OCR Maths S1

Topic Questions from Papers

Binomial and Geometric

Distributions

Answers


PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com
 Σx2p(x) = 2 M1 Attempt Σx2p(x) } or Σ(x- μ)2p(x): M2
Σx2p(x) – μ2 M1 Subtract their μ2 } PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com
= 1.99 A1 5 Answer, 1.99 or 1 99/100

51 (i) (a) Geo(0.05) M1 Geo(0.05) or 0.95 stated or implied

(19/20)5(1/20) M1 q5p attempted
= 0.0387 A1 3 Answer, a.r.t. 0.0387 ISW

(b) (19/20)10 M1 q10 or 1 – p – pq …– pq9

M1 [q9 or q11, or one wrong term: M1M0]
= 0.599 A1 3 Answer, a.r.t. 0.599
1 – (19/20)10 : M0M0A0
(ii) Mean = 1/p M1
= 20 A12 20, cao
6 (i) B(5, 3/8) M1 B(5, 3/8) stated (Q5, Jan 2005)
or 3/8, 5/8 seen and sum of powers = 5
5
C2(3/8)2(5/8)3 M1 3 Correct expression
physicsandmathstutor.com
= 5625/16384 or 0.343 A1 Answer, a.r.t. 0.343 ISW
physicsandmathstutor.com
Final ½ p 1 = /8
(ii)Mark Scheme
4732
3
Mark M1
Scheme
4732/01 or 3/8 / 1/2 or 3/8 x 2 June2005
January 2005
p1 = ¾ AG A1 2 ¾ correctly obtained. Must see explicit step.
1 3 3 3 3 1
72 (i) Boxes 1are independent B1 Verification
Both must beegin /context
2 x /4 = /8 or /8/ /4 = /2: M1A1
(iii) “(3 ½
Note: sfs)” means
p2 = /3 “answer which rounds to ... toM1 1
3 sfs”. If correct 1 1
ans seen to > 3sfs, ISW for later
2 or /3 / /2 or /3 x 2
rounding pProbability
= 2
/
same for each box B1
A1 2 Answer
1(ii)
2 3 B(8, 0.1) M1 0.1)2/3
B(8,Subtr or a.r.t.
stated
& squ or 0.1,0.667
0.9 seen and sum of powers =8
(i) Σd2 (a) M1 5 pairs & add
= 14 0.4305 A1
A1 0.43[05] correct
6 × their 14
(b) 1 – P(≤ 1) M1 1 – 0.8131 or 1 – (0.98 + 8x0.97x 0.1) correct
1− 0.1869 M1 4 Answer,
A1 a.r.t. 0.187
dep 1stM1
5 × ( 25 − 1)
A1 4
= 0.3
(iii) 2 × 0.4305 × 0.1869 M1 = 48 – 15x15
(a)Sxxy(b) } } {=3 }
M1 2 x (a) × (b) }2 5 } { }
0.16092 A1 Sxx = 55a.r.t.
3 Answer, – 150.161} { = 10 }
5 } M1 { } A1
Syy = 55 – 152 } { = 10 }
8 (i) 2 × 7! M1 7! and 8! used5 or }7P7 and 8{P8 } (Q7, Jan 2005)
8! M1 Correct formula, with “2 ×”
=¼ A1 3 Answer, 1
their /4Sor 0.25 only
xy__ M1dep = 0.3 A1
\/(SxxSyy)
1
(ii)(ii) Reverse 4! × 4!attempted
/4 orrankings or 3! × 3! or 3!
/4! M1
M1 3 correct
2 5 3 24 1 A1 2 T & I to make Σd2 = 40: 2 mks or 0 mks
⎛1⎞ 3! × 3!
⎜ ⎟ or M1 6 Correct expression
⎝4⎠ 4! × 4!
23 (i) (a) Geo(0.14) stated in (a) or (b) B1 or 0.86nx0.14 or 0.14nx0.86 in (a) or > M1 in (b)
1
= /16 A1 or Geo(0.86) stated in (a) or (b)
3 or 0.0625
(0.86)4 x 0.14 M1
= 0.0766 (3 sfs) A1 3 No wking: 0.077: B1M1A0
(iii) Attempt subdivide, allow one error. M1 By description or listing or implied by probs,
(b) 1 – 0.867 M2 1 – 0.868 eg 1 :–M1
(ii) – P(sep by 1)
Correct subdivision
or 0.14 into 30.86
+ 0.86x0.14…+ or 13
6 cases
x0.14 M1 All+8
3 or
th all 13 cases clearly present
term (r = 7 or 0) or 1 missing term: M1
= 0.652 (3 sfs) A1 3
Correct expression M1
(ii) 1/0.14 M1
50
== 13 /7 or 7.14 (3 sfs)
16
A1
A1 4 2or 0.8125 or a.r.t. 0.813 only
8
3!×3!
3Eg(i)correct: – 3 ×stated
(a) B(16,10.35) 1
; 1 – (ii) – 2 × B1 EgOr implied by
incorrect: 1 –use3!ofxtables
3! x 3or :(Q2,
M1M1M0A0
16
4!×4! June 2005)
0.35ax0.65b (a+b = 16) 8! in (a) or (b)
3! x 3! x 13 ; (3/4)2 + 2 x 1/4 x 2/4
1 – 0.8406 M1 Allow 1 – 0.9329
1 – 1/or 0.0671
16 – 3! x 3! : M1M0M0A0
(4! x 4!) Or complete method using 4! formula,
x 4!
90 × 15
P(r = 8-16 or 9-16) or 1-P(r = 0-7 or 0-8)
9
=264 − (3 sfs)
0.159 264 − 5 ×18 × 3 M1
A1 3
Formula correctly used
(i) 5 or
(b) 0.9771 – 0.1339
90 2 1720 − 5 ×18 2 M1 Allow 0.9771 – 0.2892
1720 − Or complete method using formula (r = 4-9)
= 0.843 (3 5sfs) A1 2
(ii) C=
16–0.06
6(0.38)
6 AG 10
(0.62) A1
M2 –0.06 correctly
Absent obtained
or incorr coeff : M1
y – /5 = – 0.06(x – 90/5)
15
M1 or aor=1615
C/65(0.38) 10
– (-0.06) x690
(0.62) : /5M1
y = 4.08
= 0.202 – 0.06x
(3 sfs) A1
A1 4 3Complete equation correct
8
(i) Correct
4(ii) subst inx>=two
Substitute S formulae
20.5 (y = 2.85) M1
M1 Any 20
Allow correct
(y = version
2.88) or 20.49
Substitute x = 19.5 ( y = 2.91) M1
A1 3 Answer 0.06 or –0.06, c.w.d
265 × 274.6 or
2.91 .1 − = 0.06
– 2.85
14464
5 14464.1 − 5 × 53 × 54.92
 = 0.652 (3 sfs) A1 3

