‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec.

/7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺍﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﻭﺍﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﻁﻌﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻅﻡ ﺼﻔﻭﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ‬

‫ﻋﺯﺓ ﺤﺎﺯﻡ ﺯﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻱ ﻋﺒﺩﺍﻟﺭﺤﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻴﺩﻱ‬

‫ﻤﺩﺭﺱ‬ ‫ﻤﺩﺭﺱ‬
‫ﻗﺴﻡ ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺘﻴﺔ‪ /‬ﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺴﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻴﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﻠﺨﺹ‬
‫ﺘﻤﺘﻠﻙ ﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺼﻔﻭﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ )ﺍﻟﻁﻭﺍﺒﻴﺭ( ‪ Queuing Theory‬ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﻭﺍﺩﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﻁﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭﺓ ﺠﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻ ﺍﻥ ﻜﺜﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺭﺍﻀﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﺘﻨﺩ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺠﻌل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﻤﻤﺜل ﻏﻴﺭ ﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﻟﻠﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﻗﻌﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺍﻥ ﻤﺸﺎﻜل ﺼﻔﻭﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ﻫﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻜﺜﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻜل ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ ﻋﻤل ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﺩﺙ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺍﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﻭﺍﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﻁﻌﺔ ﻭﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺼﻑ ﺍﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺒﺴﻴﻁ ﻭﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩ ﻭﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫﻫﺎ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻫﺯ )‪. MATLAB (V.7.0‬‬

‫‪Event Scheduling in Simulation of Discrete Event Systems with‬‬

‫‪Applying of Queuing Systems.‬‬
‫‪Abstract‬‬

‫‪Queuing theory and other of discrete and continuous event systems‬‬

‫‪have theory aesthetic but the more assumptions which indepent these‬‬
‫‪theories are not accurate comparing with real situation, also the queue‬‬
‫‪problem is one of most scientific problem that requires simulation to‬‬
‫‪analysis it. Because of that the gool of this research is to design event‬‬
‫‪scheduling for simulation of discrete event systems and according to‬‬
‫‪simulation time with applying to simple and multiple queuing using‬‬
‫)‪MATLAB program (V.7.0‬‬

‫} ‪{ 584‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec./7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬

‫) ‪ (1-1‬ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻥ ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ‪ Simulation‬ﻤﻔﺎﻫﻴﻡ ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻫﺩﻑ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺒﺎﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺭﻴﺎﻀﻲ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻀﻼﺕ ﻭﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺴﺏ ﺍﻻﻟﻜﺘﺭﻭﻨﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﺩﺍﺨل‬
‫ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻨﻭﺍﻋﺎ ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻀﺭﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻭﺼﻑ ﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﻭﻫﻴﺌﺔ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬
‫ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻤﻌﻘﺩ ﻭﻟﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻤﺘﺩﺍﺩ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﻭﻤﻨﻁﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻌﺩ ﺍﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻟﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺼﺭ ﻻﻨﻪ ﻴﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺜﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺘﺸﺒﻪ‬
‫ﻤﺨﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺜﻴﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺙ ﺒﺘﻭﻟﻴﺩ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ )ﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺍﺕ( ﺒﻌﺩ ﺘﺼﻤﻴﻡ ﻭﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ‬
‫ﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﻤﻔﻴﺩﺓ ﺠﺩﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻭﺒﺔ ﺍﻭ ﺍﺴﺘﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل‬
‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻭ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻜﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻗﺭﻴﺒﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﻗﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫)ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻴﺩﻱ‪.(2000،‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻌﺩ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ‪ Simulation Model‬ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺠﺎ ﻭﺼﻔﻴﺎ ‪Descriptive Model‬‬
‫ﺍﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻜﻭﻨﻪ ﺍﻤﺜﻠﻴﺔ ‪ Optimization Model‬ﺍﻱ ﺍﻥ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻴﻭﻓﺭ ﺍﺠﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﻻﺴﺌﻠﺔ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﺎﺫﺍ ﻟﻭ؟ )‪ (what if‬ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻻﺠل ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻭﺍﻗﺏ ﺒﺩﺍﺌل ﺍﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﺘﻴﻜﻴﺔ )ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻥ‪.(1999 ،‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺘﻀﻤﻥ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺴﺤﺏ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ‪Random Sample‬‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﻴﺴﻤﻰ ﺒﻤﺤﻼﻜﺎﺓ ﻤﻭﻨﺕ ﻜﺎﺭﻟﻭ ‪Monte-Carlo Simulation‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﻨﺫ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ‪ Vonvenuman and Ulam‬ﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﻨﻴﺘﺭﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺨﻼل‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺸﻁﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺭﻱ ﻓﻘﺩ ﺍﺼﺒﺤﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻀﺭ ﺍﺴﻠﻭﺒﺎ ﺭﺍﺌﺠﺎ ﻭﻭﺠﺩﺕ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺸﺘﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻻﺕ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻀﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺴﺎﻟﻴﺏ ﺒﺤﻭﺙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻔﻴﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﻻ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺤﺘﻰ ﻟﻭ ﺍﻤﻜﻥ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﺎﻨﻪ‬
‫ﺴﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻜﻠﻔﺎ ﻭﺨﻁﺭﺍ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﺎﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺍﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﻴﺭﻏﺏ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺜﻴﻥ ﻻﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﺤﺎﻜﻲ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺤﺩﺙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﺍﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻤﻴﻡ ﻭﻟﻘﺩ ﺘﻌﺩﺩﺕ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﺸﻜﺎل ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺕ‬
‫ﺒﺸﻜل ﻭﺍﺴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﻀﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﺼﻤﻴﻡ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺼﻔﻭﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ‪Queues‬‬
‫)‪.(Taha, 2007‬‬

‫} ‪{ 585‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec./7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭﻜﻤﺅﺸﺭ ﺍﺨﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ‬
‫) ‪The‬‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻭﺙ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺯﺓ ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺎﺌﺯﺓ ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻰ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺔ ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫‪ (Institute of MS‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺨﺼﺼﺔ ﻻﻓﻀل ﺒﺤﺙ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻲ‪.‬‬
‫) ‪ (1-2‬ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻴﺔ ‪Dynamic Simulation‬‬
‫ﺍﻥ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻨﻭﺍﻉ ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻅﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻨﻭﺍﻉ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺘﻨﻭﻉ ﻭﺘﻔﺭﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﻨﻭﺍﻉ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻴﺔ ) ‪Dynamic‬‬
‫‪ (Simulation‬ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﻋل ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﻭﺍﺩﺙ ﻭﺒﻤﺭﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ ﺠﺯﺀﺍﹰ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻭﺘﻘﺴﻡ ﺍﻟﻰ ‪:‬‬

‫) ‪ (1-2-1‬ﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺜﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﻁﻌﺔ ‪Discrete Event Simulation‬‬

‫ﻭﻫﻲ ﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺍﻻﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺤﺼل ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺤﻭﺍﺩﺙ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻘﺎﻁ ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﻘﻁﻌﺔ ﻭﻟﻴﺱ ﺒﺸﻜل‬
‫ﻓﺘﺭﻭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﻴﺤﺼل ﺍﻴﻀﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻘﺎﻁ ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﻘﻁﻌﺔ‪.‬‬

‫) ‪ (1 -2-2‬ﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺜﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭﺓ ‪Continuous Event Simulation‬‬

‫ﻭﻫﻲ ﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺍﻻﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺤﺼل ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺤﻭﺍﺩﺙ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭﺓ )ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ(‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﻴﺤﺼل ﺍﻴﻀﺎ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭﺓ )ﺒﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ(‪ .‬ﻭﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﻥ ﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺜﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﻁﻌﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﻟﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻅﻤﻰ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺒﺤﻭﺙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‪) .‬ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﺯﺒﻴﺩﻱ‪(2007 ،‬‬
‫) ‪ (1-3‬ﻤﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻥ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻨﻭﺍﻉ ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻅﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻨﻭﺍﻉ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﺩﺓ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺒﺎﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺍﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﺎﺘﻲ‪:‬‬

