Table Of Contents

New Spec
Paper 2 (AS) ........................................... Page 1
Paper 3 (A2) ........................................... Page 9
Old Spec
Statistics 1 ............................................... Page 19
Statistics 2 .............................................. Page 51
 Qu Scheme Mark AO
1. 3 1
Require R = 3 and G = 4 so probability is  M1 2.1
(a)(i) 4 3
1
= or 0.25 A1 1.1b
4

(ii) 1 2 1
[R must be 2 and G = 1so  ]= A1 1.1b
4 3 6
(3)
(b) P(X = 50) = 0.25 must mean R = 3 and G = 4 M1 3.1a
so 3m + 4n = 50 A1 1.1b
P(X = 20) = 16  R = 2, G = 1 so 2m + n = 20 A1 2.1
Solving: 3m + 4(20 – 2m) = 50 (o.e.) M1 1.1b
m = 6 and n = 8 A1 3.2a
(5)
(8 marks)
Notes
(a)(i) 3 1 1 2
M1 for sight of or  as a single product BUT allow e.g. 34  13 + 13  34 to score M1
4 3 4 3
However if the products are later added e.g. 34  13 + 14  32 it is M0
May be implied by one correct answer to (i) or (ii)
1
A1 for or 0.25 or exact equivalent (allow 25%)
4
(ii) 1
A1 for or exact equivalent
6

(b) For the 1st 4 marks condone incorrect labelling e.g. R for m or G for n if intention is clear
1st M1 for identifying either set of cases (R = 2, G = 1, X = 20) or (R = 3, G = 4, X = 50)
Allow 1st M1 for P(X = 20) = 14  32 or P(X = 50) = 34  13 NOT just P(X = 20) = 16 etc
m + 32 n = 20 or 43 m + 13 n = 50 and might score 2nd M1 (answer is m = 64, n = 6)
or 1
4

or m + 32 n = 16 or 43 m + 13 n = 14 and might score 2nd M1 (answer is m = 154 , n = 203 )

1
4

or 2m + n = 16 or 3m + 4n = 14 and might score 2nd M1 (answer is m = 121 , n = 0)

or 2m + n = 50 and 3m + 4n = 20 and might score 2nd M1 (answer is m = 36, n = – 22)
1st A1 for one correct equation
2nd A1 for both correct equations and no incorrect equations, unless they attempt to solve the
correct 2 equations only
nd
2 M1 for attempt to solve their two linear equations in m and n (reduce to an equation in one
variable, condone one sign error). May be implied by m = 6 and n = 8.
Calc If they use one of the 4 sets of equations for 1st M1 and use a calculator to write down
the answer, we will allow this mark for sight of the correct answers to those equations
as given above.

3rd A1 m = 6 and n = 8 only (no incorrect labelling here)

Correct answer by trial can score 5/5 if no incorrect working seen.

1
Qu Scheme Marks AO
2 (a) [ p = 1 – ( 0.2 + 0.2 + 0.1 + 0.2)] = 0.3 B1 1.1b
(1)

(b) A and C are mutually exclusive. [ NOT P(A) and P(C) ] B1 1.2
(1)

(2 marks)
Notes
(a) B1 for

(b) B1 for A and C [NB A  C or A  C =  is B0 ]

If more than one case given they must all be correct e.g. A  B and C

2
Qu Scheme Marks AO
3 Must end up with 3 of each colour or 4 of each colour M1 3.1b

n = 2 requires 1st red and 2nd green or red from A and green from B M1 2.2a
4 1 4 2 2
P(1st red and 2nd green ) =  = or p= A1 1.1b
9 10 90 45 45

n = 5 requires 1st green and 2nd yellow or green from A and yellow from B M1 2.2a
5 3 15 1 1
P(1st green and 2nd yellow ) =  = or p= A1 1.1b
12 10 120 8 8
(5)

(5 marks)
Notes
st
1 M1 for an overall strategy realising there are 2 options.
Award when evidence of both cases (3 of each colour or 4 of each colour) seen.

2nd M1 for n = 2 and attempt at 1st red and 2nd green

4 1
May be implied by e.g. 
9 9
2
1st A1 for p = or exact equivalent
45
3rd M1 for n = 5 and attempt at 1st green and 2nd yellow
5 3
May be implied by e.g. 
12 9
1
2nd A1 for p = or exact equivalent
8
NB 61
If both correct values of p are found and then added ( get ) , deduct final A1 only (i.e. 4/5)
360

3
Question Scheme Marks AOs
4 Overall method M1 2.1
a + b = 2c + 0.5 oe or a + b = 2 (1 − a − b ) B1 2.2a
a + b + c = 0.75 oe B1 1.1b
 1
3c = 0.25 c = 0.0833... or 12  M1 1.1b
 
1
P(scoring 2,4 or 4,2 or 3,3) = 2  " " 0.15 + 0.12 M1 3.1b
12
= 0.035 oe A1cso 1.1b
(6)
(6 marks)
Notes
A fully correct method with all the required steps. For gaining 2 correct equations with at
4 M1: least one correct(allow if unsimplified). Attempting to solve to find a value of c followed by
correct method to find the probability
B1: Forming a correct equation from the information given in the question
B1: A correct equation using the sum of the probabilities equals 1
1
M1: Correct method for solving 2 equations to find c Implied by c =
12
Recognising the ways to get a total of 6. Condone missing arrangments or repeats. Do not
ignore extras written unless ignored in the calculation. May be implied by
M1: 1
m  " " 0.15 + n  0.12 where m and n are positive integers
12
7
A1cso: Cao 0.035, oe
200

4
 Question Scheme Marks AOs

5 x=0 B1 2.2a

P( A)  0.1  z  y P(C )  0.39  z[  x ] P(A and C )  z M1 2.1

P(A and C )  P( A)  P(C )  z  (0.1  z  y )  (0.39  z[  x]) M1 1.1b

  p  1
M1 1.1b
0.06  0.3  0.39  0.1  z  y[ x ]  1  [z  y[ x ]  0.15]
Solving (simultaneously) leading to z  0.13 y  0.02 A1 1.1b
(5 marks)
Notes
B1: for x = 0, may be seen on Venn diagram
M1: Identifying the probabilities required for independence and at least 2 correct
These must be labelled
If there are no labels, then this may be implied by z = (0.1 + z + y)(0.39 + z [+x]),
allow one numerical slip

Allow e.g.
P( A)  0.39  0.30  0.06[ x] P(C )  0.39  z[ x] P(A and C )  0.39
[Not on spec. but you may see use of conditional probabilities]
M1: Use of independence equation with their labelled probabilities in terms
y, z [and x]
All their probabilities must be substituted into a correct formula
Sight of a correct equation e.g. z = (0.1 + z + y)(0.39 + z [+x]) scores M1M1
M1: Using Σp = 1
Implied by [x +] y + z = 0.15
or their x + y + z = 0.15 where x, y, and z are all probabilities
or e.g. P(A) = 0.25
A1: both y  0.02 and z  0.13

5
 Qu Scheme Marks AO
6 (a) [Let p = P(F | C)]
Tree diagram or some other method to find an equation for p M1 2.1
0.1 0.09  0.3  0.03  0.6  p  0.06 A1 1.1b
p = 0.07 i.e. 7% A1 1.1b
(3)
(b) e.g. P(B and F) = 0.3  0.03 = 0.009 but
P( B)  P( F )  0.3  0.06 = 0.018 B1 2.4
These are not equal so not independent
(1)
(4 marks)
Notes
(a) M1 for selecting a suitable method to find the missing probability
e.g. sight of tree diagram with 0.1, 0.3, 0.6 and 0.09, 0.03, p suitably
placed
e.g. sight of VD with 0.009 for A  F and B  F and 0.6p suitably
placed
or attempt an equation with at least one correct numerical and
one “p” product (not necessarily correct) on LHS
or for sight of 0.06 – (0.009 + 0.009) (o.e. e.g. 6 – 1.8 = 4.2%)
1st A1 for a correct equation for p (May be implied by a correct answer)
0.06  (0.009  0.009)
or for the expression (o.e.)
0.6
2nd A1 for 7% ( accept 0.07)
Correct Ans: Provided there is no incorrect working seen award 3/3
e.g. may just see tree diagram with 0.07 for p (probably from trial and improv’)

(b) B1 for a suitable explanation…may talk about 2nd branches on tree diagram
and point out that 0.03  0.06 but need some supporting
calculation/words
Can condone incorrect use of set notation (it is not on AS spec) provided
the rest of the calculations and words are correct.

6
 Question Scheme Marks AOs

7(a) S and A since there is no intersection between A and S or the

B1 1.2
probability of S and A happening is zero
(1)

(b) (0.1 + p)´ 0.25 = 0.1 [p = 0.3] M1 3.1b

q = 0.15 or 1 - q = 0.85 M1 1.1b
r = 1 − " p "− " q "− 0.25 M1dd 3.1b

= 0.3 A1 1.1b

(4)

(c) Independent since 0.25 "0.2" = 0.05 B1 2.2a

(1)
The teacher’s belief would appear not to be justified as D and S are
(d) B1ft 2.4
independent
(1)

(7 marks)

Notes:

(a) B1: For S and A and a sensible reason

(b) M1: For forming a correct equation in terms of p using the information given.
M1: Writing or using q = 0.15 or 1 - q = 0.85
M1dd: dependent on both previous M marks being awarded. For using their values for p and q
to form a correct equation to enable them to find r
A1: cao
(c) B1: Yes and a suitable reason to support their answer bringing together the two pieces of
information to draw the correct conclusion
(d) B1: A correct comment following their answer to part (c) with reference to the teachers belief.