(ii) 1/0.14 M1
PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com
= 50/7 or 7.14 (3 sfs) A1 2
8
34 (i) (a) B(16, 0.35) stated B1 Or implied by use of tables or
0.35ax0.65b (a+b = 16) in (a) or (b)
1 – 0.8406 M1 Allow 1 – 0.9329 or 0.0671
Or complete method using formula,
P(r = 8-16 or 9-16) or 1-P(r = 0-7 or 0-8)
= 0.159 (3 sfs) A1 3
(b) 0.9771 – 0.1339 M1 Allow 0.9771 – 0.2892
Or complete method using formula (r = 4-9)
= 0.843 (3 sfs) A1 2
(ii) 16C6(0.38)6(0.62)10 M2 Absent or incorr coeff : M1
or 16C6(0.38)10(0.62)6: M1
= 0.202 (3 sfs) A1 3
8
4 (i) Correct subst in > two S formulae M1 Any correct version (Q3, June 2005)
physicsandmathstutor.com
265 × 274.6 or
4732 14464.1 − Mark Scheme June
5 14464.1 − 5 × 53 × 54.2006
92
M1
⎛ 265 2 ⎞⎛ 274.6 2 ⎞ (14176.54 − 5 × 532 )(15162.22 − 5 × 54.922 )
⎜⎜14176.54 − ⎟⎟⎜⎜15162.22 − ⎟
54(i)
(i) ⎝0.4207 or 50.421 ⎠⎝ (3 sfs) 5 ⎟⎠ B1 or correct
or fully 1 – 0.6167
methodorwith
0.3833 2
(x - x )(3 sfs)
etc
or 0.825+25x0.824x0.2 + .. 25C4x0.421x0.24 A1 or 1- (6 correct terms, 0 to 5)
= –0.868 (3 sfs)
0.579(3) B1 3 2
(ii) No difference oe B1 1 Or slightly diff or more acc because of rounding
(ii) 10
C3 x (1-0.27)7 x 0.273 M1 errors when mult by 2.54 oe
= 0.261 (3 sfs) A1 2
Not just “more accurate”
(iii)Choose y on x stated B1ind or implied, eg by Sxy/Sxx or y = ax + b
(iii) Allow “=” thro’out or 1 - nC0 x 0.270 x 0.73n > 0.95 oe
1 – 0.73n > 0.95 allow incorrect sign M1
0.739 = 0.059 or 0.73n < 0.05 100 M1 must be correct
0.7310 = 0.043 nlog0.73 < log0.05 oe M1 ft ( 1 – 0.27) from (ii) for M1M1
10 with incorrect sign in wking: SCB2
10 with just 0.739 = 0.059: M1M1A1
n = 10 A1 3
Total 7
1
5(i) /3 + 1 /4 + p + q = 1 oe B1 (Q4, June 2006)
0 x 1/3 + 1 x 1/4 + 2p + 3q = 11/4 oe B1

equalize coeffs, eg mult eqn (i) by 2 or 3 M1 allow one error. ft their equns
Or make p or q subject of (i) or (ii) subst or subtr not nec’y
p = 1/4, q = 1/6 oe A1A1 5

(ii) Σ x2p (not /4 or /3 etc) (= 23/4) M1 > 2 non-zero terms correct. dep +ve result
1 2
– (1 /4) M1 indep if +ve result
or x-11/4)2p
(> 2 (non-0) terms correct): M2
ft (i) (0< p, q <1) or letters p, q both M1s
= 1.1875 or 13/16 oe A1 cao
sd = \/(their 1.1875) = 1.09 (3 sfs) B1f 4 dep 1st M1 &\/(+ve no.) eg \/2.75 = 1.66
Total 9
 120
3i(b) Increase B1 1 1 not just 5!
B1 Ignore “probably” etc
3 x 4! or 72
iia No change
(c) (÷ 5!) M1
B1 1 PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com
3
Total /5 oe A1 13 2 oe, eg 72/120
b Starts 1 or 21 (both) M1 12,13,14,15, (>2 of these incl 21, or allow 1 extra)
6 (i)
8(i) Geometric. B1 can be implied by wking
1 1 1
Each /attempt
5 + /5 x (or
1
/4 result or try) indep M1
B1 or 5x 3! or 4! + 3! trials,
2 In context. Not “events,. (÷5!)outcomes” . Ignore
= /4 oe A1 3 complement: full equiv steps for Ms
extra
Total 6
4ia B1 1
(ii)(a) ( 2 / 3 )3 x 1 / 3 M2 (2/3)2x1/3 or (2/3)4 x 1/3:
W& Y oe
allow other numerical “p” (0<p<1):M1
b 8
= /81 or 0.0988 (3 sfs) B1
A1 1 3
X oe
(b)
ii (2/3)3Geo probs always decrease M1
B1 1 Geo (2/3fixed
notnot )3 x ….no. of2 values
2 3 1 2 1 2 1
1 – (or/3)Geo has no upper limit to x or x ≠ 0 M1 or /have
diags 3 + /fixed
3x /3 +no
( /of
3) trials
x /3 M2
2 4 4
1 – ( /3) or 1 –not (“q”) M1
Geo has +ve skew
iii B1 or 3 terms, with 2 correct
indep M1
W B1dep or 3 correct terms + 1
allow Bin probs rise 2then fall extra M1
2 or “p” + “qp” + “q p” M1
Bin probs cannot fall then rise or 1 – sum of 3 correct terms M1
or or
19
= /27 bimodal
0.704 (3sfs) A1 3 “p” means num value, not 1/3
Total 5
140 × 106.8
(iii)5i 3 2685 − or 2685 – B1f 1 or 1/”p”
8 M1 Correct sub in any correct formula for b
2 8x17.5x13.35
19 140
/273500 − (1 – 0.7037) ft (b) for M1M1(incl. - xmethod
must(xsee ) etc) if ft
(iv) 1– 8x17 52
or 0.2963
3500 M1
8
(8/27) x136 /27
2 19
0.2963 x 0.70372
M1 Allow figs rounded to 2 sfs for M1M1
= /175 or 0.777 (3 sfs) A1
= 1216/19683 = 0.0618 (3 sfs) A1 3 cao. allow art 0.0618 or 0.0617
y – 106.8/8 = 0.777(x – 140/8) M1 or a = 106.8/8 – 0.777x140/8 ft b for M1
y=0.78x –0.25 or better or y =136/175x –1/4 A1 > 2 sfs sufficient for coeffs
Total 12 4
ii 0.78 x 12 – 0.25 M1 M1: ft their equn
Total 72 marks
= 9.1 (2 sfs) A1f 2 A1: dep const term in equn (Q8, June 2006)
iiia Reliable B1 Just “reliable” for both: B1
b Unreliable because extrapolating oe 69 B1 2
Total 8

6i
7 (i) Geo(2/3) stated physicsandmathstutor.com
M1 or implied by (1/3)n x 2/3
4732 (1/3)3 x 2/3 M1
Mark Scheme Jan 2007
= 2/81 or 0.0247 (3 sfs) A1 3
ii (1/3)3 M1 or 2/3+1/3x2/3+(1/3)2x2/3 : M2
1 - (1/3)3 50
M1 one term omitted or extra or wrong: M1
1 - (1/3)4 or 1- (2/3+1/3x2/3+(1/3)2x2/3 ):M1
26
/27 or 0.963 (3 sfs) A1 3
iii 1 / 2/3 M1
= 3/2 oe A1 2
Total 8
2
7i /9 or 7/9 oe seen B1 (Q6, Jan 2007)
3
/9 or 6/9 oe seen B1
1
/8 or 7/8 oe seen B1
Correct structure B1 ie 8 correct branches only,
ignore probs & values
All correct B1 5 including probs and values,
but headings not req’d
3
ii /10 x 7/9 + 7/10 x 3/9 + 7/10 x 6/9 M2 or 3/10x7/9 + 7/10 or 1 – 3/10 x 2/9
M1: one correct prod or any prod + 7/10
14
/15 or 0.933 oe A1 3 or 3/10 x 2/9
3
iii /10 x 2/9 x 7/8 + 7/10 x 6/9 M2 M1: one correct prod
21
/40 or 0.525 oe A1 3 cao
No ft from diag except: with replacement: (i) structure: B1 (ii) 91/100: B2 (iii) 0.553: B2
Total 11
8i Med = 2 B1 cao
LQ = 1 or UQ = 4 M1 or if treat as cont data:
read cf curve or interp at 25 & 75
IQR = 3 A1 3 cao
 60 × 72
767 − or ___227__ All correct.
physicsandmathstutor.com Or 767-8x7.5x9_____
8 √698√162 2
)(810-8x92))
\ PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com
/((1148-8x7.5
4732 M1
Mark Scheme Janformula
2007 for r
60 2 72 2 or correct substn in any correct
(1148 − )(810 − )
8 8
11 1 6
8
9i(i) =C 5 x ( (3
0.675 x (3/4)5
/4) sfs) A1M1 3 or 462 x (1/4)6 x (3/4)5
b 10.0268
11
(3 sfs)
11
B1A1 2
ii q = 0.05 or (1 – p) =
y always increases with x or ranks 0.05 B1M1 +ve(any letter
grad p)11 = 0.05
exceptIncrease
thro’out. oe
in steps.
11
same 0.05 M1 Same
oe order.
log 0 .05
Both ascending
or invlog( ) order
q = 0.762 or 0.7616 . . . oe A1 2 Perfect RANK corr’n 11
p = 0.238 (3 sfs) ft depextra
A1f 4 Ignore M2
iii 11 x p x (1 – p) = 1.76 oe M1 NOT
notIncreasing
11pq = 1.76proportionately
2 2
iia Closer to 1,
11p – 11p = 1.76or increases or p - p = 0.16 B1A1 any correct equn after mult out
11p2 – 11
because nearer
p + 1.76 0 or p2- p+0.16 = 0 B1A1 2 Corr’n
to st= line stronger.
or equiv with = 0
(25p2 – 25p + 4 = 0) Fewer outliers. “They” are outliers
(5p – 1)(5p – 4) = 0 Ignore extra fact’n or subst’n for their quad
or correct
b None, p =remains
or or 11 - \/(11at21– 4x11x1.76) B1M1 equ’n eg p = 1±\/(1-4x0.16)
Because y still increasing 2 x 11with x oe B1 2 Σd2 still 0. Still same order. 2 Ignore extra
p = 0.2 or 0.8 A1 5NOT differences still the same.
Total 11 NOT ft (i)(b)
iii 13.8 to 14.0 B1 1 (Q9, Jan 2007)
iv Totalor graph
(iii) 72ormarks
diag or my est B1 Must be clear which est. Can be implied.
“This est” probably ⇒ using equn of line
Takes account of curve B1 2 Straight line is not good fit. Not linear.
Corr’n not strong.
Total 12
7i
9 (i) P(contains voucher) constant oe B1 Context essential
Packets indep oe B1 2 NOT vouchers indep