‫} ‪{ 586‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec./7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫) ‪ (1-3-1‬ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻭﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫ﻴﺠﺏ ﺍﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻓﻌﻼ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺘﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺘﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ )ﺍﻻﺴﺌﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺍﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ( ﻭﺍﻀﺤﺎ ﻭﺩﻗﻴﻘﺎ ﻭﻤﺤﺩﺩﺍ ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤل ﻭﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤﻴﻥ ﻻﻨﺠﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﺫ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻘﺩﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤل ﻭﻤﻨﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺠﻪ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺴﺎﺏ‬
‫ﺒﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺠﻭﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ )‪. (Christor, 1993‬‬

‫) ‪ (1-3-2‬ﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ‬

‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻫﻡ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺍﺫ ﺍﻥ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﺤﻘﺔ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺠﺭﻱ ﺘﺼﻤﻴﻤﻪ ﻭﺒﻨﺎﺀﻩ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻰ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺼﻤﻴﻡ ﻭﺒﻨﺎﺀ‬
‫ﺘﺼﻨﻑ‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺼﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻭﻤﺨﺭﺠﺎﺘﻪ ﺤﻴﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻰ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ‪Exogenous Variables‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻋﻨﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺩﻋﻰ ﺍﻴﻀﺎ ﺒﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺩﺨﺎل ‪Input‬‬
‫‪variables‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻭﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻫﻴﻜل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻁﻠﻕ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻻﺤﻴﺎﻥ ﺒﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺨﺭﺍﺝ ‪Output variables‬‬
‫) ‪ (1-3-3‬ﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬
‫ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺅﻜﺩ ﺍﻟﻭﺠﻭﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻭﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺨﺭﻭﺝ ﺒﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ ﺘﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺘﺼﻤﻴﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻗﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻓﻔﻲ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ﺘﻌﺩ ﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻻﺘﻴﺔ ﺍﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻟﻠﺯﺒﺎﺌﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ‪Ls‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻟﻠﺯﺒﺎﺌﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ‪Lq‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻟﻠﺯﺒﺎﺌﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ‪Ws‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻟﻠﺯﺒﺎﺌﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ‪Wq‬‬

‫} ‪{ 587‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec./7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫) ‪ (1-4‬ﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺒﻌﺽ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺌﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺠﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻨﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺘﻭﻗﻴﺘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻭﻟﻨﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﺒﺎﻨﻨﺎ ﺒﺩﺍﻨﺎ ﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ )ﺼﻔﺭ( ﻤﻊ ﺼﻑ ﺍﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ﻓﺎﺭﻍ ﻭﻟﻨﻔﺘﺭﺽ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻨﻨﺎ ﺨﻁﻁﻨﺎ ﺒﺎﻥ ﺘﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺒﻌﺩ ‪ N‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﺎﺌﻥ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻡ ﺍﻥ ‪ N‬ﻗﺩ ﺤﺩﺩ ﺴﺎﺒﻘﺎﹰ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺒل ﺍﻟﺒﺩﺀ ﻟﻨﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﺍﻥ ﺍﺤﺩﻫﻡ ﺴﺎل ﻜﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺴﻴﻜﻔﻲ ﻟﺨﺩﻤﺔ ‪ N‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﺎﺌﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺎﺱ ﺍﻥ ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ﺨﺎﻟﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺠﻭﺍﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﺏ ﻫﻭ ﺒﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺼﻭل ﻭﺍﺨﺭ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﺒﺎﺨﺘﺼﺎﺭ ﻻ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﺠﻭﺍﺏ ﻤﺤﺩﺩ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻥ ﻴﻌﻁﻰ‪ ،‬ﺍﺫ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﻫﻲ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ‪) .‬ﺍﻟﻨﻌﻴﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺨﺭﻭﻥ‪.(1999 ،‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﺍﻨﻨﺎ ﻨﻨﻔﺫ ﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﺘﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻥ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺨﺩﻤﺔ ‪ N‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﺎﺌﻥ ﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﻭﻗﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻬﺎﺀ ﺍﻭ ﺍﻻﻨﺠﺎﺯ ﻟﻜﻲ ﺘﺼﺒﺢ ‪ TN‬ﺘﺸﻜل ﺍﺤﺠﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺅﺍل ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻕ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻨﻔﺭﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺘﺭﺘﺏ ﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻻﺘﻴﺔ)‪:(Winston, 1994‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ‪Expected Average System Time‬‬
‫‪1 N‬‬
‫‪Ŝ N = ∑ SK‬‬ ‫……………………………‬ ‫)‪(1‬‬
‫=‪N K‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻭﺡ ﺒﻪ‬
‫‪nN‬‬
‫= ‪P̂ND‬‬ ‫……………………………‬ ‫)‪(2‬‬
‫‪N‬‬
‫‪ =nN‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﺎﺌﻥ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ‪D‬‬

‫‪ -3‬ﻤﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﻭ ﻤﻘﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺔ‬

‫) ‪T(o‬‬
‫‪P̂N = 1 −‬‬ ‫‪…………………………….‬‬ ‫)‪(3‬‬
‫‪TN‬‬
‫)‪ =T(i‬ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺓ ﺨﻼل ﻜﻭﻥ ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ﻫﻭ ‪i‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ) ‪(Lq‬‬
‫∞ ‪1‬‬
‫) ‪Q̂ N = ∑ iT(i‬‬ ‫‪………………………….‬‬ ‫)‪(4‬‬
‫‪T i =0‬‬

‫} ‪{ 588‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec./7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻲ‬
‫ﻜﻤﺜﺎل ﻟﺘﻭﻀﻴﺢ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺼﻑ ﺍﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ﻨﺤﺎﻜﻲ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ‪ N=5‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌـﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻥ‬
‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺤﺩﺜﻴﻥ ﻫﻤﺎ ﻭﺼﻭل ﻭﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﺎﺌﻥ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺴﺎﺱ ﺴـﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﻭﻟﻴـﺩ ﻤﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺍﺕ ﻋـﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻼﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻭﺼﻭل ﻭﺍﺨﺭ ﻭﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻤﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﺎﺱ ﺘﻭﺯﻴـﻊ ﺍﺤﺘﻤـﺎﻟﻲ ﺨـﺎﺹ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺤـﺩﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺘﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻨﻲ ﺍﻭ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻭﺼﻭل ﻭﺍﺨﺭ‬
‫‪Y1=0.4, y2=0.3, y3=0.4, y4=1.7,y5=0.6, y6=1.2, y7=1.4, y8=0.3‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺔ )‪z11=2.2, z12=0.5, z13=1.7 : (1‬‬
‫ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺔ )‪, z21=0.3,z22=1.3, z23=1.7 : (2‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻰ ‪ t=0 :‬ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﻭﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ =‪ ،0.0‬ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ =‪ ،0‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﻭﺤﻴـﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل‪ ،‬ﻨﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﻻﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻭﺼﻭل ﻭﺍﺨﺭ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﺠﻬﺯ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒـل‬
‫ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ‪ y1=0.4‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﻤﺠﺩﻭل ﻟﻠﺯﻤﻥ ‪.0.4‬‬

‫ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ‬

‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﻭل‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪Y1=0.4‬‬
‫ﺒﺎﻻﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻨﺒﺘﺩﺃ ﺒﻬﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻜل ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻁﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻭﺒﺔ ﻻﻏﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻤﻴﻥ ﻭﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﺎﺘﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻗﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﻭﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﺯﺒﺎﺌﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺘﺔ ﻭﺍﺫ ﻻﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﻤﻌﻁﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﺘﻭﻓﺭﺓ‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﺸﻐﺎل ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ) ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ(‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫)‪T(o‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫)‪T(1‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫)‪T(2‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫)‪T(3‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫)‪T(4‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬
‫)‪T(5‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬

