Overview, 2007.
2007. Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License.
Metaverse Roadmap
Appendix
A twenty-two question survey of key uncertainties

3. By 2016, U.S. courts will rule that U.S. banking
in the Metaverse future was developed and laws apply to the management and exchange of
administered to our 50 summit experts (30 virtual economic assets in some synthetic worlds
responded) and also briefly posted for public and to their related financial markets.
input at the MVR website (115 to 136 responded). Summit Survey
N = 30
Mean = 3.73
1. In 2016, U.S. law will require U.S.-based 3D world
providers to employ any of a variety of third-party
'verified' digital identity systems.
Summit Survey
N = 30
Mean = 3.10
Website Survey
N = 132
Mean = 3.48
4. By 2016, U.S. regulators will rule that U.S.

securities and investment laws apply to at least
Website Survey some 3D world stock exchanges or investment
N = 136 markets.
Mean = 2.99
Summit Survey
N = 30
2. In 2016, the most popular global 3D worlds (by Mean = 3.57
user base) will allow the importing of user trust and
reputation rating systems from a variety of other
online environments.
Summit Survey
N = 30
Mean = 3.87
Website Survey
N = 133
Mean = 3.35
Website Survey
N = 134
Mean = 3.94
Metaverse Roadmap A Cross-Industry Public Foresight Project

Pathways to the 3D Web 24
Appendix
5. By 2016 we will have seen an internet-type 7. In 2016, to what degree will the declaration and
financial boom-and-bust cycle in the U.S., including taxation of 3D world assets be addressed in U.S.
a loss of more than 50% of stock value, occur with at federal, state, or local tax codes?
least one publicly traded index of virtual world
companies. Summit Survey
N = 30
Summit Survey Mean = 1.90
N = 29
Mean = 3.17
Website Survey
N = 132
Mean = 1.73
Website Survey
N = 132
Mean = 3.23
8. In 2016, what percentage of global 3D virtual world
and game commerce will occur in worlds that are
operated under each of the following business
6. Within the next five years, a leading global web models?
company will launch, or buy and launch, a 3D virtual
world where users are encouraged to engage in Summit Survey Website Survey
economic transactions and own as legal property
products they create in the world.
Summit Survey
N = 30
Mean = 4.20
Open Source
Proprietary
9. In 2016, what percentage of global 3D virtual world

and game commerce will occur under each of the
following content development models?
Website Survey Summit Survey Website Survey

N = 133
Mean = 4.18
Worlds and games with primarily (by total objects in

world/game) user-created content
Worlds and games with primarily (by total objects in

world/game) professionally-created content

Appendix
10. In 2016, what percentage of global video, TV, and 14. In 2016, what percentage of the U.S. population
film commerce will occur on each of the following ages 13-30 will allow their trusted group to view 3D
delivery platforms? images of what they are doing in realtime (through
wearable cameras) at least once a month, and to be
Summit Survey Website Survey able to give feedback or advice?
Summit Survey Website Survey

N = 28 N = 111
Mean = 29% Mean = 36%
Carriers that are open access/competitive 15. In 2016, what percentage of the U.S. population
Carriers that are proprietary/monopoly ages 13-30 will use 'lifelog' systems during
significant portions of their lives?

11. In 2016, what percentage of global video, TV, and N = 28 N = 111
film commerce will occur under each of the Mean = 24% Mean = 32%
following content development models?

16. In 2016, when distributed work groups in more
developed countries (MDCs) are collaborating
online, what percentage of the time will they use
voice-enabled 3D applications as opposed to 2D-
only collaboration software?

Video, TV and film with primarily user-created content N = 28 N = 111
Video, TV and film with primarily professionally-created Mean = 47% Mean = 53%
content
17. In 2016, what percentage of internet users in

12. In 2016, what percentage of global mobile device more developed countries (MDCs) will use an
users will have always-on broadband internet interactive 3D avatar at least once a week for any
accessibility from their devices? purpose other than games and entertainment,
including socializing, communication, creativity,
Summit Survey Website Survey education, barter, commerce, exercise, etc?
N = 28 N = 112
Mean = 81% Mean = 79% Summit Survey Website Survey
N = 28 N = 112
Mean = 50% Mean = 52%
13. In 2016, what percentage of U.S. automobiles will
have at least partially 3D automobile navigation
systems?