ii 0.9857 or 0.986 (3 sfs) B2 2 B1 for 0.9456 or 0.946 or 0.997(2)

or for 7 terms correct, allow one omit or
extra
NOT 1 – 0.9857 = 0.0143 (see (iii))
iii (1 – 0.9857)
= 0.014(3) (2 sfs) B1ft Allow 1- their (ii) correctly calc’d
1
iv B(11, 0.25) or 6 in 11 wks stated or B1 or 0.75a × 0.25b (a + b = 11) or 11C6
impl M1
11
C6 × 0755 × 0.256 (= 0.0267663) M1 dep B1
P(6 from 11) × 0.25 A1 4
= 0.00669 or 6.69 x 10-3 (3 sfs)
Total 9
(Q7, June 2007)

62

52
 (p – 0.5)2 = 0.04 M1
(p – 0.5) = ±0.02 PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com
p = 0.3 or 0.7 A1
Total 8
9ia 1 / 1/5
10 (ia) M1
=5 A1 2
b ( 4 / 5 )3 × 1 / 5 M1
= 64/625 or 0.102 (3 sfs) A1 2
c (4/5)4 M1 or 1- (1/5 + 4/5×1/5 + (4/5)2×1/5 + (4/5)3 ×1/5)
NOT 1 - (4/5)4
= 256/625 or a.r.t 0.410 (3 sfs) or 0.41 A1 2
iia P(Y=1) = p, P(Y=3) = q2p, P(Y=5) = q4p P(Y =1)+P(Y =3)+P(Y =5)= p + q2p + q4p
p, p(1 - p)2, p(1 – p)4
q1-1, q3-1, q5-1
or any of these with 1 – p instead of q
“Always q to even power × p”
Either associate each term with relevant prob
B1 1 Or give indication of how terms derived
physicsandmathstutor.com > two terms
b Recog that c.r. = q2 or (1 – p)2 M1 or eg r = q2p/p
4732 p p Mark Scheme January 2008
S∞ = or M1
1− q 2
1 − (1 − p) 2
4732 P(odd)
Probability
=
1− q & StatisticsM11 ( = __p__ ) = ___p__
1 − q2 ( 2p – p2 ) p(2 – p)
1− q
= means “answerMust
Note: “(3 sfs)” whichsee this to
rounds step for3 A1
... to sfs”. If correct
A1 ans
4 seen
( =to__1__
> 3sfs, ISW
) =for____1____
later rounding
(1 − q)(1only
Penalise over-rounding + q )once in paper.
( 2–p ) 2 – (1 – q)
1ia 5! 1or 5P5 M1
(== 120 AG) A1 2
1 + 4q
b 4! or P4 seen M1 or 2 × 3! or 2! × 3! or 2! × 3P3
4! × 2 M1dep 2 × 3! × 4 (Q9, June 2007)
63
48 A1 3
ii / C2 or /5 × ¼ × 2 or 0.4 × 0.25 or /5P2
1 5 1 2
M1 Allow M1 for 5C2 or 1/5 x ¼ or 1/20
or 1/5×1/5×2 or 2/25 oe
1
= /10 A1 2
Total 7
2i (i)
11 ( /5) × ( /5) oe
4 3 1
M1 Allow M1 for (4/5)4 x (1/5)
64
= /625 or 0.102 (3 sfs) A1 2
ii (4/5)4 alone Allow (4/5)3 or (4/5)5; not 1 - (4/5)4
1 4 1 4 2 1 4 3 1
or 1– ( /5 + /5x /5 +( /5) x /5 + ( /5) x /5) M1 Allow one term omitted or wrong
or “correct” extra
256
= /625 or 0.410 (3 sfs) A1 2 Allow 0.41
iii 5 B1 1
Total 5
3i 24 × 39 24.8
or 24.8 or 3.8524.8 or 2429.8Jan 2008)
212 − 14.8×56.8 840.64 ×7.54 (Q2,
r= 5
2 B2 2
24 392 B2 for correct subst in r
(130 − )(361 − )
5 5 B1 for correct subst in any S
ii R = 0.7 or (B) B1 (A) and (B) true: B0B0
Definition of rs is PMCC for ranks B1 2 dep 1st B1
iii r = 0.855 B1
rs = 0.7 B1 2 or “unchanged”: B1B1
Interchanged: B1
Total 6
4i 0.4 x p = 0.12 or 0.12/0.4 or 12/40 oe M1
p = 0.3 oe A1 2
ii 0.4 x (1 – their 0.3) oe eg 40/100 × 28/40 M1 or 0.4 – 0.12 or 0.28 or 28 seen
Not 0.4×0.88 unless ans to (i) is 0.12
0.28 or 28% oe A1ft 2
Total 4
5ia Binomial stated or implied B1 by use of tables or 0.2a x 0.8b, a+b = 12
0.9806 B1 2
b 0.5583 seen M1 add 10 corr terms or 1-(add 3 corr terms):
1 – 0.5583 M1 M2
 ii -0.4
(Σypx (1)2 – their 0.3) oe eg 40/100 × 28/40 M1
M1 or 0.4
dep +ve– result
0.12 or 0.28 or 28 seen
= 0.61 oe A1 5 Not 0.4×0.88 unless PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com
ans to (i) is 0.12
0.28 or 28% oe A1ft 2 (-1.3) ×0.2+(-0.3)2×0.3+0.72×0.5: M2
2

Total physicsandmathstutor.com
4 one term correct: M1
5ia(ia)
12 Binomial stated or implied B1 by use of tables or 0.2a x 0.8b, a+b = 12
4732 0.9806 Mark SchemeB1 2 Use of Z: MR, lose last January 2009
A1 (2.55, 0.4475)
iib 0.2x0.25
0.5583 seen + 0.3x0.1 or 0.05 + 0.03 alone M2
M1 M1
addfor 10 one
corrproduct eg correct×2:
terms or 1-(add M1
3 corr terms):
or clearly ident (1,2), (2,1): M1
4732 Probability & Statistics 1
1 – 0.5583
= 0.08 oe
M1
A1 3
M2