‫‪nN=0‬‬

‫} ‪{ 589‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec./7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‪ t=0.4 :‬ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﻭل ﻭﺼل‪ ،‬ﻨﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ‪ 0.4‬ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ‪ 1‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ﻁـﻭل ﺍﻟـﺼﻑ‬
‫ﺍﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻟﻠﻭﺼﻭل ﻭﺘﻡ ﺭﻓﻌﻪ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺨﻁﻁ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻭﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﺒﺎﻻﻤﻜـﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺒﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺤﺎﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺴﺎﺱ ﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺒﺘﺠﻬﻴﺯ ﺍﻭﻗـﺎﺕ ﻭﺼـﻭل‬
‫ﺒﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ‪ y2=0.3‬ﻭﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺔ ‪ z21=0.3‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻗـﺕ ﺍﻟﺠـﺎﺭﻱ ﻫـﻭ ‪ 0.4‬ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺼـﻭل‬
‫ـﺎﺩﺭﺓ‬
‫ـﺕ )‪ (0.4+0.3=0.7‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻐـ‬
‫ـﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻭﻗـ‬
‫ـﻰ ﺍﺴـ‬
‫ـﺩﻭل ﻋﻠـ‬
‫ـﻭل ﺠـ‬
‫ـﻭ ‪ 0.4‬ﺍﻟﻭﺼـ‬
‫ـﺎﺭﻱ ﻫـ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠـ‬
‫)‪ (0.4+0.3=0.7‬ﻭﺍﻟﺯﻭﺠﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻗﺩ ﺍﺩﺨﻼ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺨﻁﻁ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﺒﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ‬
‫ﺠﺩﻴﺩ‪.‬‬

‫ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ‬
‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪Y2=0.3‬‬
‫ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﻭل‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪Z21=0.3‬‬

‫ﻭﻨﺅﺭﺥ ﻜل ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﺴﺠل ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﻻﻭل ﺯﺒـﻭﻥ ﻭﻫـﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺨﻁـﻭﺓ ﺴﺘـﺴﺎﻋﺩ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻼ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﺯﺒﻭﻥ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻗﻤﻨﺎ ﺒﺘﺤﺩﻴﺙ )‪ T(o‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﺎﻭﻱ )‪ (0.4-0.0‬ﺍﺫ ﺍﻨﻘـﻀﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻤﺴﺎﻭﻴﺎﹰ ﻟﻠﺼﻔﺭ‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﺸﻐﺎل ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ‬

‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ) ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ(‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫)‪T(o‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫)‪T(1‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫)‪T(2‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫)‪T(3‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫)‪T(4‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬
‫)‪T(5‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬
‫‪nN=0‬‬

‫} ‪{ 590‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec./7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‪ t=0.4+0.3=0.7 :‬ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﻭﺼل‪ ،‬ﻨـﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﻗـﺕ=‪ 0.7‬ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟـﺔ ‪ 1‬ﺤـﺩﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻤﺎﺯﺍل ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺎ ﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﻨﺘﺭﻜﻪ ﻀﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﺤـﻀﺭ ﺒﺘﺠﻬﻴـﺯ ﻭﻗـﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺼﻭل ﺒﻴﻨﻲ ﺠﺩﻴﺩ ‪ Y3=0.4‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻫﻭ ‪ 0.7‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﺠﺩﻭل ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﺴـﺎﺱ‬
‫‪ 0.7+0.4=1.1‬ﻭﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺯﻭﺝ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ‪ 1.1‬ﻗﺩ ﺍﻀﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ‪.‬‬

‫ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ‬

‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﻭل‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬
‫ﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫‪1.1‬‬ ‫‪Y3=0.4‬‬

‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺍﻥ ﻨﺠﻤﻊ ﻤﻌﻁﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻜﺜﺭ ﻟﺨﺼﺎﺌﺹ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﺴﺠل ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﻟﻠﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬
‫‪ 0.7‬ﻭﻨﺤﺩﺙ )‪ T(1‬ﺍﺫ ﺍﻥ ‪ T(1)=0.3‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻤﻥ ‪ 0.7-0.3‬ﺍﺫ ﺍﻥ )‪ (0.3‬ﺍﻨﻘﻀﺕ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ )‪(1‬‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﺸﻐﺎل ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ) ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ(‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫)‪T(o‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫)‪T(1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫)‪T(2‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫)‪T(3‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫)‪T(4‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬
‫)‪T(5‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬

‫‪nN=0‬‬

‫} ‪{ 591‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec./7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻌﺔ‬
‫‪ T=0.7‬ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﻭل‪ ،‬ﺒﺎﻟﻘﺎﺀ ﻨﻅﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﻭﺍﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻭﻗﻌﺕ‪ ،‬ﻨﺭﻯ ﺍﻻﻥ ﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻡ ﻫﻭ ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻨﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ=‪ 0.7‬ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ‪ 2‬ﺍﺫ ﺍﻥ ﻁﻭل‬
‫ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ﺍﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ )‪ .(1‬ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﻠﺕ )ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺕ( ﻤﻥ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ \ﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻻﺯﺍل ﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺴﺎﺱ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺠﻬﺯ ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ﻟﻜﻲ‬
‫ﻨﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ‪ Z11=2.2‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻫﻭ ‪ ،0.7‬ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ‪ 0.7+2.2=2.9‬ﻭﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ )‪ (2.9‬ﺍﻀﻴﻔﺕ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺴﺠﻠﺕ ﺘﻜﺭﺍﺭﺍ‪:‬‬

‫ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ‬

‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﻭل‬ ‫‪1.1‬‬
‫ﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫‪2.9‬‬ ‫‪Z11=2.2‬‬

‫ﻨﺤﻥ ﺍﻻﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻭﻗﻊ ﻟﺘﺴﺠﻴل ﻭﻗﺕ ﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﻭل‪ ،‬ﺍﺫ ﺍﻥ ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻓﻲ‬
‫)‪ (0.7‬ﻭﻜﻨﺎ ﻗﺩ ﺨﺯﻨﺎ ﻭﻗﺕ ﻭﺼﻭﻟﻪ )‪ (0.4‬ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻋﻁﻲ ﺒﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﻭل ﻭﻴﻁﺭﺡ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﻭل ‪ 0.7-0.4‬ﻭﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ‪ 0.3‬ﺨﺯﻨﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻥ‬
‫ﻨﺤﺩﺙ ‪ nN‬ﺍﺫ ﺍﻥ ﺨﻁ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻭﺡ ﺒﻪ ‪ D‬ﺍﻋﻁﻲ ﻟﻴﻜﻭﻥ )‪ (0.7‬ﻭﻨﺭﻯ ﺒﺎﻥ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﻭل ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺘﺤﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻥ ‪ nN=0‬ﻴﺒﻘﻰ ﺒﺩﻭﻥ ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﺸﻐﺎل ﻁﻭل ﺼ ﻑ‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ) ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ(‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫)‪T(o‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫)‪T(1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫)‪T(2‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫)‪T(3‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫)‪T(4‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫)‪T(5‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬
‫‪nN=0‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺴﺔ‬

‫} ‪{ 592‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec./7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫‪ T=1.1‬ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ ﻭﺼل‪ ،‬ﻨﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ= ‪ 1.1‬ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ =‪ 2‬ﺘﺒﻘﻰ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻥ ﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻴﺒﻘﻰ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺎ ﺍﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﺘﺭﻙ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻴﺠﻬﺯ ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ﻟﻜﺏ ﻨﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻗﺕ ﻭﺼﻭل ﺒﻴﻨﻲ )ﺍﻭ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻭﺼﻭل ﻭﺍﺨﺭ(‬
‫ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ‪ Y4=0.9‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻫﻭ ‪ ،1.1‬ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺠﺩﻭل ﻟﻠﻭﻗﺕ ‪1.1+0.9=2.0‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺯﻭﺝ )ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ‪ (2.0‬ﺍﻀﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺴﺠﻠﺕ ﻭﻻﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ‬

‫‪1.1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫ﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻊ‬ ‫‪2.8‬‬
‫ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫‪2.9‬‬ ‫‪Y4=1.7‬‬

‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺠﻤﻊ ﻤﻌﻁﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻜﺜﺭ ﻟﺨﺼﺎﺌﺹ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﺴﺠل ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﻟﻠﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ ﻭﻨﺤﺩﺙ )‪T(2‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ‪ T(2)=0.4‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻤﻥ ‪ 1.1-0.7‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ‪ 0.4‬ﺍﻨﻘﻀﻰ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ‬
‫) ‪(1‬‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﺸﻐﺎل ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ) ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ(‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫)‪T(o‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫)‪T(1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1.1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫)‪T(2‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫)‪T(3‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫)‪T(4‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫)‪T(5‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬

‫‪nN=0‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺴﺔ‬

‫} ‪{ 593‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec./7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫‪ T=2.8‬ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻊ ﻭﺼل‪ ،‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻓﻲ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻨﻀﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ‪ 2.8‬ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ =‪ 2‬ﺘﺒﻘﻰ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻨﺘﻘل ﻤﻥ ﻤﺨﻁﻁ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‪،‬‬
‫ﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻻﺯﺍل ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺎ‪ ،‬ﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﻴﺘﺭﻙ ﻀﻤﻥ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﺤﻀﺭ ﺒﺘﺠﻬﻴﺯ‬
‫ﻭﻗﺕ ﻭﺼﻭل ﺒﻴﻨﻲ ﺠﺩﻴﺩ ‪ Y5=0.6‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻫﻭ ‪ 2.8‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﺠﺩﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺎﺱ ‪ 2.8+0.6=3.4‬ﻭﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺯﻭﺝ )ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ‪ (3.4‬ﻗﺩ ﺍﻀﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻭﻜﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻴﺎﺘﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ‬

‫‪2.8‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫‪2.8‬‬
‫ﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺱ‬ ‫‪2.9‬‬ ‫‪Y5=0.6‬‬

‫ﺒﺎﻻﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻨﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﺘﺴﺠﻴل ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﻟﻠﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﺴﺘﺤﺩﺙ )‪ T(3‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ‬
‫‪ T(3)=1.3‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻤﻥ ‪ 2.8-1.5‬ﺍﻨﻘﻀﺕ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ )‪(2‬‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﺸﻐﺎل ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ) ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ(‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫)‪T(o‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫)‪T(1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1.1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫)‪T(2‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2.8‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫)‪T(3‬‬ ‫‪1.3‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫)‪T(4‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫)‪T(5‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬

‫‪nN=0‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻌﺔ‬

‫} ‪{ 594‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec./7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫‪ T=2.9‬ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺒﺎﻟﻘﺎﺀ ﻨﻅﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﻭﺍﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻭﻗﻌﺕ‪ ،‬ﻨﺭﻯ ﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻡ ﻫﻭ ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻨﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ=‪ 2.9‬ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ‪ 3‬ﺍﺫ ﺍﻥ ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ﺍﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ )‪ .(1‬ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﻠﺕ )ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺕ( ﻤﻥ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬
‫\ﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻻﺯﺍل ﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺴﺎﺱ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺠﻬﺯ ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ﻟﻜﻲ ﻨﺤﺼل‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ‪ Z12=2.9‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻫﻭ ‪ ،2.9‬ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ‪ 2.9+0.5=3.4‬ﻭﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺯﻭﺝ )ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ‪ (3.4‬ﺍﻀﻴﻔﺕ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺴﺠﻠﺕ ﺘﻜﺭﺍﺭﺍ‪:‬‬

‫ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ‬

‫‪2.9‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫ﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺱ‬ ‫‪3.4‬‬
‫ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫‪3.4‬‬ ‫‪Z12=0.5‬‬

‫ﺍﻻﻥ ﻨﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ ﺍﻥ ﻨﺴﺠل ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﺫ ﺍﻥ ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻓﻲ ) ‪(2.9‬‬
‫ﻭﻜﻨﺎ ﻗﺩ ﺨﺯﻨﺎ ﻭﻗﺕ ﻭﺼﻭﻟﻪ )‪ (0.3‬ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻋﻁﻲ ﺏ ‪ 2.9-0.3‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ‪ 2.6‬ﺨﺯﻨﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺭﺒﻤﺎ ﻨﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻥ ﻨﺤﺩﺙ ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﺎﺌﻥ ﺍﻟﺫﻴﻥ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻟﺩﻴﻬﻡ ﻴﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻭﺡ ﺒﻪ ‪ D‬ﻭﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﻨﺠﺩﺩ ‪ ، nN=1‬ﺍﺨﻴﺭﺍ ﻓﺎﻥ ‪ 0.1‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻤﻥ ‪ 2.9-2.8=0.1‬ﺍﺴﻘﻁﺕ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻜﺎﻥ ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ )‪ (2‬ﻭﻨﺠﺩﺩ )‪ T(1‬ﺍﻟﻰ ‪ 0.7+0.1=0.8‬ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﺸﻐﺎل ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ‬
‫)ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ(‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﺸﻐﺎل ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ) ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ(‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫)‪T(o‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2.6‬‬
‫)‪T(1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1.1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫)‪T(2‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2.8‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫)‪T(3‬‬ ‫‪1.3‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫)‪T(4‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫)‪T(5‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬
‫‪nN=1‬‬

‫} ‪{ 595‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec./7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻤﻨﺔ‬
‫‪ T=3.4‬ﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺱ‪ ،‬ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل‪ ،‬ﻨﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ=‪3.4‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ =‪ 3‬ﺘﺒﻘﻰ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﻴﻨﺘﻘل )ﻴﺘﻐﻴﺭ( ﻤﻥ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ )ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ( ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻴﺒﻘﻰ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺎ ﺍﺜﻨﺎﺀ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻭﻨﺘﺭﻙ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻴﺠﻬﺯ ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ﻟﻜﻲ ﻨﺤﺼل‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻗﺕ ﻭﺼﻭل ﺒﻴﻨﻲ ﺠﺩﻴﺩ ‪ Y6=1.2‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻫﻭ ‪ ،3.4‬ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺠﺩﻭل‬
‫ﻟﻠﻭﻗﺕ ‪ 3.4+1.2=4.6‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺯﻭﺝ )ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ‪ (4.6‬ﺍﻀﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺴﺠﻠﺕ ﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ ﻭﺍﻻﻥ‪:‬‬

‫ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ‬

‫‪3.4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫‪2.8‬‬
‫ﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ‬ ‫‪2.9‬‬ ‫‪Y6=1.2‬‬

‫ﺒﺎﻻﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻨﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﺘﺴﺠﻴل ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﻟﻠﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﺴﺘﺤﺩﺙ )‪ T(4‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ‬
‫‪ T(4)=1.0‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻤﻥ ‪ 3.4-2.4‬ﺍﻨﻘﻀﺕ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ )‪(3‬‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﺸﻐﺎل ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ) ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ(‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫)‪T(o‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2.6‬‬
‫)‪T(1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1.1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫)‪T(2‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2.8‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫)‪T(3‬‬ ‫‪1.3‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪3.4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫)‪T(4‬‬ ‫‪1.0‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫)‪T(5‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬
‫‪nN=1‬‬

‫} ‪{ 596‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec./7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺴﻌﺔ‬
‫‪ T=3.4‬ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‪ ،‬ﺒﺎﻟﻘﺎﺀ ﻨﻅﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﻭﺍﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﻭﻗﻌﺕ‪ ،‬ﻨﺭﻯ ﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻡ ﻫﻭ ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻨﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ=‪ 3.4‬ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟـﺔ =‪ 4‬ﺍﺫ ﺍﻥ ﻁـﻭل ﺼـﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ﺍﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ )‪ .(1‬ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﻠﺕ )ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺕ( ﻤﻥ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴـﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻻﺯﺍل ﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺴﺎﺱ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺠﻬﺯ ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ﻟﻜﻲ ﻨﺤـﺼل‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ‪ Z22=1.3‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻫﻭ ‪ ،3.4‬ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻐـﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺠﺩﻭﻟـﺔ ﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ‪ 3.4+1.3=4.7‬ﻭﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺯﻭﺝ )ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ‪ (4.7‬ﺍﻀﻴﻔﺕ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟـﺔ ﺍﻟﺤـﺩﺙ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤـﺔ‬
‫ﺴﺠﻠﺕ ﺘﻜﺭﺍﺭﺍ‪:‬‬