7
 Question Scheme Marks AOs

8(a) p = [1 – 0.75 – 0.05 =] 0.20 B1 1.1b

(1)
(b) q = 0.15 B1ft 1.1b
P(A) = 0.35 P(T) = 0.6 P(A and T) = 0.20
M1 2.1
P(A) P(T) = 0.21
Since 0.20 0.21 therefore A and T are not independent A1 2.4
(3)

(c) P(not [A or C]) = 0.45 B1 1.1b

(1)
(5 marks)
Notes:
(a)
B1: cao for p = 0.20
(b)
B1: Ft for use of their p and P(A or T) to find q i.e. 0.75 – “p” – 0.40 or q = 0.15
M1: For the statement of all probabilities required for a suitable test and sight of
any appropriate calculations required
(c)
A1: All probabilities correct, correct comparison and suitable comment
B1: cao for 0.45

8
 Question Scheme Marks AOs
9(a) 365 1
or or 0.2 oe B1 1.1b
1825 5
(1)
(b) 170 34
or or awrt 0.093 B1 1.1b
1825 365
(1)
(c) 40] or 90 × 0.6 + 80 × 0.95[=
90 × 0.4 + 80 × 0.05[= 130] or
M1 3.1b
740 × 0.65[= 481] or 740 × 0.35[=
259]

H
123 R
40 412
481 B1 1.1b
247 259 B1 1.1b
A1 1.1b
133
F 130

(4)
(d) 380  76 
P ( R′ ∩ F ) = = = 0.208... oe awrt 0.208 B1 1.1b
1825  365 
(1)
(e) 133 + "130"  "263"
 =  awrt 0.144 B1ft 1.1b
1825  1825
(1)
(f) 247 + "481"
M1 3.4
247 + "481"+ 123 + "40"
728
= awrt 0.817 A1 1.1b
891
(2)
Notes: (10 marks)
Look out for answers given in the question. If you see answers in the question and
in the answer space those in the answer space take precedence.
(a) B1 Allow equivalent
(b) B1 Allow equivalent
Correct method to find one of the values 40 or 130 or 481or 259
(c) M1
Implied by 40, 481, 259 or130 seen in correct place on diagram
B1 One of the highlighted correct
B1 A second value highlighted correct or their ("259"+ " 481") = 740 or
their ("40"+ " 481") =
521 or their ("40"+ "130") =
170
A1 Fully correct
(d) B1 380/1825oe or awrt 0.208
(e) B1ft Correct answer or
Ft their 130 ( > 0) do not allow if blank
Allow ft correct to 3 sf.
For a single fraction with the numerator < denominator and n is an integer we will
(f) M1
award for n/ 891 or n/(sum of their 4 values in H, each > 0) or awrt 0.817
A1 728/891 oe or awrt 0.817

9
 Qu 10 Scheme Marks AO
(a) 0.08 + 0.09 + 0.36 = 0.53 B1 1.1b
(1)
 P ( G ∩ E ∩ S ) = 0 ⇒  p = 0
(b)(i) B1 1.1b
(ii) [P(G) = 0.25 ⇒ ] 0.08 + 0.05 + q + " p " =0.25 M1 1.1b
q = 0.12 A1 1.1b
(3)
(c)(i)  5  r + " p" 5
 P ( S | E ) = ⇒ = M1 3.1a
12  r + " p "+ 0.09 + 0.05 12 A1ft 1.1b
[12r = 5r + 5 × 0.14 ⇒] r = 0.10 A1 1.1b
(ii) [0.08 + 0.05 + "0.12"+ "0"+ 0.09 + "0.10"+ 0.36 + t =1 ⇒ ] t = 0.20 B1ft 1.1b
(4)
(d) P ( S ∩ E ′ ) = 0.36 + “q” [= 0.48] B1ft 1.1b
( )
P ( S ∩ E ′ )  ∩ G =
" q " [=0.12] and P(G) = 0.25 and
M1 2.1
P ( S ∩ E ′ ) × P(G=
) "0.48"× 14 or 0.12
( )
P ( S ∩ E ′ ) × P(G ) = 0.12 = P ( S ∩ E ′ )  ∩ G so are independent A1 2.2a
(3)
( 11 marks)
Notes
(a) B1 for 0.53 (or exact equivalent) [ Allow 53%]

(b)(i) B1 for p = 0 (may be placed in Venn diagram)

(ii) M1 for a linear equation for q (ft letter “p” or their value if 0  p  0.12 ) ⇒ by p + q = 0.12
A1 for q = 0.12 (may be placed in Venn diagram)

(c)(i) M1 for a ratio of probabilities (r on num and den) (on LHS) with num < den and num or den
correct ft. Allow ft of letter “p” or their p where 0  p < 0.86 but “+ 0” is not required.
1 A1ft for a correct ratio of probabilities (on LHS) allowing ft of their p where 0  p < 0.86
st

2nd A1 for r = 0.1(0) or exact equivalent (may be in Venn diagram) Ans only 3/3
(ii) B1ft for t = 0.2(0) (o.e.) or correct ft i.e. 0.42 – (p + q + r) where p, q, r and t are all probs

(d) B1ft for P ( S ∩ E ′ ) = 0.48 (with label) (ft letter “q” or their value if 0  q  0.12)
M1 for attempting all required probs (labelled) and using them in a correct test (allow ft of q)
A1 for all probs correct and a correct deduction (no ft deduction here)
SC No “P” If correct argument seen apart from P for probability for all 3 marks, award (B0M1A1)
If unsure about an attempt using conditional probabilities, please send to review.

10
 Qu 11 Scheme Marks AO
(a) A, C or D, B or D,C B1 1.2
(1)
(b) [p = 0.4 – 0.07 – 0.24 = ] 0.09 B1 1.1b
(1)
(c) A and B independent implies 1.1b
P( A) × 0.4 =
0.24 or ( q + 0.16 + 0.24 ) × 0.4 =
0.24 M1

so P(A) = 0.6 and q = 0.20 A1cso 1.1b

(2)
(d)(i) r r
P ( B′ | C ) = 0.64 gives = 0.64 or = 0.64 M1 3.1a
r+ p r + "0.09"
r = 0.64r + 0.64 “p” so 0.36r = 0.0576 so r = 0.16 A1 1.1b

(ii) Using sum of probabilities = 1 e.g. “0.6” + 0.07 + “0.25” + s =1 M1 1.1b

so s = 0.08 A1 1.1b
(4)

( 8 marks)
Notes
(a) B1 for one correct pair. If more than one pair they must all be correct.
Condone in a correct probability statement such as P ( A ∩ C ) = 0
or correct use of set notation e.g. A ∩ C =∅
BUT e.g. “P(A) and P(C) are mutually exclusive” alone is B0

(b) B1 for p = 0.09 (Maybe stated in Venn Diagram [VD])

[ If values in VD and text conflict, take text or a value used in a later part]

(c) M1 for a correct equation in one variable for P(A) or q using independence
or for seeing both P( A ∩ B) = P( A) × P( B) and 0.24 = 0.6 × 0.4
A1cso for q = 0.20 or exact equivalent (dep on correct use of independence)
Beware Use of P(A) = 1 – P(B) = 0.6 leading to q = 0.2 scores M0A0

(d)(i) 1st M1 for use of P ( B′ | C ) = 0.64 leading to a correct equation in r and possibly p.
Can ft their p provided 0 < p < 1
1st A1 for r = 0.16 or exact equivalent
(ii) 2nd M1 for use of total probability = 1 to form a linear equation in s. Allow p, q, r etc
Can follow through their values provided each of p, q, r are in [0, 1)
nd
2 A1 for s = 0.08 or exact equivalent

11
 Qu 12 Scheme Marks AO
(a) k k k k k 1
+ + = + + 1 or ( 60k + 30k + 20k + 15
= k + 12k ) 1 M1 1.1b
10 20 30 40 50 600
600
So k = (*) A1cso 1.1b
137
(2)
(b) (Cases are:) = =
D1 30, =
D2 50 and =
D1 50, =
D2 30 and =
D1 40, D2 40 M1 2.1
2
k k  k 
P ( D1 + D2 = 80 ) = × ×2 +   M1 3.4
50 30  40 
= 0.0375619… awrt 0.0376 A1 1.1b
(3)
(c) Angles are: a, a + d , a + 2d , a + 3d M1 3.1a
S4 = a + (a + d) + (a + 2d) + (a + 3d) = 360 M1 2.1
2a + 3d = 180 (o.e.) A1 2.2a
Smallest angle is a > 50 consider cases:
M1 3.1b
d = 10 so a = 75 or d = 20 so a = 60 [ d = 30 gives a = 45 no good]
3k 90
P(D = 10 or 20) = = A1 1.1b
20 137
(5)
( 10 marks)
Notes
(a) M1 for clear use of sum of probabilities = 1 (all terms seen)
A1 cso (*) M1 scored and no incorrect working seen.
Verify (Assume k = 137
600
) to score the final A1 they must have a final comment “∴ k =600
137 "

(b) 1st M1 for selecting at least 2 of the relevant cases (may be implied by their correct probs)
e.g. allow 30, 50 and 50,30 i.e. D1 and D2 labels not required
2nd M1 for using the model to obtain a correct expression for two different probabilities.
May use letter k or their value for k.
k k  k 
2
 k k  k  
2

Allow for × +   or 2 ×  × +   
50 30  40   50 30  40  

705
A1 for awrt 0.0376 (exact fraction is 18769 )

(c) 1st M1 for recognising the 4 angles and finding expressions in terms of d and their a
2nd M1 for using property of quad with these 4 angles (equation can be un-simplified)
Allow these two marks for use of a (possible) value of d
e.g. a + a + 10 + a + 20 + a + 30 = 360 (If at least 3 cases seen allow A1 for e.g. 4a = 300)
or allow M1M1 for a set of 4 angles with sum 360 and possible value of d (3 cases for A1)
e.g. (for d = 20) 60, 80, 100, 120
1st A1 for 2a + 3d = 180 condition (o.e.) [Must be in the form pa + qd = N]
3rd M1 for examining cases and getting d = 10 and d = 20 only
2nd A1 for 137 90
or exact equivalent
The correct answer and no obviously incorrect working will score 5/5
A final answer of awrt 0.657 (0.65693…) with no obviously incorrect working scores 4/5

12
 Question Scheme Marks AOs

13(a) 2
3
G B1
4
G 1.1b
5
9 G 1
R dB1
10 3
1.1b
1
5 R
1
10 R (2)
(b) 9 4 2
  M1 1.1b
10 5 3
12 (= 0.48)
 A1 1.1b
25
(2)
(c) 9 1 9 4 1 or  1 9 4 2
    1      M1 3.1b
10 5 10 5 3  10 10 5 3 
21 (= 0.42)
 A1 1.1b
50
(2)
(d)  15
9  9 
[P(Red from B|Red selected) ]  10
 50
M1 3.1b
1  
1
10    10  5  3 
9
10
1
5
9 4 13
25 
9
 A1 1.1b
26
(2)
(8 marks)
Notes
Allow decimals or percentages throughout this question.
B1: for correct shape (3 pairs) and at least one label on at least two pairs
G(reen) and R(ed)
allow G and G’ or R and R’ as labels, etc.
(a)
condone ‘extra’ pairs if they are labelled with a probability of 0
dB1: (dep on previous B1) all correct i.e. for all 6 correct probabilities on the
correct branches with at least one label on each pair
M1: Multiplication of 3 correct probabilities (allow ft from their tree diagram)
(b) A1: 12 oe
25
M1: Either addition of only two correct products (product of two probs +
product of three probs) which may ft from their tree diagram
(c) or for 1  (' 101 ' '(b) ')
A1: 21 oe
50
M1: Correct ratio of probabilities
or correct ft ratio of probabilities e.g. ' 10 ' ' 5 ' or ' 10 ' ' 5 ' with num < den
9 1 9 1

(d) 1  '(b) ' ' 101 ' '(c) '

A1: 9 (allow awrt 0.346)
26

13
 Question Scheme Marks AOs
14 132
 0.71739... awrt 0.717 B1 1.1b
184
(1)
(1 mark)
Notes
Allow fractions, decimals or percentages throughout this question.
Allow equivalent fraction, e.g. 33
46

14
 Qu 15 Scheme Marks AO
(a) c 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 B1 1.2
P(C = c) 1
9
1
9
1
9
1
9
1
9
1
9
1
9
1
9
1
9
B1ft 1.2
(2)
(b) P(C < 4) = 4
9
(accept 0.444 or better) B1 3.4
(1)
(c) Probability lower than expected suggests model is not good B1ft 3.5a
(1)
(d) e.g. Cloud cover will vary from month to month and place to place B1 3.5c
So e.g. use a non-uniform distribution (1)
( 5 marks)
Notes
(a) 1 B1 for a correct set of values for c. Allow  18 , 82 ,... 88
st

2nd B1ft for correct probs from their values for c, consistent with discrete uniform distrib’n
Maybe as a prob. function. Allow P(X = x ) = 19 for 0 x 8 provided x = {0, 1, 2, …, 8} is
clearly defined somewhere.