iii 0.3×0.1 + 0.3×0.25 + 0.3×0.65 or 1– 0.7946 or 0.205 or 1-0.6774 or 0.323

= 0.442 +(30.25×0.2
sfs) + 0.25×0.5 alone A1 3 M1 : any 3, 4 of or these
1-0.3907prodsoralone
0.609
Note: “(3 sfs)” means “answer which rounds to ... to 3 sfs”. If correct ans seen to > 3sfs, ISW for later
or 0.03 + 0.075 + 0.195 + 0.05 + 0.125 M2 or these 5 prods
or add 9 termsplusor1 extra
1-(addor2repeat
or 4
rounding. Penalise over-rounding only once in paper.
terms): orM1 (ii) + prod
15
ii C4 x 0.34 x 0.711 M2 2 15
C x 0.3 or 11
0.3x +0.7 4
prod or 0.25 + prod
: M1
1 (i) 0.22 + 0.7 × 0.1 × 2 M2 0.2 or 0.7 × 40.1: or clearly identifyM1
= 0.219 (3 sfs) A1 3 (1,2) (3,2) (2,2) (2,1) (2,3)
= 0.18 AG or 19/ oe A1 3 A1no errors seen NB 2 × 0.9 × 0.1 = 0.18 M0A0
Total = 0.475 40 83
(ii) 0.28 + 2×0.18 + 3×0.04 + 4×0.01 M1 > 2 termsM2 correct (excl
for 0.3 + (0.2 0×0.49)
+ 0.5) × 0.25
÷ or
5 (or (Q5, Jan 2008)
0.25 + (0.1etc):
4 or 10 M0 × 0.3
+ 0.65)
= 0.8 oe A1 or 0.3 + 0.252 – 0.3 × 0.25
0.28 + 22×0.18 + 32×0.04 + 42×0.01 M1 > 2 terms correct or 1 (excl ×0.49)
– (0.2+0 0.5)(0.1+0.65)
2
- “0.8” M1 dep +ve result
= 0.88 oe A1 335 cao M1 for (0.2+ 0.5)(0.1+0.65)
Σ(x – μ)2 : 2 terms: M1; 5 terms M2
Total 11
7ia(ia)
13 Results or matches are indep B1 2 allow “wins” indep; not “trials” indep
0.8 ×0.49+0.22×0.28+1.22×0.18+2.22×0.04+3.22×0.01
Prob of winning is constant B1 2 not “success”
SC Use original table, 0.4:B1 0.44: B1
ib No of wins (or losses) B1 1
Total 8
ii or (1 – p) for q & allow omit bracket
2(i)(a) 21 10 11× 245
202 21 .3 9 12 correct sub in any correct formula for b
8736.C910−p q = C9 p q M1 or 352716 p10q11 = 293930 p9q12
12 p = q or7 12p(1-or
1658
-1 . 24
p) = 1 or similar
M1
M1M1
236 . 8921
M1 for /10 or /5 or 1.2 or 5/6 or 0.833
12 6
eg
10 202 210 1470.86 210.1249
M1 for p & q cancelled correctly
7300 −
7
1.2p = 1 – p oe(=eg
= 1.127… p =AG
1.13 0.833(1-
) p) M1 or equiv equn in p or q (cancelled)
A1 2 must see 1.127… ; 1.127.. not
alone:
or 352716 p = 293930(1- p ) nos not nec’y202cancelled; algM1A1
denom
(b) y – 245.3
/ 7 = 1.13(x – / 7 ) 202
M1 or a = 245.3
/ 7 - 1.13 × / 7
y = 1.1p =x5+ /112.5 (or 2.4)
or 0.455 (3or y =oe1.13x +2.43
sfs) A1 2 A12 sfs5 suff.
Total (exact:
8 y = 1.127399..x + 2.50934…)
(ii)(a) (1.1(..) × 30 + 2.5(..)) = 35.5 to 36.5 B1f 1
(Q7, Jan 2008)
(b) (1.1(..) × 100 + 2.5(..)) = 112.4 to 115.6 B1f 1
(iii) (a) Reliable B1 Both reliable: B1 (a) more reliable than (b) B1
because (a) within data
(b) Unreliable because extrapolated B1 2 or (b) outside data B1
Ignore extras
Total 8
(ia) Geo stated
3(i)(a)
14 M1 or impl. by (7/ 8 )n(1/ 8 ) or (1/ 8 )n(7/ 8 ) alone
7 2 1
( /8) ( /8) M1
49
/ 512 or 0.0957 (3 sfs) A1 3
7 3
(b) ( / 8 ) alone M2 or 1-(1/ 8 +7/ 8× 1/ 8 +(7/ 8 )2×1/ 8 ): M2
one term incorrect, omit or extra: M1
1 – (7/ 8 )3 or (7/ 8 )2 alone: M1
343
/ 512 or 0.670 (3 sfs) allow 0.67 A1 3
(ii) 8 B1 1
(iii) Binomial stated or implied M1 eg by (7/ 8 )a(1/ 8 )b (a+b = 15, a,b ≠ 1), not just nC r
15 7 13 1 2
C2( /8) ( /8) M1 34
= 0.289 (3 sfs) A1 3
Total 10
4 (i) 1 2 3 4 5 or 5 4 3 2 1 M1 attempt ranks (Q3, Jan 2009)
3 5 4 1 2 3 1 2 5 3 A1 correct ranks
Σd2 (= 32) M1dep S xx or S yy =55–152/ 5 (=10) or S yy =39–152/ 5 (= -6)
6 × “32”
1– / 5(25 – 1) M1dep -6/√(10×10)

= - 0.6 A1 5

34
 (one omit: M1)
PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com
Total 12

715
(i) (i) Binomial B1
n = 12, p = 0.1 B1 B(12, 0.1) : B2
Plates (or seconds) independent oe B1 NOT: batches indep
Prob of fault same for each plate oe B1 4 Comments must be in context
Ignore incorrect or irrelevant

(ii)(a) 0.9744 – 0.8891 or 12C 3 ×0.99×0.13 M1

= 0.0852 or 0.0853 (3 sfs) A1 2
(b) 1 – 0.2824 or 1- 0.912 M1 allow 1 – 0.6590 or 1 – 0.911
=0.718 (3 sfs) A1 2
(iii) “0.718” and 1 – “0.718” used B1 ft (b) for B1M1M1
(1-0.718)4 + 4(1-0.718)3×0.718
+ 4C 2 (1-0.718)2×0.7182 M2 M1 for any one term correct
(eg opp tail or no coeffs)

1 – P(3 or 4) follow similar scheme M2 or M1

1 – correct wking (= 0.623) B1M2
= 0.317 (3 sfs) A1 4 cao
physicsandmathstutor.com
Total 12
4732 Mark Scheme (Q7, Jan 2009)
June 2009

4732 Probability & Statistics 1

1
16 Q1: if consistent “0.8” incorrect or 1/ 8 , 7/ 8 or
0.02 allow M marks in ii , iii & 1st M1 in i
i Binomial stated M1 or implied by use of tables or 8C 3
or 0.2a×0.8b (a+b = 8)
0.9437 – 0.7969 or C 3 ×0.23×0.85
8
M1
= 0.147 (3 sfs) A1 3
36
ii 1– 0.7969 M1 allow 1– 0.9437 or 0.056(3)
or equiv using formula
= 0.203 (3 sf) A1 2

iii 8 × 0.2 oe M1 8 × 0.2 = 2 M1A0

1.6 A1 2 1.6 ÷ 8 or 1/ 1.6 M0A0

Total 7
2 first two d’s = ±1 B1 S xx or S yy = 28 B1 (Q1, June 2009)
Σd2 attempted (= 2) M1 S xy = 27 B1
1– 6 × “2” M1dep S xy /√(S xx S yy ) M1 dep B1
7(72 – 1)
27
= / 28 or 0.964 (3 sfs) A1 1234567 & 1276543 (ans 2/ 7 ): MR, lose A1

Total 4
3i x independent or controlled or changed B1 1 Allow Water affects yield, or yield is
dependent
Value of y was measured for each x or yield not control water supply
x not dependent Not just y is dependent
Not x goes up in equal intervals
Not x is fixed

ii (line given by) minimum B1 B1 for “minimum” or “least squares” with

sum of squs B1 2 inadequate or no explanation

iii S xx = 17.5 or 2.92 or 91 – 212/ 6

S yy = 41.3 or 6.89 B1 or 394 – 462/ 6 B1 for any one
S xy = 25 or 4.17 or 186 – 21×46/ 6
r = ___S __ M1 dep B1
 physicsandmathstutor.com
PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com
4732 Mark Scheme June 2009

417 Q4: if consistent “0.7” incorrect or 1/ 3 , 2/ 3 or

0.03 allow M marks in ii , iii & 1st M1 in i
i Geo stated M1 or implied by qn × p alone (n > 1)
0.73 × 0.3 alone M1 0.73 – 0.74
1029
/ 10000 or 0.103 (3 sf) A1 3

ii 0.74 alone M1 1 – (0.3 + 0.7×0.3 + 0.72×0.3 + 0.73×0.3)

