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SSCM 5th, 6th - 7th Lecture PDF

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Chapter - 6

Information Technology and


The Supply Chain
Strategic Supply Chain
Management
Chapter # 6 Outline

• The Role of Information Technology in the Supply Chain


• The Supply Chain IT Framework
• Customer Relationship Management
• Internal Supply Chain Management
• Supplier Relationship Management
• The Transaction Management Foundation
• The Future of IT in the Supply Chain
• Supply Chain Information Technology in Practice

PGDSCM
Role of Information Technology
in a Supply Chain
• Information is the driver that serves as the “glue” to create a
coordinated supply chain

• Information must have the following characteristics to be useful:


– Accurate
– Accessible in a timely manner
– Information must be of the right kind

• Information provides the basis for supply chain management decisions


– Inventory -Sourcing
– Transportation - Pricing & revenue management
– Facility

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Characteristics of Useful
Supply Chain Information
• Accurate – its not that 100 information will be correct but at least directionally
correct.

• Accessible in a timely manner – Accurate information sometimes exists but when


available it is out dated or not accessible form.

• It must be of the right kind- Company must decide what information to be


recorded so that valuable resources are not wasted collecting meaningless data.

• Information must be shared-a supply chain can be effective only if all its
stakeholders share a common view of the information that they use to make
business decision. Otherwise results in misaligned action plans that hurts supply
chain performance.

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Use of Information
In a Supply Chain

• Information used at all phases of decision making:


strategic, planning, operational

• Examples:
– Strategic: location decisions
– Planning: demand and other planning,
– Operational: what products will be produced during
today’s production run

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Use of Information
In a Supply Chain

• Inventory: demand patterns, carrying costs, stockout


costs, ordering costs
• Transportation: costs, customer locations, shipment sizes
• Facility: location, capacity, schedules of a facility; need
information about trade-offs between flexibility and
efficiency, demand, exchange rates, taxes, etc.

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Role of Information Technology
In a Supply Chain

• Information technology (IT)


– Hardware and software used throughout the supply chain to
gather and analyze information
– Captures and delivers information needed to make good
decisions
• Effective use of IT in the supply chain can have a
significant impact on supply chain performance

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
The Importance of Information Technology
In a Supply Chain

• Relevant information available throughout the supply


chain allows managers to make decisions that take into
account all stages of the supply chain

• Allows performance to be optimized for the entire supply


chain, not just for one stage – leads to higher
performance for each individual firm in the supply chain

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
The Supply Chain IT Framework
• The Supply Chain Macro Processes
– Customer Relationship Management (CRM)
– Internal Supply Chain Management (ISCM)
– Supplier Relationship Management (SRM)
– Plus: Transaction Management Foundation
– Figure 16.1
• Why Focus on the Macro Processes?
• Macro Processes Applied to the Evolution of Software

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Macro process
in a Supply Chain

Internal
Supplier Customer
Supply Chain
Relationship Relationship
Management
Management Management
(ISCM)
(SRM) (CRM)

Transaction Management Foundation (TMF)


(TFM)

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Customer Relationship Management
• The processes that take place between an enterprise and its
customers downstream in the supply chain
• Key processes:
– Marketing – Good It systems in the marketing area within CRM
provide analytics that improve the marketing decisions on pricing,
product profitability, among other functions.
– Selling – Good It System support sales force automation, configuration,
and personalization to improve the sell process.
– Order management - Good It systems enable visibility of orders
across the various stages that an order flows through before reaching
the customer.
– Call/Service center – Good It systems have helped call/ service
center operations by facilitating and reducing work done by customer
service representative and by routing to representative who are best
suited to service their request.