(b) B1 for using correct model to get 94 (o.e.)

SC Sample space {1, …, 8} If scored B0B1 in (a) for this allow P(C < 4) = 3
8 to score B1 in (b)

(c) B1ft for comment that states that the model proposed is or is not a good one based on
their model in part (a) and their probability in (b)
|(b) – 0.315| > 0.05 Allow e.g. “it is not suitable”; “it is not accurate” etc
|(b) – 0.315| 0.05 Allow a comment that suggests it is suitable
No prob in (b) Allow a comparison that mentions 50% or 0.5 and rejects the model
No prob in (b) and no 50% or 0.5 or (b) > 1 scores B0
Ignore any comments about location or weather patterns.

(d) B1 for a sensible refinement considering variations in month or location

Just saying “not uniform” is B0
Context & “non-uniform” Allow mention of different locations, months and non-uniform
or use more locations to form a new distribution with probabilities based on frequencies
Context & “binomial” Allow mention of different locations, months and binomial
Just refined model Model must be outlined and discrete and non-uniform
e.g. higher probabilities for more cloud cover or lower probabilities for less cloud cover
Continuous model Any model that is based on a continuous distribution. e.g. normal is B0

15
 Question Scheme Marks AOs

16(a) P( S  D) = 0 B1 1.1b

(1)
0.27 9
(b) P (C | S  D ) = = = 0.45 M1 3.1b
0.6 20
80  "0.45" M1 1.1b

=36 A1 1.1b

(3)

(c) [ P(C )  P( S ) = P(C  S ) ]

P( S ) = 0.6 , P(C ) = 0.27 + v + u , P( S  C ) = 0.27 M1 3.1a

0.6  ( 0.27 + u + v ) = 0.27 or u + v = 0.18 o.e A1 1.1b
 P( D  C ) 
 P( D | C ) = P(C )  P( D  C ) = 0.27 + v M1 3.1a
 
14 0.27 + v
= or 14u − v = 0.27 o.e A1 1.1b
15 0.27 + v + u
15u = 0.45 M1dd 1.1b

u = 0.03 v = 0.15 A1 1.1b

w = 0.22 A1ft 1.1b

(7)

(11 marks)

Notes:

(a) B1: correct answer only

(b) M1: for a correct ratio of probabilities formula with at least one correct value and multiplying by
80
A1: a correct answer
(c) M1: for translating the problem and realising the equation P(C )  P( S ) = P(C  S ) needs to be
used with at least 2 parts correct.
A1: a correct equation
M1: for a correct probability formula with P( D  C ) = 0.27 + v
A1: a second correct equation
M1dd: dependent on the previous 2 method marks being awarded. Solving the two simultaneous
equations by eliminating one variable. May be implied by either u or v correct
A1: u correct
A1: v correct
A1ft: w = 0.22, ft their u, v provided that u + v + w < 0.4

16
 Question Scheme Marks AOs

17 e.g. It requires extrapolation so will be unreliable (o.e.) B1 1.2

(1)
(1 mark)
Notes:

B1: for a correct statement (unreliable) with a suitable reason

17
 Question Scheme Marks AOs

18(a) P( A B ) 0.33
P( A | B ) or M1 3.1a
P( B ) 0.55
3
= or 0.6 A1 1.1b
5
(2)
(b) e.g. P( A) P(B) 7
20
9
20
63
400 P( A B) 0.13 52
400
B1 2.4
or P( A | B ) 0.6 P(A ) 0.65
(1)
(c) B1 2.5
M1 3.1a
A1 1.1b

M1 1.1b

A1 1.1b
(5)
(d) P( B C ) 0.22 0.22 or 1 [0.56]
o.e. M1 1.1b
or 1 [0.13 0.23 0.09 0.11]
= 0.44 A1 1.1b
(2)
(10 marks)
Notes:
(a)
M1: for a correct ratio of probabilities formula and at least one correct value.
A1: a correct answer
(b)
for a fully correct explanation: correct probabilities and correct comparisons.
(c)
B1: for box with B intersecting A and C but C not intersecting A.( Or accept three
intersecting circles, but with zeros entered for A C and A B C )No box is B0
M1: for method for finding P( B C )
A1: for 0.09
M1: for 0.13 and their 0.09 in correct places and method for their 0.23
A1: fully correct
(d)
M1: for a correct expression – ft their probabilities from their Venn diagram.
A1: cao

18
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
19. (a) P(G1 ) + P( R1 ∩ G2 ) + P(Y1 ∩ G2 ) or P(GY) + P(GR) + P(RG) + P(YG) (o.e.) M1
1 r 1 y 1 1 r+y r+y
= + × + × = + or 2 × A1
64 64 63 64 63 64 64 × 63 64 × 63
1 63 2 × 63 1 1
= + or or + or M1
64 64 × 63 64 × 63 64 64
1
= or 0.03125 A1
32
(4)
r r −1 5
(b) P( R1 ∩ R2 ) = × = M1A1
64 63 84
r ( r − 1) =5 × 64 × 63 ÷ 84 =240 hence r 2 − r − 240 =0 or r 2 − r =240 (*) A1cso
(3)
(c) r − r − 240 =( r − 16 )( r + 15 ){=0} or 16 − 16 − 240 =256 − 256
2 2 M1
or 16
64 × 15
63 =
5
84
so r = 16 and rejecting – 15 (*) A1cso
(2)
(d) P( 1 red) = P(RG) + P(GR) + P(RY) + P(YR) + P(RR) or 2
252 + 2y
252 + 15
252
(o.e.)
M1,
16 48 16 48 47 37
or P( R1 ) + P( R1′ ∩ R2 ) or + × or 1  , = A1
64 64 63 64 63 84
P( R1 ∩ R2 ) 5
5  
Require: = 84 ,= or 0.135 M1, A1
P(at least one red) " 37
84 " 37
(4)
[Total 13]
Notes
(a) 1st M1 for at least 2 correct cases. May be in symbols or probs. May be in tree diagram
Use of r = 16 or y = 47 can score maximum of 1st M1 then A0M0A0
1st A1 for all cases and their assosciated probs added
2nd M1 for combining probabilities and using r + y = 63
2nd A1 for 321 or an exact equivalent (correct answer only 4/4)

(b) M1 for 64r × g(r ) =

... where g(r) is any linear function of r
st
1 A1 for any correct equation in r
nd
2 A1cso for correctly simplifying to the given equation with no incorrect working seen.
There should be at least 1 intermediate step seen

(c) M1 for correct factors or completing square or use of formula or substitution

A1cso for concluding r = 16 and rejecting – 15 (e.g. crossing out etc)

(d) 1st M1 for a correct expression for at least one red. May be in symbols or probs. or in a tree
1st A1 for 37
84
(o.e.) as a single fraction or awrt 0.440 [May be implied by correct answer]
2nd M1 for a ratio of probabilities (denom may be in symbols) with numerator of 845 (o.e.)
2nd A1 for 375 or an exact equivalent

19
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
20. (a) p = P( B  C ) = P(B)  P(C)  0.6  0.25 = 0.15 M1
q = [P(C) – p ] = 0.10 A1
(2)
(b) r = 1  0.08  [P(B)  q]  1  0.08  0.6  0.1 (o.e.) or 1 – 0.08 – (0.6+0.25 – p) M1
= 0.22 A1cao
(2)
(c) s = [P(A) – r ] = 0.28 B1ft
t = [ P(B) – p – s or use P( B  C)  s  0.6  0.75  "0.28" ] = 0.17 B1ft
(2)
(d) P( A)  P( B)  0.5  0.6  0.3 which is not equal to s (= 0.28) M1
So A and B are not independent A1
(2)
 s  p  or  0.6  t  ,=
("0.28" "0.15") or (0.6  "0.17")
(e) M1, A1ft
P( A  C ) or  P( A)  P(C )  or (r  s  p  q) 0.5  0.25

43
= 75 A1 (3)
[11]
Notes
(a) M1 for a correct expression
(using independence) for p or 0.15
A1 for q = 0.10 (both correct 2/2)

Mark (b) & (c) together

M1 for a correct expression for r using
(b)
P( B  C ). Can ft their q [0,0.32]
A1cao for r = 0.22 (correct ans only 2/2)

(c) 1st B1ft for s = 0.28 or 0.5 – their “0.22”

2nd B1ft for t = 0.17 or Fully correct Venn diagram will score the
0.6 – their “0.15” – their “0.28” first 6 marks
ALT Find t then s then r If text and VD disagree use text values
(c) 2nd B1 for t = 0.17 [ from 1 – 0.08 – P(A) – P(C)]
1st B1ft for s = 0.28 or P(B) – “0.17” – “0.15”
(b) M1 for r = P(A) – s and the A1 for 0.22
s = 0.3 They assume A and B are independent and get s = 0.3 [from P(A)  P(B)]
(c) 1st B0 for s = 0.3 BUT can get 2nd B1ft for either case in the scheme
(b) M1 for r = P(A) – s BUT then A0cao for r = 0.2

(d) M1 for a correct P(A)  P(B) = 0.5  0.6 or 0.3 and a clear comparison with their s(  0.3)
their s
Or calculation of P(A | B) = 157 or 0.467 or and comparison with P(A) = 0.5 (o.e.)
0.6
A1 dep. on M1 being earned and clear statement that A and B are not independent

SC s = 0.3 dep on 1st B1ft for s = 0.5 – 0.2 in (c); for correct calc. and conclusion seen (B1). On epen M0A1

(e) M1 for a correct ratio expression of probs: num. < den. Allow 1 – (0.08+their “t”) on den.
Any sight of multiplication on the numerator e.g. 0.6  0.75 is M0
1st A1ft for correct ratio or ft using their values in numerator but correct denominator.
2nd A1 for 75 43
or accept awrt 0.573

20
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
21.(a) [ P( B  R)  ] 0 B1
(1)
(b) P(B) = 0.27+0.33 = 0.6, P(D) = 0.27 + 0.15 + t , P( B  D) =0.27 M1
[P(B)  P(D) = P( B  D) gives] 0.6  (0.42  t )  0.27 M1
0.27
0.42  t  or 0.6t = 0.018 A1
0.6
t = 0.03 A1
(4)
(c) [ u = ] 1  (0.6  0.15  t ) M1
u = 0.22 A1ft
(2)
 P  D  R  B  0.27
(d)(i)   = or P( D | R  B)  P( D | B)  P( D) M1
 P  R  B   0.27  0.33
= 0.45 A1
 P  D   R  B    0.15
(ii)   = M1
 P  R  B   0.15  u
15
= A1
37
(4)
15
(e) 40  "0.45" and 37  " " M1
37
= 33 A1
(2)
[13 marks]
Notes
1st M1 for attempting 3 suitable probabilities, one involving t (at least 2 correct)
(b)
e.g. sight of 0.6, 0.27, 0.42 + t correctly labelled in terms of B,D,R or in a correct equation.
0.27
May see e.g. P(B|D) =
0.42  t
2nd M1 for using the independence to form a linear equation in t. ft their probs if stated.
1st A1 for solving leading to a correct equation as far as p + t = q or pt = q
nd
2 A1 for 0.03 or exact equivalent