NB 1– 0.74 : M0
= 2401/ 10000 or 0.240 (3 sf) A1 2

iii 1 – 0.75 M2 or 0.3 + 0.7×0.3 + + …. +0.74×0.3 M2

M1 for one term extra or omitted or wrong
or for 1– (above)
M1 for 1– 0.76 or 0.75

= 0.832 (3 sfs) A1 3 NB Beware: 1 – 0.76 = 0.882

8
25
5i / 10 M1 Allow 25/ (9to10) or 2.78: M1 (Q4, June 2009)
= 2.5 A1 2
physicsandmathstutor.com
ii (19.5, 25) B1
4732 (9.5, 0) B1 2
Mark Scheme Allow (24.5, 47) June 2009
Both reversed: SC B1
18
9i (i) (1 – 0.12)n M1 If three
Can given, ignore
be implied by 2nd (24.5, 47) n – 1
M1 allow
log 0.05 or 0.8823 = 0.052...
iii Don’t know
log 0.88 exact or specific values
or 0.8824 of x
= 0.046... M1 Exact
or data
log 0.88 notorknown
0.05 23.4(…)
(or min or max or quartiles or median or
whiskers).
n = 24 oe A1 3 Allow incorrect
Ignore because data is or
inequ rounded
equals signs
Can only estimate (min or max or
ii quartiles
6 or4 median
C 2 × 0.88 × 0.122 or whiskers)
(= 0.1295…oe) M3 or 0.884 × 0.122 M2
Can’t work out (…..) oe or 6C 2 × 0.884 × 0.122 + extra M2
Data is grouped oe B1 1
or 2 successes in 6 trials implied
Total 5 or 6C 2 M1

× 0.12 M1 dep > M1

= 0.0155 A1 5
0.884×0.122×0.12: M2M1
0.884 × 0.123 M0M0A0
unless clear P(2 success in 6 trials) × 0.12
in which case M2M1A0

Total 8
(Q9, June 2009)
Total 72 marks

46
 4732 Probability & Statistics 1 PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com
Note: “(3 sfs)” means “answer which rounds to ... to 3 sfs”. If correct ans seen to > 3sfs, ISW for later rounding
Penalise over-rounding only once in paper.
119 (i) attempts at threading indep B1 in context
prob of succeeding in threading const B1 2 in context
(ii) (a) 0.74 × 0.3 M1
= 0.0720 (3sf) A1 2 Condone 0.072
5
(b) 0.7 M2 or 1-(0.3+0.7×0.3+0.72×0.3+0.73×0.3
+0.74×0.3)
M1 for one term omitted or extra or
physicsandmathstutor.comwrong or 1-0.7⁵ or(0.3+...+0.7⁴×0.3) or
= 0.168 ( 3 sfs) A1 3 0.3, 0.7 muddle or 0.74 or 0.76 alone.
4732 Mark Scheme 0.6 not 0.7 M0 in (a) M1 inJanuary(b) 2010
1/3,2/3 used M1in (a) M1 in (b)
(iii) likely to improve with practice B1 or thread strands gradually separate
5! 1st B1 must be in context.
8 (i) /2 M1 Allow 5P3
hence independence unlikely hence independence unlikely
= 60 A1 2
or prob will increase each time B1 2 or prob will decrease each time
or similar
(ii) 4! M1 Allow 2×4!
Allow ‘change’
= 24 A1 2
Total 2 3 [9]
(iii) /5 × /4 or3/5×2/4 M1 allow M1 for 2/5 × 3/5 × 2 or 12/25
2 (i) (a) ×Use2 of correct midpts B1
M1 11,14,18,25.5
or (6×3!)÷(i) M2 or (Q1, Jan 2010)
Σ 3 ÷ Σf
lf
= /5 oe (= 706 ÷ 40) M1 l within
A1 3 3!÷(i),6÷(i) class, > (i)
,(6+6)÷ ,6k÷lf(i)
three seen
or 6×6 or
= 17.65 A1 [17.575,17.7]
36 or 1-correct answer M1
(k,integer2 ≤ 5)
Σl2f M1
(= 13050.5) > three l f seen
Total [7]
20
9 (i) p2 "13050.5" −"17.65"2 (= √14.74) B1 1
M1 ÷40,-mean²,√.Dep>0.
(ii) (q2p)2 40
oe =AG B1 1
∑(l-17.65)²f, at least 3 M1,÷40,√
(iii) = 3.84 ( 3 sfs)
r=q² B1 May be implied
A1 6 M1,3.84 A1.
÷4 max B1M0A0M1M0A0
a/(1-r) used M1 With a=p²and r=q²or q ⁴
(b) mid pts used or data grouped not “orig values were guesses”
or exact p2
values unknown oe B1 1
(S∞ =) A1
(ii) 20 ÷ 5 1 − q 2 M1 condone 20 ÷ [4,5] or ans 5
=4 A1
M1 2 Attempt to simplify using p+q=1
(iii) 20.5th value requ’d and condone 20
correctly.
th
Dep on r = q² or q⁴
1stptwo
2 classes contain 14 values M1 oe
=16 – 20 B1 2 or (third 1 − q)class oe
2
or p²/p(1+q)
(iv) (a) 1 − (
increase1 − p ) 2
B1 1 (1 − q)(1 + q )
p/(2-p) AG physicsandmathstutor.com
(b) decrease B1 51 Correctly obtain given answer showing
A1
4732Total [13] at least one intermediate step.
Mark Scheme June 2010
3iidP2Total Shm = 0.2412
(i) Contraction oe B1(ft) or[7]length Allow x or shorter,
decreased, ÷5 pushed in, shrunk,
Shh = 0.10992 smaller (Q9, Jan 2010)
Smm = 27.212
Total 72 marks B1 any one S correct
r = ___Shm__ M1 ft their Ss
Unreliable √( ShhSmm)extrapolated oe B1 2 or not in the range of x
because
= 0.139 (3 sfs) or not3in range of previous results
A1
Total(ii) Small, low or not close to 1 or close 10 B1 ft 1st B1 about value of r
21
4ia (ia) 0.299 (3 to 0sf)oe B1 1 2nd B1 about diag
ib 0.2991pts not close to line oe
– 0.1040 M1 B1
Must subtract correct pair from table
(iii) = 0.195none or unchanged
1280
(3 sf) or 6561 oe or “0.139” A1
oe 2 B1 1
Larger11oe
iia(iv) 15C4×(1-0.22) ×0.224 M1 B1
Allow1 M1 for 15C4×0.8811×0.224
Total= 0.208 (3 sf) A1 2 [7]
iib (15 × 0.22 =) 3.3 B1
15×0.22×(1–0.22) or ‘3.3’×(1–0.22) M1 Allow M1 for 15 × 0.22 × 0.88
= 2.57 (3 sf) A1 337
Total 8
5i 1 1 or 2 1 or 1 or 2 B1 or 1 out of 6 or 2 out of 12 (Q4, June 2010)
2 3 4 3 4 12
C2
or 24!! 2
(= 16 AG)

1
4
2
3
or 2× 14 1
3
or 12 1
3
or 2
4
1
3 B1 or 2
12
or 1
6
or 1
3!
or 4
1 or 2!
4! 2
C2
 physicsandmathstutor.com
4732 Mark Scheme PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com
June 2010