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Internal Supply Chain Management
Includes all processes involved in planning for and fulfilling a customer order
• ISCM processes:
– Strategic Planning- It focuses on network design of the supply chain.
– Demand Planning – it consists of forecasting demand and analyzing the impact
of demand of demand management tools such as pricing and promotions.
– Supply Planning – Factory planning and inventory planning capabilities are
typically provided by supply planning software.
– Fulfillment – Once a plan is in place to supply the demand, it must be executed.
This process links each order to a specific supply source and means of
transportation.
– Field Service –Finally, after the product has been delivered to the customer, it
eventually must be serviced. Service processes focus on setting inventory levels
for spare parts as well as scheduling service calls.

There must be strong integration needed between the ISCM and CRM macro processes

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Supplier Relationship Management
• Those processes focused on the interaction between the enterprise and
suppliers that are upstream in the supply chain
• Key processes:
– Design Collaboration -This software aims to improve the design of
products through collaboration between manufacturers and suppliers.
The software facilitates the joint selection of components that have
positive supply chain characteristics such as ease of manufacturability or
commonality across several end products.
– Source - successful software in this area helps analyze supplier
performance and manage contracts.
– Negotiate- successful software automates the RFQ process and
execution of auction.
– Buy – Successful automation in this area helps the procurement process
and decreases processing time and cost.
– Supply Collaboration - Once an agreement for supply is established
between the enterprise and a supplier. Supply chain performance can be
improved by collaborating on forecasts, production plans, and inventory
levels. Good software should be able to facilitate collaborative
forecasting and planning in a supply chain.
• There is a natural fit between ISCM and SRM processes

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
The Transaction Management
Foundation
• Enterprise software systems (ERP)

• Earlier systems focused on automation of simple


transactions and the creation of an integrated method of
storing and viewing data across the enterprise.

• Real value of the TMF exists only if decision making is


improved in terms of three macro processes.

• The extent to which the TMF enables integration across


the three macro processes determines its value.

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
The Future of IT the Supply Chain
• At the highest level, the three SCM macro processes will continue to drive
the evolution of enterprise software.

• Software focused on the macro processes will become a larger share of the
total enterprise software market and the firms producing this software will
become more successful.
• Functionality, the ability to integrate across macro processes, and the
strength of their ecosystems, will be keys to success.

• The following three important trends will impact on IT in the supply chain
– the growth in software as a service ( SaaS)
– Increased availability of real time data.
– Increased use of mobile technology.
• SaaS is defined as software that is owned, delivered, and managed
remotely.
• Salesforce.com is one of the best known pure SaaS supply chain software
providers. 2009 –growth 10%, 2014 – 16%
• Traditional enterprise software vendors such as SAP, oracle, Microsoft are
increasing the availability of their software using the SaaS model.

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Supply Chain Information Technology
In Practice
• Select an IT system that addresses the company’s key
success factors
• Take incremental steps and measure value
• Align the level of sophistication with the need for
sophistication
• Use IT systems to support decision making, not to make
decisions
• Think about the future

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Risk management in IT
Two major categories of Risk
• The first risk involved with installing new IT systems- a firm is forced to
transition from old processes to new IT systems.
• Trouble might be found in business processes or technical issues.
• New system requires to be learned and trained up
• Requires the entire organization to be onboard but top management are not
actively involved with the transition.
• Tremendous technical hurdles need to be overcome.
• Without proper integration the system doesn’t give great result/outcome as
promised earlier.
• The second risk is that the more a firm relies on IT to make decisions, the
higher is the risk that any sort of IT problem, ranging from glitches to power
outrages to viruses can completely shut down a firm.
• A firm must plan to face such kind of risk.

Strategic Supply Chain


Management PGDSCM
Risk management in IT
Three ideas to implementing IT systems.
• The first to install new IT systems in an incremental
fashion rather than in a “big bang” approach. It limits
the damage
• Second the firms can run duplicate system to make sure
the new system is performing well.
• Finally, implement only the level of complexity that is
needed. If certain capabilities or added complexities are
unnecessary, they should be left out.

