2019 International Conference on Computing, Mathematics and Engineering Technologies – iCoMET 2019

Machine Learning In Power Markets

Bilal Asghar Farooqi Dr. Ali Abbas Kazmi Abdul Kashif Janjua
U.S.- Pakistan Center for Advanced U.S.- Pakistan Center for Advanced U.S.- Pakistan Center for Advanced
Studies in Energy Studies in Energy Studies in Energy
National University of Science & National University of Science & National University of Science &
Technology Technology Technology
Islamabad, Pakistan Islamabad, Pakistan Islamabad, Pakistan
bilalasghar@outlook.com saakazmi@uspcase.nust.edu.pk kjanjua91@gmail.com

Abstract—Intelligent operational planning ensures supply and office on no-profit, no-loss and electric cooperatives which are
demand matching in a power system, which is achieved governed by members responsible for investing and policy
traditionally by optimization and scheduling of government and making [3].Furthermore, concept of power market is widely
private owned non-renewable power plants. Recently, adopted throughout the world-which includes a system
encouragement has been extended to local and distributed power
generators, due to uncertainty and long-term variability in
operator, buying electricity from a facility on a negotiated
renewable rich system. In the study, machine learning approaches price and sells electricity to the customer with profit, serving
are proposed in the context of power markets to learn and predict as an escrow responsible for management of generation,
usage patterns to avoid power deficit. A case study is presented, transmission , distribution and billing [4].
which includes a solar plant and a wind farm for base load along
with bio-gas plant for peak load. To predict peak load, logistic Traditionally electric market is large, monopolistic, vertical
regression, a supervised machine learning approach, has been and state owned responsible for generation, transmission and
employed to classify the time of engagement, in order to ensure distribution as shown in Figure-1 [5].
supply and demand balance. Applying logistic regression will result
in reduced operational and economic cost for utility and price for
consumer.

Keywords—Machine learning, Power Market, Power System,

Renewable Energy Systems

I. INTRODUCTION
Electricity being the efficient form of secondary energy
storage is considered a commodity and regarded as a major
source of modern survival. The demand of electricity is
increasing due to increase proliferation of smart devices,
electronic appliances, population and economic growth;
however, achievement of supply-demand balance is still a
critical task. Additionally, sufficient growth of electricity
production could not be witnessed to meet the demand that is
why consumers face load shedding of 8-12 hours a day in
developing countries [1]. To mitigate supply demand
imbalance, modern world is shifting from traditional energy
resources to renewable energy resources. The Danish
Government’s plan to create green growth by shifting power Fig. 1 Traditional Power Market
generation from 100 percent renewable energy resources by To increase compliance with the proliferation of renewable
2050 [2]. This transformation inherently brings benefits and and distributed generation, increase in competition within the
challenges of complex nature. However, evolution of markets is established by deregulation as shown in Figure-2.
restructured power markets around the world making local This is achieved by splitting up vertically integrated power
generation feasible and viable. Developed countries are producers and privatization of state-owned utilities. To
heavily investing in renewable infrastructure development as enhance performance of aforementioned entities, deregulation
well as electric utilities. is introduced to break natural monopoly in order to establish
competition within the market. However, consumer-end
Electric utilities include investor own faculties governed by deregulation is achieved by introducing competition to reduce
Power Purchase Agreement between investor and controller, power cost for customers.
public power system or municipalities governed by public

978-1-5386-9509-8/19/$31.00 ©2019 IEEE

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Supply-demand balance is achieved by establishing wholesale Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning are poised to
and retail markets where customer get the least price and revolutionize the way utilities produce, transmit and consume
supplier get maximum profit as shown in Figure-3 [6]. energy by powering the modern smart grid.AI can help cutting
Moreover, markets use either day ahead or intraday trading consumer bills and managing power generation. Global
and price clearing mechanisms, which can be achieved via demand of low-carbon, green electricity with low cost is
increasing and AI applications are increasingly being used to
meet this demand with potentially huge long-term impact [11].
Machine learning is a field of artificial intelligence that uses
statistical techniques to give computer systems the ability to
learn from data without being explicitly programmed [12].

Advanced computational enhancements have enabled us to

use multiple machine learning techniques to exploit the
already available data in day ahead auction archives. Support
Vector Machine (SVM) is a machine learning technique that
maps inputs to a feature space and then the predicted outcome
is calculated as a linear function in the new feature space.
Energy demand management is performed by using
Fig. 2 Before and after deregulation
reinforcement learning, a machine learning technique that
recognizes consumption pattern of each consumer via ranking
decentralized auctioning. Usually real-time trading is used as
to increase energy savings on the basis of variable market
kind of balancing mechanism to adjust the predetermined
prices. It is worth mentioning that no historical data is required
quantities of the day-ahead forecasting [7].
and algorithms will be able to navigate and detect optimal
action in real time [13]. Regression is one of the most
renowned technique for such operation which considers both
linear and nonlinear effects by analyzing the effects of energy
consumption. It provides better empirical model and these
types of models are widely used for demand forecasting for
medium to long-term time period [14-15].