8
22
8ia (ia) Geo(0.3) stated or implied M1 by 0.7n × 0.3
0.73 × 0.3 M1
= 0.103 (3 sf) A1 3
b 0.73 or 0.343 M1 0.73 must be alone, ie not 0.73 × 0.3 or similar
1 – 0.73 M1 allow 1 – 0.74 or 0.7599 or 0.76 for M1 only

or 0.3 + 0.7×0.3 + 0.72×0.3: M1M1

1 term wrong or omitted or extra M1
or 1 – (0.3 + 0.7×0.3 + 0.72×0.3) or 0.343: M1
= 0.657 A1 3
iia State or imply one viewer in 1st four M1 or B(4, 0.3) stated, or 4C1 used, or YNNNY
4
C1 × 0.73 × 0.3 (= 0.412) M1
× 0.3 M1 dep 1st M1
= 0.123 (3 sf) A1 4
b 0.75 + 5C1 × 0.74 × 0.3 M1 or 1– (0.32 + 2×0.32×0.7 + 3×0.32×0.72 + 4×0.32×0.7)
= 0.528 (3 sf) A1 2
Not ISW, eg 1 – 0.528: M1A0
Total 12
physicsandmathstutor.com
4732 Mark Scheme Total 72 marks
January 2011 (Q8, June 2010)
iv 37 (± 3) B2 2 B1 for 163 (± 3) Not necessarily integer.
B1 for 78-80 mks for min grade A on p2
SC: ans 105 – 110: B1 (from p1 10 mks hier instead of lower)
v 37.5 B1 cao NOT eg 37.51
28.2 B1 2 or sd the same Ignore all working
Total 12
2
23 SC:Consistent use of incorrect (1 – 0.2) score M-marks only
SC:Consistent 0.8 insted of 0.2, no A-marks: max M0M2M2M2
“Consistent” means in every part attempted
2i 0.82×0.2 M1
i 16
= 125 or 0.128 A1 2
ii 0.82×0.2 + 0.83×0.2 + 0.84×0.2 M2 1 term omitted or wrong or extra: M1 Using P(X<5) & P(X<2); three methods:

= 976
or 0.312 (3 sfs) A1 3 1 – 0.85 – (1–0.82) or 0.672 – 0.36: M2
3125
Allow M1 for 1 – 0.85 – (1–0.83) or 0.672 – 0.488
or 1 – 0.84 – (1–0.82) or 0.5904 – 0.36

0.82 – 0.85: M2 Allow M1 for 0.83 – 0.85 or 0.82 – 0.84

0.2+0.8×0.2+0.82×0.2+0.83×0.2+0.84×0.2 – (0.2+0.8×0.2): M2
One term omitted or wrong or extra: M1
But NB If include 0.8-1×0.2 in both P(X<5) & P(X<2), get
correct ans but M1M0A0

M0 for eg 1 – 0.85 – 0.82 or 0.672 – 0.64

4
iii 0.8 M2 1-(0.2 + 0.8×0.2 + 0.8 ×0.2 + 0.8 ×0.2)
2 3
1 – (0.2 + 0.8×0.2 + 0.82×0.2 + 0.83×0.2) M2
1 term omitted or wrong or extra: M1
1 – 0.84 or 0.590 M1
3
or 0.8 or 0.512 or 0.85 or 0.328: M1
physicsandmathstutor.com 0.2×0.84 M0 1 – 0.8n (n ≠ 4) M0
256
4732 = 625
or 0.4096 or 0.410 (3 sfs) Mark Scheme January 2011
A1 3 Allow 0.41
iv 0.2 × 0.8 × 0.2 M1 or 0.2 × 0.8 × 0.8 × 0.2
0
or 0.032 NOT n × 0.22 × 0.8 except n = 2
×2 M1 or 0.2 × 0.8 × 0.2 + 0.8 × 0.2 × 0.2 Fully correct method
except allow M0M1 for (0.2+0.8×0.2) × 2, must see method

= 0.064 or 8/125 A1 3 Attempt 0,3 and/or 3,0, as well as 2,1and/or 1,2; max M1M0A0

Careful: 0.2×0.8×0.2+0.2×0.8-1×0.128 = 0.064 M1M0A0

2 Careful: 0.8×0.8×0.2 ÷ 2 = 0.064: (ie P(X = 3) ÷ 2) M0M0A0
Total 11
3i 7351.12- 86.6 943.8 M1 1st M1 for correct subst in any correct S formula
2nd M1 for all correct subst’n in any correct r(Q2, Jan 2011)
12 540.03
or M1 formula
2 2 33.80 9433
(658.76- 86.6 )(83663 943.8 )
12 12
= 0.9564… or 0.956 or 0.96 A1 3 Must see at least 2 sfs 0.96 or correct better, no working: M1M1A1

eg 0.958 → 0.96 with correct working M1M1A0

without working: M0M0A0
ii Strong (or high or good or close etc) Allow Almost complete relationship Must state or imply “strong” or “good” or equiv & in context
relationship (or corr’n or link) between or Very positive corr’n but NOT Strong agreement between etc
amount spent on advert & profit B1 1 6
or Very reliable relationship
or Near perfect relationship NOT High spend on ads produces high profits
between spend on advert & profit NOT The more spent on adverts, the higher the profit
NOT Positive corr’n between spend on ads & profits
oe, in context NOT There is a relationship between spend on ads & profit
NOT There is a great relationship between etc
NOT ans involving “proportion(al)”
 PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com
physicsandmathstutor.com
4732 Mark Scheme January 2011

524 Consistent use of 1 or MR of 30% (eg 0.2): (“Consistent” as in Qu 2)

3
(i) B1B0B1B1
(iia) B0
(iib) 0.7901–0.4609 or 5C2( 2 )3( 1 )2 M1; = 0.329 (3 sf) A1
3 3
7
(iii) p = “0.3292” M1; C3(1 – “0.3292”)4(“0.3292”)3 M1; = 0.253 (3 sf) A1
ie max 8/10
5ii Binomial or B B1 Allow mis-spellings but NOT “Biometric”
(5, 0.3) B1 Condone B~(5, 0.3) or B(0.3, 5): B1B1
but B(X = 0.3, n = 5): B1B0

Prob of gift same for all pkts B1 Prob of gift is constant or fixed or NOT: prob of success const; NOT prob stays same each go
consistent or same oe

Whether pkt contains gift is indep of Obtaining a gift is indep One box doesn’t affect another. Pkts indep. Gifts indep
other pkts B1 4 Each time receive a gift is indep She buys packets separately
Prob of a gift is indep
Context needed for 3rd & 4th B-mks
Prob of gift indep of one another & const: B1B1

NOT: Each week is indep

NOT: Number of gifts received is indep
NOT: Events indep

physicsandmathstutor.com If Geo(0.3) stated, can score max B0B0B1B1

If Geo(5, 0.3) stated, can score max B0B1B1B1
iia4732 0.8369 B1 1 or 0.837 Mark Scheme June 2011
5 3 2
2b 0.8369
Attempt – 0.5282
ranks or C2(0.7) (0.3) M1 M1 Ignore labels of rows or columns
=40.3087
1 2 3 oror0.309
1 2(33sf)
4 or 1 2 3 4 oe A1 2
iii p2 =1 “0.3087”
3 4 1 3 4 2 1 4 2 3 M1 A1 (iib) No
usedranks
in a calc’n
seen, deg “0.3087”
= (0), × 3±2, or or B(7, “0.3087”) stated
±1, ±1,
d2 = (0), 1, 1, 4 any order:
or 1 M1A1
– “0.3087”
Noused Σd2 =of6:“0.3087”
instead
wking, M1A1M1
7 2 – “0.3087”)4(“0.3087”)3
Σd
C3(1attempted (or 6) M1 M1 NOT (Σd)2 No wking, Σd2 = eg 14: M0A0M0, but can gain 3rd M1
= 0.235 (3
2 sf) A1 3
1 6 2d
4( 4 1) M1 n = 35 or 15: No
maxwking,
M1M0A0 ans 52 : Full mks
Total 2 10
= 5 oe A1 5 Allow both sets of ranks reversed
(Q5, Jan 2011)
NB incorrect method:
2341
6 2 1 3 4 OR d = (0), ±2, ±1, ±3 any order
OR d2 = (0), 4, 1, 9 any order
(leading to Σd2 = 14 and rs = – 52 ):
M0A0M1M1A0
Total 5
3ia (ia) (1 – 0.5565) or 12×0.8511×(1–0.85) +0.8512 M1
25 or 1 – ((1-0.85) …. C10×0.85 (1-0.85) )
12 12 10 2
or 1 – 0.557
ie 1 – (all 11 correct binomial terms)
NB 1 – 0.4435 (oe): M0A0
= 0.4435 or 0.443 or 0.444 (3 sf) A1 2
b 0.5565 – 0.2642 or 12C10(1 –0.85)2(0.85)10 M1 or 0.557 – 0.264
= 0.2923 or 0.2924 or 0.292 (3 sf) A1 2
c 12 × 0.85 × (1–0.85) M1
= 1.53 oe A1 2
ii ( 34 ) 2 AND 3 × 14 seen (possibly × 2) M1 eg ( 34 ) 2 + 34 × 14 or 2× ( 34 ) 2 + 2× 34 × 14 9 and 3 or 9 and 3
or 16 eg in table or list
4 16 16 8
or 0.5625 + 0.1875 or 0.5625 + 0.375