‫ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ‬

‫‪3.4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫ﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ‬ ‫‪3.4‬‬
‫ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻊ‬ ‫‪3.4‬‬ ‫‪Z22=1.3‬‬

‫ﺍﻻﻥ ﻨﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ ﺍﻥ ﻨﺴﺠل ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻁﻰ ﺒـ ‪ 3.4-0.4‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ‪ 3.0‬ﺨﺯﻨﺕ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ‪ 0.3>D=0.7‬ﻭﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﻨﺠﺩ ‪ ، nN=2‬ﺍﺨﻴﺭﺍ ﻓﺎﻥ ‪ 0.0‬ﺍﺴﻘﻁﺕ‬
‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ )‪ (3‬ﻭﻨﺠﺩﺩ )‪ T(2‬ﺍﻟﻰ ‪0.4+0.0=0.4‬‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﺸﻐﺎل ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ) ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ(‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫)‪T(o‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2.6‬‬
‫)‪T(1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1.1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3.0‬‬
‫)‪T(2‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2.8‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫)‪T(3‬‬ ‫‪1.3‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪3.4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫)‪T(4‬‬ ‫‪1.0‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫)‪T(5‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬
‫‪nN=2‬‬

‫} ‪{ 597‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec./7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺸﺭﺓ‬
‫‪ T=4.6‬ﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ‪ ،‬ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل‪ ،‬ﻨﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ=‪4.6‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ =‪ 4‬ﺘﺒﻘﻰ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﻴﻨﺘﻘل )ﻴﺘﻐﻴﺭ( ﻤﻥ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ )ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ( ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻴﺒﻘﻰ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺎ ﺍﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻭﻨﺘﺭﻙ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻴﺠﻬﺯ ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ﻟﻜﻲ ﻨﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻗﺕ ﻭﺼﻭل ﺒﻴﻨﻲ ﺠﺩﻴﺩ ‪ Y7=1.4‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻫﻭ ‪،4.6‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺠﺩﻭل ﻟﻠﻭﻗﺕ ‪ 4.6+1.4=6.0‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺯﻭﺝ )ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ‪ (6.0‬ﺍﻀﻴﻔﺕ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺴﺠﻠﺕ ﻭﺍﻻﻥ ﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ‪:‬‬

‫ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ‬

‫‪4.6‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻊ‬ ‫‪4.7‬‬
‫ﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﻊ‬ ‫‪6.0‬‬ ‫‪Y7=1.4‬‬

‫ﺒﺎﻻﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻨﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﺘﺴﺠﻴل ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﻟﻠﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﺴﺘﺤﺩﺙ )‪ T(5‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ‪1.2‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻤﻥ ‪ 4.6-3.4‬ﺍﻨﻘﻀﺕ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ )‪(4‬‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﺸﻐﺎل ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ) ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ(‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫)‪T(o‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2.6‬‬
‫)‪T(1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1.1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3.0‬‬
‫)‪T(2‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2.8‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫)‪T(3‬‬ ‫‪1.3‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪3.4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫)‪T(4‬‬ ‫‪1.0‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪4.6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫)‪T(5‬‬ ‫‪1.2‬‬
‫‪nN=2‬‬

‫} ‪{ 598‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec./7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﺸﺭ‬
‫‪ T=4.7‬ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻊ‪ ،‬ﺒﺎﻟﻘﺎﺀ ﻨﻅﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﻭﺍﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﻭﻗﻌﺕ‪ ،‬ﻨﺭﻯ ﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻡ ﻫﻭ ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻨﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ=‪ 4.7‬ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟـﺔ =‪ 5‬ﺍﺫ ﺍﻥ ﻁـﻭل ﺼـﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ﺍﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ )‪ .(1‬ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﻠﺕ )ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺕ( ﻤﻥ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴـﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻻﺯﺍل ﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺴﺎﺱ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺠﻬﺯ ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ﻟﻜﻲ ﻨﺤـﺼل‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ‪ 4.7+1.7=6.4‬ﻭﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺯﻭﺝ )ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ‪ (6.4‬ﺍﻀﻴﻔﺕ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻗﺎﺌﻤـﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺴﺠﻠﺕ ﺘﻜﺭﺍﺭﺍ‪:‬‬

‫ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ‬

‫‪4.7‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫ﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻊ‬ ‫‪6.0‬‬
‫ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺱ‬ ‫‪6.4‬‬ ‫‪Z13=1.7‬‬

‫ﺍﻻﻥ ﻨﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ ﺍﻥ ﻨﺴﺠل ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻁﻰ ﺒـ ‪ 4.7-1.7‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ‪ 3.0‬ﺘﺨﺯﻥ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ‪ 0.3>D=0.7‬ﻭﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﻨﺠﺩ ‪ ، nN=2‬ﻨﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻥ ﻨﺤﺩﺙ ﺤﺴﺎﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺯﺒﺎﺌﻥ ﺍﻟﺫﻴﻥ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻟﺩﻴﻬﻡ ﻴﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻭﺡ ﺒﻪ ‪ D‬ﻭﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﻨﺠﺩ ‪ nN=3‬ﺍﺨﻴﺭﺍ ﻓﺎﻥ ‪0.1‬‬
‫ﺍﺴﻘﻁﺕ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ )‪ (4‬ﻭﻨﺠﺩﺩ )‪ T(3‬ﺍﻟﻰ ‪1.3+0.1=1.4‬‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﺸﻐﺎل ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ) ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ(‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫)‪T(o‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2.6‬‬
‫)‪T(1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1.1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3.0‬‬
‫)‪T(2‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2.8‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3.0‬‬
‫)‪T(3‬‬ ‫‪1.3‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪3.4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫)‪T(4‬‬ ‫‪1.0‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪4.6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫)‪T(5‬‬ ‫‪1.2‬‬
‫‪nN=3‬‬

‫} ‪{ 599‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec./7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﺸﺭ‬
‫‪ T=6.0‬ﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻊ‪ ،‬ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل‪ ،‬ﻨﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ=‪6.0‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ =‪ 5‬ﺍﺫ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﻴﻨﺘﻘل )ﻴﺘﻐﻴﺭ( ﻤﻥ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ )ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ( ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻴﺒﻘﻰ‬
‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺎ ﺍﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻭﻨﺘﺭﻙ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻴﺠﻬﺯ ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ﻟﻜﻲ‬
‫ﻨﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻗﺕ ﻭﺼﻭل ﺒﻴﻨﻲ ﺠﺩﻴﺩ ‪ Y8=0.3‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻫﻭ ‪ ،6.0‬ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺠﺩﻭل ﻟﻠﻭﻗﺕ ‪ 6.0+0.3=6.3‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺯﻭﺝ )ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ‪ (6.3‬ﺍﻀﻴﻔﺕ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺴﺠﻠﺕ ﻭﺍﻻﻥ ﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ‪:‬‬

‫ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ‬

‫‪6.0‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫ﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻤﻥ‬ ‫‪4.7‬‬
‫ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺱ‬ ‫‪6.0‬‬ ‫‪Y8=0.3‬‬

‫ﺒﺎﻻﻤﻜﺎﻥ ﺘﺴﺠﻴل ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﻟﻠﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻁﺔ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻥ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻴﻬﺘﻡ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻟﺯﺒﺎﺌﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺕ ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻰ ﻓﻘﻁ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻱ ﺤﺎل ﻨﺴﺘﺤﺩﺙ )‪ T(2‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ‪: 0.4+1.3=1.7‬‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﺸﻐﺎل ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ) ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ(‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫)‪T(o‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2.6‬‬
‫)‪T(1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1.1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3.0‬‬
‫)‪T(2‬‬ ‫‪1.7‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2.8‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3.0‬‬
‫)‪T(3‬‬ ‫‪1.4‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪3.4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫)‪T(4‬‬ ‫‪1.0‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪4.6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫)‪T(5‬‬ ‫‪1.2‬‬