In this study, supervised machine learning approach i.e.

logistic regression is used to meet supply demand balance via
scheduling and engaging a new utility whenever required to
achieve non-intermittency by predicting the possibility of
load-shedding.

II. LITERATURE REVIEW

Contrary to conventional grids, better solutions are provided
Fig. 3 Restructured retail and wholesale power markets
by smart grid for outage losses, power quality degradation by
providing reliable, highly sustainable and environmentally
European Union (EU) electricity system comprises of
friendly power system. Special attributes for smart grid are
electricity suppliers, consumers, transmission system operators
self-healing for power disturbance events, accommodation of
(TSO), and distribution network operators (DSO). The role of
Distributed Generation (DG), promotion of active
system operators (SO) is to forecast day ahead demand,
participation by consumers in Demand Response (DR),
schedule generation, share schedules with other operators
protection from both cyber and physical attacks and
connected in a system and finally adjust generation and
environment friendliness [16]. According to European
transmission resources in real time by fixing grid parameters
Commission (EC) report, the smart grid must be, reliable,
to avoid or restore electric power if there is an outage [8].
economical, accessible, and flexible [17].
Incorporating huge amount of DERs is causing intermittency
and complexity in power flows and financial management.
In decentralized system, local communities are arranged in
Adoption of decentralized market approaches like blockchain
microgrids in which energy generation, transmission,
can also help reducing complexity of monetary transactions.
distribution and even storage can be strategically used to
Moreover, supply demand balance can be achieved via
balance load and demand spikes [18]. A microgrid is a group
distributed load control, demand side management and state of
of interconnected loads and distributed energy resources
the art transactive energy techniques [9-10].
within clearly defined electrical boundaries that acts as a
single controllable entity with respect to the grid [19].

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Different electricity sources and different control strategies are theory. [41] gives a comparison of various time-series
the difference between microgrid and conventional grid in modeling approaches for forecasting of spot electricity prices.
power market. However, the main distinction among them is [42] compares the linear and non-linear time-series models for
different participants and different purpose of introducing forecasting of electricity prices for California electricity
electricity markets [20]. Energy trading market is flexible as market. [43] describes approaches to model the electricity
the change of energy price in real time pricing environment is prices.
due to changing operational parameters. Commonly used In literature, focus is on forecasting and pricing but
energy pricing schemes are Real Time Pricing (RTP), Time- classification of scenarios for predictive analysis is not widely
Of-Use (TOU) pricing, Peak Rebate Pricing (PRP), Critical discussed. Thus, logistic regression, a classification-based
Peak Pricing (CPP), and Day ahead (DA) pricing. The machine learning algorithm will forecast the need for a new
ultimate goal of power markets is to achieve supply-demand generation by predicting increase in demand in a day ahead
balance as well as maximization of benefits for all. Therefore, market [44]. It will help utilities predicting the demand from
machine learning approaches are studied to forecast the consumers in days, weeks, and months to ensure availability
predicted load and consumer behavior to pre-plan the of sufficient generation from power resources. Hence, no need
generation (renewable or non-renewables) based on the price, of demand side management or transactive energy where
location, efficiency, need and stability of the power system consumers were engaged to vary their consumption pattern
[21]. [45].