( 34 ) 2 × 2 × 34 × 14 oe or 27 or 0.211 M1 or eg 0.5625 × 0.375 Allow even if further incorrect wking

128
2 × ( 34 ) 2 × 2 × 34 × 14 oe M1 Fully correct method

27 Ans 0.211: check wking but probably gets

= or 0.422 (3 sfs) A1 4
64 M1M1M0A0

Use of 0.85 instead of 1 : MR max M1M1M1A0

4
Total 10

2 (Q3, June 2011)

 Must give reasons [3] “Reliable because r near –1”
If (ii) |r| < 0.7: B1B0B0
poor corr’n oe B1f PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com
25 unreliable B1f “Small sample so unreliable”
Allow “accurate” instead of “reliable” 100 unreliable B1f B0B0B0
Ignore all else
3
26 (i) (1 – 0.12)13 or 13×(1 – 0.12)12×0.12 M1 Either seen
(1 – 0.12)13 + 13×(1 – 0.12)12×0.12 M1 Fully correct method 1 – correct terms: M1M0A0
= 0.526 (3 sf) A1[3]
13
3 (ii) C2×0.122×(1 – 0.12)11 M1 or 0.275(…) Allow if × or + something
2 × “0.275275” × (1 – “0.275275”) M1 Correct method except allow omit “2 ×” NB unlike 2nd M1 in (i) which is for
= 0.399 (3 sf) A1 fully correct method
[3]
NB 2 × 0.12 × 0.88: M0M0A0

(Q3, Jan 2012)

physicsandmathstutor.com
7
4732 Mark Scheme January 2012

Question Answer Marks Guidance

6
27 (i) V B1 X because mode = 1 oe For answer V the first B1 is indep, but not
or Highest prob is P(1) oe B2 for other answers, ie:
because [probs or values or geometric or V with no reason or incorrect reason
etc] decreasing or halving scores B1B0,
or Highest prob is 1st Z because P(0) = 0 or variable can’t be 0 but Z or X or any other letter with no
Allow if word “decreasing” or “halving” or B1 oe Allow “Geo distr’n cannot be zero” oe reason or incorrect reason scores B0B0.
“sloping downwards” or any equivalent B2
seen
In all cases, once mark(s) have been
NOT “Positive skew” “None of them”: Ignore any reason given. scored, ignore all other comments.
[2] B2
6 (ii) Y. Peaks at 2 If values of some probs listed:
Y. Like normal, peak at 2
Y. Highest prob is middle one (or is at 2) 2 to 4 values: B1
Y. P(X = 2) is max Y: B1
Y. Increase to 2 then decr
Y. 1 4 6 4 1 alone or with 0.54 × For 3rd B1 must link list with Y diag, eg
Y. 0.0625, 0.25, 0.375, 0.25, 0.0625 “symmetrical” or “peak in middle” or
Y. P(1) = P(3) and P(2) is greater/different “peak at 2” or “1st = last” or “2nd = 4th”
“same shape as Y diag”. etc etc
or equiv of any of the above B1B1B1 Ignore all else
If none of the above applies:

Any implication that values not all equal

4
eg: Not uniform C0, 4C1, 4C2, etc
or values increase (then decrease)
or there is a peak B1 indep

Symmetrical or mirror image oe

or 4C 0 = 4C4 or 2nd = 4th or similar
or mean = 2, or E(X) = 2, or 2 is hi’est prob,
or peak at 2, B1 indep
or peak is middle value
B1 indep
Y [3]
(Q6, Jan 2012)
10
physicsandmathstutor.com
4732 Mark Scheme January 2012

Question Answer Marks Guidance

28
7 (i) Geo(0.6) or G(0.6) or Geo with p = 0.6 B1B1 Allow Geo(60%) B1B1 Bin(…, 0.6) B0B1. Can still score
comment marks
P(woman) const or chance of woman const or %age of women is constant In context
Each voter has same prob B1

Whether one voter is a woman is indep of Allow: “voter(s) independent”, Allow “vote indep”
whether any other is a woman B1 “Men & women are independent”
“P(woman) is indep” In context
“Each woman is indep” (EACH comment must be in context)
[4]
Ignore all else
7 (ii) 0.4 × 0.6
3
M1 ft their Geo(p) from (i) Allow 0.33 × 0.6 (but no other q3 × 0.6)
= 24/625 or 0.0384 A1f ft their Geo(p) from (i) eg if p = 0.4, ans 0.0864 M1A1f
[2]
7 (iii) 0.43 alone, or (0.44 +0.43×0.6) or (0.44 + M1 1–(0.6 + 0.4×0.6 + 0.42×0.6) Allow M1 for 0.44 alone (= 0.0256)
(ii)) (allow extra term M0 for 0.4r × 0.6 and for 1 – 0.43
0.43×0.6)
ft their Geo(p) from (i)

= 8/125 or 0.064 A1f ft their Geo(p) from (i) eg if p = 0.4, ans 0.216 M1A1f
[2]
8 (i) Binomial stated M1 or implied by C×0.5r or use of table or 0.57×0.5 + 0.58 or 0.58 + 0.58
(Q7, Jan 2012)
1 – 0.9648 M1 or 8C7 × 0.57×0.5 + 0.58 fully correct 1– (0.58+8×0.58+8C20.58…) all correct
method
= 0.0352 (3 sfs) or 9/256 A1
[3]
 (ii)) (allow extra term M0 for 0.4r × 0.6 and for 1 – 0.43
0.43×0.6)
ft their Geo(p) from (i) PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com
= 8/125 or 0.064 A1f ft their Geo(p) from (i) eg if p = 0.4, ans 0.216 M1A1f
[2]
8
29 (i) Binomial stated M1 or implied by C×0.5r or use of table or 0.57×0.5 + 0.58 or 0.58 + 0.58

1 – 0.9648 M1 or 8C7 × 0.57×0.5 + 0.58 fully correct 1– (0.58+8×0.58+8C20.58…) all correct

method
= 0.0352 (3 sfs) or 9/256 A1
physicsandmathstutor.com
[3]
84732(ii) (a) 22
C11 × 0.511 × 0.511 M1Mark Fully
Scheme
correct method. Not ISW January
eg 0.1682 or 2 × 0.168 or 1–0.168: M0A02012
= 0.168 (3 sfs) A1
Question Answer Marks
[2] Guidance
8 (ii) (b) 1 – “0.168” M1 or 0.522(22C12 + 22C13 + 22C14 + … + 22 + 1) or 1 – (22C12 + 22C13 + 22C14 + … + 22 + 1)
All 11 correct terms seen, or correct ans: M2 1 – all 12 correct terms M2