(c) M1 for a correct expression for u . Allow their t or just letter t in a correct expression
A1ft for 0.22 (or exact equivalent) or ft their t. i.e. u = 0.25 – t provided u & t are probs
Can score M1A1ft provided their u + their t = 0.25 where u and t are both in [0, 1]

(d)(i) M1 for a correct numerical ratio of probabilities

A1 for 0.45 or exact equivalent (Answer only 2/2)
(ii) M1 for a correct numerical ratio of probabilities, ft their u, provided u is a probability
A1 for 15
37 or 0.405 or allow awrt 0.41 following a correct expression (Ans only 2/2)

M1 for a correct method for both 18 and 15 ft their 0.45 and their 15
37 provided both in [0,1]
(e)
NB P ( D)  77 is M0
A1 for 33 only
NB 27
33  40 = 32.7… which rounds to 33 but scores M0A0. (Ans only send to review)

21
 Question Scheme Marks
22. (a) B1
M1
A1
A1
B1

(5)
(b) '13'
or 0.1625 B1ft
80
(1)
(c) 28  30  11 2  3  4  8  13  17 (11  22) 47 M1 A1
or or 1   or 0.5875
80 80 80 80
(2)
(d) "17  8  13" "38"
"2  3  4" 38
or 80
"47"
or 1   (condone awrt 0.809) M1 A1cao
"47" 80 "47" 47
(2)
(e) 7 20
P(B|C )  , P(B ) 
28 80
7 28
P(C|B)  , P(C )  M1
20 80
7 20 28
P(B  C )  , P(B )  P(C ) 
80 80 80
P(B|C )  P(B ), P(C |B )  P(C ) these may be implied by correct conclusion M1
P( B  C )  P( B )  P(C ) this approach requires the product to be seen
So, they are independent. A1 (3)
(13 marks)
Notes
(a) B1 for 3 intersecting circles with 3 in the centre. Allow probs. or integers in diagram.
M1 for some correct subtraction e.g. at least one of 2, 4, 8 or for B: 20 – their(2+3+4) etc
A1 for 2, 4 and 8 (ignore labels)
A1 for 11, 13 and 17 (must be in compatible regions with 2, 4, 8 if no labels)
B1 for correct labels and 22 and box (Do not treat “blank” as 0 so can’t use 0 for ft in (c))

(c) M1 for a correct expression seen in (c) ( or ft their diagram). Correct ans M1A1
(d) M1 for denominator of 47 or ft their numerator from part (c) and numerator of 38 or
their (17 + 8 + 13) or (their 47) – their (2 + 3 + 4). Correct ans M1A1

(e) M1 for stating at least the required probs.& labelled for a correct test (can ft their diagram)
M1 for use of a correct test with B and C Must see product attempted for P( B  C ) test.
A1 for a correct test with all probabilities correct and a correct concluding statement.
NB M0M1A0 should be possible but A1 requires both Ms

22
 Question Scheme Marks
23. (a) To score 15 points, 2 correct and 1 not correct
0.6  0.6  0.4  0.6  0.4  0.6  0.4  0.6  0.6 or 3  (0.6  0.6  0.4) M1
A1cso
= 0.432 (*)
(2)
(b) 1 – (0.216 + 0.432 + 0.064) = 0.288 or 3´0.6´(0.4) 2 B1
(1)
(c) [(30, 0), (0, 30) or (15, 15)] 0.216'0.288''0.288'0.216  0.432  0.432 M1 A1ft
awrt 0.311 A1
(3)
(6 marks)
Notes
(a) M1 for 0.62  0.4 may be  by tree diagram with 0.6 & 0.4 but just 3  0.144 or 2  0.216 is M0
A1 cso for 3  0.6 2  0.4 (seen) and no incorrect working seen
(b) 36 27 54 36 8
0.288 or answer may be seen in table. [NB Fractions: , , and ]
125 125 125 125 125
Correct answers to (c), (d) and (e) score full marks for these parts.
 
(c) M1 for either 0.216  '0.288' = 0.062208 or 0.432  0.432 = 0.186624
(ft (b) provided their (b) is a probability)
972
1st A1ft for a fully correct expression 2nd A1 for awrt 0.311 or
3125
SC 6 questions 4 correct Award M1&1st A1 for 6C4 0.64  0.42 or 15 0.64  0.42

23
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
24 (a)
M1

A1

(2)

(b) 0.25  0.98, = 0.245 (or exact equiv. e.g. 49

200 ) M1A1
(2)
(c) 0.25  0.02  0.45  0.03  0.3  0.05, = 0.0335 (or exact equiv. e.g. 67
2000 ) M1A1
(2)
(d) 0.25  0.02  0.3  0.05 0.0335  0.45  0.03
[ P  J  L | B ] =
M1A1ft
or
0.0335 0.0335
 0.5970... awrt 0.597 (or 40
67 or exact equiv.) A1
(3)
Notes Total 9
Allow fractions or percentages throughout this question
(a) Allow 3+6 tree diagram with the 6 correct “end” probs and labels to get 2/2 (1st, 3rd, 5th gets M1)
M1 for (3+6) tree drawn with 0.25, 0.45, 0.02, 0.03, 0.05 on correct branches
A1 for 0.3, 0.98, 0.97, 0.95 on the correct branches and labels, condone missing B  s
Correct answer only scores full marks for parts (b), (c) and (d)
When using “their probability p” for M1 and A1ft they must have 0 < p < 1
(b) M1 for 0.25  ‘their 0.98’ o.e.
(c) M1 for 0.25  their 0.02  0.45  their 0.03  their 0.3  their 0.05 Condone 1 transcription error.
Or 1   0.25  their 0.98  0.45  their 0.97  their 0.3  their 0.95
(d) M1 for use of conditional probability with their (c) as denominator. Also exactly 2 products on
num’ and at least one correct (or correct ft) or their (c) – one of the products from their (c).
Ignore an incorrect expression inside their probability statement
0.25  their 0.02  their 0.3  their 0.05 their (c)  0.45  their 0.03 0.02
A1ft for or or
their(c) their (c) their (c)
40
A1 awrt 0.597 or exact fraction e.g. 67

24
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
25 (a) [ P( A)  1  0.18  0.22 ] = 0.6 (or exact equivalent) B1
(1)
(b) P  A  B   "0.6" 0.22 = 0.82 (or exact equivalent) B1ft
(1)
(c) Establish independence
x  P  A  B Use P( B )P( A | B )  P( A  B ) before or after 1st M1and
score marks for (d) (RH ver)
M1
x
 0.6 P( B )  [1  0.6]  0.22 Find P(B)
x  0.22
x  0.6 x  0.132 Use P(A  B )  P(A | B )P(B ) Use P( B)P( A)  P  A  B 
dM1
0.4 x  0.132 P(A  B )  0.6  0.55 P(A  B )  0.6  0.55
x = 0.33 (or exact equivalent) A1cso
(3)
(d) P( B )  0.55
P( B )  P( A)  0.55  0.6 or stating P(A) = P(A|B) [= 0.6] M1
= 0.33
P( B)  P( A)  P  A  B  or P(A) = P(A|B) A1cso
therefore (statistically) independent therefore (statistically) independent (2)
Total 7
Notes
(b) B1ft for their (a) + 0.22 or 1  P  A  B  Do not ft their (a) if it is > 0.78
NB 3 versions for (c). Check carefully that Ms are genuinely scored.
Look out for assuming independence and if you see P(B) = 0.55 check it is derived properly
x
1st M1 for a correct equation for x e.g.  0.6 or a correctly derived equation for P(B)
(c) x  0.22
2nd dM1 for solving to get in form kx = L or correct use of P(B) to find P( A  B ) [2nd or 3rd ver]
or P( A  B )  P( B )  0.22
A1cso for 0.33 Dep. on both Ms and no incorrect working seen.
(d) M1 for finding P( B )  P( A) = 0.33 (values needed) or stating P(A) = P(A|B) (= 0.6 not needed)
A1cso for a correct statement: P( B)  P( A)  P  A  B  or P(A) = P(A|B) and stating independent
NB The M1 in (d) using P( A  B ) requires P(B) = 0.55
There is no ft of an incorrect P(B)
Full marks in (d) is OK even if 0/3 in (c)

{This Venn diagram may be helpful.}

25
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
(Discrete) Uniform B1
26. (a)
(1)
(b) 1
(i) P(X = 10) = B1
10
9
(ii) P(X < 10) = B1
10
(2)
[ Total 3]
Notes
(a) B1 for seeing the word uniform
Condone “continuous” uniform

26
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
27. (a) P(A∩B) = P(A|B) × P(B)
2 1 1
P(A∩B) =  
5 2 5 M1 A1
(2)
(b) A B 2 intersecting circles and ‘P(A∩B)’ B1ft
3 and 3 B1
20 10
3 1 3 7 Box and 7 B1
20 5 10 20 20

(3)
 3 1 7
(c)  P(A)  20  5  = 20 or 0.35 B1ft

(1)
(d) 1
P(A  B )
P( B | A)   5 M1
P(A) 7
20
4
= A1 cao
7
(2)
(e) 0.3 B1ft
(1)
[Total 9]
Notes
2 1
(a) M1 for  or a correct probability product expression and one correct prob. Ans only 2/2
5 2
(b) 1st B1 for 2 intersecting circles labelled A and B and ft their prob. for intersection
Condone missing labels for 2nd and 3rd B marks
(c) B1ft for 0.35 (o.e.) if no Venn diagram or correct follow through from their diagram
or allow 0.35 (or correct ft) from correct working e.g. 0.65 – 0.5 + (a)
B0 for 0.35 if their diagram does not give 0.35 unless it comes from correct work
Don’t insist on P(A) =... but do not award for P  A  B   207

their (a)
(d) M1 for or a correct ratio of probabilities from their diagram
their (c)
NB incorrect use of P  A  B   207 scores M0 and num > denom scores M0
4
A1 for 7 only
(e)
B1ft for 0.3 or correct ft from their Venn diagram or ft from 13
20  their (c)

27
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
28. (a)
0.30 bike owner 117
500

car owner B1
0.78
273
(0.70) not bike owner 500
B1
0.85
(0.22) not car owner bike owner 187
1000 B1

(0.15) 33
not bike owner 1000

(3)
(b) P(car or bike but not both)= 0.78  0.70  0.22  0.85  0.733 M1 A1
(2)
(c) P(car  bike) 0.78  0.30 M1A1
[P(car|bike)] =  ,  0.555819....
P(bike) 0.78  0.30  0.22  0.85

awrt 0.556 A1
(3)
(d) P(bike)  0.78  0.30  0.22  0.85  0.421 , P(not bike) = 1 – 0.421 M1
0.421 0.579  0.579  0.421 dM1
= 0.487518 awrt 0.488 A1 (3)
[Total 11]
Notes
(a) 1st B1 for a (2+4) tree with 6 branches
2nd B1 for 0.78 with label
3rd B1 for 0.30 and 0.85 with label
(b) M1 for correct expression of follow through their correct tree branches
733
A1 for 0.733 or exact equivalent e.g. 1000 and allow 73.3%
1 product
(c) M1 for a correct expression correct ft or correct formula and
sum of 2 products
With at least 2 products correct or correct ft. Ratio must be smaller than 1
1st A1 for finding the denominator correctly. Fully correct expression or = 0.421 (oe)
2nd A1 for awrt 0.556 or exact equivalent e.g. 234 421 and allow 55.6%