‫‪nN=3‬‬

‫} ‪{ 600‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec./7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ﻋﺸﺭ‬
‫‪ T=6.3‬ﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻤﻥ‪ ،‬ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل‪ ،‬ﻨﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ=‪6.3‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ =‪ 5‬ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﻴﻨﺘﻘل )ﻴﺘﻐﻴﺭ( ﻤﻥ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ )ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ( ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻴﺒﻘﻰ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺍﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻭﻨﺘﺭﻙ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻴﺠﻬﺯ ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ﻟﻜﻲ‬
‫ﻨﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻗﺕ ﻭﺼﻭل ﺒﻴﻨﻲ ﺠﺩﻴﺩ ‪ Y9=1.7‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻫﻭ ‪ ،6.3‬ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺠﺩﻭل ﻟﻠﻭﻗﺕ ‪ 6.3+1.7=8.0‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺯﻭﺝ )ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ‪ (8.0‬ﺍﻀﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺴﺠﻠﺕ ﻭﺍﻻﻥ ﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ‪:‬‬

‫ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ‬

‫‪6.3‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺱ‬ ‫‪6.4‬‬
‫ﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺴﻊ‬ ‫‪6.0‬‬ ‫‪Y9=1.7‬‬

‫ﺒﺎﻻﻤﻜﺎﻥ ﺘﺴﺠﻴل ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﻟﻠﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻁﺔ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻥ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻴﻬﺘﻡ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻟﺯﺒﺎﺌﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺕ ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻰ ﻓﻘﻁ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻱ ﺤﺎل ﻨﺴﺘﺤﺩﺙ )‪ T(1‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ‪: 0.3+0.3=0.6‬‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﺸﻐﺎل ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ) ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ(‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫)‪T(o‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2.6‬‬
‫)‪T(1‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1.1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3.0‬‬
‫)‪T(2‬‬ ‫‪1.7‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2.8‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3.0‬‬
‫)‪T(3‬‬ ‫‪1.4‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪3.4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫)‪T(4‬‬ ‫‪1.0‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪4.6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫)‪T(5‬‬ ‫‪1.2‬‬

‫‪nN=3‬‬

‫} ‪{ 601‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec./7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻌﺔ ﻋﺸﺭ‬
‫‪ T=6.4‬ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺱ‪ ،‬ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻫﻭ ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻨﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ=‪ 6.4‬ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟـﺔ‬
‫=‪ 6‬ﺍﺫ ﺍﻥ ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ﺍﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ )‪ .(1‬ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﻠﺕ )ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺕ( ﻤـﻥ ﻗﺎﺌﻤـﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻻﺯﺍل ﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍ‪ ،‬ﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﻗﻤﻨﺎ ﺒﺎﻻﺴـﺘﻌﺎﻨﺔ ﺒﻤﻭﻟـﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴـﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻐـﺎﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ﻟﻜﻲ ﻨﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻴﺩ ‪ Z23=1.3‬ﺍﺫ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻫﻭ ‪6.4‬‬
‫ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ‪ 6.4+1.7=8.1‬ﺍﻀﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺍﻥ ﻨﺭﻯ ﺒﺎﻥ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤـﺩﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻤﺭﺓ ﺍﺨﺭﻯ ﻭﻜﻤﺎ ﻤﺒﻴﻥ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺨﻁﻁ ﺍﻻﺘﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﻤﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ‬

‫‪6.4‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫ﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺴﻊ‬ ‫‪8.0‬‬
‫ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ‬ ‫‪8.1‬‬ ‫‪Z23=1.7‬‬

‫ﺍﻻﻥ ﻨﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ ﺍﻥ ﻨﺴﺠل ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻁﻰ ﺒـ ‪ 6.4- 0.6=5.8‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬
‫ﺘﺨﺯﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ‪ 5.8>D=0.7‬ﻭﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﻨﺠﺩ ‪ ، nN=2‬ﻨﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻥ ﻨﺤﺩﺙ‬
‫ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﺎﺌﻥ ﺍﻟﺫﻴﻥ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻟﺩﻴﻬﻡ ﻴﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻭﺡ ﺒﻪ ‪ D‬ﻭﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﻨﺠﺩ ‪ nN=4‬ﺍﺨﻴﺭﺍ ﻓﺎﻥ‬
‫‪ 0.1‬ﺍﺴﻘﻁﺕ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ )‪ (5‬ﻭﻨﺠﺩﺩ )‪ T(4‬ﺍﻟﻰ ‪1.0+0.1=1.1‬‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﺸﻐﺎل ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ) ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ(‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫)‪T(o‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2.6‬‬
‫)‪T(1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1.1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3.0‬‬
‫)‪T(2‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2.8‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3.0‬‬
‫)‪T(3‬‬ ‫‪1.4‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪3.4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪5.8‬‬
‫)‪T(4‬‬ ‫‪1.1‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪4.6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫)‪T(5‬‬ ‫‪1.2‬‬
‫‪nN=4‬‬

‫} ‪{ 602‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec./7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺴﺔ ﻋﺸﺭ‬
‫‪ T=8.1‬ﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ‪ ،‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻻﺨﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻨﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﻨﺎ ‪ N=6‬ﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﻭﻥ )ﺍﻱ ﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺕ ﺯﺒﺎﺌﻥ ﻜﺸﺭﻁ ﻨﻬﺎﺌﻲ(‪ ،‬ﻨﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ=‪ 8.1‬ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬
‫=‪ 6‬ﺍﺫ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺕ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﺙ ﻭﻟﻡ ﻨﻘﻡ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺙ ﻤﺭﺓ ﺍﺨﺭﻯ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﻫﻲ‬
‫ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻨﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﺘﺴﺠﻴل ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ﻭﺍﻻﺨﻴﺭ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ﻭﻗﺕ ﻭﺼﻭﻟﻪ ‪ 1.2‬ﻭﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﻓﺎﻥ ‪8.1‬‬
‫‪ – 1.2=6.9‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺨﺯﻨﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ‪ 6.9> D=0.7‬ﻨﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻥ ﻨﺤﺩﺙ‬
‫ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﺎﺌﻥ ﺍﻟﺫﻴﻥ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻟﺩﻴﻬﻡ ﻴﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻭﺡ ﺒﻪ ‪ D‬ﻭﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﻨﺠﺩﺩ ‪ nN=5‬ﺍﺨﻴﺭﺍ ﻓﺎﻥ‬
‫)‪ (1.7‬ﺍﺴﻘﻁﺕ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ )‪ (6‬ﻭﻨﺠﺩﺩ )‪ T(5‬ﺍﻟﻰ ‪1.2+1.7=2.9‬‬

‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﺸﻐﺎل ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ )ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ(‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2.6‬‬ ‫)‪T(o‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1.1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3.0‬‬ ‫)‪T(1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2.8‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3.0‬‬ ‫)‪T(2‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪3.4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪5.8‬‬ ‫)‪T(3‬‬ ‫‪1.4‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪4.6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪6.9‬‬ ‫)‪T(4‬‬ ‫‪1.1‬‬
‫)‪T(5‬‬ ‫‪2.9‬‬

‫‪nN=5‬‬

‫} ‪{ 603‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec./7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭﻴﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل )‪ (1‬ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل )‪ :(1‬ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ‬

‫ﻭﺤﺴﺒﺕ ﻤﻘﺎﻴﻴﺱ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺀ ﻻﺭﺒﻌﺔ ﺍﻤﻭﺭ ﻫﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬
‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻁﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻻﺨﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ )‪ (1‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻫﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ‪Expected Average System Time‬‬
‫‪1 N‬‬
‫‪Ŝ N = ∑ SK‬‬
‫=‪N K‬‬

‫‪ -2‬ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻭﺡ ﺒﻪ )‪ (D=0.7‬ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺨﻴﺭﺓ ﻟـ )‪ nN‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺠﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ )‪ (2‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻫﻲ‬
‫‪nN‬‬
‫= ‪P̂ND‬‬
‫‪N‬‬

‫} ‪{ 604‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec./7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻤﻊ )‪ (N=6‬ﻨﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻰ‬

‫‪ -3‬ﻤﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﻭ ﻤﻘﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺔ‪ :‬ﻤﻌﻁﻴﺎﺕ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﺸﻐﺎل ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺨﻴﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ )‪ (3‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻫﻲ‬
‫) ‪T(o‬‬
‫‪P̂N = 1 −‬‬
‫‪TN‬‬

‫‪ -4‬ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ) ‪ (Lq‬ﺍﻭ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺯﺒﺎﺌﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻁﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ )ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺨﻴﺭﺓ( ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ )‪ (4‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻫﻲ‬
‫∞ ‪1‬‬
‫= ‪Q̂ N‬‬ ‫) ‪∑ iT(i‬‬
‫‪T i =0‬‬

‫‪=3.785‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺘﻡ ﺘﺼﻤﻴﻡ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺤﺎﺴﻭﺒﻲ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ‪ Excel‬ﻟﺘﻭﻟﻴﺩ ﺍﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺨﺘﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﻅﻡ ‪ Uniform Distribution‬ﻜﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ‪ 2.5‬ﻭﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬
‫‪ .3.0‬ﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ﺒﺘﻭﻟﻴﺩ ‪ 20‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ‪ ،‬ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﺩﺨﺎل ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻨﻲ ﻀﻤﻥ ﺤﻘل‬
‫‪ Data‬ﻭﺒﻨﺎﺀﺍﹰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻡ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺤﻘل ﻴﺘﻡ ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﻁﻭل ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻁﻭل‬
‫ﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل )‪ .(2‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻥ ﺃﻱ ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻀﻤﻥ ﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ‪Excel‬‬
‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ ﺘﻠﻘﺎﺌﻲ ﻟﻠﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‪ ،‬ﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻌﻤﻴﻡ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ﻟﺘﻭﻟﻴﺩ ﺍﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻷﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‪.‬‬

‫} ‪{ 605‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec./7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬

‫‪ -3‬ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻫﺯ )‪ MATLAB (V.7.0‬ﻟﺘﺼﻤﻴﻡ ﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ﺤﺎﺴﻭﺒﻲ ﻟﺘﻭﻟﻴﺩ ﺍﻻﻋﺩﺍﺩ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺼﻑ ﺍﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ﻭﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ﺍﻻﻭل )ﻤﻠﺤﻕ ‪ (1‬ﺒﺘﻭﻟﻴﺩ ﺍﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﺼﻑ ﺍﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ‪ M/M/1‬ﻭﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﻭﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻴﺘﺒﻊ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ‬
‫ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻭﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻡ ﺘﻭﻟﻴﺩ ‪ 500‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﻜل )‪ (2‬ﻴﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻟﺩﺓ ﻜﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻴﻭﻀﺢ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل )‪ (2‬ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ‪.‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫‪0‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪150‬‬ ‫‪200‬‬ ‫‪250‬‬ ‫‪300‬‬ ‫‪350‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل )‪ : ( 2‬ﺍﻻﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻟﺩﺓ ﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺼﻑ ﺍﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ‪M/M/1‬‬

‫} ‪{ 606‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec./7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل )‪ (2‬ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ‬
‫‪5.00‬‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻭﺡ ﺒﻪ‬
‫‪13‬‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫‪0.0212‬‬
‫‪0.0688‬‬
‫‪0.1507‬‬
‫‪0.2831‬‬
‫‪0.4757‬‬
‫‪0.6055‬‬
‫‪0.6254‬‬
‫‪0.6300‬‬
‫‪0.6324‬‬
‫‪0.6374‬‬
‫‪0.6741‬‬
‫‪1.0000‬‬

‫‪ -4‬ﺼﻤﻤﺕ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺍﻤﺞ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺴﻭﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﻨﻅﺎﻡ ‪ MATLAB‬ﺍﻴﻀﺎ ﻟﺘﻭﻟﻴﺩ ﺍﻻﻋﺩﺍﺩ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﺼﻑ ﺍﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩ )ﻤﻠﺤﻕ ‪ (3‬ﺒﺘﻭﻟﻴﺩ ﺍﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺼﻑ ﺍﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ‬
‫‪M/G/C‬‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﻡ ﺘﺼﻤﻴﻡ ﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ﻟﺘﻭﻟﻴﺩ ﺍﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﺼﻑ ﺍﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ ‪ M/G/1‬ﻭﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﻫﻭ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻭﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﺯﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﻅﻡ‬
‫‪) uniform‬ﻤﻠﺤﻕ ‪ ، (2‬ﻭﺘﻭﻟﻴﺩ )‪ (1500‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﻜل ) ‪ ( (3‬ﻴﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻋﺩﺍﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻟﺩﺓ ﻭﻴﻭﻀﺢ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل )‪ (3‬ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ‪.‬‬

‫} ‪{ 607‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec./7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬

‫‪200‬‬

‫‪180‬‬

‫‪160‬‬

‫‪140‬‬

‫‪120‬‬

‫‪100‬‬

‫‪80‬‬

‫‪60‬‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫‪20‬‬

‫‪0‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪70‬‬ ‫‪80‬‬ ‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬

‫اﻟﺸﻜﻞ )‪ : (4‬ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻟﺼﻒ اﻧﺘﻈﺎر ‪M/G/1‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل )‪ (3‬ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ‬

‫‪5‬‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﺯﺒﻭﻥ ﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻤﻭﺡ ﺒﻪ‬
‫‪15‬‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫‪0.0736‬‬
‫‪0.0867‬‬
‫‪0.1771‬‬
‫‪0.2562‬‬
‫‪0.3150‬‬
‫‪0.4575‬‬
‫‪0.5755‬‬
‫‪0.6050‬‬
‫‪0.6397‬‬
‫‪0.6468‬‬
‫‪0.6815‬‬
‫‪0.8607‬‬
‫‪0.9186‬‬
‫‪1.0000‬‬

‫} ‪{ 608‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪-‬ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ‪2009/Dec./7-6‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺍﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺤﻭﺍﺩﺙ ﻤﺘﻘﻁﻌﺔ ﺍﺨﺭﻯ ﺒﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﻨﻅـﻡ‬
‫ﺼﻔﻭﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ ﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﺍﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﻭﺍﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭﺓ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺍﻋﻁﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻲ )ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ( ﻜﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﻴﺩﻭﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻫﺞ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻁﻠﺒﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻴﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻋﺩﻱ ﻋﺒﺩﺍﻟﺭﺤﻤﻥ )‪" .(2000‬ﺨﻭﺍﺭﺯﻤﻴﺔ ﺒﺯﻥ ﻭﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺼﻔﻭﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅـﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﻠﻘـﺔ ﻤـﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺼﻴﺎﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻭﺼل"‪ .‬ﺭﺴﺎﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻤﺎﺠﺴﺘﻴﺭ‪ ،‬ﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺴﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺼل‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺤﺎﻤﺩ ﺴﻌﺩ ﻨﻭﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺯﺒﻴﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻲ ﺨﻠﻴل‪" .(2007) .‬ﻤﺩﺨل ﺍﻟـﻰ ﺒﺤـﻭﺙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴـﺎﺕ"‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺩﻻﻭﻱ‪،‬ﻋﻤﺎﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻌﻴﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻤﺤﻤﺩ ﻋﺒﺩﺍﻟﻌﺎل ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺤﻤﺩﺍﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺭﻓﺎﻩ ﻓﺎﻀل ﻭﺍﻟﺤﻤﺩﺍﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﺤﻤﺩ ﺸﻬﺎﺏ‪" .(1999) .‬ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺒﺤﻭﺙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻌﺔ ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻰ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﻭﺍﺌل ﻟﻠﻁﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺸﺭ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﺎﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﺎﺩ ﺤﺴﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻥ)‪" .(1999‬ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻀـﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘـﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻀـﺎﻓﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﺯﻤﻥ ﻟﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺼﻔﻭﻑ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ"‪ .‬ﺭﺴﺎﻟﺔ ﻤﺎﺠﺴﺘﻴﺭ‪ ،‬ﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪،‬‬
‫ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺒﻐﺩﺍﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪Christor, G. C. (1993). "Discrete Event System; Modeling and Performance‬‬
‫‪Analysis". R. R. Donnelley and sons, USA.‬‬
‫‪Taha, H. A. (2007). "Operations Research and Introduction", 5th ed. Simon‬‬
‫‪and Schaster Asiaptelted, Singapore.‬‬
‫‪Winston, W. L., (1994). "Operations Research Applications and Algorithm".‬‬
‫‪R.R. Donnelly and sons, USA.‬‬