or P(X = 12, 13, … 21, 22) stated or implied

with > 2 terms shown or one extra term M1 or similar marks for P(X = 10, 9, 8…0)
1
/2(1 – “0.168”) M1
= 0.416 (3 sfs) physicsandmathstutor.com
A1 11
4732 Mark Scheme June 2012
[3]
9 (i) (a) 9P4 or 9!/5! or 9C4 × 4! M1 alone oe eg 9C1 × 8C1 × 7C1 × 6C1 or 9×8×7×6
Question = 3024 Answer A1 Marks Guidance (Q8, Jan 2012)
7 (ii) (b) 5C3 or 5! or 5C5 seen or 10 seen in [2]
num M1 5 4 oe seen Allow 5C2 seen BOD
7 6
9 (i) (b) 8P3 or 83×!2!7 × 6 oe or 8C3 × 3! M1 Allow × …. or ÷ …..
5 84 5 4 52 1 )
× 5 5(or
C 3 5C1 )
oe M1 M1 × 5 7or 6C3 ×( 75 (or
Correct 6 C7 1) 6 or (9P4 or “3024”) × 5/9 M2
5C 5C 1680
3
= 1680 5 A1 Not ISW, eg /3024 : M1M1A0
10
or 0.909 (3 sf) A1
11
[3] [3]
30
8 (i) 1 – 0.1754 alone SC:M1 Allow
consistent use 1– 0.2855
of with or 0.7145inor
replacement (i)0.715 alone
= 0.825 (3 sfs) (or if
A1only (a) or (b) attempted)
(ia) [2] M0A0
8 (ii) (a) 4
C2 × 0.72 × 0.32 (ib)M1999 × 5All
or 4995
correct M1
M0A0
= 1323 or 0.265 (3 sf) A1
5000
[2]
8 (ii) (b) 4,4,2 & 4,3,3 only, seen or implied B1 Both needed
P(Y = 4) = 0.74 2401 or 0.2401)
(or 10000
M1
P(Y = 3) = 4 × 0.3 × 0.73 (or 1029
2500
or 0.4116) M1
if “3×” omitted twice or “3!×”
P(4,3,3) = 3 × “0.2401” × “0.4116”2 (or 0.122 ) M1 ie 3 × their P(4) × (their P(3) )2 used twice allow M1M0
P(4,4,2) = 3 × 0.2401”2 × “0.265” (or 0.0458) M1 ie 3 × (their P(4) )2 × their P(2) ft (ii)(a) eg ans 0.0560, 0.0559,0.336,
For M mks ignore extra combs eg P(4,4,3) probably B1M1M1M1M0A0
but must see method
P(Tot = 10) = 0.168 (3 sfs) A1
If B(30, 0.6) clearly being used:
12 Any 5 combs
30
adding to 10 seen
22 8
B1
P(8) = C8×0.4 ×0.6 or 0.0002
P(9) = 30C9×0.421×0.69 or 0.0007
P(10) = 30C10×0.420×0.610 or 0.0020
all three correct M2
[6] or two correct M1
No more marks

(Q8, June 2012)

12
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4732 Mark Scheme June 2012

Question Answer Marks Guidance

9
31 (i) (a) Geo stated or implied M1 eg by 0.9p × 0.1 or 0.1p × 0.9 alone, p>1
0.95 × 0.1 alone M1 all correct
= 0.059(0…) (2 sfs) A1
[3]

9 (i) (b) 0.95 or 0.59… (NB cf ans to (i)(a)!! ) M1 0.1 + 0.9×0.1 + . . . 0.94×0.1 : M2
1 – 0.95 M1 1 term wrong or omit or extra
or 1 – (all terms correct): M1 M0M0A0 for 0.9p × 0.1
or 1 – 0.96 : M1
= 0.4095 or 0.410 (3 sfs) A1
[3]

9 (ii) (a) 0.05 + 0.952× 0.05 M1 All correct NB!! 2 × 0.95 × 0.05 = 0.095
= 761 or 0.0951 (3 sfs) A1 M0A0
8000 [2]

9 (ii) (b) 0.05, 0.952× 0.05, … or 1 , 361 , … oe M1 > 2 terms. Not nec’y added or r = 0.952 stated or implied
20 8000
May be implied by next line

0.05 0.05 or 0.05 or 0.05 or 1 oe

or oe M1
1 0.952 1 0.9025 1 (1 0.5) 2 2 0.05 0.05 2 1.95
NB 0.05 = 0.0513 M0A0
20 1 0.5 0.05
= 39
or 0.513 (3 sfs) A1
[3]

(Q9,
Note: “(3 sfs)” means “answer which rounds to ... to 3 sfs”. If correct ans seen to > 3sfs, ISW for later rounding. Penalise over-rounding onlyJune
once 2012)
in paper.

physicsandmathstutor.com
4732 Mark Scheme January 2013

Question Answer Marks Guidance

32
5 If incorrect p used consistently in all parts of qu 5, no mks in (i)(a) & (b) but can score M–marks in (ii) and (iii).
5 (i) (a) 1.25 oe B1
[1] 13
5 (i) (b) 0.8965 – 0.6328 M1 5
C2( 3 )3( 1 )2 4 4
= 0.264 (3 sf) A1 = 135
512
or 0.264 (3 sf) Answer which rounds to 0.264
[2]
5 (ii) M1 243 ) 2 or ( 3 )10 oe (= 59049 )
(( 34 )5)2 or ( 1024 B(10. 0.25) seen or implied M1
4 1048576
Answer which rounds to 0.244 M1 243 × 405 or 5( 3 )9( 1 )
( 34 )5×5( 34 )4( 14 ) or 1024 Table or formula with n = 10 used M1
1024 4 4
(= 98415 )
1048576 P(X < 1) from table
or ( 34 )10 + 10( 34 )9 ×( 14 ) M1
M1 2×(attempt P(1, 0) alone),
(NOT 2×(P(1,0) + P(0,0))
0.244 (3 sf) A1
If P(sum < 2), all three M-mks are available,
but for 3rd M1, must be 2×(P(1,0)+P(2,0)) P(X < 2) = 0.526 from table n = 10
only M1M1M1A0

Ans 0.150 probably M1M1M0A0 but check SC P(X = 2) answer 0.282: B1

A1
working
Ans 0.188 probably M0M1M1A0 but check
working
[4]
5 (iii) Use of 0.2637 or 0.264 M1 or their (i)(b) SC allow 10C3×(1–‘0.282’)7ב0.282’3
10
C3 × (1 – ‘0.2637’)7 × ‘0.2637’3 M1 ft (i)(b) allow ft their (ii) for this M1 only M0M1
(0.282 comes from P(3 totals = 2))
= 0.258 (3 sf) A1 Correct ans, no working: M1M1A1
[3]

(Q5, Jan 2013)

9
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PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com
4732 Mark Scheme January 2013

Question Answer Marks Guidance

33 (i) (a)
8 0.94 × 0.1 M1
6561 or 0.0656 (3sf)
= 100000 A1
[2]
8 (i) (b) 0.95 M1 Allow 0.94 or 1–0.95 :M1 1 – (0.1+0.9×0.1+0.92×0.1 +
but 1–0.9n (n ≠ 5) or 0.1×0.9n :M0 …0.94×0.1)
59049 or 0.59 (2 sf)
= 100000 A1 Allow without “1 –” OR omit last
term
[2] NB 0.95×0.1 = 0.0590 M0A0
8 (i) (c) 0.1×0.1 or [0.1×0.1×0.9 +0.1×0.1×0.1] oe M1 3×0.12×0.9+0.13 no incorrect multiples
+ 0.1×0.9×0.1 oe M1 M1M1 two correct terms, no incorrect multiples M2 for 1st term; M1 for 2nd

+ 0.9×0.1×0.1 oe M1 M1 all correct

This method only scores using “1 – ”:
= 0.028 A1 Ans 0.027 probably M0M1M1A0 but check 0.93; 3×0.92×0.1 no incorrect multiples
working M1; M1
1 – one or both terms with no further
SC if no M-mks scored: wking: M1(dep M1)
SSF, SSS, FSS, SFS eg 1 – 0.93 alone M1M0M1
[4] or SS, FSS, SFS seen or implied: B1
8 (ii) (a) 0.9× 0.8 × 0.1 M1 alone or allow × 0.8 (ie girls in wrong order) NOT 0.9×0.8×0.1×0.2= 0.0144: M0A0
9 or 0.072
= 125 A1 (= 0.0576) NOT 0.9×0.8×0.2= 0.144: M0A0
[2]
8 (ii) (b) 0.99 or 10 × 0.89 or 10 ×0.1 (or ×0.2, not M1 allow 0.99 or 10 × 0.89 or 10 ×0.1 × 18,19,20C1 If ans = 0.00360 or 0.0150 see SC
×0.1×0.2) below
(0.9 × 0.8)9 × 0.1 oe M1 fully correct
= 5.2×10-3 or 0.0052 (2 sf) A1

SC Consistent use of 0.8 for both girls: (ii)(a) 0.128 (ii)(b) 0.00360
or 0.9 for both girls: (ii)(a) 0.081 (ii)(b) 0.0150 If both these ans
[3] seen, allow (a) 0 (b) B1
(Q8, Jan 2013)

12