(d) M1 for their P(bike)  (1  P(bike))

dM1 for  2
A1 for awrt 0.488

28
Question Scheme Marks
29. (a) 35 + 75
= 0.55 M1 A1
200
(2)
(b) 200 − 2
= 0.99 M1 A1
200
(2)
(c) 30
P(W ∩ C ) 30
⎡⎣ P (W | C ) ⎤⎦ = = 200 = = 0.375 M1 A1
P(C ) 80 80
200
(2)
(d) C F Allow diagrams with
64 9 intersections between F, M1
16 ((0) 1 C and H provided these B1 for 9, 1
(0)
are marked with 0. B1 for 77,33
33 B B1 for 64,16
(0) If their diagram indicates
77 extra empty regions do not
H treat a blank as 0. (4)

1 + 16 + 33
(e) = 0.25 M1 A1 (2)
200
(12 marks)
Notes
Correct answers only score full marks for each part
If a probability is not in [0, 1] award M0
(a) M1 for denominator of 200 and attempt to add 2 + 8 or 35 + 75 or 30 + 50
A1 for 0.55 or exact equivalent fraction e.g. 11
20

(b) M1 for a fully correct expression ( e.g. 1 − 0.01 )

A1 for 0.99 or an exact equivalent fraction

(c) M1 for a correct ratio or a correct formula and at least one correct prob (i.e. a correct num or
denom). BUT award M0 if num is P(W ) × P(C ) = 200 67
× 200
80
or if num>denom
A1 for 0.375 or 3/8 or any exact equivalent.

(d) M1 for a box and the 3 regions F, C and H labelled or implied and single set B labelled. There should
be no intersections between F, C and H unless marked by zeros. They may have 3
circles for F, C and B with H = F ′ ∩ C ′ etc. Condone lack of zero in the given diagram.
F 1st B1 for the 9 and 1 or 0.045 and 0.005 (o.e.) in the correct regions May have B in 3
H 2nd B1 for the 77 and 33 or 0.385 and 0.165 (o.e.) in the correct regions bits that are
C 3rd B1 for the 64 and 16 or 0.32 and 0.08 (o.e.) in the correct regions. disconnected.

(e) M1 for a numerator made up of their 1 + their 16 + their 33 and a denom of 200 and num < 200
Also allow sum of their probabilities (provided sum < 1)
A1 for 0.25 or any exact equivalent

29
Question Scheme Marks
30. (a) 3a + 2b = 0.7 M1
a + 2a + 3a + 4b +5b +1.8 = 4.2 or 6a + 9b = 2.4 M1
5b = 1 Attempt to solve M1
b = 0.2 cao B1
a = 0.1 cao B1
(5)

(b) [5k = 1 so] k = 0.2 B1 (1)

(c) P(Y = 1) = 0.1 B1
e.g. P(Y = 2) = F(2) – F(1) = 0.1 M1
y 1 2 3 4 5
Condone use of X(x) instead of Y(y) A1
P(Y = y) 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 Ignore incorrect or no label if table fully correct
(3)
(d) P(X = 1) × P(Y = 1) ,= 0.01 cao M1, A1 (2)
(11 marks)
Notes
Probabilities outside [0, 1] should be awarded M0
(a) 1st M1 for an attempt at a linear equation in a and b based on sum of probs. = 1
2nd M1 for an attempt at a second linear equation in a and b based on E(X) = 4.2 Allow one slip.
3rd M1 for an attempt to solve their 2 linear equations based on sum of probs and E(X) . Must reduce to
st nd
a linear equation in one variable. 1 B1 for b and 2 B1 for a. Answers only score B1B1 only
The 3rd M1 may be implied if M2 is scored and both correct answers are given.
ALT B1B1 for stating b and a.
1st M1 for showing that sum of probs. = 1
2nd M1 for showing that E(X ) = 4.2
3rd M1 for an overall comment “(therefore) a = …and b = …” No comment loses this mark.

(c) B1 for P(Y = 1) = 0.1

M1 for correct use of F(y) to find one other prob. Can ft their k if finding P(Y = y) for y >2
Can be implied by one other prob. correct or correct ft Look out for P(3) = 3k – 0.2 or P(4) = P(5) = k.
A1 for a fully correct probability distribution. Correct table only is 3/3

(d) M1 for a correct expression or answer ft their P(Y = 1) and their P(X = 1)
A1 for 0.01 or exact equivalent only
Don’t ISW here e.g. 0.1× 0.1 + 0.1× 0.1 or 2 × 0.1× 0.1 are M0A0

30
Question Scheme Marks
31. (a) [P(B) = 0.4, P(A) = p + 0.1 so] 0.4 × ( p + 0.1) = 0.1 or 0.4 × P(A) = 0.1 M1
1
p= − 0.1 p = 0.15 M1A1 (3)
4

(b) 5 ⎡ P( B ∩ C ) ⎤ 0.2 5 0.2

= =⎥ =
11 ⎢⎣ P(C )
or M1
⎦ 0.2 + q 11 P(C )
11× 0.2 = 5 × ( 0.2 + q ) dM1
q = 0.24 A1
r = 0.6 – (p + q) i.e. r = 0.21 A1ft (4)

(c) ⎡ P ( ( A ∪ C ) ∩ B ) ⎤ 0.3
⎢ ⎥= M1
⎣ P( B) ⎦ 0.4
= 0.75 A1 (2)
[9]
Notes
(a) 1st M1 for using independence in an attempt to form an equation in p or P(A)
2nd M1 for a correct attempt to solve their linear equation leading to p = …
A1 for 0.15 or exact equivalent

(b) 1st M1 for a clear attempt to use P(B|C) to form an equation for q or P(C). Assuming indep M0
2nd dM1 Dep. on 1st M1 for correctly simplifying to a linear equation in q or P(C)
e.g. accept 11× 0.2 = 5 × 0.2 + q or 5P(C) = 2.2
st
1 A1 for q = 0.24 or exact equivalent
2nd A1ft for 0.6 – their (p + q) Dependent on 1st M1 in (b) only.

(c) M1 for a correct ratio expression and one correct value (num < denom) or a fully correct ratio.
P ( A ∪ C ∩ B)
Allow with one probability correct but only if num < denom.
P( B)
A numerator of P( A ∪ C ) × P( B ) scores M0
A1 for 0.75 or an exact equivalent

31
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
b 1 3 5
Also allow b values 1,1,3,3,5,5 and B1
32. (a) 1 1 1
P(B = b) probabilities all 16 B1
3 3 3
(2)
(b) Discrete Uniform {distribution} B1
(1)

3
Notes
(a) 1st B1 for correctly identifying values of b as 1, 3, 5 or 1,1,3,3,5,5
2nd B1 for probabilities all = 13 or exact equivalent (or of course 6 cases of 16 )
Any correct probability distribution or probability function is 2/2. Must be in part (a)
(b) B1 for "Discrete Uniform" . Both words required.

32
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
33.
(a) P( A ∪ B) = 0.35 + 0.45 − 0.13 or 0.22 + 0.13 + 0.32 M1
= 0.67 A1
(2)
P( A′ ∩ B′) 0.33
(b) P( A′ | B′) = or M1
P( B′) 0.55
3
= or 0.6 A1
5
(2)
(c) P(B ∩ C ) = 0.45 × 0.2 M1
= 0.09 A1
(2)
Allow 1st B1 for 3 intersecting circles in
a box with zeros in the regions for B1
A∩C B1ft
(d)
Do not accept “blank” for zero B1
B1

(4)
(e) P( B ∪ C )′ = 0.22 + 0.22 or 1 − [0.56] or 1 − [0.13 + 0.23 + 0.09 + 0.11] o.e. M1
= 0.44 A1 (2)
12
Notes
NB May see Venn diagram for A and B only used for (a) and (b) but M marks are awarded for
correct expressions only. No ft from an incorrect diagram for M marks.
(a) M1 for attempt to use the addition rule. Correct substitution i.e. correct expression seen
A1 for 0.67 only. Correct answer only scores 2/2

(b) M1 for a correct ratio of probabilities or a correct formula and at least one correct prob
For a correct formula allow “1 − their (a)” instead of 0.33 but not for correct ratio case.
P( A′∩ B′ )
Do not award for assuming independence i.e. P( B′) = 0.650.55 ×0.55
is M0. M0 if num>denom
A1 for 3/5 or any exact equivalent.

(c) M1 for correct expression. Need correct values for P(B) and P(C) seen.
A1 for 0.09 or any exact equivalent. Correct answer only is 2/2

(d) No labels A, B, C in (d) loses 1st B1 but can score the other 3 by implication
B1 for box with B intersecting A and C but C not intersecting A. No box is B0
B1ft for 0.13 and their 0.09 in correct places. [ft P(B ∩ C ) from (c)]
B1 for any 2 of 0.22, 0.22, 0.11 and 0.23 correct
B1 for all 4 values correct

(e) M1 for a correct expression or follow through from their Venn diagram
NB P(B′) × P(C ′) = 0.55 × 0.8 is OK. Do not ft “blank” for zero and M0 for negative probs.
A1 for 0.44 only. Correct answer only is 2/2

33
Question Scheme Marks
Number
34 (a) (R and S are mutually) exclusive. B1
(1)

= + P (B ) – P ( A ∩ B )
(b) 2 1 M1
use of Addition Rule
3 4
= + P (B ) – × P (B )
2 1 1
use of independence
3 4 4 M1 A1

= P (B )
5 3
12 4
P (B ) =
5
9 A1
(4)
(c) 3 5 15 5 M1A1ft
P(A’∩B) = × = =
4 9 36 12
(2)
(d) 1
(1 - (b)) × 0.25 M1
P( B′ A ) = or P( B ′ ) or 9
0.25 1
4
4
= A1
9
(2)
Total 9
NOTES
(a) B1 for ‘(mutually) exclusive’ or ‘cannot occur at the same time’ seen or equivalent.
‘Intersection is zero’ or ‘no overlaps’ without further explanation is B0.
(b) M1 for use of Addition Formula, including an intersection, with at least one
probability substituted. Intersection must be explicitly considered for this mark.
Accept = + P (B ) – 0 for M1.
2 1
3 4
1
M1 for P(A∩B) = P(B)
4
A1 for completely correct equation or equivalent.
5
A1 for or exact equivalent..
9
Venn Diagram with 2 overlapping closed curves and correct values possibly without
1
, award M1M1A1.
3
(c) 3 2 1
M1 for x ‘their P(B)’ or ‘their P(B)’- P(A∩B) or P(AUB)-P(B) = −
4 3 4
3 5 8
Or P(A’∩B) = P(A’) + ‘their P(B)’ – P(A’UB) = + –
4 9 9
5
A1 for or follow through from their method. Accept exact equivalent.
12
Correct answer only with no working M1A1 but must be clearly labelled (c).