N = 27 N = 111
Mean = 41% Mean = 36%

Appendix
18. In 2016, what percentage of U.S. households will 20. When do you expect to see either a leading
have each of the following applications available in global political or economic body advocate
their home media center/console/PC? unrestricted access to globally shared virtual worlds
as a recommended international policy or
Summit Survey liberalization guideline?
a. Interactive internet-based
N = 28 Mean = 71%
television/video Summit Survey
b. 3D teleconferencing N = 28 Mean = 44%
c. 3D virtual worlds and
N = 28 Mean = 68%
MMO games
Website Survey
a. Interactive internet-based
N = 110 Mean = 73%
television/video
b. 3D teleconferencing N = 110 Mean = 48%
Website Survey
c. 3D virtual worlds and
N = 110 Mean = 64%
MMO games
19. For users in the U.S., when will the average

query length used in leading search applications
grow to seven words (voice or text)?
Summit Survey
21. In 2016, of the top 100 global 3D-enhanced online

environments how many belong in each of the
following interoperability categories?
Website Survey
Strongly Interoperable
Mildly Interoperable
Walled Gardens

Appendix
22. 2016, how many hours per week (0-20+) will a typical member of the U.S. population ages 13-30 use
interactive, internet-accessing, 3D visual environments for EACH of the following activities?
Social Entertainment and Social Entertainment and

N = 24 Mean = 10.5 N = 93 Mean = 12.5
Communication Communication
Income Production N = 24 Mean = 8.5 Income Production N = 90 Mean = 11.6
Solo Entertainment N = 24 Mean = 7.4 Solo Entertainment N = 94 Mean = 9.1
Education and Creativity N = 24 Mean = 5.6 Education and Creativity N = 91 Mean = 9.0
e-Commerce N = 24 Mean = 3.9 e-Commerce N = 90 Mean = 5.5
Navigation N = 24 Mean = 3.4 Navigation N = 86 Mean = 3.6
Exercise N = 24 Mean = 1.7 Exercise N = 87 Mean = 3.0
Assessment N = 24 Mean = 1.3 Assessment N = 85 Mean = 2.1


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LEAD SPONSOR FOUNDING PARTNERS

Other Contributors and Reviewers

The MVR has “near-term” The MVR comprises two

MVR Survey Question 17. In 2016, what percentage of

MVR Survey Question 8. In 2016, what percentage of global 3D

MVR Survey Question 21. In 2016, of the top 100 global

Virtual house in Sims 2. When will our favorite virtual objects

Amazon’s Block View, street-level GIS images

Amazon’s BlockView (2004-2006), was an early effort at

The first digital mirror worlds were government-built

As GPS migrates to the car and Google Maps on the

What is life like in this scenario?

Artist’s idea of augmented reality heads-up display (HUD)

Augmented reality depends on the further development

Steve Jobs demos the iPhone.

MVR Survey Question 12. In 2016, what percentage of

Lifelogging emerges from accelerating technological

Nokia lifeblog organizes cell photos into an organic timeline

User lifelogs are also in broad development. Perhaps the

This has obvious implications for reputation networks.

Such transparency and reputation

Abuse of privacy fears

John Smart Acceleration Studies Foundation

Community Director; Co-Author

A twenty-two question survey of key uncertainties

4. By 2016, U.S. regulators will rule that U.S.

Metaverse Roadmap A Cross-Industry Public Foresight Project

9. In 2016, what percentage of global 3D virtual world

Website Survey Summit Survey Website Survey

Worlds and games with primarily (by total objects in

Worlds and games with primarily (by total objects in

Metaverse Roadmap A Cross-Industry Public Foresight Project

Summit Survey Website Survey

Summit Survey Website Survey

Summit Survey Website Survey

Summit Survey Website Survey

17. In 2016, what percentage of internet users in

Summit Survey Website Survey

Metaverse Roadmap A Cross-Industry Public Foresight Project

19. For users in the U.S., when will the average

21. In 2016, of the top 100 global 3D-enhanced online

Summit Survey Website Survey

Metaverse Roadmap A Cross-Industry Public Foresight Project

Summit Survey Website Survey

Social Entertainment and Social Entertainment and

Metaverse Roadmap A Cross-Industry Public Foresight Project

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