Strategic Supply Chain


Management PGDSCM
Any Question? ?
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Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Strategic Supply Chain
Management

PART – 5

DEMAND FORECASING IN A SUPPLY CHAIN


Strategic Supply Chain
Management

Role of Forecasting in a Supply Chain

• Role of Forecasting in a Supply Chain

 The basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply


chain
 Used for both push and pull processes
 Examples:
 Production : scheduling, inventory, aggregate planning
 Marketing : sales force allocation, promotions, new product
introduction
 Finance : plant/equipment investment, budgetary planning
 Personnel : workforce planning, hiring, layoffs
– All of these decisions are interrelated
Strategic Supply Chain
Management

Characteristics of Forecasts

• Characteristics of Forecasts

 Forecasts are always wrong (rarely correct). Should


include expected value and measure of error)

 Long-term forecasts are less accurate than short-


term forecasts (forecast horizon is important)

 Aggregate forecasts are more accurate than


disaggregate forecasts
Strategic Supply Chain
Management

Components of a Forecast

• Components of a Forecast (needs to be considered while


forecasting)

– Past demand
– Lead time of product
– Planned advertising or marketing efforts
– State of the economy
– Planned price discounts
– Actions that competitors have taken

• Key Points
– Companies must balance objective and subjective factors when forecasting
demand.

– The goal of any forecasting method is to predict the systematic component of


demand and estimate the random component.
Strategic Supply Chain
Management

Forecasting Methods
• Forecasting Methods
– Qualitative – it is primarily subjective and depends on human judgment.
• Most appropriate when little historical data are available
• or experts have market intelligence that may affect forecast.
• It is necessary to forecast demand several years into the future in a new industry.
– Time Series – it uses historical demand to make forecast.
• it is based on assumption that past demand history is a good indicator of future
demand
• it is appropriate when basic demand pattern doesn’t vary year on year.
• it is simplest method so can serve as a good starting point for demand forecasting.
– Causal – it assumes that demand forecasting is correlated with certain environmental
factors such as state of economy and tax rates etc.
• as there is a correlation so this process uses estimates of what environmental factors
will be to forecast future demand.
• For example –product pricing is correlated with demand.

– Simulation – it imitate the consumer choices that give rise to demand to arrive at a
forecast.
• using simulation, a firm can combine time-series and causal methods.

It’s rather difficult to decide which method is most appropriate for forecasting. Several studies
have indicated that using multiple forecasting methods to create a combined forecast is more
effective than using any one method alone.
Strategic Supply Chain
Management

Forecasting Methods

• Forecasting Methods
– With Any forecasting method there is always a random element that can not
be explained by historical demand patterns. Therefore, any observed demand
can be broken into a systematic and a random component

Observed demand (0) = (S)+ random component (R)

– Systematic component measures the expected value of demand and consists


of level, the current deseasonalized demand and trend, the rate of growth or
decline in demand for the next period and seasonality is the predictable
seasonal fluctuations in demand.
– Random component is that part of the forecast that deviates from the
systematic part.
– A company can not forecast the direction of the random component. it can
predict is the random component’s size and variability, which provides a
measure of forecast error.
– The forecast error measures the difference between the forecast and actual
demand
Strategic Supply Chain
Management

Basic Approach to Demand Forecasting

• The following basic, five-step approach helps an


organization perform effective forecasting.

1. Understand the objectives of forecasting - such decisions include how


much of a particular product to make, how much to inventory, and how much to
order. All parties affected by a supply chain decision should be aware of the link
between the decision and the forecast.
2. Integrate demand planning and forecasting throughout the
supply chain
3. Identify the major factors that influence the demand forecast – At the
demand side company must ascertain whether demand is growing or declining or has a
seasonal pattern. Estimates must be on demand not on sale data. At the supply side company
must consider the available supply sources to decide on the accuracy of the forecast of the
desired.
4. Forecast at the appropriate level of aggregation - Aggregate forecasts
are more appropriate than disaggregate forecasts
5. Establish performance and error measures for the forecast –
companies should establish clear performance measures to evaluate the
accuracy and timeliness of the forecast.
Strategic Supply Chain
Management