34
(d) M1 for using 1-‘their P(B)’ or (P(A ∪ B) – P(A))/P(A) or (P(A) – P(A∩B))/P(A)
with a correct attempt at the numerator and denominator. If mutually exclusive is
1
assumed then the last option gives 4 for M1.
1
4
4
A1 for or exact equivalent.
9
For part (c) follow through their stated values; do not follow through incorrectly

labelled regions on a Venn Diagram.

Throughout the question we require probabilities between 0 and 1 for method marks.

Venn Diagram:

35
Question Scheme Marks
Number
35 (a)
3 closed curves and 25 in correct place M1
15,10,5 A1
R S 15,3,20 A1
15
15 3 Labels R, S ,C and box B1
25
10 5
7

20
C

All values/100 or equivalent fractions award accuracy marks. (4)

(b) 7/100 or 0.07 M1 for (‘their 7’in diagram or here)/100 M1 A1
(2)
(c) (3+5)/100 = 2/25 or 0.08 M1A1
(2)
(d) (25+15+10+5)/100 = 11/20 or 0.55 M1 A1
(2)
(e) P ( S ∩ C′ ∩ R ) M1
P ( S ∩ C′ R ) =
65
Require denominator to be ‘their 65’ or ‘their ’
P( R) 100
15
= require ‘their 15’ and correct denominator of 65
65 A1

3 A1
= or exact equivalents.
13
(3)

Total 13
NOTES
(b) M1 for ‘their 7’/100 seen.
A1 Correct answer only
In parts (c) and (d) we require “/100” for methods to be awarded. Also check their
values and award correct method if they follow from their Venn Diagram.
(c) 8
M1 For (‘their 3’+’their 5’)/100. award M0.
48
A1 Correct answer only or equivalent.
(d) M1 Accept sum of their 4 values from the Venn diagram /100.
A1 Correct answer only or equivalent
(e) M1 Attempt to use correct formula for conditional probability.
Award for correct formula and a denominator of ’their 65’ or ‘their 65/100’.
A1 for ‘their 15’/65 only.
A1 for exact equivalent answers, including 15/65.
In all parts correct answers with no working award full marks.

36
Question
Scheme Marks
Number

36.
(a) P( J ∪ K ) = 1 − 0.7 or 0.1 + 0.15 + 0.05 = 0.3 B1
(1)
P(K) = 0.05 + 0.15 or “0.3” – 0.25 + 0.15 or “0.3” = 0.25 +P(K) – 0.15
(b) M1
May be seen on Venn diagram
= 0.2 A1
(2)
P( K ∩ J )
(c) [ P( K | J )] = M1
P( J )
0.15
= A1
0.25
3
= or 0.6 A1
5
(3)
(d) P( J ) × P( K ) = 0.25 × 0.2(= 0.05), P( J ∩ K ) = 0.15 or
M1
P ( K | J ) = 0.6, P ( K ) = 0.2 or may see P(J|K) = 0.75 and P(J) = 0.25
not equal therefore not independent A1ft
(2)
(e) Not independent so confirms the teacher’s suspicion or they are linked B1ft
(This requires a statement about independence in (d) or in (e)) (1)
(9 marks)
Notes
M1 for a complete method, follow through their 0.3, leading to a linear equation for
(b)
P(K)
NB You may see this Venn diagram. J K
A correct diagram (Venn or table) implies M1 in (b)
Need not include box or 0.7 0.10 0.15 0.05

Correct answer only is 2/2

In parts (c) and (d) they must have defined A and B 0.7
(c) M1 for a correct expression (including ratio) in symbols.
1st A1 for a correct ratio of probabilities (if this is seen the M1 is awarded by implication)
Must be in (c). Condone no LHS but wrong LHS (e.g. P(K) or P(J|K)) is M0A0
nd
2 A1 for correct answer as printed only. Correct answer only 3/3

Mark (d) and (e) together

(d) M1 for a correct comparison of known probabilities for an independence test - ft their
values. E.g. P( J ) × P( K ) with P( J ∩ K ) or P(K|J) with P(K) [Must have
expressions]
The values of these probabilities should be given unless they are in the question or
stated elsewhere.
A1ft for correct calculations and correct comment for their probabilities

(e) B1ft ft their conclusion on independence so not independent confirms

teacher…independent contradicts teacher.
Methods leading to negative probabilities should score M0

37
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
37. 2
(a) 15

2 1 B1
both ,
3 3
1
6

1 4
B1
6 9

4 3 2
both , B1
45 5 5

⎛1⎞
⎜ ⎟
⎝9⎠
4 4 5
all three of , , B1
9 9 9
(4)
1 2
1 2 1 2 2 B1 for × (oe) seen at least B1 M1 A1
(b) P ( A) = P ( RR ) + P(YY ) = × + × " " = 2 5
2 5 2 5 5 (3)
once
M1 for at least 1 case of 3 balls
(c) P(B) = P(RRR) + P(RYR) + P(YRR) + P(YYR) M1
identified. (Implied by 2nd M1)
⎛1 2 2 ⎞ ⎛1 3 5⎞ ⎛1 3 5⎞ ⎛1 2 4 ⎞ 5
⎜ × × " " ⎟ + ⎜ × × ⎟ + ⎜ × " "× ⎟ + ⎜ × " "× " " ⎟ = (*) M1,A1cso
⎝2 5 3 ⎠ ⎝2 5 9⎠ ⎝2 5 9⎠ ⎝2 5 9 ⎠ 9
(3)
M1 for identifying both cases and +
(d) P( A ∩ B) = P ( RRR ) + P(YYR) probs. M1
may be implied by correct expressions
⎛1 2 2⎞ ⎛1 2 4⎞ 2
= ⎜ × × ⎟+⎜ × × ⎟ = (*) A1cso
⎝2 5 3⎠ ⎝ 2 5 9⎠ 9
(2)
(e) P( A ∪ B) = P ( A ) + P ( B) − P( A ∩ B) Must have some attempt to use M1
2 5 2 11
= " "+ − = A1cao
5 9 9 15
(2)

38
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
37. (f) 1 2 2 Probabilities must
× × come from the M1
P(RRR ) 2 5 3 6
= = product of 3 probs. A1ft
P( RRR) + P(YYY ) ⎛ 1 2 2 ⎞ ⎛ 1 2 5 ⎞ 11
⎜ × × ⎟+⎜ × × ⎟ from their tree A1 cao
⎝2 5 3⎠ ⎝2 5 9⎠ diagram.
(3)
[17]
Notes
M1 for both cases, and +, attempted, ft their values from tree diagram. May be 4 cases
(b)
of 3 balls.

(c) 2nd M1 for all 4 correct expressions, ft their values from tree diagram. A1 is cso

M1 for clear attempt to use the correct formula, must have some correct substitution. ft
(e)
their (b)

(f) M1 for identifying the correct probabilities and forming appropriate fraction of probs.
1st A1ft for a correct expression using probabilities from their tree
Accept exact decimal equivalents. Correct answer only is full marks except in (c) and
(d)

39
Question Scheme Marks
Number
38 (a) 2/3 H
R P(R) and P(B) B1
5/12 1/3 T
½ H 2nd set of probabilities B1
7/12 B
½ T
(2)

5 2 7 1 41 M1 A1
(b) P(H) = × + × ,= or awrt 0.569
12 3 12 2 72
(2)

5 ×2
20
(c) P(R|H) = 12 3
41 "
,= or awrt 0.488 M1 A1ft A1
" 72 41
(3)

2 2
⎛ 5⎞ ⎛7⎞
(d) ⎜ ⎟ +⎜ ⎟ M1 A1ft
⎝ 12 ⎠ ⎝ 12 ⎠
25 49 74 37 A1
= + = or or awrt 0.514 (3)
144 144 144 72
Total 10

(a) 1st B1 for the probabilities on the first 2 branches. Accept 0.416& and 0.583&
1.5
2nd B1 for probabilities on the second set of branches. Accept 0.6& , 0.3& , 0.5 and
3
Allow exact decimal equivalents using clear recurring notation if required.

(b) M1 for an expression for P(H) that follows through their sum of two products of probabilities from their
tree diagram

(c) 5
P( R ∩ H ) P( R ∩ H ) 12
Formula M1 for with denominator their (b) substituted e.g. = award M1.
seen P( H ) P( H ) (their (b) )
5 2
Formula ×
probability × probability 12 3.
not seen M1 for but M0 if fraction repeated e.g.
their b 2
3
1st A1ft for a fully correct expression or correct follow through
2nd A1 for 20 41
o.e.

2 2
⎛ 5⎞ ⎛7⎞
(d) M1 for ⎜ ⎟ or ⎜ ⎟ can follow through their equivalent values from tree diagram
⎝ 12 ⎠ ⎝ 12 ⎠
1st A1 for both values correct or follow through from their original tree and +
2nd A1 for a correct answer
5 4 7 6
Special Case × or × seen award M1A0A0
12 11 12 11

40
Question Scheme Marks
Number
39 (a) 2+3 5 1 M1 A1cso
= = (** given answer**) (2)
their total their total 6
(b) 4+ 2+5+3 14 7 M1 A1
, = or or 0.46& (2)
total 30 15
B1
(c) P( A ∩ C ) = 0 (1)

6+3 9 M1 A1
(d) P(C reads at least one magazine) = = (2)
20 20
10 1 9 3 3 1 3
(e) P(B) = = , P(C ) = = , P( B ∩ C ) = = or P(B|C) = M1
30 3 30 10 30 10 9

1 3 1 3 1
P( B) × P(C ) = × = = P( B ∩ C ) or P(B|C) = = =P(B) M1
3 10 10 9 3

So yes they are statistically independent A1cso

(3)

Total 10

(a) 2+3 5
M1 for or
their total 30

(b) M1 for adding at least 3 of “4, 2, 5, 3” and dividing by their total to give a probability
Can be written as separate fractions substituted into the completely correct Addition Rule

(c) B1 for 0 or 0/30

(d) 20
M1 for a denominator of 20 or leading to an answer with denominator of 20
30
9
only, 2/2
20

(e) 1st M1 for attempting all the required probabilities for a suitable test
2nd M1 for use of a correct test - must have attempted all the correct probabilities.
Equality can be implied in line 2.
A1 for fully correct test carried out with a comment

41
Question Scheme Marks
Number

40 (a)
1
3
Red
1
3 Blue
1
Red
2 1 Green
3
M1
1
2
3
Red A1
4 Blue A1
1 Green (3)
3
2
1 3 Red
4 Green
1 Blue
3

(b) ⎛1 1⎞ ⎛1 1⎞ 1 M1 A1
P(Blue bead and a green bead) = ⎜ × ⎟ + ⎜ × ⎟ = (or any exact
⎝ 4 3⎠ ⎝ 4 3⎠ 6
equivalent)
(2)
Total [5]
40 (a) M1 for shape and labels: 3 branches followed by 3,2,2 with some R, B and G seen
Allow 3 branches followed by 3, 3, 3 if 0 probabilities are seen implying that 3, 2, 2 intended
Allow blank branches if the other probabilities imply probability on blanks is zero
Ignore further sets of branches
1 A1 for correct probabilities and correct labels on 1st set of branches.
st