Under-estimation and over-estimation are problems with III. CASE STUDY

linear system estimation. Modern and powerful techniques are Several machine learning and Artificial Intelligence (AI)
adopted by researchers to develop better load-flow models approaches are used for prediction, pricing, and forecasting. In
[22]. Such techniques come from both statistical and Artificial the present research, logistic regression has been employed as
Intelligence (AI) domains. The statistical category includes a classification technique. A solar plant, a wind farm and a
time series [23], regression-based method [24], radial basis bio-gas plant located at National University of Science &
functions [25], and support vector regression (SVR) [26]. Technology (NUST), Pakistan were taken as case study.
Generation facilities apart from aforementioned renewable
In time series analysis, the modeling approach involves - energy resources are taken to be as constant and data set for
identification, estimation and validation. This approach is load has been utilized as a demand of center of advance
useful for applying any information available for the future to studies (CES) at NUST to predict future requirement of
the models that are trained on past data. Whereas, AI methods standby plant engagement in a particular timeslot. CES is a
include expert systems and artificial neural networks (ANN) research center where research activities are carried out
[27-28]. SVM is a statistical tool for classification and between 8am to 6pm with flexible schedule of researchers
regression [29]. It has greater ability of generalization and to unlike typical educational institute, office or residential
avoid over-fit to data. Non-linear systems are usually customers. Research experiments are always running in state-
estimated by Neural networks [30]. Traditional learning of-the-art research labs at the center as power shortage cannot
methods face non-convexity and overfitting. However, ANN be tolerated and uninterrupted power supply is necessary for
is known to suffer the slow convergence and trap into local all time slots. Considering power crises, renewables are
minimum problems due to its gradient descent (GD) based inducted into the system but they are not consistent in their
learning process. Support Vector Machine (SVM) overcomes production so multiple sources are connected to meet supply
this by providing globally optimum solution to the non-linear demand balance. As seen in Figure-4, the vertical side shows
estimation problem. Similarly, finding the best parameters for generation in KWh power output from both facilities and
SVM is another issue which is addressed by novel horizontal side shows hourly data from 8am to 6pm of 5
optimization techniques [31-32]. [33] presents the concept of working days for 02 consecutive weeks from September
Least Square Support Vector Machines (LSSVM) that are 3,2017 to September 14,2017 (100 Hours). Solar plant and
computationally easier to implement than Support Vector Wind farm serve as base load. However, bio-gas plant is for
Machines (SVM). [34] presents a new learning algorithm for peak load. The categorical result of logistic regression will
single layer feedforward neural networks called extreme depict the instance when the generation is less than demand
learning machine (ELM). [35] proposes to bring the ELM and load shedding probability is maximum. Logistic
framework in the SVM by denying a new kernel called as regression will predict time for engagement of new plant to
ELM kernel. [36] proposes a learning algorithm in which the avoid power loss, economic loss, customer unhappiness and
feature space is explicitly defined using a SLFN. [37] gives a operator mis-management. Goal of the research is non-
method to apply the SVM theory to train multilayer intermittent power supply with no interruption at any point.
perceptron. [38] gives the optimization based Extreme That said, logistic regression helps managing supply demand
Learning Machine which has less optimization constraints balance, customer satisfaction, establishing operator reputation
than the SVM. [39] give a unified ELM for regression and and profit maximization along with non-intermittent power
classification. [40] provides a load model for Short Term Load utilization.
Forecasting (STLF) based on non-linear system identification

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 In logistic regression, sigmoid function is taken as hypothesis
and Gradient Decent minimizes the cost function to attain
acceptable decision boundary as shown in Figure-6.

Fig. 4 Combined generation for 100 Hours

IV. SIMULATION & RESULTS

Simulations were completed by a PC with Intel core-i5
CPU@2.1 GHz with 4gb RAM on MATLAB 2017a.Logistic
regression predicts the probability of an outcome that can only
have two values. Classification can be binary class or
multiclass depending on the classifier. The prediction is based
on the use of one or several predictors. A linear regression is
not appropriate for predicting the value of a binary variable.
Whereas a logistic regression produces a logistic curve, which
is limited to values between 0 and 1. Moreover, the predictors Fig. 6 Decision boundary at minimum cost function
do not have to be normally distributed or have equal variance
in each group. Logistic regression is applicable, for example, Decision boundary in Figure-6 is a perfect fit only for the data
if we want to model the probabilities of a response variable as set of case study discussed in the present study. On left side of
a function of some explanatory variables, e.g. "success" of the decision boundary, red circle data points clearly show the
admission as a function of gender or we want to classify load shedding probability while the black plus data points on
individuals into two categories based on explanatory variables, the right side of the decision boundary shows no load
e.g. classify new students into "admitted" or "rejected" group shedding probability. It is worth mentioning that some red
depending on their gender [46]. Our simulation is analogous points are on the right side and some black points are on the
with the latter case, which involves classification on the basis left side. These points are outliers and explains the concept
of generation and load shedding data. In simulations, we used that the proposed algorithm is not a perfect fit rather it is a best
binary classification to predict the output. After initialization fit decision boundary on the given training data set. This
of code, fetched historical data of generation x and generation simulation helps in prediction of load shedding by taking
y plotted as generation facility-1 on x-axis and generation necessary measures in day ahead market e.g. at particular
facility-2 on y-axis is shown in Figure-5. instant when anticipated generation fall less than the demand,
action will be taken to engage new facility to meet demand-
supply balance. In actual, decision is to be taken in real time
based on available generation and achievement of this task is
done via a new algorithm.
Algorithm for Engaging New Facility
Step-0: Run Logistic Regression
Step-1: Iterate through loop-1 for generation-1 starting from 1
hour to 100 hours with 1-hour gap
Step-2: Iterate through loop-2 within existing loop for
generation-2 starting from 0 hour to 100 hours with 1-hour
gap
Step-3: Predict ‘No load shedding’ probability (P), where P is
a sigmoid function with 3*3 input matrix and take input values
of optimal theta from logistic regression and generation data
from both facilities
Fig. 5 Combined generation from both facilities
Step-4: Predict ‘Load shedding’ probability (1-P)

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