Demand and Supply Planning In A Supply Chain

• Integrate demand Planning and Forecasting


throughout the Supply Chain

– Should link forecast to all planning activities throughout the supply


chain
– Capacity planning, production planning, promotion planning and
purchasing
– This link should exist at both the information system and the human
resources management level
– To accomplish this integration, it is a good idea for a firm to have a
cross-functional team, with members from each affected function
responsible for forecasting demand and an even better idea is to have
members of different companies in the supply chain working together
to create a forecast.
Strategic Supply Chain
Management

The Role of IT in Forecasting

– There is a natural role for IT in forecasting, given the large


amount of data involved, the frequency with which forecasting
is performed, and the importance of getting the highest-quality
results possible.
• The forecasting module within a supply chain IT system, often
called the demand planning module, is a core supply chain
software product.
• Most demand planning applications make it fairly easy to test the
various forecasting algorithms against historical data to determine
the one that provides the best fit to the observed demand
patterns.
• The IT systems can be used to best determine forecasting
methods not just for the firm overall, but also by product
categories and markets.
Strategic Supply Chain
Management

Forecasting in Practice

• Collaborate in building forecasts. Collaboration within your chain


partners can often create a much more accurate forecast.

– It takes an investment of time and effort to build the relationships with your
partners to begin sharing information and creating collaborative forecast.

• Share only the data that truly provide value. The value of data
depends on where one sits in the supply chain. Keeping the data shared
to what is truly required decreases investment in IT and improves the
chances of successful collaboration.

• Be sure to distinguish between demand and sales. Often, companies


make the mistake of looking at historical sales and assuming that this is
what the historical demand was. To get true demand, adjustments need to
be made for unmet demand due to stock outs, competitor actions, pricing,
and promotions. Failure to do so results in forecasts that do not represent
the current reality.
Chapter - 7
Coordination
in the Supply Chain
Lack of SC Coordination
and the Bullwhip Effect
• Supply chain coordination – when all stages in the supply
chain take actions together (usually results in greater total
supply chain profits)
• SC coordination requires each stage of the supply chain to
share information take into account the impact its actions
have on other stages.
• Lack of coordination results when:
– Objectives of different stages conflict or
– Information moving between stages is delayed or
distorted

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Bullwhip Effect
• Fluctuations in orders increase as they move up the supply chain
from retailers to wholesalers to manufacturers to suppliers.

• Distorts demand information within the supply chain, where different


stages have very different estimates of what demand looks like

• Results in a loss of supply chain coordination

• Examples: Proctor & Gamble (Pampers); -Orders for raw materials


were highly variable, although consumption was stable.

• Barilla pasta – weekly orders varies with a factor of 70 where as


weekly sales varies with a factor less than 3.

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Obstacles to Coordination
in a Supply Chain
• Incentive Obstacles

• Information Processing Obstacles

• Operational Obstacles

• Pricing Obstacles

• Behavioral Obstacles

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Incentive Obstacles

The sales typically measured by a manufacturer are


quantity sold to distributors or retailers (sell in), not the
quantity sold to final customers (sell-through).

Measuring performance based on sell is often justified on


the grounds that the manufacture's sales force does not
control sell-through.

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Information Processing Obstacles
• When demand information is distorted as it moves between different
stages of the supply chain, leading to increased variability in orders
within the supply chain.

• Any variability in demand is magnified as orders move up the supply


chain to manufacturers and suppliers. In SC where the fundamental
means of communication among different stages are the orders that
are placed, information is distorted as it moves up the supply chain.

• The lack of information sharing between stages of SC magnifies the


information distortion.