2nd A1 for correct probabilities and correct labels on 2nd set of branches.
(accept 0.33, 0.67 etc or better here)

(b) M1 for identifying the 2 cases BG and GB and adding 2 products of probabilities.
⎛1 1⎞ ⎛1 1⎞
These cases may be identified by their probabilities e.g. ⎜ × ⎟ + ⎜ × ⎟
⎝ 4 3⎠ ⎝ 4 3⎠
1
NB 6 (or exact equivalent) with no working scores 2/2

Special
Case
With Replacement (This oversimplifies so do not apply Mis-Read: max mark 2/5)
(a) B1 for 3 branches followed by 3, 3, 3 with correct labels and probabilities of 2 , 14 , 14 on each.
1

(b) M1 for identifying 2, possibly correct cases and adding 2 products of probabilities but A0 for
wrong answer
⎡⎛ 1 1 ⎞ ⎛ 1 1 ⎞ ⎤ 1 1
⎢⎜ 4 × 4 ⎟ + ⎜ 4 × 4 ⎟ ⎥ will be sufficient for M1A0 here but 4 × 2 +… would score M0
⎣⎝ ⎠ ⎝ ⎠⎦

42
Question Scheme Marks
Number

41 (a)

S D 3 closed curves and 4 in centre M1

Evidence of subtraction M1

41 31 11 31,36,24 A1
41,17,11 A1
Labels on loops, 16 and box B1
4
36
24

17
16

N
(5)
(b) 16 4
P(None of the 3 options)= = B1ft
180 45 (1)
(c) 17
P(Networking only)= B1ft
180
(1)
(d) 4 1
P(All 3 options/technician)= = M1 A1
40 10 (2)
Total [9]
41 (a) 2nd M1 There may be evidence of subtraction in “outer” portions, so with 4 in the centre then 35, 40
28 (instead of 31,36,24) along with 33, 9, 3 can score this mark but A0A0
N.B. This is a common error and their “16” becomes 28 but still scores B0 in part (a)

(b) B1ft 16
for 180 or any exact equivalent. Can ft their “16” from their box. If there is no value for their
“16” in the box only allow this mark if they have shown some working.

(c) B1ft ft their “17”. Accept any exact equivalent

(d) If a probability greater than 1 is found in part (d) score M0A0

P(S ∩ D ∩ N )
M1 for clear sight of and an attempt at one of the probabilities, ft their values.
P(S ∩ N )
4 1
Allow P(all 3 | S ∩ N ) = or to score M1 A0.
36 9
Allow a correct ft from their diagram to score M1A0 e.g. in 33,3,9 case in (a): 444 or 111 is M1A0
A ratio of probabilities with a product of probabilities on top is M0, even with a correct formula.
4 1
A1 for or or an exact equivalent
40 10
4 1
Allow or to score both marks if this follows from their diagram, otherwise some
40 10
explanation (method) is required.

43
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
1
42 (a) L
5
1 C Correct tree B1
⎛4⎞ NL
All labels B1
2 ⎜5⎟2
⎝ ⎠ L Probabilities
1 5
on correct
6 B branches B1
⎛3⎞ NL
1 ⎜5⎟
3
1 ⎝ ⎠
10 L
F
⎛ 9 ⎞
⎜ 10 ⎟ NL
⎝ ⎠
(3)
1 1 1
(b)(i)
× = or equivalent M1 A1
3 10 30
(2)
1 4 1 3 1 9
(ii) CNL + BNL + FNL = × + × + × M1
2 5 6 5 3 10
4
= or equivalent A1
5
(2)
P( F ′ ∩ L)
(c) P( F ′ / L) = Attempt correct conditional probability but see notes M1
P( L)
1 2 1 1
× + × numerator A1
= 6 5 2 5
denominator A1ft
1 − (ii )
5
5
= 30 = or equivalent cao A1
1 6 (4)
5 [11]
Notes
Exact decimal equivalents required throughout if fractions not used e.g. 42(b)(i) 0.03&
Correct path through their tree given in their probabilities award Ms
42(a) All branches required for first B1. Labels can be words rather than symbols for
second B1. Probabilities from question enough for third B1 i.e. bracketed
probabilities not required. Probabilities and labels swapped i.e. labels on branches and
probabilities at end can be awarded the marks if correct.
42(b)(i) Correct answer only award both marks.
42(b)(ii) At least one correct path identified and attempt at adding all three multiplied
pairs award M1
42(c) Require probability on numerator and division by probability for M1.Require
numerator correct for their tree for M1.
Correct formula seen and used, accept denominator as attempt and award M1
No formula, denominator must be correct for their tree or 1-(ii) for M1
1/30 on numerator only is M0, P(L/F’) is M0.

44
Question
Scheme Marks
Number

43(a) (i) P(A ∪ B) = a + b cao B1

(ii) P(A ∪ B) = a + b − ab or equivalent B1

(2)
(b ) P (R ∪ Q) = 0.15 + 0.35
= 0.5 0.5 B1
(1)
(c) P(R ∩ Q) = P(R|Q) × P(Q)
= 0.1 × 0.35 M1

= 0.035 0.035 A1

(2)

(d) P (R ∪ Q) = P(R) + P(Q) − P(R ∩ Q) OR P(R) = P(R∩ Q′) + P(R ∩ Q) M1

= 0.15+their (c)
0.5 = P(R) +0.35 – 0.035 = 0.15 + 0.035
P(R) = 0.185 = 0.185 0.185 A1
(2)
[7]
Notes
43(a) (i) Accept a + b - 0 for B1
Special Case
If answers to (i) and (ii) are
(i) P(A)+P(B) and (ii) P(A)+P(B)-P(A)P(B)
award B0B1
43(a)(i) and (ii) answers must be clearly labelled or in correct order for marks to
be awarded.

45
Question
Scheme Marks
Number

44 E = take regular exercise B = always eat breakfast

(a) P( E ∩ B) = P( E | B) × P( B) M1
9 2 6 18
= × = 0.24 or or A1 (2)
25 3 25 75
(b)
2 2 6 M1
P( E ∪ B) = + − or P( E ′ | B′) or P( B′ ∩ E ) or P( B ∩ E ' )
3 5 25
62 13 12 32 A1
= = = =
75 25 75 75 M1 A1 (4)
13
P( E ′ ∩ B′) = 1 − P( E ∪ B) = or 0.173&
75
(c) 6 2 2 M1
P(E | B) = 0.36 ≠ 0.40 = P( E ) or P( E ∩ B) = ≠ × = P( E ) × P( B) A1 (2)
25 5 3
So E and B are not statistically independent
[8]

(a) M1 for 9
×2 or P(E|B) × P(B) and at least one correct value seen. A1 for 0.24 or exact equiv.
25 3
NB 2×2 alone or 2× 9 alone scores M0A0. Correct answer scores full marks.
5 3 5 25

(b) 1st M1 for use of the addition rule. Must have 3 terms and some values, can ft their (a)
Or a full method for P(E’|B’) requires 1 - P(E|B’) and equation for P(E|B’): (a) + 3x = 2
5
Or a full method for P( B′ ∩ E ) or P( B ∩ E ' ) [ or other valid method]
2 M1 for a method leading to answer e.g. 1 − P( E ∪ B)
nd

or P( B′) × P( E ′ | B′) or P( B′) − P( B′ ∩ E ) or P( E ′) − P( B ∩ E ′)

Venn Diagram 1st M1 for diagram with attempt at 2
5
− P( B ∩ E ) or 2
3
− P( B ∩ E ) . Can ft their (a)
st
1 A1 for a correct first probability as listed or 32, 18 and 12 on Venn Diagram
2nd M1 for attempting 75 - their (18 +32 + 12)
(c)
M1 for identifying suitable values to test for independence e.g. P(E) = 0.40 and P(E|B) = 0.36
Or P( E ) × P(B ) = ... and P( E ∩ B) = their (a) [but their (a) ≠ 52 × 23 ]. Values seen somewhere
A1 for correct values and a correct comment

Diagrams You may see these or find these useful for identifying probabilities.

Common Errors
(a) 259 is M0A0
53
(b) P(EUB)= 75 scores M1A0
1 - P( E ∪ B) = scores M1A0
22
75

(b) P( B ′) × P( E ′) = 13 × 53
scores 0/4

46
Question Scheme Marks
Number
45
(a)
Positive Test
0.95

Disease
0.02
(0.05) Negative Test

Positive Test
0.03
(0.98) No Disease

(0.97) Negative Test

Tree without
probabilities or labels M1
0.02(Disease), 0.95(Positive) on correct branches A1
0.03(Positive) on correct branch. A1
[3]
(b) P(Positive Test) =0.02 × 0.95 + 0.98 × 0.03 M1A1ft
= 0.0484 A1
[3]
(c) 0.98 × 0.03
P( Do not have disease Postive test) = M1
0.0484
= 0.607438.. awrt 0.607 A1
[2]
(d) Test not very useful OR
High probability of not having the disease for a person with a positive test B1
[1]
Total 9
Notes:
(a) M1:All 6 branches.
Bracketed probabilities not required.
(b) M1 for sum of two products, at least one correct from their diagram
A1ft follows from the probabilities on their tree
121
A1 for correct answer only or
2500
(c) M1 for conditional probability with numerator following from their tree and
denominator their answer to part (b).
147
A1 also for .
242

47
Question Scheme Marks
Number

46
(a)

A B

30 3 12
3 closed intersecting curves M1
10 with labels
100 100 100,30 A1
25 12,10,3,25 A1
Box B1
[4]
100
20

(b) 100 + 100 + 10 + 25 235 47

P(Substance C) = = = or exact equivalent
M1A1ft
300 300 60
[2]
(c) 10 10
P( All 3 A) = = or exact equivalent
30 + 3 + 10 + 100 143 M1A1ft
[2]
(d) 20 1
P(Universal donor) = = or exact equivalent M1A1 cao
300 15
[2]
Total 10
Notes:
(a) 20 not required. Fractions and exact equivalent decimals or percentages.
(b) M1 For adding their positive values in C and finding a probability
A1ft for correct answer or answer from their working
(c) M1 their 10 divided by their sum of values in A
A1ft for correct answer or answer from their working
(d) M1 for ‘their 20’ divided by 300
A1 correct answer only

48
47. Diagram may be drawn with B ⊂ ( A ∪ C ) or with the 0 for B ∩ ( A ∪ C )′ simply left blank
(a)

A B
Accept
decimals
or probs. 1 2 0 3cc M1
in Venn 90,3,2,1 A1
diagram 1,(0),2 M1A1
90 1 outside A1
3 1 Box B1
(6)
C