‫} ‪{ 609‬‬
 2009/Dec./7-6 ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ‬-‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
M/M/1 ‫ ﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ﺘﻭﻟﻴﺩ ﺍﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﺼﻑ ﺍﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ‬: (1) ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻠﺤﻕ‬
function [tjump, systsize] = simmm1(n, lambda, mu)
% SIMMM1 simulate a M/M/1 queueing system. Poisson arrivals of
% intensity lambda. Poisson service times S of intensity mu.
%
% [tjump, systsize] = simmm1(n, lambda, mu)
%
% Inputs: n - number of jumps
% lambda - arrival intensity
% mu - intensity of the service times
%
% Outputs: tjump - cumulative jump times
% systsize - system size

if (nargin==0)
n=500;
lambda=0.8;
mu=1;
end

i=0; %initial value, start on level i

tjump(1)=0; %start at time 0
systsize(1)=i; %at time 0: level i

for k=2:n
if i==0
mutemp=0;
else
mutemp=mu;
end

time=-log(rand)/(lambda+mutemp); % Inter-step times:

% Exp(lambda+mu)-distributed
if rand<lambda/(lambda+mutemp)
i=i+1; %jump up: a customer arrives
else
i=i-1; %jump down: a customer is departing
end %if

systsize(k)=i; %system size at time i

tjump(k)=time;
end %for i

tjump=cumsum(tjump); %cumulative jump times

stairs(tjump,systsize);

{ 610 }
 2009/Dec./7-6 ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ‬-‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬

M/G/1 ‫ ﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ﺘﻭﻟﻴ ﺩ ﺍﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺼﻑ ﺍﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ‬: (2 ) ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻠﺤﻕ‬

function [jumptimes, systsize, systtime] = simmg1(tmax, lambda)
% SIMMG1 simulate a M/G/1 queueing system. Poisson arrivals
% of intensity lambda, uniform service times.
%
% [jumptimes, systsize, systtime] = simmd1(tmax, lambda)
%
% Inputs: tmax - simulation interval
% lambda - arrival intensity
%
% Outputs: jumptimes - time points of arrivals or departures
% systsize - system size in M/G/1 queue
% systtime - system times

if (nargin==0)
tmax=1500; % simulation interval
lambda=0.99; % arrival intensity
end

arrtime=-log(rand)/lambda; % Poisson arrivals

i=1;
while (min(arrtime(i,:))<=tmax)
arrtime = [arrtime; arrtime(i, :)-log(rand)/lambda];
i=i+1;
end
n=length(arrtime); % arrival times t_1,...,t_n

servtime=2.*rand(1,n); % service times s_1,...,s_k

cumservtime=cumsum(servtime);

arrsubtr=arrtime-[0 cumservtime(:,1:n-1)]'; % t_k-(k-1)

arrmatrix=arrsubtr*ones(1,n);
deptime=cumservtime+max(triu(arrmatrix)); % departure times
% u_k=k+max(t_1,..,t_k-k+1)

% Output is system size process N and system waiting

% times W.
B=[ones(n,1) arrtime ; -ones(n,1) deptime'];
Bsort=sortrows(B,2); % sort jumps in order
jumps=Bsort(:,1);
jumptimes=[0;Bsort(:,2)];
systsize=[0;cumsum(jumps)]; % size of M/G/1 queue
systtime=deptime-arrtime'; % system times

figure(1)
stairs(jumptimes,systsize);
xmax=max(systsize)+5;
axis([0 tmax 0 xmax]);
grid

figure(2)
hist(systtime,20);

{ 611 }
 2009/Dec./7-6 ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ‬-‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬

M/G/C ‫ ﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ﻟﺘﻭﻟﻴﺩ ﺼﻑ ﺍﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ‬: (3) ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻠﺤﻕ‬

function [jumptimes, systsize] = simmginfty(tmax, lambda)
% SIMMGINFTY simulate a M/G/infinity queueing system. Arrivals are
% a homogeneous Poisson process of intensity lambda. Service times
% Pareto distributed.
%
% [jumptimes, systsize] = simmginfty(tmax, lambda)
% Inputs: tmax - simulation interval
% lambda - arrival intensity
% Outputs: jumptimes - times of state changes in the system
% systsize - number of customers in system
% a much more optimal method to generate Poisson arrivals
% set default parameter values if ommited
if (nargin==0)
tmax=1500;
lambda=1;
end
% generate Poisson arrivals
npoints = poissrnd(lambda*tmax);
% conditioned that number of points is N,
% the points are uniformly distributed
if (npoints>0)
arrt = sort(rand(npoints, 1)*tmax);
else
arrt = [];
end
% uncomment if not available POISSONRND
% generate Poisson arrivals
% arrt=-log(rand)/lambda;
% i=1;
% while (min(arrt(i,:))<=tmax)
% arrt = [arrt; arrt(i, :)-log(rand)/lambda];
% i=i+1;
% end
% npoints=length(arrt); % arrival times t_1,...,t_n

% servt=50.*rand(n,1); % uniform service times s_1,...,s_k

alpha = 1.5; % Pareto service times
servt = rand^(-1/(alpha-1))-1; % stationary renewal process
servt = [servt; rand(npoints-1,1).^(-1/alpha)-1];
servt = 10.*servt; % arbitrary choice of mean
dept = arrt+servt; % departure times
% Output is system size process N.
B = [ones(npoints, 1) arrt; -ones(npoints, 1) dept];
Bsort = sortrows(B, 2); % sort jumps in order
jumps = Bsort(:, 1);
jumptimes = [0; Bsort(:, 2)];
systsize = [0; cumsum(jumps)]; %M/G/infinity system size process
stairs(jumptimes, systsize);
xmax = max(systsize)+5;
axis([0 tmax 0 xmax]);
grid

{ 612 }
 2009/Dec./7-6 ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ‬-‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ – ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺎﺕ‬

‫ ﺘﻭﻟﻴﺩ ﺍﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﻅﻡ‬:(2) ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬

Arrival Distribution - Uniform with mean 2.5 on 1,2,3,4
Departure Distribution - Uniform with mean 3 on 2,3,4

Departure
Arrival Lookup Table Lookup Table

0 1 0 2
0,25 2 0,333333 3
0,5 3 0,666667 4
0,75 4

Time Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Random # 0,313 0,637 0,091 0,760 0,438 0,501 0,359 0,720 0,901 0,550 0,033 0,942 0,811 0,348 0,835 0,024 0,665 0,848 0,746 0,613
Random # 0,275 0,734 0,970 0,717 0,146 0,020 0,221 0,685 0,214 0,568 0,486 0,565 0,605 0,294 0,191 0,477 0,976 0,792 0,230 0,210
Arrivals 2 3 1 4 2 3 2 3 4 3 1 4 4 2 4 1 3 4 3 3
Departures 2 4 4 4 2 2 2 4 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 4 2 2
Queue Length 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 2 0 1 2 2 4 2 1 1 2 3
Mean Length 0 0 0 0 0 0,16 0,285 0,25 0,444 0,6 0,545 0,583 0,692 0,785 1 1,062 1,058 1,055 1,105 1,2
End Mean Len 1,2
Mean Wait
Time 0,48
Max Length 4

Data 1,05 2,1 0,9 0,1 0,6 0,55 0,45 0,65 1,35 0,5
0,45 0,4 1,15 0,15 0,45 0,85 0,6 1,6 0,85 0,2

ave 0,7475

{ 613 }