This document contains 12 problems related to probability and random models. The problems cover a range of topics including using Venn diagrams to find probabilities of events, sequential experiments with coins and dice, conditional probabilities, binomial distributions, and the birthday problem. The goal is to calculate probabilities and determine optimal strategies for scenarios involving randomness.
This document contains 12 problems related to probability and random models. The problems cover a range of topics including using Venn diagrams to find probabilities of events, sequential experiments with coins and dice, conditional probabilities, binomial distributions, and the birthday problem. The goal is to calculate probabilities and determine optimal strategies for scenarios involving randomness.
This document contains 12 problems related to probability and random models. The problems cover a range of topics including using Venn diagrams to find probabilities of events, sequential experiments with coins and dice, conditional probabilities, binomial distributions, and the birthday problem. The goal is to calculate probabilities and determine optimal strategies for scenarios involving randomness.
This document contains 12 problems related to probability and random models. The problems cover a range of topics including using Venn diagrams to find probabilities of events, sequential experiments with coins and dice, conditional probabilities, binomial distributions, and the birthday problem. The goal is to calculate probabilities and determine optimal strategies for scenarios involving randomness.
Tutorial Workshop 1, 2016; week 2 = week of 7 March
1. Let A, B, and C be events. Use Venn diagrams to find expressions for the following:
(a) exactly one of the 3 events occurs
(b) exactly two of the events occur (c) one or more of the events occur (d) two or more of the events occur (e) all three events occur (f ) none of the events occur
2. (sequential experiments) A coin is tossed until the first time that the same result appears twice in succession. To every outcome in which there are n tosses, assign the probability 21n .
(a) List elements of the sample space S.
(b) Check that indeed the P [S] = 1. (c) List the elements of the event A = “the experiment ends before the fifth toss”. (d) What is the probability of the event A ?
3. Consider two events E1 and E2 .
(a) Suppose
P [Event E1 doesn’t occur] = 0.9
P [Event E2 doesn’t occur] = 0.8 P [Event E1 or E2 occurs] = 0.25
What is P [E1 and E2 both occur] ?
(b) Suppose instead that
P [Event E1 doesn’t occur or event E2 doesn’t occur] = 0.7
Then what is P [E1 and E2 both occur ]?
4. (reading the question; translating the question into a more familiar question) Consider a communication network with three nodes A, B, and C, where the goal is to route a call from A to C. Note that: (1) Between A and B there are two routes that a call can use: RAB1 or RAB2 . (2) Between B and C there are two routes that a call can use: RBC1 or RBC2 . Suppose that any of the routes RAB1 , RAB2 , RBC1 , RBC2 can be blocked (due to conges- tion) and that the blocking occurs independently of each other. Suppose the blocking probability on each of the four routes is p. What is the probability that a call from A to C is blocked?
1 5. (sequential experiments) A fair die is rolled and the number N1 showing is observed. An integer N2 is then selected at random from the range 1 to N1 (each integer is equally likely with probability 1/N1 ).
(a) Find the sample space of outcomes.
(b) Find the set of outcomes corresponding to event “the die shows four” (c) Find the set of outcomes corresponding to the event {N2 = 3} (d) Find the set of outcomes corresponding to the event {N2 = 6} (e) Compute the probability of the event {N2 = 3}. (f ) Compute the probability of the event {N1 = 4} given {N2 = 3} (g) Compute the probability of the event {N1 = 4} given {N2 = 5}
6. In an experiment, A, B, C, and D are events with probabilities:
P [A ∪ B] = 3/4 P [A] = 3/8 P [C ∩ D] = 1/4 P [C] = 1/2 A and B are disjoint, while events C and D are mutually independent.
a. What is P [A ∩ B] ? f. What is P [D] ?
b. What is P [B] ? g. What is P [C ∪ D] ? c. What is P [A ∩ B C ] ? h. What is P [C ∩ DC ] ? d. What is P [A ∪ B C ] ? i. What is P [C ∪ DC ] ? e. Is P [A ∩ B] = P [A]P [B] valid ? j. What is P [C C ∩ DC ] ?
7. This problem has three unrelated parts.
a. If P [A|B] = 0.3, P [AC |B C ] = 0.4, and P [B] = 0.7,
i. What is P [A|B C ]? ii. What is P [A]? iii. What is P [B|A]?
b. If P [E] = 0.25, P [F |E] = 0.5, P [E|F ] = 1/3, what is P [F ]?
c. If P [G] = P [H] = 2/3, show that P [G|H] ≥ 1/2.
8. (sequential experiments) An urn contains 6 red balls and 4 green balls. A ball is drawn at random from the urn, and then another ball is drawn at random without replacing the first ball. Let R1 denote the event that the first ball is red, and let R2 denote the event that the second ball is red.
a. What is P [R2 |R1 ]?
b. What is P [R2 |R1C ]? c. What is P [R2 ]? d. What is P [R1C |R2C ]?
2 9. 40 people are voting in an election where there are two possible candidates: Candidate A and Candidate B. Each voter must choose one of the two candidates, and decides to randomly select a candidate. Each voter chooses candidate A with probability p, and does so independently of the other voters. Express your answer for parts (a)-(d) in terms of mathematical expressions containing p. a. What is the probability that Candidate B obtains exactly 30 votes? b. What is the probability that Candidate B obtains 30 or more votes? c. Assume that there is only one voting machine, and the 40 voters are given a number from 1 to 40 which determines the order of voting. Let X = the number of the first person to vote for Candidate B. Find P [X ≤ 4]. d. Let E be the event that Candidate A receives exactly 25 votes. Find P [E|X ≤ 4]. 10. An experiment is defined as follows: One of two coins is first selected at random (50% probability for choosing each) and then is tossed. Coin #1 comes up ‘Heads’ with probability p1 , while Coin #2 is ‘Heads’ with probability p2 . Express your answers below in terms of p1 and p2 . a. What is the probability that the outcome of the experiment is ‘Heads’ ? b. What is the probability that Coin #2 was used given that a ‘Heads’ occurred? 11. The Birthday Problem: A room contains 30 people whose birthdays are not known. Each person’s birthday has an equal probability of being an element from the set {1, 2, . . . , 365}. These numbers represent the 365 days in a year (we will neglect 29th February). Consider the sample space S that contains all possible birthday outcomes for the 30 people (i.e., each outcome is a vector of 30 numbers). a. How many outcomes are in the sample space S? In other words, how many possible birthday combinations are there among 30 people? b. Find an expression for the probability that two or more people in the room have a birthday on the same day? Show your work! c. Now suppose that there are N (not necessarily 30) number of people in the room. What is the minimum value of N so that the probability that two or more people in the room have a birthday on the same day is higher than 0.5? Verify your answer via googling..... 12. (reading the question) The Monty Hall Game Show Problem: Consider a game show in which there are 3 closed doors, with a car behind one and goats behind the others. According to the rules of the game, the contestant first selects a door and the game show host then opens one of the other doors, to reveal a goat. The contestant is then given a choice: either she retains the original selection, or she switches to another door.
a. What is the probability of winning the car if the contestant sticks to her original selection? b. What should the contestant do if she wants the car? c. Repeat (a) and (b) for n number of doors, where n is any integer > 3.