(b) P(none)=0.01 B1ft

(1)
(c) P(A but not B)=0.04 M1 A1ft
(2)
(d) P(any wine but C)=0.03 M1A1ft
(2)
(e) P(exactly two)=0.06 M1A1ft
(2)
P(C ∩ A) 93 31
(f) P(C A) = =, or or AWRT 0.969 M1A1ft,A1
P( A) 96 32
(3)
Total 16 marks
(a) 1st M1 for 3 closed, labelled curves that overlap. A1 for the 90, 3, 2 and 1
2nd M1 for one of 1, 0 or 2 correct or a correct sum of 4 values for A, B or C
2nd A1 for all 7 values correct. Accept a blank instead of 0.
NB final mark is a B1 for the box not an A mark as on EPEN
In parts (b) to (f) full marks can be scored for correct answers or correct ft

(b) B1ft Follow through their ‘1’from outside divided by 100 For M
(c) M1 for correct expression eg P( A ∪ B ) − P( B) or calculation e.g. 3 + 1 or 4 on top marks in
(c) to (e)
A1 for a correct probability, follow through with their ‘3+1’ from diagram they
(d) M1 for correct expression or calculation e.g. 1+2+0 or 99-96 or 3 on top must
A1 for a correct probability, follow through their ‘2+1+0’ from diagram have a
(e) M1 for a correct expression or calculation e.g. 3+2+1 or 6 on top fraction

(f) M1 for a correct expression upto “,” and some correct substitution, ft their values.
One of these probabilities must be correct or correct ft. If P(C) on bottom M0
1st A1ft follow through their A ∩ C and their A but the ratio must be in (0, 1)
2nd A1 for correct answer only. Answer only scores 3/3, but check working P( A ∩ C )/P(C ) is M0

49
 1 1 1
48.(a) P ( R = 3 ∩ B = 0) = × , = M1, A1
4 4 16
(2)
(b)

3 0 3 6 9

2 0 2 4 6

All 0s B1
1 0 1 2 3 All 1,2,3s B1
All 4,6,9s B1
(3)
0 0 0 0 0

B
R 0 1 2 3

7 1
(c) a= ,b = c = d = B1, B1 B1
16 16
(3)

Total 8 marks

(a) M1 for 1
4 × 14
(c) 1st B1 for 7
16 ,
nd
2 B1 for only one error in b, c, d ( b = c = d ≠ 161 or b = c = 161 ≠ d etc), 3rd B1 all of b, c, d = 161

50
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
B1: At least 4 different pairs (ignore
49.(a) 44, 46, 48, 66, 68, 88 B1B1
incorrect extras)
NB 64 is the same as 46, 84 is the same as B1: 6 different pairs with no incorrect
(2)
48, 86 is the same as 68 extras
x 4 5 6 7 8 B1
1 3 3 3 1 1 3 1 B1
 2    2  2
2 10 10 10 2 5 10 5 M1
(b)
M1A1
P(X  x ) 1 3 29 3 1
4 10 100 25 25
B1: 4,5,6,7,8 only no extras or omissions
1 3 1
B1: Writing or using P( X  4)  , P( X  6)  and P(X  8)  May be seen in(a)
2 10 5
M1: A correct method for one of P(5), P(6) or P(7) may be implied by correct answer
M1: A correct method for two of P(5), P(6) or P(7) may be implied by correct answer
A1: fully correct table/list -need 4,5,6,7, 8 and their associated probabilities
(5)
n n
 24   24 
M1: 1     0.9 or    0.1 oe
 25   25 
n n seen or used
 24   24  may use = or  instead of <
(c) 1     0.9 or    0.1 oe M1
 25   25  = or  instead of >
n
 24 
Do Not award    0.1 oe
 25 
A1: Ignore any n >, n <, n= etc. Award
n > 56.4 if you see awrt 56.4 may be implied A1
by n = 57
A1: cao n = 57 or 57 on its own. Do not
allow n > 57 or n < 57. Do not award if
n = 57 A1
alternative values are given. You must
check there is no incorrect working
Alternative – trial and error
50 0.87 0.13 Allow
51 0.865 0.125 awrt
52 0.88 0.12
53 0.885 0.115
54 0.89 0.11 M1 at least 2 trials for 50  n  60 M1
55 0.894 0.106 shown with correct probabilities
56 0.898 0.102
57 0.902 0.098 A1
58 0.906 0.094 A1 trial for n = 56 and 57 shown with
59 0.91 0.09 correct probabilities
60 0.94 0.086
A1: cao n = 57 or 57 on its own. Do not
A1
n = 57 allow n > 57 or n < 57. Do not award if
(3)
alternative values are given
Total 10

51
 Question
Scheme Marks
Number
Notes
50 NB: If there is a fully correct table award full marks.
P(10) = 0.2, P(20) = 0.4 and P(50) = 0.4 B1: using P(10) = 0.2 (p) P(20) = B1
0.4(q) and P(50) = 0.4(r) may be seen
in calculations or implied by
a correct probability.
Median 10, 20, 50 B1: three correct medians and no B1
extras.
P(Median 10) = M1: allow if ( p  q  r ) =1 and use
0.23 + 3 0.22  0.4 + 3 0.22  0.4 p3 + 3  p 2  q + 3  p 2  r
or
or
0.23 + 3 0.22  0.8 p 3 + 3  p 2  (q  r )
1 6 6
look for  
125 125 125
P(Median 50) = M1: allow if ( p  q  r ) =1 and use
0.43 + 3 0.42  0.2 + 3 0.42  0.4 r3 + 3 r 2  p + 3 r 2  q See
or
or below
0.43 + 3 0.42  0.6 r 3 + 3 r 2  ( p  q) for how
to award
8 12 24
Look for  
125 125 125

P(Median 20) = M1: allow if ( p  q  r ) =1 and use

3 0.2  0.4 + 6  0.2  0.4  0.4 + 0.4 +
2 3
3  p  q 2 + 6  p  q  r + q3 +
3 0.42  0.4 3 q2  r
12 24 8 24
  
125 125 125 125
How to award the M marks – Allow the use of 1, 2 and 5 for the medians for the
method marks
M1 any correct calculation (implied by correct answer) for P(m = 10) or
P(m = 20) or P(m = 50)
M1 any 2 correct calculations (implied by 2 correct answers) P(m = 10) or
P(m = 20) or P(m = 50)
M1 any 3 correct calculations (implied by 3 correct answers) for P(m = 10) and P(m =
20) and P(m = 50) or
3 probabilities that add up to 1 providing it is 1 – their 2 other calculated
1 2 2
probabilities. Do not allow
5 5 5
NB if they do not have a correct answer their working must be clear including the
addition signs.

median 10 20 50 A1: awrt any 1 correct A2

0.104 0.544 0.352 A2: awrt all 3 correct
These do not need to be in a table as
13 68 44
Or Or Or long as the correct probablity is with
125 125 125 the correct median(10, 20 & 50)
NB: Do Not allow the use of 1,2 and
5 for the medians for the A marks

52
 Question
Scheme Marks
Number
51(a) (5,5,5) or (1,5,5) or (2,5,5) B1

(5,5,5) (5,5,1) (5,1,5) (1,5,5) (5,5,2) (5,2,5) (2,5,5) B1

or (5,5,5) and (5,5,1) ( × 3) and (5,5,2) ( × 3) (2)
51(b) 27
(5,5,5) = 0.027 B1
1000
135 27
(5,5,1) 3 or = 0.135 M1
1000 200
54 27
(5,5,2) 3 = = = 0.054
1000 500
27
P(M = 5) = 3 +3 = 0.216 oe A1A1
125 (4)
51(c) P( M = 1) = (0.5)3 + 3(0.5)2 (0.2) + 3(0.5)2 (0.3) M1
= 0.5 A1

P (M = 2) = 3 3 6 M1
71
= 0.284 or oe A1
250
m 1 2 5 A1
P(M = m) 0.5 0.284 0.216 (5)
Total 11
marks
Notes
st
51(a) 1 B1 for two of the given triples, any order
2nd B1 for all 7 cases. no incorrect extras
51(b)
B1 0.027 oe. This can be a single term in a summation

M1 either "3" or "3" oe. May omit the 3 or have

another positive integer in place of the 3. These may be seen as a single
term in a summation
A1 3 +3 oe
A1 0.216 oe
51(c) 1st M1 correct calculation for P(M = 1) or P(M = 2), working must be shown
and not implied by a correct answer.
1st A1 either P(M = 1) or P(M = 2) correct
2nd M1 correct calculation for both P(M = 1) and P(M = 2), or their probabilities
adding up to 1, but do not allow probabilities of 0.5, 0.2 and 0.3
2nd A1 both P(M = 1) and P(M = 2) correct
3rd A1dep on both M marks awarded. All three values written down with their
correct probabilities. They must be in part (c) but they do not need to be in a
table.
NB A fully correct table with no working will get M0 A0 M1 A1 A0.

53
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
52.
(a) (1, 1, 1), (5, 5, 5), (1, 5, 5), (1, 5, 1) B1
(1,1,1); (5,5,5); (1, 5, 5); (5, 1, 5); (5, 5, 1) (5, 1, 1); (1, 5, 1); (1, 1, 5) B1
(2)
(b) r : 0 and 4 B1
9 1 18 2
P(R = 0) = or P(R = 4) = or M1d A1
27 3 27 3
(3)
[5]
Notes
(a) 1st B1 for any two of the triples
2nd B1 for all 8 cases. No incorrect extras – condone repeats. Allow (1, 5, 5) (x 3) and (1, 1,
5) (x 3) instead of writing all three cases down

(b) B1 for both values of r

M1 d dependent on previous B1. For an attempt to evaluate one of the probabilities for r
3 3 2 2
⎛ 2⎞ ⎛1⎞ ⎛1⎞ ⎛ 2⎞ ⎛1⎞ ⎛ 2⎞
correctly e.g. for r = 0; ⎜ ⎟ + ⎜ ⎟ and for r = 4; 3 × ⎜ ⎟ × ⎜ ⎟ + 3 × ⎜ ⎟ × ⎜ ⎟ Working
⎝ 3⎠ ⎝ 3⎠ ⎝ 3⎠ ⎝ 3⎠ ⎝ 3⎠ ⎝ 3⎠
must be shown.
A1 for both values of r and their correct corresponding probabilities. Allow awrt 0.333
and 0.667

NB Correct answer with no working will gain B1M0A0

54
Question Scheme Marks
Number
31 Attempt to write down combinations at least one seen M1

(1,1,1), (1,1,2) any order (1,2,2) any order, (2,2,2) no extra combinations A1

Range 0 and 1 0 and 1 only B1

[P(range = 0) =] (0.65)3 + (0.35)3 either range M1

127 A1cao
= 0.3175 or
400

[P(range = 1) =] (0.35)2(0.65) × 3 + (0.65)2(0.35) × 3

273 A1cao
= 0.6825 or
400
(6)

Total 6
Notes

First M1 may be implied by either (0.65)3 or (0.35)3or (0.65)2(0.35) or (0.35)2(0.65)

First A1 may be implied by (0.65)3 and (0.35)3 and (0.65)2(0.35) and (0.35)2(0.65)
No need for x3
2nd M1 (p)3 + (1 – p)3 or (1 – p)2(p) × 3 + (p)2(1 – p) × 3
254
A1 for 0.3175 cao or exact equivalent e.g
800
546
A1 for 0.6825 cao or exact equivalent e.g
800
NB These probabilities do not need to be associated with the correct range

55