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Operational Obstacles

• Actions taken in the course of placing and filling orders


that lead to an increase in variability
• Ordering in large lots (much larger than dictated by
demand)
• Large replenishment lead times
• Rationing and shortage gaming (common in the computer
industry because of periodic cycles of component
shortages and surpluses)

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Pricing Obstacles

• When pricing policies for a product lead to an


increase in variability of orders placed
• Lot-size based quantity discounts create bull whip
effect.
• Price fluctuations- retailer purchase large lots
during the discounting period to cover demand for
future demand. (resulting in forward buying)

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Behavioral Obstacles
• Problems in learning, often related to communication in the supply chain and
how the supply chain is structured

• Each stage of the supply chain views its actions locally and is unable to see
the impact of its actions on other stages

• Different stages react to the current local situation rather than trying to
identify the root causes

• Based on local analysis, different stages blame each other for the
fluctuations, with successive stages becoming enemies rather than partners

• No stage learns from its actions over time because the most significant
consequences of the actions of any one stage occur elsewhere, resulting in a
vicious cycle of actions and blame

• Lack of trust results in opportunism, duplication of effort, and lack of


information sharing

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
The Effect of Lack of
Coordination on Performance
• Manufacturing cost – due to Bull whip effect variability increases which can be
addressed by either building excess capacity or holding excess inventory so both
increases cost.
• Inventory cost – to handle increased variability in demand increases cost
• Replenishment lead time – lack of coordination increases replenishment lead time in
supply chain
• Transportation cost – due to bull whip effect transportation requirements fluctuate
significantly which raises transportation cost.

• Labor cost for shipping and receiving (increases)


• Level of product availability (decreases)
• Relationships across the supply chain (worsens)
• Ultimately Profitability (decreases)

The bullwhip effect reduces supply chain profitability by making it more expensive to
provide a given level of product availability.

PGDSCM
Strategic Supply Chain
Management
Managerial Levers to
Achieve Coordination
• Aligning Goals and Incentives
• Improving Information Accuracy
• Improving Operational Performance
• Designing Pricing Strategies to Stabilize Orders
• Building Strategic Partnerships and Trust

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Aligning Goals and Incentives
• Align incentives so that each participant has an incentive
to do the things that will maximize total supply chain
profits
• Align incentives across functions- One key to coordination
decisions within a firm is to ensure that the objective any function uses to
evaluate a decision is aligned with the firm’s overall objective.
• Pricing for coordination- A manufacture use lot size-based quantity
discounts to achieve coordination for commodity products if the manufacturer
has large fixed costs associated with each lot. Ex - volume discounts,
revenue sharing etc.
• Alter sales force incentives from sell-in (to the retailer) to
sell-through (by the retailer to customers)-Managers should link
incentives for the sales staff to sell through by retailer rather than sell-in to
the retailer. It eliminates any motivation the sales staff may have for forward
buying elimination of forward buying helps reduce fluctuations in the order
stream.

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Improving Information visibility & Accuracy

• Sharing point of sale data – if retailers share POS data with other supply
chain stages, all supply chain stages can forecast future demand based on customer
demand. Sharing of POS helps reduce information distortion. Ex- wallmart, Dell.

• Collaborative forecasting and planning - Once Pos data shared,


different stages of the supply chain must forecast and plan jointly if complete
coordination is to be achieved. Manufacturer must be aware of the retailers promotion
plan for better coordination.

• Single stage control of replenishment - when a single stage


controls replenishment decisions for the entire chain, the problem of multiple forecasts
is eliminated and coordination within the supply chain follows. Several industry
practices Continuous replenishment programs (CRP), Vendor managed inventory
(VMI).

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Improving Operational Performance
• Reducing replenishment lead time
– Reduces uncertainty in demand.
– EDI is useful and can cut the lead time associated with order placement and
information transfer.
• Reducing lot sizes – a reduction of lot sizes decreases the amount of fluctuation
that can accumulate between any pair of stages of a supply chain thus decreasing
distortion.
– Computer-assisted ordering (CAO) & EDI helps reduce the fixed cost.
– The gap in the prices of truckload (TL) and less than truckload (LTL) shipping
encourages shipment in TL quantities.
– Technology and other methods to simplify receiving process. Such as (RFID) radio
frequency identification.
– Changing customer ordering behavior – for a particular day of a week.
• Rationing based on past sales and sharing information to limit gaming
- to diminish information distortion, mangers can design rationing schemes that
discourages retailers from artificially inflating their orders in the case of shortage, one
approach referred to as “Turn-and-earn”, is to allocate the available supply based on
past retailer sales rather than current retailer orders.
– Information sharing across supply chain to minimize shortage situations.

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Designing Pricing Strategies
to Stabilize Orders
• Moving from Lot size based to volume –based quantity discounts
– Encouraging retailers to order in smaller lots/ stable lot sizes and reduce forward
buying.
– Moving from lot size-based to volume-based quantity discounts (consider total
purchases over a specified time period).
• Stabilizing pricing
– Eliminate promotions and charging everyday low pricing, EDLP removes forward
buying.
– Limit quantity purchased during a promotion to decrease forward buying.
– Tie promotion payments paid to the retailer to the amount of sell-through rather than
amount purchased by the retailer.
• Building strategic partnerships and trust
– easier to implement these approaches if there is trust within supply chain.
- Sharing of accurate information that is trusted by every stage results in a better
matching of supply chain demand throughout the supply chain and a lower cost.

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Continuous replenishment and vendor managed inventories.

• A single point of replenishment decisions ensures visibility and a common


forecast that drives orders across the supply chain.

• CRP (Continuous replenishment programs) & VMI (Vendor–


managed Inventory

• CRP

– Wholesaler or manufacturer replenishes a retailer based on POS data.


– CRP may be supplier, distributor or third –party managed.
– CRP systems are are driven by actual withdrawals of inventory from retailer
warehouses.
– In CRP, inventory at the retailer is owned by the retailer.
– IT systems linked across the SC provide a good information infrastructure
on which CRP may be based.

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Continuous replenishment and vendor managed inventories.

• VMI (Vendor– managed Inventory


– Manufacturer or supplier is responsible for product inventory decisions at the retailer.
as a result control of the replenishment decision moves to manufacturer instead of
retailer.
– In many instances of VMI, the inventory is owned by the supplier untill it is sold by
the retailer.
– VMI requires the retailers to share demand information with the manufacturer to allow
it to make inventory decisions.
– VMI helps to convey customer data to manufacturer, which can be produced
accordingly with improved forecasts and better match with customer demand.
– VMI can allow manufacturer to increase its profits as well as profits for the entire SC
if both retailer and manufacturer margins are considered when making inventory
decision.

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Collaborative Planning, Forecasting
and Replenishment (CPFR)
• Voluntary inter-industry commerce standards (VICS) – has defined CPFR
as a business practice that combines the intelligence of multiple partners in the
planning and fulfillment of customer demand.
– According to VICS, since 1998, over 300 companies have implemented the
process.
– It is important to understand successful CPFR can be built only on a foundation in
which the two parties have synchronized their data and established standards for
exchanging information that.

• Sellers and buyers in a supply chain may collaborate along any or all of the
following four supply chain activities.
1. Strategy and planning
2. Demand and supply management
3. Execution
4. Analysis

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Collaborative Planning, Forecasting
and Replenishment (CPFR)
Sellers and buyers in a supply chain may collaborate along any or all of the
following four supply chain activities.
1. Strategy and planning - The partners determine the scope of the collaboration
and assign roles, responsibilities, and clear check points. In a joint business plan, they
identify significant events such as promotions, new product introductions, store
openings/closings and changes in inventory policies that affect demand and supply.

2. Demand and supply management - A collaborative sales forecast projects’


best estimate of consumer demand at the point of sale. This is then converted to a
collaborative order plan that determines future orders and delivery requirements
based on sales forecasts, inventory positions, and replenishment lead times
3. Execution – once the forecast is firm then it is converted to actual order. It
involves production, shipping, receiving, stocking of products.

4. Analysis - The key analysis tasks focus on identifying exceptions and evaluating
metrics that used to assess performance or identify trends.

Strategic Supply Chain PGDSCM

Management
Strategic Supply Chain
Management

Any Question?

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